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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, November 22, 2010

2011 ZiPS Projections - Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are ######.

OK, that’s a stretching a bit for the shock factor, unless you fill in those 6 character with a non-expletive, like decent.  We all know that one of the 362 Rules of Trite Writing is that when you say the effect of something cannot be overstated the writer in question will immediately overstate the effect of something.

So, let’s try to skirt the rule and instead say that you almost cannot overstate the effect of the possible relief pitcher losses by the Rays.  6 Ray relievers are free agents and 5 of those 6 didn’t suck in 2010.  Here are the Five Alive! relievers for Tampa Bay this past season:


Pitcher       IP     ERA  
Soriano     62.1   1.73
Benoit       60.1   1.34
Wheeler     48.1   3.35
Choate       44.2   4.23
Balfour     55.1   2.28
——————————————
          271.0   2.68

While the Rays would have to replace a lot of these innings anyway, thanks to the vagaries of regression, that’s still a good chunk of a bullpen to replace (about 2/3 of relief stints were by these 5 pitchers).  They also have a weighted average leverage index of 1.26, so on bottom-line win value, you’re essentially losing a Cy Young Award plus some valuable change.

The Rays have done a good job scrounging on spare parts to make bullpens, but there’s a limit to how much you can do - it’s hard to replace most of a bullpen in a single offeason by this method and it’s hard to get results like 2010.

All is not lost, however - the team has enough pitching and defense and Evan Longoria to keep from being a bad team, but if the Rays follow through with their intention to cut >$10 million in payroll from 2010, they are probably the 3rd-best team in the AL East.  It’s a very ugly free agent market and the chances of someone that can contribute doing a Bobby Abreu and falling through the cracks this winter are fairly slim.  Right now, I can’t see Tampa Bay being better than an 85-90 win team, short of some surprises.

The team will survive in the long-term thanks to the team churning out pitching faster than Bravo cranks out wealthy-skankertainment, but Crawford + most of the bullpen are losses hard to absorb in a single offseason.  The floor for the Rays is pretty high because at every position, they have ample depth of non-terrible players, but their 2011 ceiling is also relatively low.

Next up:  Royals

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Evan Longoria     R    3B  25   .279 .362 .504 154 573  92 160  40   4  27 101  72 140  12   3  132
Carl Crawford     L    LF  29   .296 .345 .458 148 585  95 173  28  11  15  77  43  94  44  12  115
Ben Zobrist       B    RF  30   .256 .358 .428 129 446  67 114  23   3  16  65  72  91  16   3  112
Carlos Pena       L    1B  33   .218 .348 .463 129 441  67  96  19   1  29  82  83 154   3   1  117
B.J. Upton        R    CF  26   .252 .343 .422 154 559  89 141  36   4  17  66  77 165  43  14  106
Dan Johnson       L    DH  31   .239 .349 .435 122 423  58 101  17   0  22  71  72  98   1   0  111
Desmond Jennings  R    CF  24   .268 .339 .378 126 452  75 121  24   7   4  35  45  78  36   6   94
Jason Bartlett    R    SS  31   .275 .340 .383 138 491  70 135  27   4   6  49  44  84  19   7   96
Hank Blalock      L    3B  30   .254 .305 .432  78 287  37  73  14   2  11  42  20  62   3   1   97
Matthew Joyce     L    RF  26   .236 .334 .420 132 436  58 103  26   3  16  60  63 127   6   6  103
Stephen Vogt      L    DH  26   .282 .332 .381  88 312  38  88  18   2   3  35  23  47   3   1   93
John Jaso         L    C   27   .256 .347 .363 118 391  53 100  18   3   6  44  52  55   3   0   93
Brad Hawpe        L    RF  32   .227 .331 .401 123 401  48  91  21   2  15  59  61 136   1   2   97
Leslie Anderson   L    1B  29   .284 .326 .375 102 408  38 116  20   1   5  34  19  67   2   2   89
Willy Aybar       B    DH  28   .247 .324 .391 104 304  31  75  15   1   9  45  33  57   1   1   93
Sean Rodriguez    R    2B  26   .232 .308 .405 134 440  64 102  22   3  16  54  38 137  10   3   91
Kelly Shoppach    R    C   31   .217 .316 .400  81 235  31  51  13   0  10  33  25  95   0   0   92
Elliot Johnson    B    SS  27   .251 .303 .377 110 419  49 105  18   4   9  41  29 109  18   5   83
Chris Richard     L    1B  37   .230 .302 .394 107 396  44  91  21   1  14  50  37 105   1   0   87
Gabe Kapler       R    RF  35   .234 .303 .389  75 167  22  39   9   1   5  24  15  32   2   1   86
Reid Brignac      L    2B  25   .254 .299 .383 139 472  55 120  25   3  10  54  29 106   6   5   83
Rocco Baldelli    R    DH  29   .234 .288 .383  47 141  17  33   6   0   5  19   8  39   2   0   80
Justin Ruggiano   R    RF  29   .241 .299 .361 119 449  55 108  22   1  10  50  33 143  18   5   78
Dioner Navarro    B    C   27   .245 .308 .353 114 371  38  91  19   0   7  39  31  57   3   2   79
Joe Dillon        R    2B  35   .233 .304 .338  84 275  37  64  12   1   5  30  25  47   3   1   74
Matthew Sweeney   L    3B  23   .223 .281 .341  94 346  33  77  18   1   7  40  27 106   2   0   68
Jose Lobaton      B    C   26   .222 .287 .337  88 297  28  66  13   0   7  30  27  87   1   0   68
Fernando Perez    R    RF  28   .230 .290 .311 105 370  48  85  10   4   4  24  30 110  23   8   63
John Matulia      L    RF  24   .242 .281 .342 131 480  42 116  21   6   5  38  24 131   6   6   68
Kyeong Kang       L    LF  23   .239 .305 .327 110 376  36  90  21   3   2  29  34 116   5   7   71
Angel Chavez      R    3B  29   .243 .279 .330 120 448  39 109  19   1   6  43  21  69   4   3   64
J.J. Furmaniak    R    2B  31   .225 .291 .316 105 377  44  85  15   2   5  31  31  87   9   5   64
Tim Beckham       R    SS  21   .239 .302 .323 154 603  65 144  29   5   4  57  51 185  19  19   70
Rashad Eldridge   B    CF  29   .225 .293 .295 117 448  50 101  16   3   3  34  41  99  12   6   60
Alvin Colina      R    C   29   .210 .264 .338  62 219  19  46  10   0   6  31  14  68   1   1   62
Nevin Ashley      R    C   26   .210 .277 .288 110 396  37  83  12   2   5  34  30 118   5   5   53

