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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, November 08, 2010

2011 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres

The way the season ended was extremely disappointing, but the Padres should still come away from the 2010 season pleased with how the team performed.

The bullpen was ridiculous for most of the season and while the drop in offense and the low park factor meant the non-Latos starters were quite a bit overrated in the rare instance the national media mentioned the Padres, the bullpen earned its plaudits.  It kind of reminded me of the early-aughts Angel bullpens, which featured low-cost pickup after low-cost pickup turning the late innings into Battle of Verdun reenactments.

Now, can they repeat it?  Hard to tell at this point with Adrian Gonzalez’s short-term and long-term status being unknown.  Well, short-term status at least - his long-term status probably involves him making large sacks of money in a different city.

One starter that wasn’t overrated, as reference above, was Mat Latos.  While I had him translated in the low-mid 3s for the 2009 season, ZiPS was a bit skeptical and pegged Latos as a good, not great starter.  Well, the data came in, and ZiPS has moved into pro-Latos territory.

One thing the team needs to sort out is they’ve accumulated an impressive logjam of adequate-nothing-special corner outfielders under contract.  The team isn’t likely to be a big spender anytime soon, so it’s very important for the team to figure out who they want to trust in the mid-term and who of the remaining have trade value.

Just as a reminder (since we’re early in the offseason) that players are listed with their most recent teams where practicable.  So Jon Garland, foolishly turning down nearly $7 million to play in the league’s best environment for pitchers, is still listed below.

Next up:  A’s

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Adrian Gonzalez   L    1B  29   .293 .394 .522 155 567  94 166  32   1  32 100  93 117   0   0  152
Chase Headley     B    3B  27   .274 .342 .418 160 594  80 163  35   4  14  68  58 152  11   3  110
Ryan Ludwick      R    RF  32   .258 .329 .445 139 481  65 124  26   2  20  75  47 123   2   4  113
Will Venable      L    RF  28   .255 .323 .407 145 487  71 124  20   6  14  58  46 139  18   4  101
Oscar Salazar     R    LF  33   .268 .317 .413 113 317  41  85  18   2   8  49  24  48   2   3  101
Mike Baxter       L    RF  26   .259 .328 .397 147 526  74 136  29   7  10  65  51 102  11   7  101
Matt Stairs       L    LF  40   .209 .311 .429  78  91  12  19   5   0   5  14  13  29   1   0  103
Aaron Cunningham  R    LF  25   .257 .321 .394 144 505  72 130  29   5  10  65  42 128   9   8   98
James Darnell     R    3B  24   .246 .325 .385 133 509  62 125  29   3  12  63  56 112   4   3   97
Scott Hairston    R    LF  31   .240 .306 .395 110 337  41  81  17   1  11  41  29  76   6   1   93
Miguel Tejada     R    SS  37   .271 .306 .383 143 579  71 157  30   1  11  65  22  59   3   2   90
Chris Denorfia    R    LF  30   .258 .305 .381 114 388  54 100  19   4   7  41  27  60  10   5   90
Nick Hundley      R    C   27   .245 .302 .401  99 339  40  83  19   2  10  47  29  86   2   3   94
Tony Gwynn        L    CF  28   .254 .329 .335 131 394  54 100  13   5   3  27  43  65  18   6   85
Kyle Blanks       R    LF  24   .222 .321 .370 103 351  42  78  15   2  11  51  43 119   2   1   92
Jerry Hairston    R    SS  35   .254 .310 .369 108 355  50  90  16   2   7  40  26  46   9   5   88
Jarrett Hoffpauir R    2B  28   .243 .316 .365 121 436  46 106  23   3   8  43  46  45   4   2   89
Everth Cabrera    B    SS  24   .248 .322 .334 123 431  62 107  19   6   2  43  42 111  31  12   83
Kyle Phillips     L    1B  27   .261 .309 .355  90 318  28  83  13   1   5  33  22  60   0   0   84
David Eckstein    R    2B  36   .268 .324 .328 111 411  49 110  22   0   1  33  27  34   5   1   82
Yorvit Torrealba  R    C   32   .254 .319 .355  84 287  28  73  14   0   5  33  25  58   3   3   87
Logan Forsythe    R    2B  24   .235 .340 .321 133 507  81 119  23   3   5  47  77 142  13   4   86
Luis Durango      B    CF  25   .271 .345 .301 143 495  73 134   9   3   0  30  56  84  29  14   82
Cedric Hunter     L    CF  23   .253 .297 .352 160 651  90 165  28   9   6  67  41  60  12   6   80
Craig Stansberry  R    3B  29   .238 .314 .344 112 378  49  90  18   2   6  31  40  81   6   6   83
Wily Mo Pena      R    1B  29   .244 .287 .350  47 160  16  39   5   0   4  19  10  45   0   1   76
Chris Stewart     R    C   29   .234 .303 .326  82 261  26  61  13   1   3  23  22  38   1   1   75
Matt Antonelli    R    2B  26   .216 .309 .322  90 329  46  71  13   2   6  30  40  71   6   3   76
Sean Kazmar       R    SS  26   .237 .289 .325 138 493  58 117  21   2   6  48  35  92   7   2   70
Sawyer Carroll    L    RF  25   .226 .300 .333 129 483  59 109  24   5   6  58  51 152   5   6   76
Dusty Ryan        R    C   26   .200 .296 .332  92 295  29  59  13   1   8  32  39 118   2   1   74
Eric Munson       L    1B  33   .194 .295 .311  60 196  19  38   8   0   5  24  26  46   0   1   69
Kellen Kulbacki   L    LF  25   .210 .280 .324  65 238  26  50  10   1   5  25  22  58   1   2   67
Josh Barfield     R    2B  28   .239 .263 .317  93 331  32  79  15   1   3  31  11  62   6   3   61
Nick Green        R    SS  32   .213 .263 .329  96 310  31  66  14   2   6  33  18  81   2   4   64

