2011 ZiPS Projections - Toronto Blue Jays
All in all, 2010 was a pleasant surprise for the Jays. The team, short of Roy Halladay for the first time in a decade, managed to patch together enough pitching to be able to take advantage of the ultimate pleasant surprise, Jose Bautista, who went from a 4th outfielder type who could kinda fake third base to hitting 54 home runs, tied for 19th in the history of baseball.
Despite the positive record, the team does have a bit of work to do. While the starting pitching probably performed to expectations and shouldn’t fall off too much, some of the team’s best relievers are unsigned (though shouldn’t be too expensive) and the organization’s kind of thin in quality relief pitching. The problem with the Jays doing what the Rays have done is simply that they don’t have the farm system for it - it’s not really Alex Anthopoulos’s fault since he took over a year ago and the prospects received in the Halladay trade are what keep the Jays from scraping barnacles in the farm rankings.
The team will also have to figure out just what to do with Bautista - figuring out the proper value for him is a task that I don’t envy. Of course, having a 2010 Bautista that you’re not sure how to value is a lot better than a 2009 Bautista that you know just what to pay.
The AL East is a tough division to keep in and I’m slowly coming around to a salary cap. Don’t get me wrong, I mostly would now prefer a salary cap as opposed to the mess of a revenue-sharing system we have now - the players are getting screwed anyway and there’s essentially a salary cap anyway for 28 or 29 teams, but a salary cap in return for less revenue-sharing might at least get the players back to the historical pot share and increase the investment incentive.
But that’s an article for another time. The Jays need some creative thinking and while Double-A has done some things I disagree with (Taylor Buchholz for instance, should not have hit waivers with so much uncertainty in the Jays pen), there has been some thinking outside of the box, most notably the clever move to acquire Miguel Olivo days before free agency in order to receive a compensation pick.
Honestly, this is probably a .500 team. The Jays would compete in the NL Central or NL West, but this is a tough division. The Jays have tread water for too long that 85 wins is probably the short-term high-water mark, though the organization is far from hopeless.
Next up: Tampa Bay
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Batting Projections
Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
Jose Bautista R RF 30 .249 .362 .524 137 450 77 112 24 2 32 84 76 107 6 1 135
Adam Lind L DH 27 .269 .321 .471 154 580 72 156 36 3 25 92 42 128 1 1 109
Travis Snider L LF 23 .260 .320 .465 131 469 60 122 28 1 22 61 40 135 7 5 108
Vernon Wells R CF 32 .265 .318 .451 146 565 73 150 36 3 21 77 44 78 9 4 104
Lyle Overbay L 1B 34 .244 .336 .423 133 454 59 111 29 2 16 58 62 107 1 0 102
Aaron Hill R 2B 29 .257 .312 .444 131 518 70 133 28 0 23 73 38 78 4 2 100
