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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, January 04, 2011

2011 ZiPS Projections - San Francisco Giants

I’m going to keep my comment very short here as I have a nasty cold/flu and the insane amounts of cough medicine and decongestant are making me really foggy.

ZiPS is more bullish on the Giants offense than it has been in years - there are only a few minor league hitters with high upside, but there are a lot that should provide excellent depth, like Neal and Bond.  The starting pitching depth is horrid, however, and the Giants would be smart to bring a couple of minor league free agents in - “all our awesome starting pitchers stay healthy” is always a terrible plan.  Todd Wellemeyer, gone since mid-summer, shouldn’t rank that high on your starting options.

No doubt I’ll get grief again for the Runzler projection, but again, it’s not my fault that pitchers with comical walk rates have very large downside risk.  Runzler’s had success in the majors so far, but the reality is that pitchers with control that Daniel Cabrera can sadly shake his head at are bad bets.

Oh yeah, ZiPS loves Brandon Belt and at least in the short term has him as the best 1B prospect in baseball.

Next up:  Mariners

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Buster Posey      R    C   24   .297 .366 .479 156 582  92 173  35   4  21  92  60  94   3   2  125
Pablo Sandoval    B    3B  24   .295 .346 .474 156 586  82 173  40   4  19  86  46  81   4   3  118
Aubrey Huff       L    1B  34   .273 .349 .465 142 523  79 143  34   3  20  83  59  85   4   2  117
Brandon Belt      L    1B  23   .266 .357 .440 136 516  79 137  32   8  14  80  73 106  18   9  113
Cody Ross         R    CF  30   .269 .318 .450 145 498  65 134  30   3  18  68  31 103   6   2  104
Pat Burrell       R    LF  34   .239 .342 .438 123 402  50  96  21   1  19  63  64 110   0   1  108
Andres Torres     B    CF  33   .252 .319 .428 118 404  62 102  25   8  10  41  38 103  17   5   99
Nate Schierholtz  L    RF  27   .273 .319 .431 140 355  53  97  22   5   8  40  21  59   7   4   99
Miguel Tejada     R    SS  37   .287 .319 .411 143 581  79 167  34   1  12  72  20  56   3   2   95
Jose Guillen      R    RF  35   .260 .312 .424 123 453  50 118  22   2  16  68  25  84   1   0   96
Mark DeRosa       R    LF  36   .252 .324 .401  88 314  44  79  15   1  10  47  30  66   2   1   94
Thomas Neal       R    LF  23   .259 .325 .397 154 595  81 154  36   2  14  78  48 129   6   5   93
Francisco Peguero R    CF  23   .292 .315 .400 126 527  68 154  18  12   5  64  14  98  29  20   91
Freddy Sanchez    R    2B  33   .278 .320 .386 123 485  63 135  27   2   7  48  28  67   2   2   89
Travis Ishikawa   L    1B  27   .249 .312 .407 131 329  45  82  18   2  10  49  28  84   3   2   92
Ryan Rohlinger    R    SS  27   .255 .317 .386 126 451  61 115  28   2   9  59  34  93   4   2   88
Aaron Rowand      R    CF  33   .252 .312 .391 127 437  54 110  23   1  12  50  27  97   4   3   88
Mike Fontenot     L    2B  31   .257 .319 .386 120 303  35  78  18   3   5  35  26  58   2   3   89
Edgar Renteria    R    SS  34   .265 .318 .362 102 370  45  98  17   2   5  37  30  55   5   1   82
Brock Bond        B    2B  25   .267 .350 .341 128 472  77 126  22   5   1  42  53  86  10   8   87
Eugenio Velez     B    CF  29   .260 .304 .382 126 434  61 113  21   7   6  43  27  78  28  14   83
Conor Gillaspie   L    3B  23   .265 .314 .379 154 585  69 155  30   8   7  75  42  88   0   5   86
Brett Pill        R    1B  26   .256 .297 .380 152 574  70 147  35   0  12  82  29  94   5   2   80
Tyler Graham      R    CF  27   .258 .304 .323 106 365  56  94  14   2   2  32  20  77  30  12   69
Johnny Monell     L    C   25   .228 .288 .366 106 382  43  87  20   3   9  46  31 101   5   3   75
Emmanuel Burriss  B    SS  26   .264 .314 .314 104 363  49  96  11   2   1  28  22  46  19   9   70
Charlie Culberson R    2B  22   .243 .289 .345 156 617  82 150  26   5   9  57  33 139  18   8   70
Joe Borchard      B    RF  32   .221 .283 .368  94 321  40  71  17   3   8  35  25  93   2   2   73
Eli Whiteside     R    C   31   .230 .277 .354  64 178  21  41   8   1   4  19   9  47   1   1   68
Darren Ford       R    CF  25   .224 .288 .325 131 526  76 118  19   8   6  41  44 149  36  15   65
Brandon Crawford  L    SS  24   .226 .288 .341 119 452  56 102  20   4   8  31  35 139   6   5   68
Juan Perez        R    CF  24   .236 .270 .358 149 601  71 142  32   7   9  55  26 154  14  12   67
Ehire Adrianza    B    SS  21   .232 .295 .311 156 556  75 129  23   6   3  47  46 122  22  14   63

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Buster Posey             VG   AV/99
Pablo Sandoval           FR  AV/117           AV/85
Aubrey Huff                   AV/69          FR/107           FR/95           FR/97
Brandon Belt                 AV/126                          FR/114          FR/108
Cody Ross                                                     AV/80   AV/55   AV/80
Pat Burrell                                                   FR/77
Andres Torres                                                VG/112   VG/41   VG/81
Nate Schierholtz                                                              AV/65
Miguel Tejada                                FR/112   FR/83
Jose Guillen                                                 FR/103          PO/177
Mark DeRosa                  AV/123  FR/139   FR/86           AV/96           AV/89
Thomas Neal                  AV/164                          AV/147          AV/147
Francisco Peguero                                                    VG/193  VG/150
Freddy Sanchez                        AV/68
Travis Ishikawa               VG/84
Ryan Rohlinger                       AV/100   VG/94  FR/100
Aaron Rowand                                                          AV/81
Mike Fontenot                         AV/92  FR/108  PO/116
Edgar Renteria                                        AV/95
Brock Bond                           AV/150  FR/117          AV/110
Eugenio Velez                        FR/185                  VG/186  AV/192  AV/186
Conor Gillaspie                              AV/145
Brett Pill                    AV/84          PO/114
Tyler Graham                                                 AV/114   FR/90  AV/114
Johnny Monell            AV  FR/124
Emmanuel Burriss                     VG/184          FR/125
Charlie Culberson                    AV/120  VG/140  FR/162
Joe Borchard                                                 AV/114          FR/156
Eli Whiteside            AV
Darren Ford                                                  VG/144  AV/135
Brandon Crawford                                      AV/99
Juan Perez                           FR/142                  AV/104  AV/137
Ehire Adrianza                                       VG/140

