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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, December 20, 2010

2011 ZiPS Projections - St. Louis Cardinals

2010 was kind of a disappointment for the Cardinals - the Reds had a lot go right - but 86 wins can hardly be called a major disaster.  St. Louis should be competitive in a wide-open Central division in which 3 teams are probably very close (STL, CIN, MIL) and the Cubs aren’t so hopeless that they can’t compete with a bit of luck.

People are probably tired of me ######## about the Cards offseason (written about it both on ESPN and Twitter extensively), but the short version is that the team didn’t really evaluate the roster very well.  Berkman can probably still hit, but sticking him in rightfield, a position he hasn’t played regularly in a long time and never all that well, seems to be a fool’s errand, especially on what looks to be one of the weakest defensive Cardinals teams that I can remember.  Ryan Theriot was a completely ridiculous idea - Ryan didn’t hit, but he at least showed Gold Glove defense and there’s no good reason to think Theriot’s a better player than Tyler Greene.  In fact, it’s pretty disturbing how small the gap between Theriot and Pete Kozma/Donovan Solano, players nobody thinks should be starting in the majors in 2011.  Essentially, Lance Berkman was a mediocre answer to a problem and Theriot a terrible answer to a made-up problem.

However, the team has good pitching and enough outfield stars that they should compete very well unless the injury bug hits the rotation (which is very possible given the DL stints of 4 of the 5 likely starters).

Next up:  Dodgers

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Albert Pujols     R    1B  31   .314 .419 .592 148 539 100 169  37   1  37 107  97  65  12   4  169
Matt Holliday     R    LF  31   .296 .376 .491 152 581  94 172  37   2  24  99  67 102  14   5  131
Lance Berkman     B    RF  35   .262 .379 .449 124 423  67 111  24   2  17  73  79  88   7   3  122
Colby Rasmus      L    CF  24   .262 .341 .443 153 503  84 132  27   2  20  61  60 131  12   6  110
Allen Craig       R    LF  26   .280 .333 .438 141 518  70 145  29   1  17  81  39 106   3   1  106
Jon Jay           L    RF  26   .284 .341 .403 152 529  75 150  30   3   9  57  40  77  15   7  100
David Freese      R    3B  28   .263 .325 .402  99 353  44  93  18   2   9  50  29  87   2   1   95
Nick Stavinoha    R    RF  29   .274 .309 .411 122 358  39  98  18   2   9  47  17  60   2   0   92
Daniel Descalso   L    2B  24   .268 .330 .394 146 559  85 150  33   5   9  71  47  71   7   5   94
Mark Hamilton     L    1B  26   .246 .322 .408  96 333  41  82  18   0  12  44  34  97   0   0   95
Yadier Molina     R    C   28   .277 .340 .366 135 465  37 129  20   0   7  58  41  44   6   3   90
Matt Carpenter    L    3B  25   .257 .343 .364 126 483  64 124  24   5   6  46  60 110   6   2   91
Bryan Anderson    L    C   24   .261 .319 .387 101 326  38  85  16   2   7  35  26  68   1   0   89
Skip Schumaker    L    2B  31   .276 .333 .365 147 504  70 139  23   2   6  41  42  62   5   3   88
Aaron Luna        R    LF  24   .223 .347 .365 124 394  54  88  16   5  10  44  52 103   6   2   92
Randy Winn        B    RF  37   .258 .315 .360 123 364  46  94  19   3   4  41  32  61  12   1   82
Amaury Cazana     R    LF  36   .259 .299 .401  74 247  26  64   8   0   9  38  14  53   0   0   87
Tyler Greene      R    SS  27   .238 .301 .373 131 466  69 111  20   5  11  39  35 132  18   5   81
Andrew Brown      R    1B  26   .239 .309 .377 108 401  45  96  17   1  12  45  36 122   1   1   84
Daryl Jones       L    CF  24   .248 .325 .353 128 479  58 119  18   7   6  42  46 117  14   8   83
Thomas Pham       R    CF  23   .234 .319 .360 131 431  61 101  23   5   7  46  51 124  16   9   83
Adron Chambers    L    CF  24   .245 .323 .350 132 440  66 108  14  10   4  37  40 103  14   9   82
Ryan Theriot      R    SS  31   .269 .327 .324 149 581  74 156  17   3   3  38  48  70  19   9   76
Steve Hill        R    C   26   .239 .288 .382 106 419  41 100  20   2  12  52  27 117   1   1   79
Jason LaRue       R    C   37   .239 .309 .352  39  88   8  21   4   0   2   8   6  14   0   0   78
Tony Cruz         R    C   24   .241 .293 .364 112 431  45 104  25   2   8  49  32  91   1   1   76
Kevin Howard      L    3B  30   .249 .299 .352 102 338  36  84  15   1   6  33  24  48   3   2   75
Gerald Laird      R    C   31   .240 .302 .342 107 342  38  82  18   1   5  33  26  64   4   2   73
James Rapoport    L    CF  26   .250 .314 .317 130 496  64 124  15   6   2  42  45  89  13   6   71
Pete Kozma        R    SS  23   .236 .294 .336 154 592  65 140  27   4   8  62  49 136  10   2   70
Donovan Solano    R    SS  23   .259 .295 .327 135 459  54 119  18   2   3  36  20  59   4   1   67
Pedro Feliz       R    3B  36   .245 .279 .350 132 437  42 107  18   2   8  53  21  49   1   1   68
Aaron Miles       B    2B  34   .263 .300 .320 105 266  30  70  10   1   1  23  14  31   2   2   67

