2011 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres
The way the season ended was extremely disappointing, but the Padres should still come away from the 2010 season pleased with how the team performed.
The bullpen was ridiculous for most of the season and while the drop in offense and the low park factor meant the non-Latos starters were quite a bit overrated in the rare instance the national media mentioned the Padres, the bullpen earned its plaudits. It kind of reminded me of the early-aughts Angel bullpens, which featured low-cost pickup after low-cost pickup turning the late innings into Battle of Verdun reenactments.
Now, can they repeat it? Hard to tell at this point with Adrian Gonzalez’s short-term and long-term status being unknown. Well, short-term status at least - his long-term status probably involves him making large sacks of money in a different city.
One starter that wasn’t overrated, as reference above, was Mat Latos. While I had him translated in the low-mid 3s for the 2009 season, ZiPS was a bit skeptical and pegged Latos as a good, not great starter. Well, the data came in, and ZiPS has moved into pro-Latos territory.
One thing the team needs to sort out is they’ve accumulated an impressive logjam of adequate-nothing-special corner outfielders under contract. The team isn’t likely to be a big spender anytime soon, so it’s very important for the team to figure out who they want to trust in the mid-term and who of the remaining have trade value.
Just as a reminder (since we’re early in the offseason) that players are listed with their most recent teams where practicable. So Jon Garland, foolishly turning down nearly $7 million to play in the league’s best environment for pitchers, is still listed below.
Next up: A’s
Oracle on Twitter
Batting Projections
Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
Adrian Gonzalez L 1B 29 .293 .394 .522 155 567 94 166 32 1 32 100 93 117 0 0 152
Chase Headley B 3B 27 .274 .342 .418 160 594 80 163 35 4 14 68 58 152 11 3 110
Ryan Ludwick R RF 32 .258 .329 .445 139 481 65 124 26 2 20 75 47 123 2 4 113
Will Venable L RF 28 .255 .323 .407 145 487 71 124 20 6 14 58 46 139 18 4 101
Oscar Salazar R LF 33 .268 .317 .413 113 317 41 85 18 2 8 49 24 48 2 3 101
Mike Baxter L RF 26 .259 .328 .397 147 526 74 136 29 7 10 65 51 102 11 7 101
Matt Stairs L LF 40 .209 .311 .429 78 91 12 19 5 0 5 14 13 29 1 0 103
Aaron Cunningham R LF 25 .257 .321 .394 144 505 72 130 29 5 10 65 42 128 9 8 98
James Darnell R 3B 24 .246 .325 .385 133 509 62 125 29 3 12 63 56 112 4 3 97
Scott Hairston R LF 31 .240 .306 .395 110 337 41 81 17 1 11 41 29 76 6 1 93
Miguel Tejada R SS 37 .271 .306 .383 143 579 71 157 30 1 11 65 22 59 3 2 90
Chris Denorfia R LF 30 .258 .305 .381 114 388 54 100 19 4 7 41 27 60 10 5 90
