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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, November 07, 2010

2011 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates are essentially the sports franchise equivalent of a cancer patient.  Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington, however, inherited the malignancy, slowly nurtured through the years by those noted warpers of DNA, Cam Bonifay, Dave Littlefield, and Mickey “OMG I THOUGHT WE WERE HIRING LOGAN!” White.  The metastasizing management spread to every part of the major league level, from free agent signings to scouting 43rd round picks from schools resembling 1-room schoolhouses of yore.

However, all is not lost.  These cancers in baseball are invasive, but they are still treatable.  The treatment may be decidedly unpleasant and the Ogden’s Nutting Gone Flake! Insurance Company may be slow to pay out claims, but the slow, painful chemotherapy has a good chance of making the Pirates whole again.  Sure, there’s weight loss, depression, buckets of ennui, and, worst of all, occasional experiences watching Bobby Crosby try to hit a baseball (and only the kine bud needed to watch the team daily being a good experience), but the painful process is more likely to yield results than eating buffalo wings and pushing the oncology appointment back yet another month.

So where do the Pirates stand?  They’ won’t be a good team in 2011 and probably not a good team in 2012.  They’re making solid process on putting at least a decent offense together (the non-starters really destroyed the hitting last season) and while the pitching staff will continue to be ugly in the short-term, there’s a decent crop of pitchers in the low minors.  It will take awhile, though, and it remains to be seen how patient the organization will be with the current plan.  There have been some notorious 5-year-plans in recent Pirates history, but all those plans were less actual plans and more unwatchful waiting.

As an aside, the ZiPS Projections will most likely be released by DMB this spring.  Without the horrific data-entry task, this should provide me enough time to provide properly regressed splits for all players instead of merely the ones with reasonable sample sizes.  They’ll still regress heavily toward generic platoon splits, because that’s the way to project, but they should be there.  The data-entry part was always the biggest time bandit - the projections themselves only take me about a third as long as it takes me to get them onto the DMB disk.

Next up:  Padres

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Andrew McCutchen  R    CF  24   .288 .365 .453 160 614 113 177  37   8  16  70  72  98  34  12  118
Pedro Alvarez     L    3B  24   .262 .337 .479 158 587  89 154  35   4  28 116  68 186   3   3  116
Neil Walker       B    2B  25   .271 .321 .453 154 583  81 158  40   6  18  94  43 109   9   5  105
Jose Tabata       R    LF  22   .289 .343 .398 151 610 107 176  33   5   8  59  47  85  33  13   99
Ryan Doumit       B    C   30   .264 .329 .429 111 382  50 101  22   1  13  53  32  69   2   1  102
Garrett Jones     L    1B  30   .262 .316 .444 149 565  73 148  33   2  22  85  46 110  10   4  101
Steven Pearce     R    1B  28   .254 .326 .434 106 362  49  92  26   3  11  52  37  74   7   4  102
John Bowker       L    1B  27   .264 .329 .430 136 440  62 116  22   3  15  65  41  92   4   4  102
Tony Sanchez      R    C   23   .269 .353 .390  71 264  36  71  18   1   4  43  26  60   1   1   99
Lastings Milledge R    RF  26   .276 .330 .398 129 460  57 127  25   2   9  51  31  83  13   6   94
Delwyn Young      B    RF  29   .264 .314 .412 117 277  35  73  16   2   7  36  20  64   1   0   93
Brandon Moss      L    RF  27   .246 .304 .419 146 484  63 119  28   4  16  73  38 120   5   5   92
Brian Myrow       L    1B  34   .238 .340 .363  97 320  44  76  14   1   8  43  46  74   2   1   89
Alex Presley      L    CF  25   .257 .305 .394 141 505  74 130  22  10   9  62  33 101  10   7   86
Chris Snyder      B    C   30   .215 .324 .381  97 289  34  62  12   0  12  45  45  78   0   0   88
Ronny Cedeno      R    SS  28   .253 .295 .385 125 392  45  99  19   3   9  45  22  79   9   3   81
Erik Kratz        R    C   31   .229 .296 .401  82 284  33  65  20   1   9  39  23  69   2   1   85
Jim Negrych       L    2B  26   .258 .328 .346 125 442  66 114  21   3   4  50  44  82   8   5   81
Jonathan Van EveryL    CF  31   .216 .305 .390  83 231  34  50   8   1  10  28  28  92   2   2   85
Kevin Melillo     L    LF  29   .233 .300 .380 102 374  48  87  20   4   9  40  37  70   5   3   81
Chase d’Arnaud    R    SS  24   .230 .304 .357 145 582  99 134  32   9   8  56  51 123  25   8   77
Pedro Ciriaco     R    SS  25   .268 .285 .356 147 579  71 155  24   6   5  58  14  99  26   8   71
Andy LaRoche      R    3B  27   .232 .309 .355 125 380  50  88  16   2   9  40  40  63   3   1   78
Gorkys Hernandez  R    CF  23   .248 .300 .335 130 532  77 132  22   6   4  42  36 131  20   8   70
Mitch Jones       R    RF  33   .216 .266 .405  94 338  37  73  20   1  14  43  21  93   4   3   77
Kris Watts        L    C   26   .223 .311 .335  82 278  34  62  14   1   5  29  31  48   1   1   74
Brian Friday      R    2B  25   .237 .311 .339 108 392  53  93  20   4   4  34  37  90  10   8   75
Jason Jaramillo   B    C   28   .234 .293 .339  80 274  23  64  12   1   5  34  22  50   1   0   69
Argenis Diaz      R    SS  24   .242 .285 .291 131 454  44 110  16   3   0  36  26 103   5   5   55

