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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, February 14, 2011

2011 ZiPS Projections - Philadelphia Phillies

With apologies to Giants fans (as everyone knows, I’m very mild-mannered and don’t like to offend), the Phillies are the team to beat in the National League.  The merits of the front 4 is obvious enough for Murray Chass to get and while there are individual players on the offense that are a bit overrated, the team’s been really good at adding some quality minor leaguers - guys like Matt Miller and Brandon Moss shouldn’t start, but they should be hanging around in the event of an emergency.  And with 7 of 8 starters (whether Brown or the less ideal Mayberry/Francisco globulation) being 30 or older for the 2011 season, it’s nice to have some Plan Bs.  Shortstop’s probably the exception, but most teams usually have that issue.

Even though they are probably the favorites, it’s not always sunny in Philadelphia.  The Ryan Howard contract still hasn’t started and whereas most teams worry about the back end of 9-figure contracts, the Howard deal is already a concern (or at least should be) in year 0.  There’s a lot of talent at the lower levels, but it’s going to take a few years to get to Philadelphia.  The bullpen’s really short an impact arm - it’s full of OK relievers and one of the leading causes of heart attack.  If the Phillies are going to continue what is likely their best run in history over the next few years, Amaro is going to have oversee somewhat of a transition from the older stars to the younger set - he’s played aggressive more than smart and that can come back and haunt you.

Next up:  Cubs

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Chase Utley       L    2B   32   .278 .381 .476 133 500  85 139  28   4  21  80  65  86  15   1  127
Ryan Howard       L    1B   31   .256 .345 .508 144 547  86 140  24   3  36 120  71 176   3   1  124
Domonic Brown     L    RF   23   .280 .336 .467 143 490  71 137  26   6  18  80  43 123  20  10  112
Mike Sweeney      R    1B   37   .280 .330 .462  61 186  25  52  10   0   8  34  13  20   2   0  109
Raul Ibanez       L    LF   39   .265 .336 .473 134 491  71 130  31   4  21  82  55 103   4   2  113
Shane Victorino   B    CF   30   .276 .337 .437 150 591  88 163  30  10  15  65  49  72  30   8  105
Ben Francisco     R    LF   29   .268 .327 .445 117 355  48  95  25   1  12  49  28  69  11   4  104
Jimmy Rollins     B    SS   32   .264 .323 .426 123 512  72 135  30   7  13  63  44  53  26   4   98
Carlos Ruiz       R    C    32   .267 .360 .403 114 345  38  92  24   1   7  45  46  47   2   2  104
Delwyn Young      B    RF   29   .267 .318 .426 117 277  36  74  16   2   8  37  20  69   1   0   95
Placido Polanco   R    3B   35   .290 .331 .388 132 549  75 159  27   3   7  56  30  40   5   1   92
Matt Miller       R    RF   28   .280 .340 .388 137 535  63 143  25   3   8  70  48 100   3   1   86
Tagg Bozied       R    1B   31   .245 .314 .419  98 351  45  86  20   1  13  48  32  97   2   2   94
Brandon Moss      L    RF   27   .248 .308 .429 146 483  65 120  28   4  17  76  39 129   5   5   93
Jeff Larish       L    1B   28   .234 .321 .405 116 393  46  92  20   1  15  54  47 117   3   2   92
Ross Gload        L    1B   35   .269 .316 .394 102 216  27  58  10   1   5  30  14  25   1   1   88
Matthew Rizzotti  L    1B   25   .253 .327 .386 124 446  46 113  27   1  10  54  47 129   1   1   90
Erik Kratz        R    C    31   .232 .300 .415  82 284  34  66  20   1  10  41  23  74   7   2   88
Cesar Hernandez   B    2B   21   .276 .329 .329  95 380  45 105  16   2   0  27  29  49  32   9   77
John Mayberry     R    RF   27   .239 .293 .406 141 503  62 120  27   3  17  61  34 130  11   3   84
Brian Schneider   L    C    34   .245 .328 .368  70 204  19  50   8   1   5  28  25  33   0   0   86
Rich Thompson     L    CF   32   .246 .298 .341 118 431  54 106  17   6   4  38  27  78  22   3   71
Wilson Valdez     R    SS   33   .264 .313 .334 120 368  46  97  14   3   2  31  25  43   8   3   73
Harold Garcia     B    2B   24   .249 .296 .360 128 511  56 127  21   6   8  58  25 138  30  14   74
Josh Barfield     R    2B   28   .256 .277 .349  93 332  36  85  17   1   4  34  10  61   6   3   65
Joel Naughton     L    C    24   .247 .292 .334  82 287  28  71  11   1   4  33  19  62   1   1   67
Melvin Dorta      R    2B   29   .254 .293 .345 115 397  45 101  17   2   5  34  21  46  10   9   70
Pete Orr          L    3B   32   .229 .276 .353 130 433  51  99  19   7   7  38  22  92  15   7   66
Carlos Rivero     R    SS   23   .241 .280 .342 142 544  49 131  25   3   8  61  31 112   1   2   65
Tuffy Gosewisch   R    C    27   .225 .291 .328  96 329  34  74  20   1   4  28  26  76   0   1   65
Freddy Galvis     B    SS   21   .244 .280 .323 152 569  62 139  17   5   6  50  28 108  13   7   61
Paul Phillips     R    C    34   .239 .286 .313  54 176  15  42   8   1   1  14  11  25   0   0   60
Chris Duffy       L    LF   31   .216 .275 .328  57 204  25  44  10   2   3  23  14  59   6   3   61
Michael Martinez  B    2B   28   .232 .271 .336 122 453  53 105  19   5   6  46  21  89  13   9   61
Robb Quinlan      R    1B   34   .231 .289 .286  58 147  14  36   6   0   1  11  11  29   2   1   62
Dane Sardinha     R    C    32   .198 .237 .321  74 237  22  47   9   1   6  27  11  75   0   0   47
Brian Bocock      R    SS   26   .204 .275 .272 120 412  47  84  15   2   3  33  41 118  12   9   47