Nick Hundley R C 27 .245 .302 .401 99 339 40 83 19 2 10 47 29 86 2 3 94
Tony Gwynn L CF 28 .254 .329 .335 131 394 54 100 13 5 3 27 43 65 18 6 85
Kyle Blanks R LF 24 .222 .321 .370 103 351 42 78 15 2 11 51 43 119 2 1 92
Jerry Hairston R SS 35 .254 .310 .369 108 355 50 90 16 2 7 40 26 46 9 5 88
Jarrett Hoffpauir R 2B 28 .243 .316 .365 121 436 46 106 23 3 8 43 46 45 4 2 89
Everth Cabrera B SS 24 .248 .322 .334 123 431 62 107 19 6 2 43 42 111 31 12 83
Kyle Phillips L 1B 27 .261 .309 .355 90 318 28 83 13 1 5 33 22 60 0 0 84
David Eckstein R 2B 36 .268 .324 .328 111 411 49 110 22 0 1 33 27 34 5 1 82
Yorvit Torrealba R C 32 .254 .319 .355 84 287 28 73 14 0 5 33 25 58 3 3 87
Logan Forsythe R 2B 24 .235 .340 .321 133 507 81 119 23 3 5 47 77 142 13 4 86
Luis Durango B CF 25 .271 .345 .301 143 495 73 134 9 3 0 30 56 84 29 14 82
Cedric Hunter L CF 23 .253 .297 .352 160 651 90 165 28 9 6 67 41 60 12 6 80
Craig Stansberry R 3B 29 .238 .314 .344 112 378 49 90 18 2 6 31 40 81 6 6 83
Wily Mo Pena R 1B 29 .244 .287 .350 47 160 16 39 5 0 4 19 10 45 0 1 76
Chris Stewart R C 29 .234 .303 .326 82 261 26 61 13 1 3 23 22 38 1 1 75
Matt Antonelli R 2B 26 .216 .309 .322 90 329 46 71 13 2 6 30 40 71 6 3 76
Sean Kazmar R SS 26 .237 .289 .325 138 493 58 117 21 2 6 48 35 92 7 2 70
Sawyer Carroll L RF 25 .226 .300 .333 129 483 59 109 24 5 6 58 51 152 5 6 76
Dusty Ryan R C 26 .200 .296 .332 92 295 29 59 13 1 8 32 39 118 2 1 74
Eric Munson L 1B 33 .194 .295 .311 60 196 19 38 8 0 5 24 26 46 0 1 69
Kellen Kulbacki L LF 25 .210 .280 .324 65 238 26 50 10 1 5 25 22 58 1 2 67
Josh Barfield R 2B 28 .239 .263 .317 93 331 32 79 15 1 3 31 11 62 6 3 61
Nick Green R SS 32 .213 .263 .329 96 310 31 66 14 2 6 33 18 81 2 4 64
Defensive Projections
Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF
Adrian Gonzalez AV/86
Chase Headley VG/94 FR/113
Ryan Ludwick AV/101 PO/121 AV/57
Will Venable VG/118 FR/183 VG/98
Oscar Salazar FR/111 PO/133 PO/133 FR/118 FR/102
Mike Baxter AV/91 PO/148 AV/102 PO/124 AV/110
Matt Stairs PO/102 PO/107
Aaron Cunningham AV/179 FR/179 FR/136
James Darnell AV/181
Scott Hairston AV/70 FR/157 FR/114
Miguel Tejada AV/112 FR/83
Chris Denorfia AV/89 FR/95 AV/114
Nick Hundley AV
Tony Gwynn VG/119 EX/158 VG/119
Kyle Blanks FR/109 FR/109 FR/109
Jerry Hairston AV/90 AV/133 AV/101 AV/98 FR/128 101/
Jarrett Hoffpauir AV/145 AV/119 FR/145
Everth Cabrera AV/152 AV/179
Kyle Phillips AV AV/107 FR/126
David Eckstein AV/33 FR/123
Yorvit Torrealba AV
Logan Forsythe FR/160 VG/147
Luis Durango VG/195 VG/172
Cedric Hunter VG/135 AV/104
Craig Stansberry AV/111 VG/141 FR/134
Wily Mo Pena FR/148 PO/145 PO/145
Chris Stewart VG
Matt Antonelli AV/120
Sean Kazmar AV/114 FR/112
Sawyer Carroll FR/142 AV/158 AV/158
Dusty Ryan FR #REF!