Defensive Projections

Player             CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Andrew McCutchen                                           VG/113  AV/95
Pedro Alvarez                              FR/138
Neil Walker                        FR/94   AV/119          AV/108
Jose Tabata                                                VG/61   FR/68   AV/113
Ryan Doumit        FR      FR/124                          FR/151          FR/151
Garrett Jones              AV/142                          AV/90           AV/105
Steven Pearce              AV/124          PR/149                          AV/199
John Bowker                AV/173                          VG/172          AV/109
Tony Sanchez       FR
Lastings Milledge                                          AV/87   FR/121  AV/107
Delwyn Young                       FR/108  AV/124          AV/121          AV/113
Brandon Moss               AV/121                          AV/119  PR/109  FR/49
Brian Myrow                AV/141          PR/111          FR/101          FR/102
Alex Presley                                               AV/112  AV/190  AV/102
Chris Snyder       FR
Ronny Cedeno                       AV/112  AV/114
Erik Kratz         FR
Jim Negrych                        AV/199  AV/155
Jonathan Van Every         AV/128                          AV/110  FR/57   AV/118
Kevin Melillo              VG/172  AV/125  AV/127          AV/109          AV/144
Chase d’Arnaud                     AV/160  AV/116  FR/155
Pedro Ciriaco                      VG/117          VG/109
Andy LaRoche               AV/98   FR/146  AV/98
Gorkys Hernandez                                                   EX/166
Mitch Jones                FR/155          PR/170          PR/185  PR/134  PR/49
Kris Watts
Brian Friday       FR
Jason Jaramillo    AV
Argenis Diaz                       VG/136          VG/136

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Ross Ohlendorf    R     28    4.13     8    8   25   25  139.3  134   64   16   49   96   98
James McDonald    R     26    4.14     7    7   35   20  121.7  117   56   12   53   95   97
Paul Maholm       L     29    4.40     9   10   31   31  190.3  205   93   17   61  117   92
Kevin Hart        R     28    4.56     4    5   27   11   71.0   71   36    7   37   55   88
Rudy Owens        L     23    4.62     7    8   24   24  117.0  125   60   16   28   71   87
Zach Duke         L     28    4.87     9   13   30   30  181.0  207   98   23   49   99   83
Charlie Morton    R     26    4.95     9   13   29   29  154.7  168   85   17   64  100   82
Chris Jakubauskas R     32    4.95     3    5   19    9   60.0   67   33    8   21   32   81
Jeff Karstens     R     28    5.06     6    9   32   19  128.0  143   72   20   36   71   80
Justin Wilson     L     23    5.33     7   11   28   27  126.7  130   75   15   87   92   76
Brad Lincoln      R     26    5.35     6   11   25   25  131.3  150   78   21   39   77   75
Bryan Morris      R     24    5.37     5    9   24   22  107.3  125   64   13   49   63   75
Joe Martinez      R     28    5.43     4    8   25   19  109.3  136   66   12   41   61   74
Brian Burres      L     30    5.53     5   10   29   21  127.0  147   78   17   57   72   73
Michael Crotta    R     26    5.57     6   12   29   29  148.7  194   92   15   44   75   72
Derek Hankins     R     27    5.61     4    7   30   12   93.0  109   58   14   39   54   72
Donald Veal       L     26    5.61     2    4   22   13   67.3   71   42    9   51   50   72
Daniel McCutchen  R     28    5.65     7   14   33   26  151.3  173   95   30   50   81   71
Dana Eveland      L     27    5.70     5   11   29   24  131.0  162   83   14   62   76   71
Jeremy Powell     R     35    5.79     5   11   31   16  107.3  130   69   16   40   55   70
Tim Alderson      R     22    6.23     5   12   25   24  120.0  155   83   20   44   57   65
Jared Hughes      R     25    6.24     4   11   26   20  111.0  141   77   17   53   62   65