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Chase Utley                          EX/107
Ryan Howard                  FR/170
Domonic Brown                                                 AV/72  AV/141   VG/72
Mike Sweeney                 PO/113
Raul Ibanez                                                   FR/79
Shane Victorino                                                       AV/58  AV/113
Ben Francisco                                                 AV/79   PO/89  FR/106
Jimmy Rollins                                         AV/57
Carlos Ruiz              AV
Delwyn Young                         FR/108  AV/124          AV/121          AV/113
Placido Polanco                       VG/54   AV/55
Matt Miller                                                   AV/92  PO/110   FR/78
Tagg Bozied                  FR/120          PO/137          FR/124          FR/118
Brandon Moss                 AV/121                          AV/119  PO/109   FR/49
Jeff Larish                   FR/98          PO/107          PO/112
Ross Gload                    FR/72                          PO/126          PO/126
Matthew Rizzotti             FR/140
Erik Kratz               FR
Cesar Hernandez                      FR/111
John Mayberry                AV/113                           AV/64  FR/103   AV/69
Brian Schneider          AV
Rich Thompson                                                VG/111  VG/111  VG/111
Wilson Valdez                        FR/100  AV/107   AV/55  AV/114
Harold Garcia                        FR/112  FR/110
Josh Barfield                        VG/113  AV/130           AV/98  FR/117
Joel Naughton            FR
Melvin Dorta                 AV/110  FR/126  AV/116  PO/120  AV/101          AV/107
Pete Orr                             AV/117   FR/88  FR/108  AV/113   FR/97   AV/97
Carlos Rivero                                        AV/125
Tuffy Gosewisch          AV
Freddy Galvis                                         AV/99
Paul Phillips            AV
Chris Duffy                                                   AV/97  FR/109  AV/103
Michael Martinez                     FR/148          FR/125  AV/107  FR/111
Robb Quinlan                 AV/112          PO/123          FR/108          FR/114
Dane Sardinha            AV
Brian Bocock                                         VG/108

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Cliff Lee         L      32     3.03    16    6   28   28   205.0  192   69   16   29  174   138
Roy Halladay      R      34     3.03    20    7   30   30   222.7  208   75   21   33  192   138
Roy Oswalt        R      33     3.38    14    7   30   29   186.3  167   70   18   46  156   124
Cole Hamels       L      27     3.47    14    8   32   32   202.3  183   78   24   53  198   121
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Joe Blanton       R      30     4.55     8    8   28   28   172.0  183   87   24   49  127    92
Austin Hyatt      R      25     4.77     8    9   28   26   137.7  145   73   16   60  116    88
Kyle Kendrick     R      26     4.78    10   11   32   29   167.7  185   89   21   51   79    88
Vance Worley      R      23     4.97     8   10   29   28   154.0  173   85   18   58   93    84
Nate Bump         R      34     5.13     4    5   14   13    66.7   80   38    8   23   27    82
Eddie Bonine      R      30     5.21     4    6   33   11    93.3  112   54   13   26   42    80
Josh Fogg         R      34     5.51     2    3   14    7    47.3   54   29    8   19   26    76
Brian Mazone      L      34     5.55     6    9   23   20   110.3  134   68   18   30   59    75
J.C. Ramirez      R      23     5.56     6    9   25   25   132.7  153   82   19   61   78    75
Drew Naylor       R      25     5.72     7   12   26   26   148.0  179   94   21   58   84    73
Andrew Carpenter  R      26     5.76     7   12   27   25   143.7  168   92   25   59   90    73
Ryan Feierabend   L      25     5.88     5    9   25   24   124.0  158   81   20   40   60    71
Phillippe Aumont  R      22     5.95     4    8   34   13    87.7   97   58   11   71   65    70
Joe Savery        L      25     6.22     5   11   27   22   127.3  160   88   18   71   65    67

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Ryan Madson       R      30     3.06     6    2   64    0    64.7   56   22    6   18   68   137
Jose Contreras    R      39     3.81     4    3   57    0    56.7   53   24    5   21   49   110
Antonio Bastardo  L      25     3.83     2    1   45    0    40.0   35   17    4   19   43   109
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Brad Lidge        R      34     3.93     2    2   57    0    52.7   45   23    6   29   60   106
Chad Durbin       R      33     3.99     3    2   61    0    70.0   64   31    7   33   61   105
Justin De Fratus  R      23     4.02     3    2   54    0    65.0   64   29    6   22   50   104
Michael Schwimer  R      25     4.12     5    4   45    0    54.7   51   25    6   27   54   102
Juan Perez        L      32     4.46     3    3   39    0    39.6   36   21    5   26   40    94
Scott Mathieson   R      27     4.54     2    2   33    0    37.7   35   19    5   20   37    92
Brian Gordon      R      32     4.56     3    3   38    3    73.0   78   37    8   24   49    92
Mike Zagurski     L      28     4.66     2    2   47    0    46.3   44   24    6   29   47    90
J.C. Romero       L      35     4.76     1    1   49    0    34.0   32   18    4   24   29    88
Dan Meyer         L      29     4.79     3    3   63    0    62.0   61   33    8   34   47    87
Danys Baez        R      33     4.85     3    4   51    0    52.0   53   28    6   24   33    86
Michael Stutes    R      24     4.91     3    4   55    0    62.3   59   34    8   43   55    85
David Herndon     R      25     5.12     3    4   49    0    58.0   67   33    7   20   31    82
Brian Bass        R      29     5.15     3    5   49    2    85.7   96   49   10   42   54    81

