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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, November 20, 2010

2011 ZiPS Projections - Toronto Blue Jays

All in all, 2010 was a pleasant surprise for the Jays.  The team, short of Roy Halladay for the first time in a decade, managed to patch together enough pitching to be able to take advantage of the ultimate pleasant surprise, Jose Bautista, who went from a 4th outfielder type who could kinda fake third base to hitting 54 home runs, tied for 19th in the history of baseball.

Despite the positive record, the team does have a bit of work to do.  While the starting pitching probably performed to expectations and shouldn’t fall off too much, some of the team’s best relievers are unsigned (though shouldn’t be too expensive) and the organization’s kind of thin in quality relief pitching.  The problem with the Jays doing what the Rays have done is simply that they don’t have the farm system for it - it’s not really Alex Anthopoulos’s fault since he took over a year ago and the prospects received in the Halladay trade are what keep the Jays from scraping barnacles in the farm rankings.

The team will also have to figure out just what to do with Bautista - figuring out the proper value for him is a task that I don’t envy.  Of course, having a 2010 Bautista that you’re not sure how to value is a lot better than a 2009 Bautista that you know just what to pay.

The AL East is a tough division to keep in and I’m slowly coming around to a salary cap.  Don’t get me wrong, I mostly would now prefer a salary cap as opposed to the mess of a revenue-sharing system we have now - the players are getting screwed anyway and there’s essentially a salary cap anyway for 28 or 29 teams, but a salary cap in return for less revenue-sharing might at least get the players back to the historical pot share and increase the investment incentive.

But that’s an article for another time.  The Jays need some creative thinking and while Double-A has done some things I disagree with (Taylor Buchholz for instance, should not have hit waivers with so much uncertainty in the Jays pen), there has been some thinking outside of the box, most notably the clever move to acquire Miguel Olivo days before free agency in order to receive a compensation pick.

Honestly, this is probably a .500 team.  The Jays would compete in the NL Central or NL West, but this is a tough division.  The Jays have tread water for too long that 85 wins is probably the short-term high-water mark, though the organization is far from hopeless.

Next up:  Tampa Bay

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Jose Bautista     R    RF  30   .249 .362 .524 137 450  77 112  24   2  32  84  76 107   6   1  135
Adam Lind         L    DH  27   .269 .321 .471 154 580  72 156  36   3  25  92  42 128   1   1  109
Travis Snider     L    LF  23   .260 .320 .465 131 469  60 122  28   1  22  61  40 135   7   5  108
Vernon Wells      R    CF  32   .265 .318 .451 146 565  73 150  36   3  21  77  44  78   9   4  104
Lyle Overbay      L    1B  34   .244 .336 .423 133 454  59 111  29   2  16  58  62 107   1   0  102
Aaron Hill        R    2B  29   .257 .312 .444 131 518  70 133  28   0  23  73  38  78   4   2  100
Fred Lewis        L    LF  30   .255 .334 .406 121 404  67 103  25   6   8  37  43 107  15   6   98
Rajai Davis       R    CF  30   .273 .318 .380 137 432  64 120  24   4   6  46  25  68  41  11   91
Yunel Escobar     R    SS  28   .268 .345 .381 144 533  72 143  25   1  11  55  56  71   5   4   95
Mike Jacobs       L    1B  30   .232 .289 .453 128 470  62 109  22   2  26  80  39 123   1   0   96
Randy Ruiz        R    DH  33   .248 .301 .423  84 319  38  79  18   1  12  30  20  93   1   1   92
Jarrett Hoffpauir R    2B  28   .249 .318 .386 121 438  48 109  24   3  10  48  44  47   4   3   88
Eric Thames       L    LF  24   .236 .307 .402 149 584  77 138  25   6  20  84  46 173   7   5   89
Dewayne Wise      L    CF  33   .243 .286 .410  91 239  33  58  12   5   6  23  12  55   8   4   84
J. P. Arencibia   R    C   25   .230 .273 .432 135 539  63 124  32   1  25  80  31 142   0   0   86
Brad Emaus        R    3B  25   .238 .314 .364 147 558  69 133  30   2  12  65  61  98   9   3   82
Miguel Olivo      R    C   32   .228 .270 .413 106 373  44  85  15   3  16  55  19 122   6   3   80
Darin Mastroianni R    CF  25   .246 .316 .309 134 524  75 129  19   4   2  36  52 121  37  10   69
Brian Dopirak     R    DH  27   .238 .279 .392 119 474  46 113  26   1  15  62  25 125   1   2   78
David Cooper      L    1B  24   .234 .291 .367 137 531  50 124  30   1  13  65  43 111   0   0   76
Aaron Mathews     R    LF  29   .250 .289 .359 102 404  42 101  19   2   7  43  22  67   2   1   73
Mike McCoy        R    SS  30   .231 .312 .317 110 350  48  81  14   2   4  29  42  69  17   5   70
Chris Lubanski    L    LF  26   .219 .277 .376  95 343  43  75  16   4  10  43  29 108   5   2   73
Jesus Merchan     R    SS  30   .255 .296 .343  66 251  23  64  12   2   2  21  11  30   2   2   71
Moises Sierra     R    RF  22   .243 .295 .344  80 305  31  74  14   1   5  39  17  71   5   3   71
Manny Mayorson    R    SS  28   .252 .289 .324 111 408  44 103  21   1   2  30  20  32  14   4   64
John McDonald     R    2B  36   .241 .264 .371  73 170  22  41   8   1   4  19   5  25   2   1   68
Jason Lane        R    LF  34   .213 .289 .362  97 362  44  77  19   1  11  42  36  80   2   3   74
Travis d’Arnaud   R    C   22   .231 .280 .357 108 415  43  96  23   1   9  46  26  92   4   4   70
Shawn Bowman      R    3B  26   .224 .270 .365 100 392  40  88  20   1  11  40  22 128   1   2   69
Brian Jeroloman   R    C   26   .204 .315 .301 102 339  31  69  15   0   6  31  54 131   0   0   67
Jose Molina       R    C   36   .220 .273 .312  62 173  15  38   7   0   3  13   9  40   1   0   57
Adeiny HechavarriaR    SS  22   .232 .259 .313 125 512  59 119  21   4   4  41  18  93  13   3   53
Adam Calderone    L    RF  27   .207 .256 .346 117 445  47  92  21   4  11  45  26 130   6   7   60
Callix Crabbe     B    2B  28   .206 .286 .288 102 344  44  71  13   3   3  27  36  74  10   6   55

