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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, December 30, 2011

2012 ZiPS Projections - Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles play in a beautiful, clean, park, with convenient light rail access and a short trip from Baltimore's Inner Harbor, Fells Point, and Canton. For crabs, take Eastern Boulevard to Mr. Bill's Terrace Inn or head to L.P. Steamers near Fort McHenry. If crabs aren't your thing, I'm very partial to Della Norte in Little Italy or, if you want to try Baltimore's non- barbecue barbecue, pit beef, Chaps Pit Beef or Pioneer Pit Beef.

Next Up: Milwaukee Brewers

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Nick Markakis     L    RF   28   .282 .350 .416 156 620  80 175  37   2  14  72  64  91  10   3  107
Luke Scott        L    LF   34   .254 .332 .468  97 331  46  84  18   1  17  48  38  79   1   1  114
Adam Jones        R    CF   26   .278 .322 .447 156 597  83 166  27   4  22  82  32 122  11   5  106
Matt Wieters      B    C    26   .268 .334 .429 148 527  67 141  26   1  19  73  53 107   1   0  105
Brian Roberts     B    2B   34   .265 .332 .411  80 321  48  85  22   2   7  36  33  55  14   4  100
J.J. Hardy        R    SS   29   .268 .316 .446 129 493  66 132  24   2  20  62  35  85   0   1  104
Mark Reynolds     R    3B   28   .218 .320 .461 151 532  85 116  22   1  35  88  75 216  11   5  108
Vladimir Guerrero R    DH   37   .284 .316 .429 137 536  61 152  25   1  17  70  20  55   2   3   99
Nolan Reimold     R    LF   28   .246 .325 .416 133 459  61 113  20   2  18  62  49 107   9   3   99
Chris Davis       L    3B   26   .250 .299 .440 146 536  61 134  29   2  23  72  36 177   4   1   97
L.J. Hoes         R    LF   22   .281 .337 .358 150 570  63 160  24   1   6  64  46 102  18  12   89
Joe Mahoney       L    1B   25   .254 .299 .380 124 468  51 119  23   3  10  60  27 130  12   3   83
Endy Chavez       L    CF   34   .270 .301 .361  74 233  24  63   8   2   3  17  11  24   9   2   78
Ryan Adams        R    2B   25   .260 .307 .381 131 515  58 134  28   2  10  48  31 136   4   4   85
Manny Machado     R    SS   19   .248 .303 .389 126 491  48 122  22   4  13  53  38 105  10   9   86
Brandon Snyder    R    1B   25   .249 .297 .379 138 515  56 128  27   2  12  68  32 125   2   2   82
Robert Andino     R    2B   28   .249 .301 .358 126 433  57 108  21   1   8  38  30  88  11   4   78
Xavier Avery      L    CF   22   .260 .310 .342 156 634  70 165  29   4   5  38  41 171  35  17   77
Steven Tolleson   R    3B   28   .242 .303 .347 124 484  61 117  23   2   8  42  40 102  11   4   76
Matt Antonelli    R    3B   27   .233 .318 .351  88 313  39  73  15   2   6  27  37  68   4   4   82
Josh Bell         B    3B   25   .232 .286 .383 138 504  61 117  21   2  17  58  38 149   3   3   79
Matt Angle        L    CF   26   .250 .314 .304 143 559  79 140  15   3   3  36  49 105  32   8   69
Ryan Flaherty     L    2B   25   .238 .289 .376 143 543  61 129  27   3  14  66  39 131   6   6   78
John Hester       R    C    28   .238 .287 .372  98 336  42  80  17   2   8  37  22  90   4   3   77
Caleb Joseph      R    C    26   .247 .293 .345 119 438  41 108  17   1   8  45  26  86   3   3   72
Rhyne Hughes      L    1B   28   .220 .273 .376 115 441  48  97  23   2  14  48  29 158   3   2   74
Tyler Henson      R    RF   24   .240 .288 .332 143 546  65 131  26   3   6  49  35 161  10   6   67
Brandon Waring    R    3B   26   .210 .270 .354 141 528  56 111  24   2  16  58  36 200   1   1   67
Pedro Florimon    B    SS   25   .234 .288 .319 138 492  50 115  21   3   5  49  34 146  16  11   65
Kyle Hudson       L    LF   25   .248 .311 .279 137 499  62 124  11   2   0  26  42 131  30  16   62
Taylor Teagarden  R    C    28   .197 .264 .345  74 249  26  49   8   1   9  23  21 109   0   0   63
Brendan Harris    R    SS   31   .226 .273 .323 129 464  44 105  20   2   7  39  26  90   1   1   61
Antoan Richardson B    LF   28   .210 .311 .247  96 295  45  62   6   1   1  18  36  87  14   4   54

