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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, November 17, 2011

2012 ZiPS Projections - Chicago White Sox

That didn’t go too well, did it?  The White Sox find themselves at a crossroads, where they have just enough talent on the team to compete in the AL Central, but not enough depth that they

can really handle nasty surprises.  In 2011, the performances of Adam Dunn and Alex Rios and the continued lack of value from Jake Peavy (the Sox have paid him roughly $34 million for 3.6

bWAR) hit the White Sox hard enough that problems that the team could have overcome in isolation (growing pains from Beckham and Morel, giving 700 PA a year to a 5th outfielder) became

pretty glaring.

So, do they rebuild or retool?  We’ll known in a few weeks if trade talks around John Danks and Carlos Quentin become serious.  What the team can’t do is take a middle ground - even in a

weaker division, the franchise doesn’t have enough to simply tread water and hope for the best.  I wouldn’t be surprised by any outcome for Adam Dunn in 2012, from 40 homers to being

designated for assignment in June.

Next Up: Los Angeheim Angels

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Paul Konerko      R    1B   36   .278 .359 .493 134 493  68 137  23   1  27  87  59  91   1   1  124
Carlos Quentin    R    RF   29   .262 .353 .497 123 435  67 114  28   1  24  81  42  78   3   1  123
Adam Dunn         L    DH   32   .209 .340 .429 132 450  61  94  21   0  26  76  86 184   0   1  103
Dayan Viciedo     R    RF   23   .274 .328 .431 156 580  74 159  28   0  21  75  40 114   3   1  100
Alejandro de Aza  L    LF   28   .271 .328 .406 139 473  73 128  28   6   8  47  38 100  21  10   94
Alexei Ramirez    R    SS   30   .274 .321 .412 155 587  80 161  26   2  17  72  39  77   9   6   94
Ramon Castro      R    C    36   .238 .304 .448  36 105  11  25   4   0   6  17  10  30   0   0   97
A.J. Pierzynski   L    C    35   .277 .309 .394 125 462  44 128  25   1   9  48  18  42   1   1   86
Lastings Milledge R    LF   27   .259 .319 .378 134 482  60 125  23   2  10  47  37  92  17   6   85
Alexis Rios       R    CF   31   .259 .301 .404 147 564  74 146  28   3  16  63  32  86  20   8   86
Gordon Beckham    R    2B   25   .254 .318 .388 144 500  69 127  29   1  12  55  39 101   6   4   87
Tyler Flowers     R    C    26   .215 .328 .393 119 400  55  86  18   1  17  51  59 155   3   2   91
Brent Morel       R    3B   25   .261 .300 .384 140 502  60 131  25   2  11  53  27  87   8   5   81
Brent Lillibridge R    RF   28   .230 .299 .378 110 283  44  65  11   2   9  31  24  86  17   6   79
Juan Pierre       L    LF   34   .273 .329 .321 145 535  71 146  15   4   1  38  36  37  34  15   75
Brandon Short     R    CF   23   .250 .294 .391 148 608  80 152  28   5  16  66  30 164  12  10   80
Dallas McPherson  L    3B   31   .217 .281 .413 115 419  52  91  20   1  20  60  37 163   3   2   82
Tyler Saladino    R    SS   22   .234 .312 .377 123 478  81 112  25   5  11  45  47 138   8   8   82
Jim Gallagher     L    1B   26   .235 .309 .346 146 557  70 131  31   2   9  54  57 121   6   3   74
Seth Loman        L    1B   26   .219 .292 .371 140 529  58 116  21   1  19  63  33 193   2   1   75
Jordan Danks      L    CF   25   .227 .303 .348 126 466  63 106  21   4   9  43  47 166  13   5   73
Tyler Kuhn        L    2B   25   .256 .302 .335 146 562  63 144  23   6   3  46  35 110  12   8   70
Eduardo Escobar   B    SS   23   .256 .290 .344 156 582  66 149  24   6   5  51  28 127  12   7   68
Josh Phegley      R    C    24   .230 .274 .356  95 365  42  84  17   1   9  46  20  87   1   2   66
Osvaldo Martinez  R    SS   24   .241 .295 .314 146 526  71 127  23   3   3  42  35  90  11   7   63
Gookie Dawkins    R    3B   33   .210 .268 .337  99 347  32  73  18   1   8  33  25 117   6   4   60
Justin Greene     R    CF   26   .213 .276 .330 141 506  66 108  19   5  10  43  35 206  15  11   61
Christian Colonel R    3B   30   .218 .288 .308  65 211  23  46   8   1   3  13  19  51   1   2   59
Jared Mitchell    L    CF   23   .195 .268 .309 114 430  58  84  21   5   6  37  40 192  10   7   53
Donny Lucy        R    C    29   .206 .250 .289  54 180  17  37   6   0   3  11   9  54   2   1   43