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Albert Pujols                 AV/85
Matt Holliday                                                 AV/88
Lance Berkman                 AV/74                                           PO/99
Colby Rasmus                                                 VG/144  AV/169  VG/144
Allen Craig                  AV/106          FR/129          AV/123          FR/123
Jon Jay                                                       VG/76   AV/36   AV/92
David Freese                 AV/110           AV/98
Nick Stavinoha               AV/131                           FR/92          FR/115
Daniel Descalso              AV/121  AV/137  AV/115  PO/137
Mark Hamilton                 FR/84                          FR/112
Yadier Molina            EX  FR/114
Matt Carpenter                                FR/66
Bryan Anderson           AV
Skip Schumaker                       FR/131                  AV/114   FR/96  FR/106
Aaron Luna                           PO/141                  AV/111          AV/120
Randy Winn                                                    AV/70   PO/98   AV/58
Amaury Cazana                                                FR/110          PO/127
Tyler Greene                         AV/128  AV/116  AV/122
Andrew Brown                 AV/218          FR/116          FR/107          AV/129
Daryl Jones                                                  AV/157  AV/184  AV/112
Thomas Pham                                                  AV/178  FR/147  AV/111
Adron Chambers                                               AV/110  AV/245  AV/158
Ryan Theriot                          AV/94           FR/90
Steve Hill               AV  FR/177                          FR/180          FR/180
Jason LaRue              VG
Tony Cruz                VG  AV/117          FR/132
Kevin Howard                 FR/116  FR/153  FR/151  PO/156
Gerald Laird             VG
James Rapoport                                                       AV/177  VG/114
Pete Kozma                                           AV/139
Donovan Solano                       VG/113   AV/88  FR/126
Pedro Feliz                  AV/141           AV/79
Aaron Miles                           AV/92  FR/123  PO/112  FR/114

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Adam Wainwright   R     29    2.85    19    7   32   32  214.7  188   68   15   55  194  140
Chris Carpenter   R     36    3.33    11    6   25   25  162.3  151   60   13   42  118  120
Jaime Garcia      L     24    3.53     9    6   21   21  117.3  108   46    9   47   98  113
Jake Westbrook    R     32    4.11     6    5   17   17  103.0  102   47   10   36   65   97
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Bryan Augenstein  R     24    4.35     7    8   26   21  124.0  136   60   11   37   82   91
Brad Penny        R     33    4.50     6    6   17   16   96.0  103   48   10   30   58   89
Kyle Lohse        R     32    4.62     7    8   22   22  122.7  135   63   13   40   76   86
Lance Lynn        R     24    4.87     9   12   30   29  157.0  167   85   18   75  106   82
P.J. Walters      R     26    4.90     7    9   28   24  139.7  149   76   17   59  107   81
Jeff Suppan       R     36    5.17     6    9   29   23  134.0  156   77   17   54   66   77
Adam Ottavino     R     25    5.28     5    8   21   20  104.0  115   61   13   55   70   75
Brandon Dickson   R     26    5.28     8   12   29   25  150.0  181   88   15   66   85   75
Evan MacLane      L     28    5.39     6   10   27   24  147.0  181   88   23   32   65   74
David Kopp        R     25    5.54     5    9   21   20  100.7  121   62   10   51   49   72
Maikel Cleto      R     22    5.86     3    6   18   17   73.7   87   48    9   44   39   68
Ryan Kulik        L     25    6.14     5   11   28   20  111.3  139   76   15   59   46  

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Jason Motte       R     29    3.43     4    3   66    0   60.3   52   23    6   23   66  116
Kyle McClellan    R     27    3.58     4    3   71    0   75.3   68   30    7   29   63  111
Trever Miller     L     38    3.62     1    1   60    0   37.3   33   15    3   15   32  110
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Ryan Franklin     R     38    3.73     5    3   60    0   62.7   60   26    6   19   44  107
Fernando Salas    R     26    3.79     3    2   53    0   57.0   52   24    6   21   53  105
Eduardo Sanchez   R     24    3.81     1    1   57    0   59.0   52   25    6   29   54  104
Dennys Reyes      L     34    3.92     2    1   65    0   39.0   37   17    3   19   30  102
Mitchell Boggs    R     27    4.10     3    3   68    0   74.7   73   34    6   35   56   97
Andrew Brown      R     30    4.12     2    2   37    0   43.7   39   20    4   26   40   97
Josh Kinney       R     32    4.40     3    3   45    0   45.0   45   22    5   21   34   91
Brian Tallet      L     33    4.46     3    3   50    2   74.7   73   37    9   35   58   89
Adam Reifer       R     25    4.93     3    4   50    0   45.7   48   25    4   27   33   81
Mike MacDougal    R     34    5.08     2    3   48    0   51.3   55   29    4   34   34   78
Blake King        R     24    5.12     3    4   53    0   63.3   53   36    6   71   66   78
Chuckie Fick      R     25    5.16     4    5   31   10   83.7   97   48   10   32   44   77
Oneli Perez       R     28    5.59     3    5   37    9   77.3   86   48   11   46   58   71
Francisco Samuel  R     24    5.63     2    3   46    0   40.0   37   25    4   45   38   71