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Nick Markakis                 AV/87                                           AV/67
Luke Scott                   AV/115                           FR/83
Adam Jones                                                           FR/120
Matt Wieters             VG
Brian Roberts                         AV/87
J.J. Hardy                                            VG/66
Mark Reynolds                FR/137          PO/176
Vladimir Guerrero                                                            PO/121
Nolan Reimold                FR/141                          AV/118          FR/123
Chris Davis                   FR/95          FR/150
LJ Hoes                              AV/203  FR/111          AV/126          AV/126
Joe Mahoney                  FR/130                          FR/116
Endy Chavez                                                   VG/91   AV/95   VG/97
Ryan Adams                           VG/165  VG/104
Manny Machado                                        AV/110
Brandon Snyder               AV/144          FR/111
Robert Andino                         AV/88   VG/92  AV/128  AV/118
Xavier Avery                                                 VG/147  AV/200
Steven Tolleson                      VG/127  AV/108  FR/157  FR/132  FR/106  FR/115
Matt Antonelli                       AV/101   AV/93  FR/112  AV/113
Josh Bell                                    AV/118
Matt Angle                                                   VG/113   VG/66  VG/117
Ryan Flaherty                AV/117   AV/90  AV/127  FR/117   AV/91          AV/103
John Hester              FR  FR/118
Caleb Joseph             AV  AV/118
Rhyne Hughes                 AV/116                                          AV/164
Tyler Henson                         PO/119  AV/125          AV/175  FR/123  AV/175
Brandon Waring               AV/116          FR/124
Pedro Florimon                       VG/118          VG/143
Kyle Hudson                                                   VG/98  AV/102   VG/98
Taylor Teagarden         AV
Brendan Harris               FR/115  PO/101   FR/92   PO/88  FR/117
Antoan Richardson                                             VG/89   AV/70   VG/93

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Tsuyoshi Wada     L      31     4.01    10    8   22   22   139.0  135   62   21   39  118   106
Jeremy Guthrie    R      33     4.30    11   11   28   28   178.0  179   85   23   44  100    99
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Zach Britton      L      24     4.85    10   12   30   29   156.0  172   84   16   61   96    88
Brad Bergesen     R      26     4.95     6    8   30   20   134.7  150   74   19   41   77    86
Tommy Hunter      R      25     4.96     7    9   29   22   136.0  156   75   20   35   76    86
Jake Arrieta      R      26     5.13     8   11   25   24   131.7  138   75   19   65   94    83
Alfredo Simon     R      31     5.15     4    5   27   10    78.7   87   45   11   29   54    83
Brian Matusz      L      25     5.35     7   11   26   26   136.3  153   81   21   53  100    80
Dana Eveland      L      28     5.44     7   11   27   24   134.0  160   81   14   59   74    78
Jo-Jo Reyes       L      27     5.81     4    8   22   19   100.7  123   65   17   38   59    73
Ryan Edell        L      28     5.95     5    9   27   21   124.0  167   82   19   29   69    72
Rick Vanden Hurk  R      27     6.03     6   11   26   24   125.3  148   84   25   47   75    71
Oliver Drake      R      25     6.13     6   12   26   24   138.0  185   94   18   51   68    70
Chris Tillman     R      24     6.20     6   12   27   27   135.0  163   93   25   59   82    69
Michael Ballard   L      28     6.29     5   10   26   21   123.0  164   86   22   35   65    68
Mitch Atkins      R      26     6.38     4    9   27   22   120.0  148   85   24   53   72    67
Robert Bundy      R      22     6.42     5   11   25   21   108.0  136   77   18   54   56    66
Timothy Bascom    R      27     6.52     5   11   27   21   118.7  161   86   19   45   56    65
Chris George      L      32     6.56     3    6   23   15    93.3  124   68   16   40   43    65
Steve Johnson     R      24     6.72     4   10   27   27   128.7  160   96   24   73   78    63
Ryohei Tanaka     R      29     7.18     4   10   27   18   100.3  150   80   20   29   40    59

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Darren O'Day      R      29     3.61     2    2   52    0    47.3   43   19    6   13   45   118
Jim Johnson       R      29     3.90     4    4   54    0    64.7   66   28    6   17   44   109
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Clay Rapada       L      31     4.40     2    2   53    0    43.0   44   21    4   18   34    97
Pedro Strop       R      27     4.43     4    5   58    0    63.0   64   31    5   33   55    96
Zach Phillips     L      25     4.59     3    3   50    1    66.7   69   34    5   36   46    93
Kevin Gregg       R      34     4.66     3    3   60    0    56.0   54   29    7   30   51    91
Daniel Klein      R      23     4.70     2    2   17    0    30.7   32   16    4   10   24    91
Troy Patton       L      26     4.73     3    4   51    0    64.7   71   34    7   22   39    90
Jason Berken      R      28     4.78     2    3   47    0    58.3   63   31    8   22   45    89
Jon Link          R      28     4.86     2    2   52    1    63.0   67   34    7   31   48    88
Willie Eyre       R      33     4.95     4    5   48    1    63.7   71   35    6   27   36    86
Jeremy Accardo    R      30     4.99     3    3   52    0    57.7   66   32    6   26   33    85
Miguel Socolovich R      25     5.28     3    5   40    2    59.7   64   35    7   36   44    81
Armando Gabino    R      28     5.45     4    6   39    5    77.7   88   47   10   38   46    78
Mark Hendrickson  L      38     5.61     2    4   35    0    61.0   73   38   10   20   33    76
Pedro Viola       L      29     5.72     2    4   46    3    50.3   58   32    7   26   35    74
Mark Worrell      R      29     5.87     2    4   47    0    46.0   53   30    7   22   28    73
Kyler Newby       R      27     6.02     3    7   36   11    86.7  103   58   16   39   59    71
Will Startup      L      27     6.03     1    2   23    0    37.3   44   25    7   17   20    71
Nick Bierbrodt    L      34     6.14     1    1   30    0    36.7   44   25    5   22   18    69

