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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, November 09, 2010

2011 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers

Cliff Lee might not be coming back to Texas and in the playoffs, the bullpen had worse management than Badfinger thanks to Ron Washington.  But the Rangers have little to be disappointed about in a season in which the team made the World Series.

Can they do it again?  Probably.  The A’s have an awful offense, the Mariners have some obvious major fixing to do, and while I’ve gotten in trouble counting out the Angels before, they were awfully mediocre this year, though always have the ability to make some noise in free agency (not that it’s a great crop).  From the latter, the Rangers will likely fear Mike Trout soon, but probably not quite yet.

Who would have guessed a year ago that Colby Lewis and C.J. Wilson would be 2 of the key 3 Ranger starters in a World Series run?  Not me.  Against all odds, Wilson’s arm and endurance held up (he’s never thrown anywhere near the number of innings) and the Rangers terrific signing of Lewis proved to be one of the bargains of the year, along with Vlad’s one-year deal (except when he was playing defense against the Giants).

At this point, the Rangers still look like the favorite in the AL West, but we’re probably looking at the mid-to-upper-80s for wins rather than an AL beatdown if Lee and Guerrero can’t be replaced adequately.  A lot did go right for the Rangers and the absolutely sick bullpen should keep the team’s bottom from dropping out if the breaks otherwise don’t go their way in 2011.

Next up:  Marlins

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Josh Hamilton     L    CF  30   .306 .364 .533 128 493  75 151  31   3  25  90  44  99   9   2  133
Nelson Cruz       R    RF  30   .283 .350 .536 125 459  68 130  26   3  28  82  47 107  18   5  130
Ian Kinsler       R    2B  29   .282 .362 .467 126 493  88 139  28   3  19  68  57  70  25   5  117
Vladimir Guerrero R    DH  36   .293 .343 .491 128 495  67 145  25   2  23  82  34  62   3   4  117
David Murphy      L    LF  29   .277 .338 .446 132 437  57 121  26   3  14  63  43  83  10   3  105
Michael Young     R    3B  34   .285 .334 .442 143 593  82 169  33   3  18  75  46  99   6   2  103
Mitch Moreland    L    RF  25   .269 .336 .433 149 568  68 153  35   2  18  85  57 108   4   3  101
Jorge Cantu       R    3B  29   .272 .321 .436 139 530  62 144  34   1  17  77  34  86   2   1   97
Julio Borbon      L    CF  25   .289 .329 .368 160 595  85 172  20   6   5  54  31  78  35  12   84
Jeff Francoeur    R    RF  27   .265 .309 .419 156 566  70 150  30   3  17  83  32 104   5   3   90
Chris Davis       L    1B  25   .254 .313 .417 160 568  71 144  35   2  18  83  49 180   4   2   91
Elvis Andrus      R    SS  22   .269 .344 .338 160 592  89 159  20   6   3  42  63  96  37  12   81
Cristian Guzman   B    2B  33   .279 .313 .369 122 466  64 130  19   4   5  43  20  63   4   4   79
Chad S. Tracy     R    DH  25   .236 .293 .400 126 492  55 116  25   1  18  70  37 117   5   2   81
Bengie Molina     R    C   36   .258 .291 .392 119 418  38 108  18   1  12  63  17  47   0   0   78
Christopher McGuinL    1B  23   .238 .336 .367 130 491  47 117  22   1  13  56  67 124   2   6   86
Max Ramirez       R    C   26   .237 .319 .369  94 325  35  77  14   1   9  47  37 102   1   1   81
Esteban German    R    2B  33   .246 .324 .326 118 402  55  99  17   3   3  40  43  72  25   7   72
Andres Blanco     B    2B  27   .269 .316 .346  92 260  26  70  12   1   2  26  16  33   3   2   75
Brandon Boggs     B    CF  28   .223 .320 .361 111 382  47  85  20   3   9  41  54 125   5   4   80
Craig Gentry      R    CF  27   .251 .307 .336 111 422  57 106  15   3   5  36  27  86  20   6   70
Hernan Iribarren  L    2B  27   .260 .306 .348 130 466  51 121  20   3   5  49  31  87  12   8   72
Engel Beltre      L    CF  21   .261 .299 .350 139 560  55 146  18   7   6  43  21 108  20  14   71
Matthew Brown     R    3B  28   .222 .282 .384  99 378  41  84  22   3  11  41  29 108   3   3   74
Davis Stoneburner R    2B  26   .238 .286 .337 113 442  45 105  22   2   6  39  24 109  10   4   64
Matt Treanor      R    C   35   .227 .300 .319  71 216  21  49   6   1   4  26  20  47   1   1   64
Taylor Teagarden  R    C   27   .199 .278 .346  88 301  35  60  12   1  10  35  29 129   0   0   63
Gregorio Petit    R    SS  26   .237 .286 .323 127 468  53 111  20   1   6  45  30 101   6   4   60
Willy Taveras     R    CF  29   .227 .273 .284 105 366  49  83  11   2   2  21  20  58  29   6   48
Kevin Richardson  R    C   30   .204 .250 .358  69 240  22  49  10   0   9  25  12  96   0   0   58