Fred Lewis L LF 30 .255 .334 .406 121 404 67 103 25 6 8 37 43 107 15 6 98
Rajai Davis R CF 30 .273 .318 .380 137 432 64 120 24 4 6 46 25 68 41 11 91
Yunel Escobar R SS 28 .268 .345 .381 144 533 72 143 25 1 11 55 56 71 5 4 95
Mike Jacobs L 1B 30 .232 .289 .453 128 470 62 109 22 2 26 80 39 123 1 0 96
Randy Ruiz R DH 33 .248 .301 .423 84 319 38 79 18 1 12 30 20 93 1 1 92
Jarrett Hoffpauir R 2B 28 .249 .318 .386 121 438 48 109 24 3 10 48 44 47 4 3 88
Eric Thames L LF 24 .236 .307 .402 149 584 77 138 25 6 20 84 46 173 7 5 89
Dewayne Wise L CF 33 .243 .286 .410 91 239 33 58 12 5 6 23 12 55 8 4 84
J. P. Arencibia R C 25 .230 .273 .432 135 539 63 124 32 1 25 80 31 142 0 0 86
Brad Emaus R 3B 25 .238 .314 .364 147 558 69 133 30 2 12 65 61 98 9 3 82
Miguel Olivo R C 32 .228 .270 .413 106 373 44 85 15 3 16 55 19 122 6 3 80
Darin Mastroianni R CF 25 .246 .316 .309 134 524 75 129 19 4 2 36 52 121 37 10 69
Brian Dopirak R DH 27 .238 .279 .392 119 474 46 113 26 1 15 62 25 125 1 2 78
David Cooper L 1B 24 .234 .291 .367 137 531 50 124 30 1 13 65 43 111 0 0 76
Aaron Mathews R LF 29 .250 .289 .359 102 404 42 101 19 2 7 43 22 67 2 1 73
Mike McCoy R SS 30 .231 .312 .317 110 350 48 81 14 2 4 29 42 69 17 5 70
Chris Lubanski L LF 26 .219 .277 .376 95 343 43 75 16 4 10 43 29 108 5 2 73
Jesus Merchan R SS 30 .255 .296 .343 66 251 23 64 12 2 2 21 11 30 2 2 71
Moises Sierra R RF 22 .243 .295 .344 80 305 31 74 14 1 5 39 17 71 5 3 71
Manny Mayorson R SS 28 .252 .289 .324 111 408 44 103 21 1 2 30 20 32 14 4 64
John McDonald R 2B 36 .241 .264 .371 73 170 22 41 8 1 4 19 5 25 2 1 68
Jason Lane R LF 34 .213 .289 .362 97 362 44 77 19 1 11 42 36 80 2 3 74
Travis d’Arnaud R C 22 .231 .280 .357 108 415 43 96 23 1 9 46 26 92 4 4 70
Shawn Bowman R 3B 26 .224 .270 .365 100 392 40 88 20 1 11 40 22 128 1 2 69
Brian Jeroloman R C 26 .204 .315 .301 102 339 31 69 15 0 6 31 54 131 0 0 67
Jose Molina R C 36 .220 .273 .312 62 173 15 38 7 0 3 13 9 40 1 0 57
Adeiny HechavarriaR SS 22 .232 .259 .313 125 512 59 119 21 4 4 41 18 93 13 3 53
Adam Calderone L RF 27 .207 .256 .346 117 445 47 92 21 4 11 45 26 130 6 7 60
Callix Crabbe B 2B 28 .206 .286 .288 102 344 44 71 13 3 3 27 36 74 10 6 55
Defensive Projections
Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF
Jose Bautista AV/112 PO/114 FR/86 FR/79 PO/113 FR/79
Adam Lind FR/110 PO/56
Travis Snider AV/191 FR/123
Vernon Wells FR/54
Lyle Overbay AV/63
Aaron Hill AV/74
Fred Lewis AV/157 FR/189 FR/157
Rajai Davis VG/112 AV/110 VG/112
Yunel Escobar AV/93
Mike Jacobs FR/195
Randy Ruiz FR/187
Jarrett Hoffpauir AV/145 AV/119 FR/124
Eric Thames FR/168
Dewayne Wise VG/127 VG/80 VG/67
J. P. Arencibia FR
Brad Emaus AV/115 AV/140
Miguel Olivo VG
Darin Mastroianni VG/121 AV/143
Brian Dopirak AV/217 FR/151
David Cooper FR/111
Aaron Mathews AV/104 FR/118 AV/104
Mike McCoy AV/124 AV/107 AV/116 AV/126 FR/122 AV/108
Chris Lubanski AV/120 FR/120
Jesus Merchan VG/164 AV/149
Moises Sierra VG/267
Manny Mayorson AV/111 FR/117 AV/116 FR/120
John McDonald VG/107 AV/122 AV/104 AV/113
