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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, March 25, 2011

2011 ZiPS Projections, 3/25 Build

The ZiPS download can be found here.

The contents of the .zip archive are:


- ZiPS Projection Spreadsheet for Excel 2007, Consisting of just under 2200 projections, including defense.

- ZiPS Projection Spreadsheet for DMB, consisting of the above plus DMB-specific ratings (like ratings for speed, jump, etc)
- CSV files of batters and pitchers for people that do not have Excel 2007 or higher.


I am no longer uploading in Excel 97-03 format as there have been some compatibility issues when Excel 2010 saves into that format, at least with these spreadsheets.


Splits are not here, but they are on the DMB disk and will be in a final update here, for which I’ll leave a note.


This is the last chance, if you are a DMB player, to request additional players (there will be a fairly high threshold, the missing player has to be fairly significant for 2011) or to ask for a ruling on things like additional positions for the DMB disk.  Make these quickly, because one Luke Kraemer and I have the disk finalized, it will be impractical to make minor changes.

If the ZiPS projections have provided you value, I encourage to leave a tip with the donation button.  However, as Diamond Mind is releasing the disk this year, please do not include any donation for the projection disk itself.

I apologize for the relative lateness of the final disk for sim league commissioners.  Given that I do not have the ability to release rough drafts, I needed rosters to be as close to the start of the season as possible.  There can be quite a bit of difference between player rosters/lineups in mid-February and those in late-March (for example, the Mariners did not finish first on a later updates).

For those curious about team win projections, there’s a 13-page ZiPS feature in the 4/4 issue of ESPN the Magazine, which should be available on shelves now (the digital edition went live today).

If the ZiPS projections have provided you with value, I encourage to leave a tip with the donation button.  However, as Diamond Mind is releasing the DMB projection disk this year, please do not include any donation for the projection disk itself as I cannot put any donations towards the purchase of a disk.




Please remember the usual caveats - I project players for their most recent team where possible and ZiPS is not a predictor of what level players will play at, so many of the players listed will not get a single game in the majors (and some never will).

Dan Szymborski Posted: March 25, 2011 at 09:45 PM | 61 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: March 25, 2011 at 10:07 PM (#3778477)
Bump
   2. Kyle S at work Posted: March 25, 2011 at 10:34 PM (#3778485)
Awesome news about the ESPN mag feature! Can't wait to see it. The first time I have looked forward to something in that magazine... ever.
   3. Kyle S at work Posted: March 25, 2011 at 10:54 PM (#3778491)
Also, is there any way to include MLBAM id or something similar in the future? Or is that not something you're interested in providing?
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 25, 2011 at 10:58 PM (#3778495)
I actually had the minors.baseball-reference IDs in there for Sean (he had a fantasy draft), but didn't think anyone would be interested.

I could do MLBAM ids in the future - anyone have a good master list handy? With VLOOKUP, only have to manually change the name discrepancies (looking at you, Sea Bass Gonzalez).
   5. MrMet33 Posted: March 26, 2011 at 01:33 AM (#3778542)
Xavier Nady 1B projection. He's gotten some time there this spring.

I think Aaron Heilman should have a starter rating too. Looks like he'll be in the rotation to start the season.

Also, Lidge getting SP rating?
   6. steagles Posted: March 26, 2011 at 02:12 AM (#3778555)
Also, Lidge getting SP rating?
must be due to his rehab outings in the minors.
   7. monkhenry Posted: March 26, 2011 at 02:19 AM (#3778561)
Logan Morrison - LF rating
   8. Kyle S Posted: March 26, 2011 at 02:23 AM (#3778563)
I believe tango has an MLBAMid list, but I don't have it myself.

One other note - the first draft has saves, but this one doesn't. Is that on purpose or by accident?

By the way - none of my comments should be indicate anything other than deep gratitude for the work you do, Dan. I was happy to donate for this project and hope others do as well.
   9. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 26, 2011 at 02:26 AM (#3778568)
Many, many, many thanks Dan!
   10. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 26, 2011 at 03:32 AM (#3778596)
Lidge shouldn't have a starter rating and that will be removed.

I'll make sure these fixes go out on the final disk (I'll have it back in my hands to do roster stuff and don't need Luke to fix these things).
   11. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 26, 2011 at 03:34 AM (#3778598)
One other note - the first draft has saves, but this one doesn't. Is that on purpose or by accident?