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Tim Lincecum      R     27    2.78    17    6   32   32  213.3  172   66   14   71  246  150
Matt Cain         R     26    3.25    15    8   33   33  219.0  189   79   20   70  186  129
Jonathan Sanchez  L     28    3.66    12    8   32   30  172.3  141   70   18   87  183  114
Madison Bumgarner L     21    3.93    10    8   30   29  165.0  167   72   16   51  107  106
Barry Zito        L     33    4.19    11   11   30   30  176.0  168   82   18   78  133  100
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -   96
Todd Wellemeyer   R     32    4.93     6    8   22   19  107.7  111   59   16   50   75   85
Henry Sosa        R     25    5.38     4    6   24   13   82.0   89   49   12   44   50   78
Clayton Tanner    L     23    5.50     6   11   26   25  131.0  148   80   17   70   66   76
Shane Loux        R     31    5.50     6    9   24   17  107.3  130   62   13   32   45   76
Matt Kinney       R     34    5.58     4    7   16   15   80.7   94   50   15   26   54   75
Michael Main      R     22    6.52     3    7   17   16   78.7   94   57   15   46   42   64

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Sergio Romo       R     28    2.82     5    2   59    0   54.3   44   17    5   16   60  148
Brian Wilson      R     29    2.86     5    2   66    0   69.3   56   22    5   26   83  146
Jeremy Affeldt    L     31    3.54     3    2   64    0   61.0   55   24    5   26   57  118
Ramon Ramirez     R     29    3.55     4    2   68    0   66.0   57   26    6   29   56  118
Santiago Casilla  R     30    3.76     3    2   50    0   52.7   49   22    5   24   47  111
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  108
Javier Lopez      L     33    3.88     2    2   63    0   51.0   50   22    4   21   32  108
Jose Casilla      R     22    4.04     2    2   40    0   42.3   42   19    3   20   26  103
Dan Runzler       L     26    4.10     2    2   50    0   48.3   41   22    4   34   49  102
Guillermo Mota    R     37    4.14     3    3   51    0   50.0   47   23    5   21   36  101
Osiris Matos      R     26    4.21     3    3   46    0   57.7   57   27    5   25   43   99
Chris Ray         R     29    4.33     2    2   47    0   43.7   43   21    4   20   33   97
Geno Espineli     L     27    4.33     4    4   53    0   62.3   69   30    5   19   33   96
Alex Hinshaw      L     28    4.33     2    2   54    0   54.0   47   26    5   40   57   96
Waldis Joaquin    R     24    4.56     3    3   39    3   53.3   52   27    5   34   42   92
Tony Pena Jr.     R     30    4.78     1    2   27    0   37.7   40   20    4   18   23   87
Brandon Medders   R     31    4.82     2    2   44    0   52.3   54   28    7   26   39   87
Steve Edlefsen    R     26    4.93     4    6   48    0   65.7   65   36    7   46   48   85
Matt Yourkin      L     29    5.16     4    7   39   11   90.7  103   52   11   40   61   81
Rafael Cova       R     29    5.19     1    2   26    0   26.0   23   15    3   23   25   80
Craig Whitaker    R     26    6.11     1    2   44    1   56.0   57   38    7   59   40   68

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Edgar Renteria      .283  .339  .392  2459  9319  1333  2638   484    36   153  1030   800  1307   307    92
Aubrey Huff         .276  .340  .464  2168  8082  1105  2231   482    40   318  1218   749  1162    49   112
Pablo Sandoval      .284  .336  .453  2034  7623  1000  2166   476    50   238  1053   600   968    46   110
Pat Burrell         .249  .354  .461  1989  6791   916  1693   365    19   346  1168  1101  1852     7   112
Buster Posey        .285  .354  .450  1978  7378  1083  2102   416    42   240  1089   744  1084    41   115
Jose Guillen        .268  .319  .434  1944  6976   861  1867   357    29   249  1042   375  1291    34    97
Aaron Rowand        .268  .325  .424  1700  5606   762  1501   323    20   171   685   335  1140    77    95
Cody Ross           .261  .313  .438  1493  4988   627  1303   293    27   179   686   320  1014    56    98
Freddy Sanchez      .289  .326  .398  1283  4904   628  1417   289    23    67   510   256   602    20    92
Mark DeRosa         .268  .337  .414  1238  3904   579  1047   208    13   112   532   364   750    24    95
Nate Schierholtz    .266  .312  .411  1091  2676   373   713   166    33    52   276   157   433    38    92
Andres Torres       .249  .311  .419   884  2934   434   730   177    57    69   293   252   683   106    94

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Matt Cain          205  148    0    3.50  511  509     3313 2902 1287  334 1147 2809    121
Barry Zito         199  178    0    4.05  515  512     3111 2858 1399  331 1337 2326    107
Tim Lincecum       208  107    0    3.27  429  427     2858 2347 1037  197  986 3244    127
Jonathan Sanchez   134  113    0    3.98  420  351     2037 1722  901  224 1066 2135    106