Eric Munson FR AV/152 PR/124
Kellen Kulbacki FR/132 FR/132
Josh Barfield VG/113 AV/130 AV/98 FR/117
Nick Green FR/117 FR/120 FR/148 FR/112 FR/112
Pitching Projections - Starters
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Mat Latos R 23 3.06 11 6 23 22 126.7 100 43 12 39 124 123
Clayton Richard L 27 4.00 10 10 34 29 175.3 174 78 15 67 124 94
Jon Garland R 31 4.05 12 12 31 31 191.3 191 86 19 73 114 93
Tim Stauffer R 29 4.16 5 6 32 15 101.7 105 47 9 36 71 91
Chris Young R 32 4.18 3 3 10 10 51.7 44 24 7 25 44 90
Simon Castro R 23 4.41 7 9 28 27 136.7 137 67 14 57 102 85
Wade LeBlanc L 26 4.52 9 12 31 29 163.3 164 82 23 58 129 83
Kevin Correia R 30 4.52 8 11 29 27 153.3 156 77 17 60 115 83
Cory Luebke L 26 4.71 6 9 24 23 124.3 130 65 15 47 82 80
Will Inman R 24 4.95 4 6 17 17 92.7 96 51 13 41 60 76
Cesar Ramos L 27 5.38 5 10 34 19 110.3 129 66 11 56 66 70
Radhames Liz R 27 5.43 5 10 28 23 122.7 140 74 17 58 87 69
Jeremy Hefner R 25 5.44 7 14 30 29 152.3 174 92 20 69 98 69
Josh Geer R 28 5.79 6 14 30 27 168.0 209 108 28 46 81 65
Nathan Culp L 26 6.03 5 13 30 26 143.3 194 96 18 42 56 63
Cesar Carrillo R 27 6.23 4 12 25 25 124.3 152 86 18 65 61 61
Tyler Lumsden L 28 6.73 3 11 29 17 99.0 132 74 11 67 36 56
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Mike Adams R 32 2.70 3 1 57 0 56.7 43 17 4 20 64 140
Heath Bell R 33 2.74 6 2 63 0 65.7 52 20 4 26 76 138
Luke Gregerson R 27 3.07 7 3 71 0 73.3 57 25 6 27 83 123
Ernesto Frieri R 25 3.36 4 3 68 0 67.0 51 25 6 39 74 112
Joe Thatcher L 29 3.38 3 2 68 0 53.3 47 20 4 19 58 112
Edward Mujica R 27 3.64 3 3 61 0 76.7 71 31 10 17 71 104
Ryan Webb R 25 3.86 4 4 66 1 77.0 78 33 6 27 58 98
Scott Munter R 31 4.62 3 4 48 0 60.3 62 31 5 34 40 82
Adam Russell R 28 4.65 5 7 59 0 69.7 70 36 6 42 55 81
Luis Perdomo R 27 4.66 3 5 54 1 73.3 72 38 8 42 52 81
Mike Koplove R 34 4.74 1 2 39 0 49.3 49 26 6 28 36 79
Greg Burke R 28 4.82 3 4 59 0 65.3 67 35 10 28 50 78
Aaron Poreda L 24 5.53 2 3 51 1 57.0 49 35 5 72 51 68
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+
Adrian Gonzalez .276 .362 .477 2282 8533 1241 2358 462 19 405 1337 1126 1586 1 130
Chase Headley .266 .330 .396 2089 7761 956 2065 420 38 171 845 702 1703 134 101
Ryan Ludwick .257 .326 .442 1334 4539 604 1168 246 15 188 709 415 1069 26 107
Will Venable .253 .320 .397 1188 3950 556 1000 157 41 110 464 368 1017 127 98
David Eckstein .278 .341 .350 1555 5954 806 1654 279 20 37 464 430 488 132 86
Miguel Tejada .281 .329 .441 2560 10128 1436 2849 551 27 338 1487 605 1216 91 104
Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
Jon Garland 185 172 1 4.27 490 467 2916 3012 1385 341 1035 1617 101
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
Adrian Gonzalez 1B 74% 19% 5% 2% 0% Willie Aikens Boog Powell Jason Giambi
Chase Headley 3B 21% 34% 24% 15% 7% Mark Teahen Travis Fryman Brook Jacoby
Ryan Ludwick RF 12% 25% 21% 22% 20% Lee Stevens Dean Palmer Geoff Jenkins
Will Venable RF 7% 22% 22% 25% 24% Michael Tucker Pat Sheridan Gary Ward
Oscar Salazar LF 2% 11% 16% 26% 45% Darnell Coles Herb Perry Jeff Conine
Mike Baxter RF 4% 14% 17% 25% 40% Scott Lusader Terrence Long Adam Riggs
Matt Stairs LF 11% 17% 16% 21% 34% Jeff Manto Alan Zinter Jay Buhner
Aaron Cunningham LF 1% 8% 14% 26% 52% Ivan Calderon LaVel Freeman Adam Riggs