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Jimmy Rollins        .266  .321  .424  2231  9397  1393  2500   533   135   227  1021   740  1071   481    94
Placido Polanco      .298  .341  .403  1988  7695  1112  2293   383    40   115   790   424   548    89    95
Chase Utley          .276  .365  .472  1970  7434  1224  2054   419    52   311  1178   807  1193   177   118
Raul Ibanez          .279  .342  .472  2040  7212  1048  2012   431    54   285  1187   705  1284    51   113
Domonic Brown        .270  .334  .452  2127  7181  1025  1942   381    67   262  1154   698  1713   211   108
Ryan Howard          .262  .349  .516  1798  6796  1044  1782   316    38   445  1430   867  2009    27   124
Shane Victorino      .271  .331  .416  1777  6647   982  1800   327    92   152   696   516   779   292    96
Carlos Ruiz          .257  .344  .383  1208  3683   385   947   236    11    69   458   442   450    21    92

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Roy Halladay       258  129    1    3.38  492  466     3363 3282 1264  311  657 2572    131
Roy Oswalt         231  137    0    3.41  506  490     3191 3030 1209  303  776 2586    125
Cliff Lee          205  113    0    3.61  422  418     2838 2824 1137  278  558 2223    119
Cole Hamels        188  122    0    3.61  447  448     2839 2605 1139  372  753 2736    118
Joe Blanton        106   97    0    4.43  316  310     1943 2074  955  244  551 1321     95

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Chase Utley       2B     86%   9%   4%   1%   0%       Lou Whitaker        Solly Hemus     Dick McAuliffe
Ryan Howard       1B     29%  34%  17%  15%   6%        Nick Esasky     Jesse Barfield         Brad Hawpe
Domonic Brown     RF     16%  26%  19%  19%  20%       Junior Felix       Lloyd Moseby        Leon Durham
Mike Sweeney      1B     11%  23%  22%  30%  15%          Al Kaline          Andy Abad       Frank Thomas
Raul Ibanez       LF     19%  24%  18%  19%  20%     George Watkins      Bobby Bonilla      Luis Gonzalez
Shane Victorino   CF     36%  26%  22%  11%   4%       Steve Finley    Marquis Grissom        Brian McRae
Ben Francisco     LF      8%  20%  21%  25%  27%    Prentice Redman          Jeff Ball         Steve Brye
Jimmy Rollins     SS     39%  28%  22%   9%   2%      Scott Spiezio       Joe Redfield      Royce Clayton
Carlos Ruiz       C      22%  36%  23%  15%   4%       Rick Dempsey         Spud Davis       Rick Ferrell
Delwyn Young      RF      1%   6%  12%  24%  57%          Tim Costo         Doug Deeds        Dustan Mohr
Placido Polanco   3B      3%  11%  21%  32%  34%         Alvin Dark         Joe Stripp        Pie Traynor
Matt Miller       RF      0%   2%   4%  13%  81%       Kevin Romine      Jorge Padilla      Brian Horwitz
Tagg Bozied       1B      0%   4%   9%  30%  57%        Juan Thomas        Gene Schall      Deron Johnson
Brandon Moss      RF      1%   4%   8%  17%  70%        Jeff Liefer     Keith Williams     Oreste Marrero
Jeff Larish       1B      1%   4%   8%  27%  60%        Damon Minor      Chris Gimenez        Jeff Bailey
Ross Gload        1B      1%   2%   5%  22%  70%        Glenn Adams        Mark Kotsay     Larry Biittner
Matthew Rizzotti  1B      0%   3%   7%  27%  63%       Mario Valdez       Joe Vitiello        Don Barbara
Erik Kratz        C       6%  14%  19%  30%  30%      Ron Karkovice     Keith McDonald          Mike Rose
Cesar Hernandez   2B      8%  10%  14%  24%  44%      Cass Michaels     Edgar Renteria    Harold Reynolds
John Mayberry     RF      0%   3%   6%  15%  75%    Anthony Sanders        Matt Carson         Ray Sadler
Brian Schneider   C       6%  15%  19%  31%  28%        Jamie Quirk        Rick Cerone     Keith McDonald
Rich Thompson     CF      2%   3%  10%  26%  59%     Mark Budzinski        Tom Goodwin       Dave Roberts
Wilson Valdez     SS      2%   5%  15%  27%  51%      Jose Vizcaino      Edgar Caceres        Rey Sanchez
Harold Garcia     2B      3%   3%   6%  15%  73%        Bob Meacham      Carlos Garcia   Curtis Wilkerson
Josh Barfield     2B      0%   1%   1%   3%  95%      Chris Lemonis        Jace Brewer        Luis Garcia
Joel Naughton     C       1%   2%   4%  16%  76%       Roger Hansen         Mike Knapp     Edwin Bellorin
Melvin Dorta      2B      1%   1%   1%   4%  92%        Casey Smith        Rod Correia      Rene Gonzales
Pete Orr          3B      0%   0%   1%   3%  95%       Derek Wathan        Steve Hecht           Dan Rohn
Carlos Rivero     SS      1%   2%   5%  12%  80%      Sergio Santos         David Lamb       Ramon Castro
Tuffy Gosewisch   C       0%   1%   3%  10%  86%     Bill Dobrolsky         Brian Moon       Matt Garrick
Freddy Galvis     SS      1%   2%   4%   9%  84%        Dario Nunez   Curtis Wilkerson      Pedro Ciriaco
Paul Phillips     C       0%   0%   1%   7%  91%      Frank Charles        Chris Ashby     Kirt Manwaring
Chris Duffy       LF      0%   0%   0%   1%  99%    Kevin Koslofski        Lee Tinsley       Colin Porter
Michael Martinez  2B      0%   0%   1%   2%  97%      Shaun Skrehot     Pablo Martinez  Gary Miller-Jones
Robb Quinlan      1B      0%   0%   0%   0%  99%      Frank Charles       Dusty Wathan       Felipe Zayas
Dane Sardinha     C       0%   0%   1%   3%  96%     Charlie Greene       Chad Moeller      Jayhawk Owens
Brian Bocock      SS      0%   0%   0%   1%  98%     Chris Petersen         Brett King       Darrin Duffy