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Buster Posey      C     71%  23%   5%   1%   0%          Joe Torre       Bill Freehan      Jason Kendall
Pablo Sandoval    3B    31%  32%  19%  12%   6%      Carlos Baerga     Ryan Zimmerman          Ron Santo
Aubrey Huff       1B    13%  29%  23%  25%  10%    Chris Chambliss         Todd Zeile     George McQuinn
Brandon Belt      1B    11%  26%  22%  27%  15%     Elbie Fletcher      Shin-Soo Choo          Sid Bream
Cody Ross         CF    22%  25%  30%  18%   5%        Tony Barron           Dan Ford        Russ Morman
Pat Burrell       LF     9%  22%  21%  24%  24%      Graham Koonce         Jay Buhner      Paul Sorrento
Andres Torres     CF    21%  23%  29%  18%   9%      Mitch Webster      Mookie Wilson        Devon White
Nate Schierholtz  RF     4%  10%  15%  25%  46%       Bubba Crosby       Steve Carter       Marty Keough
Miguel Tejada     SS    11%  15%  29%  28%  17%      Frank Malzone       Cookie Rojas         Cal Ripken
Jose Guillen      RF     2%   9%  13%  24%  51%        Russ Morman       Hubie Brooks        Eric Karros
Mark DeRosa       LF     2%   7%  10%  19%  63%     Eddie Williams        Russ Morman        Ernie Young
Thomas Neal       LF     2%   6%  11%  20%  61%         Jason Hart        John Roskos       Justin Huber
Francisco Peguero CF     4%   7%  18%  28%  43%         Adam Jones       Carlos Gomez      Jerome Walton
Freddy Sanchez    2B     7%   9%  15%  26%  43%       Manny Trillo  Mark Grudzielanek        Jerry Adair
Travis Ishikawa   1B     0%   3%   7%  26%  63%         Doug Deeds     Chris Wakeland       Luis Jimenez
Ryan Rohlinger    SS     7%  16%  30%  29%  19%        Luis Rivera       Jason Alfaro       Adam Heether
Aaron Rowand      CF     2%   7%  21%  34%  36%    Jeffrey Leonard        Pedro Swann     Preston Wilson
Mike Fontenot     2B     5%   6%  11%  24%  54%          Dave Berg        Steve Lyons          Tom Foley
Edgar Renteria    SS     5%  10%  25%  32%  27%    Brian Dallimore    Ricky Gutierrez      Luis Figueroa
Brock Bond        2B     3%   7%  13%  27%  50%         Ron Oester      Bret Barberie         Manuel Lee
Eugenio Velez     CF     3%   6%  14%  26%  52%        Chris Duffy        Rajai Davis         Cecil Espy
Conor Gillaspie   3B     2%   3%   7%  18%  70%       Tom O’Malley      Robinson Cano     Aarom Baldiris
Brett Pill        1B     0%   0%   1%  12%  87%       Stephen Head         Chan Perry       Sean McGowan
Tyler Graham      CF     1%   1%   5%  18%  75%      Willy Taveras     Joey Gathright     Charles Thomas
Johnny Monell     C      2%   5%  10%  26%  58%        Andy Skeels    Justin Knoedler     Elvis Corporan
Emmanuel Burriss  SS     0%   2%   9%  24%  65%     Carlos Mendoza        Carlos Leon      Edgar Caceres
Charlie Culberson 2B     3%   2%   3%   9%  83%     Matt Witkowski      Luis Montanez      Danny Klassen
Joe Borchard      RF     0%   1%   1%   4%  94%        Dann Howitt         Jeff Guiel    Matthew Cepicky
Eli Whiteside     C      1%   3%   4%  14%  78%    Paul Chiaffredo      Frank Charles        Paul Hoover
Darren Ford       CF     0%   1%   2%   9%  88%       Tony Russell        Wayne Lydon   Donzell McDonald
Brandon Crawford  SS     2%   2%   5%  13%  78%       Brian Bixler    Tony Perezchica      Mario Ramirez
Juan Perez        CF     1%   1%   2%   6%  92%        Joe Mikulik  Francisco Batista         Chris Rahl

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Tim Lincecum      SP     93%    2%    5%    Ewell Blackwell     Camilo Pascual      Roger Clemens
Sergio Romo       RP     80%   19%    2%         Eric Gagne     Rollie Fingers       Bruce Sutter
Brian Wilson      RP     79%   19%    2%         Duane Ward        Dick Radatz       Bruce Sutter
Matt Cain         SP     84%   11%    5%        Charlie Lea       Ben McDonald   Dustin Hermanson
Jeremy Affeldt    RP     41%   47%   13%    George Sherrill Jason Christiansen         Will Ohman
Ramon Ramirez     RP     43%   48%    9%     Woody Williams    Derrick Turnbow      Jose Paniagua
Jonathan Sanchez  SP     69%   29%    2%      Randy Johnson       Sam McDowell      Mark Langston
Santiago Casilla  RP     33%   48%   19%         Todd Jones      Ryan Dempster        Cory Bailey
Javier Lopez      RP     34%   43%   23%        Juan Agosto  Scott Schoeneweis      Arnold Earley
Madison Bumgarner SP     42%   52%    7%       Dave Fleming        Mark Mulder       Greg Hibbard
Jose Casilla      RP     20%   41%   39%         Joe Hudson          Sam Nahem    Robert Tenenini
Dan Runzler       RP     16%   47%   37%      Brian Fuentes    Armando Almanza       Dennys Reyes
Guillermo Mota    RP     21%   46%   33%   Giovanni Carrara       Joe Borowski       Mike Fetters
Barry Zito        SP     25%   61%   15%         Doug Davis     Wilson Alvarez      Brian Bohanon
Osiris Matos      RP     15%   50%   35%       Tim Drummond      Steve Schmoll    Mark Rutherford
Chris Ray         RP     17%   42%   41%      Jim Dougherty     Miguel Saladin       Chad Paronto
Geno Espineli     RP     15%   42%   43%         Ryan Meaux      Will McEnaney       Pat Clements
Alex Hinshaw      RP     15%   43%   42%      Ricky Pickett      Brian Fuentes    Armando Almanza
Waldis Joaquin    RP      7%   40%   53%     Anthony Chavez       Brian Bowles       Tom Thurberg
Tony Pena Jr.     RP      7%   31%   62%      Mike Bumstead       Jake Robbins      Andy Mitchell
Brandon Medders   RP      5%   29%   66%        Pat Mahomes        Marcus Gwyn       Dave Stevens
Todd Wellemeyer   SP      6%   34%   60%       Chan Ho Park         Cal Eldred       Jackson Todd
Steve Edlefsen    RP      3%   27%   69% Heathcliff Slocumb     Marc Pisciotta    Jason Gilfillan
Horacio Ramirez   SP      8%   29%   63%    Stubby Overmire        Tony Fossas        Chris Haney
Matt Yourkin      RP      0%   17%   82%       Jeff Granger       Matt Perisho      Trever Miller
Rafael Cova       RP      8%   22%   70%       Bart Miadich       Calvin Jones      Johnny Ruffin
Henry Sosa        SP      1%   20%   79%     Kelvin Jimenez      Kelly Lifgren      Tony Guerrero
Clayton Tanner    SP      0%   15%   85%       Shawn Bryant       Kris Detmers      Mike Matthews
Shane Loux        SP      2%   15%   83%           Joe Mays        Pat Ahearne     Brian Tollberg
Matt Kinney       SP      3%   14%   82%          Jose Lima      Mike Smithson       Rick Helling
Craig Whitaker    RP      0%    4%   96%          Bill Bene   Johnny Humphries       Jake Robbins
Michael Main      SP      0%    2%   98%        Bryan Corey       Jared Jensen        Brian Adams


Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Buster Posey            45%      38%      30%      16%       5%      13%      20%       0%
Pablo Sandoval          42%      13%      28%      46%       7%      12%      12%       0%
Aubrey Huff             14%      17%      20%       8%       4%       8%      10%       0%
Brandon Belt             8%      25%      10%       6%      27%       1%       7%      10%
Cody Ross               10%       2%      11%       3%       2%       3%       2%       1%
Pat Burrell              1%      12%       9%       0%       0%       4%       4%       0%
Andres Torres            4%       3%       7%       0%      34%       1%       2%       3%
Nate Schierholtz        15%       2%       7%       0%       8%       0%       2%       0%
Miguel Tejada           11%       0%       3%       3%       0%       3%       2%       0%
Jose Guillen             5%       1%       4%       0%       0%       2%       1%       0%
Mark DeRosa              4%       4%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Thomas Neal              3%       3%       1%      16%       1%       1%       1%       0%
Francisco Peguero       37%       1%       2%       0%      63%       0%       0%      45%
Freddy Sanchez          19%       2%       1%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Travis Ishikawa          3%       2%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ryan Rohlinger           3%       2%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Aaron Rowand             3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Mike Fontenot            7%       3%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Edgar Renteria           9%       3%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Brock Bond              10%      19%       0%       0%       6%       0%       0%       0%
Eugenio Velez            6%       1%       0%       0%      18%       0%       0%      35%
Conor Gillaspie          7%       1%       2%       4%      28%       1%       1%       0%
Brett Pill               2%       0%       0%       9%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Tyler Graham             5%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%      48%
Johnny Monell            0%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Emmanuel Burriss         8%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%      10%
Charlie Culberson        1%       0%       3%       2%       8%       3%       0%       9%
Joe Borchard             0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Eli Whiteside            3%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Darren Ford              0%       0%       0%       0%      25%       0%       0%      73%
Brandon Crawford         0%       0%       2%       0%       4%       1%       1%       0%
Juan Perez               0%       0%       1%       5%      25%       1%       0%       1%
Ehire Adrianza           0%       0%       0%       1%      16%       0%       0%      17%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Tim Lincecum              84%        95%        96%         2%        97%
Sergio Romo               73%        92%        93%        20%        81%
Brian Wilson              74%        93%        98%         1%        93%
Matt Cain                 48%        93%        31%         2%        79%
Jeremy Affeldt            33%        83%        64%         1%        84%
Ramon Ramirez             35%        83%        34%         1%        71%
Jonathan Sanchez          30%        86%        89%         0%        66%
Santiago Casilla          25%        74%        44%         1%        83%
Javier Lopez              27%        64%         2%         3%        87%
Madison Bumgarner         12%        72%         1%         6%        75%
Jose Casilla              20%        52%         3%         0%        91%
Dan Runzler               16%        55%        79%         0%        73%
Guillermo Mota            16%        59%         9%         2%        77%
Barry Zito                 4%        54%         7%         0%        71%
Osiris Matos              11%        50%        10%         1%        70%
Chris Ray                 12%        50%        11%         1%        71%
Geno Espineli             12%        50%         0%        16%        81%
Alex Hinshaw              11%        50%        86%         0%        80%
Waldis Joaquin             7%        40%        15%         0%        81%
Tony Pena Jr.              7%        30%         3%         1%        67%
Brandon Medders            3%        27%        10%         0%        52%
Todd Wellemeyer            2%        16%         3%         0%        25%
Steve Edlefsen             2%        20%         4%         0%        64%
Horacio Ramirez            6%        30%         0%        24%        55%
Matt Yourkin               0%        11%         1%         0%        48%
Rafael Cova                8%        30%        58%         0%        64%
Henry Sosa                 0%         6%         0%         0%        24%
Clayton Tanner             0%         2%         0%         0%        37%
Shane Loux                 0%         6%         1%        15%        45%
Matt Kinney                1%         6%         3%         8%        10%
Craig Whitaker             0%         3%         6%         0%        50%
Michael Main               0%         0%         0%         0%         8%


All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 04, 2011 at 03:03 PM | 65 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Frisco Cali Posted: January 04, 2011 at 04:45 PM (#3723027)
Not sure what is so wrong with the Runzler projection. Good K rate, low HRs. And he walked 20 in 32 innings last year.
   2. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 04, 2011 at 04:53 PM (#3723034)
Dan Runzler has a posse.
   3. xanthan Posted: January 04, 2011 at 04:54 PM (#3723037)
Not sure what is so wrong with the Runzler projection. Good K rate, low HRs. And he walked 20 in 32 innings last year.


I can't remember what happened in last year's ZiPS thread but Runzler had a crazy good 2009 in the minor leagues (0.78 ERA, 12.7 K/9, 3.7 BB/9) and I think people were a little too high on him. He's still a guy with a very live arm, but his problems throwing strikes are still there.