Defensive Projections

Player             CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Adrian Gonzalez            AV/86
Chase Headley                              VG/94           FR/113
Ryan Ludwick                                               AV/101  PO/121  AV/57
Will Venable                                               VG/118  FR/183  VG/98
Oscar Salazar              FR/111  PO/133  PO/133          FR/118          FR/102
Mike Baxter                AV/91           PO/148          AV/102  PO/124  AV/110
Matt Stairs                                                PO/102          PO/107
Aaron Cunningham                                           AV/179  FR/179  FR/136
James Darnell                              AV/181
Scott Hairston                                             AV/70   FR/157  FR/114
Miguel Tejada                              AV/112  FR/83
Chris Denorfia                                             AV/89   FR/95   AV/114
Nick Hundley       AV
Tony Gwynn                                                 VG/119  EX/158  VG/119
Kyle Blanks                FR/109                          FR/109          FR/109
Jerry Hairston                     AV/90   AV/133  AV/101  AV/98   FR/128  101/
Jarrett Hoffpauir                  AV/145  AV/119  FR/145
Everth Cabrera                     AV/152          AV/179
Kyle Phillips      AV      AV/107          FR/126
David Eckstein                     AV/33           FR/123
Yorvit Torrealba   AV
Logan Forsythe                     FR/160  VG/147
Luis Durango                                               VG/195  VG/172
Cedric Hunter                                              VG/135  AV/104
Craig Stansberry                   AV/111  VG/141  FR/134
Wily Mo Pena               FR/148                          PO/145          PO/145
Chris Stewart      VG
Matt Antonelli                     AV/120
Sean Kazmar                        AV/114          FR/112
Sawyer Carroll             FR/142                          AV/158          AV/158
Dusty Ryan         FR       #REF!
Eric Munson        FR      AV/152          PR/124
Kellen Kulbacki                                            FR/132          FR/132
Josh Barfield                      VG/113  AV/130          AV/98   FR/117
Nick Green                         FR/117  FR/120  FR/148  FR/112          FR/112

