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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

2011 ZiPS Projections - Seattle Mariners

That was…interesting.

Last year’s edition of the Mariners got quite a bit of hype for their defense and ZiPS liked the M’s to the tune of mid-80s wins in February (down to 82 wins by the opening day roster without Garko and Bedard’s playing time expectation reduced).

However, 82 wins turned out to be optimistic as the 2010 M’s would have needed a couple more months to get to that figure.  While the offense was always the biggest concern, nobody really expected the offense to be quite as bad as it turned out to be.  You could look at that lineup and think “OK, they need some real middle of the order guys” but if you say that you saw all of Kotchman, Figgins, Lopez, and Bradley spending most of the season struggling to keep their OPS above .600, you’re telling a fib.

Back in August, I looked at the Marcels for all offenses over the last 40 years and found the M’s as the 4th most underperforming, scoring just 73% of expected runs, behind only the 1978 A’s, the 1981 Blue Jays, and the 1988 Orioles.  The offense should bounce back (the rest of the top 10 underperformers gained 0.6 r/g the next season on average), but it won’t be good and with Cliff Lee gone, the Bedard expectations even lower, and no hope of getting the benefit of a Rowland-Smith rebound (if he does, it’ll be the Astros that get the benefit), the team won’t have the horses to contend.

My guess now would be that the team dead cat bounces back up to 70 wins, but there’s little chance of .500 this time around.

One mistake the team won't make again is trying to be

too cute - the Lopez-Figgins swap was too clever by half and Figgins went from being a Gold Glove-caliber 3B to a lousy 2B.

Side note:  I’m mostly over a nasty case of the flu, so ZiPS should start to return to their previous pace of posting and the team rundowns should be done first week of February (then comes the cleanup and various new projections)

Next up:  Angels

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Russell Branyan   L    1B  35   .235 .330 .480  97 319  46  75  15   0  21  49  42 114   2   0  119
Ichiro Suzuki     L    RF  37   .299 .340 .391 145 619  83 185  25   4   8  41  37  71  32   8  100
Jack Cust         L    DH  32   .229 .366 .404 137 445  70 102  18   0  20  64  95 182   2   2  111
Milton Bradley    B    LF  33   .241 .354 .393  90 295  43  71  13   1  10  35  47  84   5   2  105
Casey Kotchman    L    1B  28   .259 .326 .390 134 441  50 114  26   1  10  58  41  51   1   1   96
Franklin GutierrezR    CF  28   .253 .310 .392 151 530  75 134  25   2  15  62  43 126  17   4   91
Mike Carp         L    1B  25   .241 .316 .392 143 528  68 127  24   1  18  62  53 130   1   2   93
Justin Smoak      L    1B  24   .228 .333 .367 146 526  64 120  25   0  16  61  83 144   1   0   92
Chone Figgins     B    3B  33   .263 .353 .322 141 537  74 141  20   3   2  34  75 103  35  15   87
Dustin Ackley     L    2B  23   .244 .329 .356 155 599  98 146  30   8   7  53  72 100   9   3   88
Kyle Seager       L    2B  23   .268 .328 .364 123 514  79 138  24   2   7  60  45  95   9  10   90
Alex Liddi        R    3B  22   .244 .303 .384 156 606  86 148  34   6  13  86  47 196   7   7   87
Brad Nelson       L    1B  28   .232 .308 .380 119 410  50  95  20   1  13  48  45  89   4   4   88
Adam Kennedy      L    2B  35   .251 .316 .337 123 383  44  96  17   2   4  34  34  58  12   3   79
Luis Rodriguez    B    SS  31   .259 .320 .355  93 290  31  75  11   1   5  26  27  31   2   3   85
Michael Saunders  L    LF  24   .231 .303 .368 130 429  62  99  17   3  12  44  43 122  10   5   83
Jack Wilson       R    SS  33   .258 .299 .349  94 318  33  82  18   1   3  29  17  43   3   3   77
Ryan Langerhans   L    LF  31   .207 .317 .338  98 237  36  49  11   1   6  19  38  86   7   3   80
Tug Hulett        L    2B  28   .222 .307 .348 115 405  56  90  23   2   8  38  49 103   7   4   79
Johermyn Chavez   R    RF  22   .239 .297 .371 156 620  80 148  25   6  15  66  42 192   6  10   82
Greg Halman       R    CF  23   .207 .265 .404 139 527  81 109  20   3  26  74  35 227  13   7   80
Matt Tuiasosopo   R    3B  25   .222 .305 .344 110 392  60  87  19   1   9  42  43 124   3   2   78
Matt Mangini      L    3B  25   .238 .284 .355 136 501  59 119  20   3  11  55  28 139   4   1   74
Adam Moore        R    C   27   .243 .290 .349 117 436  45 106  20   1   8  43  24 103   1   1   74
Josh Bard         B    C   33   .227 .292 .347  78 242  19  55  14   0   5  25  23  49   0   0   75
Miguel Olivo      R    C   32   .220 .264 .382 106 372  41  82  15   3  13  51  20 122   6   3   75
Brendan Ryan      R    SS  29   .243 .298 .323 134 415  54 101  18   3   3  30  29  66  12   5   70
Sean Kazmar       R    SS  26   .239 .289 .328 138 494  60 118  22   2   6  50  34  97   7   2   69
Josh Wilson       R    SS  30   .235 .286 .328 120 387  35  91  20   2   4  33  19  79   7   2   68
Chris Gimenez     R    C   28   .214 .295 .332  93 304  35  65  13   1   7  29  34  90   2   1   73
Jake Shaffer      L    LF  23   .256 .294 .351 128 476  52 122  24   3   5  56  22 106   5  12   76
Eliezer Alfonzo   R    C   32   .226 .255 .366  67 235  22  53  10   1   7  26   7  70   0   1   68
Carlos Triunfel   R    SS  21   .245 .275 .323 123 465  57 114  14   2   6  63  15  67   9   9   63
Carlos Peguero    L    LF  24   .204 .261 .345 137 539  70 110  19   6  15  63  37 233   5   8   65
Chris Woodward    R    SS  35   .220 .277 .283  95 318  34  70  12   1   2  23  24  64   2   1   54

