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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, December 20, 2010
2011 ZiPS Projections - St. Louis Cardinals
2010 was kind of a disappointment for the Cardinals - the Reds had a lot go right - but 86 wins can hardly be called a major disaster. St. Louis should be competitive in a wide-open Central division in which 3 teams are probably very close (STL, CIN, MIL) and the Cubs aren’t so hopeless that they can’t compete with a bit of luck.
People are probably tired of me ######## about the Cards offseason (written about it both on ESPN and Twitter extensively), but the short version is that the team didn’t really evaluate the roster very well. Berkman can probably still hit, but sticking him in rightfield, a position he hasn’t played regularly in a long time and never all that well, seems to be a fool’s errand, especially on what looks to be one of the weakest defensive Cardinals teams that I can remember. Ryan Theriot was a completely ridiculous idea - Ryan didn’t hit, but he at least showed Gold Glove defense and there’s no good reason to think Theriot’s a better player than Tyler Greene. In fact, it’s pretty disturbing how small the gap between Theriot and Pete Kozma/Donovan Solano, players nobody thinks should be starting in the majors in 2011. Essentially, Lance Berkman was a mediocre answer to a problem and Theriot a terrible answer to a made-up problem.
However, the team has good pitching and enough outfield stars that they should compete very well unless the injury bug hits the rotation (which is very possible given the DL stints of 4 of the 5 likely starters).
Next up: Dodgers
Oracle on Twitter
Batting Projections
Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
Albert Pujols R 1B 31 .314 .419 .592 148 539 100 169 37 1 37 107 97 65 12 4 169
Matt Holliday R LF 31 .296 .376 .491 152 581 94 172 37 2 24 99 67 102 14 5 131
Lance Berkman B RF 35 .262 .379 .449 124 423 67 111 24 2 17 73 79 88 7 3 122
Colby Rasmus L CF 24 .262 .341 .443 153 503 84 132 27 2 20 61 60 131 12 6 110
Allen Craig R LF 26 .280 .333 .438 141 518 70 145 29 1 17 81 39 106 3 1 106
Jon Jay L RF 26 .284 .341 .403 152 529 75 150 30 3 9 57 40 77 15 7 100
David Freese R 3B 28 .263 .325 .402 99 353 44 93 18 2 9 50 29 87 2 1 95
Nick Stavinoha R RF 29 .274 .309 .411 122 358 39 98 18 2 9 47 17 60 2 0 92
Daniel Descalso L 2B 24 .268 .330 .394 146 559 85 150 33 5 9 71 47 71 7 5 94
Mark Hamilton L 1B 26 .246 .322 .408 96 333 41 82 18 0 12 44 34 97 0 0 95
Yadier Molina R C 28 .277 .340 .366 135 465 37 129 20 0 7 58 41 44 6 3 90
Matt Carpenter L 3B 25 .257 .343 .364 126 483 64 124 24 5 6 46 60 110 6 2 91
Bryan Anderson L C 24 .261 .319 .387 101 326 38 85 16 2 7 35 26 68 1 0 89
Skip Schumaker L 2B 31 .276 .333 .365 147 504 70 139 23 2 6 41 42 62 5 3 88
Aaron Luna R LF 24 .223 .347 .365 124 394 54 88 16 5 10 44 52 103 6 2 92
Randy Winn B RF 37 .258 .315 .360 123 364 46 94 19 3 4 41 32 61 12 1 82
Amaury Cazana R LF 36 .259 .299 .401 74 247 26 64 8 0 9 38 14 53 0 0 87
Tyler Greene R SS 27 .238 .301 .373 131 466 69 111 20 5 11 39 35 132 18 5 81
Andrew Brown R 1B 26 .239 .309 .377 108 401 45 96 17 1 12 45 36 122 1 1 84
Daryl Jones L CF 24 .248 .325 .353 128 479 58 119 18 7 6 42 46 117 14 8 83