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Mat Latos         R     23    3.06    11    6   23   22  126.7  100   43   12   39  124  123
Clayton Richard   L     27    4.00    10   10   34   29  175.3  174   78   15   67  124   94
Jon Garland       R     31    4.05    12   12   31   31  191.3  191   86   19   73  114   93
Tim Stauffer      R     29    4.16     5    6   32   15  101.7  105   47    9   36   71   91
Chris Young       R     32    4.18     3    3   10   10   51.7   44   24    7   25   44   90
Simon Castro      R     23    4.41     7    9   28   27  136.7  137   67   14   57  102   85
Wade LeBlanc      L     26    4.52     9   12   31   29  163.3  164   82   23   58  129   83
Kevin Correia     R     30    4.52     8   11   29   27  153.3  156   77   17   60  115   83
Cory Luebke       L     26    4.71     6    9   24   23  124.3  130   65   15   47   82   80
Will Inman        R     24    4.95     4    6   17   17   92.7   96   51   13   41   60   76
Cesar Ramos       L     27    5.38     5   10   34   19  110.3  129   66   11   56   66   70
Radhames Liz      R     27    5.43     5   10   28   23  122.7  140   74   17   58   87   69
Jeremy Hefner     R     25    5.44     7   14   30   29  152.3  174   92   20   69   98   69
Josh Geer         R     28    5.79     6   14   30   27  168.0  209  108   28   46   81   65
Nathan Culp       L     26    6.03     5   13   30   26  143.3  194   96   18   42   56   63
Cesar Carrillo    R     27    6.23     4   12   25   25  124.3  152   86   18   65   61   61
Tyler Lumsden     L     28    6.73     3   11   29   17   99.0  132   74   11   67   36   56

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Mike Adams        R     32    2.70     3    1   57    0   56.7   43   17    4   20   64  140
Heath Bell        R     33    2.74     6    2   63    0   65.7   52   20    4   26   76  138
Luke Gregerson    R     27    3.07     7    3   71    0   73.3   57   25    6   27   83  123
Ernesto Frieri    R     25    3.36     4    3   68    0   67.0   51   25    6   39   74  112
Joe Thatcher      L     29    3.38     3    2   68    0   53.3   47   20    4   19   58  112
Edward Mujica     R     27    3.64     3    3   61    0   76.7   71   31   10   17   71  104
Ryan Webb         R     25    3.86     4    4   66    1   77.0   78   33    6   27   58   98
Scott Munter      R     31    4.62     3    4   48    0   60.3   62   31    5   34   40   82
Adam Russell      R     28    4.65     5    7   59    0   69.7   70   36    6   42   55   81
Luis Perdomo      R     27    4.66     3    5   54    1   73.3   72   38    8   42   52   81
Mike Koplove      R     34    4.74     1    2   39    0   49.3   49   26    6   28   36   79
Greg Burke        R     28    4.82     3    4   59    0   65.3   67   35   10   28   50   78
Aaron Poreda      L     24    5.53     2    3   51    1   57.0   49   35    5   72   51   68

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Adrian Gonzalez     .276  .362  .477  2282  8533  1241  2358   462    19   405  1337  1126  1586     1   130
Chase Headley       .266  .330  .396  2089  7761   956  2065   420    38   171   845   702  1703   134   101
Ryan Ludwick        .257  .326  .442  1334  4539   604  1168   246    15   188   709   415  1069    26   107
Will Venable        .253  .320  .397  1188  3950   556  1000   157    41   110   464   368  1017   127    98
David Eckstein      .278  .341  .350  1555  5954   806  1654   279    20    37   464   430   488   132    86
Miguel Tejada       .281  .329  .441  2560 10128  1436  2849   551    27   338  1487   605  1216    91   104