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Russell Branyan              AV/152          FR/103
Ichiro Suzuki                                                         AV/88   EX/93
Jack Cust                                                    PO/141          PO/141
Milton Bradley                                               FR/136          FR/136
Casey Kotchman                AV/32
Franklin Gutierrez                                            VG/96   EX/91   VG/96
Mike Carp                    FR/136                          FR/103
Justin Smoak                 AV/113
Chone Figgins                        FR/148   VG/67
Dustin Ackley                        FR/142
Kyle Seager                          AV/126  VG/114  FR/131
Alex Liddi                   AV/127          FR/117
Brad Nelson                  AV/123          PO/115          FR/105          FR/105
Adam Kennedy                 AV/126  VG/129  AV/125                          AV/111
Luis Rodriguez                       FR/113  AV/119   PO/95
Michael Saunders                                             VG/128  AV/130  VG/128
Jack Wilson                                           VG/84
Ryan Langerhans              AV/120                           VG/67  PO/102  AV/127
Tug Hulett                            AV/82  FR/111   PO/90  VG/110          VG/110
Johermyn Chavez                                              FR/150          FR/150
Greg Halman                                                  AV/129  AV/146  AV/129
Matt Tuiasosopo              AV/122  AV/120  FR/135  FR/120  FR/122
Matt Mangini                 AV/144          AV/141
Adam Moore               FR
Josh Bard                FR
Miguel Olivo             VG
Brendan Ryan                         AV/109  AV/116   EX/78          AV/111  AV/111
Sean Kazmar                          AV/114          FR/112
Josh Wilson                  AV/124  AV/122  AV/118  AV/130
Chris Gimenez            AV  AV/110          FR/124           AV/96          FR/116
Jake Shaffer                                                  AV/66  PO/108
Eliezer Alfonzo          AV  FR/114
Carlos Triunfel                      AV/130          FR/159
Carlos Peguero                                               FR/170  FR/160  FR/211
Chris Woodward               VG/112  AV/125  VG/132  AV/142  AV/111

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Felix Hernandez   R     25    2.75    17    7   33   33  236.0  196   72   17   71  231  148
Erik Bedard       L     32    3.58     3    2   10   10   55.3   49   22    6   23   54  114
Michael Pineda    R     22    4.12     6    6   22   20  107.0  105   49   12   38   83   99
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Jason Vargas      L     28    4.24     9   10   31   27  165.7  171   78   19   48  105   96
Yusmeiro Petit    R     26    4.55     4    6   26   13   83.0   83   42   13   26   71   89
Anthony Vasquez   L     24    4.61     7    8   20   18  113.3  128   58   12   30   57   88
Doug Fister       R     27    4.64     8   11   30   26  155.3  179   80   17   36   89   88
Garrett Olson     L     27    4.75     6    8   38   16  110.0  111   58   13   52   81   86
Chaz Roe          R     24    4.75     7   11   25   25  147.7  164   78   15   58   89   85
Blake Beavan      R     22    4.76     9   12   28   28  162.7  193   86   17   35   70   85
Luke French       L     25    4.77     8   12   28   25  158.3  177   84   18   55   80   85
Tom Wilhelmsen    R     27    4.97     3    5   10    9   50.7   56   28    5   26   28   82
Chris Seddon      L     27    5.05     6   10   27   19  119.3  128   67   16   56   72   80
Ian Snell         R     29    5.11     6   10   27   25  135.7  146   77   16   73  104   80
David Pauley      R     27    5.18     7   11   29   26  144.3  169   83   17   54   79   79
Charlie Haeger    R     27    5.25     7   12   27   23  132.0  135   77   15   91   92   77
Fabio Castro      L     26    5.40     5    9   29   19  115.0  131   69   12   64   75   75
Yoervis Medina    R     22    5.54     4    7   15   15   76.3   87   47   10   41   53   73
Mauricio Robles   L     22    5.63     6   12   27   26  124.7  127   78   18   93  105   72
Andrew Baldwin    R     28    5.73     5   11   31   18  125.7  156   80   19   44   64   71
Dan Cortes        R     24    5.73     5   10   32   20  103.7  111   66   10   87   76   71
Steve Bray        R     30    6.31     4   11   31   16  108.3  138   76   20   43   50   64

