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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, November 20, 2010

2011 ZiPS Projections - Washington Nationals

I bet you never guessed pitchers were fragile.  The Nats went into the 2010 season hoping that Jordan Zimmermann would return to a rotation that featured phenom Stephen Strasburg Virginia, Jason Marquis, John Lannan, and Livan Hernandez to eat some innings.

While Livan, who had previously earned the moniker Pitcher of Fail pretended to be a Cy Young candidate for a couple of months, the rest of the pitching didn’t “quite” work out.  Jason Marquis, brought in to eat some innings at around league-average, missed most of the season with bone chips (though he did pitch OK when he came back).  Lannan, who use Rueterkainen’s Faithful Watchdog to escape the vile clutches of Stochastia, Goddess of Balls in Play, got BABIPpity boppity-booed to a .322 BABIP and an 87 ERA+.  And in the biggest disappointment, Stephen Strasburg is out until 2012.

With the pitching problems and the inability to sign Adam Dunn to a contract extension, the Nats problems look a little harder than they did last year at this time.  But Strasburg should be bag, Bryce Harper is on the way (no projection for obvious reasons), and they still have Zimmerman, Zimmermann, and a no-frills-but-decent-bullpen.  Probably not enough to keep the Nats out of last in 2011, however.

And yes, I’m really, really sorry about Strasburg’s unfortunate top comp.

Next up:  Toronto

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Ryan Zimmerman    R    3B  26   .288 .361 .490 149 573  95 165  34   2  26  90  66 109   3   1  125
Adam Dunn         L    1B  31   .244 .363 .494 147 508  77 124  26   1  33  93  91 177   1   1  127
Josh Willingham   R    LF  32   .254 .362 .453 116 386  56  98  22   2  17  55  56  91   5   1  117
Mike Morse        R    RF  29   .275 .331 .457 100 313  41  86  17   2  12  38  22  64   1   1  108
Josh Whitesell    L    1B  29   .241 .336 .389  92 319  37  77  18   1   9  56  43  92   1   1   94
Ian Desmond       R    SS  25   .260 .312 .392 147 520  62 135  28   4  11  58  35 118  16   7   87
Jesus Flores      R    C   26   .251 .308 .396  67 207  23  52  10   1   6  34  15  57   0   0   87
Roger Bernadina   L    RF  27   .246 .308 .382 115 395  54  97  17   5   9  30  34  91  21   7   84
Jason Botts       B    1B  30   .238 .318 .395  82 294  34  70  20   1   8  39  35  76   0   1   90
Adam Kennedy      L    2B  35   .260 .319 .358 123 385  45 100  19   2   5  38  31  52  12   3   81
Willie Harris     L    LF  33   .224 .326 .378 131 294  41  66  13   4   8  33  41  62   9   4   88
Nyjer Morgan      L    CF  30   .269 .327 .344 128 480  68 129  19   7   1  31  34  78  34  15   80
Chris Marrero     R    1B  22   .256 .310 .387 154 579  66 148  29   1  15  72  42 140   1   5   85
Wilson Ramos      R    C   23   .263 .291 .397 110 426  43 112  25   1  10  42  13  64   1   2   82
Brian Bixler      R    SS  28   .243 .303 .358 123 436  59 106  20   6   6  43  30 133  16   5   76
Danny Espinosa    B    SS  24   .226 .296 .391 154 593  85 134  26   6  20  72  52 177  19  12   82
Justin Maxwell    R    CF  27   .209 .305 .360 121 364  53  76  15   2  12  40  47 133  21   7   77
Leonard Davis     L    LF  27   .228 .274 .403 130 464  51 106  21   6  16  50  26 140   8   4   78
Luis Ordaz        R    2B  35   .256 .283 .365  48 156  15  40   9   1   2  18   5  27   3   1   72
Derek Norris      R    C   22   .205 .330 .343 126 449  61  92  23   0  13  55  79 145   6   4   81
Michael Burgess   L    RF  22   .218 .291 .368 152 587  63 128  28   6  16  78  52 174   7   7   75
Alberto Gonzalez  R    2B  28   .256 .290 .343 120 289  30  74  15   2   2  20  13  37   1   1   69
Marvin Lowrance   L    LF  26   .220 .295 .351 125 427  48  94  19   2  11  37  42 122   3   4   72
Chase Lambin      B    3B  31   .222 .284 .354 124 432  42  96  21   3  10  43  32 124   4   3   70
Kevin Mench       R    RF  33   .233 .286 .339 105 301  31  70  18   1   4  35  23  35   2   1   67
Seth Bynum        R    2B  30   .213 .262 .368 111 389  44  83  19   1  13  52  26 128   7   3   66
Pete Orr          L    3B  32   .224 .272 .342 130 433  50  97  19   7   6  37  22  90  15   7   63
Chris Duncan      L    1B  30   .208 .292 .332  95 298  29  62  13   0   8  33  35  82   2   2   67
Ivan Rodriguez    R    C   39   .245 .272 .340 106 376  37  92  19   1   5  45  14  71   1   2   63
Wil Nieves        R    C   33   .231 .276 .313  65 182  14  42   7   1   2  19  11  32   1   0   57
Devin Ivany       R    C   28   .206 .268 .314  70 223  25  46  10   1   4  23  19  66   4   3   55
Pedro Lopez       R    SS  27   .220 .270 .284  98 313  34  69  12   1   2  24  21  55   3   3   49
Jamie Burke       R    C   39   .197 .244 .270  41 122   9  24   6   0   1   9   7  28   1   0   38

