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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, February 14, 2011
2011 ZiPS Projections - Philadelphia Phillies
With apologies to Giants fans (as everyone knows, I’m very mild-mannered and don’t like to offend), the Phillies are the team to beat in the National League. The merits of the front 4 is obvious enough for Murray Chass to get and while there are individual players on the offense that are a bit overrated, the team’s been really good at adding some quality minor leaguers - guys like Matt Miller and Brandon Moss shouldn’t start, but they should be hanging around in the event of an emergency. And with 7 of 8 starters (whether Brown or the less ideal Mayberry/Francisco globulation) being 30 or older for the 2011 season, it’s nice to have some Plan Bs. Shortstop’s probably the exception, but most teams usually have that issue.
Even though they are probably the favorites, it’s not always sunny in Philadelphia. The Ryan Howard contract still hasn’t started and whereas most teams worry about the back end of 9-figure contracts, the Howard deal is already a concern (or at least should be) in year 0. There’s a lot of talent at the lower levels, but it’s going to take a few years to get to Philadelphia. The bullpen’s really short an impact arm - it’s full of OK relievers and one of the leading causes of heart attack. If the Phillies are going to continue what is likely their best run in history over the next few years, Amaro is going to have oversee somewhat of a transition from the older stars to the younger set - he’s played aggressive more than smart and that can come back and haunt you.
Next up: Cubs
Oracle on Twitter
Batting Projections
Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
Chase Utley L 2B 32 .278 .381 .476 133 500 85 139 28 4 21 80 65 86 15 1 127
Ryan Howard L 1B 31 .256 .345 .508 144 547 86 140 24 3 36 120 71 176 3 1 124
Domonic Brown L RF 23 .280 .336 .467 143 490 71 137 26 6 18 80 43 123 20 10 112
Mike Sweeney R 1B 37 .280 .330 .462 61 186 25 52 10 0 8 34 13 20 2 0 109
Raul Ibanez L LF 39 .265 .336 .473 134 491 71 130 31 4 21 82 55 103 4 2 113
Shane Victorino B CF 30 .276 .337 .437 150 591 88 163 30 10 15 65 49 72 30 8 105
Ben Francisco R LF 29 .268 .327 .445 117 355 48 95 25 1 12 49 28 69 11 4 104
Jimmy Rollins B SS 32 .264 .323 .426 123 512 72 135 30 7 13 63 44 53 26 4 98
Carlos Ruiz R C 32 .267 .360 .403 114 345 38 92 24 1 7 45 46 47 2 2 104
Delwyn Young B RF 29 .267 .318 .426 117 277 36 74 16 2 8 37 20 69 1 0 95
Placido Polanco R 3B 35 .290 .331 .388 132 549 75 159 27 3 7 56 30 40 5 1 92
Matt Miller R RF 28 .280 .340 .388 137 535 63 143 25 3 8 70 48 100 3 1 86
Tagg Bozied R 1B 31 .245 .314 .419 98 351 45 86 20 1 13 48 32 97 2 2 94
Brandon Moss L RF 27 .248 .308 .429 146 483 65 120 28 4 17 76 39 129 5 5 93
Jeff Larish L 1B 28 .234 .321 .405 116 393 46 92 20 1 15 54 47 117 3 2 92
Ross Gload L 1B 35 .269 .316 .394 102 216 27 58 10 1 5 30 14 25 1 1 88
