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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, December 22, 2011

2012 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves

Despite the disappointing final month of the season (to put it lightly), the Braves are still a dangerous team.  The pitching staff is young and quite deep and rather than try to emulate the Braves success developing pitchers, I think it’s reached the point at which other organizations should simply abduct all the people that work on player development and simply force them to scout and train prospects, at knifepoint if need be.  Or, I guess, they could hire them, but that’s slower.

While two of Atlanta’s best hitters are very young, there are still some concerns about the offense going forward.  The team can’t count on Chipper forever - at his age, even if he doesn’t make good on his yearly threat to retire, he could simply have a decline.  With the team not being aggressive financially, the Uggla signing is a real problem, though not one they can really do anything about at this point.  At the time, I argued that the Braves were going to pay for Uggla’s decline, and while that doesn’t appear wrong yet, it’s also had a nasty chain effect in the lineup.  The mediocre, overpaid second baseman pushed the perfectly adequate incumbent second baseman into left, where he had less value and now that contract is hindering the Braves from going after a real hitter in the outfield, such as Carlos Beltran.  And given Uggla’s age and defense, if Andrelton Simmons fares well in his next stop, Uggla may be the third-best middle infielder on the Braves by 2013, with 3 years and $39 million remaining on his contract.

So the Braves are going to have to bite the bullet and make some tough decisions with their pitchers.  As tempting as it is to have an awesome surplus of pitchers, at the major league level, and in the minors, surpluses can easily evaporate if you don’t use them.  Jair Jurrjens is the source of a lot of trade rumors and that’s the right idea - Jurrjens is probably the pitcher with the best ratio of prospects he can fetch vs. surplus value if the Braves keep him.  Hanson’s the better pitcher if healthy and if they traded him now, they’d be selling at the lower; Hanson’s the one with ace potential, so the lottery ticket worth hanging onto.

Next Up: Colorado Rockies

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Brian McCann      L    C    28   .270 .354 .458 140 493  58 133  27   0  22  79  61  93   4   2  119
Freddie Freeman   L    1B   22   .279 .344 .455 156 549  72 153  32   1  21  83  52 122   5   4  115
Jason Heyward     L    RF   22   .255 .360 .427 146 487  71 124  25   4  17  61  75 115  12   4  113
Chipper Jones     B    3B   40   .260 .343 .438 102 361  45  94  23   1  13  54  48  64   3   1  110
Dan Uggla         R    2B   32   .248 .330 .451 150 557  83 138  24   1  29  82  65 147   2   3  110
Martin Prado      R    LF   28   .281 .325 .417 136 545  76 153  32   3  12  61  36  68   4   5  100
Michael Bourn     L    CF   29   .270 .331 .354 155 622  94 168  28   9   2  46  55 128  56  13   86
Christopher CarterL    LF   29   .268 .312 .416 119 385  37 103  19   1  12  57  24  58   1   1   96
David Ross        R    C    35   .239 .333 .413  54 138  15  33   7   1   5  22  19  43   0   1  102
Eric Hinske       L    LF   34   .234 .316 .413 108 235  30  55  12   0  10  33  27  68   1   1   96
Joseph TerdoslavicB    1B   23   .240 .288 .411 155 584  62 140  40   3  18  74  38 152   1   0   87
Matt Diaz         R    RF   34   .255 .307 .375 101 259  30  66  12   2   5  31  15  60   5   2   84
Tyler Pastornicky R    SS   22   .261 .311 .363 146 568  75 148  21   5   9  53  41  85  28  12   82
Jordan Parraz     R    RF   27   .248 .318 .373 126 459  59 114  25   4   8  50  37  98   6   6   87
Brooks Conrad     B    3B   32   .223 .296 .386 107 233  32  52  12   1   8  33  23  74   5   1   84
Drew Sutton       B    2B   29   .238 .320 .355 102 324  39  77  19   2   5  35  36  86   4   3   83
Stefan Gartrell   R    RF   28   .227 .285 .393 136 512  60 116  24   2  19  71  37 158   4   2   82
Jose Constanza    L    LF   28   .263 .310 .322 130 475  67 125   8   7   2  35  32  73  27   9   72
Mauro Gomez       R    1B   27   .234 .281 .386 137 534  57 125  29   2  16  70  31 173   3   1   79
Josh Wilson       R    SS   31   .241 .288 .351 103 291  35  70  16   2   4  27  13  59   4   1   72
Ruben Gotay       B    2B   29   .228 .321 .330 130 430  52  98  16   2   8  43  58 100   5   4   78
Adam Milligan     L    RF   24   .221 .271 .395  67 258  24  57  12   3   9  29  14  97   2   2   78
Andrelton Simmons R    SS   22   .274 .309 .348 156 621  72 170  29   7   1  51  29  61  21  21   78
Jack Wilson       R    2B   34   .257 .289 .330  83 261  30  67  14   1   1  22  12  39   4   2   68
Brandon Hicks     R    SS   26   .202 .272 .348 128 425  50  86  16   2  14  42  37 165   9   3   67
Julio Lugo        R    SS   36   .236 .293 .308  64 182  20  43   6   2   1  18  14  37   4   2   64
Shawn Bowman      R    3B   27   .221 .263 .349  97 358  36  79  15   2   9  31  18 119   2   2   65
Mycal Jones       R    CF   25   .209 .279 .321 129 507  66 106  26   2   9  44  44 160  14   6   63
Luis Durango      B    CF   26   .244 .318 .272 140 463  69 113   7   3   0  29  49  86  28  14   62
Wes Helms         R    3B   36   .216 .278 .295  98 190  17  41   7   1   2  21  13  53   0   1   56
J.C. Boscan       R    C    32   .203 .257 .259  74 251  19  51  11   0   1  16  16  63   1   1   41