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Cliff Lee         SP      91%     8%     7%        John Smiley          Bob Ojeda        Frank Viola
Roy Halladay      SP      93%     4%     3%       Mike Mussina        Greg Maddux    Bret Saberhagen
Ryan Madson       RP      68%    26%     6%     Rollie Fingers        Gene Garber          J.J. Putz
Roy Oswalt        SP      70%    23%     7%        Doug Drabek       Steve Rogers     Curt Schilling
Cole Hamels       SP      68%    24%     8%      Pete Schourek     Atlee Hammaker      C.C. Sabathia
Jose Contreras    RP      34%    44%    22%           Ron Reed      Satchel Paige         Todd Jones
Antonio Bastardo  RP      33%    45%    22%      Chuck McElroy       Dennys Reyes        Randy Myers
Brad Lidge        RP      24%    48%    28%     Juan Berenguer         Ryne Duren       Tim Stoddard
Chad Durbin       RP      16%    58%    25%       Jose Alvarez          Ed Farmer       Toby Borland
Justin De Fratus  RP      24%    49%    27%      Manuel Corpas         Steve Olin       Jose Acevedo
Michael Schwimer  RP      20%    45%    35%     Cecilio Guante       Ray Krawczyk         Jeff Zaske
Juan Perez        RP      11%    28%    60%         Doug Creek        Kevin Tolar       Tim Fortugno
Scott Mathieson   RP      14%    32%    54%       Bo Donaldson     Mike Armstrong      Travis Phelps
Joe Blanton       SP      10%    55%    36%        Jeff Weaver         Ed Whitson          Jose Lima
Brian Gordon      RP       7%    37%    56%        Tom Brennan        Bob Stanley     Ramiro Mendoza
Mike Zagurski     RP       8%    30%    62%      Ricky Pickett      Brian Fuentes    Kevin Lovingier
J.C. Romero       RP      11%    30%    59%        Ron Villone        Kevin Tolar      Norm Charlton
Austin Hyatt      SP       9%    52%    40%      Pascual Perez        Bob Veselic Jason Isringhausen
Kyle Kendrick     SP       6%    44%    50%      Brian Meadows        Dave Eiland         Dave Geeve
Dan Meyer         RP       6%    36%    58%        Erick Burke          Ron Mahay  Brian Shackelford
Danys Baez        RP      10%    30%    61%        Pat Mahomes         Jim Slaton     Kirk Bullinger
Michael Stutes    RP       4%    27%    69%     Dave Shipanoff       Joe Borowski    Lariel Gonzalez
Vance Worley      SP       3%    37%    60%          Josh Fogg         Joe Housey       Sergio Mitre
David Herndon     RP       2%    24%    74%         Tim Kester        Brian Allen        Reid Santos
Nate Bump         SP       7%    28%    64%        Pat Ahearne       Walt Terrell      Brian Moehler
Brian Bass        RP       0%    11%    89%      Andy Mitchell      Jeff Heaverlo   Hansel Izquierdo
Eddie Bonine      SP       2%    16%    82%        Matt Ginter      Tim Harikkala        Jack Lamabe
Josh Fogg         SP       3%    15%    82%        Jeff Harris         Joe Haynes     Chris Nichting
Brian Mazone      SP       2%    15%    83%   Terry Mulholland        Darrell May     Scott McGregor
J.C. Ramirez      SP       0%    13%    87%       Nate Cornejo      Scott Rivette       Denny Wagner
Drew Naylor       SP       0%     7%    93%        Justin Lehr      Doug Waechter      Melqui Torres
Andrew Carpenter  SP       0%     7%    93%       Danny Tamayo     Kyle Middleton      Mark Nussbeck
Ryan Feierabend   SP       0%     4%    96%     Heath Phillips        Mike Ramsey   Bobby Livingston
Phillippe Aumont  SP       0%     2%    98%          Tim Meeks        Chris Clark        Eric Parent
Joe Savery        SP       0%     2%    98%     Bruce Lockhart       Larry Thomas   Mark Brandenburg

