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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

2012 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox

Despite the September collapse, the Red Sox managed to still win 90 games, but the collapse is what will be remembered about this team in the year 2050.  Hopefully, as we listen to baseball

games in our rocket cars or watch with our virtual reality Ballparksperience contraptions.  Still, what it came down didn’t really have much to do with beer drinking in the clubhouse

(drinking beer and playing video games seemed to work just fine for the 5/6th of a season during which the team was one of the best in the league.  Or choking, either - plenty of players

played subpar, but the offense was still good.  What it really came down to was the Red Sox, like pretty much every team, couldn’t cope with having 4/5th of their preseason starting

rotation injured at one point or another in September, plus the pitcher acquisition (though you shouldn’t ever expect Erik Bedard to be healthy).  Even worse, the guy that stayed healthy at

the end of the year, was John Lackey.

Now, it’s hard to have an adequate 10th starter stashed away unless you’re the parent club of Gwinnett, so it’s hard to fault the team for not preparing too heavily at the start of the

season.  Where management did go wrong was that once they started pitching Kyle Weiland and Andrew Miller a lot, not doing enough to bring in someone who could eat innings, even if they

would be ineligible for the postseason.  It’s excusable when you have a huge lead, but when everything’s falling apart at the very end, the leverage is so high that you really gotta overpay

and bring in someone like Bruce Chen.

The Epstein/Francona era is over, prematurely in my opinion, but the Red Sox organization will probably stay the course and continue to make the types of moves that they normally do. 

There’s some extra money, even if they can bring Ortiz back, but not a lot of good pitchers available, so the Sox will have to be aggressive and creative to patch up the rotation this

winter.

Next Up: Chicago Cubs

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Adrian Gonzalez   L    1B   30   .297 .384 .526 153 582  88 173  36   2  31 104  79 114   1   0  138
Kevin Youkilis    R    3B   33   .268 .374 .477 116 421  63 113  28   3  18  67  62  94   4   1  124
Dustin Pedroia    R    2B   28   .294 .368 .461 139 562  84 165  36   2  18  70  67  64  20   6  118
David Ortiz       L    DH   36   .266 .357 .498 127 462  61 123  30   1  25  78  65 105   1   1  123
Jacoby Ellsbury   L    CF   28   .290 .345 .457 128 527  76 153  30   5  16  62  40  75  40  11  110
Carl Crawford     L    LF   30   .282 .325 .448 144 563  80 159  31  10  14  70  34  94  32   9  102
Marco Scutaro     R    SS   36   .277 .339 .390 123 477  65 132  28   1   8  51  45  53   6   3   93
J.D. Drew         L    RF   36   .247 .340 .412  99 328  41  81  14   2  12  39  45  79   1   2   98
Ryan Kalish       L    CF   24   .257 .318 .402 101 378  51  97  22   3   9  59  34  89  17   5   89
Jason Varitek     B    C    40   .226 .296 .452  53 168  21  38   9   1   9  24  15  54   0   0   94
Mike Aviles       R    SS   31   .273 .301 .417 115 422  52 115  23   4  10  49  17  62  12   6   88
Jed Lowrie        B    SS   28   .252 .316 .406  86 286  34  72  19   2   7  38  28  57   1   1   89
Ryan Lavarnway    R    C    24   .243 .316 .405 141 536  60 130  30   0  19  78  53 152   1   1   89
Darnell McDonald  R    RF   33   .250 .305 .411 104 292  35  73  17   3   8  36  22  69   6   3   87
Conor Jackson     R    1B   30   .254 .329 .359  87 287  34  73  16   1   4  43  30  41   5   1   82
Lars Anderson     L    1B   24   .240 .316 .377 155 563  55 135  37   2  12  66  62 151   4   1   83
Josh Reddick      L    RF   25   .247 .295 .413 148 518  61 128  31   5  15  55  37 110   5   5   85
Nate Spears       L    2B   27   .242 .316 .371 128 442  58 107  25   4   8  50  44  91   9   3   81
Hector Luna       R    3B   32   .251 .304 .382 117 419  46 105  21   2  10  49  30  79   5   2   80
Will Middlebrooks R    3B   23   .247 .283 .405 140 538  58 133  30   2  17  76  26 152   8   2   80
Jarrod SaltalamaccB    C    27   .228 .294 .410  95 329  40  75  20   2  12  44  28 109   1   1   84
Daniel Nava       B    LF   29   .245 .324 .360 113 417  45 102  26   2   6  44  42  92   4   3   81
Drew Sutton       B    2B   29   .240 .320 .366 102 325  38  78  22   2   5  37  35  85   4   3   81
Che-Hsuan Lin     R    CF   23   .252 .327 .309 139 560  79 141  21   4   1  37  54  78  26  11   70
Brett Carroll     R    CF   29   .225 .287 .362 115 365  49  82  19   2   9  40  25  93   5   2   70
Luis Exposito     R    C    25   .241 .288 .362 117 456  41 110  29   1   8  53  28 109   1   3   71
Oscar Tejeda      R    2B   22   .245 .280 .344 154 604  59 148  31   4   7  53  29 137  15   8   64
Jose Iglesias     R    SS   22   .251 .289 .311 126 438  45 110  17   3   1  33  20  78  12   6   59
Brent Dlugach     R    SS   29   .223 .264 .330 101 373  38  83  18   2   6  33  20 133   6   2   56
Joey Gathright    L    CF   31   .241 .289 .276  56 174  25  42   4   1   0  17  11  29   9   4   51