Defensive Projections

Player                  CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Ryan Zimmerman                                EX/87
Adam Dunn                    FR/179                          PO/203          PO/172
Josh Willingham                                               FR/87           FR/87
Mike Morse                    AV/96  PO/125  FR/111  PO/120   FR/66           FR/66
Josh Whitesell               VG/140
Ian Desmond                          AV/134          AV/171
Jesus Flores             AV
Roger Bernadina                                              VG/116   AV/86  AV/107
Jason Botts                  AV/171                          FR/124          FR/114
Adam Kennedy
Willie Harris                AV/126  AV/129  AV/125          AV/111
Nyjer Morgan                                                  EX/66  VG/130   EX/66
Chris Marrero                AV/228
Wilson Ramos             VG
Brian Bixler                         AV/137  AV/107  FR/100  AV/113  AV/118  AV/113
Danny Espinosa                        VG/94          VG/128
Justin Maxwell                                               AV/121  AV/121  AV/121
Leonard Davis                        PO/111  PO/160          AV/114  PO/155   FR/98
Luis Ordaz                            FR/91  FR/114
Derek Norris             VG
Michael Burgess                                                              AV/143
Alberto Gonzalez                      FR/98  VG/112  FR/129
Marvin Lowrance                                               PO/85           PO/85
Chase Lambin                 AV/123  FR/116  FR/136
Kevin Mench                  FR/123                           FR/94           FR/94
Seth Bynum                           AV/129  AV/110  FR/143
Pete Orr                             AV/117   FR/88  FR/108  AV/113   FR/97   AV/97
Chris Duncan                 FR/140                          FR/133          FR/133
Ivan Rodriguez           VG
Wil Nieves               FR
Devin Ivany              AV
Pedro Lopez                          VG/119  VG/128  AV/103  AV/134
Jamie Burke              AV  FR/121