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Chase Utley             19%      55%      30%       1%       4%      13%      25%       6%
Ryan Howard              4%      15%      57%       0%       3%      76%      22%       0%
Domonic Brown           20%       8%      23%       1%      17%       5%       6%      10%
Mike Sweeney            28%      13%      23%       0%       0%       0%       6%       0%
Raul Ibanez             10%      11%      26%       4%       4%      12%      10%       0%
Shane Victorino         16%       9%       7%       3%      48%       2%       3%      47%
Ben Francisco           10%       5%       9%       0%       0%       0%       2%       3%
Jimmy Rollins            8%       3%       8%       3%      19%       3%       3%      29%
Carlos Ruiz             11%      30%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Delwyn Young            10%       3%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Placido Polanco         32%       5%       1%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Matt Miller             16%       7%       1%       1%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Tagg Bozied              2%       2%       4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brandon Moss             1%       1%       3%       1%       3%       1%       0%       0%
Jeff Larish              1%       3%       2%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Ross Gload              17%       4%       3%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Matthew Rizzotti         3%       4%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Erik Kratz               1%       1%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Cesar Hernandez         20%       8%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%      53%
John Mayberry            0%       0%       1%       0%       2%       2%       0%       1%
Brian Schneider          6%      11%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Rich Thompson            2%       0%       0%       0%      16%       0%       0%      34%
Wilson Valdez            9%       2%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Harold Garcia            2%       0%       1%       0%      15%       1%       0%      46%
Josh Barfield            1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Joel Naughton            4%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Melvin Dorta             3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Pete Orr                 0%       0%       0%       0%      23%       0%       0%       3%
Carlos Rivero            1%       0%       0%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Tuffy Gosewisch          0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Freddy Galvis            1%       0%       0%       0%      10%       0%       0%       4%
Paul Phillips            5%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Duffy              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Michael Martinez         0%       0%       0%       0%       7%       0%       0%       1%
Robb Quinlan             3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Dane Sardinha            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brian Bocock             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Cliff Lee                 69%        95%        33%        99%        93%
Roy Halladay              71%        96%        38%        99%        78%
Ryan Madson               64%        92%        88%        20%        77%
Roy Oswalt                35%        89%        26%        30%        75%
Cole Hamels               32%        91%        78%        22%        49%
Jose Contreras            27%        72%        44%         5%        70%
Antonio Bastardo          33%        71%        85%         1%        62%
Brad Lidge                17%        64%        97%         0%        62%
Chad Durbin               16%        62%        45%         0%        72%
Justin De Fratus          19%        67%        13%         4%        75%
Michael Schwimer          14%        57%        72%         0%        67%
Juan Perez                 7%        31%        72%         0%        42%
Scott Mathieson            9%        37%        66%         0%        37%
Joe Blanton                1%        29%         4%        11%        23%
Brian Gordon               5%        38%         1%         9%        55%
Mike Zagurski              5%        30%        79%         0%        49%
J.C. Romero               11%        32%        36%         0%        64%
Austin Hyatt               1%        24%        27%         0%        52%
Kyle Kendrick              2%        19%         0%         6%        42%
Dan Meyer                  4%        35%        18%         0%        59%
Danys Baez                 7%        33%         2%         1%        56%
Michael Stutes             3%        25%        39%         0%        49%
Vance Worley               0%        12%         0%         0%        48%
David Herndon              1%        21%         0%         9%        41%
Nate Bump                  1%        16%         0%        11%        55%
Brian Bass                 0%         6%         0%         0%        68%
Eddie Bonine               2%        13%         0%        22%        28%
Josh Fogg                  2%        14%         2%         4%        27%
Brian Mazone               0%         6%         1%        19%        17%
J.C. Ramirez               0%         2%         0%         0%        27%
Drew Naylor                0%         1%         0%         0%        25%
Andrew Carpenter           0%         1%         0%         0%         6%
Ryan Feierabend            0%         0%         0%         5%        12%
Phillippe Aumont           0%         1%         6%         0%        51%
Joe Savery                 0%         0%         0%         0%        26%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
New York Mets

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 14, 2011 at 06:35 AM | 53 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. danielj Posted: February 14, 2011 at 06:43 AM (#3749709)
Are you sure you have the right year for Sweeney? Nice rookie season for Brown.
   2. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 14, 2011 at 06:51 AM (#3749715)
Sweeney can still hit, he can't stay healthy if he plays in the field, and even if he did, he stinks in the field.
   3.     Hey Gurl Posted: February 14, 2011 at 07:27 AM (#3749725)
I have to say that if the Phillies Front Four (Phillies Phront Phour ... ? No.) "Only" meet those projections I will be somewhat disappointed. I mean that's a great performance, and would probably be the best in the league, but I want to see some records broken damn it.

Not that I would expect ZiPS to project records being broken, since it's going to look at the median, but .. well I'm not sure what my point is.
   4. Boxkutter Posted: February 14, 2011 at 07:32 AM (#3749727)
What do Werth's ZIPS look like with the Nationals (if you've done them)?
   5. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: February 14, 2011 at 07:53 AM (#3749730)
Jeez, that starting pitching is killer.

EDIT: Also, who the hell is Austin Hyatt?
   6. Quaker Posted: February 14, 2011 at 08:03 AM (#3749731)
Would you rather have $1 for each Phillies' win short of 100 (i.e. they win 92 and you get $8) or $10 for each win above 100? Friend and I made this bet. . .
   7. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: February 14, 2011 at 08:52 AM (#3749739)
Would you rather have $1 for each Phillies' win short of 100 (i.e. they win 92 and you get $8) or $10 for each win above 100? Friend and I made this bet. . .