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Jose Bautista                AV/112  PO/114   FR/86           FR/79  PO/113   FR/79
Adam Lind                    FR/110                           PO/56
Travis Snider                                                AV/191          FR/123
Vernon Wells                                                          FR/54
Lyle Overbay                  AV/63
Aaron Hill                            AV/74
Fred Lewis                                                   AV/157  FR/189  FR/157
Rajai Davis                                                  VG/112  AV/110  VG/112
Yunel Escobar                                         AV/93
Mike Jacobs                  FR/195
Randy Ruiz                   FR/187
Jarrett Hoffpauir                    AV/145  AV/119  FR/124
Eric Thames                                                  FR/168
Dewayne Wise                                                 VG/127   VG/80   VG/67
J. P. Arencibia          FR
Brad Emaus                           AV/115  AV/140
Miguel Olivo             VG
Darin Mastroianni                                            VG/121  AV/143
Brian Dopirak                AV/217                          FR/151
David Cooper                 FR/111
Aaron Mathews                                                AV/104  FR/118  AV/104
Mike McCoy                           AV/124  AV/107  AV/116  AV/126  FR/122  AV/108
Chris Lubanski                                               AV/120          FR/120
Jesus Merchan                        VG/164          AV/149
Moises Sierra                                                                VG/267
Manny Mayorson               AV/111  FR/117  AV/116  FR/120
John McDonald                        VG/107  AV/122  AV/104  AV/113
Jason Lane                   FR/119                          Fr/114          FR/111
Travis d’Arnaud          AV
Shawn Bowman                                  AV/82
Brian Jeroloman          AV
Jose Molina              VG
Adeiny Hechavarria                                   AV/131
Adam Calderone                                               VG/115   AV/97  VG/115
Callix Crabbe                        AV/176  AV/114  FR/155   AV/97  AV/114  AV/111

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Shaun Marcum      R     29    3.79     9    6   23   23  137.7  131   58   17   35  118  115
Brandon Morrow    R     26    4.04    11    8   28   28  149.3  133   67   16   72  162  108
Ricky Romero      L     26    4.15    14   10   34   34  212.7  210   98   20   87  180  105
Dustin McGowan    R     29    4.41     5    5   14   14   79.7   83   39    8   29   62   99
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Brett Cecil       L     24    4.65    10   10   29   29  155.0  167   80   18   57  115   94
Kyle Drabek       R     23    4.97    10   12   28   27  157.7  167   87   18   81  109   88
Shawn Hill        R     30    4.99     3    3    8    8   39.7   47   22    4   12   23   87
Jesse Litsch      R     26    5.12     5    6   16   16   89.7  103   51   13   24   49   85
Zach Stewart      R     24    5.15     4    5   29   22  120.7  139   69   13   55   92   85
Marc Rzepczynski  L     25    5.55     7   10   25   24  123.3  144   76   15   64   99   79
Brad Mills        L     26    5.91     5    9   23   22  115.7  133   76   19   62   88   74
Scott Richmond    R     31    5.93     5    8   19   17   91.0  105   60   19   37   69   73
Jo-Jo Reyes       L     26    6.02     4    7   21   19   92.7  109   62   16   42   68   72
Randy Boone       R     26    6.25     6   11   26   23  125.3  167   87   16   56   64   70
Rey Gonzalez      R     25    6.42     5   11   24   23  115.0  145   82   17   50   54   68
Robert Ray        R     27    6.55     4    8   19   18   90.7  119   66   15   43   53   66
Luis Perez        L     26    6.70     6   14   29   27  141.0  186  105   18   94   78   65
Lance Broadway    R     27    7.18     4   11   32   20  135.3  193  108   21   72   69   61