Jason Lane FR/119 Fr/114 FR/111
Travis d’Arnaud AV
Shawn Bowman AV/82
Brian Jeroloman AV
Jose Molina VG
Adeiny Hechavarria AV/131
Adam Calderone VG/115 AV/97 VG/115
Callix Crabbe AV/176 AV/114 FR/155 AV/97 AV/114 AV/111
Pitching Projections - Starters
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Shaun Marcum R 29 3.79 9 6 23 23 137.7 131 58 17 35 118 115
Brandon Morrow R 26 4.04 11 8 28 28 149.3 133 67 16 72 162 108
Ricky Romero L 26 4.15 14 10 34 34 212.7 210 98 20 87 180 105
Dustin McGowan R 29 4.41 5 5 14 14 79.7 83 39 8 29 62 99
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96
Brett Cecil L 24 4.65 10 10 29 29 155.0 167 80 18 57 115 94
Kyle Drabek R 23 4.97 10 12 28 27 157.7 167 87 18 81 109 88
Shawn Hill R 30 4.99 3 3 8 8 39.7 47 22 4 12 23 87
Jesse Litsch R 26 5.12 5 6 16 16 89.7 103 51 13 24 49 85
Zach Stewart R 24 5.15 4 5 29 22 120.7 139 69 13 55 92 85
Marc Rzepczynski L 25 5.55 7 10 25 24 123.3 144 76 15 64 99 79
Brad Mills L 26 5.91 5 9 23 22 115.7 133 76 19 62 88 74
Scott Richmond R 31 5.93 5 8 19 17 91.0 105 60 19 37 69 73
Jo-Jo Reyes L 26 6.02 4 7 21 19 92.7 109 62 16 42 68 72
Randy Boone R 26 6.25 6 11 26 23 125.3 167 87 16 56 64 70
Rey Gonzalez R 25 6.42 5 11 24 23 115.0 145 82 17 50 54 68
Robert Ray R 27 6.55 4 8 19 18 90.7 119 66 15 43 53 66
Luis Perez L 26 6.70 6 14 29 27 141.0 186 105 18 94 78 65
Lance Broadway R 27 7.18 4 11 32 20 135.3 193 108 21 72 69 61
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Scott Downs L 35 3.42 4 2 59 0 55.3 51 21 5 17 48 127
Jason Frasor R 33 3.83 4 3 60 0 56.3 51 24 6 24 56 114
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Shawn Camp R 35 4.06 4 3 58 0 64.3 65 29 7 19 47 107
Kevin Gregg R 33 4.06 6 4 66 0 62.0 55 28 7 30 63 107
Casey Janssen R 29 4.25 4 3 60 0 65.7 69 31 7 21 52 102
Jesse Carlson L 30 4.60 3 3 67 0 62.7 65 32 8 20 48 95
David Purcey L 29 4.81 3 3 70 0 73.0 70 39 9 45 69 91
Josh Roenicke R 28 5.06 3 4 55 0 69.3 74 39 8 36 62 86
Danny Farquhar R 24 5.32 3 4 56 0 66.0 62 39 9 56 60 82
Jeremy Accardo R 29 5.32 2 3 46 0 45.7 55 27 5 20 26 82
Jason Lane L 34 5.40 0 0 3 0 3.3 3 2 0 1 2 81
Steven Register R 28 5.94 2 4 56 0 72.7 90 48 11 30 44 73
Sean Henn L 30 6.16 2 3 37 4 64.3 79 44 8 43 43 71
Merkin Valdez R 29 6.19 2 3 39 1 48.0 63 33 6 25 29 70
Rommie Lewis L 28 6.42 3 5 42 5 67.3 87 48 10 36 45 68
Clint Everts R 26 6.68 2 5 43 2 67.3 83 50 10 52 52 65
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+
Vernon Wells .271 .321 .455 2101 8228 1114 2229 499 43 310 1155 598 1091 126 103
Travis Snider .255 .321 .457 2038 7186 909 1832 442 17 325 906 685 1941 106 106
Yunel Escobar .269 .342 .380 1711 6374 850 1712 286 14 131 660 640 738 57 93
Jose Bautista .239 .341 .464 1701 5546 829 1328 291 25 301 858 802 1201 58 113
Adam Lind .263 .315 .455 1606 6011 734 1578 364 27 247 902 442 1235 12 104
Aaron Hill .260 .314 .423 1601 6233 815 1619 339 8 220 805 444 855 47 94
Lyle Overbay .265 .348 .436 1576 5409 707 1431 381 16 171 709 693 1130 17 106