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Brian McCann             AV
Freddie Freeman
Jason Heyward                                                        FR/144  EX/120
Chipper Jones                                 FR/94
Dan Uggla                            FR/114
Martin Prado                  VG/99   FR/79   AV/93           AV/98
Michael Bourn                                                         VG/73
Christopher Carter           FR/122                          FR/125          FR/125
David Ross               AV
Eric Hinske                   AV/93          PO/108           AV/87           AV/83
Joseph Terdoslavich          FR/122          PO/112
Matt Diaz                                                    AV/106          AV/104
Tyler Pastornicky                    VG/118          AV/133
Jordan Parraz                                                 AV/94          VG/136
Brooks Conrad                AV/114  FR/124  FR/110  FR/111
Drew Sutton                   VG/88  FR/107  FR/111   PO/99  AV/133          FR/120
Stefan Gartrell                                               AV/96           AV/96
Jose Constanza                                               VG/106  AV/123   AV/75
Mauro Gomez                  FR/137          PO/115
Josh Wilson                  AV/117   AV/99  AV/108  AV/122  AV/117
Ruben Gotay                   AV/99  FR/138  FR/123
Adam Milligan                                                AV/110          AV/114
Andrelton Simmons                                    VG/120
Jack Wilson                           AV/94  VG/116   VG/83
Brandon Hicks                AV/115  AV/106  VG/104  AV/134
Julio Lugo                            PO/89  FR/101  PO/112  FR/118
Shawn Bowman                 AV/105          AV/134
Mycal Jones                                          PO/197          VG/106
Luis Durango                                                 VG/115  AV/134  VG/115
Wes Helms                    AV/116          FR/110
J.C. Boscan              VG

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Tommy Hanson      R      25     3.20    13    7   29   29   171.3  146   61   16   54  170   122
Brandon Beachy    R      25     3.32     8    5   26   26   152.0  133   56   15   48  166   118
Tim Hudson        R      36     3.60    11    8   26   26   162.7  156   65   14   47  107   109
Jair Jurrjens     R      26     3.81    11    8   25   25   156.0  153   66   15   51  105   103
Julio Teheran     R      21     3.85    11    9   28   27   152.0  146   65   13   58  121   102
Mike Minor        L      24     4.04     9    8   32   32   178.3  174   80   20   62  168    97
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Arodys Vizcaino   R      21     4.11     8    8   22   22   105.0  107   48   10   33   79    95
J.J. Hoover       R      24     4.19     7    7   37   20   116.0  114   54   11   53  102    94
Randall Delgado   R      22     4.76     7    9   29   29   151.3  156   80   20   69  121    82
Yohan Flande      L      26     4.94     7    9   28   22   133.0  161   73   11   45   74    79
Zeke Spruill      R      22     4.95     7    9   23   22   125.3  146   69   14   39   63    79
Todd Redmond      R      27     5.05     7   10   26   25   144.3  157   81   23   51  102    78
Erik Cordier      R      26     5.88     5   10   23   22   101.0  115   66   12   72   63    67
Chris Masters     L      24     6.03     5    9   27   24   125.3  144   84   19   81   82    65