Matthew Rizzotti L 1B 25 .253 .327 .386 124 446 46 113 27 1 10 54 47 129 1 1 90
Erik Kratz R C 31 .232 .300 .415 82 284 34 66 20 1 10 41 23 74 7 2 88
Cesar Hernandez B 2B 21 .276 .329 .329 95 380 45 105 16 2 0 27 29 49 32 9 77
John Mayberry R RF 27 .239 .293 .406 141 503 62 120 27 3 17 61 34 130 11 3 84
Brian Schneider L C 34 .245 .328 .368 70 204 19 50 8 1 5 28 25 33 0 0 86
Rich Thompson L CF 32 .246 .298 .341 118 431 54 106 17 6 4 38 27 78 22 3 71
Wilson Valdez R SS 33 .264 .313 .334 120 368 46 97 14 3 2 31 25 43 8 3 73
Harold Garcia B 2B 24 .249 .296 .360 128 511 56 127 21 6 8 58 25 138 30 14 74
Josh Barfield R 2B 28 .256 .277 .349 93 332 36 85 17 1 4 34 10 61 6 3 65
Joel Naughton L C 24 .247 .292 .334 82 287 28 71 11 1 4 33 19 62 1 1 67
Melvin Dorta R 2B 29 .254 .293 .345 115 397 45 101 17 2 5 34 21 46 10 9 70
Pete Orr L 3B 32 .229 .276 .353 130 433 51 99 19 7 7 38 22 92 15 7 66
Carlos Rivero R SS 23 .241 .280 .342 142 544 49 131 25 3 8 61 31 112 1 2 65
Tuffy Gosewisch R C 27 .225 .291 .328 96 329 34 74 20 1 4 28 26 76 0 1 65
Freddy Galvis B SS 21 .244 .280 .323 152 569 62 139 17 5 6 50 28 108 13 7 61
Paul Phillips R C 34 .239 .286 .313 54 176 15 42 8 1 1 14 11 25 0 0 60
Chris Duffy L LF 31 .216 .275 .328 57 204 25 44 10 2 3 23 14 59 6 3 61
Michael Martinez B 2B 28 .232 .271 .336 122 453 53 105 19 5 6 46 21 89 13 9 61
Robb Quinlan R 1B 34 .231 .289 .286 58 147 14 36 6 0 1 11 11 29 2 1 62
Dane Sardinha R C 32 .198 .237 .321 74 237 22 47 9 1 6 27 11 75 0 0 47
Brian Bocock R SS 26 .204 .275 .272 120 412 47 84 15 2 3 33 41 118 12 9 47
Defensive Projections
Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF
Chase Utley EX/107
Ryan Howard FR/170
Domonic Brown AV/72 AV/141 VG/72
Mike Sweeney PO/113
Raul Ibanez FR/79
Shane Victorino AV/58 AV/113
Ben Francisco AV/79 PO/89 FR/106
Jimmy Rollins AV/57
Carlos Ruiz AV
Delwyn Young FR/108 AV/124 AV/121 AV/113
Placido Polanco VG/54 AV/55
Matt Miller AV/92 PO/110 FR/78
Tagg Bozied FR/120 PO/137 FR/124 FR/118
Brandon Moss AV/121 AV/119 PO/109 FR/49
Jeff Larish FR/98 PO/107 PO/112
Ross Gload FR/72 PO/126 PO/126
Matthew Rizzotti FR/140
Erik Kratz FR
Cesar Hernandez FR/111
John Mayberry AV/113 AV/64 FR/103 AV/69
Brian Schneider AV
Rich Thompson VG/111 VG/111 VG/111
Wilson Valdez FR/100 AV/107 AV/55 AV/114
Harold Garcia FR/112 FR/110
Josh Barfield VG/113 AV/130 AV/98 FR/117
Joel Naughton FR
Melvin Dorta AV/110 FR/126 AV/116 PO/120 AV/101 AV/107
Pete Orr AV/117 FR/88 FR/108 AV/113 FR/97 AV/97
Carlos Rivero AV/125
Tuffy Gosewisch AV
Freddy Galvis AV/99
Paul Phillips AV
Chris Duffy AV/97 FR/109 AV/103
Michael Martinez FR/148 FR/125 AV/107 FR/111
Robb Quinlan AV/112 PO/123 FR/108 FR/114
Dane Sardinha AV
Brian Bocock VG/108
Pitching Projections - Starters
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Cliff Lee L 32 3.03 16 6 28 28 205.0 192 69 16 29 174 138
Roy Halladay R 34 3.03 20 7 30 30 222.7 208 75 21 33 192 138
Roy Oswalt R 33 3.38 14 7 30 29 186.3 167 70 18 46 156 124
Cole Hamels L 27 3.47 14 8 32 32 202.3 183 78 24 53 198 121