Fred Lewis .260 .335 .403 986 3207 531 833 196 44 58 281 327 783 108 96
Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
Ricky Romero 156 120 0 4.21 382 383 2408 2379 1126 245 1017 2080 104
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
Jose Bautista RF 61% 25% 8% 4% 2% Tom Brunansky Dwight Evans Roy Sievers
Adam Lind DH 6% 21% 22% 31% 19% Larry Sheets Chad Tracy Willie Montanez
Travis Snider LF 11% 22% 18% 20% 28% David Ortiz Nelson Simmons Lee Stevens
Vernon Wells CF 20% 20% 28% 22% 10% Sam Mele Jackie Brandt Del Ennis
Lyle Overbay 1B 3% 12% 16% 34% 35% Ron Santo Lee Stevens J.T. Snow
Aaron Hill 2B 23% 17% 19% 22% 19% Joe Crede Eric McNair David Bell
Fred Lewis LF 3% 12% 17% 27% 41% Al BumbryClaudell Washington John Rodriguez
Rajai Davis CF 16% 21% 30% 22% 11% Willie McGee Doug Glanville Willie Wilson
Yunel Escobar SS 16% 20% 29% 22% 12% Bob Aspromonte Scott Fletcher Dave Chalk
Mike Jacobs 1B 2% 7% 11% 31% 49% Ivan Cruz Nate Gold J.R. Phillips
Randy Ruiz DH 1% 5% 9% 28% 58% Mike Blowers Jerry Martin Walt Dropo
Jarrett Hoffpauir 2B 7% 8% 14% 26% 45% Steve Lombardozzi Joe Dillon Rico Rossy
Eric Thames LF 2% 5% 8% 16% 69% Mike Patterson Mike Berger Lloyd Moseby
Dewayne Wise CF 6% 6% 15% 27% 46% Tommy McCraw Dave Roberts Michael Tucker
J. P. Arencibia C 4% 17% 24% 31% 24% J.P. Arencibia Mike Fitzgerald Joe Oliver
Brad Emaus 3B 1% 5% 10% 21% 64% Garrett Atkins Paul Janish Mark Kiger
Miguel Olivo C 3% 12% 20% 32% 34% Jim Hegan Jason LaRue Mike Heath
Darin Mastroianni CF 1% 2% 9% 26% 61% Curtis Goodwin Joey Gathright Gary Thurman
Brian Dopirak DH 0% 0% 1% 7% 92% Charley Carter Danny Matienzo Chad Santos
David Cooper 1B 0% 0% 1% 6% 92% Jose Birriel Randy Jorgensen Travis Hinton
Aaron Mathews LF 0% 0% 0% 2% 97% Jeff Schulz Pat Watkins Chan Perry
Mike McCoy SS 4% 6% 16% 28% 47% Mark Belanger Tim Barker Cesar Crespo
Chris Lubanski LF 0% 1% 2% 5% 92% Emmitt Cohick Jon Hamilton Justin Bowles
Jesus Merchan SS 1% 2% 8% 20% 69% Robert Eenhoorn Alvaro Espinoza Bien Figueroa
Moises Sierra RF 0% 1% 1% 3% 94% Rex Hudler Dan Winters Greg Pirkl
Manny Mayorson SS 0% 1% 5% 16% 77% Rey Sanchez Andy Cannizaro Bobby Bonner
John McDonald 2B 3% 1% 2% 6% 88% Juan Castro Billy Martin Miguel Cairo
Jason Lane LF 0% 1% 1% 4% 95% Damon Buford Chad Mottola Mark Smith
Travis d’Arnaud C 2% 3% 6% 17% 72% Neil Wilson Pete Beeler Ryan Christianson
Shawn Bowman 3B 0% 1% 2% 4% 93% Aaron Herr Glenn Williams Chad Spann
Brian Jeroloman C 1% 2% 4% 16% 77% John Gibbons Dan WhitmerMaximiliano Ramirez
Jose Molina C 0% 1% 2% 8% 88% Raul Chavez Elston Howard Joe Oliver
Adeiny HechavarriaSS 0% 1% 3% 7% 90% Tony Rodriguez Audy Ciriaco Eduardo Nunez
Adam Calderone RF 0% 0% 0% 0% 99% Richie Robnett Justin Bowles Todd Dunwoody
Callix Crabbe 2B 0% 0% 0% 1% 98% Gary Miller-Jones Jon Schuerholz Doug Baker
Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3
Scott Downs RP 54% 39% 7% Gary Lavelle Tug McGraw Greg Swindell
Shaun Marcum SP 60% 37% 4% Alex Fernandez Scott Sanderson Pascual Perez