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Vladimir Guerrero    .311  .368  .531  2506  9566  1480  2978   540    49   489  1669   784  1120   186   133
Nick Markakis        .282  .350  .423  2075  8146  1062  2301   490    28   199   993   836  1143   123   107
Adam Jones           .271  .316  .433  2175  8173  1099  2218   363    54   282  1071   434  1575   129   100
J.J. Hardy           .262  .311  .423  1870  7057   900  1850   326    25   254   861   509  1041     6    95
Matt Wieters         .260  .324  .408  1985  7099   831  1844   336    13   229   921   680  1309    10    97
Brian Roberts        .276  .344  .409  1588  6334   975  1746   431    41   111   630   677   957   326   100
Mark Reynolds        .228  .322  .451  2019  7143  1092  1626   324    21   409  1120   932  2502   126   104
Luke Scott           .257  .335  .471  1128  3718   492   957   224    21   176   534   424   820    16   113
Nolan Reimold        .247  .324  .410  1046  3565   452   880   155    16   131   467   375   734    56    97

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Jeremy Guthrie        114  134    0    4.42  351  329     2128 2165 1044  292  592 1233     98

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Nick Markakis     RF      9%  25%  22%  23%  21%         Mark Grace   Warren Cromartie       Bruce Bochte
Luke Scott        LF     17%  29%  21%  19%  14%      Paul Sorrento       Johnny Grubb    Henry Rodriguez
Adam Jones        CF     23%  25%  29%  16%   5%       Glenn Braggs      Darryl Motley Franklin Gutierrez
Matt Wieters      C      27%  37%  20%  13%   3%       Geovany Soto      Ronny Paulino         John Ramos
Brian Roberts     2B     29%  19%  20%  20%  12%     Alan Bannister        Bill Pecota    Tony Graffanino
J.J. Hardy        SS     31%  29%  26%  11%   3%      Tracy Woodson      Mike Cervenak        Jose Castro
Mark Reynolds     3B     19%  28%  23%  17%  13%         Troy Glaus        Dean Palmer      Johnny Vergez
Vladimir Guerrero DH      1%   8%  13%  33%  45%     Dante Bichette        Tommy Davis       Steve Garvey
Nolan Reimold     LF      3%  13%  18%  28%  38%        Ernie Young         Adam Hyzdu      Derrick White
Chris Davis       3B      6%  16%  23%  27%  28%         Roy Howell       Brook Jacoby        Jim Presley
L.J. Hoes         LF      0%   3%   7%  16%  73%       Delmon Young        Dale Holman        Alex Romero
Joe Mahoney       1B      0%   2%   3%  15%  79%          Rod Allen      LaVel Freeman       Junior Felix
Endy Chavez       CF      3%   4%  12%  27%  54%     Kerry Robinson        Tike Redman        Joe Orsulak
Ryan Adams        2B      4%   5%  10%  23%  58%       Hubie Brooks         Mark Lewis       Brook Jacoby
Manny Machado     SS     10%  11%  18%  21%  40%     Jhonny Peralta     Nelson Johnson        Jose Castro
Brandon Snyder    1B      0%   0%   1%   9%  89%       Bryan LahairGuillermo Velasquez         Ron Coomer
Robert Andino     2B      3%   3%   7%  20%  67%      Tommy Shields     Steve Springer    Kevin Polcovich
Xavier Avery      CF      2%   3%   9%  21%  66%           Mel Hall       Trench Davis         Mike Neill
Steven Tolleson   3B      0%   2%   4%  12%  82%     Andy Beinbrink          Bert Pena    Josh Labandeira
Matt Antonelli    3B      1%   2%   5%  15%  78%      Mike Moriarty      Tony Schrager       Danny Solano
Josh Bell         3B      0%   2%   5%  15%  78%       Ty Wigginton        Les Pearsey      Casey Webster
Matt Angle        CF      0%   2%   7%  22%  69%       Bradley Coon    Carl Loadenthal     Curtis Goodwin
Ryan Flaherty     2B      1%   3%   6%  15%  75%      Oscar Salazar       Brian Turner          David Nix
John Hester       C       2%   5%  10%  27%  56%        Jack Fimple       Gerald Laird      Eli Whiteside
Caleb Joseph      C       1%   4%   7%  19%  70%   Maxim St. Pierre      Bryan Kennedy       Gary Bennett
Rhyne Hughes      1B      0%   0%   1%   5%  95%     Oreste Marrero        Greg Sparks         Randy Ruiz
Tyler Henson      RF      0%   0%   0%   1%  99%         Wil Culmer     George Hinshaw      Vernon Thomas
Brandon Waring    3B      0%   1%   2%   5%  92%    Jonathan Greene       Lee Mitchell         Ryan Minor
Pedro Florimon    SS      1%   1%   3%  10%  85%         Ross Jones   Curtis Wilkerson     Bobby DeJardin
Kyle Hudson       LF      0%   0%   0%   1%  99%   LaSchelle Tarver     Leo Sutherland       Bruce Fields
Taylor Teagarden  C       1%   2%   4%  12%  82%       Roy Anderson     Henry Mercedes    Paul Chiaffredo
Brendan Harris    SS      0%   1%   3%   9%  87%     Chris Petersen        Juan Castro     Jorge Velandia
Antoan Richardson LF      0%   0%   0%   0% 100%        Lou Frazier      Troy Gingrich        Ramon Sambo