Pitching Projections - Relievers

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Evan Meek         R     28    3.46     3    2   55    0   67.7   56   26    5   33   56  117
Joel Hanrahan     R     29    3.57     3    2   68    0   70.7   61   28    6   30   87  113
Chris Resop       R     28    4.14     3    3   34    9   71.7   66   33    6   38   60   97
Chan Ho Park      R     38    4.26     3    3   46    4   69.7   71   33    7   25   53   95
Wil Ledezma       L     30    4.34     2    2   47    1   56.0   55   27    5   30   53   93
Jose Ascanio      R     26    4.38     2    2   26    5   49.3   50   24    5   21   40   92
Brendan Donnelly  R     39    4.41     2    2   37    0   32.7   32   16    4   17   26   91
Justin Thomas     L     27    4.95     3    4   56    0   63.7   66   35    8   32   44   81
Vinnie Chulk      R     32    5.06     1    1   32    0   37.3   42   21    4   17   24   80
Brian Bass        R     29    5.17     3    5   49    2   85.3   98   49    9   41   50   78
Chris Leroux      R     27    5.18     3    4   51    0   57.3   66   33    6   27   38   78
Danny Moskos      L     25    5.37     3    5   57    0   57.0   63   34    6   36   38   75
Steven Jackson    R     29    5.48     2    4   54    1   70.7   82   43   10   32   42   74
Anthony Claggett  R     26    5.70     3    5   44    2   71.0   82   45    9   38   40   71
Ramon Aguero      R     26    5.88     2    5   32    1   49.0   60   32    5   28   29   69
	
Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Ryan Doumit         .260  .321  .413  1320  4463   536  1159   261     8   136   573   334   766    24    95
Pedro Alvarez       .254  .328  .452  2253  8414  1178  2137   467    60   361  1533   937  2337    49   107
Andy LaRoche        .227  .307  .344   771  2323   284   528   102     8    51   236   246   383    17    74
Neil Walker         .262  .313  .430  1764  6645   881  1742   424    55   193  1013   492  1153    80    97
Andrew McCutchen    .274  .353  .427  2530  9711  1672  2662   554    99   245  1030  1153  1445   355   108
Lastings Milledge   .270  .327  .394  1254  4429   521  1196   232    21    92   489   307   788   107    92

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Zach Duke           70  103    0    4.63  240  239     1436 1701  738  163  389  765     90
Paul Maholm         93  114    0    4.54  318  318     1959 2152  987  187  653 1198     91

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Andrew McCutchen  CF    60%  20%  13%   5%   2%    Bernie Williams       Lloyd Moseby        Ellis Burks
Pedro Alvarez     3B    27%  35%  21%  12%   5%      Mark Reynolds        Nick Esasky    Hensley Meulens
Neil Walker       2B    33%  20%  17%  16%  13%      Khalil Greene          Rick Schu        Wade Rowdon
Jose Tabata       LF     6%  17%  19%  24%  35%       Delmon Young     Rocco Baldelli   Juan Encarnacion
Ryan Doumit       C     23%  36%  22%  14%   4%         Alan Ashby    Brian Schneider             Ed Ott
Garrett Jones     1B     4%  11%  16%  35%  34%        Rico Brogna       Craig Monroe        Kurt Bierek
Steven Pearce     1B     2%  11%  17%  36%  34%      Marcus Thames       Brad Bierley          Pat Casey
John Bowker       1B     1%  10%  16%  35%  38%        Sap Randall     Mike Maksudian        Gene Schall
Tony Sanchez      C     17%  35%  25%  17%   6%       Alex Trevino          John Jaso        Rich Gedman
Lastings Milledge RF     2%   7%  12%  25%  55%        Ruben Mateo       Andrew Locke          Rod Allen
Delwyn Young      RF     1%   6%  12%  24%  57%          Tim Costo         Doug Deeds        Dustan Mohr
Brandon Moss      RF     1%   4%   8%  17%  70%        Jeff Liefer     Keith Williams     Oreste Marrero
Brian Myrow       1B     1%   2%   4%  20%  73%       Larry Sutton       Stu Pederson    Chris Pritchett
Alex Presley      CF     3%   5%  14%  29%  49%       Tyler Colvin      Nathan Haynes        Angel Pagan
Chris Snyder      C     10%  21%  22%  28%  20%     Kelly Stinnett         Dave Valle       Danny Ardoin
Ronny Cedeno      SS     6%  10%  23%  30%  31%      Joe DeMaestri     Travis Dawkins      Tommy Shields
Erik Kratz        C      6%  14%  19%  30%  30%      Ron Karkovice     Keith McDonald          Mike Rose
Jim Negrych       2B     2%   4%   8%  21%  65%       Jorge Sequea        Peter Peltz      Matt Erickson
Jonathan Van EveryCF     2%   4%  13%  28%  53%        Dustan Mohr   Darrell Whitmore       Armando Rios
Kevin Melillo     LF     0%   1%   3%   8%  87%       Phil Dauphin        Nate Murphy       Marc Sagmoen
Chase d’Arnaud    SS     4%   8%  20%  30%  37%       Joe Redfield      Donnie Sadler          Rod Smith
Pedro Ciriaco     SS     1%   4%  15%  31%  49% Anderson Hernandez      Javier Guzman        Kim Batiste
Andy LaRoche      3B     1%   2%   6%  16%  75%     Craig Counsell        Rick Morris       Brad Seitzer
Gorkys Hernandez  CF     0%   1%   5%  15%  79%       Gary Thurman   Elijah Bonaparte       Jeff McNeely
Mitch Jones       RF     0%   1%   2%   6%  91%        Dustan Mohr      Alan Cockrell     Mike Devereaux
Kris Watts        C      1%   4%   6%  20%  70%    Scott Hatteberg   Alberto Castillo       Mike Nickeas
Brian Friday      2B     1%   1%   2%   9%  87%         Tim Torres    Manuel Francois       Eric Martins
Jason Jaramillo   C      1%   3%   6%  17%  72%         David Duff   Alberto Castillo   Brandon Marsters
Argenis Diaz      SS     0%   0%   0%   3%  97%         Benny Ruiz       Jim Scranton  Freddie Benavides