Jason Frasor RP 33% 50% 16% Curt Leskanic Juan Berenguer Jeff Nelson
Taylor Buchholz RP 29% 48% 23% Rich Monteleone Gene Nelson Geoff Geary
Brandon Morrow SP 48% 46% 6% Jose DeLeon Juan Guzman Kerry Wood
Shawn Camp RP 21% 53% 26% Ted Wilks Joe Slusarski Rick White
Kevin Gregg RP 20% 55% 24% Jose DeLeon Tim Stoddard Rich DeLucia
Ricky Romero SP 37% 58% 5% Danny Jackson Shawn Estes Chris Nabholz
Casey Janssen RP 18% 54% 28% Robbie Crabtree Larry Andersen John Habyan
Dustin McGowan SP 31% 46% 23% Rick Rhoden Mike Witt Joey Hamilton
Jesse Carlson RP 11% 41% 48% Graeme Lloyd Mike Magnante Erasmo Ramirez
Brett Cecil SP 13% 60% 27% Bud Smith Steve Trout Allen Watson
David Purcey RP 5% 38% 57% Armando Almanza Matt Thornton Ricky Pickett
Kyle Drabek SP 6% 45% 50% Charlie Haeger J.D. Durbin Jimmy Jones
Shawn Hill SP 18% 30% 52% Scott Erickson Sidney Ponson Heath Totten
Josh Roenicke RP 2% 28% 70% Roberto Giron Roy Corcoran Courtney Duncan
Jesse Litsch SP 8% 38% 54% Brian Meadows Dave Eiland Josh Towers
Zach Stewart SP 4% 34% 62% Julian Tavarez Jimmy Haynes Joey Hamilton
Danny Farquhar RP 1% 17% 81% Brad Voyles Ted Langdon Dave Shipanoff
Jeremy Accardo RP 4% 22% 74% Rick Lysander Andy Mitchell Jose Santiago
Jason Lane RP 47% 0% 53% Kevin Hickey Vic Darensbourg Mike Mohler
Marc Rzepczynski SP 1% 19% 81% Brandon Claussen C.J. Nitkowski Ken Vining
Brad Mills SP 0% 10% 90% Lindsay Gulin Mark Redman Dave Stewart
Scott Richmond SP 0% 10% 89% Jackson Todd Nerio Rodriguez Jeremy Cummings
Steven Register RP 0% 7% 93% Aaron Small Bryan Corey Nick McCurdy
Jo-Jo Reyes SP 0% 11% 89% Travis Miller Greg Miller Brian McNichol
Sean Henn RP 0% 3% 97% James Wray Mark Watson Tim Adkins
Merkin Valdez RP 0% 5% 94% Andy Mitchell Mike Bumstead Jose Segura
Randy Boone SP 0% 3% 97% Marcus Jones Mickey Callaway Bill Swift
Rommie Lewis RP 0% 2% 98% Matt Perisho Dennis Powell Matt White
Rey Gonzalez SP 0% 2% 98% Andy Taulbee Denny Wagner Rick Steirer
B.J. LaMura SP 0% 2% 98% Chris Hook Michael Johnson Chris Fussell
Robert Ray SP 0% 2% 98% Edward Valdez Brian Rogers Matt Saier
Clint Everts RP 0% 1% 99% Tim Meeks Rick Greene Dilson Torres
Luis Perez SP 0% 0% 100% Mike Wodnicki Greg Kubes Carlos Perez
Lance Broadway SP 0% 0% 100% Lee Rodney Chris Enochs Steven Jackson
Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB
Jose Bautista 3% 32% 68% 0% 1% 61% 39% 0%
Adam Lind 8% 2% 23% 13% 2% 27% 4% 0%
Travis Snider 5% 3% 27% 1% 0% 16% 5% 1%
Vernon Wells 7% 2% 12% 14% 2% 9% 2% 2%
Lyle Overbay 1% 8% 5% 1% 1% 2% 2% 0%
Aaron Hill 4% 1% 11% 2% 0% 15% 1% 0%
Fred Lewis 4% 6% 1% 0% 10% 0% 0% 2%
Rajai Davis 21% 3% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 81%
Yunel Escobar 10% 14% 3% 1% 0% 2% 2% 0%
Mike Jacobs 0% 0% 13% 0% 1% 26% 2% 0%
Randy Ruiz 3% 1% 6% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Jarrett Hoffpauir 2% 2% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0%
Eric Thames 0% 1% 2% 0% 12% 10% 0% 0%
Dewayne Wise 4% 0% 7% 0% 7% 0% 1% 0%
J. P. Arencibia 0% 0% 6% 5% 0% 25% 0% 0%