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Darren O'Day      RP      48%    38%    14% Justin Duchscherer      Ugueth Urbina     Trevor Hoffman
Jim Johnson       RP      25%    55%    20%        Cory Bailey   Mike Christopher        Julio Mateo
Tsuyoshi Wada     SP      41%    48%    11%          Bud Black       Kenny Rogers    John Candelaria
Jeremy Guthrie    SP      26%    56%    18%    Doyle Alexander         Bob Forsch    Joaquin Andujar
Clay Rapada       RP      17%    41%    42%     Eric Gunderson         Mike Munoz      Lance Painter
Pedro Strop       RP       9%    48%    43%         Jim Stoops       Roy Corcoran           Sal Urso
Zach Phillips     RP       8%    44%    48%     Pete Cappadona     Carlos Vasquez    Marcelino Lopez
Kevin Gregg       RP       8%    34%    58%       Rich DeLucia       Tim Stoddard         Ryne Duren
Daniel Klein      RP      15%    37%    48%        Terry Clark       Rick Behenna         Heath Bost
Troy Patton       RP       7%    38%    56%     Erasmo Ramirez         Ryan Meaux       Steve Sharts
Jason Berken      RP       6%    37%    56%   Derek Hasselhoff  Hipolito Pichardo       Joe Beckwith
Zach Britton      SP       5%    50%    45%         Ed Vosberg      Mark Thurmond     Eric Gunderson
Jon Link          RP       3%    33%    65%       Roy Corcoran      Steve Wapnick       Craig Pippin
Brad Bergesen     SP       4%    41%    55%       Brian Holton         Cory Lidle        Kris Wilson
Willie Eyre       RP       7%    27%    65%       Ricky Barlow         Jim Coates        Bob Scanlan
Tommy Hunter      SP       5%    45%    50%         Jin Ho Cho        Dave Eiland       Brian Denman
Jeremy Accardo    RP       3%    24%    73%      Mike Bumstead       Jake Robbins       Weston Weber
Jake Arrieta      SP       3%    31%    66%      Charlie Puleo       Tyler Walker     John Patterson
Alfredo Simon     SP       1%    24%    75%        Rafael Pina       Dickie Noles       Scott Taylor
Miguel Socolovich RP       1%    19%    79%     Marc Pisciotta    Jason Gilfillan     Anthony Chavez
Brian Matusz      SP       1%    23%    76%       Mark Guthrie       Rafael Novoa     Brian McNichol
Dana Eveland      SP       1%    19%    80%       Heath Murray       Bill Krueger         Jeff Mutis
Armando Gabino    RP       0%    11%    89%       Tom McCarthy      Corey Brittan        Tim Lavigne
Mark Hendrickson  RP       4%    12%    83%        Clyde Shoun     Boom-Boom Beck        Matt Herges
Pedro Viola       RP       1%    12%    87%         Tim Adkins      Jason Jimenez       Ben Julianel
Jo-Jo Reyes       SP       0%    10%    90%     Justin Hampson      Derek Manning     Michael Bacsik
Mark Worrell      RP       1%     8%    91%        Chuck Smith     Keith Shepherd        Steve Mintz
Ryan Edell        SP       0%     8%    92%        Scott Downs       Heath Totten    John Rheinecker
Kyler Newby       RP       0%     3%    97%           Dave Gil            Bo Hall   Jonathan Johnson
Will Startup      RP       2%     8%    90%        Dave Tomlin       Jason Sekany     John Hrusovsky
Rick Vanden Hurk  SP       0%     5%    95%       Shane Bowers    Jeremy Cummings       Danny Tamayo
Oliver Drake      SP       0%     3%    97%         Shane Loux        Peter Bauer  Michael Macdonald
Nick Bierbrodt    RP       2%    12%    86%       Mike Venafro   Marshall Bridges       Pedro Borbon
Chris Tillman     SP       0%     2%    98%        Phil Grundy      Brian Schmack         Jim Brower
Michael Ballard   SP       0%     3%    97%        Scott Downs        Buddy Groom     Willie Collazo
Mitch Atkins      SP       0%     1%    99%        Chris Mears      Mark Nussbeck      Edward Valdez
Robert Bundy      SP       0%     2%    98%       Steve Stemle    Travis Anderson        Nick Masset
Timothy Bascom    SP       0%     1%    99%        Pat Ahearne        Felipe Lira        Jim Magrane
Chris George      SP       0%     2%    98%        Rick Krivda       Brian Barnes     Chris Michalak
Steve Johnson     SP       0%     0%   100%         Matt Drews     Keith Bucktrot        Gary Knotts
Ryohei Tanaka     SP       0%     1%    99%        Kris Wilson      Tim McClaskey           Joe Mays