The over.
   8.     Hey Gurl Posted: February 14, 2011 at 09:40 AM (#3749750)

Would you rather have $1 for each Phillies' win short of 100 (i.e. they win 92 and you get $8) or $10 for each win above 100? Friend and I made this bet. . .


If you take the under, your best case scenario is a negligible amount of money, and your worst case is paying a bunch.

If you take the over, your best case scenario is a decent amount of money, and your worst case is paying a negligible amount.

I don't get why this is an option.
   9. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: February 14, 2011 at 10:25 AM (#3749753)
So if they win 100 games, nobody gets any money. Is that how the bet works? And if they win 99, one guys gets 99 and the other nothing, but if they win 101, one guy gets 10 and the other nothing. Is that right? I'd take the 99 and lower side, I think.
   10. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: February 14, 2011 at 10:29 AM (#3749754)
Oh never mind. I completely misunderstood. What #8 said.
   11. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: February 14, 2011 at 11:21 AM (#3749756)
I don't get why this is an option.


Well, it's not THAT cut & dried, it all depends on how likely you think it is that the Phillies win are too win 100.

Just to illustrate, some random numbers (they don't make a whole lot od sense, but they're easy and I didn't want too waste too much time):

Prob Phillies < 100: 85% average 94 wins
Prob Phillies = 101: 5%
Prob Phillies = 102: 4%
Prob Phillies = 103: 3%
Prob Phillies = 104: 2%
Prob Phillies = 105: 1%

Your EV in that scenario is -1.5$ if you take the over. And uhm yeah, there is a 0% chance the Phillies actually end up with exactly 100 wins, or more than 105... But you get the picture.
   12. stevegamer Posted: February 14, 2011 at 11:50 AM (#3749757)
Since you've got Oswalt pegged for a relief appearance, any idea what his fielding rating in LF would be? :)
   13. stevegamer Posted: February 14, 2011 at 11:54 AM (#3749759)
Quaker, I hope you have the over - the under won't likely get you 2 good cheesesteaks & sodas. The EV for the over may benegative, but the expected utility is pretty decent, since a 102+ win good season pays you enough money to do something with.
   14. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: February 14, 2011 at 12:02 PM (#3749761)
Lenny Dykstra has had sex for negative money, so even if you lose, there are always checks to bounce!
   15. Honkie Kong Posted: February 14, 2011 at 12:24 PM (#3749763)
Actually a bit surprised by the Blanton projection. Forgot how crappy his previous year was.

Well above average pitching, above average offence. The key for them is going to be health.

And to continue in Plaschke mode, I am mighty surprised that they didn't make an offer for Soriano. Marginal value for the Phillies is probably pretty high on that signing.
   16. alkeiper Posted: February 14, 2011 at 12:44 PM (#3749766)
#5, Austin Hyatt is a 15th round pick from 2009 who has generally been old for his leagues, but has a career minor league K/9 of 11.8.

Eric Wordekemper shows up again. Why does he keep popping up on Phillies lists? He's very much a Yankee farm product. I'm guessing there's a programming snafu on baseball-reference that missed Scranton's franchise move.

Is it possible to get a projection for Savery as a hitter, or is there too small a track record? The Phillies moved him off the mound.
   17. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 14, 2011 at 01:20 PM (#3749773)
Roy Halladay 20-7 - Has ZiPS ever projected 20 wins before?

Mike Sweeney's comps are a hilarious example of how weird three-year comps can look. Al Kaline, Andy Abad, Frank Thomas. I remember Andy Abad - he made like five AAA All-Star teams in a row without ever projecting as a good major leaguer.

I really like the Lou Whitaker comp for Chase Utley. Utley's better, but the arrangement of skills is almost exactly the same.

Every one of Ryan Howard's top three comps was done as an MLB regular by the age of 31. That's about as bad a set of comparables as it is possible for a player to have. Now, this is a bit unfair, as Esasky's vertigo can hardly be figured in to the equation, Brad Hawpe still might put together a decent season soon, but ZiPS' career projection for Howard is truly terrible, and this must be the reason. Howard has put up a 140 OPS+ in 3700 AB so far in his career. In order to end his career with a 124 OPS+ in 6700 AB (with a 124 OPS+ in 550 AB this year), Howard needs to put up a 100 OPS+ over the final 2500 AB of his career. Basically, ZiPS thinks Howard's toast as a good player, starting in about 2012.
   18. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: February 14, 2011 at 01:52 PM (#3749779)
That's a rough projection for Ryan Howard. Ouch.

Also: Lee + Halladay: 427.7 innings, 62 BB
   19. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 14, 2011 at 01:54 PM (#3749780)
I know what the projection says, but I have a hard time imagining Brandon Moss as a "good" anything.
   20. Nasty Nate Posted: February 14, 2011 at 02:50 PM (#3749791)
The Ryan Howard contract still hasn't started and whereas most teams worry about the back end of 9-figure contracts, the Howard deal is already a concern (or at least should be) in year 0.


What does this even mean (besides that the Howard extension was unwise)? In what way should anyone associated with the Phillies worry about the contract or concern themselves with it this year? In fact, it is almost impossible for his contract to affect 2011 in any way whatsoever (given that a trade will not be happening).
   21. AndrewJ Posted: February 14, 2011 at 02:59 PM (#3749796)
The projections probably overrate Ibanez and Polanco a bit, and I suspect if Utley has a full season he might have one final MVP-caliber year. But the Fab Four going 64-28 sounds about right. Lidge won't return to his '08-level of performance -- given the strength of the rotation, he won't need to, either.
   22. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: February 14, 2011 at 03:23 PM (#3749798)
Thanks, #16. It's a decentish projection for someone I'd never heard of.
   23. Spivey Posted: February 14, 2011 at 03:41 PM (#3749812)
Would you rather have $1 for each Phillies' win short of 100 (i.e. they win 92 and you get $8) or $10 for each win above 100? Friend and I made this bet. . .