Thomas Pham R CF 23 .234 .319 .360 131 431 61 101 23 5 7 46 51 124 16 9 83
Adron Chambers L CF 24 .245 .323 .350 132 440 66 108 14 10 4 37 40 103 14 9 82
Ryan Theriot R SS 31 .269 .327 .324 149 581 74 156 17 3 3 38 48 70 19 9 76
Steve Hill R C 26 .239 .288 .382 106 419 41 100 20 2 12 52 27 117 1 1 79
Jason LaRue R C 37 .239 .309 .352 39 88 8 21 4 0 2 8 6 14 0 0 78
Tony Cruz R C 24 .241 .293 .364 112 431 45 104 25 2 8 49 32 91 1 1 76
Kevin Howard L 3B 30 .249 .299 .352 102 338 36 84 15 1 6 33 24 48 3 2 75
Gerald Laird R C 31 .240 .302 .342 107 342 38 82 18 1 5 33 26 64 4 2 73
James Rapoport L CF 26 .250 .314 .317 130 496 64 124 15 6 2 42 45 89 13 6 71
Pete Kozma R SS 23 .236 .294 .336 154 592 65 140 27 4 8 62 49 136 10 2 70
Donovan Solano R SS 23 .259 .295 .327 135 459 54 119 18 2 3 36 20 59 4 1 67
Pedro Feliz R 3B 36 .245 .279 .350 132 437 42 107 18 2 8 53 21 49 1 1 68
Aaron Miles B 2B 34 .263 .300 .320 105 266 30 70 10 1 1 23 14 31 2 2 67
Defensive Projections
Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF
Albert Pujols AV/85
Matt Holliday AV/88
Lance Berkman AV/74 PO/99
Colby Rasmus VG/144 AV/169 VG/144
Allen Craig AV/106 FR/129 AV/123 FR/123
Jon Jay VG/76 AV/36 AV/92
David Freese AV/110 AV/98
Nick Stavinoha AV/131 FR/92 FR/115
Daniel Descalso AV/121 AV/137 AV/115 PO/137
Mark Hamilton FR/84 FR/112
Yadier Molina EX FR/114
Matt Carpenter FR/66
Bryan Anderson AV
Skip Schumaker FR/131 AV/114 FR/96 FR/106
Aaron Luna PO/141 AV/111 AV/120
Randy Winn AV/70 PO/98 AV/58
Amaury Cazana FR/110 PO/127
Tyler Greene AV/128 AV/116 AV/122
Andrew Brown AV/218 FR/116 FR/107 AV/129
Daryl Jones AV/157 AV/184 AV/112
Thomas Pham AV/178 FR/147 AV/111
Adron Chambers AV/110 AV/245 AV/158
Ryan Theriot AV/94 FR/90
Steve Hill AV FR/177 FR/180 FR/180
Jason LaRue VG
Tony Cruz VG AV/117 FR/132
Kevin Howard FR/116 FR/153 FR/151 PO/156
Gerald Laird VG
James Rapoport AV/177 VG/114
Pete Kozma AV/139
Donovan Solano VG/113 AV/88 FR/126
Pedro Feliz AV/141 AV/79
Aaron Miles AV/92 FR/123 PO/112 FR/114
Pitching Projections - Starters
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Adam Wainwright R 29 2.85 19 7 32 32 214.7 188 68 15 55 194 140
Chris Carpenter R 36 3.33 11 6 25 25 162.3 151 60 13 42 118 120
Jaime Garcia L 24 3.53 9 6 21 21 117.3 108 46 9 47 98 113
Jake Westbrook R 32 4.11 6 5 17 17 103.0 102 47 10 36 65 97
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96
Bryan Augenstein R 24 4.35 7 8 26 21 124.0 136 60 11 37 82 91
Brad Penny R 33 4.50 6 6 17 16 96.0 103 48 10 30 58 89
Kyle Lohse R 32 4.62 7 8 22 22 122.7 135 63 13 40 76 86
Lance Lynn R 24 4.87 9 12 30 29 157.0 167 85 18 75 106 82
P.J. Walters R 26 4.90 7 9 28 24 139.7 149 76 17 59 107 81
Jeff Suppan R 36 5.17 6 9 29 23 134.0 156 77 17 54 66 77
Adam Ottavino R 25 5.28 5 8 21 20 104.0 115 61 13 55 70 75
Brandon Dickson R 26 5.28 8 12 29 25 150.0 181 88 15 66 85 75
Evan MacLane L 28 5.39 6 10 27 24 147.0 181 88 23 32 65 74
David Kopp R 25 5.54 5 9 21 20 100.7 121 62 10 51 49 72
Maikel Cleto R 22 5.86 3 6 18 17 73.7 87 48 9 44 39 68
Ryan Kulik L 25 6.14 5 11 28 20 111.3 139 76 15 59 46
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Jason Motte R 29 3.43 4 3 66 0 60.3 52 23 6 23 66 116
Kyle McClellan R 27 3.58 4 3 71 0 75.3 68 30 7 29 63 111