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Paul Konerko                 FR/76
Carlos Quentin                                                PO/88          PO/126
Dayan Viciedo                FR/124          FR/151                          FR/110
Alejandro de Aza                                             VG/163  AV/137  VG/135
Adam Dunn                    PO/145                          PO/137          PO/132
Alexei Ramirez                                        VG/87
Ramon Castro             FR
A.J. Pierzynski          FR
Lastings Milledge                                             AV/69   FR/96   AV/96
Alexis Rios                                                           AV/76
Gordon Beckham                        AV/87   AV/98  FR/107
Tyler Flowers            FR  FR/116
Brent Morel                                   AV/79   FR/93
Brent Lillibridge            AV/112  AV/114  AV/117  AV/117  AV/106   AV/97   AV/90
Juan Pierre                                                   AV/71  FR/113
Brandon Short                                                 AV/91  FR/106   AV/99
Dallas McPherson             AV/105          FR/102
Tyler Saladino                                       AV/119
Jim Gallagher                FR/112                           AV/93          FR/117
Seth Loman                   FR/120                                          FR/114
Jordan Danks                                                 VG/115   AV/45   VG/95
Tyler Kuhn                           AV/106   AV/95   PO/99   AV/44
Eduardo Escobar                      AV/133          VG/108
Josh Phegley             VG  FR/124
Osvaldo Martinez                     AV/108  AV/115  AV/126
Gookie Dawkins                AV/78   AV/81    AV/2  PO/120  AV/106
Justin Greene                                                 AV/98  FR/119
Christian Colonel            AV/101          FR/164          FR/115          FR/119
Jared Mitchell                                                       AV/127
Donny Lucy               AV                                  FR/118

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Chris Sale        L      23     3.95    10    8   26   26   152.7  132   67   18   75  163   109
Gavin Floyd       R      29     4.08    12   11   30   29   185.3  182   84   20   50  149   106
John Danks        L      27     4.21    12   11   30   30   188.0  187   88   23   58  145   102
Mark Buehrle      L      33     4.27    10   10   27   27   175.0  195   83   21   41   90   101
Jake Peavy        R      31     4.30     8    7   21   20   119.3  121   57   14   31  102   100
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Dylan Axelrod     R      26     4.54     5    6   27   19   117.0  130   59   10   38   75    95
Philip Humber     R      29     4.86     7    8   26   23   140.7  155   76   19   37   89    89
Doug Davis        L      36     5.25     5    8   18   18    96.0  109   56   11   48   66    82
Zach Stewart      R      25     5.82     5    8   29   23   130.0  163   84   18   54   77    74
Joe Bisenius      R      29     5.98     2    3   24    8    52.7   57   35    7   41   38    72
Jose Quintana     L      23     6.14     4    8   30   12    88.0  102   60   17   45   56    70
Hector Santiago   L      24     6.15     5    9   29   14    90.7  105   62   15   53   62    70
Donald Veal       L      27     6.21     1    2   20    7    37.7   40   26    6   31   31    69
Deunte Heath      R      26     6.33     3    6   33   11    79.7   92   56   12   60   64    68
Charles Leesman   L      25     6.66     5   12   26   26   127.0  166   94   15   90   66    65