Defensive Projections

Player             CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Josh Hamilton                                              AV/122  AV/117  AV/108
Nelson Cruz                                                AV/131          AV/131
Ian Kinsler                        AV/116
Vladimir Guerrero                                                          PO/153
David Murphy                                               AV/57   PO/105  VG/83
Michael Young                              FR/91   PO/67
Mitch Moreland             AV/114                          AV/163          AV/163
Jorge Cantu                AV/94           FR/146
Julio Borbon                                               EX/161  EX/156
Jeff Francoeur                                                             FR/69
Chris Davis                AV/129          PO/119          FR/129
Elvis Andrus                                       VG/124
Cristian Guzman                    AV/121          FR/113                  FR/129
Chad S. Tracy              FR/98
Bengie Molina      FR
Christopher McGuiness      AV/115
Max Ramirez        PO
Esteban German                     FR/132  FR/159  FR/135  FR/110  FR/110
Andres Blanco                      FR/104  AV/120  AV/158
Brandon Boggs                                              VG/93   AV/117  AV/108
Craig Gentry                                               VG/114  VG/122  VG/114
Hernan Iribarren                   AV/70   AV/70           AV/48   FR/110  FR/107
Engel Beltre                                                       VG/234
Matthew Brown              AV/191          PO/163          AV/116
Davis Stoneburner                  FR/198  AV/142  PO/230
Matt Treanor       AV
Taylor Teagarden   AV
Gregorio Petit                     VG/109  VG/107  AV/130
Willy Taveras                                                      VG/155  VG/108
Kevin Richardson   FR

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Cliff Lee         L     33    3.21    17    6   30   30  213.3  207   76   17   29  174  141
Colby Lewis       R     31    3.71    16    9   31   31  191.7  177   79   23   53  191  122
C.J. Wilson       L     30    3.77    13    7   28   28  155.3  142   65   13   70  137  120
Rich Harden       R     29    4.15     9    6   26   25  134.3  118   62   19   65  143  109
Derek Holland     L     24    4.54    10    8   27   21  125.0  125   63   18   45  103  100
Scott Feldman     R     28    4.67    11   10   31   26  165.7  181   86   20   54   93   97
Brandon McCarthy  R     27    4.71     4    4   14   14   72.7   75   38   11   25   48   96
Tommy Hunter      R     24    4.73    10   10   29   28  159.7  172   84   24   50   92   96
Omar Beltre       R     29    4.93     7    7   27   17   87.7   92   48    8   54   68   92
Matt Harrison     L     23    5.00     5    5   29   15  102.7  115   57   13   42   61   91
Michael Kirkman   L     24    5.08     8    9   32   24  140.0  146   79   17   85  102   89
Mark Prior        R     30    5.40     0    1    2    2   10.0   11    6    2    5    7   84
Robert Ross       L     22    5.51     8   10   24   24  112.7  141   69   12   46   57   82
Guillermo Moscoso R     27    5.68     5    8   26   19  111.0  129   70   18   50   79   80
Ben Snyder        L     25    5.79     5    7   37   11  105.7  125   68   16   50   68   78
Doug Mathis       R     28    5.93     4    7   30   14   98.7  127   65   15   38   49   76
Travis Chick      R     27    5.97     4    6   17   13   69.3   84   46   10   38   43   76
Ryan Tucker       R     24    6.03     3    5   25    9   62.7   75   42    7   44   35   75
Kasey Kiker       L     23    6.13     3    6   19   14   69.0   71   47    9   65   53   74
Wilfredo Boscan   R     21    6.24     7   13   27   26  135.7  179   94   21   49   63   73
Martin Perez      L     20    6.43     5    9   26   22   99.3  125   71   15   59   68   70
Michael Ballard   L     27    6.51     5   10   28   21  120.3  166   87   20   42   58   70
Wilmer Font       R     21    6.56     3    6   22   20   82.3   95   60   12   73   57   69