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Adrian Gonzalez               VG/75                                          FR/101
Kevin Youkilis                VG/56           FR/69          FR/111
Dustin Pedroia                        VG/64
David Ortiz                  PO/105
Jacoby Ellsbury                                               VG/98   AV/44
Carl Crawford                                                 VG/68
Marco Scutaro                        FR/112           AV/85
J.D. Drew                                                                     VG/49
Ryan Kalish                                                  VG/108  AV/107  VG/128
Jason Varitek            PO
Mike Aviles                          AV/112  AV/112  AV/103  AV/118          AV/118
Jed Lowrie                   AV/117  AV/105  AV/100  FR/108
Ryan Lavarnway           AV
Darnell McDonald                                             AV/115   FR/96   VG/97
Conor Jackson                 AV/96          PO/114           AV/88          AV/102
Lars Anderson                AV/128
Josh Reddick                                                 VG/101  FR/142  VG/120
Nate Spears                  AV/118  AV/102  PO/101  PO/106   FR/95          FR/104
Hector Luna                  FR/121  FR/105   FR/99
Will Middlebrooks                            AV/110
Jarrod Saltalamacch      FR  FR/118
Daniel Nava                                                   AV/73           AV/93
Drew Sutton                   VG/88  FR/107  FR/111   PO/99  AV/133          FR/120
Che-Hsuan Lin                                                        VG/137   VG/94
Brett Carroll                FR/112                          AV/129  AV/123   VG/30
Luis Exposito            AV
Oscar Tejeda                         AV/196          AV/130
Jose Iglesias                                         AV/92
Brent Dlugach                         FR/97   AV/96  AV/132
Joey Gathright                                                VG/83  VG/106  VG/114

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Jon Lester        L      28     3.46    16    8   30   30   187.3  163   72   18   74  186   127
Clay Buchholz     R      27     3.63    10    5   20   20   116.7  109   47   11   45   83   122
Josh Beckett      R      32     3.80    10    6   25   25   154.0  144   65   19   47  133   116
Erik Bedard       L      33     4.14     5    3   14   14    76.0   74   35    8   28   63   106
Daisuke Matsuzaka R      31     4.37     5    4   14   14    80.3   75   39    8   40   66   101
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Chris Balcom-MilleR      23     4.77     7    7   23   23   111.3  126   59   11   43   71    92
Felix Doubront    L      24     4.80     6    5   32   19    93.7  103   50   10   41   64    92
Tim Wakefield     R      45     4.93     6    6   25   17   115.0  126   63   17   34   68    89
John Lackey       R      33     4.96    11   10   26   26   161.3  185   89   19   53  105    89
Brandon Duckworth R      36     5.32     5    6   20   16    89.7  107   53   10   41   47    83
Kyle Weiland      R      25     5.43     8   10   28   27   129.3  146   78   18   63   84    81
Junichi Tazawa    R      26     5.44     6    7   25   14    82.7   95   50   14   30   54    81
Andrew Miller     L      27     5.76     6    8   28   23   115.7  134   74   13   83   77    77
Alex Wilson       R      25     5.81     5    7   25   25   117.7  142   76   18   55   70    76
Matt Fox          R      29     6.02     6    8   30   21   113.7  133   76   24   54   73    73
Greg Smith        L      28     6.33     4    6   19   17    86.7  108   61   15   44   44    70
Charlie Haeger    R      28     6.38     4    7   20   18    90.3  104   64   12   76   58    69
Stolmy Pimentel   R      22     7.00     6   13   26   25   100.3  133   78   21   51   49    63

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Jonathan Papelbon R      31     2.90     5    2   61    0    62.0   51   20    5   17   75   152
Daniel Bard       R      27     3.03     6    2   72    0    71.3   56   24    6   27   75   145
Alfredo Aceves    R      29     3.76     6    3   40    5    79.0   75   33    7   31   52   117
Bobby Jenks       R      31     3.94     2    1   33    0    32.0   31   14    2   14   32   112
Scott Atchison    R      36     3.99     4    3   46    1    70.0   72   31    7   18   49   111
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Dan Wheeler       R      34     4.14     3    2   51    0    45.7   44   21    6   12   38   106
Hideki Okajima    L      36     4.24     5    3   42    0    46.7   49   22    5   16   31   104
Matt Albers       R      29     4.28     5    3   58    0    69.3   68   33    7   32   59   103
Trever Miller     L      39     4.44     0    0   45    0    24.3   26   12    2   10   14    99
Franklin Morales  L      26     4.50     2    2   57    0    54.0   51   27    7   30   47    98
Michael Bowden    R      25     4.52     4    3   60    0    69.7   70   35    9   30   54    97
Randy Williams    L      36     4.61     1    1   35    0    41.0   43   21    3   20   29    96
Royce Ring        L      31     4.67     2    2   41    1    34.7   38   18    4   13   24    94
Dennys Reyes      L      35     4.70     1    1   24    0    15.3   16    8    2    8    9    94
Rich Hill         L      32     4.76     3    2   27    4    45.3   44   24    5   30   38    92
Josh Fields       R      26     5.32     2    3   33    0    44.0   43   26    5   37   34    83
Tony Pena         R      31     5.32     5    5   38    8    88.0  110   52    8   34   38    83
Clevelan Santeliz R      25     5.55     2    3   35    0    47.0   50   29    6   35   32    79
Tommy Hottovy     L      30     6.04     1    2   39    0    56.7   67   38   10   30   32    73


Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Carl Crawford        .286  .327  .439  2196  8766  1273  2511   415   162   199  1040   505  1365   578   102
Adrian Gonzalez      .287  .367  .495  2158  8210  1180  2357   489    26   388  1345  1006  1550     7   129
David Ortiz          .276  .366  .524  2357  8511  1329  2351   604    21   488  1625  1207  1795    12   129
Dustin Pedroia       .289  .357  .442  2013  8131  1188  2346   518    27   224   946   866   779   249   109
Jacoby Ellsbury      .286  .339  .442  1683  6895   991  1975   369    64   191   776   487   862   446   104
Kevin Youkilis       .274  .371  .467  1656  5982   929  1639   397    35   229   946   804  1206    46   118
Marco Scutaro        .269  .332  .383  1607  5756   783  1549   326    18    98   601   537   681    63    89
Jason Varitek        .255  .338  .436  1647  5421   704  1380   323    16   210   803   642  1316    25    98

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Jon Lester         213  120    0    3.71  430  430     2663 2414 1097  266 1087 2531    120
Josh Beckett       183  127    0    3.98  444  441     2736 2571 1211  332  846 2452    111
John Lackey        155  123    0    4.29  364  363     2304 2451 1097  239  715 1738    103
Clay Buchholz      120   81    0    3.81  263  259     1533 1469  650  151  632 1109    116
Erik Bedard         81   71    0    3.92  248  246     1368 1301  596  137  537 1266    112

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Adrian Gonzalez   1B     53%  33%  11%   4%   0%       Jason Giambi          Mo Vaughn        Alvin Davis
Kevin Youkilis    3B     45%  43%  10%   2%   1%          Ron Santo      Bobby Bonilla         Joe Cronin
Dustin Pedroia    2B     76%  14%   8%   3%   0%    Edgardo Alfonzo       Craig Biggio      John Valentin
David Ortiz       DH     22%  34%  22%  18%   6%     Carlos Delgado      David Justice        Boog Powell
Jacoby Ellsbury   CF     61%  15%  19%   5%   1%        Mark Kotsay         Terry Puhl       Darin Erstad
Carl Crawford     LF      9%  21%  31%  23%  18%        Vada Pinson       Steve Finley      David DeJesus
Marco Scutaro     SS     10%  14%  47%  26%   4%       Mark Loretta       Bill Madlock       Billy Jurges
J.D. Drew         RF      3%   7%  12%  23%  57%        Jim Hickman        Jim Edmonds         Adam Hyzdu
Ryan Kalish       CF      6%  10%  26%  36%  23%      Scott Lusader       Troy O’Leary     Andy Tomberlin
Jason Varitek     C      11%  24%  25%  32%   9%         Gregg Zaun       Rick Dempsey       Chad Kreuter
Mike Aviles       SS      5%  15%  37%  29%  16%        Hector Luna         Pat Meares       Clint Barmes
Jed Lowrie        SS      6%  14%  42%  28%  11%      Ivanon Coffie         Kevin Orie        Mendy Lopez
Ryan Lavarnway    C       4%  20%  34%  31%  12%       Ozzie Virgil    Charles Johnson    Bobby Estalella
Darnell McDonald  RF      0%   4%   2%  14%  81%    Chris Clapinski           Joe Hall         Kevin Bass
Conor Jackson     1B      0%   0%   2%  13%  86%        Ruben Amaro    Chris Pritchett          Nate Espy
Lars Anderson     1B      0%   1%   1%  12%  87%          Steve Cox         Nick Leach       Mike Rendina
Josh Reddick      RF      1%   1%   4%   9%  86%       Kevin Reimer       Jorge Piedra     Robin Jennings
Nate Spears       2B      3%   3%   4%  31%  59%      Tony Schrager         Alan Lewis      Mike Moriarty
Hector Luna       3B      0%   3%   8%  10%  80%   Webster Garrison      Chuck Jackson      Pinky Whitney
Will Middlebrooks 3B      0%   1%   7%  19%  73%         Stan Royer       Ty Wigginton     Craig Paquette
Jarrod SaltalamaccC       2%   9%  21%  41%  28%        Troy Afenir          Bob Geren         Bill Hayes
Daniel Nava       LF      0%   0%   1%   7%  93%    Dustin Majewski          Nate Espy     Mike Colangelo
Drew Sutton       2B      2%   2%   4%  22%  72%       Bobby Scales         Dick Green      Bret Barberie
Che-Hsuan Lin     CF      0%   0%   3%  17%  80%        J.T. Bruett     Charles Gipson         Tony Gwynn
Brett Carroll     CF      0%   0%   1%   8%  92%       John Giudice         Jeff Barry           Lou List
Luis Exposito     C       0%   2%   3%  15%  81%  Salomon Manriquez      Eli Whiteside     Gilberto Reyes
Oscar Tejeda      2B      1%   1%   2%   3%  95%      Travis Hanson        Frank Moore       Juan Delgado
Jose Iglesias     SS      0%   0%   0%   7%  94%       Jim Scranton      Fred Manrique        Eddie Zosky
Brent Dlugach     SS      1%   1%   1%   4%  95%         Nick Green        Mike Miller      Scott Sheldon
Joey Gathright    CF      0%   0%   0%   0% 100%        Joe Simpson       Jim Buccheri     Thurman Tucker