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Stephen Strasburg R     22    3.06    13    6   23   23  123.7  103   42   11   40  140  134
Jordan Zimmermann R     25    3.94     4    3   19   18   89.0   82   39   10   33   79  104
LEAGUE AVERAGE————————————————————————————————————-  96
Livan Hernandez   R     36    4.33    10   11   30   30  187.0  206   90   17   59   99   94
Garrett Mock      R     28    4.52     5    6   26   15   89.7   95   45    9   36   73   91
John Lannan       L     26    4.56    10   12   32   32  189.7  209   96   20   66  101   90
Chien-Ming Wang   R     31    4.59     4    4   12   11   64.7   70   33    6   25   39   89
Jason Marquis     R     32    4.61     8    9   22   22  127.0  135   65   13   50   72   89
J.D. Martin       R     28    4.62     6    8   21   21  115.0  126   59   15   30   67   89
Brad Meyers       R     25    4.68     4    5   16   15   77.0   86   40    7   30   52   87
Chuck James       L     29    4.75     7    9   26   17  100.3  102   53   15   41   76   86
Craig Stammen     R     27    4.80     6    8   32   25  148.0  164   79   18   46   87   85
Scott Olsen       L     27    4.83     5    7   22   21  119.3  130   64   16   39   74   85
Shairon Martis    R     24    5.13     6   10   29   29  158.0  176   90   20   65   83   80
Ross Detwiler     L     25    5.26     5    8   23   22  102.7  123   60    9   48   69   78
Collin Balester   R     25    5.26     6   10   37   18  118.0  133   69   16   50   82   78
Erik Arnesen      R     27    5.45     7   12   33   23  138.7  169   84   18   47   80   75
Luis Atilano      R     26    5.45     5    9   22   19  102.3  124   62   13   37   47   75
Yunesky Maya      R     29    5.60     4    7   17   17   82.0   97   51    9   42   44   73
Matt Chico        L     28    5.74     4    7   20   20   95.7  116   61   13   40   51   71
Jeff Mandel       R     26    5.86     6   12   30   25  136.7  176   89   16   58   67   70
Ryan Tatusko      R     26    5.89     5   10   31   18  114.7  142   75   13   65   58   69
Andrew Kown       R     28    6.08     5   11   32   20  120.0  152   81   20   45   55   67
Aaron Thompson    L     24    6.17     5   13   28   28  140.0  179   96   18   71   76   66
Jason Jones       R     28    6.82     4   11   23   19   97.7  134   74   18   39   41   60

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age   ERA      W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K ERA+
Drew Storen       R     23    3.28     4    2   62    0   68.7   58   25    6   24   64  125
Tyler Clippard    R     26    3.31     9    5   77    0   92.3   71   34    9   45  105  123
Sean Burnett      L     28    3.46     4    2   74    0   65.0   55   25    6   29   60  118
Joel Peralta      R     35    3.60     3    2   55    0   65.0   58   26    8   20   57  114
LEAGUE AVERAGE————————————————————————————————————- 108
Doug Slaten       L     31    3.88     3    2   52    0   48.7   47   21    4   18   39  105
Victor Garate     L     26    3.88     1    1   46    0   48.7   42   21    5   27   47  105
Josh Wilkie       R     26    3.90     5    4   53    0   67.0   68   29    5   24   49  105
Tyler Walker      R     35    3.98     3    2   39    0   43.0   40   19    6   14   37  103
Miguel Batista    R     40    4.36     3    3   54    1   74.3   73   36    8   35   51   94
Jason Bergmann    R     29    4.50     5    5   60    0   60.0   59   30    8   28   51   91
Ryan Mattheus     R     27    4.63     2    2   22    0   23.3   23   12    3   12   19   88
Dan Leatherman    R     25    4.68     3    3   38    0   57.7   59   30    8   25   48   87
Zech Zinicola     R     26    5.12     3    4   43    0   51.0   57   29    5   27   35   80
Atahualpa SeverinoL     26    5.21     4    6   50    0   65.7   68   38    8   41   44   78
Joe Bisenius      R     28    5.22     2    3   34    0   39.7   42   23    4   26   32   78
Jesse English     L     26    5.23     2    3   45    0   43.0   46   25    5   28   30   78
Ron Villone       L     41    5.84     3    6   50    0   44.7   51   29    6   29   27   70
Adam Carr         R     27    6.16     3    7   48    3   68.7   83   47    9   43   42   66