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
David Aardsma     R     29    3.50     4    3   56    0   54.0   43   21    5   29   60  116
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Brandon League    R     28    3.82     6    5   64    0   73.0   69   31    7   25   61  106
Josh Lueke        R     27    4.00     3    3   35    0   45.0   44   20    4   17   40  102
Shawn Kelley      R     27    4.17     3    3   36    0   41.0   39   19    5   17   38   97
Denny Bautista    R     30    4.21     3    4   50    0   57.7   51   27    5   40   61   96
Cesar Jimenez     L     26    4.30     1    1   20    1   23.0   23   11    2    9   19   94
Chris Smith       R     30    4.41     3    3   55    1   67.3   67   33    9   25   56   92
Mark Worrell      R     28    4.41     3    3   42    0   51.0   50   25    5   25   45   92
Joe Nelson        R     36    4.44     2    3   44    0   46.7   44   23    5   29   43   92
Jamey Wright      R     36    4.46     3    4   54    0   66.7   68   33    6   33   47   91
Royce Ring        L     30    4.58     2    2   50    0   37.3   39   19    4   16   26   89
Steven Shell      R     28    4.72     3    4   32    7   74.3   80   39    9   28   49   86
Josh Fields       R     25    4.91     1    2   26    0   29.3   29   16    3   22   23   83
Anthony Varvaro   R     26    4.91     2    3   49    0   58.7   55   32    5   50   51   83
Robert Rohrbaugh  L     27    4.95     3    4   22    7   67.3   79   37    7   20   39   82
Levale Speigner   R     30    5.01     4    6   47    0   64.7   75   36    7   25   33   81
Edward Paredes    L     24    5.19     3    5   46    1   60.7   66   35    6   38   38   78
Billy Traber      L     31    5.36     2    3   28    2   40.3   47   24    5   16   19   76
Scott Patterson   R     32    5.36     1    3   40    0   42.0   44   25    6   23   35   76

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Ichiro Suzuki       .322  .365  .418  2048  8762  1297  2818   333    84   114   685   558   894   468   112
Adam Kennedy        .272  .327  .380  1718  5637   704  1532   288    43    78   579   415   842   191    87
Chone Figgins       .278  .354  .359  1545  5916   882  1647   233    66    38   483   702  1031   421    93
Franklin Gutierrez  .254  .309  .389  1532  5262   711  1336   252    22   138   591   409  1149   143    89
Jack Wilson         .265  .306  .366  1531  5557   631  1471   283    37    69   495   306   687    46    77
Russell Branyan     .232  .322  .474  1410  4226   574   980   202     8   269   647   535  1519    21   111
Milton Bradley      .263  .358  .425  1374  4702   690  1236   247    20   159   602   650  1084   102   109
Casey Kotchman      .255  .322  .386  1289  4216   463  1077   245    11    95   552   387   448    15    91

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Felix Hernandez    240  142    0    3.21  538  539     3722 3269 1329  374 1129 3423    128