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Evan Longoria                                 EX/76
Carl Crawford                                                 EX/76
Ben Zobrist                  AV/120   AV/79  AV/114  AV/139   VG/62           VG/62
Carlos Pena                   AV/91
B.J. Upton                                                           AV/127
Dan Johnson                   AV/99          FR/104
Desmond Jennings                                             VG/128   VG/99  VG/105
Jason Bartlett                                       AV/109
Hank Blalock                 AV/121          PO/100
Matthew Joyce                                                AV/113   FR/96  AV/128
Stephen Vogt             FR  FR/144                           FR/72
John Jaso                FR
Brad Hawpe                   AV/110                                          PO/171
Leslie Anderson              AV/130                          FR/139
Willy Aybar                   AV/97  AV/143  AV/111
Sean Rodriguez               VG/114  VG/101  AV/112  AV/123  AV/111  FR/111  AV/111
Kelly Shoppach           AV
Elliot Johnson                       AV/157  VG/128  FR/132  AV/117          AV/134
Chris Richard                PO/153                          PO/134
Gabe Kapler                                                   AV/95  FR/112   VG/96
Reid Brignac                         AV/116          AV/114
Rocco Baldelli                                                       FR/112  AV/186
Justin Ruggiano                                              VG/128   FR/69  AV/116
Dioner Navarro           VG
Joe Dillon                   FR/128  FR/131  PO/110
Matthew Sweeney                              FR/197
Jose Lobaton             AV
Fernando Perez                                               VG/100  VG/166  VG/144
John Matulia                                                  FR/68  FR/119  FR/109
Kyeong Kang                                                  AV/132  FR/112  VG/206
Angel Chavez                 AV/122  FR/120   AV/80  PO/116
J.J. Furmaniak                        AV/92  VG/105  AV/113
Tim Beckham                                          FR/169
Rashad Eldridge                                              VA/101  AV/111  VG/112
Alvin Colina             VG
Nevin Ashley             VG

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
David Price       L     25    3.48    16    9   33   33  201.7  176   78   19   79  180  121
Jeremy Hellickson R     24    3.58    10    6   24   24  135.7  126   54   11   47  119  118
Matt Garza        R     27    3.84    14    9   34   33  208.7  194   89   25   67  171  110
Jeff Niemann      R     28    4.33    10    9   31   29  170.3  166   82   23   62  128   97
James Shields     R     29    4.38    13   12   34   34  215.7  232  105   30   48  186   96
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Jake McGee        L     24    4.48     4    4   24   17   72.3   75   36    6   34   63   94
Wade Davis        R     25    4.52    12   11   32   32  177.3  178   89   23   74  127   93
Andy Sonnanstine  R     28    4.70     7    7   36   17  130.3  144   68   16   35   84   90
Matthew Moore     L     22    4.79     8    9   27   27  124.0  121   66   12   79  119   88
Nick Barnese      R     22    4.85     6    7   20   19   98.3  110   53    9   40   57   87
Alex Cobb         R     23    4.94     6    7   25   24  118.3  137   65   12   45   84   85
Aneury Rodriguez  R     23    5.15     7    9   29   23  124.0  134   71   17   54   81   82
Joseph Cruz       R     22    5.16     7   10   25   25  120.3  144   69   11   51   74   82
Alexander Torres  L     23    5.48     7   11   29   28  139.7  153   85   14   99  109   77
Jeremy Hall       R     27    5.73     6   10   25   25  124.0  149   79   15   62   67   73
David Newmann     L     26    5.78     5    9   24   24  113.7  140   73   12   61   64   73
Bobby Livingston  L     28    5.97     4    9   25   20  116.0  154   77   15   42   52   71
Albert Suarez     R     21    6.00     2    3    8    8   27.0   31   18    4   15   15   70
Heath Phillips    L     29    6.09     5    9   29   20  116.7  145   79   19   49   59   69
Virgil Vasquez    R     29    6.12     5   10   22   20  107.3  136   73   21   31   58   69