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Jonathan Papelbon RP      80%    15%     5%           Robb Nen  Rafael Betancourt  Roberto Hernandez
Daniel Bard       RP      71%    24%     5%    Ricky Bottalico      Troy Percival   Scott Williamson
Jon Lester        SP      82%    13%     5%       Sam McDowell        Lefty Gomez      Mark Langston
Clay Buchholz     SP      70%    25%     5%        Kris Benson         Tony Armas       Chuck Rainey
Alfredo Aceves    RP      34%    55%    11%      John Riedling         John Kiely         Jeff Lahti
Josh Beckett      SP      59%    36%     5%   Todd Stottlemyre       Mark Gardner     Kelvim Escobar
Bobby Jenks       RP      39%    40%    21%      Mike Williams      Antonio Osuna     Mike MacDougal
Scott Atchison    RP      30%    53%    17%      Elmer Dessens          Ted Power      Rick Aguilera
Dan Wheeler       RP      24%    50%    25%       Jeff Reardon       Todd Worrell    Jeff Montgomery
Erik Bedard       SP      44%    46%    10%     Wilson Alvarez       Denny Neagle       Chuck Finley
Hideki Okajima    RP      24%    45%    31%     Lee Guetterman        Buddy Groom     Rich Rodriguez
Matt Albers       RP      19%    53%    29%      Jimmy Serrano        Colter Bean        Brad Salmon
Daisuke Matsuzaka SP      32%    49%    19%      Dwight Gooden     Ramon Martinez      Charlie Puleo
Trever Miller     RP      24%    30%    45%        Joe Hoerner         Jim Turner       Brian Shouse
Franklin Morales  RP      15%    42%    43%    Armando Almanza     Ricardo Jordan   Dick Littlefield
Michael Bowden    RP      10%    52%    38%       Joe Borowski     Shayne Bennett       Ryan Seifert
Randy Williams    RP      21%    40%    40%    Vic Darensbourg       Kevin Hickey      Rheal Cormier
Royce Ring        RP      13%    34%    53%          Jim Poole      Mark Holzemer        Jim Crowell
Dennys Reyes      RP      29%    13%    58%      Morrie Martin   Marshall Bridges        Mike Mohler
Rich Hill         RP       9%    39%    53%   Marshall Bridges        J.C. Romero        Kevin Tolar
Chris Balcom-MilleSP      15%    58%    26%     Clemente Nunez        Kevin Brown    George Stablein
Felix Doubront    SP      13%    53%    35%     Joe Ciccarella   Darren Burroughs        Robert Dodd
Tim Wakefield     SP      17%    37%    46%        Mike Morgan      Tom Candiotti       Danny Darwin
John Lackey       SP       4%    48%    48%      Jaime Navarro      Mike Smithson         Ed Whitson
Josh Fields       RP       4%    20%    76%         Jeff Smith         Josh Banks     Ryan Henderson
Tony Pena         RP       3%    23%    74%       Mike Bruhert        Bob Scanlan        Carl Willis
Brandon Duckworth SP       4%    27%    69%           Ken Hill     Scott Erickson         Bobby Witt
Kyle Weiland      SP       1%    30%    69%          Roy North       Adam Russell       Darryl Banks
Junichi Tazawa    SP       3%    33%    64%     Eric Boudreaux        John Habyan        Ricky Rojas
Clevelan Santeliz RP       2%    17%    80%        Brett Wayne       Jeff Kennard     Ryan Henderson
Andrew Miller     SP       0%    15%    85%       Chris Mobley     Phil Dumatrait       David Purcey
Alex Wilson       SP       0%    14%    86%   Larry McWilliams         Lee Rodney        Nick Masset
Matt Fox          SP       1%     9%    90%        Doug Linton   Giovanni Carrara     Mike Heathcott
Tommy Hottovy     RP       0%     8%    92%        Bobby Bevel    Sherman Corbett     Rusty Gerhardt
Greg Smith        SP       0%     5%    94%     Mike Prochaska          Dan Smith     Brian Forystek
Charlie Haeger    SP       0%     4%    96%        Chris Rojas        Cory Morris         Joe Nathan
Stolmy Pimentel   SP       0%     1%    99%       Jared Jensen      Jonah Bayliss       Ty Hartshorn