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Russell Branyan   1B    22%  29%  20%  20%  10%     Willie McCovey       Jose Canseco         Tony Clark
Ichiro Suzuki     RF    10%  21%  20%  23%  25%         Paul Waner           Sam Rice          Al Bumbry
Jack Cust         DH     7%  21%  21%  30%  21%        Jim Gentile       Bernie Carbo        Carlos Pena
Milton Bradley    LF     6%  19%  21%  27%  28%      Dwayne Murphy        Mark Whiten     Benny Agbayani
Casey Kotchman    1B     1%   4%  10%  34%  51%       Gary Burnham     Jose Tolentino        Andre David
Franklin GutierrezCF     9%  15%  29%  29%  18%       Chad Mottola        Marlon Byrd Jeffrey Fiorentino
Mike Carp         1B     1%   4%   8%  27%  60%   Brant Colamarino        Jim Bonnici       Kevin Barker
Justin Smoak      1B     1%   5%   9%  28%  56%       Kevin Barker       Jose Birriel          Steve Cox
Chone Figgins     3B     3%  10%  16%  24%  47%       Omar Vizquel      Mark McLemore        Bobby Adams
Dustin Ackley     2B    10%  10%  17%  27%  36%     Orlando Hudson         Russ Adams      William Suero
Kyle Seager       2B     5%   6%  11%  22%  56%      Jeff Treadway         Aaron Hill       Ernest Riles
Alex Liddi        3B     2%   5%  12%  22%  59%         B.J. Upton        Sibby Sisti       Mathew Gamel
Brad Nelson       1B     0%   2%   4%  17%  76%       Frank Jacobs       Andy Barkett      George Canale
Adam Kennedy      2B     4%   6%  11%  23%  55%         Todd Haney        Jim Gantner        Jerry Lumpe
Luis Rodriguez    SS     5%   9%  22%  31%  33%      Nelson Norman         Mark Lemke        Larry Brown
Michael Saunders  LF     1%   4%   6%  13%  77%       Dan Ortmeier      Alonzo Powell       Craig Brooks
Jack Wilson       SS     2%   4%  14%  28%  52%         Garth Iorg     Rafael Ramirez    Alvaro Espinoza
Ryan Langerhans   LF     1%   2%   3%   8%  87%     David Dellucci      Junior Spivey      Damon Mashore
Tug Hulett        2B     2%   3%   7%  19%  70%      Tony Schrager      Kevin Melillo     Edgar Gonzalez
Johermyn Chavez   RF     0%   1%   2%   6%  90%        Pedro Munoz     George Hinshaw      Vernon Thomas
Greg Halman       CF     2%   5%  13%  23%  57%     Glenallen Hill     Chad Hermansen    Gerald Williams
Matt Tuiasosopo   3B     0%   2%   5%  15%  77%         Matt Craig       Ryan Roberts        Scott Moore
Matt Mangini      3B     0%   2%   4%  12%  82%     George Hinshaw       Jeff Moronko        Bobby Smith
Adam Moore        C      1%   4%  11%  31%  53%       Geronimo Gil         Dan Wilson      Damian Miller
Josh Bard         C      1%   6%  10%  25%  58%     Keith McDonald  George Mitterwald  Nelson Santovenia
Miguel Olivo      C      3%  12%  20%  32%  34%          Jim Hegan        Jason LaRue         Mike Heath
Brendan Ryan      SS     1%   3%  10%  24%  61%       Rusty Hamric       Derek Wathan       Jesse Garcia
Sean Kazmar       SS     2%   3%  10%  26%  59%        Joey Aragon    Kevin Polcovich     Wilson Delgado
Josh Wilson       SS     0%   2%   9%  22%  67%        Juan Castro         Kevin Baez    Kevin Polcovich
Chris Gimenez     C      2%   6%  11%  29%  53%       B.J. Waszgis       Danny Ardoin       Ray Stephens
Jake Shaffer      LF     0%   0%   1%   2%  97%    Garret Anderson       Andre Ethier        Dave Leeper
Eliezer Alfonzo   C      1%   2%   5%  17%  75%  George Mitterwald  Nelson Santovenia     Robert Machado
Carlos Triunfel   SS     2%   2%   4%   8%  83%        Al Pedrique        Gus Polidor       Jim Scranton
Carlos Peguero    LF     0%   0%   0%   0% 100%       Ralph Bryant        Dennis Hood        Brad Snyder
Chris Woodward    SS     0%   1%   2%   5%  92%      Willy Miranda       Jeff Branson        Dal Maxvill