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Rafael Soriano    R     31    2.91     3    1   56    0   52.7   41   17    5   16   61  145
Grant Balfour     R     33    3.05     4    2   63    0   62.0   48   21    5   25   73  138
J.P. Howell       L     28    3.12     5    2   53    0   60.7   47   21    6   28   69  135
Dan Wheeler       R     33    3.73     5    3   65    0   50.7   45   21    7   15   47  113
Winston Abreu     R     34    3.74     2    2   50    0   55.3   48   23    5   26   53  113
Zachary Quate     R     23    3.88     2    1   39    0   51.0   49   22    4   20   43  109
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Randy Choate      L     35    3.97     3    2   80    0   45.3   43   20    4   18   38  106
Chad Qualls       R     32    4.01     4    3   64    0   60.7   62   27    6   17   54  105
R.J. Swindle      L     27    4.04     3    2   43    0   55.7   55   25    6   17   48  104
Joe Bateman       R     31    4.23     4    3   50    1   66.0   65   31    5   34   48  100
Lance Cormier     R     30    4.40     4    3   58    0   73.7   78   36    7   33   42   96
Mike Ekstrom      R     27    4.50     4    4   54    1   74.0   77   37    7   29   51   94
Matt Gorgen       R     24    4.56     3    3   45    0   53.3   51   27    5   33   44   92
Ramon Ortiz       R     38    4.81     3    3   22    7   63.7   68   34    9   23   48   88
Dale Thayer       R     30    4.93     2    3   53    0   65.7   77   36    6   26   41   85
Matt Bush         R     25    5.00     0    0    6    0    9.0    9    5    1    4    8   84
Ryan Reid         R     26    5.10     3    4   47    0   67.0   74   38    5   43   46   83
Dane De La Rosa   R     28    5.15     5    7   51    0   71.7   85   41    6   35   51   82
Darin Downs       L     26    5.34     6    9   39    9   94.3  111   56   12   43   67   79
Paul Phillips     R     27    5.46     3    4   41    2   59.3   69   36    8   28   38   77
Brian Baker       R     28    5.74     5    8   38   11   94.0  112   60   13   46   52   73

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Evan Longoria       .270  .347  .473  2586  9725  1427  2621   645    56   408  1586  1101  2074   190   119
Carl Crawford       .291  .335  .443  2444  9788  1488  2853   427   180   231  1200   615  1427   686   107
B.J. Upton          .248  .335  .400  2327  8504  1272  2113   518    44   228   957  1093  2262   492    98
Carlos Pena         .231  .343  .469  1685  5765   851  1330   265    26   352  1014   926  1769    37   116
Ben Zobrist         .250  .346  .409  1172  4052   570  1012   199    29   130   564   603   757   122   103

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Matt Garza         153  131    0    4.06  403  400     2491 2388 1123  320  838 2005    105
David Price        195  120    0    3.61  399  396     2423 2128  973  253  977 2193    119
James Shields      132  124    0    4.32  354  351     2265 2407 1087  312  511 1881     98