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Nick Markakis           22%      16%       2%      21%       0%       2%       3%       4%
Luke Scott               5%       8%      24%       0%       0%       2%       8%       0%
Adam Jones              16%       2%       9%       1%       5%      14%       2%       1%
Matt Wieters             8%       6%       5%       0%       0%       5%       2%       0%
Brian Roberts           10%       8%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       2%
J.J. Hardy               9%       2%      10%       0%       1%       7%       2%       0%
Mark Reynolds            0%       2%      21%       0%       0%      73%       6%       3%
Vladimir Guerrero       23%       1%       5%       0%       0%       4%       1%       0%
Nolan Reimold            1%       3%       2%       0%       0%       2%       1%       2%
Chris Davis              2%       0%       8%       2%       0%      16%       1%       0%
L.J. Hoes               20%       6%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       8%
Joe Mahoney              2%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Endy Chavez             17%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Ryan Adams               4%       0%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Manny Machado            3%       1%       5%       0%       3%       4%       2%       2%
Brandon Snyder           1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Robert Andino            2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       2%
Xavier Avery             4%       1%       0%       4%       4%       0%       0%      75%
Steven Tolleson          0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Matt Antonelli           1%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Bell                0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%
Matt Angle               1%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%      58%
Ryan Flaherty            0%       0%       0%       1%       1%       1%       0%       1%
John Hester              1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Caleb Joseph             1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Rhyne Hughes             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Tyler Henson             0%       0%       0%       1%       2%       0%       0%       1%
Brandon Waring           0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%
Pedro Florimon           0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       4%
Kyle Hudson              1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%      50%
Taylor Teagarden         0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brendan Harris           0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Antoan Richardson        0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Darren O'Day              38%        80%        64%        41%        44%
Jim Johnson               19%        68%         3%        25%        73%
Tsuyoshi Wada             11%        69%        31%        14%        18%
Jeremy Guthrie             5%        51%         0%        37%        37%
Clay Rapada               12%        49%        22%         3%        76%
Pedro Strop                9%        50%        41%         0%        84%
Zach Phillips              6%        39%         3%         0%        80%
Kevin Gregg                5%        35%        54%         0%        44%
Daniel Klein              15%        42%        19%        23%        42%
Troy Patton                5%        31%         0%         7%        57%
Jason Berken               4%        29%        11%         3%        37%
Zach Britton               0%        19%         1%         0%        66%
Jon Link                   3%        29%        11%         0%        61%
Brad Bergesen              0%        16%         0%         7%        27%
Willie Eyre                5%        29%         3%         2%        66%
Tommy Hunter               0%        17%         0%        26%        23%
Jeremy Accardo             3%        21%         1%         1%        65%
Jake Arrieta               0%        10%         3%         0%        28%
Alfredo Simon              1%        16%         2%         1%        31%
Miguel Socolovich          1%        16%         7%         0%        65%
Brian Matusz               0%         6%         3%         0%        15%
Dana Eveland               0%         3%         0%         0%        62%
Armando Gabino             0%         6%         0%         0%        45%
Mark Hendrickson           3%        14%         1%        15%        28%
Pedro Viola                0%         9%         4%         0%        44%
Jo-Jo Reyes                0%         1%         0%         0%        12%
Mark Worrell               0%         6%         1%         1%        29%
Ryan Edell                 0%         1%         0%        50%        22%
Kyler Newby                0%         1%         1%         0%        10%
Will Startup               1%         6%         1%         2%        22%
Rick Vanden Hurk           0%         1%         0%         0%         3%
Oliver Drake               0%         0%         0%         1%        30%
Nick Bierbrodt             2%        10%         1%         0%        46%
Chris Tillman              0%         0%         0%         0%         4%
Michael Ballard            0%         0%         0%        13%         7%
Mitch Atkins               0%         0%         0%         0%         2%
Robert Bundy               0%         0%         0%         0%        11%
Timothy Bascom             0%         0%         0%         0%        12%
Chris George               0%         0%         0%         0%        12%
Steve Johnson              0%         0%         0%         0%         4%
Ryohei Tanaka              0%         0%         0%        14%         6%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
Rockies
Braves
Astros
Cardinals
Dodgers
Twins
Giants
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 30, 2011 at 07:15 PM | 48 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: December 30, 2011 at 09:02 PM (#4025926)
HOF?

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+
Vladimir Guerrero .311 .368 .531 2506 9566 1480 2978 540 49 489 1669 784 1120 186 133
   2. Spivey Posted: December 30, 2011 at 09:09 PM (#4025928)
Luke Scott got non-tendered, right?