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Felix Hernandez   SP     90%    5%    5%      Roger Clemens          Mike Witt      Bert Blyleven
David Aardsma     RP     40%   43%   17%         Ryne Duren          Juan Cruz   Calvin Schiraldi
Erik Bedard       SP     54%   35%   11%      Mark Langston          Ted Lilly       Chuck Finley
Brandon League    RP     23%   54%   23%         Rich Bordi        Gene Nelson    Robbie Crabtree
Josh Lueke        RP     26%   44%   30%       Bert Roberge       Jose Alvarez       Will Cunnane
Michael Pineda    SP     32%   51%   17%       Julio Valera     Salomon Torres         David Nied
Shawn Kelley      RP     16%   43%   41%          Pete Ladd      Justin Speier     Keith Atherton
Denny Bautista    RP     11%   46%   43%         Mark Clear    John D’Acquisto        Colter Bean
Jason Vargas      SP     19%   58%   23%     Alfonso Pulido        Mike Maroth        Kirk Rueter
Cesar Jimenez     RP     27%   37%   36%         Mike Munoz         Mark Mimbs     Blake McGinley
Chris Smith       RP      6%   34%   60%         Doug Jones      Willie Fraser         Rich Bordi
Mark Worrell      RP     10%   42%   48%      Jorge Vasquez      Roberto Giron       Marino Salas
Joe Nelson        RP      8%   37%   55%       Rich DeLucia        Rudy Seanez         Ryne Duren
Jamey Wright      RP     10%   32%   58%           Don Aase        Greg Minton          Ben Weber
Yusmeiro Petit    SP     17%   43%   41%      Jose Melendez        Andrew Good      Mike Gardiner
Royce Ring        RP     11%   31%   57%       Javier Lopez       Will Brunson         Todd Rizzo
Anthony Vasquez   SP     11%   47%   41%   Bobby Livingston      Blaine Beatty   Derek Lilliquist
Doug Fister       SP      8%   50%   42%        Josh Towers        Greg Wooten       Heath Totten
Steven Shell      RP      2%   28%   70%          Donn Pall      Royal Clayton         Eric Moody
Garrett Olson     SP      1%   27%   72%         Scott Eyre    John O’Donoghue       Rafael Roque
Chaz Roe          SP      4%   44%   53%         Joe Housey          Josh Fogg  Michael Macdonald
Blake Beavan      SP      3%   43%   54%       Carlos Silva        Josh Towers         Dave Geeve
Luke French       SP      4%   41%   55%       Jeff Ballard      Alfred Mathes       Derrin Ebert
Josh Fields       RP      8%   29%   63% Heathcliff Slocumb         Jeff Smith     Marc Pisciotta
Anthony Varvaro   RP      2%   25%   72%         Josh Banks         Jeff Smith     Andres Berumen
Robert Rohrbaugh  RP      2%   25%   73%          Chris Key        Cliff Young     Lee Guetterman
Tom Wilhelmsen    SP      8%   33%   58%         Sean White       Brett Laxton      Jeff Fulchino
Levale Speigner   RP      3%   17%   81%        Carl Willis        Bryan Corey         Eric Moody
Chris Seddon      SP      1%   25%   74%          Tom Drees     Justin Hampson           Ed Hodge
Ian Snell         SP      1%   21%   77%   Adrian Hernandez        Greg Keagle          Kip Wells
David Pauley      SP      1%   22%   78%         Don August        Pat Ahearne    Cameron Reimers
Edward Paredes    RP      1%   12%   87%        Brian Adams       Mike Venafro          Jose Cano
Charlie Haeger    SP      1%   15%   85%       Matt DeSalvo         Mike Smith      Derrick Lewis
Billy Traber      RP      3%   18%   78%      Mark Thurmond    Stubby Overmire     Rusty Gerhardt
Scott Patterson   RP      3%   19%   78%           Bob Long      Mike Jeffcoat    Darwin Cubillan
Fabio Castro      SP      0%   15%   85%          Ben Fritz       Bruce Ruffin          Phil Coke
Yoervis Medina    SP      1%   14%   84%      Matt Achilles       Brian Rogers         Kevin Hart
Mauricio Robles   SP      0%    9%   91%     Paul Spoljaric        Jeff Taylor          Corey Lee
Andrew Baldwin    SP      0%    5%   95%        Felipe Lira      Tim McClaskey          Dave Ford
Dan Cortes        SP      1%    6%   93%     Jason Phillips        Mike Lumley         Brian Wood
Steve Bray        SP      0%    2%   98%      Tim McClaskey        Jason Roach    Brandon Emanuel

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Russell Branyan          2%       9%      35%       0%       0%      10%      16%       0%
Ichiro Suzuki           48%       9%       2%       1%       4%       1%       2%      51%
Jack Cust                0%      33%       4%       0%       0%      10%       6%       0%
Milton Bradley           2%      24%       2%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%
Casey Kotchman           4%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Franklin Gutierrez       2%       1%       1%       0%       1%       1%       0%       5%
Mike Carp                1%       2%       1%       0%       0%       3%       1%       0%
Justin Smoak             0%       7%       0%       1%       0%       2%       1%       0%
Chone Figgins            7%      20%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%      63%
Dustin Ackley            1%       4%       1%       4%      32%       1%       1%       0%
Kyle Seager             10%       5%       1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       1%
Alex Liddi               1%       1%       2%      12%      19%       2%       1%       0%
Brad Nelson              0%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Adam Kennedy             4%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       2%
Luis Rodriguez           8%       4%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Michael Saunders         0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Jack Wilson              7%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ryan Langerhans          0%       5%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Tug Hulett               0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Johermyn Chavez          0%       0%       0%       1%      13%       4%       0%       0%
Greg Halman              0%       0%       2%       0%       1%      31%       0%       2%
Matt Tuiasosopo          0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Matt Mangini             0%       0%       0%       0%       2%       1%       0%       0%
Adam Moore               1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Bard                1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Miguel Olivo             0%       0%       4%       0%       2%       1%       1%       0%
Brendan Ryan             1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       2%
Sean Kazmar              0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Wilson              0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Chris Gimenez            0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jake Shaffer             3%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Eliezer Alfonzo          1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Carlos Triunfel          2%       0%       1%       0%       1%       1%       0%       2%
Carlos Peguero           0%       0%       0%       0%      11%       1%       0%       0%
Chris Woodward           0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Felix Hernandez           84%        93%        79%         5%        96%
David Aardsma             32%        78%        91%         0%        78%
Erik Bedard               31%        75%        69%         2%        66%
Brandon League            18%        71%        26%         4%        74%
Josh Lueke                18%        62%        44%         4%        80%
Michael Pineda             7%        52%        14%         2%        62%
Shawn Kelley              16%        50%        59%         3%        60%
Denny Bautista            11%        49%        88%         0%        76%
Jason Vargas               3%        42%         1%        11%        50%
Cesar Jimenez             27%        51%        23%         9%        78%
Chris Smith                4%        34%        27%         2%        30%
Mark Worrell               7%        44%        42%         0%        73%
Joe Nelson                 8%        37%        58%         0%        60%
Jamey Wright               8%        36%         7%         0%        74%
Yusmeiro Petit             3%        31%        34%         7%        18%
Royce Ring                11%        33%         7%         2%        71%
Anthony Vasquez            3%        26%         0%        25%        70%
Doug Fister                2%        21%         0%        47%        55%
Steven Shell               1%        20%         1%         2%        42%
Garrett Olson              1%        17%         5%         0%        45%
Chaz Roe                   0%        15%         0%         0%        64%
Blake Beavan               0%        15%         0%        61%        61%
Luke French                1%        12%         0%         2%        53%
Josh Fields                8%        27%        21%         0%        74%
Anthony Varvaro            1%        16%        39%         0%        86%
Robert Rohrbaugh           1%        17%         0%        18%        68%
Tom Wilhelmsen             2%        21%         1%         0%        81%
Levale Speigner            2%        15%         0%         2%        60%
Chris Seddon               0%         7%         0%         0%        29%
Ian Snell                  0%         5%         8%         0%        48%
David Pauley               0%         4%         0%         0%        45%
Edward Paredes             1%         9%         1%         0%        75%
Charlie Haeger             0%         3%         2%         0%        59%
Billy Traber               3%        16%         0%         6%        58%
Scott Patterson            2%        16%        29%         0%        39%
Fabio Castro               0%         3%         0%         0%        66%
Yoervis Medina             0%         4%         2%         0%        46%
Mauricio Robles            0%         1%        29%         0%        22%
Andrew Baldwin             0%         1%         0%         1%        21%
Dan Cortes                 0%         2%         5%         0%        75%
Steve Bray                 0%         1%         0%         2%         8%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
San Francisco Giants