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Evan Longoria     3B    66%  23%   8%   3%   0%        Scott Rolen     Ryan Zimmerman       David Wright
Carl Crawford     LF    41%  31%  13%   9%   6%          Lou Brock       Kenny Lofton     Andy Van Slyke
Ben Zobrist       RF    20%  31%  20%  17%  11%        Jim Russell       Armando Rios         Trot Nixon
Carlos Pena       1B    16%  29%  21%  22%  12%      John Mayberry         Jay Buhner        Matt Stairs
B.J. Upton        CF    36%  25%  23%  11%   4%    Oddibe McDowell         Pat Tabler         Jim Landis
Dan Johnson       DH     8%  22%  23%  31%  16%      John Mayberry      Graham Koonce        Bill Melton
Desmond Jennings  CF    29%  26%  26%  13%   5%    Marquis Grissom      Melky Cabrera    Shannon Stewart
Jason Bartlett    SS    25%  27%  28%  15%   5%         Julio Lugo        Bobby Adams      Jim Davenport
Hank Blalock      3B     6%  19%  25%  26%  25%       Scott Seabol          Rick Schu      Tyler Houston
Matthew Joyce     RF     4%  15%  18%  25%  39%          Bob Skube        Carlos Pena    Ryan Langerhans
Stephen Vogt      DH     0%   4%  11%  35%  50%       Ryan Sweeney        Pete LaCock  Broderick Perkins
John Jaso         C      9%  27%  28%  26%  10%         Marv Foley          Clay Hill   Chris Cannizzaro
Brad Hawpe        RF     2%  10%  13%  22%  52%      Brian Daubach     Bruce Campbell       Mark Leonard
Leslie Anderson   1B     0%   2%   6%  27%  65%  Scott Livingstone      Carlos Rivera         Jim Eppard
Willy Aybar       DH     1%   4%   9%  30%  57%       Kelly Snider     Jose Tolentino         Todd Betts
Sean Rodriguez    2B    10%  14%  20%  27%  29%        Bobby Smith      Randy Velarde        Ian Desmond
Kelly Shoppach    C     13%  26%  24%  24%  13%     Kelly Stinnett        Jason LaRue          Mike Rose
Elliot Johnson    SS     9%  14%  28%  27%  22%         Manuel Lee      Royce Clayton    Dave Concepcion
Chris Richard     1B     1%   4%   6%  20%  68%        Dave Parker        Lee Stevens      Willie Horton
Gabe Kapler       RF     1%   2%   4%  10%  84%     Mike Devereaux         Emil Brown        Pedro Swann
Reid Brignac      2B     3%   4%   8%  20%  65%          Juan Melo        Jose Castro   Jimmy Bloodworth
Rocco Baldelli    DH     0%   0%   2%  11%  87%    Juan Richardson        Stan Holmes Alberto Concepcion
Justin Ruggiano   RF     0%   1%   4%  13%  82%      Shawn Garrett       Chris Aguila        Lyle Mouton
Dioner Navarro    C      2%   5%  13%  32%  48%        Raul Chavez        Walt McKeel      Yadier Molina
Joe Dillon        2B     3%   4%   7%  15%  72%         Rico Rossy      Rene Gonzales       Keith Ginter
Matthew Sweeney   3B     1%   1%   3%   7%  89%       Jamie Taylor         Greg David         Chad Spann
Jose Lobaton      C      1%   2%   5%  17%  75%          Rob Bowen     Gilberto Reyes        Dusty Brown
Fernando Perez    RF     0%   0%   0%   2%  98%      Andres Torres         Cecil Espy      Tony Triplett
John Matulia      RF     0%   0%   0%   1%  99%         Mike Neill        Shawn Jeter        Victor Mata
Kyeong Kang       LF     0%   0%   0%   2%  98%      Angelo Cuevas       Rick Sofield       Dan Ortmeier
Angel Chavez      3B     0%   1%   1%   3%  95%      Pete Rose Jr.    Carlo Colombino        Tom Veryzer
J.J. Furmaniak    2B     1%   1%   1%   4%  93%         Doug Baker     Ronnie Merrill        Ray Holbert
Tim Beckham       SS     2%   3%   3%   4%  88%         Ross Jones       Juan Delgado      Josh Barfield
Rashad Eldridge   CF     0%   0%   0%   2%  98%         Doug Baker        Keith Smith         Doug Clark
Alvin Colina      C      1%   2%   3%   9%  86%        Chris Curry      Dane Sardinha        Heath Hayes
Nevin Ashley      C      0%   0%   1%   2%  97%       Tony Eusebio     Henry Mercedes     Chris Petersen