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Craig Kimbrel     R      24     2.21     6    2   73    0    73.3   46   18    5   39  116   177
Jonny Venters     L      27     2.77     6    2   83    0    84.3   64   26    5   41   94   141
Eric O’Flaherty   L      27     2.93     3    2   73    0    61.3   54   20    4   20   54   134
Cristhian MartinezR      30     3.61     3    2   49    0    72.3   69   29    7   17   57   109
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Peter Moylan      R      33     3.79     3    3   52    0    40.3   37   17    3   21   36   103
Jairo Asencio     R      28     3.82     4    3   56    0    66.0   62   28    6   27   63   103
Scott Linebrink   R      35     3.96     4    3   53    0    52.3   51   23    6   18   46    99
Cory Gearrin      R      26     4.10     4    3   53    0    68.0   64   31    6   31   61    96
Anthony Varvaro   R      27     4.26     4    4   52    0    67.7   58   32    6   50   67    92
Jaye Chapman      R      25     4.33     3    3   50    0    62.3   59   30    6   35   59    90
Stephen Marek     R      28     4.36     2    2   33    0    33.0   31   16    3   18   29    90
Dusty Hughes      L      30     4.72     2    3   52    4    68.7   71   36    7   35   56    83
Adam Russell      R      29     4.73     3    4   55    0    59.0   60   31    5   35   41    83
Billy Bullock     R      24     4.81     3    4   55    0    58.0   55   31    6   43   62    81
Dustin Richardson L      28     4.90     2    2   50    0    60.7   58   33    7   45   58    80
Rowdy Hardy       L      29     4.94     3    4   38    0    62.0   73   34    6   24   36    79
Robert Fish       L      24     5.15     2    3   37    0    43.7   45   25    6   25   39    76

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Chipper Jones        .301  .397  .525  2584  9297  1645  2795   572    40   478  1663  1543  1478   154   139
Brian McCann         .269  .344  .443  2236  7909   877  2127   444     2   309  1220   858  1255    66   110
Jason Heyward        .253  .373  .435  2475  8100  1242  2050   431    65   304  1043  1462  1851   169   119
Dan Uggla            .251  .329  .450  1850  6970  1045  1747   337    19   338   997   767  1678    31   107
Michael Bourn        .269  .329  .353  1615  6009   883  1615   261    82    27   424   523  1184   487    85
Martin Prado         .281  .327  .414  1276  4931   671  1388   298    24   102   536   335   575    31   100
Julio Lugo           .267  .331  .380  1434  4991   713  1334   246    36    81   498   456   923   203    85

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Tim Hudson            235  144    0    3.54  513  514     3351 3188 1317  278 1010 2228    119
Tommy Hanson          177  108    0    3.25  404  404     2407 2034  869  248  762 2419    121
Jair Jurrjens         158  124    0    3.73  381  381     2338 2258  969  231  792 1613    106