Everything looks pretty good, Dan. Thanks for posting these. I really like the Belt projection and the rotation looks solid -- injuries withstanding. A few reclamation SP arms would be nice. Maybe someone like Doug Davis or Justin Duchscherer would fit the bill.
   4. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 04, 2011 at 04:56 PM (#3723041)
Sandoval's top comp is Baerga?

That's awesome.
   5. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 04, 2011 at 04:57 PM (#3723043)
I'll admit to being mildly surprised that ZiPS thinks Bond will keep that much of his OBP.
   6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 04, 2011 at 04:59 PM (#3723045)
I hated him as a Royal, but it would be really cool to see Tony Pena Jr. make it as a pitcher.
   7. Tom (and his broom) Posted: January 04, 2011 at 05:31 PM (#3723067)
I love appraising defense in terms of DMB ratings....but that is the DMB manager in me...

a couple of nitpicks...the projection for Torres is absurdly low...He might hit .252....if he had his appendix out every other month...he hit a solid .270 in '09 and was hitting 284/367/502 when his appendix started bothering him...(most notably by eliminating his ability to check his swing). I realize ZIPS still uses his pre '09 MLB numbers but whatever you think of his story those numbers say nothing about the hitter he is now.

And the "all our awesome starting pitchers stay healthy" plan does work when you have a collection of pitchers who have never been injured and an organization that has spent several million dollars researching how pitchers get injured and how to prevent it. Look at the track record of the Giants regarding pitcher injuries, it is the hidden strength of their organization.
   8. morineko Posted: January 04, 2011 at 05:49 PM (#3723081)
What Giants pitchers were on the DL last year for arm-related issues? Wellemeyer and Runzler were on the DL, sure, but both of them got hurt batting or running the basepaths.
   9. Tom (and his broom) Posted: January 04, 2011 at 05:54 PM (#3723090)
I think Wellenmeyer's injury was actually what you call a fractured ERA.
   10. morineko Posted: January 04, 2011 at 06:27 PM (#3723126)
Ha! The original injury was legitimate--I was watching the game and he was shockingly dealin' out there against the Reds, but hurt his leg trying to make it to first base. The endless rehab assignment in Fresno, though, that was dodgy.

Runzler dislocated his kneecap on his first MLB plate appearance and Madison Bumgarner had to finish for him. He struck out. That was...I shouldn't say amusing, but of all the things you'd expect to happen when a guy takes a swing, a dislocated kneecap isn't one of them.
   11. Walt Davis Posted: January 04, 2011 at 06:33 PM (#3723132)
Wow. Cuz I was curious, I looked up last year's ZiPS which had Huff projected at a 100 OPS+; now he's 117. That must be close to a record ZiPS improvement for a 34-year-old.
   12. Danny Posted: January 04, 2011 at 06:42 PM (#3723140)
I'm surprised to see Graham Koonce as Burrell's top comp, given that he only had one cup of coffee (8 AB at age 28) and didn't play past 32 (Burrell will be 34 next year).
   13. tshipman Posted: January 04, 2011 at 07:00 PM (#3723161)
I can't say that I understand Dan's statement that the Giants have poor starting pitching depth. How many staffs have 5 starters projected to have ERA+'s at 100 or greater?

I agree that the depth after that point (and Wellemeyer) isn't great, but if you're a team like the Twins, who have their top 3 starters projected at 109, 106 and 98, then 5 guys from 86 to 96, do you really have better depth?

You have more guys who won't completely crap the bed, but the Giants have 5 guys who are projected above average, none with any injury history. That seems like good depth to me. It's not that hard to find below average starters int he middle of the season.
   14. RTSquared is not on the Rangers' DL...yet... Posted: January 04, 2011 at 07:03 PM (#3723163)
Am I the only one that finds it humorous that ex-Ranger draft pick Barry Zito, who was once courted heavily by said Rangers, has all of his ZiPS comps be ex-Rangers?
   15. The Artist Posted: January 04, 2011 at 07:07 PM (#3723168)
I would dance naked down the streets of SF if Sandoval met that projection.
   16. crazycrabbers Posted: January 04, 2011 at 07:14 PM (#3723177)
The Sandoval projection is exciting and even if the during the regular season he was half way between last season and this it would be a big improvement.

I think that the Brandon Belt projection is a little rosy but he has played well at every stop thus far. I still think that it is high but I will hope for the best.

As for the starting pitching depth the system is top heavy with some interesting arms lower in the system. There is the possibility with the relief depth that one or two of those guys will try to be stretched out as long relief 6th starter types. That is the story for Runzler and it is the last area along with backup shortstop for the Giants to clear up for this season.
   17. Tom (and his broom) Posted: January 04, 2011 at 07:16 PM (#3723179)
Artist...so would I...but I think if he is healthy he can do much better...but he needs to get thin and healthy...and he needs to send mom back to Venezuela or someplace far from SF...Pablo is apparently the lightest member of his family by over 100 lb's...Mom's home cooking will destroy his career given half a chance...

I am worried that the last report from Panda Camp II was that he had lost 30 lb's of fat in Dec but gained 20 lb's of muscle....that kind of BS was the story of panda camp I...and we saw how that turned out.
   18. tshipman Posted: January 04, 2011 at 07:28 PM (#3723190)
I don't care about Sandoval's weight. He was fat in 2009. He hit then. I'm guessing he's been fat most of his life. I don't see any correlation between him being fat and him not hitting.

All I care about is whether or not he hits. If he hits .300 with power he can eat a cheeseburger at first base for all I care.
   19. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili(Teddy F. Ballgame) Posted: January 04, 2011 at 07:36 PM (#3723203)
So Tim Lincecum's career projection basically calls him Sandy Koufax. I like it.
   20. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 04, 2011 at 07:50 PM (#3723221)
I can't say that I understand Dan's statement that the Giants have poor starting pitching depth.