Trever Miller L 38 3.62 1 1 60 0 37.3 33 15 3 15 32 110
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Ryan Franklin R 38 3.73 5 3 60 0 62.7 60 26 6 19 44 107
Fernando Salas R 26 3.79 3 2 53 0 57.0 52 24 6 21 53 105
Eduardo Sanchez R 24 3.81 1 1 57 0 59.0 52 25 6 29 54 104
Dennys Reyes L 34 3.92 2 1 65 0 39.0 37 17 3 19 30 102
Mitchell Boggs R 27 4.10 3 3 68 0 74.7 73 34 6 35 56 97
Andrew Brown R 30 4.12 2 2 37 0 43.7 39 20 4 26 40 97
Josh Kinney R 32 4.40 3 3 45 0 45.0 45 22 5 21 34 91
Brian Tallet L 33 4.46 3 3 50 2 74.7 73 37 9 35 58 89
Adam Reifer R 25 4.93 3 4 50 0 45.7 48 25 4 27 33 81
Mike MacDougal R 34 5.08 2 3 48 0 51.3 55 29 4 34 34 78
Blake King R 24 5.12 3 4 53 0 63.3 53 36 6 71 66 78
Chuckie Fick R 25 5.16 4 5 31 10 83.7 97 48 10 32 44 77
Oneli Perez R 28 5.59 3 5 37 9 77.3 86 48 11 46 58 71
Francisco Samuel R 24 5.63 2 3 46 0 40.0 37 25 4 45 38 71
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+
Albert Pujols .310 .402 .570 2821 10485 1900 3251 717 23 653 1997 1578 1130 164 155
Colby Rasmus .253 .331 .426 2266 7452 1182 1887 392 34 277 854 865 1793 131 103
Lance Berkman .284 .393 .511 2201 7692 1294 2185 494 33 396 1413 1354 1500 108 135
Matt Holliday .299 .369 .493 2058 7894 1243 2357 514 40 314 1301 789 1315 165 124
Yadier Molina .268 .328 .354 1774 6034 475 1617 260 2 86 728 496 538 59 82
Pedro Feliz .250 .287 .404 1434 4691 529 1172 227 27 148 651 251 712 14 79
Skip Schumaker .279 .335 .368 1227 4016 560 1122 185 19 44 319 329 466 39 89
Jon Jay .276 .336 .392 1134 3851 538 1063 218 19 64 402 302 556 88 96
Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
Adam Wainwright 219 106 3 3.05 447 385 2650 2399 898 205 720 2292 133
Jeff Suppan 138 142 0 4.68 440 409 2501 2797 1301 331 856 1379 99
Chris Carpenter 180 114 0 3.75 425 407 2688 2648 1121 265 761 1999 115
Kyle Lohse 106 115 0 4.69 345 320 1869 2066 973 233 579 1169 92
Brad Penny 124 108 0 4.21 339 333 1974 2048 923 197 629 1347 101
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
Albert Pujols 1B 90% 8% 2% 1% 0% Frank Thomas Jeff Bagwell Albert Belle
Matt Holliday LF 53% 31% 10% 5% 1% Will Clark Bill White Magglio Ordonez
Lance Berkman RF 34% 31% 16% 11% 8% Tim Salmon Chili Davis Ryan Klesko
Colby Rasmus CF 35% 24% 24% 13% 4% Dale Murphy Jim Edmonds Lloyd Moseby
Allen Craig LF 6% 23% 23% 25% 23% Mark Quinn Wil Cordero Robert Bozied
Jon Jay RF 3% 13% 18% 27% 40% Ryan Sweeney Hal Morris Jeff Abbott
David Freese 3B 4% 12% 21% 29% 34% Wes Helms Brook Jacoby Mike Blowers
Nick Stavinoha RF 1% 4% 8% 21% 66% Glenn Wilson Shawn W00t3n Tim Costo
Daniel Descalso 2B 8% 12% 19% 29% 32% Greg Cypret Russ Adams Brendan Harris
Mark Hamilton 1B 1% 5% 11% 32% 51% Jerry Willard Joe Vitiello Joe Koshansky
Yadier Molina C 5% 22% 27% 30% 16% Jerry Grote Joe Azcue Bruce Benedict
Matt Carpenter 3B 2% 9% 20% 32% 38% Rance Mulliniks Ernest Riles Dick McAuliffe
Bryan Anderson C 8% 23% 26% 28% 15% Orlando Sanchez Angel Salome Greg O’Halloran
Skip Schumaker 2B 7% 8% 14% 26% 46% Jim Gantner Johnny Burnett Mark Loretta
Aaron Luna LF 2% 8% 12% 22% 56% Ty Griffin Jason Regan Kevin Romine
Randy Winn RF 3% 4% 6% 14% 73% So Taguchi Dave Philley Fred Schulte
Amaury Cazana LF 1% 3% 5% 13% 78% Walt Dropo Eddie Williams Brian Jordan
Tyler Greene SS 8% 14% 28% 29% 21% Brian Bixler J.J. Furmaniak Bo Hart