James Darnell 3B 4% 15% 22% 28% 32% Kory Casto Eric Duncan Tim Hulett
Scott Hairston LF 2% 10% 15% 26% 47% John Valle Brandon Berger Matt Mieske
Miguel Tejada SS 11% 15% 29% 28% 17% Frank Malzone Cookie Rojas Cal Ripken
Chris Denorfia LF 1% 5% 9% 20% 66% Ira Smith Garey Ingram Dallas Williams
Nick Hundley C 7% 25% 25% 25% 17% Jeff Grotewold Bill Hayes Humberto Cota
Tony Gwynn CF 3% 8% 23% 34% 32% Greg Tubbs Eric Owens Bruce Dostal
Kyle Blanks LF 2% 6% 9% 19% 64% Ben Shelton Jeff Hermann Jim Betzsold
Jerry Hairston SS 10% 14% 27% 28% 21% Billy Cox Dickie Thon Manny Alexander
Jarrett Hoffpauir 2B 7% 10% 16% 27% 39% Steve Lombardozzi Joe Dillon Rico Rossy
Everth Cabrera SS 8% 19% 32% 25% 15% Harry Chappas Bob Meacham Mariano Duncan
Kyle Phillips 1B 0% 1% 2% 14% 83% Jim Bowie Mike Eylward Hunter Bledsoe
David Eckstein 2B 4% 7% 13% 27% 49% Joe Stripp Cookie Rojas Jim Gantner
Yorvit Torrealba C 4% 15% 21% 30% 29% Charlie Berry Robert Machado Juan Espino
Logan Forsythe 2B 6% 10% 16% 28% 39% Dan Cholowsky Joe Lawrence Timothy Hulett
Luis Durango CF 2% 4% 14% 31% 49% Alex Cole Willy Taveras Luis Mercedes
Cedric Hunter CF 2% 3% 9% 24% 63% Clay Timpner Alexis Rios John Roberts
Craig Stansberry 3B 0% 3% 7% 17% 73% Jason Maxwell Luis Rivera Casey Benjamin
Wily Mo Pena 1B 0% 0% 1% 6% 93% Juan Richardson Jeremy Ware Alberto Concepcion
Chris Stewart C 1% 5% 10% 27% 57% Dave Van Gorder Dave Toth Doug Newstrom
Matt Antonelli 2B 3% 2% 5% 12% 78% James Guerrero Taber Lee Jason Camilli
Sean Kazmar SS 2% 3% 10% 26% 59% Joey Aragon Kevin Polcovich Wilson Delgado
Sawyer Carroll RF 0% 0% 1% 4% 95% Jim Beswick Randy Salava Mike Neill
Dusty Ryan C 2% 5% 10% 27% 57% Henry Mercedes David Ross Dan Whitmer
Eric Munson 1B 0% 0% 1% 3% 96% Jody Davis Dave May Ryan McGuire
Kellen Kulbacki LF 0% 0% 1% 2% 97%Garrick Haltiwanger Gerad Cawhorn Roger Haggerty
Josh Barfield 2B 0% 1% 1% 3% 95% Chris Lemonis Jace Brewer Luis Garcia
Nick Green SS 1% 1% 3% 6% 90% Trace Coquillette Kevin Baez Steve Scarsone
Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3
Mike Adams RP 67% 28% 4% Joe Nathan Scot Shields Robb Nen
Heath Bell RP 62% 34% 5% Rich Gossage Paul Shuey Francisco Cordero
Mat Latos SP 79% 20% 1% Roger Clemens Pedro Martinez Jake Peavy
Luke Gregerson RP 53% 40% 7% Xavier Hernandez Tom Niedenfuer Ron Davis
Ernesto Frieri RP 32% 49% 19% Eric Plunk Bobby Castillo Mike Jackson
Joe Thatcher RP 36% 47% 17% Willie Hernandez Dan Plesac Paul Assenmacher
Edward Mujica RP 18% 50% 31% Jose Melendez Julio Mateo Luis DeLeon
Ryan Webb RP 9% 53% 38% Manuel Corpas Julian Tavarez Franquelis Osoria
Clayton Richard SP 16% 59% 26% Andy Pettitte Zane Smith Chris Hammond
Jon Garland SP 13% 59% 29% Jim Slaton Andy Hawkins Kirk McCaskill
Tim Stauffer SP 4% 36% 60% Rick Lysander Sean Bergman Doug Brocail
Chris Young SP 20% 36% 44% Jim Stoops Robert Person Mario Soto
Simon Castro SP 6% 43% 51% Kelly Downs Brian Bannister Mike Maddux
Wade LeBlanc SP 3% 34% 63% Rheal Cormier Lance Painter Patrick Misch
Kevin Correia SP 2% 34% 64% Paul Wilson Chris Brock Chris Carpenter
Scott Munter RP 3% 19% 79% Jake Robbins Jerry Johnson Tim Corcoran
Adam Russell RP 1% 18% 80% Ryan Henderson Gabriel Dehoyos Dan Reichert
Luis Perdomo RP 1% 16% 83% Tony Dougherty Mike DeJean Jamie Emiliano
Cory Luebke SP 2% 28% 71% John Rheinecker Eddie Priest Tom Urbani