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Scott Downs       L     35    3.42     4    2   59    0   55.3   51   21    5   17   48  127
Jason Frasor      R     33    3.83     4    3   60    0   56.3   51   24    6   24   56  114
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Shawn Camp        R     35    4.06     4    3   58    0   64.3   65   29    7   19   47  107
Kevin Gregg       R     33    4.06     6    4   66    0   62.0   55   28    7   30   63  107
Casey Janssen     R     29    4.25     4    3   60    0   65.7   69   31    7   21   52  102
Jesse Carlson     L     30    4.60     3    3   67    0   62.7   65   32    8   20   48   95
David Purcey      L     29    4.81     3    3   70    0   73.0   70   39    9   45   69   91
Josh Roenicke     R     28    5.06     3    4   55    0   69.3   74   39    8   36   62   86
Danny Farquhar    R     24    5.32     3    4   56    0   66.0   62   39    9   56   60   82
Jeremy Accardo    R     29    5.32     2    3   46    0   45.7   55   27    5   20   26   82
Jason Lane        L     34    5.40     0    0    3    0    3.3    3    2    0    1    2   81
Steven Register   R     28    5.94     2    4   56    0   72.7   90   48   11   30   44   73
Sean Henn         L     30    6.16     2    3   37    4   64.3   79   44    8   43   43   71
Merkin Valdez     R     29    6.19     2    3   39    1   48.0   63   33    6   25   29   70
Rommie Lewis      L     28    6.42     3    5   42    5   67.3   87   48   10   36   45   68
Clint Everts      R     26    6.68     2    5   43    2   67.3   83   50   10   52   52   65

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Vernon Wells        .271  .321  .455  2101  8228  1114  2229   499    43   310  1155   598  1091   126   103
Travis Snider       .255  .321  .457  2038  7186   909  1832   442    17   325   906   685  1941   106   106
Yunel Escobar       .269  .342  .380  1711  6374   850  1712   286    14   131   660   640   738    57    93
Jose Bautista       .239  .341  .464  1701  5546   829  1328   291    25   301   858   802  1201    58   113
Adam Lind           .263  .315  .455  1606  6011   734  1578   364    27   247   902   442  1235    12   104
Aaron Hill          .260  .314  .423  1601  6233   815  1619   339     8   220   805   444   855    47    94
Lyle Overbay        .265  .348  .436  1576  5409   707  1431   381    16   171   709   693  1130    17   106
Fred Lewis          .260  .335  .403   986  3207   531   833   196    44    58   281   327   783   108    96

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Ricky Romero       156  120    0    4.21  382  383     2408 2379 1126  245 1017 2080    104

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Jose Bautista     RF    61%  25%   8%   4%   2%      Tom Brunansky       Dwight Evans        Roy Sievers
Adam Lind         DH     6%  21%  22%  31%  19%       Larry Sheets         Chad Tracy    Willie Montanez
Travis Snider     LF    11%  22%  18%  20%  28%        David Ortiz     Nelson Simmons        Lee Stevens
Vernon Wells      CF    20%  20%  28%  22%  10%           Sam Mele      Jackie Brandt          Del Ennis
Lyle Overbay      1B     3%  12%  16%  34%  35%          Ron Santo        Lee Stevens          J.T. Snow
Aaron Hill        2B    23%  17%  19%  22%  19%          Joe Crede        Eric McNair         David Bell
Fred Lewis        LF     3%  12%  17%  27%  41%          Al BumbryClaudell Washington     John Rodriguez
Rajai Davis       CF    16%  21%  30%  22%  11%       Willie McGee     Doug Glanville      Willie Wilson
Yunel Escobar     SS    16%  20%  29%  22%  12%     Bob Aspromonte     Scott Fletcher         Dave Chalk
Mike Jacobs       1B     2%   7%  11%  31%  49%          Ivan Cruz          Nate Gold      J.R. Phillips
Randy Ruiz        DH     1%   5%   9%  28%  58%       Mike Blowers       Jerry Martin         Walt Dropo
Jarrett Hoffpauir 2B     7%   8%  14%  26%  45%  Steve Lombardozzi         Joe Dillon         Rico Rossy
Eric Thames       LF     2%   5%   8%  16%  69%     Mike Patterson        Mike Berger       Lloyd Moseby
Dewayne Wise      CF     6%   6%  15%  27%  46%       Tommy McCraw       Dave Roberts     Michael Tucker
J. P. Arencibia   C      4%  17%  24%  31%  24%     J.P. Arencibia    Mike Fitzgerald         Joe Oliver
Brad Emaus        3B     1%   5%  10%  21%  64%     Garrett Atkins        Paul Janish         Mark Kiger
Miguel Olivo      C      3%  12%  20%  32%  34%          Jim Hegan        Jason LaRue         Mike Heath
Darin Mastroianni CF     1%   2%   9%  26%  61%     Curtis Goodwin     Joey Gathright       Gary Thurman
Brian Dopirak     DH     0%   0%   1%   7%  92%     Charley Carter     Danny Matienzo        Chad Santos
David Cooper      1B     0%   0%   1%   6%  92%       Jose Birriel    Randy Jorgensen      Travis Hinton
Aaron Mathews     LF     0%   0%   0%   2%  97%        Jeff Schulz        Pat Watkins         Chan Perry
Mike McCoy        SS     4%   6%  16%  28%  47%      Mark Belanger         Tim Barker       Cesar Crespo
Chris Lubanski    LF     0%   1%   2%   5%  92%      Emmitt Cohick       Jon Hamilton      Justin Bowles
Jesus Merchan     SS     1%   2%   8%  20%  69%    Robert Eenhoorn    Alvaro Espinoza      Bien Figueroa
Moises Sierra     RF     0%   1%   1%   3%  94%         Rex Hudler        Dan Winters         Greg Pirkl
Manny Mayorson    SS     0%   1%   5%  16%  77%        Rey Sanchez     Andy Cannizaro       Bobby Bonner
John McDonald     2B     3%   1%   2%   6%  88%        Juan Castro       Billy Martin       Miguel Cairo
Jason Lane        LF     0%   1%   1%   4%  95%       Damon Buford       Chad Mottola         Mark Smith
Travis d’Arnaud   C      2%   3%   6%  17%  72%        Neil Wilson        Pete Beeler  Ryan Christianson
Shawn Bowman      3B     0%   1%   2%   4%  93%         Aaron Herr     Glenn Williams         Chad Spann
Brian Jeroloman   C      1%   2%   4%  16%  77%       John Gibbons        Dan WhitmerMaximiliano Ramirez
Jose Molina       C      0%   1%   2%   8%  88%        Raul Chavez      Elston Howard         Joe Oliver
Adeiny HechavarriaSS     0%   1%   3%   7%  90%     Tony Rodriguez       Audy Ciriaco      Eduardo Nunez
Adam Calderone    RF     0%   0%   0%   0%  99%     Richie Robnett      Justin Bowles      Todd Dunwoody
Callix Crabbe     2B     0%   0%   0%   1%  98%  Gary Miller-Jones     Jon Schuerholz         Doug Baker