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Matt Thornton     L      35     3.21     5    3   57    0    56.0   48   20    5   19   65   134
Sergio Santos     R      28     3.53     4    3   60    0    58.7   48   23    6   27   73   122
Addison Reed      R      23     3.67     4    3   58    0    76.0   67   31    8   28   81   117
Jesse Crain       R      30     3.92     5    4   65    0    62.0   55   27    7   31   63   110
Jason Frasor      R      34     3.93     4    3   60    0    55.0   51   24    6   25   54   110
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Will Ohman        L      34     4.58     1    1   51    0    39.3   39   20    6   17   37    94
Tony Pena         R      30     4.92     3    3   42    1    56.7   61   31    7   24   40    88
Josh Kinney       R      33     4.95     3    4   55    0    60.0   64   33    7   27   46    87
Brian Bruney      R      30     5.20     1    2   39    0    36.3   37   21    5   24   32    83
Miguel Socolovich R      25     5.37     3    5   40    2    58.7   62   35    7   40   46    80
Gregory Infante   R      24     5.37     3    4   53    0    60.3   66   36    7   35   43    80
Jhan Marinez      R      23     5.94     3    6   52    0    50.0   48   33    9   45   53    73
Shane Lindsay     R      27     5.94     2    3   42    0    50.0   45   33    5   60   50    73
Anthony Carter    R      26     6.12     1    3   48    0    57.3   66   39   10   34   42    70
Nathan Jones      R      26     6.16     3    6   39    8    80.3  101   55   10   48   49    70
Leyson Septimo    L      26     6.61     2    4   45    0    47.7   49   35    6   57   43    65
Freddy Dolsi      R      29     6.72     3    7   31    9    71.0   92   53   13   36   38    64

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Paul Konerko         .278  .352  .488  2598  9445  1315  2622   466    10   501  1622  1024  1549    13   117
Juan Pierre          .293  .343  .357  1994  7720  1097  2263   259    92    17   547   486   485   609    83
A.J. Pierzynski      .280  .317  .411  1958  7037   767  1972   401    21   159   819   288   764    18    90
Alexis Rios          .267  .313  .417  1732  6596   897  1764   361    51   174   775   412  1067   227    91
Alexei Ramirez       .271  .315  .406  1670  6294   824  1706   267    21   180   764   394   756   101    90
Carlos Quentin       .253  .342  .469  1557  5455   787  1378   326    11   278   944   511   901    38   112
Gordon Beckham       .249  .317  .384  1586  5476   747  1365   321    13   131   608   456  1067    51    86

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Mark Buehrle          227  189    0    4.11  576  552     3650 3990 1665  432  856 1980    109
John Danks            159  156    0    4.31  421  421     2610 2618 1251  332  840 2023    101
Jake Peavy            159  134    0    3.88  397  393     2394 2240 1033  262  722 2232    105
Gavin Floyd           158  147    0    4.43  413  398     2497 2514 1230  308  748 1946     99

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Paul Konerko      1B     24%  28%  24%  23%   3%        Mike Piazza       Fred McGriff      Harold Baines
Carlos Quentin    RF     28%  44%  20%   7%   2%        Kevin Mench     Bubba Trammell       Johnny Rizzo
Dayan Viciedo     RF      2%  15%  19%  28%  37%     Jeff Francoeur       Jose Guillen   John Christensen
Alejandro de Aza  LF      1%   4%  13%  32%  52%Claudell Washington      Dave Martinez         Randy Winn
Adam Dunn         DH      3%   9%  19%  42%  29%      Graham Koonce        Pat Burrell       Kevin Barker
Alexei Ramirez    SS      9%  21%  30%  33%   7%        Jack Wilson      Rick Burleson       Hubie Brooks
Ramon Castro      C      11%  24%  26%  33%   7%      Lance Parrish      Paul Richards       Carlton Fisk
A.J. Pierzynski   C       4%  10%  26%  42%  19%       Paul Lo Duca       Brian Harper        Jamie Burke
Lastings Milledge LF      0%   2%   3%  10%  86%          Josh Rabe     Skip Schumaker     Dave Gallagher
Alexis Rios       CF      2%   5%  18%  39%  37%          Jim Busby       Garry Maddox    Marquis Grissom
Gordon Beckham    2B      4%   4%  11%  31%  51%      Scott Brosius          Joe Crede         Mark Lewis
Tyler Flowers     C       5%  24%  28%  31%  14%        Ben Shelton        Jeff BaileyMaximiliano Ramirez
Brent Morel       3B      1%   3%   2%  13%  83%         Mark Lewis        Kelly Paris       Reno Bertoia
Brent Lillibridge RF      1%   1%   6%  11%  83%      Randy Kutcher        Chris Jones      Damon Mashore
Juan Pierre       LF      1%   1%   1%   5%  94%        Tony Womack     Kerry Robinson         Doc Cramer
Brandon Short     CF      1%   2%   6%  21%  71%     George Hinshaw        Xavier Paul  Francisco Batista
Dallas McPherson  3B      1%   3%   5%  13%  80%       Shanie Dugas        Jim Presley          Bill Hall
Tyler Saladino    SS      4%   3%  16%  32%  46%       Jason Donald     Dick Schofield      Alex Gonzalez
Jim Gallagher     1B      1%   0%   0%   2%  98%          Gary Borg       Ron Witmeyer     Chad Alexander
Seth Loman        1B      0%   0%   1%   6%  94%        Chad Santos          Ivan Cruz        Drew Denson
Jordan Danks      CF      0%   1%   6%  13%  80%          Ty Gainey    Herm Winningham        Xavier Paul
Tyler Kuhn        2B      0%   0%   1%   1%  99%         Manuel Lee   Herman Iribarren      Royce Clayton
Eduardo Escobar   SS      1%   2%   4%  18%  77%    Alfredo Griffin      Royce Clayton         Manuel Lee
Josh Phegley      C       2%   3%   3%  11%  83%    Jeff Winchester      Joe Depastino    Carlos Corporan
Osvaldo Martinez  SS      0%   0%   3%   9%  89%   Jackie Gutierrez       Pedro Chavez         Jose Munoz
Gookie Dawkins    3B      1%   0%   0%   1%  99%        Tom Quinlan      Pete Mackanin         Jason Wood
Justin Greene     CF      0%   0%   0%   2%  99%        John Denman      Randy LaVigne       Luis Terrero
Christian Colonel 3B      0%   1%   0%   2%  98%        Keith Johns     Chris Petersen         Drew Niles
Jared Mitchell    CF      0%   1%   1%   1%  99%        Mickey Hall      Stacey Pettis         Greg Burns
Donny Lucy        C       0%   1%   1%   0%  99%        Dave Ullery     Charlie Greene        Chris Curry