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Rafael Soriano    RP     73%   24%    3%          Tom Henke     Trevor Hoffman          Mel Rojas
Grant Balfour     RP     71%   25%    4%         Eric Plunk       Scot Shields      Troy Percival
J.P. Howell       RP     63%   32%    5%     Mitch Williams         Will Ohman      Mike Gonzalez
David Price       SP     78%   22%    0%      Chris Nabholz         Barry Zito        Shawn Estes
Jeremy Hellickson SP     68%   31%    1%      Pedro Astacio         Brad Penny          Bob Welch
Dan Wheeler       RP     27%   48%   25%       Jeff Reardon      Jeff Brantley      Mike Trombley
Winston Abreu     RP     31%   53%   17%       Tim Stoddard       Rich DeLucia        Jose DeLeon
Matt Garza        SP     48%   48%    4%         Pete Smith        Brett Tomko         Cal Eldred
Zachary Quate     RP     31%   47%   22%     Alejandro Pena       Brian Fisher         Jeff Innis
Randy Choate      RP     21%   49%   30%      Mike Magnante       Mark Guthrie        Tony Fossas
Chad Qualls       RP     20%   50%   30%         Doug Jones       Bruce Walton           Rod Beck
R.J. Swindle      RP     18%   52%   30%         Tom Gorman         Gabe White   Derek Lilliquist
Joe Bateman       RP     13%   48%   39%         Tony Fiore         Bill Zuber     Dennis Higgins
Jeff Niemann      SP     18%   62%   20%       Rick Helling         Pete Smith          Luis Leal
James Shields     SP     16%   62%   22%          Jose Lima         David Bush          Matt Wise
Lance Cormier     RP      9%   40%   51%         Tony Fiore        Rick Greene      Jose Santiago
Jake McGee        SP     22%   48%   31%        Bill Everly        Manny Parra       Brian Looney
Mike Ekstrom      RP      6%   45%   49%         Mark Brown        Matt Ginter       Daryl Irvine
Wade Davis        SP     13%   59%   28%    Andy McGaffigan      Kevin McGehee     Salomon Torres
Matt Gorgen       RP     13%   40%   47%        Brad Voyles       Brian Bowles      David Aardsma
Andy Sonnanstine  SP      3%   34%   63%         Eric Knott       Jeff Ballard       Joe Crawford
Matthew Moore     SP      7%   47%   46%          Al Leiter      Randy Johnson   Dennis Rasmussen
Ramon Ortiz       RP     10%   34%   56%       Steve Sparks        Terry Clark         Jack Scott
Nick Barnese      SP      9%   42%   49%           Ed Wojna        Jake Joseph     Clemente Nunez
Dale Thayer       RP      3%   26%   71%        Steve Comer      Andy Mitchell      Jose Santiago
Alex Cobb         SP      5%   43%   51%       Sergio Mitre         Mike Mason      Dave Weathers
Matt Bush         RP     32%   20%   48%                 NA                 NA                 NA
Ryan Reid         RP      2%   23%   75%         Alan Mills Heathcliff Slocumb     Ryan Henderson
Dane De La Rosa   RP      1%   19%   80%        Jose Segura Heathcliff Slocumb     Dwight Bernard
Aneury Rodriguez  SP      2%   26%   72%         Tim Mauser       Rob Woodward         Steve Farr
Joseph Cruz       SP      3%   33%   63%     Clemente Nunez           Ed Wojna        Jake Joseph
Darin Downs       RP      0%   11%   89%       Jeff Granger       Matt Perisho      Dennis Powell
Paul Phillips     RP      1%   13%   86%       Greg Bartley       Andy Shipman    William Vaughan
Alexander Torres  SP      1%   17%   83%      Luis Martinez        Dan Chergey       Harold Allen
Jeremy Hall       SP      0%   10%   89%          Ben Fritz       Steve Sparks     Hatuey Mendoza
Brian Baker       RP      0%    4%   96%      Timothy Smith         Lee Rodney    Chris Bootcheck
David Newmann     SP      0%    8%   92%      Mike Wodnicki       Chris George         Greg Kubes
Heath Rollins     SP      0%    2%   98%      Jim Gutierrez     Ron Rightnowar       Nick McCurdy
Bobby Livingston  SP      0%    4%   96%       Brian Shouse          Dave Otto     Lee Guetterman
Albert Suarez     SP      5%   16%   79%    Brian Edmondson       Steve Matcuk     Keith Bucktrot
Heath Phillips    SP      0%    3%   96%       Benj Sampson      Brian Abraham        Huck Flener
Virgil Vasquez    SP      0%    5%   95%    Steve Ellsworth       Glenn Abbott          Jose Lima

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Evan Longoria           20%      31%      52%      38%       5%      43%      32%       4%
Carl Crawford           44%      14%      19%       1%      61%       3%      10%      76%
Ben Zobrist              5%      26%       5%       0%       1%       1%       6%       5%
Carlos Pena              0%      19%      23%       0%       0%      44%      12%       0%
B.J. Upton               2%      11%       3%      17%       2%       4%       2%      89%
Dan Johnson              1%      19%       8%       0%       0%      11%       6%       0%
Desmond Jennings        10%      11%       0%       0%      20%       0%       0%      68%
Jason Bartlett          17%      11%       1%       1%       4%       0%       1%      11%
Hank Blalock             6%       2%       8%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Matthew Joyce            0%       7%       4%       0%       2%       2%       1%       1%
Stephen Vogt            27%       9%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
John Jaso                5%      15%       1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Brad Hawpe               0%       6%       1%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Leslie Anderson         28%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Willy Aybar              3%       4%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Sean Rodriguez           0%       1%       1%       0%       1%       1%       0%       1%
Kelly Shoppach           0%       4%       4%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Elliot Johnson           3%       1%       2%       0%       2%       0%       1%       6%
Chris Richard            1%       1%       3%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Gabe Kapler              3%       2%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Reid Brignac             3%       0%       1%       0%       1%       1%       0%       0%
Rocco Baldelli           3%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Justin Ruggiano          1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       3%
Dioner Navarro           2%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Joe Dillon               2%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Matthew Sweeney          0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jose Lobaton             0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Fernando Perez           0%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%      13%
John Matulia             1%       0%       0%       0%      10%       0%       0%       0%
Kyeong Kang              1%       1%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Angel Chavez             1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
J.J. Furmaniak           0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       2%
Tim Beckham              0%       0%       0%       4%      10%       0%       0%       7%
Rashad Eldridge          0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Alvin Colina             0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Rafael Soriano            73%        96%        96%        16%        80%
Grant Balfour             63%        95%        97%         1%        82%
J.P. Howell               55%        93%        95%         0%        75%
David Price               33%        94%        50%         0%        78%
Jeremy Hellickson         31%        88%        43%         2%        87%
Dan Wheeler               27%        68%        59%        17%        42%
Winston Abreu             31%        78%        69%         0%        70%
Matt Garza                12%        79%        21%         2%        41%
Zachary Quate             23%        72%        27%         2%        86%
Randy Choate              21%        62%        34%         3%        73%
Chad Qualls               15%        63%        43%        29%        77%
R.J. Swindle              18%        63%        33%        15%        54%
Joe Bateman               10%        55%         8%         1%        86%
Jeff Niemann               2%        45%         6%         0%        30%
James Shields              2%        41%        33%        52%        23%
Lance Cormier              7%        38%         2%         1%        72%
Jake McGee                 7%        45%        42%         1%        82%
Mike Ekstrom               4%        37%         2%         1%        69%
Wade Davis                 1%        35%         3%         0%        37%
Matt Gorgen                9%        45%        21%         0%        73%
Andy Sonnanstine           3%        26%         4%        25%        37%
Matthew Moore              1%        22%        70%         0%        72%
Ramon Ortiz               10%        38%        19%        10%        46%
Nick Barnese               1%        22%         0%         0%        74%
Dale Thayer                2%        19%         1%         2%        72%
Alex Cobb                  0%        16%         3%         1%        64%
Matt Bush                 32%        52%        34%        28%        67%
Ryan Reid                  1%        15%         3%         0%        86%
Dane De La Rosa            1%        11%         3%         0%        86%
Aneury Rodriguez           0%         8%         1%         0%        27%
Joseph Cruz                0%        10%         0%         0%        75%
Darin Downs                0%         7%         2%         0%        52%
Paul Phillips              0%        10%         1%         0%        51%
Alexander Torres           0%         3%         9%         0%        77%
Jeremy Hall                0%         1%         0%         0%        45%
Brian Baker                0%         2%         1%         0%        29%
David Newmann              0%         1%         0%         0%        64%
Heath Rollins              0%         1%         0%         0%        20%
Bobby Livingston           0%         1%         0%         2%        43%
Albert Suarez              1%         9%         1%         1%        38%
Heath Phillips             0%         0%         0%         0%        13%
Virgil Vasquez             0%         1%         0%        16%         5%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Toronto Blue Jays