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Scott Downs       RP     54%   39%    7%       Gary Lavelle         Tug McGraw      Greg Swindell
Shaun Marcum      SP     60%   37%    4%     Alex Fernandez    Scott Sanderson      Pascual Perez
Jason Frasor      RP     33%   50%   16%      Curt Leskanic     Juan Berenguer        Jeff Nelson
Taylor Buchholz   RP     29%   48%   23%    Rich Monteleone        Gene Nelson        Geoff Geary
Brandon Morrow    SP     48%   46%    6%        Jose DeLeon        Juan Guzman         Kerry Wood
Shawn Camp        RP     21%   53%   26%          Ted Wilks      Joe Slusarski         Rick White
Kevin Gregg       RP     20%   55%   24%        Jose DeLeon       Tim Stoddard       Rich DeLucia
Ricky Romero      SP     37%   58%    5%      Danny Jackson        Shawn Estes      Chris Nabholz
Casey Janssen     RP     18%   54%   28%    Robbie Crabtree     Larry Andersen        John Habyan
Dustin McGowan    SP     31%   46%   23%        Rick Rhoden          Mike Witt      Joey Hamilton
Jesse Carlson     RP     11%   41%   48%       Graeme Lloyd      Mike Magnante     Erasmo Ramirez
Brett Cecil       SP     13%   60%   27%          Bud Smith        Steve Trout       Allen Watson
David Purcey      RP      5%   38%   57%    Armando Almanza      Matt Thornton      Ricky Pickett
Kyle Drabek       SP      6%   45%   50%     Charlie Haeger        J.D. Durbin        Jimmy Jones
Shawn Hill        SP     18%   30%   52%     Scott Erickson      Sidney Ponson       Heath Totten
Josh Roenicke     RP      2%   28%   70%      Roberto Giron       Roy Corcoran    Courtney Duncan
Jesse Litsch      SP      8%   38%   54%      Brian Meadows        Dave Eiland        Josh Towers
Zach Stewart      SP      4%   34%   62%     Julian Tavarez       Jimmy Haynes      Joey Hamilton
Danny Farquhar    RP      1%   17%   81%        Brad Voyles        Ted Langdon     Dave Shipanoff
Jeremy Accardo    RP      4%   22%   74%      Rick Lysander      Andy Mitchell      Jose Santiago
Jason Lane        RP     47%    0%   53%       Kevin Hickey    Vic Darensbourg        Mike Mohler
Marc Rzepczynski  SP      1%   19%   81%   Brandon Claussen     C.J. Nitkowski         Ken Vining
Brad Mills        SP      0%   10%   90%      Lindsay Gulin        Mark Redman       Dave Stewart
Scott Richmond    SP      0%   10%   89%       Jackson Todd    Nerio Rodriguez    Jeremy Cummings
Steven Register   RP      0%    7%   93%        Aaron Small        Bryan Corey       Nick McCurdy
Jo-Jo Reyes       SP      0%   11%   89%      Travis Miller        Greg Miller     Brian McNichol
Sean Henn         RP      0%    3%   97%         James Wray        Mark Watson         Tim Adkins
Merkin Valdez     RP      0%    5%   94%      Andy Mitchell      Mike Bumstead        Jose Segura
Randy Boone       SP      0%    3%   97%       Marcus Jones    Mickey Callaway         Bill Swift
Rommie Lewis      RP      0%    2%   98%       Matt Perisho      Dennis Powell         Matt White
Rey Gonzalez      SP      0%    2%   98%       Andy Taulbee       Denny Wagner       Rick Steirer
B.J. LaMura       SP      0%    2%   98%         Chris Hook    Michael Johnson      Chris Fussell
Robert Ray        SP      0%    2%   98%      Edward Valdez       Brian Rogers         Matt Saier
Clint Everts      RP      0%    1%   99%          Tim Meeks        Rick Greene      Dilson Torres
Luis Perez        SP      0%    0%  100%      Mike Wodnicki         Greg Kubes       Carlos Perez
Lance Broadway    SP      0%    0%  100%         Lee Rodney       Chris Enochs     Steven Jackson