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Jon Garland        185  172    1    4.27  490  467     2916 3012 1385  341 1035 1617    101

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Adrian Gonzalez   1B    74%  19%   5%   2%   0%      Willie Aikens        Boog Powell       Jason Giambi
Chase Headley     3B    21%  34%  24%  15%   7%        Mark Teahen      Travis Fryman       Brook Jacoby
Ryan Ludwick      RF    12%  25%  21%  22%  20%        Lee Stevens        Dean Palmer      Geoff Jenkins
Will Venable      RF     7%  22%  22%  25%  24%     Michael Tucker       Pat Sheridan          Gary Ward
Oscar Salazar     LF     2%  11%  16%  26%  45%      Darnell Coles         Herb Perry        Jeff Conine
Mike Baxter       RF     4%  14%  17%  25%  40%      Scott Lusader      Terrence Long         Adam Riggs
Matt Stairs       LF    11%  17%  16%  21%  34%         Jeff Manto        Alan Zinter         Jay Buhner
Aaron Cunningham  LF     1%   8%  14%  26%  52%      Ivan Calderon      LaVel Freeman         Adam Riggs
James Darnell     3B     4%  15%  22%  28%  32%         Kory Casto        Eric Duncan         Tim Hulett
Scott Hairston    LF     2%  10%  15%  26%  47%         John Valle     Brandon Berger        Matt Mieske
Miguel Tejada     SS    11%  15%  29%  28%  17%      Frank Malzone       Cookie Rojas         Cal Ripken
Chris Denorfia    LF     1%   5%   9%  20%  66%          Ira Smith       Garey Ingram    Dallas Williams
Nick Hundley      C      7%  25%  25%  25%  17%     Jeff Grotewold         Bill Hayes      Humberto Cota
Tony Gwynn        CF     3%   8%  23%  34%  32%         Greg Tubbs         Eric Owens       Bruce Dostal
Kyle Blanks       LF     2%   6%   9%  19%  64%        Ben Shelton       Jeff Hermann       Jim Betzsold
Jerry Hairston    SS    10%  14%  27%  28%  21%          Billy Cox        Dickie Thon    Manny Alexander
Jarrett Hoffpauir 2B     7%  10%  16%  27%  39%  Steve Lombardozzi         Joe Dillon         Rico Rossy
Everth Cabrera    SS     8%  19%  32%  25%  15%      Harry Chappas        Bob Meacham     Mariano Duncan
Kyle Phillips     1B     0%   1%   2%  14%  83%          Jim Bowie       Mike Eylward     Hunter Bledsoe
David Eckstein    2B     4%   7%  13%  27%  49%         Joe Stripp       Cookie Rojas        Jim Gantner
Yorvit Torrealba  C      4%  15%  21%  30%  29%      Charlie Berry     Robert Machado        Juan Espino
Logan Forsythe    2B     6%  10%  16%  28%  39%      Dan Cholowsky       Joe Lawrence     Timothy Hulett
Luis Durango      CF     2%   4%  14%  31%  49%          Alex Cole      Willy Taveras      Luis Mercedes
Cedric Hunter     CF     2%   3%   9%  24%  63%       Clay Timpner        Alexis Rios       John Roberts
Craig Stansberry  3B     0%   3%   7%  17%  73%      Jason Maxwell        Luis Rivera     Casey Benjamin
Wily Mo Pena      1B     0%   0%   1%   6%  93%    Juan Richardson        Jeremy Ware Alberto Concepcion
Chris Stewart     C      1%   5%  10%  27%  57%    Dave Van Gorder          Dave Toth      Doug Newstrom
Matt Antonelli    2B     3%   2%   5%  12%  78%     James Guerrero          Taber Lee      Jason Camilli
Sean Kazmar       SS     2%   3%  10%  26%  59%        Joey Aragon    Kevin Polcovich     Wilson Delgado
Sawyer Carroll    RF     0%   0%   1%   4%  95%        Jim Beswick       Randy Salava         Mike Neill
Dusty Ryan        C      2%   5%  10%  27%  57%     Henry Mercedes         David Ross        Dan Whitmer
Eric Munson       1B     0%   0%   1%   3%  96%         Jody Davis           Dave May       Ryan McGuire
Kellen Kulbacki   LF     0%   0%   1%   2%  97%Garrick Haltiwanger      Gerad Cawhorn     Roger Haggerty
Josh Barfield     2B     0%   1%   1%   3%  95%      Chris Lemonis        Jace Brewer        Luis Garcia
Nick Green        SS     1%   1%   3%   6%  90%  Trace Coquillette         Kevin Baez     Steve Scarsone