Mike Koplove RP 5% 16% 79% David Lee Pat Mahomes Jason Childers
Greg Burke RP 1% 12% 88% Mark Guerra Erik Bennett Jack Hardy
Will Inman SP 2% 19% 79% Shad Williams Brent Hansen Clay Christiansen
Cesar Ramos SP 0% 5% 95% Jason Cromer Heath Murray Jeff Granger
Radhames Liz SP 0% 4% 95% Mark Nussbeck Pete Janicki Lou Pote
Jeremy Hefner SP 0% 3% 97% Rich Yett Sonny Garcia Kevin Olsen
Aaron Poreda RP 0% 4% 96% Onan Masaoka Matt Garza Brian Snyder
Josh Geer SP 0% 1% 99% Mark Johnson Heath Totten Mark DiFelice
Nathan Culp SP 0% 0% 100% Randy Marshall Brian Shouse Mike Ramsey
Cesar Carrillo SP 0% 0% 100% Edward Valdez Bryan Eversgerd Hatuey Mendoza
Tyler Lumsden SP 0% 0% 100% Terrell Wade Kevin Rawitzer Rich Rundles
Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB
Adrian Gonzalez 37% 69% 64% 6% 0% 58% 68% 0%
Chase Headley 13% 10% 3% 13% 3% 2% 4% 3%
Ryan Ludwick 5% 5% 10% 1% 1% 7% 7% 0%
Will Venable 3% 3% 1% 0% 10% 0% 1% 4%
Oscar Salazar 12% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Mike Baxter 4% 4% 1% 2% 25% 0% 2% 0%
Matt Stairs 3% 12% 11% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0%
Aaron Cunningham 4% 2% 1% 1% 9% 0% 0% 0%
James Darnell 1% 3% 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 0%
Scott Hairston 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Miguel Tejada 11% 0% 3% 3% 0% 3% 2% 0%
Chris Denorfia 4% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1%
Nick Hundley 2% 1% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0%
Tony Gwynn 3% 5% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 6%
Kyle Blanks 0% 4% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0%
Jerry Hairston 5% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Jarrett Hoffpauir 1% 2% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Everth Cabrera 2% 3% 0% 0% 17% 0% 0% 51%
Kyle Phillips 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
David Eckstein 10% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Yorvit Torrealba 7% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Logan Forsythe 0% 8% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2%
Luis Durango 11% 13% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 44%
Cedric Hunter 2% 0% 1% 2% 40% 0% 0% 0%
Craig Stansberry 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Wily Mo Pena 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chris Stewart 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Matt Antonelli 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Sean Kazmar 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Sawyer Carroll 0% 0% 0% 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Dusty Ryan 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Eric Munson 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Kellen Kulbacki 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Josh Barfield 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nick Green 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1
Mike Adams 67% 94% 96% 7% 88%
Heath Bell 62% 93% 98% 2% 95%
Mat Latos 42% 92% 74% 7% 75%
Luke Gregerson 46% 88% 94% 2% 83%
Ernesto Frieri 25% 76% 93% 0% 72%
Joe Thatcher 36% 77% 90% 7% 91%
Edward Mujica 14% 62% 61% 61% 44%
Ryan Webb 6% 48% 6% 4% 93%
Clayton Richard 2% 37% 2% 1% 90%
Jon Garland 2% 34% 1% 1% 68%