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Jose Bautista            3%      32%      68%       0%       1%      61%      39%       0%
Adam Lind                8%       2%      23%      13%       2%      27%       4%       0%
Travis Snider            5%       3%      27%       1%       0%      16%       5%       1%
Vernon Wells             7%       2%      12%      14%       2%       9%       2%       2%
Lyle Overbay             1%       8%       5%       1%       1%       2%       2%       0%
Aaron Hill               4%       1%      11%       2%       0%      15%       1%       0%
Fred Lewis               4%       6%       1%       0%      10%       0%       0%       2%
Rajai Davis             21%       3%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%      81%
Yunel Escobar           10%      14%       3%       1%       0%       2%       2%       0%
Mike Jacobs              0%       0%      13%       0%       1%      26%       2%       0%
Randy Ruiz               3%       1%       6%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Jarrett Hoffpauir        2%       2%       2%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Eric Thames              0%       1%       2%       0%      12%      10%       0%       0%
Dewayne Wise             4%       0%       7%       0%       7%       0%       1%       0%
J. P. Arencibia          0%       0%       6%       5%       0%      25%       0%       0%
Brad Emaus               0%       1%       0%       2%       1%       1%       0%       1%
Miguel Olivo             0%       0%       4%       0%       2%       1%       1%       0%
Darin Mastroianni        1%       2%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%      80%
Brian Dopirak            0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
David Cooper             0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Aaron Mathews            2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Mike McCoy               1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       6%
Chris Lubanski           0%       0%       1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Jesus Merchan            7%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Moises Sierra            2%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Manny Mayorson           2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       4%
John McDonald            5%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Jason Lane               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Travis d’Arnaud          1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Shawn Bowman             0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brian Jeroloman          0%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jose Molina              1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Adeiny Hechavarria       0%       0%       0%       0%       6%       0%       0%       3%
Adam Calderone           0%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Callix Crabbe            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Scott Downs               46%        90%        40%        16%        78%
Shaun Marcum              23%        81%        38%        32%        42%
Jason Frasor              26%        78%        80%         1%        69%
Taylor Buchholz           22%        70%        35%         9%        48%
Brandon Morrow            13%        75%        93%         0%        62%
Shawn Camp                21%        68%         7%        14%        61%
Kevin Gregg               20%        70%        82%         0%        60%
Ricky Romero               7%        70%        30%         0%        80%
Casey Janssen             14%        66%        15%        11%        62%
Dustin McGowan             7%        49%        15%         2%        73%
Jesse Carlson              7%        45%        10%        11%        40%
Brett Cecil                2%        35%         5%         1%        47%
David Purcey               4%        31%        65%         0%        47%
Kyle Drabek                1%        17%         2%         0%        58%
Shawn Hill                 6%        32%         3%        23%        56%
Josh Roenicke              2%        19%        48%         0%        57%
Jesse Litsch               2%        19%         0%        27%        26%
Zach Stewart               0%        12%         4%         0%        58%
Danny Farquhar             1%        15%        48%         0%        38%
Jeremy Accardo             4%        20%         2%         3%        69%
Jason Lane                47%        47%        20%        59%        64%
Marc Rzepczynski           0%         5%        16%         0%        46%
Brad Mills                 0%         2%         7%         0%        14%
Scott Richmond             0%         2%         8%         0%         2%
Steven Register            0%         3%         0%         0%        24%
Jo-Jo Reyes                0%         2%         5%         0%         8%
Sean Henn                  0%         2%         2%         0%        46%
Merkin Valdez              0%         4%         1%         0%        47%
Randy Boone                0%         0%         0%         0%        36%
Rommie Lewis               0%         1%         1%         0%        38%
Rey Gonzalez               0%         0%         0%         0%        23%
B.J. LaMura                0%         1%         6%         0%        11%
Robert Ray                 0%         0%         0%         0%        13%
Clint Everts               0%         0%        10%         0%        26%
Luis Perez                 0%         0%         0%         0%        39%
Lance Broadway             0%         0%         0%         0%        15%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians
Washington Nationals

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 20, 2010 at 05:48 PM | 44 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. jfish26101 Posted: November 20, 2010 at 06:15 PM (#3694282)
This is probably a dumb question but is that Stewart projection right? If nothing else, the age has to be wrong...not sure if that would change the numbers at all.