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Neftali Feliz     R     23    3.03     5    2   71    0   71.3   56   24    6   23   77  149
Alexi Ogando      R     27    3.08     4    1   57    0   64.3   51   22    6   31   67  147
Darren O’Day      R     28    3.17     4    2   68    0   65.3   57   23    6   18   54  143
Frank Francisco   R     32    3.42     6    2   56    0   55.3   46   21    6   19   66  133
Buzz Oliver       L     40    3.43     3    1   58    0   63.0   58   24    6   18   57  132
Clay Rapada       L     30    4.17     3    2   53    0   54.0   52   25    4   27   43  109
Mark Lowe         R     28    4.40     3    3   44    0   47.0   48   23    6   19   40  103
Zach Phillips     L     24    4.48     3    2   44    2   68.3   66   34    5   41   50  101
Pedro Strop       R     26    4.70     3    3   43    0   46.0   46   24    5   27   41   96
Dustin Nippert    R     30    4.94     6    6   33    9   85.7   90   47   12   41   65   92
Warner Madrigal   R     27    5.09     3    3   50    0   58.3   61   33   10   25   41   89
Tanner Scheppers  R     24    5.13     2    2   38    7   80.7   91   46   10   36   68   88
Mark Hamburger    R     24    6.06     3    5   49    0   62.3   75   42    9   37   39   75

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Vladimir Guerrero   .311  .371  .539  2518  9610  1514  2988   540    51   516  1735   833  1154   190   134
Elvis Andrus        .267  .349  .344  2524  9223  1405  2461   344    85    67   680  1078  1428   405    84
Michael Young       .294  .340  .438  1820  7469  1065  2198   408    50   188   947   530  1176    93   101
Ian Kinsler         .273  .348  .441  1585  6211  1052  1697   341    34   212   790   657   805   242   106
Josh Hamilton       .294  .349  .498  1548  5988   848  1761   341    37   268  1002   486  1073    85   120
Bengie Molina       .270  .302  .405  1673  5906   552  1593   264     8   173   870   249   588     3    84
Chris Davis         .250  .311  .422  1340  4700   587  1175   294    14   162   682   417  1463    32    91
Nelson Cruz         .270  .333  .491  1301  4700   638  1269   252    22   247   756   442  1007   136   114
Julio Borbon        .283  .324  .369  1284  4679   666  1324   162    39    54   443   252   602   213    83
David Murphy        .274  .334  .438  1122  3667   478  1006   220    21   113   522   348   667    77   102

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO    ERA+
Cliff Lee          207  113    0    3.73  425  421     2844 2887 1180  284  563 2176    119