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96
Joe Blanton R 30 4.55 8 8 28 28 172.0 183 87 24 49 127 92
Austin Hyatt R 25 4.77 8 9 28 26 137.7 145 73 16 60 116 88
Kyle Kendrick R 26 4.78 10 11 32 29 167.7 185 89 21 51 79 88
Vance Worley R 23 4.97 8 10 29 28 154.0 173 85 18 58 93 84
Nate Bump R 34 5.13 4 5 14 13 66.7 80 38 8 23 27 82
Eddie Bonine R 30 5.21 4 6 33 11 93.3 112 54 13 26 42 80
Josh Fogg R 34 5.51 2 3 14 7 47.3 54 29 8 19 26 76
Brian Mazone L 34 5.55 6 9 23 20 110.3 134 68 18 30 59 75
J.C. Ramirez R 23 5.56 6 9 25 25 132.7 153 82 19 61 78 75
Drew Naylor R 25 5.72 7 12 26 26 148.0 179 94 21 58 84 73
Andrew Carpenter R 26 5.76 7 12 27 25 143.7 168 92 25 59 90 73
Ryan Feierabend L 25 5.88 5 9 25 24 124.0 158 81 20 40 60 71
Phillippe Aumont R 22 5.95 4 8 34 13 87.7 97 58 11 71 65 70
Joe Savery L 25 6.22 5 11 27 22 127.3 160 88 18 71 65 67
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Ryan Madson R 30 3.06 6 2 64 0 64.7 56 22 6 18 68 137
Jose Contreras R 39 3.81 4 3 57 0 56.7 53 24 5 21 49 110
Antonio Bastardo L 25 3.83 2 1 45 0 40.0 35 17 4 19 43 109
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Brad Lidge R 34 3.93 2 2 57 0 52.7 45 23 6 29 60 106
Chad Durbin R 33 3.99 3 2 61 0 70.0 64 31 7 33 61 105
Justin De Fratus R 23 4.02 3 2 54 0 65.0 64 29 6 22 50 104
Michael Schwimer R 25 4.12 5 4 45 0 54.7 51 25 6 27 54 102
Juan Perez L 32 4.46 3 3 39 0 39.6 36 21 5 26 40 94
Scott Mathieson R 27 4.54 2 2 33 0 37.7 35 19 5 20 37 92
Brian Gordon R 32 4.56 3 3 38 3 73.0 78 37 8 24 49 92
Mike Zagurski L 28 4.66 2 2 47 0 46.3 44 24 6 29 47 90
J.C. Romero L 35 4.76 1 1 49 0 34.0 32 18 4 24 29 88
Dan Meyer L 29 4.79 3 3 63 0 62.0 61 33 8 34 47 87
Danys Baez R 33 4.85 3 4 51 0 52.0 53 28 6 24 33 86
Michael Stutes R 24 4.91 3 4 55 0 62.3 59 34 8 43 55 85
David Herndon R 25 5.12 3 4 49 0 58.0 67 33 7 20 31 82
Brian Bass R 29 5.15 3 5 49 2 85.7 96 49 10 42 54 81
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+
Jimmy Rollins .266 .321 .424 2231 9397 1393 2500 533 135 227 1021 740 1071 481 94
Placido Polanco .298 .341 .403 1988 7695 1112 2293 383 40 115 790 424 548 89 95
Chase Utley .276 .365 .472 1970 7434 1224 2054 419 52 311 1178 807 1193 177 118
Raul Ibanez .279 .342 .472 2040 7212 1048 2012 431 54 285 1187 705 1284 51 113
Domonic Brown .270 .334 .452 2127 7181 1025 1942 381 67 262 1154 698 1713 211 108
Ryan Howard .262 .349 .516 1798 6796 1044 1782 316 38 445 1430 867 2009 27 124
Shane Victorino .271 .331 .416 1777 6647 982 1800 327 92 152 696 516 779 292 96
Carlos Ruiz .257 .344 .383 1208 3683 385 947 236 11 69 458 442 450 21 92
Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
Roy Halladay 258 129 1 3.38 492 466 3363 3282 1264 311 657 2572 131
Roy Oswalt 231 137 0 3.41 506 490 3191 3030 1209 303 776 2586 125
Cliff Lee 205 113 0 3.61 422 418 2838 2824 1137 278 558 2223 119
Cole Hamels 188 122 0 3.61 447 448 2839 2605 1139 372 753 2736 118
Joe Blanton 106 97 0 4.43 316 310 1943 2074 955 244 551 1321 95