Andrew Brown 1B 0% 1% 2% 15% 82% Joe Vitiello Pat Adams Josh Bonifay
Daryl Jones CF 2% 5% 13% 27% 54% Herm Winningham Everett Graham Mike Neill
Thomas Pham CF 2% 5% 15% 29% 48% Tony Walker Cameron Maybin Xavier Paul
Adron Chambers CF 2% 3% 10% 23% 62% Nathan Haynes Herm Winningham Brett Gardner
Ryan Theriot SS 3% 6% 17% 29% 46% Jerry Remy David Eckstein Mike Bordick
Steve Hill C 1% 7% 15% 34% 43% John Buck Pat Borders Jack Fimple
Jason LaRue C 5% 12% 15% 27% 41% Raul Chavez Elston Howard Bob Boone
Tony Cruz C 1% 5% 10% 26% 57% Pat Cline Henry Blanco Damian Miller
Kevin Howard 3B 0% 2% 4% 11% 83% Kevin Baez Alex Prieto Johnny Burnett
Gerald Laird C 1% 5% 9% 24% 61% Dave Toth Rollie Hemsley Chad Moeller
James Rapoport CF 0% 0% 2% 11% 86% Evan Frey Keiunta Span Kennard Bibbs
Pete Kozma SS 2% 3% 10% 22% 63% Jeff Rutledge Shane Halter Adam Morrissey
Donovan Solano SS 0% 2% 8% 20% 69% Fidel Hernandez Jimmy Rohan Pedro Lopez
Pedro Feliz 3B 0% 1% 2% 6% 91% Vinny Castilla Ron Coomer Frank Bolling
Aaron Miles 2B 0% 0% 1% 4% 95% Jose Vizcaino Edgar Caceres Jerry Adair
Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3
Adam Wainwright SP 93% 5% 2% Brandon Webb Jose Rijo Greg Maddux
Chris Carpenter SP 73% 25% 2% Dennis Martinez Greg Maddux Jim Bunning
Jason Motte RP 40% 48% 12% Curt Leskanic Bill Caudill Kyle Farnsworth
Jaime Garcia SP 57% 38% 5% C.C. Sabathia Noah Lowry Danny Jackson
Kyle McClellan RP 28% 58% 15% Joe Boever Jon Rauch Vladimir Nunez
Trever Miller RP 33% 39% 28% Mark Guthrie Dennis Cook Jesse Orosco
Ryan Franklin RP 30% 46% 24% Dennis Lamp Ted Power Todd Jones
Fernando Salas RP 28% 47% 25% Pat Neshek Chuck Ricci Curt Kaufman
Eduardo Sanchez RP 18% 51% 31% Jeff Jones Bo Donaldson Ken Ryan
Dennys Reyes RP 21% 45% 34% Scott Schoeneweis Scott Eyre Trever Miller
Mitchell Boggs RP 10% 46% 45% Keith Shepherd Miguel Batista Mark Rutherford
Jake Westbrook SP 21% 51% 28% Dennis Martinez Brett Tomko Jim Clancy
Andrew Brown RP 15% 41% 45% Colter Bean Dick Radatz Derrick Turnbow
Bryan Augenstein SP 14% 51% 34% John Hope Chris Holt Ramiro Mendoza
Josh Kinney RP 8% 41% 51% Tom Hume Jason Childers Pete Walker
Brian Tallet RP 3% 29% 68% Wayne Franklin Ray Searage Joey Eischen
Brad Penny SP 11% 45% 44% Dave Eiland Jason Johnson Aaron Sele
Kyle Lohse SP 6% 39% 55% Dave Eiland Brian Lawrence Jason Johnson
Lance Lynn SP 2% 31% 67% Landon Jacobsen Joe Bitker J.D. Durbin
P.J. Walters SP 3% 31% 66% Todd Stottlemyre Roy Smith Andy Ashby
Adam Reifer RP 4% 24% 71% Alan Mills Anthony Chavez Marc Pisciotta
Mike MacDougal RP 5% 15% 80% David Lee Ernie Camacho Jerry Johnson
Blake King RP 1% 14% 85% Brad Voyles Billy Sadler Ted Langdon
Chuckie Fick RP 0% 11% 89% Brooks McNiven Matt Goodson Tim Kester
Jeff Suppan SP 3% 18% 79% Dennis Springer Kevin Jarvis Aaron Sele
Adam Ottavino SP 1% 14% 85% Doug Brocail Darryl Banks Wilton Chavez
Brandon Dickson SP 0% 13% 87% Bill Swift Matt Achilles Marcus Jones
Evan MacLane SP 1% 11% 88% Brian Shouse Randy Leek Chuck Stobbs
David Kopp SP 0% 8% 91% Rick Sutcliffe Matt Achilles Brian Moehler
Oneli Perez RP 0% 5% 95% Bo Hall Rosman Garcia Jonathan Johnson
Francisco Samuel RP 1% 8% 90% Ted Langdon Josh Banks Jeff Smith
Maikel Cleto SP 0% 7% 93% Adam Russell Carlos Paredes Chris Kinsey