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Matt Thornton     RP      62%    33%     5%       Billy Wagner        Dennis Cook         Dan Plesac
Sergio Santos     RP      50%    41%     9%       Bryan Harvey        Jeff Little      Jose Valverde
Addison Reed      RP      42%    49%     9%      Antonio Osuna   Jonathan Broxton       Mark Wohlers
Jesse Crain       RP      26%    56%    18%       Jason Frasor       Mike Hartley      Mike Williams
Jason Frasor      RP      30%    46%    24%       Jeff Parrett       Mike Fetters         Jay Howell
Chris Sale        SP      52%    42%     6%      Sid Fernandez       Oliver Perez      Dave Righetti
Gavin Floyd       SP      39%    54%     8%     Bronson Arroyo         Andy Ashby        Matt Morris
John Danks        SP      27%    62%    10%       Odalis Perez        Bob Knepper        John Smiley
Mark Buehrle      SP      34%    48%    18%        Paul Minner           Jim Kaat         Geoff Zahn
Jake Peavy        SP      28%    55%    17%        Erik Hanson    Bret Saberhagen     Shane Reynolds
Dylan Axelrod     SP      24%    52%    24%     Ramiro Mendoza          Bob Moose       Brady Raggio
Will Ohman        RP      16%    32%    52%      Trever Miller        Paul Gibson         Tim Byrdak
Philip Humber     SP       9%    47%    44%        Bryan Rekar     Dave Telgheder        Tom Brennan
Tony Pena         RP       4%    32%    64%        Kenny Greer        Terry Leach         Blake Mayo
Josh Kinney       RP       5%    32%    63%     Dave Wainhouse  Antonio Alfonseca        Dale Murray
Brian Bruney      RP       4%    25%    71%        Gregg Olson      Reggie Harris     Rich Croushore
Doug Davis        SP       3%    31%    66%      Mark Langston           Ken Hill      Mike Flanagan
Miguel Socolovich RP       1%    17%    82%     Marc Pisciotta    Jason Gilfillan     Anthony Chavez
Gregory Infante   RP       2%    20%    78%     Marc Pisciotta     Anthony Chavez      David Aardsma
Zach Stewart      SP       0%    11%    89%       Marcus Jones     Darrell Rasner        Peter Bauer
Jhan Marinez      RP       1%    10%    89%      Dana Ridenour    Lariel Gonzalez      Rickey Keeton
Shane Lindsay     RP       1%    10%    89%          Bill Bene       Calvin Jones    Billy Sylvester
Joe Bisenius      RP       1%     7%    93%   Jarod Juelsgaard        Lou Kretlow        Steve Green
Anthony Carter    RP       0%     6%    94%        Rick Krivda        Dan Boitano       Jeff Kennard
Jose Quintana     SP       0%     2%    98%      Vince Horsman       Jamie Walker        Reid Santos
Hector Santiago   SP       0%     2%    98%        Ryan Jacobs      Tyler Johnson       Scott DeWitt
Nathan Jones      RP       0%     2%    98%     Don Timberlake     Barry Hertzler      Julien Tucker
Donald Veal       SP       1%     6%    93%          Tom Doyle         Dave Walsh      Jack Taschner
Deunte Heath      SP       0%     1%    99%       Mike Butcher      Bobby Rodgers      Dilson Torres
Leyson Septimo    RP       0%     3%    97%        Peter Bauer       Tom Thurberg     Jimmy Williams
Charles Leesman   SP       0%     1%    99%      Mike Wodnicki         Greg Kubes        Matt Coenen
Freddy Dolsi      RP       0%     1%    99%      Wes Wilkerson      Reggie Ritter    Justin Brunette