####### ash tray money bet, bro.
   24. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: February 14, 2011 at 04:16 PM (#3749838)
I have to say that if the Phillies Front Four (Phillies Phront Phour ... ? No.) "Only" meet those projections I will be somewhat disappointed. I mean that's a great performance, and would probably be the best in the league, but I want to see some records broken damn it.

I hear what you're saying, but 800+ innings with a 130 ERA+ would be pretty freaking great. In fact, it would be one of the top performances by a starting rotation in baseball history. The 1971 Orioles got ~1100 innings from their rotation, but the ERA+ was "only" about 115. The 1998 Braves probably had the best rotation in the last 100 years, and they had ~1100 IP from the top 5 with an ERA+ around 140 (I'm just eyeballing these stats).
   25. cgbb Posted: February 14, 2011 at 04:27 PM (#3749849)
Zips gives Brown a 72 error rate in RF after giving Justin Upton a 215, something is wrong!
   26. steagles Posted: February 14, 2011 at 04:40 PM (#3749858)
Would you rather have $1 for each Phillies' win short of 100 (i.e. they win 92 and you get $8) or $10 for each win above 100? Friend and I made this bet. . .
they're gonna win 117 games, so you might want to take the over and run.
   27. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: February 14, 2011 at 04:53 PM (#3749870)
Every one of Ryan Howard's top three comps was done as an MLB regular by the age of 31.


His top 3 BBREF comps are Richie Sexson, David Ortiz and Wilie McCovey
Sexson was still a regular after 30- but terrible
Otiz looked to be in rapid descent but had a nice bounceback last year at age 34
McCovey's peak was 30-32
next you get McGriff and Cecil Fielder
McGriff last along time, but after 30 most years he put up a 110-120 OPS+ (and for a 1B that's just another player)
McGwire, Mo Vaughn
Thin Carlos and Tino M...

I think ZiPs is right WRT Howard
   28. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: February 14, 2011 at 04:54 PM (#3749871)
good baseball team is good.
   29. RJ in TO Posted: February 14, 2011 at 05:02 PM (#3749884)
Also: Lee + Halladay: 427.7 innings, 62 BB

And the top 5 as a whole: 988.3 innings, 210 BB. That's only 1.9 BB/9 IP. The worst guy is at about 2.6 BB/9 IP, which is still significantly better than the 3.3 BB/9IP that the NL averaged, and would not be too far outside the NL Top 10.
   30. John DiFool2 Posted: February 14, 2011 at 05:05 PM (#3749888)
I really like the Lou Whitaker comp for Chase Utley. Utley's better, but the arrangement of skills is almost exactly the same.


But it will be Jeff Kent who will be Utley's HoF barometer. If Kent starts out around 10%, Utley won't have any chance either (with the BBWAA at least). If Kent gets 20-30%, that would bode well.
   31. AndrewJ Posted: February 14, 2011 at 05:09 PM (#3749894)
Domonic Brown's ZiPS projection look like a very strong Rookie of the Year candidate.
   32. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: February 14, 2011 at 06:07 PM (#3749937)
But it will be Jeff Kent who will be Utley's HoF barometer.


It will be Utley's longevity more than anything else, he's had a late start, if he declines when Robbie Alomar did he's not getting in, if he ages like Kent, then the Kent barometer may be useful- but I think he gets in anyway- since he's not gonna have Kent's problems (guilt by association and percolating belief among the MSM that Kent should be compared to LFs rather than 2Bs...)
   33. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: February 14, 2011 at 06:18 PM (#3749943)
I wonder what effect Davey Lopes' departure has on the SB/CS figures.
   34. Walt Davis Posted: February 14, 2011 at 07:35 PM (#3749983)
percolating belief among the MSM that Kent should be compared to LFs rather than 2Bs

Not sure what that means. There is the general HoF voter's seeming need to compare all 2B and 3B to LF but that doesn't single out Kent. Is it a reference to his rep as a poor fielder? Utley certainly doesn't have a rep as a poor fielder but he's also never won a GG so unless fancy defensive stats have won the day by the time he comes up for election (which they may have, we're talking 10+ years from now), his defense isn't going to play a significant role in his HoF case.

I'd also argue Kent has no guilt by association in the voters' minds. He was not a friend of Bonds's, in fact they openly argued that one time. Kent will have a hard time with the "that's a funny career arc, he must have been on roids" and the "I ain't voting for any hitter from that era except the ones I liked" crowd but otherwise I don't see him being tainted by the steroids era.
   35. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: February 14, 2011 at 07:54 PM (#3750002)
Not sure what that means. There is the general HoF voter's seeming need to compare all 2B and 3B to LF but that doesn't single out Kent.


I've seen at least three times now, comments to the effect that Kent's numbers don't look like a 2B's numbers, and he was not great shakes with the glove, so his number should not be comapred to guys like MAz(!) or even Alomar, but be compared to guys who played 1B...
   36. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 14, 2011 at 07:55 PM (#3750003)
Zips gives Brown a 72 error rate in RF after giving Justin Upton a 215, something is wrong!

Yes, they're supposed to be 172.
   37. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 14, 2011 at 08:02 PM (#3750008)
Howard's ZiPS comps are a gigantic bag of awful.