Curiously, Dan's first paragraph almost exactly mirrors the first two thoughts I had after looking over the numbers (offense looks a little better, decent minor league hitting depth, no sp depth beyond the first five). As Dan noted, they don't even have Wellemeyer anymore - their 6th starter (whoever it is) has a projected ERA+ in the mid 70s. This is the time to grab a guy to wait around in Fresno for when somebody gets hurt, given that somebody usually does (the Giants skill in this regard not notwithstanding), not midseason.
   21. flournoy Posted: January 04, 2011 at 07:57 PM (#3723233)
Am I the only one that finds it humorous that ex-Ranger draft pick Barry Zito, who was once courted heavily by said Rangers, has all of his ZiPS comps be ex-Rangers?


Probably.
   22. A triple short of the cycle Posted: January 04, 2011 at 08:09 PM (#3723255)
I would dance naked down the streets of SF if Sandoval met that projection.

Someone (not it!) will hold you to that...

I think the Giants should be happy if they get these projected performances from Posey, Sandoval, and Huff.
   23. Steve Phillips' Hot Cougar (DrStankus) Posted: January 04, 2011 at 08:25 PM (#3723280)
I would dance naked down the streets of SF if Sandoval met that projection.


The streets of SF will be filled with naked dancers if Sandoval meets that projection.

Not that it will be that odd for San Francisco.

I mean, streets full of naked dancers is less freaky than Folsom Street Fair, and that happens every year.
   24. Steve Phillips' Hot Cougar (DrStankus) Posted: January 04, 2011 at 08:28 PM (#3723288)
I don't care about Sandoval's weight. He was fat in 2009. He hit then. I'm guessing he's been fat most of his life. I don't see any correlation between him being fat and him not hitting.


At some point, fat is too fat. If his breasts get too big, it will really affect his swing.

Also, that extra weight will wear him down as he ages. And not really that old, either. As he gets into his mid-20's he won't be able to do what he did with that weight that he could do in his younger days.
   25. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 04, 2011 at 08:30 PM (#3723293)
I was moderately amused by the Ewell Blackwell comp - ZiPS obviously doesn't know that Blackwell and Lincecum both had painful-looking motions, but for those that don't know much about Blackwell, he had this across the body sidearm that was nearly a flail.
   26. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 04, 2011 at 08:32 PM (#3723296)
If his breasts get too big, it will really affect his swing.


Should help his HBP numbers, though.
   27. tropicofcancer Posted: January 04, 2011 at 08:37 PM (#3723305)
Dan, can you at least attempt to explain why Torres's projection is regressed so substantially from his performance over the last 2 years? Also, why was he not given an Ex rating in CF? Only an Andruwsian type talent could possibly have more range.
   28. bfan Posted: January 04, 2011 at 08:39 PM (#3723311)
If his breasts get too big, it will really affect his swing.


Should help his HBP numbers, though.


And his love life.
   29. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 04, 2011 at 08:55 PM (#3723324)
Dan, can you at least attempt to explain why Torres's projection is regressed so substantially from his performance over the last 2 years? Also, why was he not given an Ex rating in CF? Only an Andruwsian type talent could possibly have more range.

He only has 1 season of MLB defensive numbers in center - that's the equivalent of about 2 months of offensive stats. He's certainly on the cusp of EX.
   30. zenbitz Posted: January 04, 2011 at 09:02 PM (#3723336)
Some thoughts from Giants fan.

1) Torres cannot be projected. Probably not by a human accurately not to mention software. He's bizarre.

2) Depth clearly means 6th+ starter. Look at the Rockies projections for example. Even the Dodgers have 3 guys after their top 5 with 90-99 projected ERA+. Obviously the team is going to struggle if Lincecum or Cain -- or even Sanchez goes down. No matter who the 6th starter is... but it should be reasonable to add someone to the 40-man who can back up Bumgarner/Zito and not be wretched.

3) Zips is smart. Sandoval's projection is just 10 points of BA off of his career totals. I don't know what else to do with him, projection wise.
   31. danielj Posted: January 04, 2011 at 09:15 PM (#3723348)
I think ZIPs is a tad optimistic on Tejada.
   32. zenbitz Posted: January 04, 2011 at 09:20 PM (#3723353)
I think ZIPs is a tad optimistic on Tejada.


Not as optimistic as it was on Uribe!
   33. tshipman Posted: January 04, 2011 at 09:27 PM (#3723356)
2) Depth clearly means 6th+ starter. Look at the Rockies projections for example. Even the Dodgers have 3 guys after their top 5 with 90-99 projected ERA+. Obviously the team is going to struggle if Lincecum or Cain -- or even Sanchez goes down. No matter who the 6th starter is... but it should be reasonable to add someone to the 40-man who can back up Bumgarner/Zito and not be wretched.


I don't know if Sabean is done with his offseason or not, but it's not like guys who are capable of putting up a 5.00 ERA are all that hard to find. How much are the Twins going to demand in trade for Nick Blackburn? Or the Blue Jays for Shawn Hill? What do the Braves want for Derek Lowe? Anything more than freight?

There's almost always guys available. I want Sabean to pick one of those guys up, but it's not the end of the world if he didn't.
   34. zenbitz Posted: January 04, 2011 at 09:31 PM (#3723360)
I don't know Diamond Mind, what are the numbers after the slashes for defense?
   35. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 04, 2011 at 09:55 PM (#3723377)
Error rate. 100 is average - 50 is half as error prone, etc..

As for range, there's five categories: EX, VG, AV, FR, PO. VG and FR are (if memory serves) +/-7 runs from average - EX/PO are +/- 13 runs or so.

***

End of the world, tshipman? No - but what kind of plan is saying "aw, #### it"? Instead of paying additional transaction costs later (because the Twins want to keep Blackburn, or the Braves don't have a decent replacement for Lowe and they're in a pennant race, or Hill (a FA you could probably sign quite reasonably now) signed with KC and worked his way to a 3rd starter status and will cost some prospects ... you could sign someone now - not only to cover for major injury, but if someone goes on the 15-day DL and you need a two-week fill-in. Or two.
You know how in discussion of the replacement level, one of the themes that comes up is how that level isn't constant within the season - this is when you pick up those guys, when they're actually freely available.
   36. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: January 04, 2011 at 10:15 PM (#3723394)
Of all the things I would notice here... Edgar Renteria has Brian Dallimore (former Astro and Giant farmhand with 56 PA in the majors) as his top comp. How does that happen? Wouldn't sample size keep that from happening?