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
Chase Utley 2B 86% 9% 4% 1% 0% Lou Whitaker Solly Hemus Dick McAuliffe
Ryan Howard 1B 29% 34% 17% 15% 6% Nick Esasky Jesse Barfield Brad Hawpe
Domonic Brown RF 16% 26% 19% 19% 20% Junior Felix Lloyd Moseby Leon Durham
Mike Sweeney 1B 11% 23% 22% 30% 15% Al Kaline Andy Abad Frank Thomas
Raul Ibanez LF 19% 24% 18% 19% 20% George Watkins Bobby Bonilla Luis Gonzalez
Shane Victorino CF 36% 26% 22% 11% 4% Steve Finley Marquis Grissom Brian McRae
Ben Francisco LF 8% 20% 21% 25% 27% Prentice Redman Jeff Ball Steve Brye
Jimmy Rollins SS 39% 28% 22% 9% 2% Scott Spiezio Joe Redfield Royce Clayton
Carlos Ruiz C 22% 36% 23% 15% 4% Rick Dempsey Spud Davis Rick Ferrell
Delwyn Young RF 1% 6% 12% 24% 57% Tim Costo Doug Deeds Dustan Mohr
Placido Polanco 3B 3% 11% 21% 32% 34% Alvin Dark Joe Stripp Pie Traynor
Matt Miller RF 0% 2% 4% 13% 81% Kevin Romine Jorge Padilla Brian Horwitz
Tagg Bozied 1B 0% 4% 9% 30% 57% Juan Thomas Gene Schall Deron Johnson
Brandon Moss RF 1% 4% 8% 17% 70% Jeff Liefer Keith Williams Oreste Marrero
Jeff Larish 1B 1% 4% 8% 27% 60% Damon Minor Chris Gimenez Jeff Bailey
Ross Gload 1B 1% 2% 5% 22% 70% Glenn Adams Mark Kotsay Larry Biittner
Matthew Rizzotti 1B 0% 3% 7% 27% 63% Mario Valdez Joe Vitiello Don Barbara
Erik Kratz C 6% 14% 19% 30% 30% Ron Karkovice Keith McDonald Mike Rose
Cesar Hernandez 2B 8% 10% 14% 24% 44% Cass Michaels Edgar Renteria Harold Reynolds
John Mayberry RF 0% 3% 6% 15% 75% Anthony Sanders Matt Carson Ray Sadler
Brian Schneider C 6% 15% 19% 31% 28% Jamie Quirk Rick Cerone Keith McDonald
Rich Thompson CF 2% 3% 10% 26% 59% Mark Budzinski Tom Goodwin Dave Roberts
Wilson Valdez SS 2% 5% 15% 27% 51% Jose Vizcaino Edgar Caceres Rey Sanchez
Harold Garcia 2B 3% 3% 6% 15% 73% Bob Meacham Carlos Garcia Curtis Wilkerson
Josh Barfield 2B 0% 1% 1% 3% 95% Chris Lemonis Jace Brewer Luis Garcia
Joel Naughton C 1% 2% 4% 16% 76% Roger Hansen Mike Knapp Edwin Bellorin
Melvin Dorta 2B 1% 1% 1% 4% 92% Casey Smith Rod Correia Rene Gonzales
Pete Orr 3B 0% 0% 1% 3% 95% Derek Wathan Steve Hecht Dan Rohn
Carlos Rivero SS 1% 2% 5% 12% 80% Sergio Santos David Lamb Ramon Castro
Tuffy Gosewisch C 0% 1% 3% 10% 86% Bill Dobrolsky Brian Moon Matt Garrick
Freddy Galvis SS 1% 2% 4% 9% 84% Dario Nunez Curtis Wilkerson Pedro Ciriaco
Paul Phillips C 0% 0% 1% 7% 91% Frank Charles Chris Ashby Kirt Manwaring
Chris Duffy LF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Kevin Koslofski Lee Tinsley Colin Porter
Michael Martinez 2B 0% 0% 1% 2% 97% Shaun Skrehot Pablo Martinez Gary Miller-Jones
Robb Quinlan 1B 0% 0% 0% 0% 99% Frank Charles Dusty Wathan Felipe Zayas
Dane Sardinha C 0% 0% 1% 3% 96% Charlie Greene Chad Moeller Jayhawk Owens
Brian Bocock SS 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% Chris Petersen Brett King Darrin Duffy
Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3
Cliff Lee SP 91% 8% 7% John Smiley Bob Ojeda Frank Viola
Roy Halladay SP 93% 4% 3% Mike Mussina Greg Maddux Bret Saberhagen