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Evan Meek         RP     39%   45%   16%     Frank Williams    Derrick Turnbow      Sammy Stewart
Joel Hanrahan     RP     37%   49%   14%         Paul Shuey        Jeff Little       Bryan Harvey
Ross Ohlendorf    SP     19%   58%   22%   Todd Stottlemyre         Pete Smith       Rick Helling
James McDonald    SP     24%   57%   19%           Jim Gott        Lee Tunnell     Dustin McGowan
Chris Resop       RP     12%   47%   41%    Todd Wellemeyer         Jack Meyer   Calvin Schiraldi
Chan Ho Park      RP     11%   40%   49%          Ted Power         Joe Boever        Matt Herges
Wil Ledezma       RP     10%   38%   52%       Greg Cadaret    Scott Sauerbeck        Kevin Tolar
Jose Ascanio      RP      8%   39%   53%      J.J. Trujillo          Dan Hubbs       Will Cunnane
Paul Maholm       SP     10%   52%   38%        John Halama    John Rheinecker         Scott Karl
Brendan Donnelly  RP     16%   31%   52%        Greg Harris    Hector Carrasco          Doug Bair
Kevin Hart        SP      4%   31%   65%         John Burke       Joel Peralta     Craig McMurtry
Rudy Owens        SP      8%   42%   49%      Blaine Beatty     Brian Anderson     Atlee Hammaker
Zach Duke         SP      4%   33%   63%        Mike Maroth     Rick Honeycutt       Brian Shouse
Charlie Morton    SP      2%   27%   71%       Jimmy Haynes        Tim Redding        Steve Kelly
Justin Thomas     RP      1%   22%   77%    Mark Tranbarger       Brandon Bowe     Scott Wiegandt
Chris Jakubauskas SP      5%   22%   73%       Mark Knudson      Lary Sorensen       Clay Condrey
Vinnie Chulk      RP      4%   18%   78%        Bobby Munoz         Mark Small     Jason Childers
Jeff Karstens     SP      3%   23%   74%      Ryan Franklin        Justin Reid        Kris Wilson
Brian Bass        RP      0%   11%   89%      Andy Mitchell      Jeff Heaverlo   Hansel Izquierdo
Chris Leroux      RP      1%   17%   83%     Kelvin Jimenez       Greg Bartley   Erik Schullstrom
Justin Wilson     SP      1%   14%   85%        Micah Bowie     Phil Dumatrait        Jordan Pals
Brad Lincoln      SP      0%   15%   85%      Terry Gilmore        Scott Lewis     Shannon Withem
Bryan Morris      SP      1%   13%   86%       Mitch Talbot      Brian Moehler     Rick Sutcliffe
Danny Moskos      RP      1%    9%   90%    Philip Barzilla      Mike Williams      Justin Lamber
Joe Martinez      SP      1%   13%   87%       Mike Thurman       Joel Pineiro         Don August
Steven Jackson    RP      0%    6%   94%      Jason Karnuth     Jim Czajkowski        Bryan Corey
Brian Burres      SP      0%    8%   92%        Rick Krivda       Chris Peters      Brian Abraham
Michael Crotta    SP      0%    7%   93%         A.J. Sager       Nate Cornejo      Doug Waechter
Derek Hankins     SP      0%    3%   97%        Steve Finch         Ron Jensen      Brian Sweeney
Donald Veal       SP      1%   10%   89%      Mark McLemore      Morris Madden         Andy Pratt
Daniel McCutchen  SP      1%    6%   93% Francisco Oliveras    Steve Ellsworth      Ryan Franklin
Dana Eveland      SP      0%    4%   96%       Jason Cromer       Bruce Ruffin         Jeff Mutis
Anthony Claggett  RP      0%    4%   96%     Gerrit Simpson        Jose Segura     Jeremy Salyers
Jeremy Powell     SP      1%    9%   90%    Dennis Springer     Chris Nichting           Jim Barr
Ramon Aguero      RP      0%    6%   94%      Mike Trombley     Don Timberlake        Jose Segura
Tim Alderson      SP      0%    2%   97%       Dave Johnson      Jaime Navarro        Allen Davis
Jared Hughes      SP      0%    1%   99%      Edward Valdez        Nick Masset       Sonny Garcia