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 22, 2010 at 08:36 PM | 37 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: November 22, 2010 at 09:33 PM (#3695557)
brad hawpe? 97 OPS+? didn't we do this last year?
   2. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 22, 2010 at 09:48 PM (#3695564)
? I gave him a 116 last year!
   3. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 22, 2010 at 09:57 PM (#3695569)
Is there a projection for McGee and Davis as relievers?
   4. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: November 22, 2010 at 09:58 PM (#3695570)
? I gave him a 116 last year!
exactly. in the rockies' release, you projected him to a .264/.367/.468, 116 OPS+.

but when the spreadsheet was released, he was at .289/.388/.524, 126 OPS+. apparently there was a flaw in the data for the 1st release that was fixed for the 2nd.


i know his 2010 wasn't good, but a 97 OPS+ seems quite a bit too pessimistic.
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 22, 2010 at 10:01 PM (#3695573)
Ah, forgot about that.

I'd have been better off not fixing the mistake.
   6. JJ1986 Posted: November 22, 2010 at 10:04 PM (#3695578)
Sonnanstine is right-handed.
   7. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: November 22, 2010 at 10:07 PM (#3695580)

Ah, forgot about that.

I'd have been better off not fixing the mistake.
hehe. well, maybe not if a similar one popped up this year.

the last 5 years of OPS+ for hawpe are 120, 130, 121, 125, and 94 (last season). i'm curious to figure out how a 97 pops up this year based on that recent history.
   8. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 22, 2010 at 10:25 PM (#3695588)
Can we talk about Ben Zobrist again this year? That was fun.
   9. Walt Davis Posted: November 22, 2010 at 10:30 PM (#3695597)
Why does ZiPS love Zobrist? Didn't ZiPS read the articles about the changes in his hitting approach? Doesn't it know I've seen him at least 10 times and he deserves every one of those 94 OPS+ points he had this year? Doesn't it see the huge trend downward? Doesn't it know that a RF with a 353 SLG has no place in today's game? Does it really think that 6th round draft choices age as well as 1st round draft choices?

Silly ZiPS.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: November 22, 2010 at 10:34 PM (#3695603)
On more useful (?) notes, I guess I thought the starters would project a bit better than that. Nice comps for Soriano.

Along with the pen, the holes at LF, 1B and (essentially/probably) DH leave them in fairly rough shape at the moment.
   11. Travolta19 Posted: November 22, 2010 at 11:11 PM (#3695625)
Have to say I'm pretty surprised both Hawpe and Joyce are so low. For Hawpe, his ZiP is radically different than it was last year, I kind of echo Steagles there. As for Joyce, it's close to what it was last year, but seems low. He has a MLB career OPS of .830, compared to a .754 ZiP. He's never had an OPS that low in his career, except for one stop in A ball in 2006 (.753). I know minor league stats certainly don't convert one-for-one, so I imagine that has something to do with it; but, I'm not sure anyone here wouldn't bet the over on .754.

In any case, it seems like Joyce (a young player w/o a long track record) has a projection greatly tied to last year. Conversely, Hawpe (a player with a long, established track record) doesn't seem to derive any consistency from his previous marks.