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Josh Hamilton     CF    82%  11%   5%   1%   0%        Jim Edmonds      George Altman        Ben Ogilvie
Nelson Cruz       RF    54%  27%  10%   6%   3%    Richard Hidalgo     Jesse Barfield       Carl Everett
Ian Kinsler       2B    74%  14%   7%   4%   1%       Charlie Neal       Billy Werber      Ryne Sandberg
Vladimir Guerrero DH    11%  25%  22%  27%  15%         Andy Pafko           Jim Rice       Frank Thomas
David Murphy      LF    10%  24%  21%  23%  22%      Marty Cordova      Barry Bonnell     Billy McMillon
Michael Young     3B    11%  22%  25%  24%  18%      Travis Fryman      Pinky Whitney       Jeff Cirillo
Mitch Moreland    RF     3%  14%  18%  27%  38%          Steve Cox          J.T. Snow     Nelson Simmons
Jorge Cantu       3B     4%  16%  23%  29%  28%      Charlie Hayes      Mike Cervenak      Tracy Woodson
Julio Borbon      CF     4%   8%  21%  33%  34%        Juan Pierre      Lance Johnson     Brandon Watson
Jeff Francoeur    RF     1%   4%   8%  19%  68%         Mike Vento        Julio Vinas       Jesus Guzman
Chris Davis       1B     0%   4%   8%  27%  61%        Glenn Davis     Jason Thompson        Lee Stevens
Elvis Andrus      SS     7%  15%  29%  27%  21%       Jerry Browne  Alejandro Machado        Derek Jeter
Cristian Guzman   2B     1%   3%   7%  17%  72%       Tito Fuentes      Jose Vizcaino  Mark Grudzielanek
Chad S. Tracy     DH     0%   1%   2%  13%  84%      Tom Forrester       Butch Garcia      Willis Otanez
Bengie Molina     C      3%   9%  13%  27%  48%            Bo Diaz    Darrin Fletcher          Bob Boone
Chris McGuinness  1B     1%   2%   3%  13%  81%      Micah Kaaihue       Dustin Yount       Jose Birriel
Max Ramirez       C      4%   9%  16%  33%  38%      Terry McGriff       John Gibbons        Dusty Brown
Esteban German    2B     4%   4%   8%  19%  66%       Mitch Simons         Tim Barker      Freddie Patek
Andres Blanco     2B     1%   2%   4%  14%  78%    Ever Magallanes        Al Pedrique         Bruce Yard
Brandon Boggs     CF     1%   2%   7%  22%  69%        Jason Evans    Ryan Langerhans   Paul Householder
Craig Gentry      CF     1%   1%   5%  18%  75%        Tom Goodwin        Kenny James    Rashad Eldridge
Hernan Iribarren  2B     1%   1%   2%   8%  87%      Tommy Shields     Bobby DeJardin          Juan Melo
Engel Beltre      CF     1%   1%   3%  10%  85%       Trench Davis      Terry Crowley       Keiunta Span
Matthew Brown     3B     0%   1%   3%   8%  87%       Brandon Inge         Bryn Kosco          Bob Bafia
Davis Stoneburner 2B     0%   1%   2%   5%  92%       Enrique Cruz        Mendy Lopez       Eric Knowles
Matt Treanor      C      1%   2%   4%  12%  82%     Kirt Manwaring      Frank Charles        Rick Cerone
Taylor Teagarden  C      1%   2%   4%  14%  80%          Tim Glass     Henry Mercedes        Dan Whitmer
Gregorio Petit    SS     0%   1%   3%   8%  88%    Oswaldo Navarro          John Alva    Milko Jaramillo
Willy Taveras     CF     0%   0%   1%   4%  95%         Tony Diggs        Terry Jones      Quincy Foster
Kevin Richardson  C      1%   1%   2%   6%  90%        Kevin Brown    Paul Chiaffredo      Jayhawk Owens