Matusz and Tillman certainly didn't pan out as planned, though I guess Matusz gets one more year.
   3. dave h Posted: December 30, 2011 at 09:10 PM (#4025929)
Baltimore is a wonderful place to catch a game, if you don't mind the guilt of adding to the visiting team's cheering section.
   4. Banta Posted: December 30, 2011 at 09:12 PM (#4025932)
I really don't see Vlad getting the 1500 more ABs to drag his OPS+ down to 133 from the 140 its at now. I guess you never know though.

Also, it's interesting, but as much #### that gets talked about Palmeiro not having a peak, I don't see where Vlad's blows his away... if Vlad ends up with the career line that Zips projects, it would be pretty clearly an inferior career to Palmeiro.
   5. TerpNats Posted: December 30, 2011 at 09:17 PM (#4025935)
Baltimore is a wonderful place to catch a game, if you don't mind the guilt of adding to the visiting team's cheering section.
As a Nationals fan, based upon what Cuban Pete did to Washington all those years (and still does, in some ways, through MASN), I feel no guilt at all.
   6. Banta Posted: December 30, 2011 at 09:25 PM (#4025939)
To continue with what I was saying:

Top Ten Seasons WAR
Palmeiro VS. Guerrero:

7.4........7.4
6.2........7.1
6.0........6.5
5.5........5.5
4.9........5.4
4.2........5.3
4.2........4.8
4.1........3.9
3.8........3.8
3.6........3.5

I'm not trying to bring Vlad down or anything, it's just very interesting to me as my gut told me that Vlad was a much more dynamic player than Palmeiro at his peak... and it's a lot closer that I would have guessed.
   7. Jose Molina wants a nickname like "A-Rod" Posted: December 30, 2011 at 09:26 PM (#4025940)
Given his second half, I'll take the over on Wieters.
   8. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 30, 2011 at 09:30 PM (#4025942)
Seems like the upside of that projected offense, on the whole, is league average.

That doesn't bode well.
   9. karlmagnus Posted: December 30, 2011 at 09:37 PM (#4025946)
This team could use Manny Ramirez. Hopefully Duquette has his contact details!
   10. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: December 30, 2011 at 09:49 PM (#4025955)
So basically every player on the team gets worse? I'm not exactly optimistic about the Orioles in 2012, but this projection seems odd to me.
   11. andrewberg Posted: December 30, 2011 at 10:09 PM (#4025963)
Who do you prefer over the next 5 years without contract concerns: Wieters or Miguel Montero?
   12. CraigK Posted: December 30, 2011 at 10:23 PM (#4025970)
After doing this for so long, I see ZiPS has picked up Dan's rampant pessimism regarding this franchise. :)
   13. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 30, 2011 at 10:27 PM (#4025974)
So basically every player on the team gets worse? I'm not exactly optimistic about the Orioles in 2012, but this projection seems odd to me.


Wieters gets a 105, career is 100, had a 113 last year, he'll be 26, I would've guessed a 110 myself...

Markakis at 107? He was at 109 last year, 120 the year before, 117 for his career, I'd guessed 112...

Hardy at 104, coming off a 117, he's at 99 for his career, 2 straight sub 100 years leading into 2011, 104 looks reasonable

Jones at 106, 114 last year, 108 the year before, he'll be 26, I would guess, oh, 112 or so.

Reynolds at 108, 110 for career, 4 year sequence of 95, 127, 97, 119... yeah splitting the difference between his last two year is the best way to go- and that gets you to 108...

The thing is no one's projection looks "high" to me, either right on or low... I would LOVE to see Wieters put up a 140 just to see BPro do another 180 turn on him.
   14. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 30, 2011 at 10:38 PM (#4025979)
Who do you prefer over the next 5 years without contract concerns: Wieters or Miguel Montero?

hmmm I'm pretty sure that Montero is going to outhit Matt...
I'm also pretty sure Wieters is going to be catching most of not all the next 5 years and Montero... will not.

I'm guessing that Wieters is going to put up 15-20 WAR over the next 5, as a 1b/dh type he's going to need to OPS+ 130 or so to get up there...



interesting question
   15. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: December 30, 2011 at 10:53 PM (#4025989)
Top 10 WAR finishes:

Guerrero: 2nd, 5th, 6th, 7th, 9th
Palmeiro: 3rd, 6th, 9th, 9th
Will Clark: 1st, 3rd, 8th
Dave Parker: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th

Top 10 oWAR (to account for possible unreliability of defensive stats):

Guerrero: 3rd, 7th
Palmeiro: 7th, 8th, 10th
Will Clark: 1st, 3rd, 7th, 10th, 10th
Dave Parker: 1st, 3rd
   16. shoewizard Posted: December 31, 2011 at 01:04 AM (#4026032)
FWIW, fWAR
Vladdy Finger guy
7.6    7.2
7.0    6.6
6.5    6.4
6.3    5.9
5.5    5.5
5.2    4.9
4.9    4.8
3.8    4.6
3.4    4.3
3.2    4.0
53.4   54.2 
   17. shoewizard Posted: December 31, 2011 at 01:18 AM (#4026039)
From 1998-2007, very clearly Vlads consecutive 10 year Peak,