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Adrian Gonzalez         37%      62%      69%       9%       2%      57%      44%       0%
Kevin Youkilis           7%      46%      27%       0%       2%       2%      18%       0%
Dustin Pedroia          35%      37%      20%      15%       0%       5%       9%      15%
David Ortiz              4%      19%      43%       0%       0%      23%      19%       0%
Jacoby Ellsbury         28%       5%      12%       1%       6%       0%       1%      73%
Carl Crawford           12%       0%      10%       2%      64%       1%       1%      57%
Marco Scutaro            8%       4%       2%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
J.D. Drew                1%       5%       4%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Ryan Kalish              1%       1%       1%       0%       1%       1%       1%       6%
Jason Varitek            0%       1%      13%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%
Mike Aviles              2%       0%       2%       0%       2%       0%       0%       1%
Jed Lowrie               0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ryan Lavarnway           0%       1%       1%       1%       0%       2%       0%       0%
Darnell McDonald         1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Conor Jackson            0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Lars Anderson            0%       1%       0%      12%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Reddick             0%       0%       1%       0%       4%       0%       0%       0%
Nate Spears              0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Hector Luna              1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Will Middlebrooks        0%       0%       2%       1%       0%       2%       0%       2%
Jarrod Saltalamacc       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Daniel Nava              0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Drew Sutton              0%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Che-Hsuan Lin            0%       1%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%      28%
Brett Carroll            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Luis Exposito            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Oscar Tejeda             0%       0%       0%       4%       3%       2%       0%       7%
Jose Iglesias            0%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       2%
Brent Dlugach            0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Joey Gathright           0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Jonathan Papelbon         79%        94%        99%        30%        84%
Daniel Bard               68%        94%        90%         2%        82%
Jon Lester                48%        92%        81%         0%        78%
Clay Buchholz             38%        88%         3%         1%        79%
Alfredo Aceves            27%        82%         2%         1%        84%
Josh Beckett              22%        82%        35%         6%        41%
Bobby Jenks               39%        71%        77%         3%        89%
Scott Atchison            25%        74%         5%        39%        75%
Dan Wheeler               24%        67%        30%        32%        43%
Erik Bedard               16%        69%        27%         2%        59%
Hideki Okajima            18%        55%         5%        10%        69%
Matt Albers               14%        65%        29%         0%        74%
Daisuke Matsuzaka         10%        56%        28%         0%        70%
Trever Miller             24%        44%         2%         8%        78%
Franklin Morales          10%        49%        39%         0%        51%
Michael Bowden             7%        48%        11%         0%        44%
Randy Williams            15%        52%         8%         1%        87%
Royce Ring                13%        47%         7%         8%        69%
Dennys Reyes              18%        42%         5%         6%        79%
Rich Hill                  9%        39%        32%         0%        64%
Chris Balcom-Mille         3%        40%         0%         0%        72%
Felix Doubront             2%        33%         2%         0%        56%
Tim Wakefield              5%        29%         3%        20%        31%
John Lackey                0%        17%         0%         3%        53%
Josh Fields                3%        18%        15%         0%        65%
Tony Pena                  2%        19%         0%         3%        77%
Brandon Duckworth          1%        10%         0%         0%        58%
Kyle Weiland               0%         7%         0%         0%        25%
Junichi Tazawa             0%        11%         1%         1%        15%
Clevelan Santeliz          1%        15%         3%         0%        46%
Andrew Miller              0%         3%         0%         0%        55%
Alex Wilson                0%         3%         0%         0%        17%
Matt Fox                   0%         2%         1%         0%         4%
Tommy Hottovy              0%         4%         0%         0%        15%
Greg Smith                 0%         1%         0%         0%        15%
Charlie Haeger             0%         1%         1%         0%        36%
Stolmy Pimentel            0%         0%         0%         0%         3%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 25, 2011 at 09:08 PM | 46 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. The Hal Lanier Hitting Academy Posted: October 25, 2011 at 09:37 PM (#3975320)
Ellsbury has a 0% chance of having a 30-HR season. Is it fair to say that ZiPS sees Ellsbury's 2011 season as a fluke?
   2. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: October 25, 2011 at 09:49 PM (#3975324)
So assuming Dice-K misses all of next season, at the moment the Red Sox have a grand total of 458 projected innings of above-average SP under contract for next year. Of course, the Yankees have a grand total of 396--and that includes CC who is "under contract for next year" in only the most literal of senses at the moment.

That's brutal all around.
   3. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 25, 2011 at 09:52 PM (#3975325)
Lavarnway looks too low...
His MLE for his Pawtuckett time is .271/.345/.504
and .255/.314/.398 about equal time in each so his 2011 MLE on the whole was about .263/.330/.453

his career minor league line is .284/.376/.521- no PCL or Cal league boost either
   4. zenbitz Posted: October 25, 2011 at 09:53 PM (#3975326)
Kevin Youkilis - HOF?
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 25, 2011 at 09:53 PM (#3975327)
Ellsbury has a 0% chance of having a 30-HR season.