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Paul Konerko            13%      23%      36%       0%       0%      28%      20%       0%
Carlos Quentin           2%      12%      42%       0%       0%      11%      12%       0%
Dayan Viciedo            3%       1%       4%       1%       0%      13%       1%       0%
Alejandro de Aza         2%       1%       1%       0%       5%       0%       0%      12%
Adam Dunn                0%       4%       5%       0%       0%      22%       2%       0%
Alexei Ramirez           7%       1%       4%       0%       0%       4%       1%       2%
Ramon Castro             0%       0%       8%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%
A.J. Pierzynski          6%       0%       2%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Lastings Milledge        0%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       3%
Alexis Rios              2%       0%       1%       1%       1%       1%       0%       8%
Gordon Beckham           0%       1%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%       1%
Tyler Flowers            0%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brent Morel              0%       0%       2%       0%       1%       1%       0%       0%
Brent Lillibridge        0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       4%
Juan Pierre              3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%      62%
Brandon Short            0%       0%       1%       1%       7%       1%       0%       1%
Dallas McPherson         0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%
Tyler Saladino           1%       1%       3%       0%       4%       2%       2%       1%
Jim Gallagher            0%       0%       1%       0%       1%       1%       1%       1%
Seth Loman               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%
Jordan Danks             0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Tyler Kuhn               0%       0%       0%       0%       8%       0%       0%       0%
Eduardo Escobar          1%       0%       1%       1%      10%       0%       0%       1%
Josh Phegley             1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Osvaldo Martinez         0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Gookie Dawkins           0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Justin Greene            0%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       1%
Christian Colonel        0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jared Mitchell           0%       0%       0%       0%       5%       0%       0%       1%
Donny Lucy               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Matt Thornton             54%        90%        98%         6%        77%
Sergio Santos             42%        88%        98%         0%        73%
Addison Reed              35%        84%        92%         2%        57%
Jesse Crain               20%        71%        82%         0%        63%
Jason Frasor              23%        69%        77%         0%        66%
Chris Sale                16%        76%        94%         0%        45%
Gavin Floyd                8%        69%        15%        17%        64%
John Danks                 5%        57%        10%         7%        44%
Mark Buehrle              10%        57%         1%        48%        45%
Jake Peavy                 8%        55%        32%        33%        51%
Dylan Axelrod              5%        46%         3%         6%        81%
Will Ohman                10%        39%        61%         2%        34%
Philip Humber              1%        23%         0%        22%        30%
Tony Pena                  4%        29%         4%         1%        48%
Josh Kinney                3%        24%        12%         0%        57%
Brian Bruney               4%        21%        43%         0%        48%
Doug Davis                 0%        12%         3%         0%        56%
Miguel Socolovich          1%        13%        16%         0%        58%
Gregory Infante            1%        17%         4%         0%        58%
Zach Stewart               0%         1%         0%         0%        24%
Jhan Marinez               0%         7%        89%         0%        25%
Shane Lindsay              0%         8%        75%         0%        71%
Joe Bisenius               0%         5%         9%         0%        47%
Anthony Carter             0%         3%         5%         0%        17%
Jose Quintana              0%         1%         0%         0%         6%
Hector Santiago            0%         1%         1%         0%        12%
Nathan Jones               0%         1%         0%         0%        46%
Donald Veal                0%         7%        31%         0%        25%
Deunte Heath               0%         1%        20%         0%        24%
Leyson Septimo             0%         2%        46%         0%        40%
Charles Leesman            0%         0%         0%         0%        50%
Freddy Dolsi               0%         1%         1%         0%        14%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 17, 2011 at 07:27 PM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Davo Dozier (Mastroianni) Posted: November 17, 2011 at 07:45 PM (#3995780)
I've always wondered--and this is more of a general wondering than something specific to ZIPS--how projection systems handle something completely unprecedented. Either unprecedentedly great (like the year Luis Gonzalez hit 57 homers) or unprecedentedly bad (Adam Dunn's 2011).
   2. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: November 17, 2011 at 07:50 PM (#3995792)
The d-ratings for Dunn, De Aza and Viciedo are a bit flip-flopped / missing.
   3. Moe Greene Posted: November 17, 2011 at 07:59 PM (#3995818)
Carlos Quentin's comps played their final MLB seasons between the ages of 29 and 31