The saves are just for display on the DMB disk so it doesn't look funny - they're simply the weighted averages of major league saves in years in which a person got at least 1 save in the majors. I in no way endorse these as "official" save projections, so I didn't put them in the non-DMB disk.
   12. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 26, 2011 at 03:35 AM (#3778599)
By the way - none of my comments should be indicate anything other than deep gratitude for the work you do, Dan. I was happy to donate for this project and hope others do as well.

No, I definitely appreciate it! The most constructive criticism I get, the better the final product will be.
   13. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: March 26, 2011 at 04:50 AM (#3778632)
I like these enhancements.

Requests:
Steven Tolleson - SS rating (primary position last year)
Edwin Encarnacion - 1B rating (he's adding it)
   14. Boxkutter Posted: March 26, 2011 at 08:23 AM (#3778662)
Owner in our league asked me to request Endy Chavez who is with the Rangers this season. Also maybe a CF rating for Chris Coghlan (I am guessing it will be something like Fair/140, and I don't plan on playing him there, but the coverage helps).

By the way, thanks for the awesome spreadsheets. Everything we need to at least get our teams line-ups and such sorted out. This will make it easier for owners to have that all ready for when the disk comes out. Great work, Dan.
   15. jadelman Posted: March 26, 2011 at 12:00 PM (#3778677)
Lidge shouldn't have a starter rating and that will be removed.


Especially considering that the disk will be later than usual this year (and no knocks against Dan for that; I'm just glad it's coming!), many DMB leagues will have already finalized rosters, and guys like Lidge may be slated as starting pitchers for some teams. Especially considering the PR durability rating Lidge would have been due to get, it doesn't do any/much harm to leave him as a reliever with that PR rating at SP for those seeking to follow along with the season, whereas it potentially does a lot more harm to league owners if you remove the rating at such a late date. Not to mention, there are an awful lot of fringe guys like Lidge in the exact same situation but just not as high-profile; are all of them going to be checked and changed as well?

It's just my two cents, though, and again - whatever happens with Lidge, I'm grateful to see ZiPS projections for another year and was happy to send in a donation.
   16. Vandy1Fan Posted: March 26, 2011 at 02:01 PM (#3778700)
How do I use this download with DMB?
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 26, 2011 at 02:37 PM (#3778712)
Especially considering that the disk will be later than usual this year (and no knocks against Dan for that; I'm just glad it's coming!), many DMB leagues will have already finalized rosters, and guys like Lidge may be slated as starting pitchers for some teams. Especially considering the PR durability rating Lidge would have been due to get, it doesn't do any/much harm to leave him as a reliever with that PR rating at SP for those seeking to follow along with the season, whereas it potentially does a lot more harm to league owners if you remove the rating at such a late date.

Hmm, I'll have to consider then.

However, this is the first mention I've made of Lidge's PR rating (I use PO in place of PR on spreadsheets so the eyes don't meld it with FR when scanning a list - mine do), so do you think leagues predicted ahead of time there's be a PR rating? After all, I projected Lidge to have 0 starts.
   18. BobbyS Posted: March 26, 2011 at 03:03 PM (#3778718)
I wouldn't think that should be a concern...accuracy should. Things have been added and altered throughout the process and any GM/participant in any sim league should understand that nothing is set in stone until the end. Just seems odd to leave something that doesn't belong for the aforementioned reasons.
   19. jfish26101 Posted: March 26, 2011 at 03:37 PM (#3778731)
For what it is worth, I agree with Bobby. Whoever signed Lidge because of the SP rating probably knew that wasn't correct when they signed him. They took a chance, the bug was fixed...the important thing is the finished product not what someone was trying to do because with an error to work the system.

I posted it on the DMB boards but thank you very much again for your hard work on this Dan. I hope the partnership between you and DMB can continue and results in a superior product.
   20. jadelman Posted: March 26, 2011 at 03:53 PM (#3778733)
If Lidge didn't actually get (properly) projected with a GS then I would completely understand him not getting the associated rating. My apologies; I misunderstood and thought he had been projected with one or more GS, and the idea of selectively picking which players from that group to retcon seemed problematic.
   21. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: March 26, 2011 at 05:13 PM (#3778766)
(Repeating a mention from 13,) Here are the guys who lack a rating at their listed position:

1B - Paul LoDuca
2B - Reegie Corona
2B - Brian Friday
3B - Brennan Boesch
SS - Steven Tolleson
LF - Don Kelly
   22. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 26, 2011 at 05:35 PM (#3778773)
OK, I'll take off the Lidge then (JF runs a league, so his input on these types of things is very valuable).