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Ivan Rodriguez      .296  .332  .461  2605  9844  1377  2909   584    52   314  1358   517  1517   128   105
Ryan Zimmerman      .280  .346  .464  2522  9799  1466  2739   575    37   387  1438  1005  1660    60   114
Adam Dunn           .245  .366  .493  2410  8373  1312  2053   440    18   533  1421  1507  2621    67   124
Adam Kennedy        .273  .328  .381  1733  5686   709  1550   294    43    79   589   413   837   192    86
Josh Willingham     .255  .356  .448  1255  4225   582  1078   237    23   177   592   559   916    47   112

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Livan Hernandez    199  202    0    4.43  549  548     3574 3959 1758  393 1204 2153     95
Jason Marquis      127  126    1    4.58  389  329     2037 2126 1037  246  799 1174     94
John Lannan        110  127    0    4.36  339  338     2014 2137  976  222  712 1088     95

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Ryan Zimmerman    3B    50%  30%  13%   6%   2%       Ken McMullen       Brook Jacoby     Garrett Atkins
Adam Dunn         1B    31%  34%  17%  13%   6%        Carlos Pena        Ryan Howard        Jim Gentile
Josh Willingham   LF    22%  33%  20%  15%   9%        Woodie Held         Bob Bailey         Tim Salmon
Mike Morse        RF     6%  20%  22%  26%  26%        Matt LeCroy        Xavier Nady         Mike Brown
Josh Whitesell    1B     1%   4%   8%  27%  59%    Scott Stahoviak       Mark Johnson      Jerry Willard
Ian Desmond       SS     8%  17%  31%  27%  18%     Rafael Ramirez     Andujar Cedeno       Jeff Blauser
Jesus Flores      C      6%  20%  24%  30%  21%        Darryl Cias        Dusty Brown         David Ross
Roger Bernadina   RF     2%   5%   7%  16%  71%    Reggie Williams         Jeff Stone      Scott Lusader
Jason Botts       1B     1%   2%   5%  24%  67%         Tony Clark       Bobby Kielty     Larry Broadway
Adam Kennedy      2B     5%   7%  12%  24%  53%         Todd Haney        Jim Gantner        Jerry Lumpe
Willie Harris     LF     2%   4%   7%  16%  71%       Tommy McCraw     David Dellucci         Brad Tyler
Nyjer Morgan      CF     2%   5%  13%  28%  52%        Tom Goodwin       Dave Roberts        Jerry Owens
Chris Marrero     1B     1%   2%   3%  13%  81%        Juan Tejeda Luis De los Santos       Wes Bankston
Wilson Ramos      C      3%  10%  16%  31%  40%        Rod Barajas        Jorge Pedre      Richard Suomi
Brian Bixler      SS     3%   7%  19%  30%  42%       Tommy Murphy            Bo Hart      Royce Clayton
Danny Espinosa    SS     7%  10%  19%  26%  38%      Alex Gonzalez   Buddy Biancalana       James Greene
Justin Maxwell    CF     2%   4%  14%  29%  51%       Steve Howard      Brandon Boggs        Mike Murphy
Leonard Davis     LF     0%   1%   2%   7%  90%      Emmitt Cohick        Doug Devore         Van Snider
Luis Ordaz        2B     2%   1%   2%   8%  88%       Billy Martin         Garth Iorg         Pete Suder
Derek Norris      C      4%  10%  15%  27%  44%         Brian Deak         Tom WilsonMaximiliano Ramirez
Michael Burgess   RF     0%   1%   3%   6%  90%       Edgardo BaezChristopher Parmele       Jon Hamilton
Alberto Gonzalez  2B     0%   1%   1%   5%  93%        Tom Veryzer    Ever Magallanes    Robert Eenhoorn
Marvin Lowrance   LF     0%   0%   0%   1%  98%       Steve Carver        Corey Smith        Kevin Burns
Chase Lambin      3B     0%   1%   2%   6%  91%         Bryn Kosco  Trace Coquillette       Sean Mcnally
Kevin Mench       RF     0%   0%   0%   1%  98%      Alan Cockrell         Les Norman         Dan Howitt
Seth Bynum        2B     1%   1%   2%   7%  89%  Trace Coquillette        Tom Quinlan          Mike Bell
Pete Orr          3B     0%   0%   1%   3%  95%       Derek Wathan        Steve Hecht           Dan Rohn
Chris Duncan      1B     0%   0%   0%   2%  98%         Jay Gainer     James Clifford        Greg Sparks
Ivan Rodriguez    C      0%   1%   3%  10%  86%        Pat Borders    Benito Santiago        Joe Girardi
Wil Nieves        C      0%   0%   1%   5%  94%        Chris Ashby         Gary Green      Frank Charles
Devin Ivany       C      0%   0%   1%   5%  93%    Paul Chiaffredo        Dave Ullery   Tony DeFrancesco
Pedro Lopez       SS     0%   0%   0%   1%  99%         Les Dennis        Kyle Houser        Brad Hassey
Jamie Burke       C      0%   0%   0%   2%  97%          Tony Pena        Raul Chavez      Elston Howard