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 12, 2011 at 06:16 PM | 42 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Juan V Posted: January 12, 2011 at 06:32 PM (#3728816)
This is a bad team.
   2. Rays&Sox; Posted: January 12, 2011 at 06:35 PM (#3728819)
Can we get a projection for Justin Miller? Baseball's tat king. He went from the Dodgers to the M's and didn't make either list.
   3. limozeen Posted: January 12, 2011 at 06:44 PM (#3728822)
Could we get a projection for RP Brian Moran? Many thanks.
   4. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: January 12, 2011 at 06:48 PM (#3728824)
As a Mariners' fan, this makes me weep. But I do expect Ackley, Smoak and Cortes (as a reliever, a la Andrew Bailey) to break out this year, and for some of the C+ish prospects to make a leap, specifically James Jones, Esteilon Peguero, and Nate Tenbrink.

Speaking of Tenbrink: he mashed in A+ like Seager, and also put up 381/427 OBP/SLG in AA in 72 games. He could be a cup of coffee type in September, the new Michael Saunders. He might be worth considering on a future round of projections . . .

Glad you're getting well, Dan.
   5. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: January 12, 2011 at 06:51 PM (#3728830)
This is the 6th best organization . . . in the PCL.
   6. Walt Davis Posted: January 12, 2011 at 06:54 PM (#3728834)
found the M's as the 4th most underperforming

ZiPS has no sense of irony
   7. Walt Davis Posted: January 12, 2011 at 06:59 PM (#3728840)
ZiPS usually under-projects Ichrio right? Or is it time to panic?

Is Felix the best starter projection so far? Ever?
   8. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 12, 2011 at 07:04 PM (#3728846)
Dan, what's the ERA+ bump (more or less) from this defense? (I think I caught your cold, by the way - impressive since we've never met.)

Not their likely lineup, but they might open with:
Olivo (VG arm), Smoak (AV), 2b, Figgins (VG), Wilson/Ryan (VG/EX), Saunders (VG), Gutierrez (EX), Suzuki (EX). That's a mighty spicy meatball, rangewise.

Oh, and: admit it - you bumped Ichiro a few points down from .304 or something to get page hits.... confess! confess!
   9. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 12, 2011 at 07:06 PM (#3728850)
As a Mariners' fan, this makes me weep. But I do expect Ackley, Smoak and Cortes (as a reliever, a la Andrew Bailey) to break out this year

The sad think is if Ackley, Smoak, Saunders and Pineda all break out to above average players immediately, this is still a terrible team.

They desperately need Figgins to have a scorching first half so maybe they can move him at the deadline.

They should really consider trading Ichiro, but business/fan considerations probably prevent that. Hard to believe he'll have much left when this team is ready to contend again (2013?).
   10. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 12, 2011 at 07:10 PM (#3728855)
ZiPS usually under-projects Ichrio right? Or is it time to panic?