We didn't really get into it yet, but we're also hoping to explore some other projection disk ideas. For example, the feasibility of a mid-season disk or in the most extreme possibility, some kind of future mechanism to allow automatic daily updates.

The idea of a "retrojection" disk that we've talked about in the DMB forum once in a while is actually feasible.

For those not familiar with that concept, where a normal 1982 disk would have its ratings based on the 1982 season, we could actually do a blend of 1980-1984, with projection disk type slate of minor leaguers, in an attempt to nail down a "true talent level" type of disk for 1982.

One of the problems with normal season disks is that while you recapture the season, you're not really recapturing the underlying probabilities - a guy who hits .300 that has a higher probability of being a lucky .270 hitter than a true .300 hitter will hit .270-.330 most of the time on the disk instead of .240-.300. Obviously, true talent level is a fairly abstract concept and is never a set number, but it might be an interesting task.
   23. Vandy1Fan Posted: March 26, 2011 at 05:53 PM (#3778779)
I'm assuming that I need to wait for DMB to release the projection disk as it appears that the spreadsheet cannot be imported into the game. Am I correct?
   24. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 26, 2011 at 06:09 PM (#3778784)
Yes. They're generating the disk from my projections. Manually making a disk is a *lot* of work that I don't have enough time to do. Luke Kraemer can put it together a lot quicker than me - guy's a database guru and he literally had the playoff projection disk I did in October ready a couple of hours after I gave him the data.

I'm fairly certain that this will be released in v9 as well as v10 (though I'm not guaranteeing anything). For next year, there should be pitch types in there for v10 guys.
   25. Vandy1Fan Posted: March 26, 2011 at 06:14 PM (#3778786)
Thanks for the hard work, Dan. I'm anxious to get the disk and get started.

You got any idea when they will have it ready?
   26. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 26, 2011 at 07:09 PM (#3778798)

For those not familiar with that concept, where a normal 1982 disk would have its ratings based on the 1982 season, we could actually do a blend of 1980-1984, with projection disk type slate of minor leaguers, in an attempt to nail down a "true talent level" type of disk for 1982.


That would be fantastic and you would bet I would snatch up a lot of the late 80s/early 90s season disks that had that. I want to see Phil Hiatt hit 40 home runs and strike out 300 times.
   27. NY Expat Posted: March 27, 2011 at 12:52 AM (#3778926)
Dan, thanks a million for all your hard work on putting these disks together.

I have a question, though: Which stats on these sheets are normalized (at least for park), which I presume are the ones actually used by DMB? My best guess is that OPS+ and ERA+ are the only ones -- the rest look like they're incorporating park effects. For example: Carlos Gonzalez and Ryan Braun have very similar OBP and SLG, but CarGo's OPS+ is 121, while Braun's is 133.

The key is which stats are actually used by DMB. Thanks in advance!
   28. NY Expat Posted: March 27, 2011 at 01:22 AM (#3778946)
Addendm to above: Are there any IP/AB/GP based rules for determining injury rating? Our DMB league runs the sim for one month of the season at a time, so healthy front-line players have greater value than they otherwise might.
   29. MrMet33 Posted: March 27, 2011 at 05:26 PM (#3779211)
Possible Jake Fox 1B rating?
   30. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 27, 2011 at 08:37 PM (#3779289)
OPS+ and ERA+ are park-adjusted in and of themselves. Everything else incorporates park-effects.

Addendm to above: Are there any IP/AB/GP based rules for determining injury rating? Our DMB league runs the sim for one month of the season at a time, so healthy front-line players have greater value than they otherwise might.

I tend to give "Iron" to >150 G players and "Prone" to players <100 G (with a high PA/G to prevent subs from getting the rating). Same kind of thing for prone pitchers. I'm not giving any Iron out to pitchers - from a prediction standpoint, I don't think there's truly any such creature.
   31. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 27, 2011 at 08:40 PM (#3779291)
The key is which stats are actually used by DMB. Thanks in advance!

OPS+ is really for the rest of the people using projections, not the DMB guys (I would guess that people playing in DMB projection leagues are a very, very slim minority of people using these projections). Still useful for quick comparisons, of course.
   32. jfish26101 Posted: March 28, 2011 at 12:25 PM (#3779468)
I would be curious how many disks are normally sold/downloaded. DMB has made similar comments to the affect that projection sim leagues are an extremely small percentage of their business. Obviously those are the people I know but just in the small circle I'm in, I am aware of probably ~250 players out of just the leagues/guys I have associated with over the past 5 years. Unless you are selling upwards of 10,000 disks, I would have to think there is a decent percentage of people using the disks for this purpose.