Ryan Madson RP 68% 26% 6% Rollie Fingers Gene Garber J.J. Putz
Roy Oswalt SP 70% 23% 7% Doug Drabek Steve Rogers Curt Schilling
Cole Hamels SP 68% 24% 8% Pete Schourek Atlee Hammaker C.C. Sabathia
Jose Contreras RP 34% 44% 22% Ron Reed Satchel Paige Todd Jones
Antonio Bastardo RP 33% 45% 22% Chuck McElroy Dennys Reyes Randy Myers
Brad Lidge RP 24% 48% 28% Juan Berenguer Ryne Duren Tim Stoddard
Chad Durbin RP 16% 58% 25% Jose Alvarez Ed Farmer Toby Borland
Justin De Fratus RP 24% 49% 27% Manuel Corpas Steve Olin Jose Acevedo
Michael Schwimer RP 20% 45% 35% Cecilio Guante Ray Krawczyk Jeff Zaske
Juan Perez RP 11% 28% 60% Doug Creek Kevin Tolar Tim Fortugno
Scott Mathieson RP 14% 32% 54% Bo Donaldson Mike Armstrong Travis Phelps
Joe Blanton SP 10% 55% 36% Jeff Weaver Ed Whitson Jose Lima
Brian Gordon RP 7% 37% 56% Tom Brennan Bob Stanley Ramiro Mendoza
Mike Zagurski RP 8% 30% 62% Ricky Pickett Brian Fuentes Kevin Lovingier
J.C. Romero RP 11% 30% 59% Ron Villone Kevin Tolar Norm Charlton
Austin Hyatt SP 9% 52% 40% Pascual Perez Bob Veselic Jason Isringhausen
Kyle Kendrick SP 6% 44% 50% Brian Meadows Dave Eiland Dave Geeve
Dan Meyer RP 6% 36% 58% Erick Burke Ron Mahay Brian Shackelford
Danys Baez RP 10% 30% 61% Pat Mahomes Jim Slaton Kirk Bullinger
Michael Stutes RP 4% 27% 69% Dave Shipanoff Joe Borowski Lariel Gonzalez
Vance Worley SP 3% 37% 60% Josh Fogg Joe Housey Sergio Mitre
David Herndon RP 2% 24% 74% Tim Kester Brian Allen Reid Santos
Nate Bump SP 7% 28% 64% Pat Ahearne Walt Terrell Brian Moehler
Brian Bass RP 0% 11% 89% Andy Mitchell Jeff Heaverlo Hansel Izquierdo
Eddie Bonine SP 2% 16% 82% Matt Ginter Tim Harikkala Jack Lamabe
Josh Fogg SP 3% 15% 82% Jeff Harris Joe Haynes Chris Nichting
Brian Mazone SP 2% 15% 83% Terry Mulholland Darrell May Scott McGregor
J.C. Ramirez SP 0% 13% 87% Nate Cornejo Scott Rivette Denny Wagner
Drew Naylor SP 0% 7% 93% Justin Lehr Doug Waechter Melqui Torres
Andrew Carpenter SP 0% 7% 93% Danny Tamayo Kyle Middleton Mark Nussbeck
Ryan Feierabend SP 0% 4% 96% Heath Phillips Mike Ramsey Bobby Livingston
Phillippe Aumont SP 0% 2% 98% Tim Meeks Chris Clark Eric Parent
Joe Savery SP 0% 2% 98% Bruce Lockhart Larry Thomas Mark Brandenburg
Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB
Chase Utley 19% 55% 30% 1% 4% 13% 25% 6%
Ryan Howard 4% 15% 57% 0% 3% 76% 22% 0%
Domonic Brown 20% 8% 23% 1% 17% 5% 6% 10%
Mike Sweeney 28% 13% 23% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0%
Raul Ibanez 10% 11% 26% 4% 4% 12% 10% 0%
Shane Victorino 16% 9% 7% 3% 48% 2% 3% 47%
Ben Francisco 10% 5% 9% 0% 0% 0% 2% 3%
Jimmy Rollins 8% 3% 8% 3% 19% 3% 3% 29%
Carlos Ruiz 11% 30% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Delwyn Young 10% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Placido Polanco 32% 5% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Matt Miller 16% 7% 1% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Tagg Bozied 2% 2% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Brandon Moss 1% 1% 3% 1% 3% 1% 0% 0%