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Mike Adams        RP     67%   28%    4%         Joe Nathan       Scot Shields           Robb Nen
Heath Bell        RP     62%   34%    5%       Rich Gossage         Paul Shuey  Francisco Cordero
Mat Latos         SP     79%   20%    1%      Roger Clemens     Pedro Martinez         Jake Peavy
Luke Gregerson    RP     53%   40%    7%   Xavier Hernandez     Tom Niedenfuer          Ron Davis
Ernesto Frieri    RP     32%   49%   19%         Eric Plunk     Bobby Castillo       Mike Jackson
Joe Thatcher      RP     36%   47%   17%   Willie Hernandez         Dan Plesac   Paul Assenmacher
Edward Mujica     RP     18%   50%   31%      Jose Melendez        Julio Mateo        Luis DeLeon
Ryan Webb         RP      9%   53%   38%      Manuel Corpas     Julian Tavarez  Franquelis Osoria
Clayton Richard   SP     16%   59%   26%      Andy Pettitte         Zane Smith      Chris Hammond
Jon Garland       SP     13%   59%   29%         Jim Slaton       Andy Hawkins     Kirk McCaskill
Tim Stauffer      SP      4%   36%   60%      Rick Lysander       Sean Bergman       Doug Brocail
Chris Young       SP     20%   36%   44%         Jim Stoops      Robert Person         Mario Soto
Simon Castro      SP      6%   43%   51%        Kelly Downs    Brian Bannister        Mike Maddux
Wade LeBlanc      SP      3%   34%   63%      Rheal Cormier      Lance Painter      Patrick Misch
Kevin Correia     SP      2%   34%   64%        Paul Wilson        Chris Brock    Chris Carpenter
Scott Munter      RP      3%   19%   79%       Jake Robbins      Jerry Johnson       Tim Corcoran
Adam Russell      RP      1%   18%   80%     Ryan Henderson    Gabriel Dehoyos       Dan Reichert
Luis Perdomo      RP      1%   16%   83%     Tony Dougherty        Mike DeJean     Jamie Emiliano
Cory Luebke       SP      2%   28%   71%    John Rheinecker       Eddie Priest         Tom Urbani
Mike Koplove      RP      5%   16%   79%          David Lee        Pat Mahomes     Jason Childers
Greg Burke        RP      1%   12%   88%        Mark Guerra       Erik Bennett         Jack Hardy
Will Inman        SP      2%   19%   79%      Shad Williams       Brent Hansen  Clay Christiansen
Cesar Ramos       SP      0%    5%   95%       Jason Cromer       Heath Murray       Jeff Granger
Radhames Liz      SP      0%    4%   95%      Mark Nussbeck       Pete Janicki           Lou Pote
Jeremy Hefner     SP      0%    3%   97%          Rich Yett       Sonny Garcia        Kevin Olsen
Aaron Poreda      RP      0%    4%   96%       Onan Masaoka         Matt Garza       Brian Snyder
Josh Geer         SP      0%    1%   99%       Mark Johnson       Heath Totten      Mark DiFelice
Nathan Culp       SP      0%    0%  100%     Randy Marshall       Brian Shouse        Mike Ramsey
Cesar Carrillo    SP      0%    0%  100%      Edward Valdez    Bryan Eversgerd     Hatuey Mendoza
Tyler Lumsden     SP      0%    0%  100%       Terrell Wade     Kevin Rawitzer       Rich Rundles