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Neftali Feliz     RP     84%   16%    1%     Byung-Hyun Kim      Antonio Osuna      Huston Street
Alexi Ogando      RP     78%   20%    1%     Scott Garrelts    Armando Benitez   Scott Williamson
Darren O’Day      RP     75%   23%    1%         Derek Lowe          Tim Burke     Mariano Rivera
Cliff Lee         SP     96%    4%    0%        John Smiley       Jeff Fassero      Andy Pettitte
Frank Francisco   RP     67%   29%    4%       Rich Gossage          Tom Henke           Robb Nen
Buzz Oliver       RP     67%   30%    3%      Chris Hammond        John Franco     Rick Honeycutt
Colby Lewis       SP     79%   21%    0%     Javier Vazquez       Mike Mussina     Curt Schilling
C.J. Wilson       SP     70%   28%    2%       Sam McDowell          Al Leiter         Doug Davis
Rich Harden       SP     52%   41%    7%         Hideo Nomo          Sam Jones        Tim Belcher
Clay Rapada       RP     28%   50%   21%     Tippy Martinez       Doug Capilla         Tug McGraw
Mark Lowe         RP     16%   46%   38%         Paul Shuey       Bert Roberge         Mike Adams
Zach Phillips     RP     15%   55%   29%      Grant Jackson        Luke Walker       Billy McCool
Derek Holland     SP     29%   55%   16%        Brad Havens         Bruce Chen         Randy Wolf
Scott Feldman     SP     15%   65%   20%        Dave Eiland        Bill Laskey      Jaime Navarro
Pedro Strop       RP     13%   44%   44%     Frank Williams         Jim Stoops         Duane Ward
Brandon McCarthy  SP     23%   46%   31%    Armando Reynoso          Chad Ogea         Mark Clark
Tommy Hunter      SP     16%   62%   23%        Bill Wegman       Brian Holton      Mike Williams
Omar Beltre       SP     18%   49%   32%     Kevin Gallaher     Allie Reynolds      Charlie Puleo
Dustin Nippert    RP      4%   43%   53%         Steve Mura         Jim Dorsey   Brian Boehringer
Matt Harrison     SP      9%   48%   43%        Lee Tunnell    Scott Sauerbeck      Randy Niemann
Michael Kirkman   SP      8%   50%   42%      Trevor Wilson     Jesus Martinez        Bryan Clark
Warner Madrigal   RP      4%   30%   65%      Jeff Plympton         Paul Boris         Jack Hardy
Tanner Scheppers  RP      3%   34%   63%      Josh Wahpepah    Manny Delcarmen          Scott Dye
Robert Ross       SP      2%   29%   69%         Jeff Mutis        Wes Whisler       Jake Chapman
Guillermo Moscoso SP      1%   24%   75%         Andy Ashby        Sun-Woo Kim       Tyler Walker
Ben Snyder        RP      0%   10%   90%        Steve Kline      Ben Kozlowski      Scott Wiggins
Doug Mathis       SP      0%    7%   92%    Jeff Farnsworth      Juan Sandoval        Jim Magrane
Travis Chick      SP      1%   16%   83%      Travis Hughes        Andy Larkin           Ben Ford
Ryan Tucker       SP      0%    9%   90%          Tim Byron        Ricky Steik        Eric Parent
Mark Hamburger    RP      0%    9%   91%        Brandy Vann       Paul Abraham        Rick Krivda
Kasey Kiker       SP      1%   16%   83%       Sam McDowell         Mike Potts        Bryan Clark
Wilfredo Boscan   SP      0%    6%   94%        Jason Jones       Paul Quinzer         Fredy Deza
Martin Perez      SP      0%    5%   95%         Matt Riley       Carlos Perez   Mark Brandenburg
Michael Ballard   SP      0%    4%   96%     Craig Anderson     Heath Phillips        Eric Stults
Wilmer Font       SP      0%    6%   94%     Jason Phillips       Darryl Banks     Jeremy Accardo

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Josh Hamilton           59%      39%      72%       4%       2%      26%      36%       1%
Nelson Cruz             26%      21%      71%       1%       1%      42%      30%       8%
Ian Kinsler             24%      29%      21%       1%       2%       6%      10%      24%
Vladimir Guerrero       39%      12%      34%       0%       0%      16%      10%       0%
David Murphy            19%      10%      11%       1%       1%       1%       3%       1%
Michael Young           27%       6%      10%       7%       1%       6%       3%       0%
Mitch Moreland           8%       6%       5%      11%       0%       4%       1%       0%
Jorge Cantu             11%       2%       6%       7%       0%       3%       1%       0%
Julio Borbon            30%       3%       1%       0%      11%       0%       0%      66%
Jeff Francoeur           6%       0%       3%       2%       2%       3%       0%       0%
Chris Davis              2%       1%       2%      14%       0%       4%       0%       0%
Elvis Andrus             9%      12%       0%       0%      14%       0%       0%      71%
Cristian Guzman         20%       1%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%       0%
Chad S. Tracy            0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%
Bengie Molina            6%       0%       2%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Chris McGuinness         1%       7%       1%       0%       0%       2%       1%       0%
Max Ramirez              2%       4%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Esteban German           2%       4%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Andres Blanco           15%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brandon Boggs            0%       3%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Craig Gentry             2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       8%
Hernan Iribarren         4%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       2%
Engel Beltre             5%       0%       1%       0%      22%       0%       0%      11%
Matthew Brown            0%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Davis Stoneburner        0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Matt Treanor             1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Taylor Teagarden         0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Gregorio Petit           0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Willy Taveras            0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%      40%
Kevin Richardson         0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Neftali Feliz             79%        99%        92%         8%        82%
Alexi Ogando              72%        98%        86%         0%        79%
Darren O'Day              69%        98%        28%        30%        77%
Cliff Lee                 69%        99%        22%       100%        92%
Frank Francisco           60%        95%        97%         5%        60%
Buzz Oliver               60%        93%        52%        23%        77%
Colby Lewis               38%        94%        82%        15%        45%
C.J. Wilson               31%        90%        45%         0%        87%
Rich Harden               19%        74%        90%         0%        29%
Clay Rapada               22%        73%        20%         0%        83%
Mark Lowe                 16%        54%        34%         2%        51%
Zach Phillips             11%        58%         7%         0%        88%
Derek Holland              6%        54%        24%         1%        24%
Scott Feldman              1%        40%         0%         2%        44%
Pedro Strop                8%        48%        44%         0%        67%
Brandon McCarthy           6%        39%         2%         4%        24%
Tommy Hunter               2%        38%         0%         4%        19%
Omar Beltre                4%        36%        15%         0%        76%
Dustin Nippert             3%        36%         8%         0%        41%
Matt Harrison              1%        24%         1%         0%        42%
Michael Kirkman            1%        21%         3%         0%        52%
Warner Madrigal            3%        28%         4%         1%        17%
Tanner Scheppers           2%        31%        29%         0%        48%
Robert Ross                0%         9%         0%         0%        65%
Guillermo Moscoso          0%         6%         2%         0%        12%
Ben Snyder                 0%         4%         0%         0%        20%
Doug Mathis                0%         5%         0%         1%        25%
Travis Chick               0%         5%         0%         0%        36%
Ryan Tucker                0%         5%         0%         0%        65%
Mark Hamburger             0%         5%         0%         0%        31%
Kasey Kiker                0%         4%        11%         0%        47%
Wilfredo Boscan            0%         1%         0%         1%        14%
Martin Perez               0%         1%         1%         0%        24%
Michael Ballard            0%         0%         0%         3%        10%
Wilmer Font                0%         1%         3%         0%        28%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 09, 2010 at 10:24 PM | 43 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Frisco Cali Posted: November 09, 2010 at 10:49 PM (#3686949)
I'm willing to bet that if vlad reaches his career hits projection, he will find a way to get 12 more.
   2. Moe Greene Posted: November 09, 2010 at 10:55 PM (#3686956)
This is curious: Josh Hamilton's #1 comp is Terry McGriff.