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Andrew McCutchen        30%      33%      14%      27%      37%       5%      11%      62%
Pedro Alvarez            5%       8%      32%      11%       6%      42%      10%       0%
Neil Walker             11%       3%      14%      26%      12%       6%       3%       1%
Jose Tabata             31%      11%       2%       8%      10%       0%       1%      53%
Ryan Doumit              9%       5%       8%       0%       0%       1%       2%       0%
Garrett Jones            5%       2%       9%       6%       1%      13%       2%       3%
Steven Pearce            4%       5%       5%       0%       1%       0%       1%       1%
John Bowker              6%       4%       4%       0%       2%       1%       1%       0%
Tony Sanchez            17%      24%       2%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%
Lastings Milledge       15%       4%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       3%
Delwyn Young            10%       3%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brandon Moss             1%       1%       3%       1%       3%       1%       0%       0%
Brian Myrow              1%      10%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Alex Presley             3%       0%       1%       0%      53%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Snyder             0%       7%       3%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Ronny Cedeno             4%       0%       2%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Erik Kratz               1%       1%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jim Negrych              4%       3%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Jonathan Van Every       0%       2%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Kevin Melillo            0%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Chase d’Arnaud           0%       1%       0%       5%      39%       0%       0%      29%
Pedro Ciriaco            7%       0%       0%       1%      17%       0%       0%      25%
Andy LaRoche             0%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Gorkys Hernandez         1%       0%       0%       0%      16%       0%       0%       6%
Mitch Jones              0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Kris Watts               0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brian Friday             1%       1%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%       0%
Jason Jaramillo          1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Argenis Diaz             1%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Evan Meek                 32%        80%        29%         0%        83%
Joel Hanrahan             30%        77%        98%         0%        81%
Ross Ohlendorf             3%        44%         2%         1%        44%
James McDonald             6%        47%        12%         0%        74%
Chris Resop                9%        53%        29%         0%        80%
Chan Ho Park               8%        44%        10%         5%        68%
Wil Ledezma                7%        40%        62%         0%        79%
Jose Ascanio               8%        38%        22%         1%        72%
Paul Maholm                1%        27%         0%         5%        83%
Brendan Donnelly          16%        39%        25%         2%        68%
Kevin Hart                 3%        24%        13%         0%        70%
Rudy Owens                 1%        21%         1%        44%        28%
Zach Duke                  1%        12%         0%        17%        39%
Charlie Morton             0%         7%         1%         0%        56%
Justin Thomas              1%        13%         2%         0%        41%
Chris Jakubauskas          4%        22%         1%         9%        51%
Vinnie Chulk               2%        16%         3%         2%        58%
Jeff Karstens              1%         7%         0%        15%        15%
Brian Bass                 0%         6%         0%         0%        68%
Chris Leroux               1%         9%         1%         0%        65%
Justin Wilson              0%         3%         4%         0%        49%
Brad Lincoln               0%         2%         0%         8%        15%
Bryan Morris               0%         3%         0%         0%        52%
Danny Moskos               0%         7%         1%         0%        64%
Joe Martinez               0%         3%         0%         1%        54%
Steven Jackson             0%         3%         0%         0%        40%
Brian Burres               0%         2%         0%         0%        29%
Michael Crotta             0%         1%         0%         7%        76%
Derek Hankins              0%         1%         0%         0%        20%
Donald Veal                0%         3%         7%         0%        36%
Daniel McCutchen           1%         2%         0%         4%         4%
Dana Eveland               0%         0%         0%         0%        62%
Anthony Claggett           0%         3%         0%         0%        44%
Jeremy Powell              0%         3%         1%         4%        28%
Ramon Aguero               0%         4%         0%         0%        59%
Tim Alderson               0%         0%         0%         2%        13%
Jared Hughes               0%         0%         0%         0%        16%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 07, 2010 at 09:03 PM | 46 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. charlie Posted: November 07, 2010 at 11:07 PM (#3685560)
Thanks for these, Dan. But please, leave Mickey White out of this. He wasn't a bad scouting director, having presided over some decent drafts in 2000 and 2001. Ed Creech was the malignant scouting director, not White.
   2. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 07, 2010 at 11:19 PM (#3685568)
The writing in the Transaction Oracle sounds more like Christina Kahl every day. If Dan disappears for a month and comes back as Danielle, I'm going to start to wonder if there isn't something in the beer at the SABR conferences.
   3. BDC Posted: November 07, 2010 at 11:21 PM (#3685569)
I just realized I had never heard of any of the position players on the Pittsburgh Pirates. (Several of the pitchers, yes.)