Jeff Larish 1% 3% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0%
Ross Gload 17% 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Matthew Rizzotti 3% 4% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Erik Kratz 1% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cesar Hernandez 20% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 53%
John Mayberry 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 2% 0% 1%
Brian Schneider 6% 11% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Rich Thompson 2% 0% 0% 0% 16% 0% 0% 34%
Wilson Valdez 9% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Harold Garcia 2% 0% 1% 0% 15% 1% 0% 46%
Josh Barfield 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Joel Naughton 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Melvin Dorta 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Pete Orr 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 0% 0% 3%
Carlos Rivero 1% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Tuffy Gosewisch 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Freddy Galvis 1% 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% 0% 4%
Paul Phillips 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chris Duffy 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Michael Martinez 0% 0% 0% 0% 7% 0% 0% 1%
Robb Quinlan 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Dane Sardinha 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Brian Bocock 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1
Cliff Lee 69% 95% 33% 99% 93%
Roy Halladay 71% 96% 38% 99% 78%
Ryan Madson 64% 92% 88% 20% 77%
Roy Oswalt 35% 89% 26% 30% 75%
Cole Hamels 32% 91% 78% 22% 49%
Jose Contreras 27% 72% 44% 5% 70%
Antonio Bastardo 33% 71% 85% 1% 62%
Brad Lidge 17% 64% 97% 0% 62%
Chad Durbin 16% 62% 45% 0% 72%
Justin De Fratus 19% 67% 13% 4% 75%
Michael Schwimer 14% 57% 72% 0% 67%
Juan Perez 7% 31% 72% 0% 42%
Scott Mathieson 9% 37% 66% 0% 37%
Joe Blanton 1% 29% 4% 11% 23%
Brian Gordon 5% 38% 1% 9% 55%
Mike Zagurski 5% 30% 79% 0% 49%
J.C. Romero 11% 32% 36% 0% 64%
Austin Hyatt 1% 24% 27% 0% 52%
Kyle Kendrick 2% 19% 0% 6% 42%
Dan Meyer 4% 35% 18% 0% 59%
Danys Baez 7% 33% 2% 1% 56%
Michael Stutes 3% 25% 39% 0% 49%
Vance Worley 0% 12% 0% 0% 48%
David Herndon 1% 21% 0% 9% 41%
Nate Bump 1% 16% 0% 11% 55%
Brian Bass 0% 6% 0% 0% 68%
Eddie Bonine 2% 13% 0% 22% 28%
Josh Fogg 2% 14% 2% 4% 27%
Brian Mazone 0% 6% 1% 19% 17%
J.C. Ramirez 0% 2% 0% 0% 27%
Drew Naylor 0% 1% 0% 0% 25%
Andrew Carpenter 0% 1% 0% 0% 6%
Ryan Feierabend 0% 0% 0% 5% 12%
Phillippe Aumont 0% 1% 6% 0% 51%
Joe Savery 0% 0% 0% 0% 26%
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers
New York Mets
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 14, 2011 at 06:35 AM | 53 comment(s)
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1. danieljNot that I would expect ZiPS to project records being broken, since it's going to look at the median, but .. well I'm not sure what my point is.