Things Josh Hamilton and Terry McGriff have in common:
- Both played for the Reds
- Neither have been in my kitchen before
   3. DCA Posted: November 09, 2010 at 10:59 PM (#3686963)
I like how Max Ramirez is his own best comp
   4. RJ in TO Posted: November 09, 2010 at 11:06 PM (#3686969)
ZiPS really does not see a long future for Young. Only about 2 more seasons worth of regular playing time before retirement.
   5. JJ1986 Posted: November 09, 2010 at 11:11 PM (#3686974)
Davis Stoneburner


Pretty cool name.
   6. BDC Posted: November 09, 2010 at 11:15 PM (#3686976)
Fred McGriff would make a little more sense for Hamilton, though he was much more of a take-and-rake hitter. He was about as good, though. As I've said before, the guy Hamilton has always reminded me of, well before they were teammates, is a LHB version of Vladimir Guerrero – not in mannerisms but in tactical approach at the plate, and results.
   7. Moe Greene Posted: November 09, 2010 at 11:17 PM (#3686978)
ZiPS really does not see a long future for Young. Only about 2 more seasons worth of regular playing time before retirement.

ZiPS also does not see a long future for Molina, given his #1 comp...
   8. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 09, 2010 at 11:27 PM (#3686983)
Davis Stoneburner
His brother Graham is a pretty decent prospect for the Yankees.

Seeing a good team after the last few is a bit of a shock to the senses.

Man, there's several nice free talent grabs on that pitching staff.
   9. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 09, 2010 at 11:38 PM (#3686989)
It was a complete botched copy-and-paste - Edmonds is his top comp. When I saw that Max Ramirez's top comp was Maximiliano Rivera (ZiPS is instructed to not include the player himself as one of their comps), I went to type in the 2/3/4 guys. I got two of them right, but Terry McGriff, Ramirez's actual number 1 comp, got pasted over Hamilton's top comp.
   10. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 09, 2010 at 11:39 PM (#3686990)
I suspect that the Terry McGriff comp for Josh Hamilton is a mistake and that Dan actually did mean Fred.

George Altman was a heck of a player; he had the misfortune to be stuck in a Cubs' system in an environment that really didn't encourage the development of minority players during the '50s. He had a long career in Japan after leaving MLB.