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Albert Pujols       .310  .402  .570  2821 10485  1900  3251   717    23   653  1997  1578  1130   164   155
Colby Rasmus        .253  .331  .426  2266  7452  1182  1887   392    34   277   854   865  1793   131   103
Lance Berkman       .284  .393  .511  2201  7692  1294  2185   494    33   396  1413  1354  1500   108   135
Matt Holliday       .299  .369  .493  2058  7894  1243  2357   514    40   314  1301   789  1315   165   124
Yadier Molina       .268  .328  .354  1774  6034   475  1617   260     2    86   728   496   538    59    82
Pedro Feliz         .250  .287  .404  1434  4691   529  1172   227    27   148   651   251   712    14    79
Skip Schumaker      .279  .335  .368  1227  4016   560  1122   185    19    44   319   329   466    39    89
Jon Jay             .276  .336  .392  1134  3851   538  1063   218    19    64   402   302   556    88    96

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Adam Wainwright    219  106    3    3.05  447  385     2650 2399  898  205  720 2292    133
Jeff Suppan        138  142    0    4.68  440  409     2501 2797 1301  331  856 1379     99
Chris Carpenter    180  114    0    3.75  425  407     2688 2648 1121  265  761 1999    115
Kyle Lohse         106  115    0    4.69  345  320     1869 2066  973  233  579 1169     92
Brad Penny         124  108    0    4.21  339  333     1974 2048  923  197  629 1347    101

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Albert Pujols     1B    90%   8%   2%   1%   0%       Frank Thomas       Jeff Bagwell       Albert Belle
Matt Holliday     LF    53%  31%  10%   5%   1%         Will Clark         Bill White    Magglio Ordonez
Lance Berkman     RF    34%  31%  16%  11%   8%         Tim Salmon        Chili Davis        Ryan Klesko
Colby Rasmus      CF    35%  24%  24%  13%   4%        Dale Murphy        Jim Edmonds       Lloyd Moseby
Allen Craig       LF     6%  23%  23%  25%  23%         Mark Quinn        Wil Cordero      Robert Bozied
Jon Jay           RF     3%  13%  18%  27%  40%       Ryan Sweeney         Hal Morris        Jeff Abbott
David Freese      3B     4%  12%  21%  29%  34%          Wes Helms       Brook Jacoby       Mike Blowers
Nick Stavinoha    RF     1%   4%   8%  21%  66%       Glenn Wilson       Shawn W00t3n          Tim Costo
Daniel Descalso   2B     8%  12%  19%  29%  32%        Greg Cypret         Russ Adams     Brendan Harris
Mark Hamilton     1B     1%   5%  11%  32%  51%      Jerry Willard       Joe Vitiello      Joe Koshansky
Yadier Molina     C      5%  22%  27%  30%  16%        Jerry Grote          Joe Azcue     Bruce Benedict
Matt Carpenter    3B     2%   9%  20%  32%  38%    Rance Mulliniks       Ernest Riles     Dick McAuliffe
Bryan Anderson    C      8%  23%  26%  28%  15%    Orlando Sanchez       Angel Salome    Greg O’Halloran
Skip Schumaker    2B     7%   8%  14%  26%  46%        Jim Gantner     Johnny Burnett       Mark Loretta
Aaron Luna        LF     2%   8%  12%  22%  56%         Ty Griffin        Jason Regan       Kevin Romine
Randy Winn        RF     3%   4%   6%  14%  73%         So Taguchi       Dave Philley       Fred Schulte
Amaury Cazana     LF     1%   3%   5%  13%  78%         Walt Dropo     Eddie Williams       Brian Jordan
Tyler Greene      SS     8%  14%  28%  29%  21%       Brian Bixler     J.J. Furmaniak            Bo Hart
Andrew Brown      1B     0%   1%   2%  15%  82%       Joe Vitiello          Pat Adams       Josh Bonifay
Daryl Jones       CF     2%   5%  13%  27%  54%    Herm Winningham     Everett Graham         Mike Neill
Thomas Pham       CF     2%   5%  15%  29%  48%        Tony Walker     Cameron Maybin        Xavier Paul
Adron Chambers    CF     2%   3%  10%  23%  62%      Nathan Haynes    Herm Winningham      Brett Gardner
Ryan Theriot      SS     3%   6%  17%  29%  46%         Jerry Remy     David Eckstein       Mike Bordick
Steve Hill        C      1%   7%  15%  34%  43%          John Buck        Pat Borders        Jack Fimple
Jason LaRue       C      5%  12%  15%  27%  41%        Raul Chavez      Elston Howard          Bob Boone
Tony Cruz         C      1%   5%  10%  26%  57%          Pat Cline       Henry Blanco      Damian Miller
Kevin Howard      3B     0%   2%   4%  11%  83%         Kevin Baez        Alex Prieto     Johnny Burnett
Gerald Laird      C      1%   5%   9%  24%  61%          Dave Toth     Rollie Hemsley       Chad Moeller
James Rapoport    CF     0%   0%   2%  11%  86%          Evan Frey       Keiunta Span      Kennard Bibbs
Pete Kozma        SS     2%   3%  10%  22%  63%      Jeff Rutledge       Shane Halter     Adam Morrissey
Donovan Solano    SS     0%   2%   8%  20%  69%    Fidel Hernandez        Jimmy Rohan        Pedro Lopez
Pedro Feliz       3B     0%   1%   2%   6%  91%     Vinny Castilla         Ron Coomer      Frank Bolling
Aaron Miles       2B     0%   0%   1%   4%  95%      Jose Vizcaino      Edgar Caceres        Jerry Adair