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Brian McCann      C      59%  29%   9%   3%   0%       Dave Nilsson     Johnny Edwards     Darrell Porter
Freddie Freeman   1B     13%  28%  21%  24%  14%         Kent Hrbek       Billy Butler         Will Clark
Jason Heyward     RF     22%  29%  18%  16%  14%         Dave Clark       Matt Winters          Sid Bream
Chipper Jones     3B     19%  27%  24%  19%  12%        Gary Gaetti       Ken Caminiti            Ron Cey
Dan Uggla         2B     40%  20%  17%  15%   8%    Rico Petrocelli      Cecil Fielder         Troy Glaus
Martin Prado      LF      1%   9%  15%  27%  48%       Johnny Groth          John Gall      Luis Montanez
Michael Bourn     CF     15%  19%  28%  23%  15%      Vince Coleman        Omar Moreno       Kenny Lofton
Christopher CarterLF      2%   6%  12%  24%  56%          Dee Brown        Daryle Ward          Jim Bowie
David Ross        C      16%  24%  23%  24%  13%         Tom Wilson        Jim Leyritz      Damian Miller
Eric Hinske       LF      3%   8%  12%  23%  54%      Paul Sorrento       Kevin Barker         Mike Hegan
Joseph Terdoslavic1B      0%   3%   6%  22%  69%        Drew Denson         Jason Hart     Todd Benzinger
Matt Diaz         RF      1%   3%   5%  12%  80%       Hector Lopez          Gary Ward     Jason Michaels
Tyler Pastornicky SS      9%  12%  22%  25%  31%   Jonathan Herrera       Omar Infante    Adrian Cardenas
Jordan Parraz     RF      0%   2%   5%  13%  80%  Jordan Czarniecki        Dan Peltier        Chris Nowak
Brooks Conrad     3B      2%   7%  13%  24%  55%    Scott Stahoviak        Cody Ransom         Dave McKay
Drew Sutton       2B      3%   5%  10%  22%  60%       Bobby Scales         Dick Green      Bret Barberie
Stefan Gartrell   RF      0%   1%   3%   9%  86%  John-Ford Griffin       Dan Grummitt          Greg Sain
Jose Constanza    LF      0%   1%   2%   6%  91%     Kerry Robinson       Nyjer Morgan       Alex Sanchez
Mauro Gomez       1B      0%   0%   1%  10%  88%          Terry Lee       Ryan Mulhern         Chris Cron
Josh Wilson       SS      2%   3%  11%  24%  60%        Eddie Zosky    Kevin Polcovich     Travis Dawkins
Ruben Gotay       2B      3%   2%   4%  13%  77%         Mark Kiger        Jeff Patzke     Casey Benjamin
Adam Milligan     RF      0%   1%   2%   7%  89%         Ron Kittle        Doug Frobel        Jim Edmonds
Andrelton Simmons SS      0%   2%   9%  22%  66%            Chin Hu          Steve Sax      Ozzie Guillen
Jack Wilson       2B      0%   1%   2%   6%  92%         Garth Iorg    Alvaro Espinoza       Billy Martin
Brandon Hicks     SS      1%   3%   8%  18%  70%        Cody Ransom       Blake Whealy   Kelly Dransfeldt
Julio Lugo        SS      1%   1%   3%   9%  86%      Mark Belanger          Jose Cruz     Casey Candaele
Shawn Bowman      3B      0%   1%   1%   3%  95%         Aaron Herr    Juan Richardson       Raul Tablado
Mycal Jones       CF      0%   0%   2%   6%  92%      Gary Crabtree     Michael Thomas        Jeremy Ware
Luis Durango      CF      0%   0%   1%   5%  94%        Dennis Webb          Alex Cole    Carl Loadenthal
Wes Helms         3B      0%   0%   1%   1%  97%       Jeff Branson         Jason Wood       Jim Morrison
J.C. Boscan       C       0%   0%   0%   0% 100%     Charlie Greene       Chad Moeller  George Mitterwald