It's promising to see ZiPS views him more as a SP now as opposed to a RP like last year. Not the numbers I was expecting but I'm glad to see that. I think he could settle in as a decent #3 if all goes well or a SU type RP if the Jays lose confidence in his change (which I've read multiple positive reports about recently). I'll have to run him through the conversation tool to see what he would look like as a RP.
   2. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: November 20, 2010 at 06:17 PM (#3694283)
tom brunansky? for a guy i've never heard of, his name seems to be popping up an awful lot the last few days.
   3. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 20, 2010 at 06:22 PM (#3694286)
Yeah, age is wrong. Will fix.
   4. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: November 20, 2010 at 06:26 PM (#3694289)
You must be young steagles (or I must be old), Bruno was a key part of the '87 Twins WS team and the '90 Red Sox ALE champs. Slugger and good defensive outfielder and his diving catch saved the division title on the last day of that 1990 season though he is probably remembered more as a Twin.
   5. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: November 20, 2010 at 06:27 PM (#3694290)
Oh, and that projection for Bautista would still be a good season.
   6. GregD Posted: November 20, 2010 at 06:31 PM (#3694292)
If you asked me name a team with Bruno I'd like most people say Twins, but when I picture him for some reason I always see him in his Cardinals uniform, and I remember those trades from Minnie to St Louis and from St Louis to Boston pretty vividly.
   7. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 20, 2010 at 06:32 PM (#3694293)
You must be young steagles (or I must be old), Bruno was a key part of the '87 Twins WS team and the '90 Red Sox ALE champs. Slugger and good defensive outfielder and his diving catch saved the division title on the last day of that 1990 season though he is probably remembered more as a Twin.

Jose, it's a joke based on the Marchman/Upton thread.
   8. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: November 20, 2010 at 06:37 PM (#3694296)

You must be young steagles (or I must be old), Bruno was a key part of the '87 Twins WS team and the '90 Red Sox ALE champs. Slugger and good defensive outfielder and his diving catch saved the division title on the last day of that 1990 season though he is probably remembered more as a Twin.

Jose, it's a joke based on the Marchman/Upton thread.
no, no joke here. i was born in '87, and i just had never heard of the guy. not even a passing mention, where i might kind of recognize his name, i was just completely unaware of his existence until the upton thread.
   9. Freeballin' (Tales of Met Power) Posted: November 20, 2010 at 06:51 PM (#3694302)
I think of Bruno as a Twin (I was 10 in 1987).
   10. RJ in TO Posted: November 20, 2010 at 06:56 PM (#3694305)
I think of Bruno as that ######## who helped eliminate the Jays from playoff contention in 1990 by faking a bullshit catch in the RF corner of Fenway. Of course, this somewhat harsh view may be slightly influenced by my personal fandom.
   11. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 20, 2010 at 07:26 PM (#3694314)
I was so disenchanted by baseball during the 1996-2001 period (not the strike thing, the style of play) that I have a hard time seeing how anyone could have become a fan who was 10 years old during that time. I've met people who did, though. I guess if you'd never experienced anything else.
   12. Walt Davis Posted: November 20, 2010 at 07:27 PM (#3694315)
ZiPS obviously hasn't built in a Dwayne Murphy effect yet ... all those HR projections should be increased by 75%. :-)
   13. Derb Posted: November 20, 2010 at 07:33 PM (#3694319)
I like Arencibia's top comp. Pretty high standards to live up to!
   14. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 20, 2010 at 07:41 PM (#3694322)
Doh! 2nd time I've done that this offseason.

In this case, I had his recent statistics as "J. P. Arencibia" while his profile for clustering was "J.P. Arencibia." Since he has no future statistics, it bears no effect on the actual projection (it's essentially a placeholder that gets filled in as/when/if Arencibia's career progresses).

Fitzgerald and Oliver move up and his #3 comp should be Mike Rivera.
   15. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 20, 2010 at 07:49 PM (#3694331)
I think of Bruno as that ######## who helped eliminate the Jays from playoff contention in 1990 by faking a ######## catch in the RF corner of Fenway. Of course, this somewhat harsh view may be slightly influenced by my personal fandom.


Funny, because as a Red Sox fan whenever I see Bruno's name I think of that catch that nobody saw. I can still remember Sean McDonough's call as Bruansky disappeared into the corner: "Long fly ball into the corner and... BRUNANSKY!!! Did he...... MADE the sliding catch in the corner! And the Red Sox are the champions of the AL East in 1990!"