That's mostly because of his missed playing time.

If I force 2011 PA, those odds go up to 30%.
   6. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 25, 2011 at 09:54 PM (#3975328)
So assuming Dice-K misses all of next season, at the moment the Red Sox have a grand total of 458 projected innings of above-average SP under contract for next year. Of course, the Yankees have a grand total of 396--and that includes CC who is "under contract for next year" in only the most literal of senses at the moment.

That's brutal all around


I wonder how many teams would project to have more. I bet it's less than you think. That also assumes ZiPs is getting playing time right.
   7. Ebessan Posted: October 25, 2011 at 09:55 PM (#3975331)
What it really came down to was the Red Sox, like pretty much every team, couldn't cope with having 4/5th of their preseason starting rotation injured at one point or another in September

Turns out that it was all five.
   8. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: October 25, 2011 at 10:03 PM (#3975338)
Kevin Youkilis - HOF?
Doubtful if he really ends up with less than 6000 PA. There aren't a lot of Hall of Famers who are in there with less than that. And a lot of the ones who are missed time either due to war or segregation.

I wonder how many teams would project to have more. I bet it's less than you think.
Well, there's Philly, that's one. You're probably right that not many teams have more than that (not many teams have a guy like Lester or CC) but then, not many teams have the payroll and expectations of the Red Sox and Yankees.
   9. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 25, 2011 at 10:08 PM (#3975343)
not many teams have the payroll and expectations of the Red Sox and Yankees.

Also a fair point.

Kevin Youkilis - HOF?

As a huge Youkilis backer since the days he was putting up .500+ OBPs in the low minors, I would say no chance in hell.
   10. Danny Posted: October 25, 2011 at 10:16 PM (#3975346)
That's quite a BABIP differential between Buchholz and Balcolm-Miller.

2300 more AB for Ortiz seems optimistic.

How does Randy Williams have a >50% chance at a 100 ERA+?

The Adam Hyzdu comp for Drew looks strange, but I guess he hit well in AAA at age 34.
   11. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 25, 2011 at 10:24 PM (#3975352)
Wow, check out that ISO on Varitek! Not too shabby for a 40-year-old catcher.

I'd like to request two bullpen guys if you don't mind, Dan: Cesar Cabral (the LHP one) and Eammon Portice.
   12. villageidiom Posted: October 25, 2011 at 10:25 PM (#3975353)
Matsuzaka's #1 comp is Dwight Gooden.
   13. The Hal Lanier Hitting Academy Posted: October 25, 2011 at 10:29 PM (#3975358)
Ellsbury has a 0% chance of having a 30-HR season


Thanks.
   14. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: October 25, 2011 at 10:31 PM (#3975359)
Sutton is not on the roster, I think.
   15. puck Posted: October 25, 2011 at 11:01 PM (#3975378)
It will be interesting to see if Balcolm-Miller turns into anything useful (and for Rockies fans, it will be painful if he does). He was traded for the corpse of Manny Delcarmen. 9 appearances, 8.1 IP, 0-2, 12 hits, 4 walks...
   16. cgbb Posted: October 25, 2011 at 11:14 PM (#3975382)
I noticed Ellsburuy's UZR compares favorably to other 'Vg' CF's. What stat does Ells have to improve on to be 'Vg' in CF?
   17. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 25, 2011 at 11:24 PM (#3975390)
Lavarnway looks too low...


I'm not so sure about that.

Lavarnway is a pretty extreme fly-ball hitter, with line-drive rates and in-play ISO that are on the low side - and for that reason I'm inclined to think that the HR totals he's had in the minors overstate his actual ability to drive the ball.

-- MWE
   18. ray james Posted: October 25, 2011 at 11:25 PM (#3975392)
Surprised Lavarnway is projected so low. I would think his MLEs would suggest he's at least an average MLB hitter.
   19. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: October 26, 2011 at 12:07 AM (#3975407)
I really really really really really really really really hope they give one of Doubront or Tazawa a real shot at a rotation spot. I prefer Doubront but either one is fine with me.

So assuming Dice-K misses all of next season, at the moment the Red Sox have a grand total of 458 projected innings of above-average SP under contract for next year. Of course, the Yankees have a grand total of 396--and that includes CC who is "under contract for next year" in only the most literal of senses at the moment.


BBRef shows 15 teams with more than 458 innings from pitchers who started at least 80% of their games and an ERA+ 100 or higher.
   20. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: October 26, 2011 at 01:08 AM (#3975444)
Those Varitek numbers don't look right. .452 SLG?
   21. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: October 26, 2011 at 01:15 AM (#3975451)
.473 and .423 the last two years Biff. Varitek has been cheating at the plate in a big way. Basically he's just taking as big a hack as he can and if he hits it, it goes. His ISO in 2010 was a carreer high and last year was still above his career mark.