Also, I'm in the "get another starter" camp. I don't care how durable (or good) the top 5 starters are; HBP, baserunning injury, appendicitis, bereavement, painful dental surgery... there are any number of reasons for a guy to miss time, and relying on wishcasting Runzler or Wellemeyer II, Shelling Boogaloo is not good planning.

At least Ryan Rohlinger doesn't appear to be a big dropoff from Tejada.

Thomas Neal looked like a future star last year at San Jose. I'm hoping he rebounds at Fresno and the prospect luster returns. Having a quality in-house replacement for Huff and Burrell (besides Belt) would be mighty nice. Peguero's projection is a nice surprise, insofar as he looks like an actual big-leaguer, if not a very good one, but that walk rate is really, really bad. He's going to have to step it up.

Belt!
   37. Tom (and his broom) Posted: January 04, 2011 at 10:41 PM (#3723413)
It's not like I am against having a decent sixth starter...just that it isn't worth worrying or doing something about now...

These are always going to be more expensive in the off-season as several teams grab a handful of pitchers for open auditions for rotation spots...towards the end of spring training teams are going to start looking to trade or release guys who don't make their rotation...Giants can sign a couple of fringe guys or trade Ishikawa or Schierholtz for someone of slightly higher caliber...(especially if Belt makes the team)...but right now it is a sellers market...the end of spring training is when it becomes a buyers market...
   38. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: January 04, 2011 at 10:53 PM (#3723422)
These are always going to be more expensive in the off-season as several teams grab a handful of pitchers for open auditions for rotation spots...towards the end of spring training teams are going to start looking to trade or release guys who don't make their rotation...Giants can sign a couple of fringe guys or trade Ishikawa or Schierholtz for someone of slightly higher caliber...(especially if Belt makes the team)...but right now it is a sellers market...the end of spring training is when it becomes a buyers market...


Fair enough.
   39. thinkmaui Posted: January 04, 2011 at 11:23 PM (#3723452)
The Rockies projected starting rotation actually has a slight edge in ERA+ for 2011 according to ZIPS. Interesting...
   40. Walt Davis Posted: January 04, 2011 at 11:26 PM (#3723454)
What do the Braves want for Derek Lowe?

If you're willing to pay the 2/$30 remaining on his contract, I suspect the Braves would be happy to trade him to you this second for Sandoval's next lunch (which should meet their post-game buffet needs for the season).

These are always going to be more expensive in the off-season as several teams grab a handful of pitchers for open auditions for rotation spots...towards the end of spring training teams are going to start looking to trade or release guys who don't make their rotation...Giants can sign a couple of fringe guys or trade Ishikawa or Schierholtz for someone of slightly higher caliber...(especially if Belt makes the team)...but right now it is a sellers market...the end of spring training is when it becomes a buyers market...

Huh? These guys are available right now for an NRI and you think it's wise to wait to pick over the guys that the Royals didn't think it was worth stashing in AAA?

On the minor-leaguers as comps ... yep, looks like something must have gone wrong. Koonce didn't play in the minors after 32, Dallimore after 31 but they are the best age-based comps for Burrell (34) and Renteria (34)?
   41. Tom (and his broom) Posted: January 05, 2011 at 12:29 AM (#3723496)
Walt,

By and large what is available for NRI invites now is lesser quality than what will be available at the end of March, right now the Giants would be competing against teams that are offering a shot at the rotation (and a MLB paycheck). And interesting that you mention the Royals, they are precisely the kind of team that may run out of space on their 40 man for a usable 6th starter, they have a stocked minor league organization and may discard pitchers that don't fit into their plans. By definition a 6th starter will usually be on the fence of being worth a 40 man spot.
   42. zenbitz Posted: January 05, 2011 at 12:38 AM (#3723501)
Derek Lowe for Aaron Rowand, straight up!
   43. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: January 05, 2011 at 12:42 AM (#3723504)
Dan, is it too early for an Eric Surkamp projection?
   44. zenbitz Posted: January 05, 2011 at 01:12 AM (#3723522)
@39
In 2010 the top 6 starters for Colorado had a 120 ERA+, for SF, 119 (albeit in 100 more IP).

If you add in the 16 replacement level starts from Rogers and Smith then it's 107 to 119 in favor of SF.

Would you prefer Cook/Francis/de la Rosa or Zito/Bumgarner?

In any case, it must be pretty close, even without weighting by the slightly bogus IP projections because Cain is projected to out pitch Chacin.

The offenses look very comparable as well... although the Rockies ironically have a black hole at 1B.

It makes me wonder what the HBT projection machine is smoking to predict the Giants at 96 wins and Colorado at 83... (and LA at 90)

My zips eyeballs put them at about 85/85/85 without considering defense (too lazy to compare and can't convert DBM stats to runs/wins anyway... projected ERA+ for players on roughly the same team should cover this anyway).

The CAIRO projections put the NL West at 85/84/83 (Rockies Giants Dodgers).

I still refuse to pay ESPN insider to see Szym's simulations! Curse you Dan! (And good luck)
   45. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 05, 2011 at 03:00 AM (#3723588)
Dallimore and Koonce don't actually have an effect on the projections since it was through their last year for both, but it does have them as the most similar up to that point in recent years.

Just the quickie comparison of their 4 most recent seasons, neutral park 2010, weighted to recent play (there is an error, I still project Renteria as if he were 33 as that's what the Miami Herald found his actual age to be a year younger than the reported one) counting stats per 600 PA:

Renteria, 2007-2010, 269/324/365, 24 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 47 BB, 89 K, 4.4 speed
Dallimore, 2002-2005, 270/326/362, 25 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 44 B, 76 K, 4.5 speed

Burrell, 2007-2010, 238/344/440, 26 2B, 1 3B, 25 HR, 85 BB, 147 K, 1.9 speed
Koonce, 2004-2007, 239/338/444, 27 2B, 1 3B, 26 HR, 76 BB, 150 K, 2.3 speed

Both Dallimore and Koonce were both a year younger than Renteria and Burrell, but ZiPS doesn't get too excited about a single year.
   46. Honkie Kong Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:11 AM (#3723626)
If you're willing to pay the 2/$30 remaining on his contract, I suspect the Braves would be happy to trade him to you this second for Sandoval's next lunch (which should meet their post-game buffet needs for the season).