Nelson Cruz does remind me a lot of Richard Hidalgo, now that I think about it.

-- MWE

Edit: Now I see #9.
   11. a bebop a rebop Posted: November 09, 2010 at 11:43 PM (#3686993)
I certainly hope Feliz-as-starter hasn't been given up on. What would he project in that role, Dan?
   12. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 10, 2010 at 12:11 AM (#3687009)
12-6, 3.43 for Feliz as starter.
   13. monkhenry Posted: November 10, 2010 at 12:21 AM (#3687014)
Any projection possible for Mark Prior ?
   14. Famous Original Joe C Posted: November 10, 2010 at 12:21 AM (#3687015)
Any projection possible for Mark Prior ?

0-0, 0.00?
   15. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 10, 2010 at 12:23 AM (#3687016)
Just out of fun, Josh Hamilton's most dissimilar player in my database is Tom Nieto in the mid-80s.
   16. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 10, 2010 at 12:37 AM (#3687020)
Any projection possible for Mark Prior ?

We're going to hell now, but Prior's up. It's a bit optimistic on the playing time.
   17. Moe Greene Posted: November 10, 2010 at 12:41 AM (#3687023)
If you were willing to do a projection for Mark Prior... can you do a projection for me?

Thanks in advance.
   18. Frisco Cali Posted: November 10, 2010 at 01:09 AM (#3687042)
Just out of fun, Josh Hamilton's most dissimilar player in my database is Tom Nieto in the mid-80s.

And Nieto also happens to be the most similar to Edinson Volquez.
   19. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 10, 2010 at 01:29 AM (#3687049)
If you were willing to do a projection for Mark Prior... can you do a projection for me?


2011 ZiPS Projection - Moe Greene
------------------------------------
Buyouts - 1
Bullets to the Eye - 1
Blood - Insanely thin and not the right color
   20. The District Attorney Posted: November 10, 2010 at 02:07 AM (#3687067)
You do not come to the Transaction Oracle and talk to a man like Moe Greene like that!
   21. Willie Mayspedester Posted: November 10, 2010 at 02:10 AM (#3687071)
Just out of fun, Josh Hamilton's most dissimilar player in my database is Tom Nieto in the mid-80s.


That's really neat-o.
   22. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: November 10, 2010 at 02:28 AM (#3687082)
Interesting comps for Lee. He's going to get loads of money this winter to go with sky high expectations, but I don't think anyone ever thought of Smiley, Fassero, or even Pettitte as a #1 rotation anchor type.
   23. Accent Shallow Posted: November 10, 2010 at 02:57 AM (#3687097)
Cliff Lee is 100% to have a BB/9 <2?

Are you sure?
   24. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili(Teddy F. Ballgame) Posted: November 10, 2010 at 03:18 AM (#3687105)
In re Vlad Guerrero: Andy Pafko?
   25. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: November 10, 2010 at 03:27 AM (#3687110)
It makes more sense once you think about it, but I thought it was a mistake to have the Rangers up already given the low-to-high payroll method.
   26. a bebop a rebop Posted: November 10, 2010 at 04:02 AM (#3687121)
12-6, 3.43 for Feliz as starter.

Well, ####, start getting Ogando ready for closer. Thanks.
   27. John DiFool2 Posted: November 10, 2010 at 04:08 AM (#3687126)
0-0, 0.00


30 starts, 30 no-decisions, 0 runs scored while he was on the mound?
   28. Walt Davis Posted: November 10, 2010 at 09:22 AM (#3687202)
Great depth among the starters. I know Lee probably won't be back and Harden can't be counted on (and may not be back with them) but they've still got 9 starters above replacement level ... and that doesn't include Feliz. I wonder what they can get for Feldman or McCarthy.
   29. Ron J Posted: November 10, 2010 at 12:51 PM (#3687212)
Dan, if you're willing to do Prior how about Brien Taylor and Steve Dalkowski?
   30. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: November 10, 2010 at 01:28 PM (#3687217)
Hamilton has me wondering something. How much of a hitter's typical post-30 breakdown is cumulative wear-and-tear, and how much of it is simply that the human body starts to lose the ability to recover after a certain age? Put another way, is an elite player who doesn't play for a few years in his early 20s less likely to break down than a regular guy with a regular career path? I'm not sure Hamilton's the right guy to test this hypothesis, given that he spent the time off as a junkie. Just something I wonder about.
   31. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 10, 2010 at 01:57 PM (#3687226)
This offense looks pretty ordinary. One day I hope the A's have an ordinary offense.
   32. Travolta19 Posted: November 10, 2010 at 03:01 PM (#3687242)
Hamilton has me wondering something. How much of a hitter's typical post-30 breakdown is cumulative wear-and-tear, and how much of it is simply that the human body starts to lose the ability to recover after a certain age? Put another way, is an elite player who doesn't play for a few years in his early 20s less likely to break down than a regular guy with a regular career path? I'm not sure Hamilton's the right guy to test this hypothesis, given that he spent the time off as a junkie. Just something I wonder about.