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Craig Kimbrel     RP      89%     6%     5%       Mark Littell        Gregg OlsonFrancisco Rodriguez
Jonny Venters     RP      72%    23%     5%     Mitch Williams         Rod Scurry         Tug McGraw
Eric O’Flaherty   RP      62%    33%     5%     Steve Hamilton      Scott Stewart        Dave Leiper
Tommy Hanson      SP      73%    22%     5%       Josh Beckett         Jake Peavy         David Nied
Brandon Beachy    SP      67%    28%     5%       Josh Beckett          Bob Welch         Jake Peavy
Tim Hudson        SP      46%    43%    11%       Johnny Allen     Orel Hershiser         Derek Lowe
Cristhian MartinezRP      25%    54%    21%          Dan Giese           Jeff Tam     Larry Andersen
Peter Moylan      RP      29%    38%    33%       Toby Borland         Kane Davis           Don Aase
Jair Jurrjens     SP      33%    56%    11%           Joe Mays         Mike Scott      Greg Brummett
Jairo Asencio     RP      23%    51%    26%        Colter Bean          Mark Acre    Ricky Bottalico
Kris Medlen       RP      16%    55%    30%      Rusty Meacham        Terry Leach        Geoff Geary
Julio Teheran     SP      35%    54%    11%        Kevin Brown     Jason Jennings     Todd Eggertsen
Scott Linebrink   RP      16%    46%    38%   Randy St. Claire         Rick White   Kerry Ligtenberg
Mike Minor        SP      24%    58%    18%       Jeff Francis       Mark Guthrie         Randy Wolf
Cory Gearrin      RP      10%    51%    39%           Sal Urso      J.J. Trujillo        Brad Salmon
Arodys Vizcaino   SP      22%    55%    23%       Mark Knudson  Scott Chiamparino       Marty Janzen
J.J. Hoover       SP      18%    52%    29%         Jeff Jones         Ken Howell         Brian Wood
Anthony Varvaro   RP       7%    43%    50%       Bart Miadich         Jim Stoops      Doug Bochtler
Jaye Chapman      RP       6%    37%    57%       Ryan Bukvich   Santiago Ramirez       Billy Sadler
Stephen Marek     RP      12%    35%    53%     Doug Robertson    Franklyn German      Steve Schmoll
Dusty Hughes      RP       1%    21%    78%     C.J. Nitkowski     Randy Williams         Tim Adkins
Adam Russell      RP       3%    26%    70%       Jake Robbins   Jarod Juelsgaard     Ryan Henderson
Randall Delgado   SP       3%    32%    65%        Kevin Gross      Ryan Dempster        Boof Bonser
Billy Bullock     RP       3%    21%    77%      Dana Ridenour    Franklyn German     Chris Schroder
Dustin Richardson RP       2%    16%    82%        Kevin Tolar      Greg McCarthy  Eric Eckenstahler
Rowdy Hardy       RP       1%    17%    82%        Jon Switzer        Mark Watson      John Cummings
Yohan Flande      SP       1%    22%    77%       Jeff Johnson         Jeff Mutis   Bobby Livingston
Zeke Spruill      SP       1%    24%    75%       Nate Cornejo         Tim Kester       Sergio Mitre
Todd Redmond      SP       1%    17%    82%        Mike Oquist      Joe Slusarski      Travis Harper
Robert Fish       RP       2%    16%    82%      Jerry Blevins      Scott Holcomb         Jesus Pena
Luis Avilan       RP       0%     6%    94%        John Thomas       Renay Bryand        Steve Kline
Steven Shell      RP       0%     6%    93%      Barry Johnson       Mike Villano       Alan Fowlkes
Erik Cordier      SP       0%     2%    98%    Doug Gogolewski        Edwin Morel      Mark Woodyard
Chris Masters     SP       0%     1%    99%        Brian Adams      Andrew Martin          Lex Luger