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Adam Wainwright   SP     93%    5%    2%       Brandon Webb          Jose Rijo        Greg Maddux
Chris Carpenter   SP     73%   25%    2%    Dennis Martinez        Greg Maddux        Jim Bunning
Jason Motte       RP     40%   48%   12%      Curt Leskanic       Bill Caudill    Kyle Farnsworth
Jaime Garcia      SP     57%   38%    5%      C.C. Sabathia         Noah Lowry      Danny Jackson
Kyle McClellan    RP     28%   58%   15%         Joe Boever          Jon Rauch     Vladimir Nunez
Trever Miller     RP     33%   39%   28%       Mark Guthrie        Dennis Cook       Jesse Orosco
Ryan Franklin     RP     30%   46%   24%        Dennis Lamp          Ted Power         Todd Jones
Fernando Salas    RP     28%   47%   25%         Pat Neshek        Chuck Ricci       Curt Kaufman
Eduardo Sanchez   RP     18%   51%   31%         Jeff Jones       Bo Donaldson           Ken Ryan
Dennys Reyes      RP     21%   45%   34%  Scott Schoeneweis         Scott Eyre      Trever Miller
Mitchell Boggs    RP     10%   46%   45%     Keith Shepherd     Miguel Batista    Mark Rutherford
Jake Westbrook    SP     21%   51%   28%    Dennis Martinez        Brett Tomko         Jim Clancy
Andrew Brown      RP     15%   41%   45%        Colter Bean        Dick Radatz    Derrick Turnbow
Bryan Augenstein  SP     14%   51%   34%          John Hope         Chris Holt     Ramiro Mendoza
Josh Kinney       RP      8%   41%   51%           Tom Hume     Jason Childers        Pete Walker
Brian Tallet      RP      3%   29%   68%     Wayne Franklin        Ray Searage       Joey Eischen
Brad Penny        SP     11%   45%   44%        Dave Eiland      Jason Johnson         Aaron Sele
Kyle Lohse        SP      6%   39%   55%        Dave Eiland     Brian Lawrence      Jason Johnson
Lance Lynn        SP      2%   31%   67%    Landon Jacobsen         Joe Bitker        J.D. Durbin
P.J. Walters      SP      3%   31%   66%   Todd Stottlemyre          Roy Smith         Andy Ashby
Adam Reifer       RP      4%   24%   71%         Alan Mills     Anthony Chavez     Marc Pisciotta
Mike MacDougal    RP      5%   15%   80%          David Lee      Ernie Camacho      Jerry Johnson
Blake King        RP      1%   14%   85%        Brad Voyles       Billy Sadler        Ted Langdon
Chuckie Fick      RP      0%   11%   89%     Brooks McNiven       Matt Goodson         Tim Kester
Jeff Suppan       SP      3%   18%   79%    Dennis Springer       Kevin Jarvis         Aaron Sele
Adam Ottavino     SP      1%   14%   85%       Doug Brocail       Darryl Banks      Wilton Chavez
Brandon Dickson   SP      0%   13%   87%         Bill Swift      Matt Achilles       Marcus Jones
Evan MacLane      SP      1%   11%   88%       Brian Shouse         Randy Leek       Chuck Stobbs
David Kopp        SP      0%    8%   91%     Rick Sutcliffe      Matt Achilles      Brian Moehler
Oneli Perez       RP      0%    5%   95%            Bo Hall      Rosman Garcia   Jonathan Johnson
Francisco Samuel  RP      1%    8%   90%        Ted Langdon         Josh Banks         Jeff Smith
Maikel Cleto      SP      0%    7%   93%       Adam Russell     Carlos Paredes       Chris Kinsey
Ryan Kulik        SP      0%    1%   99%         Joe Beimel        Don Vesling       Kurt Birkins