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Adrian Gonzalez         37%      69%      64%       6%       0%      58%      68%       0%
Chase Headley           13%      10%       3%      13%       3%       2%       4%       3%
Ryan Ludwick             5%       5%      10%       1%       1%       7%       7%       0%
Will Venable             3%       3%       1%       0%      10%       0%       1%       4%
Oscar Salazar           12%       2%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Mike Baxter              4%       4%       1%       2%      25%       0%       2%       0%
Matt Stairs              3%      12%      11%       0%       0%       0%       4%       0%
Aaron Cunningham         4%       2%       1%       1%       9%       0%       0%       0%
James Darnell            1%       3%       1%       1%       2%       0%       1%       0%
Scott Hairston           1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Miguel Tejada           11%       0%       3%       3%       0%       3%       2%       0%
Chris Denorfia           4%       1%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       1%
Nick Hundley             2%       1%       2%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Tony Gwynn               3%       5%       0%       0%       5%       0%       0%       6%
Kyle Blanks              0%       4%       1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Jerry Hairston           5%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Jarrett Hoffpauir        1%       2%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Everth Cabrera           2%       3%       0%       0%      17%       0%       0%      51%
Kyle Phillips            7%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
David Eckstein          10%       4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Yorvit Torrealba         7%       5%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Logan Forsythe           0%       8%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       2%
Luis Durango            11%      13%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%      44%
Cedric Hunter            2%       0%       1%       2%      40%       0%       0%       0%
Craig Stansberry         1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Wily Mo Pena             6%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Stewart            1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Matt Antonelli           0%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Sean Kazmar              0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Sawyer Carroll           0%       0%       0%       0%       7%       0%       0%       0%
Dusty Ryan               0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Eric Munson              0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Kellen Kulbacki          0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Barfield            1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Nick Green               0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Mike Adams                67%        94%        96%         7%        88%
Heath Bell                62%        93%        98%         2%        95%
Mat Latos                 42%        92%        74%         7%        75%
Luke Gregerson            46%        88%        94%         2%        83%
Ernesto Frieri            25%        76%        93%         0%        72%
Joe Thatcher              36%        77%        90%         7%        91%
Edward Mujica             14%        62%        61%        61%        44%
Ryan Webb                  6%        48%         6%         4%        93%
Clayton Richard            2%        37%         2%         1%        90%
Jon Garland                2%        34%         1%         1%        68%
Tim Stauffer               2%        29%         2%         2%        81%
Chris Young                7%        33%        34%         0%        46%
Simon Castro               1%        17%         6%         0%        66%
Wade LeBlanc               0%        11%        12%         1%        20%
Kevin Correia              0%         9%         6%         0%        56%
Scott Munter               2%        16%         4%         0%        84%
Adam Russell               1%        15%        16%         0%        87%
Luis Perdomo               0%        10%         4%         0%        57%
Cory Luebke                0%         8%         0%         1%        47%
Mike Koplove               4%        17%        10%         0%        49%
Greg Burke                 1%         9%        10%         1%        26%
Will Inman                 0%         6%         0%         0%        32%
Cesar Ramos                0%         1%         0%         0%        72%
Radhames Liz               0%         1%         1%         0%        32%
Jeremy Hefner              0%         0%         0%         0%        33%
Aaron Poreda               0%         3%        45%         0%        81%
Josh Geer                  0%         0%         0%        15%         9%
Nathan Culp                0%         0%         0%        11%        42%
Cesar Carrillo             0%         0%         0%         0%        22%
Tyler Lumsden              0%         0%         0%         0%        62%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 08, 2010 at 04:26 PM | 25 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: November 08, 2010 at 05:12 PM (#3685848)
i asked about chase headley last year, since his 2010 ZiPS were lower than his MLB performance in 2008 and 2009, and well below his minor league performance in 2008 and 2007.

i'm gonna ask about him again right now, because he only OPS'd .702 in 2010, and yet, his 2011 ZiPS shot up 58 points above that performance.


what's going on here?
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 08, 2010 at 05:18 PM (#3685851)
So, do the Padres have money to spend?