Totally forgot it was against the Jays, though.
   16. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: November 20, 2010 at 08:06 PM (#3694343)
That Jason Lane projection is a little wacky. I hope it's accurate, just for the sake of fun. Even chance of being awesome or awful, but nothing in between.
   17. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: November 20, 2010 at 08:19 PM (#3694353)
It wasn't against the Jays, it eliminated them. The sox were playing the White Sox that night and Ozzie Guillen was the one that hit the ball. I remember much being made of Chicago playing very hard that series even though they had been eliminated already.
   18. DCW3 Posted: November 20, 2010 at 08:21 PM (#3694357)
If you asked me name a team with Bruno I'd like most people say Twins, but when I picture him for some reason I always see him in his Cardinals uniform, and I remember those trades from Minnie to St Louis and from St Louis to Boston pretty vividly.

Brunansky was the Cardinals' attempt to replace Jack Clark's power after Clark left as a free agent. It didn't exactly work out that way, but he did lead the team in homers in '88 and '89. I was only five when the Cardinals traded for him, but I remember it well, since it cost the team Tom Herr, who was my favorite player at the time, and to send him to the team that had just beaten the Cards in the World Series seemed to be adding insult to injury.
   19. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: November 20, 2010 at 08:22 PM (#3694360)
With the Orioles having some great prospects in the pipeline, playoff expansion (choke gasp gag), and the Jays, it looks like we'll soon start having discussions over whether EVERY AL East team would make the playoffs if they were in a division outside the one they're in.
   20. Ken015 Posted: November 20, 2010 at 08:27 PM (#3694366)
AA reliever Magnuson may get a shot but I can see with all these guys you need to draw the line somewhere.
   21. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: November 20, 2010 at 08:27 PM (#3694367)
Also, I thought that Jason Lane was a hitter.
   22. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: November 20, 2010 at 08:31 PM (#3694374)

I was so disenchanted by baseball during the 1996-2001 period (not the strike thing, the style of play) that I have a hard time seeing how anyone could have become a fan who was 10 years old during that time. I've met people who did, though. I guess if you'd never experienced anything else.
well, the story of my baseball fandom is probably about the worst scenario possible.

i was born in philadelphia in 1987, so naturally, i was taken in by watching the atlanta braves on TBS. the whole worst to first thing after '91 was probably the earliest foreshadowing of my becoming the rabid fan i am today. i was taken in by watching maddux, glavine, smoltz, and avery, and that, too, probably had a big impact on the interest i now have in pitching.

so, in 1993, the greatest phillies season of my lifetime up until 2008, i was rooting for the team that lost in the NLCS.

it gets worse. around 1997, i was big into baseball cards, and my favorite one was a rookie card of travis lee. so, naturally, i switched my fandom from the braves, to the diamondbacks.

now, if you notice, i'm no longer a diamondbacks fan. i am a phillies fan. guess why that happened:

that's right, i became a phillies fan because travis lee was traded to the phillies for curt schilling (along with vicente padilla, nelson figueroa, and omar daal).


how ####### shameful is this string of events? i really should kick my own ass after all that. it's just absolutely terrible.
   23. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 20, 2010 at 08:43 PM (#3694387)
You have the excuse of being from Philadelphia. That means you can always be a Phillies fan, no matter what else you've done.
   24. Zac Schmitt Posted: November 20, 2010 at 08:44 PM (#3694388)
I was so disenchanted by baseball during the 1996-2001 period (not the strike thing, the style of play) that I have a hard time seeing how anyone could have become a fan who was 10 years old during that time. I've met people who did, though. I guess if you'd never experienced anything else.


Sub-optimal baseball is still baseball. And the 1996 World Series, the first for my team in my young life, was very exciting.
   25. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 20, 2010 at 08:50 PM (#3694393)
KF, Magnusson went over to Oakland in the Davis trade.
   26. Ken015 Posted: November 20, 2010 at 08:52 PM (#3694397)
Thanks, did not notice that.
   27. shock Posted: November 20, 2010 at 09:56 PM (#3694433)
Isn't it weird when you memory skips a whole year? I though Mike Jacobs played for the Royals last year, but that was 2009. Last year he was on the Mets ODR and only played 7 games and now he's apparently on the Jays. Huh.
   28. LWNNcommish Posted: November 21, 2010 at 07:09 AM (#3694642)
No Hayhurst?
   29. Unintentionally_Ignorant Posted: November 21, 2010 at 05:07 PM (#3694711)
Memory skips a whole year? I was wondering why there wasn't an Ernie Whitt projection!!
   30. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 21, 2010 at 05:57 PM (#3694735)
I became a Phillies fan because of geography, but it definitely happened when Curt Schilling was the leader of their staff, not immediately afterwards. I was 15 or 16 and there was talk of the Schilling-Matt Beech-Tyler Green-Carlton Loewer rotation being the next dominant force, so it seemed like the time to hop on board before the bandwagon got too full. Little did I know the bandwagon would stay empty until the aborted Jim Thome era.