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Miguel Tejada           11%       0%       3%       3%       0%       3%       2%       0%
Albert Pujols           65%      88%      92%      17%       0%      78%      86%       4%
Matt Holliday           44%      48%      38%      19%       0%      21%      29%       5%
Lance Berkman            9%      53%      16%       0%       0%       3%      19%       0%
Colby Rasmus             7%      12%      12%       1%       0%       8%       5%       3%
Allen Craig             18%       5%       5%       2%       0%       2%       2%       0%
Jon Jay                 24%       8%       1%       3%       1%       0%       1%       5%
David Freese             9%       4%       3%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Nick Stavinoha          15%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Daniel Descalso          8%       3%       0%       7%       6%       0%       0%       0%
Mark Hamilton            3%       4%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Yadier Molina           17%       9%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       1%
Matt Carpenter           3%      11%       1%       0%       6%       0%       0%       0%
Bryan Anderson           8%       3%       2%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Skip Schumaker          16%       6%       1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Aaron Luna               0%      16%       1%       0%       5%       0%       1%       0%
Randy Winn               7%       3%       1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       1%
Amaury Cazana            9%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Tyler Greene             1%       1%       1%       0%       9%       0%       0%       5%
Andrew Brown             1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Daryl Jones              2%       3%       1%       0%      22%       0%       0%       1%
Thomas Pham              1%       3%       0%       0%       9%       0%       0%       2%
Adron Chambers           2%       4%       0%       0%      51%       0%       0%       1%
Ryan Theriot            10%       4%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       9%
Steve Hill               1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jason LaRue             12%       8%       3%       0%       0%       0%       1%       NO
Tony Cruz                1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Kevin Howard             3%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Gerald Laird             1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
James Rapoport           1%       1%       0%       0%      11%       0%       0%       0%
Pete Kozma               0%       0%       1%       1%       6%       1%       0%       1%
Donovan Solano           4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Pedro Feliz              2%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Aaron Miles             10%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Adam Wainwright           71%        97%        54%        28%        97%
Chris Carpenter           32%        90%         5%        28%        89%
Jason Motte               32%        78%        93%         2%        71%
Jaime Garcia              22%        79%        28%         0%        89%
Kyle McClellan            22%        76%        26%         1%        71%
Trever Miller             24%        63%        40%         4%        78%
Ryan Franklin             24%        64%         5%        18%        77%
Fernando Salas            21%        68%        60%         4%        59%
Eduardo Sanchez           18%        62%        55%         0%        77%
Dennys Reyes              21%        57%        16%         1%        78%
Mitchell Boggs             7%        48%         7%         0%        81%
Jake Westbrook             5%        40%         1%         3%        66%
Andrew Brown              10%        46%        51%         0%        82%
Bryan Augenstein           2%        33%         2%        11%        86%
Josh Kinney                8%        40%        15%         1%        66%
Brian Tallet               2%        26%        13%         0%        46%
Brad Penny                 2%        25%         0%         7%        64%
Kyle Lohse                 1%        17%         0%         5%        70%
Lance Lynn                 0%         8%         0%         0%        60%
P.J. Walters               0%        10%         8%         0%        45%
Adam Reifer                3%        22%         6%         0%        75%
Mike MacDougal             4%        16%         6%         0%        81%
Blake King                 1%        11%        87%         0%        80%
Chuckie Fick               0%         6%         0%         2%        43%
Jeff Suppan                1%         7%         0%         1%        44%
Adam Ottavino              0%         3%         1%         0%        50%
Brandon Dickson            0%         2%         0%         0%        76%
Evan MacLane               0%         2%         0%        63%        12%
David Kopp                 0%         1%         0%         0%        66%
Oneli Perez                0%         2%         7%         0%        38%
Francisco Samuel           1%         7%        57%         0%        66%
Maikel Cleto               0%         1%         0%         0%        49%
Ryan Kulik                 0%         0%         0%         0%        30%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Kansas City Royals
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles
Colorado Rockies
Atlanta Braves
Houston Astros

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 20, 2010 at 05:57 PM | 40 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. phredbird Posted: December 20, 2010 at 06:50 PM (#3714667)
the only solace i'm taking from this is that the percentages favor a regression by the reds. the cards moves over the off season have been pretty discouraging. meanwhile, milwaukee has acquired zack greinke, so now we've got that to worry about. somebody talk me off the ledge here.
   2. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: December 20, 2010 at 06:54 PM (#3714673)
Any chance to get a projection for Casey Mulligan (who got one last year)? Between hi-A and AA, he put up a 2.45 ERA, with a 70 strikeouts to 19 walks ratio in 47.2 innings, and just one homer. He would seem to be lining himself up for a possible late season bullpen tester next year, I would think.

Thanks!
   3. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 20, 2010 at 06:55 PM (#3714674)
They seem to sprinkle magical Duncan dust on some pitcher who outperforms his ZIPS by leaps and bounds, in addition to some gritty white guy out-performing ZIPS by quite a bit and voila they do better than I thought they would. The Reds won the division and the Brewers made the biggest moves this winter, but the Cards still have Pujols, Holliday, Carp and Wainwright and are still the team to be beat in my mind.
   4. DCW3 Posted: December 20, 2010 at 07:06 PM (#3714689)
They seem to sprinkle magical Duncan dust on some pitcher who outperforms his ZIPS by leaps and bounds, in addition to some gritty white guy out-performing ZIPS by quite a bit and voila they do better than I thought they would.