Unrelated to Varitek I have to say that I find the modest Jose Iglesais line encouraging. If he can be the Gold Glove caliber defender he is projected to be that is actually a line that is within shouting distance of tolerable. considering how horrible he was this year that is good news.
   22. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: October 26, 2011 at 01:21 AM (#3975453)
Dan, if you are taking requests would it be possible to have a look at Daniel Bard as a starter?
   23. John DiFool2 Posted: October 26, 2011 at 02:20 AM (#3975507)
Middlebrooks has a projected BB/K of 26/152. I honestly don't think this guy belongs within a dozen light years of any top 20 Sox prospect list, but whom am I to argue with all the experts? Hope I am wrong of course.
   24. JJ1986 Posted: October 26, 2011 at 02:33 AM (#3975517)
Going from most hated team to most liked team I'm assuming?


AG#1F was right.
   25. Pleasant Nate (Upgraded from 'Nate') Posted: October 26, 2011 at 03:03 AM (#3975536)
Lavarnway is a pretty extreme fly-ball hitter, with line-drive rates and in-play ISO that are on the low side - and for that reason I'm inclined to think that the HR totals he's had in the minors overstate his actual ability to drive the ball.


Interesting Mike. What benchmarks do you use for LD rates and in-play ISO? And have you seen any studies or noted a number of players that fit this profile and didn't perform well?
   26. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 26, 2011 at 03:30 AM (#3975552)
I noticed Ellsburuy's UZR compares favorably to other 'Vg' CF's. What stat does Ells have to improve on to be 'Vg' in CF?

Do it more than once. A single season of defensive stats has about the predictive value as two months of offensive stats.

Ellsbury's UZR for 2011 was excellent, enough to get him to VG if that was the only source I used. By TZ and BIS, he was at 0 and -2 in 1900 innings in center before this year.
   27. bigboy1234 Posted: October 26, 2011 at 04:06 AM (#3975566)
Nice, keep this pace up and all the projections will be done by Thanksgiving.

Thanks for all the work Dan.
   28. Davo Dozier Posted: October 26, 2011 at 03:13 PM (#3975759)
The Sox seem to have a ton of guys who are primed for super-high-variance 2012s.

Ellsbury coming off a career-best year, Crawford and Lackey coming off career-worsts, and then guys like Ortiz and Youkilis, guys with the type of skillsets who *could* fall off a cliff any second, Adam Dunn-style.
   29. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: October 26, 2011 at 03:36 PM (#3975779)
ZiPS thinks Kalish should at the least get as long a look as Reddick in 2012.
   30. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 26, 2011 at 03:47 PM (#3975796)
Is Lin's 3rd comp, Tony Gwynn Sr or Jr
   31. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 26, 2011 at 04:13 PM (#3975832)
Wow, check out that ISO on Varitek! Not too shabby for a 40-year-old catcher.

Those Varitek numbers don't look right. .452 SLG?

.473 and .423 the last two years Biff. Varitek has been cheating at the plate in a big way. Basically he's just taking as big a hack as he can and if he hits it, it goes. His ISO in 2010 was a carreer high and last year was still above his career mark.


That .473 in 2010 was in 123 PAs, he's at .414 for 2009-2011, .440 in 2010-2011
Salty was at .443 in 2010-2011 and he projects to .410 in 2012?
Lowrie .433 and he projects at .406?

Let's just say that ZiPS seems to be deviating from Marcel more than usual here
   32. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 26, 2011 at 04:52 PM (#3975874)
Salty was at .443 in 2010-2011 and he projects to .410 in 2012?

He also slugged .371 in 2009 in the majors, and .453 in AAA (mainly the PCL) in 2010. Seems totally reasonable to me.

For Lowrie, that .433 over 2010-11 has a .382 component from 2011. Don't recall the weights ZiPs uses for past performance, but that .382 is almost certainly getting more weight. The .265 in limited time in 2009 probably doesn't help either.
   33. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: October 26, 2011 at 04:53 PM (#3975876)
ZiPS thinks Kalish should at the least get as long a look as Reddick in 2012.


That seems kind of amazing to me, given that Kalish basically had a lost year in the minors and Reddick put up a 109 OPS+ in Boston. Reddick really dropped off in Aug/Sept, but wow. I guess Reddick's minor league numbers don't really compare well to Kalish's.
   34. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 26, 2011 at 05:20 PM (#3975901)
He also slugged .371 in 2009 in the majors, and .453 in AAA (mainly the PCL) in 2010. Seems totally reasonable to me.


But he's young, Tek is not, BROCK6 (ok it's old and crappy) has Tek at .399 in 2012, Lowrie at .407 and Salty at well, way to high (BROCK6 always gives guys spike years at age 27)

Salty will be 27, and has a career SLG of .406 and ZiPS says .410?
Tek will be 40, has a carer SLG of .435 (.423 last year) and ZiPS says .452?

I don't know how the comps work in ZiPS projections, but none of Teks' top 3 played at age 40
Saltys' #1, Afenir, was a league average hitter- in AAA at age 26, his #3 was a career minor leaguer who wasn't nearly as good as Afenir - and Geren is kind of like Afenir- except Geren pulled 220 good MLB PAs out of his butt during his age 27 season somehow, before turning back into a pumpkin.