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Brian McCann            11%      21%      18%       1%       0%      13%      12%       0%
Freddie Freeman         18%      13%      20%      10%       0%      19%      10%       0%
Jason Heyward            5%      30%       8%       1%       4%       4%       8%       4%
Chipper Jones            9%      15%       9%       0%       0%       0%       6%       0%
Dan Uggla                2%       5%      14%       0%       0%      43%       6%       0%
Martin Prado            19%       2%       1%       4%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Michael Bourn           11%       5%       0%       2%      44%       0%       0%      96%
Christopher Carter       9%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
David Ross               6%      15%       7%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%
Eric Hinske              2%       3%       4%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Joseph Terdoslavic       0%       0%       2%      27%       1%       4%       0%       0%
Matt Diaz                6%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Tyler Pastornicky        5%       1%       3%       1%       9%       2%       1%      34%
Jordan Parraz            2%       2%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%       0%
Brooks Conrad            1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Drew Sutton              1%       3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Stefan Gartrell          0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%
Jose Constanza           6%       1%       0%       0%      17%       0%       0%      31%
Mauro Gomez              0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       2%       0%       0%
Josh Wilson              2%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ruben Gotay              1%       3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Adam Milligan            1%       0%       3%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Andrelton Simmons       12%       0%       0%       4%      24%       0%       0%      16%
Jack Wilson              7%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brandon Hicks            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Julio Lugo               3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Shawn Bowman             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Mycal Jones              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Luis Durango             1%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%      37%
Wes Helms                1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
J.C. Boscan              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Craig Kimbrel             90%        95%        99%         0%        94%
Jonny Venters             69%        93%        94%         0%        97%
Eric O'Flaherty           54%        90%        43%        11%        95%
Tommy Hanson              38%        90%        81%         3%        77%
Brandon Beachy            33%        85%        96%         5%        72%
Tim Hudson                14%        68%         4%        12%        84%
Cristhian Martinez        19%        68%        16%        44%        69%
Peter Moylan              21%        58%        45%         0%        85%
Jair Jurrjens              7%        62%         1%         3%        71%
Jairo Asencio             17%        60%        66%         1%        76%
Kris Medlen               12%        65%        23%         7%        71%
Julio Teheran              8%        61%        14%         0%        84%
Scott Linebrink           11%        46%        42%         9%        62%
Mike Minor                 5%        50%        67%         1%        57%
Cory Gearrin               7%        46%        48%         0%        84%
Arodys Vizcaino            5%        48%         7%         6%        74%
J.J. Hoover                3%        41%        39%         0%        75%
Anthony Varvaro            5%        36%        77%         0%        84%
Jaye Chapman               4%        36%        65%         0%        69%
Stephen Marek             12%        37%        47%         0%        75%
Dusty Hughes               1%        17%        20%         0%        67%
Adam Russell               2%        18%         6%         0%        81%
Randall Delgado            0%         9%        13%         0%        29%
Billy Bullock              2%        18%        89%         0%        59%
Dustin Richardson          1%        13%        67%         0%        67%
Rowdy Hardy                1%        14%         0%         2%        80%
Yohan Flande               0%         6%         0%         3%        90%
Zeke Spruill               0%         6%         0%         6%        60%
Todd Redmond               0%         4%         1%         1%        11%
Robert Fish                1%        13%        46%         0%        46%
Luis Avilan                0%         3%         1%         0%        37%
Steven Shell               0%         3%         2%         1%        24%
Erik Cordier               0%         0%         0%         0%        45%
Chris Masters              0%         0%         0%         0%        18%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
Astros
Cardinals
Dodgers
Twins
Giants
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 22, 2011 at 08:40 PM | 28 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Boxkutter Posted: December 22, 2011 at 09:38 PM (#4022135)
Can we get a defensive rating for Freeman? BTW- Love his projections for this year. Hope he can meet and exceed them.
   2. JJ1986 Posted: December 22, 2011 at 09:58 PM (#4022163)
Nice projection for Beachy.
   3. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 22, 2011 at 10:06 PM (#4022174)
AV/89 - didn't enter it in, apparently (Freeman at 1B)
   4. The Hal Lanier Hitting Academy Posted: December 22, 2011 at 10:24 PM (#4022202)
Jeez, those comps for Heyward (Dave Clark, Matt Winters & Sid Bream) are brutal.
   5. Good cripple hitter Posted: December 22, 2011 at 10:31 PM (#4022212)
Chris Masters SP 0% 1% 99% Brian Adams Andrew Martin Lex Luger


Can the Braves afford to pay him to pitch? I don't know!

Edit: seriously though, Crush, Test, and Luger? Those are some horrible wrestling comps. If the baseball Masterpiece dies young and/or is involved in the death of (for example) Chipper Jones' ex-wife, I'm going to have to cite his ZiPS projection and say you saw it coming.
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 22, 2011 at 10:36 PM (#4022223)
Jeez, those comps for Heyward (Dave Clark, Matt Winters & Sid Bream) are brutal.