They would seem to be the team that could gain most from Carl Crawford, even if they overpay. With a little offense, they could be dangerous, and Crawford's game seems less likely to be hurt by Petco. It would also help them re-up Gonzalez.
   3. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 08, 2010 at 05:40 PM (#3685879)
i'm gonna ask about him again right now, because he only OPS'd .702 in 2010, and yet, his 2011 ZiPS shot up 58 points above that performance.


Actually, he almost exactly hit his projection - a 100 OPS+ was projected and he had a 97.

What's different this year is that ZiPS is much less worried about his downside and he was underestimated last year thanks to a bug that was overpenalizing some high-BABIP players (Headley and Snider most especially).
   4. Travolta19 Posted: November 08, 2010 at 05:43 PM (#3685882)
Why does Latos only project for 126 IP when he threw 184 last year in his first full year?

Guys like Liz, Carrillo, and Castro project for more innings but have never thrown as many as they even project for in the majors, or haven't even pitched in the majors. Carrillo has much more injury risk than Latos, if that's the reason.
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 08, 2010 at 05:47 PM (#3685887)
Regression plus only throwing 120 in 2009.

Playing time should be the part of all projections taken the least seriously - it's just that it's better than simply expressing everything as a rate.
   6. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: November 08, 2010 at 05:49 PM (#3685890)
ZIPs really doesn't project playing time. If you add up the innings, they aren't going to equal 1450 or so.
   7. Travolta19 Posted: November 08, 2010 at 05:54 PM (#3685899)
OK, makes sense, thanks
   8. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: November 08, 2010 at 05:56 PM (#3685903)

Actually, he almost exactly hit his projection - a 100 OPS+ was projected and he had a 97.

What's different this year is that ZiPS is much less worried about his downside and he was underestimated last year thanks to a bug that was overpenalizing some high-BABIP players (Headley and Snider most especially).
so it's you i have to blame for my sim league team's poor performance. :)


just curious, but how might the bug you're talking about affect high BB players such as logan forsythe? it's seemed to me that minor league translations regress BBs very heavily, turning every BB that is taken away into an out, but it looks to me like this tends to be unduly pessimistic, at least as it relates to players with elite BB rates.

do you have any thoughts on that? am i completely off the mark on this?
   9. Moe Greene Posted: November 08, 2010 at 06:05 PM (#3685913)
Latos's top comps are Clemens, Pedro, and Peavy. I like Latos as much as the next guy, but I have to admit I don't quite see him in the "among the best of all-time / best in the generation" class.
   10. Spivey Posted: November 08, 2010 at 06:30 PM (#3685935)
Latos's top comps are Clemens, Pedro, and Peavy. I like Latos as much as the next guy, but I have to admit I don't quite see him in the "among the best of all-time / best in the generation" class.