In isolation I don't necessarily see Salty's or Lowries' projection as unreasonable, compared to Tek however, it's a head scratcher
   35. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: October 26, 2011 at 05:37 PM (#3975928)
Just a quick 3-2-1 forecast (think I did this right)

Varitek - .434
Satlalamacchia - .384
Lowrie - .411

Age and other factors make those numbers suspect but just as a smell test they make Dan's numbers seem reasonably estimated to me. I'd take the under on Varitek and the over on Saltalamacchia fairly comfortably but I can see where ZiPS would get its numbers.
   36. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 26, 2011 at 06:33 PM (#3976024)
Just a quick 3-2-1 forecast (think I did this right)


at a 3-2-1 weight I get:
Varitek: .423
Salty: .428
Lowrie: .413

I think you are not accounting for the ABs each had in their respective seasons.
I really can't see where ZiPS is getting its numbers on this one

I can't see how Tek is projected to outslug Salty by 42 points:
Salty outsugged Tek last year
Salty outslugged Tek 2010-2011
Tek outslugged Salty 200-2011 by .414 to .411

Salty will be 27
Tek will be 40
   37. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 26, 2011 at 06:43 PM (#3976052)
Salty did play 72 games in AAA in 2010, and slugged .453 there, I'm not sure what his MLEs were, but plugging in a .350 brings his 3:2:1 weighted average down to .409, .325 brings it down to .402.
   38. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 26, 2011 at 06:50 PM (#3976068)
5/4/3 projection for Salty and Tek, using an MLE on Salty's 2010 minor league numbers. (I get Salty's MLE SLG for 2010 at .363.)

218/304/418 - Tek
225/291/403 - Saltalamacchia

Tek's slugging projection looks high to me, too. Saltalamacchia is just about exactly on the nose with his 5/4/3 average.
   39. TDF, situational idiot Posted: October 26, 2011 at 07:02 PM (#3976090)
Hey, if the Sox need an innings-eater, I'm sure they could reunite with one of the valiant knights who brought all things good and virtuous back into the daylight for little more than a bag of balls. Not only could hee could help the new GM prove his Epstienness, it's obvious his control is much better now - he's cut his HBPs by more than half!
   40. Darren Posted: October 26, 2011 at 07:02 PM (#3976091)
So who votes for putting our "fair" RF A Gonz in the OF and getting Pujols!

I would also love it if Scutaro was an average SS, but I fear he's not up to playing the position anymore.
   41. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 26, 2011 at 07:56 PM (#3976176)
A semi-strict R/L platoon of Lavarnway and Saltalamacchia would give the Red Sox well above offense at catcher at a nice cheap price. I like that.

Cherington said in his first news conference that he expected Reddick and Kalish to compete for the RF job. I like that.

Now they just need to acquire some good, expensive pitchers. Hope they get the right ones.
   42. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 27, 2011 at 05:37 PM (#3977005)
Tek's slugging projection looks high to me, too. Saltalamacchia is just about exactly on the nose with his 5/4/3 average.

The reason is twofold:

1) The power of love...errr...rounding. ZiPS rounds to nearest whole number and in this case, low at-bat numbers and some luck here gives Varitek a little boost. ZiPS only "really" has Varitek slugging .434. Why do I round? The year I didn't, every damn thread had people confused as to why they couldn't replicate the BA/OBP/SLG presented with the numbers given and it would look fugly to project a guy at 34.2353241502835902385 home runs.

2) The younger or older the player, the more important recent history and the less important farther history. ZiPS cares more about Varitek's .473 and .423 than the previous .390 and .359.
   43. Marver Posted: October 27, 2011 at 06:15 PM (#3977069)
Is Lin's 3rd comp, Tony Gwynn Sr or Jr

I believe that's Sr., as Jr. was referred to as 'Anthony Gwynn' in the old ZIPS projections.
   44. ellsbury my heart at wounded knee Posted: February 14, 2012 at 03:29 AM (#4060401)
Lavarnway is a pretty extreme fly-ball hitter, with line-drive rates and in-play ISO that are on the low side - and for that reason I'm inclined to think that the HR totals he's had in the minors overstate his actual ability to drive the ball.


Out of curiosity, where are you getting your minor league data? I can't find anything from 2011, but Lavarnway looks to have a pretty average to below-average flyball rate from what I can see:
Year    FB Rate   League Avg FB Rate
2010    45.7
%          46.1%
2009    38.8%          47.9%
2008    30.2%          48.6

Did he have a FB spike in 2011?
   45. Jittery McFrog Posted: February 17, 2012 at 05:25 PM (#4063709)

Adrian Gonzalez [...] Mo Vaughn
Dustin Pedroia [...] John Valentin
Ryan Kalish [...] Troy O’Leary
Scott Atchison [...] Rick Aguilera


So 2012 Red Sox remind ZiPS of the 1995 Red Sox. Hmmm.
   46. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: February 17, 2012 at 05:41 PM (#4063724)
So 2012 Red Sox remind ZiPS of the 1995 Red Sox. Hmmm.


Does that mean in October Lou Marson = Tony Pena?

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