Actually, Ichiro isn't one of the ZiPS problems (like Gryboski and Buehrle used to be):'


Year- ZiPS-------- Actual----
2004 325/373/436 372/414/455
2005 343/390/436 303/350/436
2006 319/366/429 322/370/416
2007 319/366/413 351/396/431
2008 322/372/404 310/361/386
2009 304/354/383 352/386/465
2010 325/368/414 315/359/394
   11. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 12, 2011 at 07:13 PM (#3728859)
I'll also do the requests.
   12. AROM Posted: January 12, 2011 at 07:20 PM (#3728868)
But I do expect ...some of the C+ish prospects to make a leap, specifically James Jones


Try to avoid drinking the kool aid.
   13. Jim (jimmuscomp) Posted: January 12, 2011 at 07:21 PM (#3728869)
found the M's as the 4th most underperforming

ZiPS has no sense of irony


Dammit, Walt. That is TOO GOOD.
   14. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 12, 2011 at 07:25 PM (#3728875)
found the M's as the 4th most underperforming

ZiPS has no sense of irony



Dammit, Walt. That is TOO GOOD.


Concur. Dan you really should've cooked those numbers somehow.
   15. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 12, 2011 at 07:31 PM (#3728877)
Glad you're getting well, Dan.

Thanks! For now on, I'm getting a flu shot. I never have before as my immune system is generally good at kicking the ass of these types of things.

In retrospect, I should have taken it more seriously than simply taking a lot of cough medicine and sleeping a lot (my temperature was above 102 for 3 days straight and nothing brought it down), but I'm OK now except for general weakness and lots of gross stuff leaving my head.

Not sure if it's a sign of aging (I turn 33 in June, so I'm not that old) or if this was just a particularly nasty bug, but I'm going to do my best to avoid a repeat next winter.
   16. John DiFool2 Posted: January 12, 2011 at 07:38 PM (#3728882)
Actually, Ichiro isn't one of the ZiPS problems (like Gryboski and Buehrle used to be):


Nonetheless, Ichiro has been +52 against the projections over the last 5 years-in each of those years ZIPs has consistently projected him to hit below his career average, which has been only one point less than his career mark in those years (.331 to .330). I'll easily take the over on the .299.
   17. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 12, 2011 at 07:39 PM (#3728883)
Could we get a projection for RP Brian Moran?


GET A PROJECTION (MORANS)

GO USA
   18. BobbyS Posted: January 12, 2011 at 08:37 PM (#3728933)
Is Felix the best starter projection so far? Ever?


Ubaldo got a 153 ERA+ Projection this year. I imagine Johan's 2.95 Projection for the 2007 Twins resulted in an even higher ERA+, but it wasn't listed back then. I'd guess there were a few more that broke the 150, 160 mark.
   19. jfish26101 Posted: January 12, 2011 at 09:19 PM (#3728966)
I think it depends what stats you want to use. That said, I have Felix as the 3rd best SP on the disk (so far) behind Lincecum and Ubaldo (in that order I believe but I left my spreadsheet at work).
   20. Rants Mulliniks Posted: January 12, 2011 at 09:20 PM (#3728969)
Lincecum's projection for this year is 150.

Dan - forget the flu shot, it doesn't work at all. Start taking 3000 IU of Vit. D everyday, in September, and keep it up til spring and you'll be fine.
   21. jfish26101 Posted: January 12, 2011 at 09:32 PM (#3728983)
...I'm not going strictly off of ERA+ though. I may be wrong on the order but I think I have Lincecum ahead of Ubaldo for next year.
   22. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 12, 2011 at 09:54 PM (#3728997)
Ummm, free trade and flu shots - two things I disagree with CP on. :) [I'm pro on both.]

[this was not a hijack attempt]
   23. joeysdadjoe Posted: January 12, 2011 at 10:38 PM (#3729033)
Wasn't expecting Russell The Muscle to list over Ichiro in the hitters section.
   24. Jim (jimmuscomp) Posted: January 12, 2011 at 10:51 PM (#3729049)
Jamey Wright RP 10% 32% 58% Don Aase Greg Minton Ben Weber


So, Jamey Wright has three comps listed here and all are former Angel relievers. Creepy....

Wow, Felix's #2 comp is a favorite from my youth: Mike Witt.

It's fun rifling through the comp lists....
   25. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 12, 2011 at 10:56 PM (#3729051)
Well, he barely did it, if Ichiro over Cust is any indication.
   26. rLr Is King Of The Romans And Above Grammar Posted: January 12, 2011 at 11:02 PM (#3729054)
I'm OK now except for general weakness and lots of gross stuff leaving my head.

Put it in the Forums.
   27. philosofool Posted: January 13, 2011 at 01:02 AM (#3729136)
Justin Smoak is a switch hitter, which I'm sure you know. ZiPS apears not to, however.
   28. Repoz Posted: January 13, 2011 at 01:09 AM (#3729137)
Hey...Harold Reynolds said Ichiro will have more RBI's this season than last!

So redo this!
   29. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 13, 2011 at 04:56 PM (#3729392)
Dan - forget the flu shot, it doesn't work at all.


This is purely anecdotal, but every year I've taken a flu shot, I've gotten the flu, and every year where I didn't, I didn't.
   30. Ron Johnson Posted: January 13, 2011 at 05:13 PM (#3729408)
I think I caught your cold, by the way - impressive since we've never met.