I've always known who Tom Brunansky was but didn't know who Dwayne Murphy was until a couple years ago.
   31. Greg K Posted: November 21, 2010 at 06:34 PM (#3694767)
I totally missed the Rajai Davis trade...when did that happen?
   32. Greg K Posted: November 21, 2010 at 06:36 PM (#3694768)
I've always known who Tom Brunansky was but didn't know who Dwayne Murphy was until a couple years ago.

Same here, I probably JUST missed the Murphy cut off as I started following baseball around 1989-1990.
   33. RJ in TO Posted: November 21, 2010 at 06:48 PM (#3694781)
I've always known who Tom Brunansky was but didn't know who Dwayne Murphy was until a couple years ago.
Same here, I probably JUST missed the Murphy cut off as I started following baseball around 1989-1990.


You guys must not pay much attention to Shooty. His deep and undying love of Dwayne Murphy is a common point of discussion for him.
   34. Greg K Posted: November 21, 2010 at 06:57 PM (#3694791)
Becoming aware of the greatness that is Shooty a couple of years ago is what ended the ignorance. That and him becoming a member of the Jays coaching staff.

On a related note I achieved my decade-long dream of meeting Joel Plaskett on Friday, so my other outlets of embrassing admiration (Shooty, Evan Solomon, Ken Finkleman, Winona Ryder, James Burke and Giles Coren...this list is getting a little cumbersome) better watchout for formerly Joel-based fanboyism to be re-diverted towards them!
   35. RJ in TO Posted: November 21, 2010 at 06:58 PM (#3694792)
I totally missed the Rajai Davis trade...when did that happen?


November 17. Here's the discussion thread.
   36. RJ in TO Posted: November 21, 2010 at 06:59 PM (#3694794)
On a related note I've achieved my decade-long dream of meeting Joel Plaskett on Friday

What the #### was Joel Plaskett doing in Nottingham?
   37. Greg K Posted: November 21, 2010 at 07:03 PM (#3694798)
Actually I had to travel all the way to Dublin to see him.
He actually played Nottingham the day I arrived...but I was dead tired/sick and passed out in my flat, so I missed it.

I think Joel might be asking the same thing. It was a really cool venue, in the alcove of an old railway station. And a TERRIFIC show. He brought his dad with him and they put on quite a show. And got some details on why Kelowna is on his no-play list. But only about 15 people showed up, the majority of us Canadians, so I'm not sure if he's cracking the Irish market. I did talk to a bartender in Nottingham who's upset that his girlfriend is so in love with him...but other than that, despite my best efforts to help him, his UK campaign seems a mixed success.
   38. Walt Davis Posted: November 21, 2010 at 07:22 PM (#3694809)
Becoming aware of the greatness that is Shooty a couple of years ago is what ended the ignorance. That and him becoming a member of the Jays coaching staff.

Congrats Shooty! And how uncharacteristically modest of you to keep this a secret. :-)

Don't worry Greg, almost nobody had heard of Murphy when he was playing.
   39. Charlie O Posted: November 22, 2010 at 10:25 PM (#3695589)
Tom Brunansky heard of Dwayne Murphy. When Brunansky was a rookie with the Angels, Murphy robbed him of what would have been his first major league homer. It was a shot off Matt Keough that Murphy leapt high to grab just as it was sailing over the fence. When he came back to the ground, nobody could tell if Murphy caught it or not. Brunansky was in his home run trot, heading toward third base when the coach stopped him and pointed to Murphy who was throwing the ball back to the infield. (Shooty Babitt was the A's second baseman in that game.)
   40. Saberseams Posted: December 07, 2010 at 03:48 PM (#3704732)
Why no projection for Alan Farina? With the #'s he put up at A, AA, and in the AFL, I'd be pretty sure he'll get a shot at some point in 2011.
   41. Mike Green Posted: December 09, 2010 at 06:27 PM (#3706855)
Don't like Rzepczynski,Dan? It has to be a case of ethnic profiling at its worst. :)
   42. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: December 16, 2010 at 06:34 PM (#3712333)
Here's another request: Edwin Encarnacion, as he got caught on a waiver/NT shuttle and was never projected.
   43. SABRJoe Posted: January 04, 2011 at 12:32 AM (#3722623)
Via Rotoworld:
According to Reynolds Sports, the Blue Jays have signed reliever Chad Cordero.Cordero is represented by Reynolds Sports, so we're only awaiting an official announcement from the team. It's likely he received a minor league deal with a spring training invite. The former All-Star returned from labrum surgery and posted a 6.52 ERA over nine appearances with the Mariners in 2010. Despite his lack of success in limited opportunities in the big leagues last season, he did average 2.3 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in the minors, so it's worth taking a chance on a rebound.


I hope Chad can make the big club out of spring. He's a great guy and has had a rough off-season...his new-born child died from SIDS last month. Here's to regaining that prior All-Star form.
   44. stevegamer Posted: January 24, 2011 at 05:13 AM (#3735215)
Offense looks better adding Napoli's projected 117 to the mix. Not much of a drop from Wells to Rivera on offense - and maybe Juan can pick up a little with coaching.

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