The Pirates didn't play Texas this year, and if they appeared on national TV I missed it, but still. I either need to start paying more attention to baseball, or Pittsburgh needs to get better.

Edit: Check that, I have certainly heard of Lastings Milledge, though I didn't know he'd washed up in Pittsburgh. And I had a vague sense of who Cedeno and Doumit were. I guess there's hope.
   4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 07, 2010 at 11:27 PM (#3685571)
I just realized I had never heard of any of the position players on the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Really? McCutcheon, Alvarez and Tabata were all big time prospects.
   5. cardsfanboy Posted: November 07, 2010 at 11:43 PM (#3685575)
I just realized I had never heard of any of the position players on the Pittsburgh Pirates


Just need to know two names Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez,(not to mention Tabata) but if you don't know those two it's somewhat shocking to see you on these boards. They have a good young team offensively, as the writing says, their bench destroyed their offense, looking at it positionally and by ops(age in paranethese)

c Doumit(30) 99
1b Jones(30) 101
2b Walker(25) 105
ss Cedeno(28) 81
3b Alvarez(24) 116
rf Milledge(26) 94
cf McCutchen(24)118
rf Tabata (22) 99

this is a team that last season finished last in the Nl in scoring, but talent wise based upon their starters should finish average. I'll take the over on Tabata and Milledgeon their OPS+. They really do need to improve at firstbase(have no idea what they have in the minors, and Jones is a year removed from a spectacular half season, so they'll probably roll with him)
   6. cardsfanboy Posted: November 07, 2010 at 11:43 PM (#3685576)
I just realized I had never heard of any of the position players on the Pittsburgh Pirates


Just need to know two names Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez, but if you don't know those two it's somewhat shocking to see you on these boards. They have a good young team offensively, as the writing says, their bench destroyed their offense, looking at it positionally and by ops(age in paranethese)

c Doumit(30) 99
1b Jones(30) 101
2b Walker(25) 105
ss Cedeno(28) 81
3b Alvarez(24) 116
rf Milledge(26) 94
cf McCutchen(24)118
rf Tabata (22) 99

this is a team that last season finished last in the Nl in scoring, but talent wise based upon their starters should finish average. I'll take the over on Tabata and Milledgeon their OPS+. They really do need to improve at firstbase(have no idea what they have in the minors, and Jones is a year removed from a spectacular half season, so they'll probably roll with him)
   7. monkhenry Posted: November 08, 2010 at 01:04 AM (#3685592)
Should the Cedeno fielding line be 2B and SS rather than 2B and 3B ?
   8. alkeiper Posted: November 08, 2010 at 01:05 AM (#3685593)
I've been conditioned to see Kyle Kendrick as an awful pitcher. Somehow, the Pirates got 130 starts out of worse pitchers last season. In a much better pitchers' park to boot. I don't know how Pirates fans stomached that.
   9. Gonfalon B. Posted: November 08, 2010 at 01:36 AM (#3685599)
The Pirates have had a pitcher with a winning record in every season since Sid Bream was safe (though 2001 was dire). It seems a bit mean of ZIPS not to throw somebody, anybody, a 7-5 record.

Gruesome trivia: the Pirates have had just one 15-game winner since 1992. Who?
   10. jfish26101 Posted: November 08, 2010 at 01:36 AM (#3685600)
Ahh, it is that time of the year. :)

While it is somewhat off-topic, I want my first post of the year to be me saying I was clearly wrong on Zobrist last year, but it was not completely due to factors he could control (his skill). His back issues were fairly well documented, which makes it pretty hard to play, let alone still play in 150+ games. His ISO was abysmal and his BABIP dropped significantly while his peripherals stayed relatively consistent (showing he still had a sound approach at the plate). I never thought he would be a 8+ WAR player but he still managed to post 3+ WAR, and I think he can be more.

I don't have much to say about the Pirates' projections above but wanted to get that out of the way and say that I'm excited to see the upcoming projections, and what the ZiPS disk may look like with more emphasis on splits and the help of DMB.

I am curious how you determine the order of projections though?