By the way, not trying to nitpick, as I greatly value and enjoy these projections. Just my 2 cents.
   12. John DiFool2 Posted: November 22, 2010 at 11:17 PM (#3695629)
Could the Hall deny entry to a 3B with over 1100 XBH?
   13. threepointpi Posted: November 22, 2010 at 11:20 PM (#3695630)
Great comps for Mr. Longoria right there, althought that should be expected by now.

Funny to see Oddibe McDowell pop up on the comps list, is he who the system is named after?

And not that I really know who Stephen Vogt is, but looking at his ratings it seems that he's an all-bat DH-type player, funny to see a guy like Ryan Sweeney (a great defender) pop up on the comps.
   14. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 22, 2010 at 11:21 PM (#3695632)

And not that I really know who Stephen Vogt is, but looking at his ratings it seems that he's an all-bat DH-type player, funny to see a guy like Ryan Sweeney (a great defender) pop up on the comps.


Remember, comps are offense only! I haven't found any value in defensive performance (outside of a speed score variant, which good defensive players tend to be better at) in offensive projections!
   15. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 22, 2010 at 11:23 PM (#3695634)
Why does ZiPS love Zobrist? Didn't ZiPS read the articles about the changes in his hitting approach? Doesn't it know I've seen him at least 10 times and he deserves every one of those 94 OPS+ points he had this year?

Josh did make a comment admitting that ZiPS was closer on Zobrist this time around. He's been pretty supportive of ZiPS, so I think it's best if we all drop this before feelings get raw!
   16. jfish26101 Posted: November 22, 2010 at 11:37 PM (#3695644)
One, as Dan said, I already admitted I was wrong on Zobrist in the first article he released this year.

Two, he struggled with back injuries all year (you can look it up).

Three, I never expected him to duplicate his 2009 season but I still say he is a better hitter than ~110 OPS+. We will just have to see.

TB has a bright future, lot of young talent. I'm sure if he turns around this year and posts a OPS+ over 120 (like I thought he would last year) you all will change your tune correct? Haha
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 22, 2010 at 11:37 PM (#3695645)
By the way, not trying to nitpick, as I greatly value and enjoy these projections. Just my 2 cents.

If I didn't want criticism or nitpicking, I would certainly close these for comments!

The translated/park neutral/league neutral proj. 2010 baseline for Joyce is 240/335/442, derived from recent translations/actual MLB combined of 247/368/451, 239/324/402, 255/336/502, and 225/276/337. When you factor in regression (doesn't hit Joyce hard since he's fairly ordinary), his comparisons, and new park/league, it drops to that projection above.
   18. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 22, 2010 at 11:49 PM (#3695651)
WRT Hawpe
he is 32 and speaking as a Met fan, if a guy that age with an established skill level of 120 or so, puts up a 90, I don't hold my breath waiting for a comeback....

that said, a simple marcelike system would likely see him at 106 (3 year weighted average less a 3 point penalty for being on the wrong side of 30)...

Hawpe had very unusual home road splits in Coors
by very unusual I mean, his H/R splits looked like a guy playing in a neutral park

Hawpe career H/R:
H: .285/.377/.509
R: .273/.369/.470

Barmes:
H: .285/.335/.458
R: .224/.266/.352

Tulo:
H: .312/.383/.544
R: .269/.342/.448

Atkins:
H: .321/.380/.495
R: .252/.322/.406

Holliday:
H: .345/.419/.616
R: .289/.356/.469

I looked this up because a pal of mine dismissed Hawpe as a "Coors Creation" when he was discussed in a fantasy trade last year... Whatever Hawpe is/was that was certainly an unfair label- or maybe individual H/R splits are just meaningless

FWIW Ian Stewart's H/R splits are likewise seemingly unaffected by the altitude in Denver...
   19. trtaylor6886 Posted: November 23, 2010 at 01:26 AM (#3695697)
How is defense projected? Most metrics show Brignac as above average and Bartlett as below average in 2010, based on age you would figure that trend would continue.
   20. fret Posted: November 23, 2010 at 01:32 AM (#3695699)
I had to look up Chris Nabholz. Definitely hope Price doesn't turn into him, or Shawn Estes for that matter.
   21. sportznut Posted: November 23, 2010 at 03:09 AM (#3695736)
Can I get a projection for Corey Wade, who the Rays signed to a minor league deal recently? Thanks.
   22. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 23, 2010 at 03:37 AM (#3695747)
Taylor, I use recent year regressed defensive stats (1 year defensive stats volatility is similar to that of 2 months of offensive stats) with scouting reports breaking ties.

For minor league range, the stat situation is inferior (Smith and I have similar systems for estimating minor leaguers but it can't touch the MLB stuff in quality because the stuff needed just isn't tracked), so I have to rely more on scouting reports. Errors are easier, of course. I'd like to wring some of the fragments of subjectivity out of the system, but that's not really possible for players without higher quality defensive stats.