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Stephen Strasburg SP     91%    9%    0%         Mark Prior         Jake Peavy       Josh Beckett
Drew Storen       RP     51%   43%    6%      Antonio Osuna     Tom Niedenfuer        Jesse Crain
Tyler Clippard    RP     53%   43%    4%    Armando Benitez     Scott Garrelts       Mike Jackson
Sean Burnett      RP     42%   48%   10%        J.C. Romero         Will Ohman           Ray King
Joel Peralta      RP     31%   54%   15%    Jeff Montgomery       Jeff Reardon      Brian Drahman
Doug Slaten       RP     24%   50%   26%  Scott Schoeneweis       Randy Choate        Alan Embree
Victor Garate     RP     23%   49%   28%     Mitch Williams         Neal Cotts        Ron Villone
Josh Wilkie       RP     21%   55%   23%     David Wilhelmi  Hipolito Pichardo     Julian Tavarez
Jordan Zimmermann SP     39%   48%   12%          Ian Snell       Ben McDonald        Brett Myers
Tyler Walker      RP     23%   44%   33%    Jeff Montgomery       Jeff Reardon      Mike Trombley
Livan Hernandez   SP     17%   51%   32%         Sid Hudson         Mel Harder     Camilo Pascual
Miguel Batista    RP     18%   36%   45%        Don McMahon          Jose Mesa  Roberto Hernandez
Jason Bergmann    RP      5%   34%   61%         Jim Dorsey      Jimmy Serrano       Richie Lewis
Garrett Mock      SP     14%   46%   39%    Roy Lee Jackson       Sean Bergman        Mike Maddux
John Lannan       SP      6%   57%   37%        Bill Latham      Alfred Mathes         Jeff Mutis
Chien-Ming Wang   SP     16%   40%   44%      Joey Hamilton      Omar Olivares         Doc Medich
Jason Marquis     SP     11%   47%   42%      Omar Olivares     Kirk McCaskill     Larry Luebbers
J.D. Martin       SP     12%   46%   42%      Brian Meadows       Louis McCall        Josh Towers
Ryan Mattheus     RP     17%   33%   50%     Brandon Puffer       Joe Borowski    Derrick Turnbow
Brad Meyers       SP     10%   41%   49%    George Stablein         Mike Scott    Ben Hendrickson
Dan Leatherman    RP      3%   30%   67%     Keith Troutman         Paul Morse         Pat Neshek
Chuck James       SP      7%   39%   54%         Don Carman         Bruce Chen         John Tudor
Craig Stammen     SP      4%   40%   57%        Gary Wilson       Heath Totten            Joe Roa
Scott Olsen       SP      6%   37%   57%    John Rheinecker       Eddie Priest        Mike Maroth
Zech Zinicola     RP      2%   18%   80%    Jason Szuminski      Jordan DeJong     Don Timberlake
Shairon Martis    SP      1%   20%   79%           Tom Rowe     Steve Cummings    Scott Patterson
Atahualpa SeverinoRP      1%   16%   84%      Russ Rohlicek       Tom Thurberg     Scott Wiegandt
Joe Bisenius      RP      3%   20%   78%     Mike MacDougal         John Kiely     Ryan Henderson
Jesse English     RP      2%   16%   82%      Mike Williams          Tom Doyle      Russ Rohlicek
Ross Detwiler     SP      1%   23%   76%         Matt Smith     Derek Thompson       Heath Murray
Collin Balester   SP      0%    7%   93%       Luis Andujar       Mike Johnson      Steve Phoenix
Erik Arnesen      SP      0%   12%   88%      Tim Harikkala         Don August        Felipe Lira
Luis Atilano      SP      0%   11%   88%          Bill King    Cameron Reimers   Mike Christopher
Yunesky Maya      SP      1%   12%   87%     Brian Harrison       Jimmy Haynes    Carlos Chantres
Matt Chico        SP      0%    8%   92%        Lance Davis     David Davidson          Dave Otto
Ron Villone       RP      3%   10%   87%       Jeff Fassero        Don McMahon          Jose Mesa
Jeff Mandel       SP      0%    3%   97%       Marcus Jones        John Snyder    Nelson Figueroa
Ryan Tatusko      SP      0%    4%   96%      Julien Tucker        Ricky Steik        Bill Malloy
Andrew Kown       SP      0%    2%   98%      Tim McClaskey      Mike Hinckley      Todd Williams
Adam Carr         RP      0%    1%   99%           Al Osuna        Rick Greene    George Sherrill
Aaron Thompson    SP      0%    1%   99%         Mark Freed       Chris Seddon     Bruce Lockhart
Jason Jones       SP      0%    0%  100%     Kyle Middleton       Brad Ziegler       Nick Roberts