Brad Emaus 0% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0% 1%
Miguel Olivo 0% 0% 4% 0% 2% 1% 1% 0%
Darin Mastroianni 1% 2% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 80%
Brian Dopirak 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
David Cooper 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Aaron Mathews 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Mike McCoy 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6%
Chris Lubanski 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Jesus Merchan 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Moises Sierra 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Manny Mayorson 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4%
John McDonald 5% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Jason Lane 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Travis d’Arnaud 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Shawn Bowman 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Brian Jeroloman 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jose Molina 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Adeiny Hechavarria 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 3%
Adam Calderone 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Callix Crabbe 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1
Scott Downs 46% 90% 40% 16% 78%
Shaun Marcum 23% 81% 38% 32% 42%
Jason Frasor 26% 78% 80% 1% 69%
Taylor Buchholz 22% 70% 35% 9% 48%
Brandon Morrow 13% 75% 93% 0% 62%
Shawn Camp 21% 68% 7% 14% 61%
Kevin Gregg 20% 70% 82% 0% 60%
Ricky Romero 7% 70% 30% 0% 80%
Casey Janssen 14% 66% 15% 11% 62%
Dustin McGowan 7% 49% 15% 2% 73%
Jesse Carlson 7% 45% 10% 11% 40%
Brett Cecil 2% 35% 5% 1% 47%
David Purcey 4% 31% 65% 0% 47%
Kyle Drabek 1% 17% 2% 0% 58%
Shawn Hill 6% 32% 3% 23% 56%
Josh Roenicke 2% 19% 48% 0% 57%
Jesse Litsch 2% 19% 0% 27% 26%
Zach Stewart 0% 12% 4% 0% 58%
Danny Farquhar 1% 15% 48% 0% 38%
Jeremy Accardo 4% 20% 2% 3% 69%
Jason Lane 47% 47% 20% 59% 64%
Marc Rzepczynski 0% 5% 16% 0% 46%
Brad Mills 0% 2% 7% 0% 14%
Scott Richmond 0% 2% 8% 0% 2%
Steven Register 0% 3% 0% 0% 24%
Jo-Jo Reyes 0% 2% 5% 0% 8%
Sean Henn 0% 2% 2% 0% 46%
Merkin Valdez 0% 4% 1% 0% 47%
Randy Boone 0% 0% 0% 0% 36%
Rommie Lewis 0% 1% 1% 0% 38%
Rey Gonzalez 0% 0% 0% 0% 23%
B.J. LaMura 0% 1% 6% 0% 11%
Robert Ray 0% 0% 0% 0% 13%
Clint Everts 0% 0% 10% 0% 26%
Luis Perez 0% 0% 0% 0% 39%
Lance Broadway 0% 0% 0% 0% 15%
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 20, 2010 at 05:48 PM |
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1. jfish26101 Posted: November 20, 2010 at 06:15 PM (#3694282)It's promising to see ZiPS views him more as a SP now as opposed to a RP like last year. Not the numbers I was expecting but I'm glad to see that. I think he could settle in as a decent #3 if all goes well or a SU type RP if the Jays lose confidence in his change (which I've read multiple positive reports about recently). I'll have to run him through the conversation tool to see what he would look like as a RP.