EDIT: Also, who the hell is Austin Hyatt?
The over.
If you take the under, your best case scenario is a negligible amount of money, and your worst case is paying a bunch.
If you take the over, your best case scenario is a decent amount of money, and your worst case is paying a negligible amount.
I don't get why this is an option.
Well, it's not THAT cut & dried, it all depends on how likely you think it is that the Phillies win are too win 100.
Just to illustrate, some random numbers (they don't make a whole lot od sense, but they're easy and I didn't want too waste too much time):
Prob Phillies < 100: 85% average 94 wins
Prob Phillies = 101: 5%
Prob Phillies = 102: 4%
Prob Phillies = 103: 3%
Prob Phillies = 104: 2%
Prob Phillies = 105: 1%
Your EV in that scenario is -1.5$ if you take the over. And uhm yeah, there is a 0% chance the Phillies actually end up with exactly 100 wins, or more than 105... But you get the picture.
Well above average pitching, above average offence. The key for them is going to be health.
And to continue in Plaschke mode, I am mighty surprised that they didn't make an offer for Soriano. Marginal value for the Phillies is probably pretty high on that signing.
Eric Wordekemper shows up again. Why does he keep popping up on Phillies lists? He's very much a Yankee farm product. I'm guessing there's a programming snafu on baseball-reference that missed Scranton's franchise move.
Is it possible to get a projection for Savery as a hitter, or is there too small a track record? The Phillies moved him off the mound.
Mike Sweeney's comps are a hilarious example of how weird three-year comps can look. Al Kaline, Andy Abad, Frank Thomas. I remember Andy Abad - he made like five AAA All-Star teams in a row without ever projecting as a good major leaguer.
I really like the Lou Whitaker comp for Chase Utley. Utley's better, but the arrangement of skills is almost exactly the same.
Every one of Ryan Howard's top three comps was done as an MLB regular by the age of 31. That's about as bad a set of comparables as it is possible for a player to have. Now, this is a bit unfair, as Esasky's vertigo can hardly be figured in to the equation, Brad Hawpe still might put together a decent season soon, but ZiPS' career projection for Howard is truly terrible, and this must be the reason. Howard has put up a 140 OPS+ in 3700 AB so far in his career. In order to end his career with a 124 OPS+ in 6700 AB (with a 124 OPS+ in 550 AB this year), Howard needs to put up a 100 OPS+ over the final 2500 AB of his career. Basically, ZiPS thinks Howard's toast as a good player, starting in about 2012.
Also: Lee + Halladay: 427.7 innings, 62 BB
What does this even mean (besides that the Howard extension was unwise)? In what way should anyone associated with the Phillies worry about the contract or concern themselves with it this year? In fact, it is almost impossible for his contract to affect 2011 in any way whatsoever (given that a trade will not be happening).
####### ash tray money bet, bro.
I hear what you're saying, but 800+ innings with a 130 ERA+ would be pretty freaking great. In fact, it would be one of the top performances by a starting rotation in baseball history. The 1971 Orioles got ~1100 innings from their rotation, but the ERA+ was "only" about 115. The 1998 Braves probably had the best rotation in the last 100 years, and they had ~1100 IP from the top 5 with an ERA+ around 140 (I'm just eyeballing these stats).
His top 3 BBREF comps are Richie Sexson, David Ortiz and Wilie McCovey
Sexson was still a regular after 30- but terrible
Otiz looked to be in rapid descent but had a nice bounceback last year at age 34
McCovey's peak was 30-32
next you get McGriff and Cecil Fielder
McGriff last along time, but after 30 most years he put up a 110-120 OPS+ (and for a 1B that's just another player)
McGwire, Mo Vaughn
Thin Carlos and Tino M...