Dan S. -- patient zero in the internet based flu. I caught it too!
   31. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 13, 2011 at 05:25 PM (#3729417)
Glad to have the virus named after me after I'm OK - the people that diseases are named after seem to have pretty poor survival rates.
   32. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: January 13, 2011 at 06:01 PM (#3729434)
Glad to have the virus named after me after I'm OK - the people that diseases are named after seem to have pretty poor survival rates.


Steve Blass and Mackey Sasser are both doing fine.
   33. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: January 13, 2011 at 06:14 PM (#3729441)
Haven't gotten the flu since I starting getting flu shots a few years back, even when the rest of my family has it. (Dan's virus, which morphed into a cold when I caught it, aside.)
   34. Dangerous Dean Posted: January 13, 2011 at 06:41 PM (#3729459)
I know no system is fool-proof and I do appreciate Dan's hard work. But I wonder how Russell Branyan got comps of McCovey and Canseco. Is that his comp for their careers at the same age? If so, it is WAY off for them. McCovey had a .266/.420/.546 season in 1973. Canseco was .252/.377/.444 in his 35 yr old season.
   35. Josh1 Posted: January 13, 2011 at 07:11 PM (#3729483)
The Hernandez career projection is basically a longer career Schilling.
   36. Walt Davis Posted: January 13, 2011 at 07:18 PM (#3729491)
Only just noticed that ZiPS doesn't project 3000 hits for Ichiro. Shock! Horror! Terrorists have won! Etc!
   37. zenbitz Posted: January 13, 2011 at 07:43 PM (#3729520)
Ichiro projections, historical:

Zips gives him generally 50 points of ISO OBP, and that seems pretty normal for him, although eyeballing it it looks like when his BA is REALLY high his BB rate goes down a bit. I don't know if this is typical of guys who can hit >.350... so whatever.

his ISO SLG projections are essentally 90 90 100 100 80 80 90 (with the bump back for his awesome 2009). While Ichiro's real numbers have a much higher variance, they seem to be centered around 100 or so.

That leaves his BA and we know that has a pretty high variance.
Zips has been -50, +40, 0, -40, +10, -50, +10.

I don't know what you can say about that except it's obviously hard to predict batting average (which in RL Ichiros has gone between .300 and .370).

So I don't see any pattern of misprediction here at all.

Bringing up the 2011 forecast - note that Ichiro actually didn't quite make his 2010 Zips numbers (although I am sure that is well within margin of error), so that cannot help his projection in his age 37 year.

Is .299 a reasonable projection? Would forecasting him to hit .315 again (or even higher) be *more* rational? He's 37. I think "zero drop in BA" would be highly optimistic considering that even Ichiro isn't immortal.

If we assume that a fully healthy and motivated 37 year old Ichiro would hit about .320, then just mixing in some nagging injury is probably enough to drop that 20 points or so in aggregate.

One of these days - whether he's 37 or 38 or 41 he's going to pull a hammy bad during the season and his BA will drop - Zips is just making placing some bet that he falls off some this year.

This, by the way, is my theory on why fans (of the team, but also of baseball) uniformly overpredict players. They try to predict mode or true talent level and don't adequatly weight the chance of injury/age related decline. (They also often forget to regress towards the mean and assume that any steps forward or backwards in stats are more permanent talent changes than they probably are... but these numbers seem to balance out high/low)

Just a theory.
   38. GEB4000 Posted: January 14, 2011 at 06:10 AM (#3729874)
ZIPS has hitting .289 the rest of his career and .285 after this season. ZIPS thinks Ichiro is turning into Juan Pierre for the rest of his career.
   39. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 14, 2011 at 10:01 AM (#3729902)
But I wonder how Russell Branyan got comps of McCovey and Canseco. Is that his comp for their careers at the same age?

Near-age comps.
   40. Ryan Lind Posted: January 14, 2011 at 11:00 AM (#3729906)
Last year's Ichiro talk is relatively amusing now. As it turns out, ZiPS pretty much nailed his 2010. Actually over-projected a tiny bit.
   41. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 14, 2011 at 01:59 PM (#3729930)
Really? My memory of the Ichiro/projections discussion was that the ZiPS projections have mostly reasonable, while other forecasting systems (PECOTA, I'm looking in your direction) whiff on him regularly.

Goes to thread... Yup, not seeing a lot of amusing comments there
   42. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: January 14, 2011 at 02:02 PM (#3729931)
In that thread, I had a comparison of ZiPS and PECOTA over the years on Ichiro. While the ZiPS record is quite good, I think thte perception of problems in Ichiro projection comes from other systems that never figured him out.

Year------ ZiPS-------- Actual------ PECOTA
2004 325/373/436 372/414/455 309/351/423
2005 343/390/436 303/350/436 311/355/415
2006 319/366/429 322/370/416 308/343/406
2007 319/366/413 351/396/431 310/354/398
2008 322/372/404 310/361/386 304/346/384
2009 304/354/383 352/386/465 292/338/359

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