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Ryan Zimmerman          30%      31%      42%       9%       0%      33%      21%       0%
Adam Dunn                2%      34%      43%       1%       0%      64%      26%       0%
Josh Willingham          4%      30%      15%       0%       1%       2%       9%       0%
Mike Morse              19%       6%      12%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%
Josh Whitesell           2%      10%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Ian Desmond              4%       1%       2%       2%       5%       1%       1%       4%
Jesus Flores             8%       3%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Roger Bernadina          2%       1%       2%       0%       5%       1%       1%      12%
Jason Botts              2%       4%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Adam Kennedy             7%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       2%
Willie Harris            1%       6%       2%       0%       3%       0%       1%       1%
Nyjer Morgan            10%       3%       0%       0%      18%       0%       0%      68%
Chris Marrero            2%       1%       2%       7%       0%       5%       1%       0%
Wilson Ramos             7%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brian Bixler             1%       1%       0%       0%      10%       0%       0%       1%
Danny Espinosa           0%       0%       3%       1%      20%      12%       1%      11%
Justin Maxwell           0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%      10%
Leonard Davis            0%       0%       1%       0%      10%       1%       0%       0%
Luis Ordaz              11%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Derek Norris             0%       7%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Michael Burgess          0%       0%       1%       3%      15%       4%       0%       1%
Alberto Gonzalez         6%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Marvin Lowrance          0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chase Lambin             0%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Kevin Mench              1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Seth Bynum               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Pete Orr                 0%       0%       0%       0%      23%       0%       0%       3%
Chris Duncan             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ivan Rodriguez           2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Wil Nieves               2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Devin Ivany              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Pedro Lopez              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jamie Burke              1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Stephen Strasburg         63%        97%        96%         6%        83%
Drew Storen               51%        91%        64%         3%        88%
Tyler Clippard            46%        93%        96%         0%        66%
Sean Burnett              35%        83%        54%         0%        77%
Joel Peralta              24%        75%        42%        10%        50%
Doug Slaten               24%        67%        22%         5%        75%
Victor Garate             23%        64%        68%         0%        63%
Josh Wilkie               16%        64%         5%         4%        89%
Jordan Zimmermann         15%        62%        48%         2%        56%
Tyler Walker              23%        58%        40%        15%        45%
Livan Hernandez            4%        37%         1%         7%        82%
Miguel Batista            15%        50%         7%         1%        61%
Jason Bergmann             5%        32%        33%         0%        49%
Garrett Mock               2%        32%        18%         1%        67%
John Lannan                1%        21%         0%         2%        61%
Chien-Ming Wang            5%        32%         3%         5%        77%
Jason Marquis              2%        26%         0%         1%        66%
J.D. Martin                3%        27%         1%        30%        37%
Ryan Mattheus             17%        38%        23%         1%        75%
Brad Meyers                3%        27%         1%         1%        78%
Dan Leatherman             3%        27%        31%         1%        33%
Chuck James                1%        18%         9%         0%        20%
Craig Stammen              0%        13%         0%         6%        51%
Scott Olsen                1%        16%         0%         5%        32%
Zech Zinicola              1%        15%         3%         0%        78%
Shairon Martis             0%         4%         0%         0%        41%
Atahualpa Severino         1%        12%         1%         0%        52%
Joe Bisenius               1%        16%        28%         0%        54%
Jesse English              2%        13%         5%         0%        67%
Ross Detwiler              0%         6%         1%         0%        82%
Collin Balester            0%         4%         1%         0%        26%
Erik Arnesen               0%         2%         0%         2%        33%
Luis Atilano               0%         2%         0%         2%        36%
Yunesky Maya               0%         3%         0%         0%        61%
Matt Chico                 0%         1%         0%         0%        36%
Ron Villone                2%        10%         3%         0%        41%
Jeff Mandel                0%         0%         0%         0%        50%
Ryan Tatusko               0%         0%         0%         0%        62%
Andrew Kown                0%         0%         0%         1%         9%
Adam Carr                  0%         1%         0%         0%        50%
Aaron Thompson             0%         0%         0%         0%        40%
Jason Jones                0%         0%         0%         0%         7%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2011.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.29 ERA and the NL having a 4.14 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2010.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2011 Projections Archive
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
Oakland A’s
Texas Rangers
Florida Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks
Cleveland Indians