I think ZiPs is right WRT Howard
And the top 5 as a whole: 988.3 innings, 210 BB. That's only 1.9 BB/9 IP. The worst guy is at about 2.6 BB/9 IP, which is still significantly better than the 3.3 BB/9IP that the NL averaged, and would not be too far outside the NL Top 10.
But it will be Jeff Kent who will be Utley's HoF barometer. If Kent starts out around 10%, Utley won't have any chance either (with the BBWAA at least). If Kent gets 20-30%, that would bode well.
It will be Utley's longevity more than anything else, he's had a late start, if he declines when Robbie Alomar did he's not getting in, if he ages like Kent, then the Kent barometer may be useful- but I think he gets in anyway- since he's not gonna have Kent's problems (guilt by association and percolating belief among the MSM that Kent should be compared to LFs rather than 2Bs...)
Not sure what that means. There is the general HoF voter's seeming need to compare all 2B and 3B to LF but that doesn't single out Kent. Is it a reference to his rep as a poor fielder? Utley certainly doesn't have a rep as a poor fielder but he's also never won a GG so unless fancy defensive stats have won the day by the time he comes up for election (which they may have, we're talking 10+ years from now), his defense isn't going to play a significant role in his HoF case.
I'd also argue Kent has no guilt by association in the voters' minds. He was not a friend of Bonds's, in fact they openly argued that one time. Kent will have a hard time with the "that's a funny career arc, he must have been on roids" and the "I ain't voting for any hitter from that era except the ones I liked" crowd but otherwise I don't see him being tainted by the steroids era.
I've seen at least three times now, comments to the effect that Kent's numbers don't look like a 2B's numbers, and he was not great shakes with the glove, so his number should not be comapred to guys like MAz(!) or even Alomar, but be compared to guys who played 1B...
Yes, they're supposed to be 172.
Nick Esasky
Jesse Barfield
Brad Hawpe
Carlos Pena
Leon Durham
Jim Gentile
Richie Sexson
Fred McGriff
Dick Stuart
Gus Zernial
Jay Buhner
Vic Wertz
Norm Cash
Greg Luzinski
All but a couple of these guys aged worse than the Macarena.
I wasn't aware the Macarena had aged. I always assumed it had just spontaniously become extinct. Sigh, would have been to much to ask for, I suppose...
Alanis-ronically, if Minaya didn't fix the issue after that, I'm guessing Alderson will...
The Phans are quite nervous, due to Brown's less than auspicious Aug-Sep callup. It sure looked like he could be handled inside. Supposedly new/old hitting coach Greg Gross already has it straightened out.
None will have 300 wins, 3000 Ks, ERAs below 3, etc. I can see the electorate ####### up at least one of these guys, if not all three.
Halladay's already got 2 Cy's, a playoff no-hitter, and a regular-season perfect game. If he gets to 250 wins (as ZIPs predicts), he'll get in easily. Oswalt, on the other hand, has always kind of slid a little under the radar in terms of how good he really is and pitching in the same rotation as Halladay and Cliff Lee probably isn't going to help that. I'd put his HOF odds well south of 50% (in terms of getting voted in; not in terms of deserving it).
I also like that Hamels ends up with 1 more GS than G. :-)
I also like ZiPS' projection of Howard adding speed as he ages -- more triples and SBs in the second half of his career. :-)
He's 32, has 102 wins and a 112ERA+.
He'd need to repeat his last three years through age 40 to just get to 250 wins.
Say he gets to 230 wins with a 115ERA+. Is that enough?
Oswalt on the other hand has the peak/prime and just needs to stay the course for five more years.
If he can get to 225 wins with 125ERA+ 2500K he'd be at least comparable to Drysdale/Bunning and hard to keep out.
Halladay, as you said is a shoo-in and has already done enough.
All of this misses the fact, however, that the Phillies project to need their bullpen far less than most teams.
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