Lowe is a perfectly fine contract, and I doubt he will be dumped by the Braves. Kawakami, on the other hand, is your perfect 4-5 pitcher, who can be had for free. Its a pity, he hasn't really pitched badly, but was shunted off by Bobby, and now is stuck in limbo.
   47. zenbitz Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:18 AM (#3723631)
Dan - Q from mccoveychronicles:
Peguero’s line is striking. Does “hit it on the ground and run fast” really translate that well from the Cal League to the majors?


Especially given his horrendous K/BB rates (projected). Someone else calculated that his Zips line comes out to a .350 BABIP. Which seems, uh, high.
   48. Tuque Posted: January 05, 2011 at 11:52 AM (#3723782)
Tim Lincecum SP 93% 2% 5% Ewell Blackwell Camilo Pascual Roger Clemens

Does anybody else find this kind of funny? Two very good, moderate-peak pitchers, and Roger ####### Clemens?
   49. Jose Canusee Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:12 PM (#3723873)
Looks like Sergio says fear my beard.
   50. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:20 PM (#3723886)
Blackwell's 4 more-or-less healthy seasons had WAR of 8.3, 6.3, 3.5, 3.1. That's a couple wins more than Lincecum's 4 years so far - Blackwell had a damned good peak. Pascual, too, with top WARs of 7.3, 5.7, 5.0, and 4.8.
   51. Honkie Kong Posted: January 05, 2011 at 04:27 PM (#3723898)
He is really fast and can hit a lot of triples - a player with that profile doesn't necessarily have to be that good overall to have a very high BABIP.

I am curious, how does ZiPS know he is really fast? Is there a manual input to the system?

Because it must be hard differentiating between a person who has been lucky, and a person who is fast ( and thus creating some of the luck ). Esp since I am assuming minor league data is fairly patchy.
   52. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 05, 2011 at 05:20 PM (#3723958)
I have my own speed score thing.

The 5 recent players above and below Peguero are Podsednik, Knoblauch, Samuel, Espy, Devon White, Butler, Raines, Torres, and Hatcher (in their primes).

For the record, I have Deion Sanders 1989-1992 and Jose Reyes 2004-2006 as the fastest live-ball players. The slowest (that anyone would have heard of) are Ernie Lombardi 1944-1945, Frank Thomas 2006-2007 and Gus Triandos 1960-1963.
   53. zenbitz Posted: January 05, 2011 at 05:21 PM (#3723959)
I get that "good CF + triples + sb" = fast to zips, and fast = high BABIP on GBs. I even think that it's somewhat reasonable that this BABIP *would* in fact translate well, even from the low minors (as long as you keep you legs)

However, .350 BABIP with a .400 SLG is basically Ichiro-lite. The only other comparable hitters in 2010 were Brett Gardner and Scott Podsednik... but even they were in the .340 BABIP range.
   54. Honkie Kong Posted: January 05, 2011 at 05:35 PM (#3723981)


For the record, I have Deion Sanders 1989-1992 and Jose Reyes 2004-2006 as the fastest live-ball players. The slowest (that anyone would have heard of) are Ernie Lombardi 1944-1945, Frank Thomas 2006-2007 and Gus Triandos 1960-1963.


Thanks for the info.

btw SYSTEM FAIL! No Jason Philips or Bengie Molina on it :)
   55. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 05, 2011 at 05:50 PM (#3724002)
However, .350 BABIP with a .400 SLG is basically Ichiro-lite. The only other comparable hitters in 2010 were Brett Gardner and Scott Podsednik... but even they were in the .340 BABIP range.

Don't forget everyone's favorite crazy BABIP anomaly, Austin Jackson.
   56. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 05, 2011 at 05:59 PM (#3724007)
btw SYSTEM FAIL! No Jason Philips or Bengie Molina on it :)

Molina is the slowest for 2007-2010 though. Carlos Gomez the fastest.
   57. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: January 05, 2011 at 11:59 PM (#3724360)
Dan, sorry to repeat, but you may have missed it above: can we get an Eric Surkamp projection?
   58. sportznut Posted: January 08, 2011 at 02:34 AM (#3726243)
No Greg Luzinski or Cecil Fielder for slowest? Blasphemy!
   59. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: January 13, 2011 at 10:37 PM (#3729661)
Just figured this out:

Pat Burrell has 285 career home runs. If he hits his ZiPS projection he'll pass Tim Salmon (299 home runs) and Rogers Hornsby (301) he'll have the most career home runs by a guy who never made an All-Star team. Matt Stairs with 265 (#5, after Eric Karros) is the only other active guy in the top 10. Fellow Giant Aubrey Huff (229) is #14 and Eric Chavez (230) is tied with Rob Deer for #12. So two current Giants, and 2 guys from the Moneyball A's are the active leaders. And the next active guy at #17 is Jose Guillen, once an Athletic and a Giant. Russ Branyan is the first active guy to have not played in the Bay Area.

It's not surprising to find a list like this dominated by Billy Beane and Brian Sabean creatures, but it's still interesting.
   60. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 28, 2011 at 03:44 AM (#3737876)
Request: Marc Kroon, if you please.
   61. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 28, 2011 at 03:52 AM (#3737879)
Whoa, Kroon is back?
   62. Baldrick Posted: January 28, 2011 at 04:40 AM (#3737897)
I would dance naked down the streets of SF if Sandoval met that projection.

I was in the Castro last weekend and this was pretty much going on, in the middle of the afternoon, no less. I don't think it had anything to do with Sandoval though.
   63. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 28, 2011 at 04:48 AM (#3737900)
yup, minor league deal w/ sf. kind of under the radar.
   64. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 28, 2011 at 05:37 AM (#3737926)
I will make sure to have Kroon at the end.

I should pay better attention to NPB. Holy shitballs, Kroon got the hang of pitching in Japan. He used to be worse at finding home plate than Jim Leyritz is at finding the Designated Driver tent.

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