I have a bad feeling that, with the defense crippled and Marty Mason gone, Duncan isn't going to look so magical this season.
   5. cmack7 Posted: December 20, 2010 at 07:09 PM (#3714696)
There's a lot to like here. If TLR wasn't intent on sabotoging his own chances with his decisions at the Cards' marginal positions, this team would be the division favourite. As it stands, I think they're a shade behind Cincy and the Brewers
   6. alkeiper Posted: December 20, 2010 at 07:10 PM (#3714699)
That's an ugly, ugly projection for Pedro Feliz.
   7. phredbird Posted: December 20, 2010 at 07:13 PM (#3714705)
They seem to sprinkle magical Duncan dust on some pitcher who outperforms his ZIPS by leaps and bounds, in addition to some gritty white guy out-performing ZIPS by quite a bit and voila they do better than I thought they would.


i can't identify the pitching candidate here ... jake westbrook? as for the other part of your comment, tony and co. haven't got that one right since mark grudzelienik (sp?) ...

i dunno, i'm still doing an eeyore here. carp has been healthy, but how long is that going to last? if albert plays to this projection, it will be another slightly off year. i know, i know, he came darn close to winning the MVP but it was not with his usual numbers. for the team to really put away the division, it seems like he needs to bury the competition. we can't keep expecting that from him. plus, management seems determined to mess up colby rasmus. brother, i'm really letting this get to me.
   8. RJ in TO Posted: December 20, 2010 at 07:15 PM (#3714707)
That's an ugly, ugly projection for Pedro Feliz

As ugly as it is, it's also significantly better than he hit in 2010 (46 OPS+).
   9. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 20, 2010 at 07:29 PM (#3714725)

i can't identify the pitching candidate here ... jake westbrook?


Some Todd Wellemeyer NRI type that they'll sign to a minor league contract in January to little fanfare. Brandon Duckworth - 2011 NL All-Star!
   10. cardsfanboy Posted: December 20, 2010 at 07:29 PM (#3714726)
I'll take the over on Colby's ops+.
I'll take the over on Westbrooks era+.
and that Gerald Laird projection is depressing.

(for some reason Miguel Tejada is on the list where they predict %chance of .300avg, etc.)
   11. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 20, 2010 at 07:38 PM (#3714732)
Oops, copied and pasted from the SF line above the STL line (Tejada's the most recent SF projection I've done).
   12. cardsfanboy Posted: December 20, 2010 at 07:44 PM (#3714737)
Now if these projections for the kids could be taken seriously, then I want Descalso as the starting second baseman, Greene at short, and Theriot as the rover. Schumaker is the fifth outfielder, primary backup centerielder. Anderson backup catcher. I like Craig as the primary backup outfielder, but defensively Jay is better.
   13. Willie Mayspedes Posted: December 20, 2010 at 07:58 PM (#3714752)
So should they play Tyler Greene at SS or what?
   14. TomH Posted: December 20, 2010 at 08:03 PM (#3714757)
career projecoitn for Albert: only 653 HR and 1997 RBI?

If you take his current totals and add in these 2011 projecitons, he will have 445 and 1337, respsectively. Leaving him 208 and 660 shy, as of his 32nd birthday (January 2012).

I think he'll do better.
   15. cardsfanboy Posted: December 20, 2010 at 08:15 PM (#3714764)
No Shelby Miller? not that I think he's ready or anything, was just hoping to see some numbers :(

13. I think they should, and he'll be given a chance to earn a job in spring training, although Theriot is the favorite, it seems like Greene is well liked by management so he doesn't have the Ryan impediment.

I would go into the spring training and think that Descalso and Greene have a chance to earn a starting job, if they don't impress then go to the fallbacks of Schumaker and Theriot, but in at least Greenes case you have a higher ceiling guy, and possibly a better fielder. Schumaker can have a bounce back year offensively, but without Ryan to the left, you really want at least average fielding from the secondbaseman.
   16. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 20, 2010 at 08:28 PM (#3714774)
So should they play Tyler Greene at SS or what?

No, they should play Tyler Green at SP and reap the Duncan rewards.

[Brandon Duckworth is ineligible as a former star of the hated Astros]
   17. DCW3 Posted: December 20, 2010 at 08:51 PM (#3714795)
So should they play Tyler Greene at SS or what?

I've learned not to trust my eyes too much when it comes to defense, but it's really hard for me to buy that "Avg" ranking for Greene at SS. Visually, he looks like such a bad fielder as to be probably unplayable in the middle infield.
   18. Dale H. Posted: December 20, 2010 at 09:08 PM (#3714813)
I'm a little surprised that in those "chances of stuff happening" that Pujols doesn't have a bunch of 100 percents out there. Or at least in the high nineties.

Also, Jaime Garcia's K/9 is expected to go from 7.27 to 7.51. This surprises me from how conservative the ZiPS estimates normally are.
   19. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: December 20, 2010 at 09:11 PM (#3714817)
career projecoitn for Albert: only 653 HR and 1997 RBI?