Thanks as always Dan.
   11. jfish26101 Posted: November 08, 2010 at 01:39 AM (#3685601)
Gruesome trivia: the Pirates have had just one 15-game winner since 1992. Who?

My first thought was Oliver Perez which proved to be wrong. I had to look it up, definitely sad seeing who their only 15 game winner was in that time period (if that truly is the only one).
   12. BDC Posted: November 08, 2010 at 02:07 AM (#3685612)
Oh, it's shocking to see me opine on any subject, I agree. But WRT the Pirates' younger players, I really don't follow prospects; their existence is fairly abstract for me. Players don't materialize for me till I see them play in the majors (whereupon they become pretty concrete). So since I never have a chance to see the Pirates play (and have no interest in fantasy baseball), I really have no idea who they are; they gather almost zero national press as MLB performers. Sad but true: to a lot of AL fans these younger guys might as well still be in AAA.
   13. JJ1986 Posted: November 08, 2010 at 02:19 AM (#3685622)
Gruesome trivia: the Pirates have had just one 15-game winner since 1992. Who?


Neagle?
   14. STEAGLES is all out of bubblegum Posted: November 08, 2010 at 02:24 AM (#3685623)

Last year was reverse order by team nickname. This year is lowest payroll to highest. Next year will be highest payroll to lowest. Then something else for 2013.
great. i guess we'll be seeing the phillies in march.
   15. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 08, 2010 at 02:33 AM (#3685630)
great. i guess we'll be seeing the phillies in march.

The rest of the NL is playing the world's smallest violin for you. It must be so hard to root for the Phils.
   16. BobbyS Posted: November 08, 2010 at 02:33 AM (#3685631)
Glad to see these starting! Thanks, Dan!

You said that the process will be quicker this year with DMB doing the disk...does that mean we'll see a smaller amount of time between each team?
   17. Walt Davis Posted: November 08, 2010 at 02:37 AM (#3685635)
That is one depressing Zach Duke projection.

That's a pretty nice Alvarez projection, especially given he strikes out at least once before he's even had a chance to brush his teeth. :-)

And I seriously doubt Neil Walker plays nearly 1800 games in the majors. (You'll do a little time in hell for making Pirates fans look at that LaRoche projection.)

They have a good young team offensively, as the writing says, their bench destroyed their offense

Alas, it's basically the same bench. I wouldn't call them a _good_ young team offensively ... but, yes, nice to see them above-average at some defensive positions which they might be able to supplement with decent players at the corners at some point. Anyway, they might score more than Houston and out-OPS+ the Cubs (ack!) this year but they'll be among the lowest-scoring teams in the NL.

but talent wise based upon their starters should finish average

A curious way of putting it. Based just on their starters, most teams "should" finish above-average. Every team's offense gets dragged down by their bench.

But yes, some hope here, especially in the Sanchez projection. Offensively the young Pirates project as above-average at C, 2B, 3B and CF and while Tabata doesn't project as a hitter (yet) the defense gives him a boost. Unfortunately, Walker and Alvarez looked pretty bad with the glove last year.

And the pitching projects as horrible. By projection, their intended 5-man rotation will have 2 replacement-level guys in it. Still, last year the Pirates got 130 starts from guys with an ERA+ below 85 ... 2011 can't really be any worse I guess.

So I won't guarantee them 100 losses and I probably won't declare them the worst team in baseball for 2011. Progress!
   18. STEAGLES is all out of bubblegum Posted: November 08, 2010 at 02:43 AM (#3685636)

great. i guess we'll be seeing the phillies in march.

The rest of the NL is playing the world's smallest violin for you. It must be so hard to root for the Phils.
heh. coming from a dodgers fan, i can understand your frustration, but just two years ago, you gave manny ramirez 45 million. it's not like your team is crying poor, so don't blame the phillies for leveraging their resources into building a new paradigm just because your team couldn't do it.
   19. Autobahn Posted: November 08, 2010 at 02:51 AM (#3685639)
I think cat vomit looks better than those starting pitching projections.
   20. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 08, 2010 at 02:52 AM (#3685640)
heh. coming from a dodgers fan, i can understand your frustration, but just two years ago, you gave manny ramirez 45 million. it's not like your team is crying poor, so don't blame the phillies for leveraging their resources into building a new paradigm just because your team couldn't do it.

What if it came from a Mets fan?
   21. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: November 08, 2010 at 06:23 AM (#3685702)
ZIPS is back. Awesome.
   22. DCW3 Posted: November 08, 2010 at 07:20 AM (#3685719)
Alas, it's basically the same bench.

Church and Iwamura and Crosby are all gone, though, and you have to think that even the Pirates could find some guys who could outperform them.
   23. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: November 08, 2010 at 10:10 AM (#3685733)
ZIPS is back. Awesome.


Amen.