Top 15 fWAR

A-Rod     79.7
Bonds     76.0
A Jones   65.0
C Jones   58.7
Albert    57.2
Rolen     56.0
Helton    54.9
Abreu     54.5
Vlad      53.4
Giles     52.2
Jeter     52.0
Edmonds   49.0
Kent      46.2
Manny     46.1
Beltran   45.6 


Top 15 bWAR 98-07
Rk              Player WAR/pos
1          Barry Bonds    77.7
2       Alex Rodriguez    76.2
3        Albert Pujols    57.8
4         Andruw Jones    56.8
5        Chipper Jones    55.4
6    Vladimir Guerrero    53.2
7          Derek Jeter    52.8
8          Todd Helton    52.8
9          Bobby Abreu    50.8
10         Jim Edmonds    50.5
11         Scott Rolen    49.6
12        Jason Giambi    48.2
13       Manny Ramirez    45.7
14           Jeff Kent    43.6
15      Carlos Beltran    43.5 


Note: Giles at 39.7 bWAR, ranks 22nd.
   18. Walt Davis Posted: December 31, 2011 at 02:43 AM (#4026060)
I'm also pretty sure Wieters is going to be catching most of not all the next 5 years and Montero... will not.

I think one of you has the wrong Montero. The question asked about Miguel, you seem to be talking about Jesus.

The D-Backs C will be 28, has averaged a 114 OPS+ over the last 3 years and 7.2 WAR. Chone has rated him as poor, average and good on defense the last three years :-) so let's call it average. As far as I know there's no talk of moving him to 1B.

Wieters will be 26, may have had his breakout as a hitter, appears good defensively and has 7.5 WAR over the last 3 years.

Probably advantage Wieters but it's close. As to Jesus Montero, I leave that to the crystal ball crowd. :-)
   19. Walt Davis Posted: December 31, 2011 at 02:46 AM (#4026063)
convenient light rail access

careful now, they might revoke your libertarian membership card. :-)
   20. shoewizard Posted: December 31, 2011 at 03:12 AM (#4026071)
Walt
Miguel Montero had a sudden defensive awakening, at least with regards to his throwing game, during the middle of 2011. He all of a sudden stopped making throwing errors, and started throwing out 40% of would be base stealers. FWIW, the newer pitch framing metrics rank him quite highly too. He has made a lot of strides the last year or two. I think he is at least average, and likely good now.
   21. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: December 31, 2011 at 03:44 AM (#4026091)
Seems like the upside of that projected offense, on the whole, is league average.

That doesn't bode well.


You look at those projections, and are worried about the offense?!? They have NO pitching, and about 2 starters, who are above average defensively.

They might have a shot at 900 runs allowed. In this run environment. Unbelievable.
   22. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: December 31, 2011 at 03:47 AM (#4026092)
nvm
   23. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 31, 2011 at 05:44 AM (#4026130)
I think Vlad is the very definition of "feels" like a Hall of Famer for his generation. My guess is that he'll end up as a good, lower-echelon-style selection, but damned if it doesn't seem like he should just slide in like a stick of butter over a hot skillet.
   24. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 31, 2011 at 06:03 AM (#4026132)
careful now, they might revoke your libertarian membership card. :-)


We're supposed to have cards?

Fancy Pants, I actually never looked at the pitching projections. Now that I have... yes, it's not good.
   25. escabeche Posted: December 31, 2011 at 06:55 AM (#4026140)
But there's a lot more variation there. Tillman and especially Matusz haven't proven they're as bad as this projection.
   26. philly Posted: December 31, 2011 at 02:31 PM (#4026170)
Would be nice to see a projection and comps for Jonathan Schoop who is the 3rd best propect in the system and a guy who played alongside Machado in both full A levels so should have enough track record to use.
   27. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: December 31, 2011 at 03:13 PM (#4026186)
Baltimore is a wonderful place to catch a game, if you don't mind the guilt of adding to the visiting team's cheering section.

My son was going to take me for my birthday in August but that was the month of 20" of rain and the game was rained out. I saw the penultimate game in Memorial Stadium but haven't been to the "new" stadium yet. Go figure.
   28. Something Other Posted: December 31, 2011 at 03:42 PM (#4026198)
HOF?

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+
Vladimir Guerrero .311 .368 .531 2506 9566 1480 2978 540 49 489 1669 784 1120 186 133


As Banta wrote, it's not easy to imagine someone paying Vlad to be pretty bad for three more years. Though if he's willing to play for a couple mil a year and never gets much below league average during any season, I suppose GMs have done stranger things than pay poor DHs with illustrious careers to hang around forever.

BBRef doesn't have him listed as under contract for 2012--has he signed yet?
   29. birdlives is one crazy ninja Posted: December 31, 2011 at 04:46 PM (#4026227)
Part of Markakis' career line hyperlinks as a telephone number (at least in Chrome). If you call, who picks up?
   30. dave h Posted: December 31, 2011 at 05:02 PM (#4026235)
My son was going to take me for my birthday in August but that was the month of 20" of rain and the game was rained out. I saw the penultimate game in Memorial Stadium but haven't been to the "new" stadium yet. Go figure.