Ryan Kulik SP 0% 1% 99% Joe Beimel Don Vesling Kurt Birkins
Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB
Miguel Tejada 11% 0% 3% 3% 0% 3% 2% 0%
Albert Pujols 65% 88% 92% 17% 0% 78% 86% 4%
Matt Holliday 44% 48% 38% 19% 0% 21% 29% 5%
Lance Berkman 9% 53% 16% 0% 0% 3% 19% 0%
Colby Rasmus 7% 12% 12% 1% 0% 8% 5% 3%
Allen Craig 18% 5% 5% 2% 0% 2% 2% 0%
Jon Jay 24% 8% 1% 3% 1% 0% 1% 5%
David Freese 9% 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Nick Stavinoha 15% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Daniel Descalso 8% 3% 0% 7% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Mark Hamilton 3% 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Yadier Molina 17% 9% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1%
Matt Carpenter 3% 11% 1% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Bryan Anderson 8% 3% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0%
Skip Schumaker 16% 6% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0%
Aaron Luna 0% 16% 1% 0% 5% 0% 1% 0%
Randy Winn 7% 3% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1%
Amaury Cazana 9% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Tyler Greene 1% 1% 1% 0% 9% 0% 0% 5%
Andrew Brown 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Daryl Jones 2% 3% 1% 0% 22% 0% 0% 1%
Thomas Pham 1% 3% 0% 0% 9% 0% 0% 2%
Adron Chambers 2% 4% 0% 0% 51% 0% 0% 1%
Ryan Theriot 10% 4% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 9%
Steve Hill 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jason LaRue 12% 8% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% NO
Tony Cruz 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Kevin Howard 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gerald Laird 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
James Rapoport 1% 1% 0% 0% 11% 0% 0% 0%
Pete Kozma 0% 0% 1% 1% 6% 1% 0% 1%
Donovan Solano 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pedro Feliz 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Aaron Miles 10% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1
Adam Wainwright 71% 97% 54% 28% 97%
Chris Carpenter 32% 90% 5% 28% 89%
Jason Motte 32% 78% 93% 2% 71%
Jaime Garcia 22% 79% 28% 0% 89%
Kyle McClellan 22% 76% 26% 1% 71%
Trever Miller 24% 63% 40% 4% 78%
Ryan Franklin 24% 64% 5% 18% 77%
Fernando Salas 21% 68% 60% 4% 59%
Eduardo Sanchez 18% 62% 55% 0% 77%
Dennys Reyes 21% 57% 16% 1% 78%
Mitchell Boggs 7% 48% 7% 0% 81%
Jake Westbrook 5% 40% 1% 3% 66%
Andrew Brown 10% 46% 51% 0% 82%
Bryan Augenstein 2% 33% 2% 11% 86%
Josh Kinney 8% 40% 15% 1% 66%
Brian Tallet 2% 26% 13% 0% 46%
Brad Penny 2% 25% 0% 7% 64%
Kyle Lohse 1% 17% 0% 5% 70%
Lance Lynn 0% 8% 0% 0% 60%
P.J. Walters 0% 10% 8% 0% 45%
Adam Reifer 3% 22% 6% 0% 75%
Mike MacDougal 4% 16% 6% 0% 81%
Blake King 1% 11% 87% 0% 80%
Chuckie Fick 0% 6% 0% 2% 43%
Jeff Suppan 1% 7% 0% 1% 44%
Adam Ottavino 0% 3% 1% 0% 50%
Brandon Dickson 0% 2% 0% 0% 76%
Evan MacLane 0% 2% 0% 63% 12%
David Kopp 0% 1% 0% 0% 66%
Oneli Perez 0% 2% 7% 0% 38%
Francisco Samuel 1% 7% 57% 0% 66%
Maikel Cleto 0% 1% 0% 0% 49%
Ryan Kulik 0% 0% 0% 0% 30%
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 20, 2010 at 05:57 PM | 40 comment(s)
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1. phredbirdThanks!