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 20, 2010 at 05:57 AM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: November 20, 2010 at 06:40 AM (#3694153)
And yes, I'm really, really sorry about Strasburg's unfortunate top comp.


Did you laugh even a little?

Zimmerman's top comp is pretty ugly, too.
   2. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 20, 2010 at 07:24 AM (#3694162)
Dan Passner mentioned that I forgot about Milone. Milone's 8-10, 4.59, 153 IP, 174 H, 15 HR, 42 BB, 100 K, ERA+ 89.
   3. fret Posted: November 20, 2010 at 08:31 AM (#3694166)
That makes 10 SP projected for an ERA between 4.50 and 5.00 (ERA+ 85-91). Pretty impressive depth if you ask me.
   4. fret Posted: November 20, 2010 at 08:41 AM (#3694167)
Number of SP projected for an ERA+ of 85 or higher:

PIT 5
SDP 6
OAK 8
TEX 11
FLA 5
ARI 8
CLE 5
WAS 13

Granted, these are the low payroll teams. Still, seems like the Nats are in decent-ish shape when it comes to pitching.
   5. danielj Posted: November 30, 2010 at 11:45 PM (#3699537)
I wish all of these Nats fans would just pipe down.
   6. LB813 Posted: December 06, 2010 at 02:57 PM (#3703796)
Can we get a Jason Werth projection now?
   7. Spahn Insane Posted: December 06, 2010 at 03:03 PM (#3703799)
And yes, I'm really, really sorry about Strasburg's unfortunate top comp.

That said, I'll take the under on his projected ERA for 2011...
   8. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 06, 2010 at 04:01 PM (#3703832)
Bullpen looks pretty good.
   9. Rays&Sox; Posted: December 22, 2010 at 05:02 PM (#3716012)
BA thinks Cole Kimball will get a chance to compete for a bullpen slot in ST. Can we add him to the list of guys to project for the final build?
   10. James Darnell's #1 Fan Posted: February 22, 2011 at 01:53 AM (#3755465)
This team actually looks pretty good, I mean, their offense looks solid but nothing special as well as their defense and pretty good pitching as well... good bullpen, should be a competitive team and battle Florida for 3rd place, me thinks.

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