Tim Stauffer 2% 29% 2% 2% 81%
Chris Young 7% 33% 34% 0% 46%
Simon Castro 1% 17% 6% 0% 66%
Wade LeBlanc 0% 11% 12% 1% 20%
Kevin Correia 0% 9% 6% 0% 56%
Scott Munter 2% 16% 4% 0% 84%
Adam Russell 1% 15% 16% 0% 87%
Luis Perdomo 0% 10% 4% 0% 57%
Cory Luebke 0% 8% 0% 1% 47%
Mike Koplove 4% 17% 10% 0% 49%
Greg Burke 1% 9% 10% 1% 26%
Will Inman 0% 6% 0% 0% 32%
Cesar Ramos 0% 1% 0% 0% 72%
Radhames Liz 0% 1% 1% 0% 32%
Jeremy Hefner 0% 0% 0% 0% 33%
Aaron Poreda 0% 3% 45% 0% 81%
Josh Geer 0% 0% 0% 15% 9%
Nathan Culp 0% 0% 0% 11% 42%
Cesar Carrillo 0% 0% 0% 0% 22%
Tyler Lumsden 0% 0% 0% 0% 62%
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 08, 2010 at 04:26 PM |
25 comment(s)
Login to Bookmark
Related News:
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. you got a STEAGLES? you're gonna need a STEAGLES. Posted: November 08, 2010 at 05:12 PM (#3685848)i'm gonna ask about him again right now, because he only OPS'd .702 in 2010, and yet, his 2011 ZiPS shot up 58 points above that performance.
what's going on here?
They would seem to be the team that could gain most from Carl Crawford, even if they overpay. With a little offense, they could be dangerous, and Crawford's game seems less likely to be hurt by Petco. It would also help them re-up Gonzalez.
Actually, he almost exactly hit his projection - a 100 OPS+ was projected and he had a 97.
What's different this year is that ZiPS is much less worried about his downside and he was underestimated last year thanks to a bug that was overpenalizing some high-BABIP players (Headley and Snider most especially).
Guys like Liz, Carrillo, and Castro project for more innings but have never thrown as many as they even project for in the majors, or haven't even pitched in the majors. Carrillo has much more injury risk than Latos, if that's the reason.
Playing time should be the part of all projections taken the least seriously - it's just that it's better than simply expressing everything as a rate.
just curious, but how might the bug you're talking about affect high BB players such as logan forsythe? it's seemed to me that minor league translations regress BBs very heavily, turning every BB that is taken away into an out, but it looks to me like this tends to be unduly pessimistic, at least as it relates to players with elite BB rates.
do you have any thoughts on that? am i completely off the mark on this?
There's not a whole lot of options for those comparison algorithms when you come up at age 22 and post a 2.92 ERA while striking out more than a guy an inning.
Yup. ZiPS does take pay attention to how many comps there are and how good the comps are. There's just not much to dislike in Latos's professional history, either - he went from short-season ball to dominating AA and AAA in a very short time.
Insanely good comps for Mike Adams too; Bell not doing too shabby.
I think that offense is worse than the Pirates. Same set of OPS+ projections but the Pirates are all at C, 2B, 3B and CF while the Padres have 9 corner OFs with a 100 OPS+.
The Kyle Blanks projection does not suggest "Adrian Gonzalez replacement."
I like the bullpen, tho.
Anyone know if this has any legs?
Thanks.
Do you think it's possible to have projections on Bartlett and Hudson?
Thanks!
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main