Tickets are dirt cheap, you can bring in food and non-alcoholic drinks, of which there is plenty just outside the stadium, and I haven't found a bad seat yet. Pick a non-Red Sox/Yankees game, preferably at night in the middle of summer, get seats in the Eutaw St Bleachers or "splurge" for box seats, grab some burgers, dogs, and drinks at a vendor across the street, and root for the O's. They'll probably lose, but it'll be a good time and cheaper than dinner and a movie.

It's really too bad they don't have a couple stars, especially out of the crop that might have been (Jones, Wieters). Of course it would be more fun to watch, and I doubt ticket prices would go up much since Baltimore is first and foremost a football town.
   31. DKDC Posted: December 31, 2011 at 05:09 PM (#4026237)
This looks a lot like the 2011 Orioles. Passable offense but among the worst everywhere else.

This team probably has less upside, though.
   32. TerpNats Posted: December 31, 2011 at 05:29 PM (#4026244)
The "wow" that Camden Yards was in 1992 doesn't quite resonate 20 years later for a range of reasons -- its successors have captured much of the same vibe and in many cases improved on it (e.g., at Camden, many concession stands are out of line of game action), and some of downtown Baltimore's development, notably a new hotel, has lessened its aesthetics. Not to say that Camden isn't a good ballpark, and it was an important trendsetter. But it's been eclipsed by several of its successors, notably in San Francisco and Pittsburgh.
   33. shoewizard Posted: December 31, 2011 at 11:58 PM (#4026421)
Hard to believe it's been 20 years already.
   34. OlePerfesser Posted: January 02, 2012 at 03:14 AM (#4026935)
Sure, there are now several other parks that are as neat as OP@CY, once you're inside.

I'm trying to think of other parks with as much urban fun to be had a short walk from the gates, though, and the only one I can come up with is Wrigley. But I haven't been to all of them. Other nominees?

Oh, and Dan erred: it's Della Notte. Chiapparelli's is also very good.
   35. The District Attorney Posted: January 02, 2012 at 03:40 AM (#4026954)
Part of Markakis' career line hyperlinks as a telephone number (at least in Chrome). If you call, who picks up?
Brad Wilkerson.
   36. NattyBoh Posted: January 03, 2012 at 01:07 PM (#4027683)
Will have to try out the restaurants. Wasn't able to make it to Obrycki's last year.

It appears that we won't have the worst pitching in the league.
   37. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: January 03, 2012 at 01:25 PM (#4027702)
Would someone please give Markakis his steroids back?
   38. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 03, 2012 at 01:55 PM (#4027731)
Part of Markakis' career line hyperlinks as a telephone number (at least in Chrome). If you call, who picks up?

Brad Wilkerson.


With Ben Grieve, Eric Hinske, Hank Blalock, and Eric Chavez on hold.
   39. toratoratora Posted: January 03, 2012 at 02:33 PM (#4027782)
If you feel like dropping some bucks, go to Cindy Wolfe's Charleston,low country creole done Baltimore style.
And yes, Obrycki's is closed. I think they are moving.


As for Vlad-I see him as a for sure HoF. Less because of the stats than the story. He's a fun guy to watch,never ever had a hint of steroids, has a good reputation within the game, when he was young could actually throw, field and run a bit,went 30/30 twice, had a nice peak with the Angels,a fairly large market team, has a great nickname and was one of the legendary bad ball hitters ever. I mean, who among us hasn't enjoyed watching Vlad swinging at anything near the plate (and often getting hard hits) and golfing homers over the last 15 years?
Right now Vlad is rated #42 all time, between Johnny Bench and Frank Thomas, at BBR ELO, which I know isn't a good statistical tool, but I think it gives a good perception of how the public (Rather inaccurately) views him.
He's in like Flynn.
I think the only thing that could hold him up would be the coming logjam.
   40.   Posted: January 03, 2012 at 02:43 PM (#4027802)
Holy man...not cool when your roster projects that badly and nobody is under 25...
   41. NattyBoh Posted: January 03, 2012 at 04:20 PM (#4027945)
0. Dan Szymborski ... Wasn't able to make it to Obrycki's last year.

It's closed now, no?

Honestly, I found Obrycki's overrated. Probably because it became rather tourist-y and I'm a fierce partisan of Old Bay.


Closed forever on November 5. The spice was unique, no Old Bay. I liked the original restaurant better than the new place.

Think I've been to LP Steamers. Used to go to Baltimore at least once a year to catch a game and eat steamed crabs until I had those darn kids. And all the restaurants I went to closed.
   42. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 03, 2012 at 05:30 PM (#4028036)
Dan, what happened to the bookmarks? The site update seems to have eaten them.

Also... the narrow edit box seems to be a step backwards.
   43. zenbitz Posted: January 04, 2012 at 07:32 PM (#4029048)
How the Giants failed to get JJ Hardy from Minnesota or Baltimore I'll never know.
   44. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: January 15, 2012 at 11:53 AM (#4037326)
The projected K totals for some of the hitters is mindblowing.
Perfect team for Reynolds, who has a shot at breaking Reggie's record if he can keep his job.
Of course it could be Thome's record by than.

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