Edit: Now not all of those people use the software/disk. My league for example, a little more than 2/3 just send in their MP on an excel sheet that I input into the software. Maybe that is why you and DMB feel projection sim leagues are such a small percentage of their business? They are still using the disk for sim projection purposes though.
   33. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: March 28, 2011 at 05:44 PM (#3779814)
Is DMB releasing the disk on their site? I see no mention of a 2011 Season projections on their site. Seems like they would want to advertise that.

Should we expect it this week?
   34. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 28, 2011 at 06:45 PM (#3779867)
Yes, DMB will be releasing the disk. Should be the end of the week as long as all the bugs are squashed. I'm hoping we can do a quick version without lineups/rotations for Sim League needs and an Opening Day update with rosters/lineups up-to-date.
   35. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 29, 2011 at 12:56 AM (#3780190)
The Carlos Hernandez that you projected is a different one than I asked about. I was interested in this guy: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hernan006car

All of the other 900 players I wanted to see look good. Thanks for all the hard work - it's much appreciated.
   36. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 31, 2011 at 03:36 PM (#3782241)
All of the other 900 players I wanted to see look good. Thanks for all the hard work - it's much appreciated.

Doh!

I have a *very* small window to do a few updates before release and I'll try to get him in if the time works out.
   37. Vandy1Fan Posted: April 01, 2011 at 02:15 AM (#3782914)
I thought DMB already had the projections and they would be releasing the disk this week?

Is this not true?
   38. Run Joe Run Posted: April 01, 2011 at 02:18 AM (#3782917)
I downloaded them today for my Baseball Manager draft next week. This year I won't have Bedard in my top ten.

Victor
   39. Ken015 Posted: April 03, 2011 at 03:46 PM (#3784984)
When will the splits be ready for prime time?
   40. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 04, 2011 at 01:25 AM (#3785456)
Any word? Seems odd that dmb isn't advertising or even providing any info or allowing for presales.
   41. Vandy1Fan Posted: April 04, 2011 at 04:33 PM (#3785779)
I gave up on them. I'm going to find something else. I emailed them and told them they lost me as a customer. There is no excuse for the lousy customer service that they have.
I'm surprised they are still in business.
   42. Ken015 Posted: April 04, 2011 at 05:38 PM (#3785838)
I gave up on them. I'm going to find something else. I emailed them and told them they lost me as a customer. There is no excuse for the lousy customer service that they have.
I'm surprised they are still in business.


Their total disregard for their customers is puzzling. All they needed to do is say when the product was to be available (use a late date, if it's early great) and they would have avoided all the bad feelings they have created. It's a shame really because several leagues have already switched from DMB and more will follow, even non-projection based leagues. People generally don't like being treated as if they don't matter.
   43. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: April 04, 2011 at 06:08 PM (#3785864)
The idea of a "retrojection" disk that we've talked about in the DMB forum once in a while is actually feasible.

This would be way awesome! Several years ago, I tried very briefly to run MLE's for some minor leaguers for the 1988 season with the idea of adding them to the DMB disk. It took me so long to finish the Rangers that I just gave up on the idea.

I've got some custom developed tools (not KADU) to automate the creation and population of player stats and ratings and -- depending on my grad school commitments -- would be happy to help turn Excel DMB "cards" into player cards within the game for these retrojection disks.
   44. guyute Posted: April 04, 2011 at 07:02 PM (#3785914)
It's a shame really because several leagues have already switched from DMB and more will follow, even non-projection based leagues. People generally don't like being treated as if they don't matter.


Can you (anyone) suggest some other simulation, projection based programs that are an alternative to DMB?

We have a 6 year old league with 30 teams that has always used DMB but it seems to me that the writing is on the wall as far as any continued support from this company. I agree with the sentiments above, their treatment of their most loyal customers is half assed at best.
   45. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 04, 2011 at 07:24 PM (#3785937)
ALL I WANT TO DO IS GIVE YOU MY MONEY, WHY WON'T YOU TAKE IT????
   46. nemodomi Posted: April 04, 2011 at 09:32 PM (#3786045)
Someone told me that he'd seen "in Dan's blog" (?!) a mention that the "disk" appeared due to be released early this week (which would be today or tomorrow or -- at a real stretch of "early" -- Wednesday. Has anyone seen such a blog/mention? I couldn't find it anywhere.
   47. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 04, 2011 at 09:46 PM (#3786059)
I believe he meant this thread.
   48. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 05, 2011 at 02:47 AM (#3786233)
So what exactly would we be paying for in a projection disk? I mean, ZIPs info is all public info courtesy of Dan. All they're doing is entering in the info, right? What is stopping a group of us from parceling out the work and doing this ourselves?
   49. Jagfire Posted: April 05, 2011 at 02:58 AM (#3786237)
Any idea when ZiPS rest-of-season updates come out?
   50. Dan Szymborski Posted: April 05, 2011 at 04:06 AM (#3786262)
Someone told me that he'd seen "in Dan's blog" (?!) a mention that the "disk" appeared due to be released early this week (which would be today or tomorrow or -- at a real stretch of "early" -- Wednesday. Has anyone seen such a blog/mention? I couldn't find it anywhere.