I'm keeping Alvarez. That's a pretty impressive projection. One thing that sort of stands out to me is the rbi total. I know rbi's are not an important stat, but I'm a little surprised that a projection system has it that high for any player, let alone a guy who's going to be batting in the Pirates line up. Is that normal?
   24. Mess with the Meat, you get the Wad! Posted: November 08, 2010 at 10:45 AM (#3685734)
Hey dan, your dusclaimer still says 2009 also does the era for the nl and al change from year to year? If so might want to update that as well
   25. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 08, 2010 at 12:22 PM (#3685737)
Yay ZiPS!

It looks like they should move Alvarez to 1B and Walker to 3B and get some slick fielder to play 2B.
   26. realteamcoach Posted: November 08, 2010 at 03:14 PM (#3685780)
Without looking...is the 15 game winner Todd Ritchie? For some reason, I thought he had a random strong season with Pittsburgh.
   27. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 08, 2010 at 03:56 PM (#3685797)
eww stinky team
   28. Gonfalon B. Posted: November 08, 2010 at 04:02 PM (#3685799)
Without looking...is the 15 game winner Todd Ritchie? For some reason, I thought he had a random strong season with Pittsburgh.

Ding ding ding ding. Unlike Pittsburgh, we have a winner.
   29. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 08, 2010 at 05:23 PM (#3685862)
It looks like they should move Alvarez to 1B and Walker to 3B and get some slick fielder to play 2B.


At BD, we've been saying this for months. Not that anybody's going to listen. O-Dawg would be a perfect fit.

But please, leave Mickey White out of this. He wasn't a bad scouting director, having presided over some decent drafts in 2000 and 2001. Ed Creech was the malignant scouting director, not White.


Yup. With the possible exception of the current guy, White is easily the team's best scouting director of the last 25 years, and he didn't break anything important in his brief time as interim GM.
   30. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 08, 2010 at 05:25 PM (#3685866)
That is one depressing Zach Duke projection.


Given that he's a high-BIP pitcher in front of a crap defense, I think that's actually a pretty generous line.
   31. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 08, 2010 at 05:39 PM (#3685878)
At BD, we've been saying this for months.

What's BD?
   32. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: November 08, 2010 at 05:53 PM (#3685898)
Bonifay Disease.
   33. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 08, 2010 at 11:22 PM (#3686214)
What's BD?


Bucs Dugout.
   34. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 09, 2010 at 01:40 AM (#3686348)
Yay zips! But... no sean gallagher?
   35. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: November 09, 2010 at 08:20 PM (#3686782)
I would be curious to see how Diego Moreno would project -- his hi-A peripherals were eye gouging, and though he struggled w/ runs in a short AA cup of joe, his k and bb rate still looked good. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see him in the bullpen by the end of the year.

And I certainly thought Steve Pearce would have a bit more OBP in his projection. Oh well.
   36. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 10, 2010 at 02:45 AM (#3687088)
I have to wonder what Alvarez's projection would look like if his season had ended on September 21. His final numbers wound up as good as they did because he beat up on second-line pitching over the last week and a half (despite what some folks are saying about *late-season adjustments*, he hadn't hit much of anything for about a month before that season-ending stretch). I think good pitchers will continue to find ways to get him out.

-- MWE
   37. danielj Posted: November 10, 2010 at 11:38 PM (#3687682)
You should have posted those pitching projections on Halloween.
   38. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: November 10, 2010 at 11:47 PM (#3687695)
I would be curious to see how Diego Moreno would project -- his hi-A peripherals were eye gouging, and though he struggled w/ runs in a short AA cup of joe, his k and bb rate still looked good. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see him in the bullpen by the end of the year.


This paragraph appears to imply that eye-gouging is a good thing, which I'm going to have to disagree with.
   39. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: November 11, 2010 at 04:29 AM (#3687872)
Also, Dan, where's Jeff Clement?
   40. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 11, 2010 at 05:25 AM (#3687896)
Jeff Clement is 254/312/449, Quintile odds 2%, 9%, 15%, 34%, 40%. Sorry for the miss!
   41. Lassus Posted: November 11, 2010 at 06:41 AM (#3687914)
heh. coming from a dodgers fan, i can understand your frustration, but just two years ago, you gave manny ramirez 45 million. it's not like your team is crying poor, so don't blame the phillies for leveraging their resources into building a new paradigm just because your team couldn't do it.

Russlan is part of the BTF Mets Army of Darkness, steagles. (Although he's one of the optimists, like me.)
   42. amisaid1 Posted: November 16, 2010 at 08:32 PM (#3691215)
Dan,

Great work as usual. Could we get a Sean Gallagher prediction? He finished the season in Pittsburgh after coming over from San Diego.

Thanks again!
   43. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: December 15, 2010 at 04:22 AM (#3711008)
Thanks Dan!

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