I have a bad feeling that, with the defense crippled and Marty Mason gone, Duncan isn't going to look so magical this season.
i can't identify the pitching candidate here ... jake westbrook? as for the other part of your comment, tony and co. haven't got that one right since mark grudzelienik (sp?) ...
i dunno, i'm still doing an eeyore here. carp has been healthy, but how long is that going to last? if albert plays to this projection, it will be another slightly off year. i know, i know, he came darn close to winning the MVP but it was not with his usual numbers. for the team to really put away the division, it seems like he needs to bury the competition. we can't keep expecting that from him. plus, management seems determined to mess up colby rasmus. brother, i'm really letting this get to me.
As ugly as it is, it's also significantly better than he hit in 2010 (46 OPS+).
Some Todd Wellemeyer NRI type that they'll sign to a minor league contract in January to little fanfare. Brandon Duckworth - 2011 NL All-Star!
I'll take the over on Westbrooks era+.
and that Gerald Laird projection is depressing.
(for some reason Miguel Tejada is on the list where they predict %chance of .300avg, etc.)
If you take his current totals and add in these 2011 projecitons, he will have 445 and 1337, respsectively. Leaving him 208 and 660 shy, as of his 32nd birthday (January 2012).
I think he'll do better.
13. I think they should, and he'll be given a chance to earn a job in spring training, although Theriot is the favorite, it seems like Greene is well liked by management so he doesn't have the Ryan impediment.
I would go into the spring training and think that Descalso and Greene have a chance to earn a starting job, if they don't impress then go to the fallbacks of Schumaker and Theriot, but in at least Greenes case you have a higher ceiling guy, and possibly a better fielder. Schumaker can have a bounce back year offensively, but without Ryan to the left, you really want at least average fielding from the secondbaseman.
No, they should play Tyler Green at SP and reap the Duncan rewards.
[Brandon Duckworth is ineligible as a former star of the hated Astros]
I've learned not to trust my eyes too much when it comes to defense, but it's really hard for me to buy that "Avg" ranking for Greene at SS. Visually, he looks like such a bad fielder as to be probably unplayable in the middle infield.
Also, Jaime Garcia's K/9 is expected to go from 7.27 to 7.51. This surprises me from how conservative the ZiPS estimates normally are.
ZiPS doesn't buy his age either.
And I'm calling MCarpenter the sleeper here, not necessarily for 2011, though.
Some joke I'm not getting? Your bbtf password?
career projecoitn for Albert: only 653 HR and 1997 RBI?
That does seem kinda low given ZiPS projects him to 12,000 PA (5,000 more than he's currently got). Now the chances of him getting to 12,000 PA are probably not huge but, if he does, that's 8 full seasons averaging "just" 26 HR and 80-85 RBI a year. I'd guess he'll have about 140-150 HR and 400-450 RBI over the next 2500 PA or so.
Thomas and Bagwell aren't automatic (though each will likely get in). But Pujols is a first ballot, near unanimous choice. Whats wrong,
(1) Thomas should be automatic and in EASILY. Better hitter (and slightly longer career) than McCovey or Stargell; just loses out to Robinson due to career length (and defensive value).*
(2) Through age 30, Thomas had 5500 PA, a 174 OPS+ and 2 MVPs with a line of 321/443/584. Pujols through age 30 has 5700 PA, a 172 OPS+, 3 MVPs and a line of 331/426/624. How much closer of a hitting(!) comp do you want?