I know Luke's working on it right now (well, not right now, but he's been putting it together today). My schedule and Luke's haven't meshed (he's got a full-time job and can't just drop everything everytime I have something ready for him). Now that I know the timeframe me and him need to make this work, we can be more prompt next year.

Any idea when ZiPS rest-of-season updates come out?

I haven't given Dave the updated park factors yet. They're not really meaningful yet, so we usually don't have those running the first week.
   51. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 05, 2011 at 12:44 PM (#3786327)

I know Luke's working on it right now (well, not right now, but he's been putting it together today). My schedule and Luke's haven't meshed (he's got a full-time job and can't just drop everything everytime I have something ready for him). Now that I know the timeframe me and him need to make this work, we can be more prompt next year.


Is there any kind of ETA? Some time this week? Next week? End of April? Even if its late, at least we would know when to expect it.
   52. guyute Posted: April 05, 2011 at 01:41 PM (#3786351)
I emailed DMB on Friday, they said early next week. But they said that last week too so who really knows.
   53. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 05, 2011 at 02:22 PM (#3786392)

I emailed DMB on Friday, they said early next week. But they said that last week too so who really knows.


Wow, you got a reply email? Are you like a VIP or something?
   54. guyute Posted: April 05, 2011 at 04:48 PM (#3786612)
I'm kind of a big deal. I have many leather bound books and my apartment smells of rich mahogany.

They've actually been fairly responsive the few times I've actually had to contact them.
   55. bbwsmin Posted: April 06, 2011 at 10:21 AM (#3787537)
Does anyone know what the cost of the projection disk is going to be once it is released?
   56. nemodomi Posted: April 06, 2011 at 09:20 PM (#3788144)
@bbwsmin: I reckon 30 bucks.
   57. NY Expat Posted: April 07, 2011 at 01:04 PM (#3788923)
Dan (or anyone else):

Is there a list of park factors that are used to generate the stats for these projections? My draft is on Saturday, and since it looks like the disk won't be out by then, I'm thinking I could reverse engineer the normalized stats.

I noticed in the St. Louis writeup Dan says: "I've switched over to using runs created park factors - it's more predictive than run park factors.", so lmgtfy won't be very effective.
   58. Boxkutter Posted: April 07, 2011 at 09:21 PM (#3789640)
http://fansofdmb.yuku.com/topic/1160/2011-projection-question?page=7

They are saying now that a Sim League version should be out sometime late tomorrow, and a Final version will be out on Wednesday. Now, they have delayed the release a couple times already, so we can't get too excited, but at least it is some sort of communication.

Now, for the important question... does anyone know of any other simulators that are projection and not just replay? I think all sim league owners have to start preparing themselves for the possibility that DMB will stop releasing a disk by 2012 or 2013. The continuing lack of communication and importance they are giving customers has to worry us all. This is the ninth year our league has been in existence and we have a dedicated group of owners. I don't want to see my league die because I placed all my eggs in the DMB basket.
   59. VK_Ratliff Posted: April 07, 2011 at 10:13 PM (#3789687)
Action! PC does a projection disk. However, the "disk" is inferior to ZiPS, and the game itself is inferior to DMB.

I cannot figure out if it's possible to use OOTP with a projection-disk type roster (one cut off from all the other things going on in OOTP).

SOM, I'd guess, will never introduce a projection-type disk.
   60. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 08, 2011 at 02:12 PM (#3790115)
Next year I think we should organize about 6-7 of us to load teams up ourselves - all it takes is putting ZIPS into the stats right?. The only thing we wouldn't have is splits.
   61. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 09, 2011 at 01:46 AM (#3791247)
Friday evening - no disk yet. If its not here by midnight, I'm going to shut down the federal government.

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