I've often thought about that in the past too. Hamilton is a tough case because of the drug abuse. Who knows how that affects an athlete after they've stopped? Obviously, not much so far. In football, the quick demise of running backs can often be traced to usage, similar to the Verducci effect for pitchers in baseball. These things would seem to point to an element of usage/abuse/physical toll experienced in a player's shelf life. There's definitely an element of age factoring into the equation as well though. While there are always exceptions (Moyer, George Blanda, etc), general trends point to physical prime at 27-31 or so in baseball. Football seems to have an earlier peak, but I think that may have a much more harsh "physical toll" factor than baseball. Anyway, good thought Voxter. I wonder if there have been any studies researching this in depth.
   33. Russ Posted: November 10, 2010 at 03:09 PM (#3687250)
In baseball, I think the learning curve is also important. Although there is wear and tear on a player, the longer he faces major league pitching, the longer he has to figure out major league pitching. I always thought that the learning contribution always increased "talent" or "overall ability", while the aging effect was quadratic (helps when younger until the physical peak, then begins to degrade). My impression would be that someone who was not in the major leagues at a young age would be at a disadvantage because they would be missing out on that experience (and I always figured that the learning advantage and generic aging principles would far outweigh saving the physical toll from those early years).
   34. Charlie O Posted: November 10, 2010 at 07:11 PM (#3687456)
Dan, I'm not sure I get the Badfinger reference. Are you saying Washington managed the Rangers' bullpen worse than Stan Polley managed Badfinger? In that case, I get it. If you're saying Washington's work was worse than Badfinger's, then I don't get it. I thought they were one of the better power pop bands of their time with a pretty solid string of catchy hits.
   35. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 10, 2010 at 07:30 PM (#3687479)
I re-phrased it to hopefully make it clearer.
   36. Charlie O Posted: November 10, 2010 at 08:20 PM (#3687525)
Thanks, Dan. Now it's clear -- and a pretty good comparison. Hopeflly not the point that the Rainger' relievers start killing themselves, though.
   37. Spivey Posted: November 10, 2010 at 08:26 PM (#3687530)
It will be interesting to see what the Rangers do with DH. I wouldn't be opposed to just getting a couple of righthanded pieces of a platoon and running out Hamilton/Cruz/Murphy/Borbon for the OF+DH spots.

Of course, what they should consider doing is playing Michael Young at DH and trying to pick up a solid fielding and decent, if unspectacular, hitting 3B. I don't expect that will happen though, and I'm not that aware of the available 3B.

I'd be fine with Berkman at the DH slot as well, if we can get him on the cheap.
   38. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: November 11, 2010 at 12:02 AM (#3687704)
I'll give you a Headley for your Borbon.
   39. Alex_Lewis Posted: November 11, 2010 at 12:26 AM (#3687717)
I'm not sure Hamilton's the right guy to test this hypothesis, given that he spent the time off as a junkie.


I'm pretty sure Andres Torres didn't get into baseball or anything other than running, really, until after high school.
   40. Travolta19 Posted: November 11, 2010 at 03:02 AM (#3687820)
I'll give you a Headley for your Borbon.


I would take that any day of the week, as far as baseball is concerned.
   41. Travolta19 Posted: November 12, 2010 at 12:58 PM (#3688686)
Dan, any thoughts/projections for Eric Hurley?
   42. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: November 12, 2010 at 09:23 PM (#3689015)
So ZiPS sees Andrus more or less as the next Omar Vizquel.
   43. HGM Posted: February 25, 2011 at 05:19 PM (#3758071)
Buzz Oliver? Never heard that nickname for Darren before

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