I try to use a lot of sources and pay more attention to guys with a track record of objective approaches and I do have some connections, but it's a mixed bag. When observing defensive performance rather than mechanics/tools, our brains are designed very poorly for accumulating large amounts of similar observations.
   23. trtaylor6886 Posted: November 23, 2010 at 02:39 PM (#3695859)
Thanks for the explanation, Dan
   24. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: November 23, 2010 at 02:54 PM (#3695866)
Interesting point about the bullpen. I don't think I'd fully appreciated how good their bullpen was this year as a whole. It's easy to look at one or two guys and forget that, taken together, the bullpen is worth a couple of starters.
   25. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: November 23, 2010 at 08:17 PM (#3696167)
No Matt Moore projection?
   26. jfish26101 Posted: November 23, 2010 at 08:39 PM (#3696185)
No Matt Moore projection?

He is on there:

Matthew Moore L 22 4.79 8 9 27 27 124.0 121 66 12 79 119 88
   27. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 23, 2010 at 08:56 PM (#3696197)
Çhris Nabholz was one of the major characters in Steve Fireovid's book about his 1990 season. Maybe the most memorable passage was the part about how Nabholz got called up from AA to AAA and the Expos management decided to move Fireovid into the bullpen, even though he was obviously an innings-eater and not a reliever. Nabholz got called up to the majors that year after only 4 starts with the AAA team, but Fireovid doesn't seem as bitter about being passed over for that opportunity as he was when Howard Farmer got called up instead of him.
   28. zenbitz Posted: November 24, 2010 at 01:21 AM (#3696387)
If zips is right, someone is going to massively overpay for Crawford. Although I guess if you give him a VG for CF (or Ex?) it looks better.

Actually, if Zips is WRONG there will probably be a massive overpay!
   29. jar75 Posted: November 24, 2010 at 02:56 PM (#3696615)

He is on there:

Matthew Moore L 22 4.79 8 9 27 27 124.0 121 66 12 79 119 88


Most notable, I think, are the top two comps: Al Leiter and Randy Johnson.
   30. Barnaby Jones Posted: November 24, 2010 at 03:37 PM (#3696630)
Those are some pretty encouraging comps for Matt Moore.

EDIT: coke to jar.
   31. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: November 24, 2010 at 03:51 PM (#3696642)
[26] Thanks. Apologies, Dan.
   32. Walt Davis Posted: November 24, 2010 at 06:00 PM (#3696761)
Most notable, I think, are the top two comps: Al Leiter and Randy Johnson.

Remember, comps are offense only!

:-)
   33. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 24, 2010 at 06:20 PM (#3696777)
<whomps Walt with shovel>
   34. kwarren Posted: December 02, 2010 at 06:38 AM (#3700625)

Pitcher IP ERA
Soriano 62.1 1.73
Benoit 60.1 1.34
Wheeler 48.1 3.35
Choate 44.2 4.23
Balfour 55.1 2.28
----------------------------
271.0 2.68

While the Rays would have to replace a lot of these innings anyway, thanks to the vagaries of regression, that's still a good chunk of a bullpen to replace (about 2/3 of relief stints were by these 5 pitchers). They also have a weighted average leverage index of 1.26, so on bottom-line win value, you're essentially losing a Cy Young Award plus some valuable change.



That's sort of like saying that an offense that loses five players each hitting 10 HR, needs to find a 50 HR guy to make up the slack. A 2.68 ERA spread over five guys is about 20% as valuable as if one player produced those results. The comparison of this potential loss as being equivalent to losing a Cy Young award winner is not particularly accurate.
   35. Zoppity Zoop Posted: December 27, 2010 at 07:20 PM (#3718391)


That's sort of like saying that an offense that loses five players each hitting 10 HR, needs to find a 50 HR guy to make up the slack. A 2.68 ERA spread over five guys is about 20% as valuable as if one player produced those results. The comparison of this potential loss as being equivalent to losing a Cy Young award winner is not particularly accurate.


This would only make sense if the relievers were down around replacement level.

Those 5 guys has a WAR of about 7 (Rivera and Lee were at 7.3). It's better to get 7 wins from 2 players than 5, but you're making a comical overestimation of opportunity cost. If 5 players with 7 wins are only 20% as valuable as 1 player with 7 wins, you're essentially arguing that 5 1.4-win players have the same value as a single 1.4-win player, i.e., that 1.4 WAR is actually where replacement value should be. For something that crazy, you better be prepared to show your work.
   36. Kurt Posted: December 27, 2010 at 08:02 PM (#3718411)
That's sort of like saying that an offense that loses five players each hitting 10 HR, needs to find a 50 HR guy to make up the slack. A 2.68 ERA spread over five guys is about 20% as valuable as if one player produced those results. The comparison of this potential loss as being equivalent to losing a Cy Young award winner is not particularly accurate.

In addition to what Prince Fielder said wrt opportunity cost, you're ignoring leverage. In some ways it's better to have five bullpen guys with a 2.68 ERA than a Cy Young winner, because you can handle basically any high leverage situation, where Cy Young (unless he plays for Seattle) will be pitching in a lot of blowouts.

Also, one guy has thrown 270 innings in the last 20 years.
   37. sliver7 Posted: February 04, 2011 at 03:03 AM (#3743137)
I wonder how different the whole projection differs now, after the additions of Manny and Damon in particular, and the gaggle of relief pitchers picked up on minor league contracts in general.

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