There's not a whole lot of options for those comparison algorithms when you come up at age 22 and post a 2.92 ERA while striking out more than a guy an inning.
   11. John DiFool2 Posted: November 08, 2010 at 06:30 PM (#3685936)
One guy you never hear in HoF discussions is Tejada. But you'll have a SS with over 800 xbh (if he plays next year-30 short), combined ~2500 runs/RBIs, was very durable, and an MVP trophy. But looking up his WAR I'm shocked it's only 42/44-neither BBRef/Fangraphs like his D (and perhaps they're right)-still at first glance it seems inconceivable that a SS with his power numbers would be that low, D or no D. His base batting line looks rather similar to Yount's but Robin's got about 3000 PAs on him, and a better peak (and a better glove, as a SS at least) in a lower offensive era.
   12. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: November 08, 2010 at 06:56 PM (#3685959)
Simply eyeballing, but the Padres don't look like a great team for next year. Though I suspect Blanks beats his comp handily. But only one above-average starter, good-but-not-great relief, and one guy carrying the whole offense. Not good.
   13. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 08, 2010 at 06:58 PM (#3685960)
There's not a whole lot of options for those comparison algorithms when you come up at age 22 and post a 2.92 ERA while striking out more than a guy an inning.

Yup. ZiPS does take pay attention to how many comps there are and how good the comps are. There's just not much to dislike in Latos's professional history, either - he went from short-season ball to dominating AA and AAA in a very short time.
   14. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 08, 2010 at 07:05 PM (#3685965)
Going down the line with Latos is Kevin Millwood, Scott Sanderson, Dwight Gooden, Don Drysdale, Ismael Valdez, Andy Benes, Kevin Appier, Bert Blyleven, Dennis Eckersley, David Nied, Roy Oswalt, Alex Fernandez, Javier Vazquez, Bret Saberhagen, Mike Mussina, and Pedro Astacio. There's really only one complete flop there and even Nied might have turned it around if he hadn't injured his elbow.
   15. Rays&Sox; Posted: November 08, 2010 at 07:51 PM (#3686005)
I was hoping to see projections for a few of the relief arms that worked in SA this year. I think there's a decent chance Evan Scribner or Brandon Gomes could leapfrog a few of the lower guys on the list like Russell, Perdomo, and Munter.
   16. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: November 08, 2010 at 08:05 PM (#3686024)
ZIPS and Goldstein's Top 11 Prospects debuting on the same day. Suddenly November is looking up.
   17. Walt Davis Posted: November 08, 2010 at 11:54 PM (#3686241)
Yet, despite comping to Clemens, Pedro and Peavy, ZiPS didn't see any point in projecting Latos' career. ZiPS needs to have its audience model tweaked. :-)

Insanely good comps for Mike Adams too; Bell not doing too shabby.

I think that offense is worse than the Pirates. Same set of OPS+ projections but the Pirates are all at C, 2B, 3B and CF while the Padres have 9 corner OFs with a 100 OPS+.

The Kyle Blanks projection does not suggest "Adrian Gonzalez replacement."
   18. GEB4000 Posted: November 09, 2010 at 04:34 PM (#3686619)
At least Matt Stairs is getting younger.
   19. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: November 11, 2010 at 12:11 AM (#3687708)
This team doesn't scare anyone, we need some offense. I would love Crawford in a Pads uni but it ain't gonna happen, sadly, would also love a couple of starting pitchers... a 2b man would be nice, and a SS...

I like the bullpen, tho.
   20. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: November 12, 2010 at 07:02 PM (#3688908)
BTW, I'm hearing a rumor on the Pads trading A-Gon to the BoSox for Lowrie, Ellsbury and Bard.

Anyone know if this has any legs?
   21. Rants Mulliniks Posted: November 12, 2010 at 07:57 PM (#3688950)
Matt Stairs will actually be 43 next season......
   22. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: November 15, 2010 at 08:37 PM (#3690312)
Can we get some Cameron Maybin love in here, please?

Thanks.
   23. BobbyS Posted: December 11, 2010 at 03:24 PM (#3708579)
Can we get Jaff Decker and Anthony Rizzo whenever you get a chance? Thanks, Dan!
   24. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: December 21, 2010 at 01:13 AM (#3715047)
Hi, Dan.

Do you think it's possible to have projections on Bartlett and Hudson?

Thanks!
   25. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: December 27, 2010 at 05:11 PM (#3718343)
And Hawpe?... Allegedly.

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