(3) Let's hope Pujols has better health going forward than any of his top 3 comps.
*Bagwell should also be in easily but he didn't have a smooth decline -- didn't even make it to 10,000 PA despite great durability in his youth -- and so his career numbers (as a hitter) are squarely in the McCovey, Stargell, Thome, Edgar group, not pushing the Robinson group. So it wouldn't be fully inconsistent with history for the voters to make him wait a year or two.
is l337.
Also, is Ryan Theriot predicted to age rapidly, or what? For a player who has hit .287/.351/.347 over the last three seasons (albeit in generally higher-scoring environments), and really wasn't dreadful last year at .270/.321/.312, his 2011 projection does look pessimistic to me. But what do I know?
I'd like to complement you on your spelling. :-)
Although it's hard to gauge the defense.
In the case of the Cards, I'd say it's stationary.
Not so much, it's the park effect. His OPS+ the last 4 years are 71, 92, 83 and 70 ... or 79 overall. He's projected to a 76.
It's at 3.98 - I have St. Louis with an expected run factor of 92 (so reducing offense by 4% when road games are taken into account). I've switched over to using runs created park factors - it's more predictive than run park factors.
Moseby was a pretty good player, too, albeit for just a short time.
The Cardinals better hope their front-line starters (on both offense and defense) remain healthy, because if they don't it's going to be a long season.
-- MWE
The amusing comp, to me, was Holliday and Bill White. I can see where the computer is coming from, but they almost could not be less similar in terms of skills and physiques. White was black and thin and lefty. He ran very very fast - center field speed - but had absolutely no idea where a fly ball might end up, so he could only play first base. In his time, which was the 1960s, he was regarded as a homer hitting cleanup hitter. He was VERY streaky; I think he holds the obscure record for most hits in two consecutive doubleheaders. When he was on, he could carry the team, but when he was off, because he took few walks, he was a complete hole who needed the aging Stan Musial and Ken Boyer to keep the team offense going without him. He was widely regarded as the very best fighter in the game, so good that people twice his size and quite aggressive, like Don Drysdale, would just back off rather than fight Bill (yes, I saw this personally; Drysdale was about to flatten tiny Julian Javier after a close play at second, but all Bill had to do was come over from first and just tap Drysdale on the shoulder, and Don was right back in the dugout where he belonged).
Holliday is not a coward, but he's no enforcer. He's white and carries a little extra weight, and is a righty. He doesn't run that well, but has good judgment, which is why he can play the outfield at least decently. He's regarded as a doubles power hitter with some homer power. He's a pretty consistent player who always seems to get on base at least once a game, whether by hit or walk. Really not a similar athlete to Bill White, but as I said, the computer sees similarities that are certainly there, especially if you don't adjust for time period or ballpark.
White, of course, is also bright enough to be one of the first black upper management types. Holliday isn't dumb, but I doubt he's in White's class for pure brains.
A Brendan Ryan note. Kyle Lohse delivered a hilarious interview in the local paper, discussing Ryan. Lohse talked around and around the subject, but refused to get specific. He did, however, keep returning, over and over, to one word: unprofessional. I can't be sure in any detail what exactly that term means to Kyle Lohse, but TLR is apparently not the only one who wanted Ryan out of the clubhouse, and "unprofessional" seems to be the reason why, whatever it specifically means here.
- Brock Hanke
Maybe he got promoted by tapping a lot of shoulders.
I think you pretty much nailed it. They didn't need to sign Laird, and Craig would likely put up a similar stat line to Berkman. Greene should be starting at SS over Theriot. So pretty much all the Cards' moves (except signing Westbrook) seem to be very poor decisions. I have yet to be impressed with Mozeliak.
Seems like this is a team that should sign Jeff Francis to an incentive-laden deal.
Dan's going to get a lot of hate mail this morning.... ;-)
McClellan is now working in the starter program for the Cards in spring training. How would he project as a starting pitcher? and will he be included that way in the final version? Thanks
Looks like you kind of answered this in the Insider article and the comments in the thread here afterwards. Seems he may not be a realistic option.
Maybe they are serious about the starter thing after all because he is still working as a starter in spring training. Wait and see I guess.
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