Nick Esasky
Jesse Barfield
Brad Hawpe
Carlos Pena
Leon Durham
Jim Gentile
Richie Sexson
Fred McGriff
Dick Stuart
Gus Zernial
Jay Buhner
Vic Wertz
Norm Cash
Greg Luzinski

All but a couple of these guys aged worse than the Macarena.
   38. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: February 14, 2011 at 08:13 PM (#3750022)
All but a couple of these guys aged worse than the Macarena.


I wasn't aware the Macarena had aged. I always assumed it had just spontaniously become extinct. Sigh, would have been to much to ask for, I suppose...
   39. The District Attorney Posted: February 14, 2011 at 08:24 PM (#3750033)
They actually played it at the Mets' Hispanic Heritage Night a couple years ago.

Alanis-ronically, if Minaya didn't fix the issue after that, I'm guessing Alderson will...
   40. Quaker Posted: February 14, 2011 at 08:46 PM (#3750055)
I have the under, guys. Sounds like most of you disagree with that choice.
   41. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: February 14, 2011 at 10:05 PM (#3750114)
Domonic Brown's ZiPS projection look like a very strong Rookie of the Year candidate.

The Phans are quite nervous, due to Brown's less than auspicious Aug-Sep callup. It sure looked like he could be handled inside. Supposedly new/old hitting coach Greg Gross already has it straightened out.
   42. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: February 14, 2011 at 11:10 PM (#3750183)
That rotation makes me really glad my team is in the AL. Though we do have to play Philly in Philly.
   43. zachtoma Posted: February 15, 2011 at 05:17 PM (#3750680)
Hall of Famers? Based on the extrapolations, Halladay and Oswalt should slide in, Cliff Lee has a case. No definites on the hitters, Utley, Howard, and Rollins all look like maybes.
   44. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: February 15, 2011 at 11:45 PM (#3751157)
Based on the extrapolations, Halladay and Oswalt should slide in, Cliff Lee has a case.


None will have 300 wins, 3000 Ks, ERAs below 3, etc. I can see the electorate ####### up at least one of these guys, if not all three.
   45. HCO Posted: February 16, 2011 at 02:32 AM (#3751289)
Man oh man do I hope you're right about Brown.
   46. Kiko Sakata Posted: February 16, 2011 at 03:48 AM (#3751330)
None will have 300 wins, 3000 Ks, ERAs below 3, etc. I can see the electorate ####### up at least one of these guys, if not all three.


Halladay's already got 2 Cy's, a playoff no-hitter, and a regular-season perfect game. If he gets to 250 wins (as ZIPs predicts), he'll get in easily. Oswalt, on the other hand, has always kind of slid a little under the radar in terms of how good he really is and pitching in the same rotation as Halladay and Cliff Lee probably isn't going to help that. I'd put his HOF odds well south of 50% (in terms of getting voted in; not in terms of deserving it).
   47. Walt Davis Posted: February 16, 2011 at 10:07 AM (#3751464)
Based on those career projections, Lee and Hamels are twins. If pitchers with 2800 IP and 118ish ERA+s start getting in ... you can't possibly keep Pettitte out (3055 IP, 117 ERA+, many more wins plus the post-season. Lee will have a peak argument I suppose.

I also like that Hamels ends up with 1 more GS than G. :-)

I also like ZiPS' projection of Howard adding speed as he ages -- more triples and SBs in the second half of his career. :-)
   48. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: February 17, 2011 at 12:59 AM (#3752017)
Halladay's a shoo-in. Oswalt and Lee are borderline. Utley has to age well to have a shot. Howard and Rollins will not sniff the Hall. I mean, seriously? Jimmy Rollins? It would be like voting for Raffy Furcal.
   49. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: February 27, 2011 at 06:33 PM (#3759130)
I don't think Lee has a chance.
He's 32, has 102 wins and a 112ERA+.
He'd need to repeat his last three years through age 40 to just get to 250 wins.
Say he gets to 230 wins with a 115ERA+. Is that enough?
Oswalt on the other hand has the peak/prime and just needs to stay the course for five more years.
If he can get to 225 wins with 125ERA+ 2500K he'd be at least comparable to Drysdale/Bunning and hard to keep out.
Halladay, as you said is a shoo-in and has already done enough.
   50. spike Posted: March 04, 2011 at 01:43 AM (#3763046)
So, what's with the decidedly mixed reports from scouts concerning Domonic Brown from Olney? Seems like I've heard it a time or two elsewhere as well. Is there real concern, or is this just noise?
   51. RJ in TO Posted: March 04, 2011 at 02:15 AM (#3763058)
I've seen expressions of concern on a couple occasions from scouts, but I've never seen any specific name attached to the source. A lot of it seems to be overreation to his less than stellar 67 PA in the majors at the end of the season.
   52. spike Posted: March 04, 2011 at 02:42 AM (#3763073)
His track record would indicate he's going to be just fine, which is why I was curious. Thanks.
   53. phatj Posted: March 04, 2011 at 03:01 AM (#3763081)
The comment about the bullpen is curious. Ryan Madson is absolutely an "impact arm" and Lidge may be a question mark, but he can still pile up K's, even with diminished stuff last year (though he's supposedly fully healthy now for the first time since 2008). Contreras was very good against righties and solid against lefties. Romero is a good LOOGY. And there are a couple of promising minor leaguers who could contribute this year if anyone falters or gets hurt.

All of this misses the fact, however, that the Phillies project to need their bullpen far less than most teams.

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