So, I guess we should hold off planning the HoF induction weekend?
   7. UCCF Posted: December 22, 2011 at 10:36 PM (#4022225)
Nice comps for Masters, though given the finisher I'd list his top comp as Billy Jack Haynes rather than Adams.
   8. anybodybutbengie Posted: December 23, 2011 at 12:18 AM (#4022344)
The projection for Medlen seems to be missing.
   9. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: December 23, 2011 at 01:22 AM (#4022368)
He tweeted medlen's #s: 5-4 3.83, 82.1-80-8-26-67, 29 g, 9 gs
   10. Shock Posted: December 23, 2011 at 01:22 AM (#4022369)
Julio Lugo AND Jack Wilson? huh.
   11. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: December 23, 2011 at 01:43 AM (#4022377)
Those McCann comps are strangely depressing. McCann already has more WAR in his career than Nilsson or Edwards. Porter was pretty good I guess.

With the team not being aggressive financially, the Uggla signing is a real problem, though not one they can really do anything about at this point.

You want to get mad at the Braves for not spending money but when they do - coughDerekLowecough - you think maybe it's for the best.
   12. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: December 23, 2011 at 02:09 AM (#4022385)
The Braves are in an awkward spot. You don't want to overreact to the September collapse and organizationally implode, ala the Red Sox. The Braves won 89 games last year and 91 the year before. This is a good team. And it's a good team with a lot of young talent. There's no need for a dramatic overhaul (which is good, because Atlanta doesn't have the money for such a thing).

On the other hand, the offense was a legit problem last year, even before the September choke job. It's not overreacting to say that the offense needs a jump start. And the NL East keeps getting tougher. The Phillies are basically the NL's version of the Red Sox (without the nervous breakdown of this past off-season), the Marlins are throwing around money and the Nationals are gearing up to become a serious contender. And then there are the Mets.
   13. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: December 23, 2011 at 02:14 AM (#4022388)
Gary Gaetti? Chipper is ... better than Gary Gaetti.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: December 23, 2011 at 06:50 AM (#4022502)
Heyward career projection, ZiPS 2011: 275/395/477, 10700 PA, >1600 R, ~1500 RBI, 420 HR, 134 OPS+
Heyward career projection, ZiPS 2012: 253/373/435, 9500 PA, >1200 R, >1000 RBI, 304 HR, 119 OPS+

Ouch!

Those McCann comps are strangely depressing. McCann already has more WAR in his career than Nilsson or Edwards. Porter was pretty good I guess.

They're based on "recent" production. Nilsson still doesn't look like a great comp (about 6-6.5 oWAR 25-27 if you adjust for playing time) compared to McCann (just under 10) but Edwards had about 10 if you adjust for playing time. Meanwhile, from ages 25-27, Porter was a god -- 1767 PA, 128 OPS+, 14.7 oWAR.

But I've never quite been clear the extent to which the ZiPS comps are meant to be "this is who he's been like the last 3-4 years" or "this is who he will be like this year (at same age X)" or "this is who he will be like for the next X years." I assume the middle one but, like all comps, it's a lot more fun to treat it like the last one. :-)
   15. Walt Davis Posted: December 23, 2011 at 06:56 AM (#4022505)
Gary Gaetti? Chipper is ... better than Gary Gaetti.

You try finding comps for 40-year-old 3B. :-) At least Gaetti played at 40, Caminiti didn't even play at 39 (Cey did but not at 40).

Also Gaetti had that torrid run with the Cubs at 39 and finished the season with a 121 OPS+. Granted, on the surface at least, Nettles seems a better comp than Gaetti.
   16. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: December 23, 2011 at 06:21 PM (#4022680)
Uggla is overpaid, yes. But 110 OPS+ plus FR 2B defense = mediocre? Isn't that above-average?
   17. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: December 23, 2011 at 06:29 PM (#4022685)
The Phillies are basically the NL's version of the Red Sox (without the nervous breakdown of this past off-season), the Marlins are throwing around money and the Nationals are gearing up to become a serious contender. And then there are the Mets.