If you take his current totals and add in these 2011 projecitons, he will have 445 and 1337, respsectively. Leaving him 208 and 660 shy, as of his 32nd birthday (January 2012).

I think he'll do better.


ZiPS doesn't buy his age either.
   20. 3744nsheffield Posted: December 21, 2010 at 12:04 AM (#3714991)
Those are odd comps for Pujols. Belle isn't going into the Hall of Fame, and Thomas and Bagwell aren't automatic (though each will likely get in). But Pujols is a first ballot, near unanimous choice. Whats wrong, ZiPS doesn't know who Lou Gehrig is?
   21. Dan Posted: December 21, 2010 at 12:23 AM (#3715011)
I thought that the Cardinals announced they were going to play Holliday in RF with Berkman in LF. Am I misremembering?
   22. esseff Posted: December 21, 2010 at 12:29 AM (#3715015)
I think that's right, Dan.

And I'm calling MCarpenter the sleeper here, not necessarily for 2011, though.
   23. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 21, 2010 at 01:01 AM (#3715035)
Jim Bowden had reported that LaRussa told him that Berkman was going to play right. It can change before Opening Day, of course.
   24. Forsch 10 From Navarone (Dayn) Posted: December 21, 2010 at 01:23 AM (#3715054)
Every day I wake up and hate the Theriot trade a little more.
   25. Walt Davis Posted: December 21, 2010 at 01:38 AM (#3715066)
Shawn W00t3n

Some joke I'm not getting? Your bbtf password?

career projecoitn for Albert: only 653 HR and 1997 RBI?

That does seem kinda low given ZiPS projects him to 12,000 PA (5,000 more than he's currently got). Now the chances of him getting to 12,000 PA are probably not huge but, if he does, that's 8 full seasons averaging "just" 26 HR and 80-85 RBI a year. I'd guess he'll have about 140-150 HR and 400-450 RBI over the next 2500 PA or so.

Thomas and Bagwell aren't automatic (though each will likely get in). But Pujols is a first ballot, near unanimous choice. Whats wrong,

(1) Thomas should be automatic and in EASILY. Better hitter (and slightly longer career) than McCovey or Stargell; just loses out to Robinson due to career length (and defensive value).*

(2) Through age 30, Thomas had 5500 PA, a 174 OPS+ and 2 MVPs with a line of 321/443/584. Pujols through age 30 has 5700 PA, a 172 OPS+, 3 MVPs and a line of 331/426/624. How much closer of a hitting(!) comp do you want?

(3) Let's hope Pujols has better health going forward than any of his top 3 comps.

*Bagwell should also be in easily but he didn't have a smooth decline -- didn't even make it to 10,000 PA despite great durability in his youth -- and so his career numbers (as a hitter) are squarely in the McCovey, Stargell, Thome, Edgar group, not pushing the Robinson group. So it wouldn't be fully inconsistent with history for the voters to make him wait a year or two.
   26. zenbitz Posted: December 21, 2010 at 02:16 AM (#3715089)
Both Brewers and Reds look better on Zips stationary than the Cards. Although it's hard to gauge the defense.

Shawn W00t3n


is l337.
   27. Austin Posted: December 21, 2010 at 07:04 AM (#3715211)
I had never realized just to what extent Busch Stadium plays as a pitcher's park - a 4.01 ERA looks to equate to a 100 ERA+, which seems pretty extreme, if not PETCO-esque.

Also, is Ryan Theriot predicted to age rapidly, or what? For a player who has hit .287/.351/.347 over the last three seasons (albeit in generally higher-scoring environments), and really wasn't dreadful last year at .270/.321/.312, his 2011 projection does look pessimistic to me. But what do I know?
   28. Walt Davis Posted: December 21, 2010 at 07:06 AM (#3715214)
Both Brewers and Reds look better on Zips stationary than the Cards.

I'd like to complement you on your spelling. :-)

Although it's hard to gauge the defense.

In the case of the Cards, I'd say it's stationary.
   29. Walt Davis Posted: December 21, 2010 at 11:35 AM (#3715242)
Also, is Ryan Theriot predicted to age rapidly, or what?

Not so much, it's the park effect. His OPS+ the last 4 years are 71, 92, 83 and 70 ... or 79 overall. He's projected to a 76.
   30. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 21, 2010 at 01:41 PM (#3715259)
I had never realized just to what extent Busch Stadium plays as a pitcher's park - a 4.01 ERA looks to equate to a 100 ERA+, which seems pretty extreme, if not PETCO-esque.

It's at 3.98 - I have St. Louis with an expected run factor of 92 (so reducing offense by 4% when road games are taken into account). I've switched over to using runs created park factors - it's more predictive than run park factors.
   31. Shoebo Posted: December 21, 2010 at 04:06 PM (#3715320)
Rasmus top two comps are extremely impressive.
   32. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 23, 2010 at 03:33 PM (#3716624)
Rasmus top two comps are extremely impressive.


Moseby was a pretty good player, too, albeit for just a short time.

The Cardinals better hope their front-line starters (on both offense and defense) remain healthy, because if they don't it's going to be a long season.