Jose, it's a joke based on the Marchman/Upton thread.
In this case, I had his recent statistics as "J. P. Arencibia" while his profile for clustering was "J.P. Arencibia." Since he has no future statistics, it bears no effect on the actual projection (it's essentially a placeholder that gets filled in as/when/if Arencibia's career progresses).
Fitzgerald and Oliver move up and his #3 comp should be Mike Rivera.
Funny, because as a Red Sox fan whenever I see Bruno's name I think of that catch that nobody saw. I can still remember Sean McDonough's call as Bruansky disappeared into the corner: "Long fly ball into the corner and... BRUNANSKY!!! Did he...... MADE the sliding catch in the corner! And the Red Sox are the champions of the AL East in 1990!"
Totally forgot it was against the Jays, though.
Brunansky was the Cardinals' attempt to replace Jack Clark's power after Clark left as a free agent. It didn't exactly work out that way, but he did lead the team in homers in '88 and '89. I was only five when the Cardinals traded for him, but I remember it well, since it cost the team Tom Herr, who was my favorite player at the time, and to send him to the team that had just beaten the Cards in the World Series seemed to be adding insult to injury.
i was born in philadelphia in 1987, so naturally, i was taken in by watching the atlanta braves on TBS. the whole worst to first thing after '91 was probably the earliest foreshadowing of my becoming the rabid fan i am today. i was taken in by watching maddux, glavine, smoltz, and avery, and that, too, probably had a big impact on the interest i now have in pitching.
so, in 1993, the greatest phillies season of my lifetime up until 2008, i was rooting for the team that lost in the NLCS.
it gets worse. around 1997, i was big into baseball cards, and my favorite one was a rookie card of travis lee. so, naturally, i switched my fandom from the braves, to the diamondbacks.
now, if you notice, i'm no longer a diamondbacks fan. i am a phillies fan. guess why that happened:
that's right, i became a phillies fan because travis lee was traded to the phillies for curt schilling (along with vicente padilla, nelson figueroa, and omar daal).
how ####### shameful is this string of events? i really should kick my own ass after all that. it's just absolutely terrible.
Sub-optimal baseball is still baseball. And the 1996 World Series, the first for my team in my young life, was very exciting.
I've always known who Tom Brunansky was but didn't know who Dwayne Murphy was until a couple years ago.
Same here, I probably JUST missed the Murphy cut off as I started following baseball around 1989-1990.
You guys must not pay much attention to Shooty. His deep and undying love of Dwayne Murphy is a common point of discussion for him.
On a related note I achieved my decade-long dream of meeting Joel Plaskett on Friday, so my other outlets of embrassing admiration (Shooty, Evan Solomon, Ken Finkleman, Winona Ryder, James Burke and Giles Coren...this list is getting a little cumbersome) better watchout for formerly Joel-based fanboyism to be re-diverted towards them!
November 17. Here's the discussion thread.
What the #### was Joel Plaskett doing in Nottingham?
He actually played Nottingham the day I arrived...but I was dead tired/sick and passed out in my flat, so I missed it.
I think Joel might be asking the same thing. It was a really cool venue, in the alcove of an old railway station. And a TERRIFIC show. He brought his dad with him and they put on quite a show. And got some details on why Kelowna is on his no-play list. But only about 15 people showed up, the majority of us Canadians, so I'm not sure if he's cracking the Irish market. I did talk to a bartender in Nottingham who's upset that his girlfriend is so in love with him...but other than that, despite my best efforts to help him, his UK campaign seems a mixed success.
Congrats Shooty! And how uncharacteristically modest of you to keep this a secret. :-)
Don't worry Greg, almost nobody had heard of Murphy when he was playing.
I hope Chad can make the big club out of spring. He's a great guy and has had a rough off-season...his new-born child died from SIDS last month. Here's to regaining that prior All-Star form.
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