All of this is true, but as of right now, barring any further moves, neither the Marlins or the Nationals project to finish ahead of the Braves in 2012. They've improved, but they were *really friggin' bad* last year.
   18. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: December 23, 2011 at 06:53 PM (#4022704)
All of this is true, but as of right now, barring any further moves, neither the Marlins or the Nationals project to finish ahead of the Braves in 2012. They've improved, but they were *really friggin' bad* last year.


The Nats went 80-81. They now get 120 more innings of Strasburg, 6 or 7 more Zimmermann starts, and Gio Gonzalez. Werth, Zimmerman, and LaRoche are highly likely to provide significantly more value than in 2011. Sure, Morse could regress, and someone's gotta get hurt somewhere, but the Nationals would seem to project in the high-80s right now. They look like a toss-up with the Braves to me.
   19. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: December 23, 2011 at 07:19 PM (#4022718)
The Nats went 80-81. They now get 120 more innings of Strasburg, 6 or 7 more Zimmermann starts, and Gio Gonzalez. Werth, Zimmerman, and LaRoche are highly likely to provide significantly more value than in 2011. Sure, Morse could regress, and someone's gotta get hurt somewhere, but the Nationals would seem to project in the high-80s right now. They look like a toss-up with the Braves to me.


If we're going to apply the best case scenario to the Nats we have to apply the same rose-colored predictions to the Braves.

Prado, Uggla and Heyward all "provide significantly more value than in 2011." McCann doesn't collapse down the stretch again. Beachy/Minor/Teheran provide better innings than Lowe/Minor/Beachy.

All of a sudden, the Braves are 90+ wins and the Nats are still looking up from 3rd place.
   20. GregD Posted: December 23, 2011 at 07:21 PM (#4022719)
Was Chipper's 2011 the best season ever by a 39 year 3rd baseman? He seems to be hitting two comparability problems--great players frequently don't have good comps and very few third basemen play well into their late 30s so greater players like Schmidt and Brett and Matthews fall away, so a comp system for age 39 is either going to list good-hitting outfielders or an odd assortment of third basemen having late-career big years. Or is the question really, did Chipper age better than any third baseman ever? He's going to have be good at age 40 to keep up with Nettles, though. Darrell Evans hit well into his 40s but was basically third base by then.
   21. Walt Davis Posted: December 23, 2011 at 11:34 PM (#4022820)
It would be Chipper vs. Boggs. Boggs had 295 starts at 3B from 37-39 and put up (total) 8.9 WAR (1522 PA total). Chipper had 328 starts at 3B and put up 8.4 WAR (1489 PA). Gaetti was pretty close -- 7.2 in 369 starts and 1620 PA. Nettles is well back with 5.4 WAR in 338 starts and 1445 PA.

Nettles, as you note, did have a heck of an age 40 season (3.1 WAR, all offense) but was replacement level after that. Still that extra WAR only catches him up to Chipper. Gaetti was terrible after 39 and Boggs added only .4 WAR. So Chipper can take a clear lead this year.
   22. Sweatpants Posted: December 23, 2011 at 11:51 PM (#4022825)
What's Freeman's peak supposed to look like? How much is he supposed to improve upon last season's 118 OPS+?
   23. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: December 24, 2011 at 02:13 AM (#4022874)
The Nationals are not a high 80s win team.
   24. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 24, 2011 at 06:42 AM (#4022924)
The Nationals are not a high 80s win team.

They might be. We should wait till the ZiPS projections to find out! Harper could be already awesome for all we know.
   25. Mike Emeigh Posted: December 27, 2011 at 10:57 PM (#4024036)
What's Freeman's peak supposed to look like?


I like the Hrbek comp; Herbie's actually the player of whom I'm reminded most when I watch Freddie. Would have liked to see a career projection.

-- MWE
   26. Derb Posted: January 31, 2012 at 05:46 PM (#4050648)
Any chance for a Wilkin Ramirez projection? I think he just signed with Minnesota...
   27. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 31, 2012 at 06:41 PM (#4050705)
Morse could regress


Biggest understatement ever?
   28. Spahn Insane Posted: January 31, 2012 at 07:25 PM (#4050733)
That projection for Jurrjens seems pretty modest.

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