-- MWE
   33. bjhanke Posted: December 25, 2010 at 02:02 AM (#3717602)
Rasmus' comps look good because people forget how young Colby is. His age is also why he ain't going nowhere in no trade. The Cards would very much like to have him when his peak starts to resemble those of his comps.

The amusing comp, to me, was Holliday and Bill White. I can see where the computer is coming from, but they almost could not be less similar in terms of skills and physiques. White was black and thin and lefty. He ran very very fast - center field speed - but had absolutely no idea where a fly ball might end up, so he could only play first base. In his time, which was the 1960s, he was regarded as a homer hitting cleanup hitter. He was VERY streaky; I think he holds the obscure record for most hits in two consecutive doubleheaders. When he was on, he could carry the team, but when he was off, because he took few walks, he was a complete hole who needed the aging Stan Musial and Ken Boyer to keep the team offense going without him. He was widely regarded as the very best fighter in the game, so good that people twice his size and quite aggressive, like Don Drysdale, would just back off rather than fight Bill (yes, I saw this personally; Drysdale was about to flatten tiny Julian Javier after a close play at second, but all Bill had to do was come over from first and just tap Drysdale on the shoulder, and Don was right back in the dugout where he belonged).

Holliday is not a coward, but he's no enforcer. He's white and carries a little extra weight, and is a righty. He doesn't run that well, but has good judgment, which is why he can play the outfield at least decently. He's regarded as a doubles power hitter with some homer power. He's a pretty consistent player who always seems to get on base at least once a game, whether by hit or walk. Really not a similar athlete to Bill White, but as I said, the computer sees similarities that are certainly there, especially if you don't adjust for time period or ballpark.

White, of course, is also bright enough to be one of the first black upper management types. Holliday isn't dumb, but I doubt he's in White's class for pure brains.

A Brendan Ryan note. Kyle Lohse delivered a hilarious interview in the local paper, discussing Ryan. Lohse talked around and around the subject, but refused to get specific. He did, however, keep returning, over and over, to one word: unprofessional. I can't be sure in any detail what exactly that term means to Kyle Lohse, but TLR is apparently not the only one who wanted Ryan out of the clubhouse, and "unprofessional" seems to be the reason why, whatever it specifically means here.

- Brock Hanke
   34. Frisco Cali Posted: December 25, 2010 at 04:01 AM (#3717639)
White, of course, is also bright enough to be one of the first black upper management types.

Maybe he got promoted by tapping a lot of shoulders.
   35. bjhanke Posted: December 25, 2010 at 07:53 AM (#3717694)
Frisco - Heh. Good Xmas laugh, visualizing Bill White at an owners' meeting, going around the table tapping the owners on their shoulders to become NL President. Somehow, I suspect that his brains had a lot more to do with it, but your visual is just great. Thanks! - Brock
   36. guru4u Posted: January 05, 2011 at 05:30 PM (#3723977)
Now if these projections for the kids could be taken seriously, then I want Descalso as the starting second baseman, Greene at short, and Theriot as the rover. Schumaker is the fifth outfielder, primary backup centerielder. Anderson backup catcher. I like Craig as the primary backup outfielder, but defensively Jay is better.


I think you pretty much nailed it. They didn't need to sign Laird, and Craig would likely put up a similar stat line to Berkman. Greene should be starting at SS over Theriot. So pretty much all the Cards' moves (except signing Westbrook) seem to be very poor decisions. I have yet to be impressed with Mozeliak.

Seems like this is a team that should sign Jeff Francis to an incentive-laden deal.
   37. ColonelTom Posted: February 23, 2011 at 04:34 PM (#3756550)
However, the team has good pitching and enough outfield stars that they should compete very well unless the injury bug hits the rotation (which is very possible given the DL stints of 4 of the 5 likely starters).

Dan's going to get a lot of hate mail this morning.... ;-)
   38. Ken015 Posted: February 23, 2011 at 10:50 PM (#3756910)
Dan,
McClellan is now working in the starter program for the Cards in spring training. How would he project as a starting pitcher? and will he be included that way in the final version? Thanks
   39. Ken015 Posted: February 23, 2011 at 11:25 PM (#3756930)
McClellan is now working in the starter program for the Cards in spring training. How would he project as a starting pitcher? and will he be included that way in the final version?


Looks like you kind of answered this in the Insider article and the comments in the thread here afterwards. Seems he may not be a realistic option.
   40. Ken015 Posted: March 05, 2011 at 10:42 PM (#3764326)
McClellan is now working in the starter program for the Cards in spring training. How would he project as a starting pitcher? and will he be included that way in the final version?


Looks like you kind of answered this in the Insider article and the comments in the thread here afterwards. Seems he may not be a realistic option.

McClellan is now working in the starter program for the Cards in spring training. How would he project as a starting pitcher? and will he be included that way in the final version?


Looks like you kind of answered this in the Insider article and the comments in the thread here afterwards. Seems he may not be a realistic option.
OR
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Maybe they are serious about the starter thing after all because he is still working as a starter in spring training. Wait and see I guess.

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