Quentin is 29. Hmm.
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 17, 2011 at 08:00 PM (#3995821)
Yeah, the top 4 defenses are all scrambled somehow.
   5. ColonelTom Posted: November 17, 2011 at 08:01 PM (#3995826)
Konerko's defensive rating is missing - top 4 listed appear to be:

Quentin
Viciedo
de Aza
Dunn
   6. Spahn Insane Posted: November 17, 2011 at 08:26 PM (#3995876)
I had no idea Lastings Milledge is now White Sox property.
   7. The Kentucky Gentleman, Mark Edward Posted: November 17, 2011 at 08:27 PM (#3995877)
These all seem pretty accurate. I especially like Rios' projection, as mediocre as it may be.

Any chance you can do a projection for Terry Doyle? He's not much of a prospect IMO but he pitched well in the AFL & the Sox brass seems to like him.

Antonio Osuna


There's a name out of the not-so-distant past. He apparently pitched up until 2009 in the Mexican League.
   8. The Long Arm of Rudy Law Posted: November 17, 2011 at 08:39 PM (#3995892)
I had no idea Lastings Milledge was still White Sox property.
   9. The Kentucky Gentleman, Mark Edward Posted: November 17, 2011 at 08:40 PM (#3995895)
I had no idea Lastings Milledge is now White Sox property.


He made the team out of spring training & played in a few early season games. His defense was horrible & I believe he sent down for a reliever, though I'm not sure if I'm remembering things correctly.

He's young & athletic enough to play the outfield decently, he just takes really bad routes to balls. He's limited to LF & RF and I'm not really sure how valuable a corner outfielder who hits .260/.320/.380 really is. Plus the Sox already have better versions of Milledge in Lillibridge & De Aza.

I think a lot of Sox fans are banking on De Aza hitting something close to his 2011 numbers, like .300/.350/.450. I think Dan's projection is a lot closer to what he'll hit. I've heard comparisons to Shane Victorino, but Victorino was a solid major league hitter by age 25. De Aza will be 28 next year. This was mentioned on a Sox blog, but I wouldn't mind if they brought in David DeJesus instead of hoping Lillibridge or Jordan Danks will cut it as a 4th outfielder.
   10. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: November 17, 2011 at 08:43 PM (#3995899)
If they're going to go the cut-payroll-and-still-try-to-contend route, it seems to me that letting Buehrle go is probably the right move, as much as it pains me to say it. Sale steps right in and, if ZIPS is to be believed, the Sox don't lose much, outside of some innings.

There's been talk of Danks, Quentin and Floyd being dealt to shed more salary/get younger, but if you do that you're leaving pretty gaping holes. I doubt they'd get much in the way of big-time prospects for any of those three, so I'd just as soon hold onto them and go for one more push, on the hopes that:

- Dunn and, to a lesser extent, Peavy bounce back. Peavy's peripherals have been very good while he's been with the Sox. The issue is that he's been hurt, and that his ERA hasn't matched the peripherals. I think the discrepancy between 2011 bWAR versus fWAR was something like 1.5 to 3.0.

- The young players -- Beckham, Morel, Viciedo and Flowers -- are able to take a step forward. Beckham hit a wall this year and looked atrocious at the plate. Morel had an encouraging second half, and given his glove, a 90 OPS+ or so makes him a useful player. I'm not sure if Flowers will get a starting shot like the others will, but if Pierzynski can be dealt (1 year, $6 million, IIRC), that's probably another chance to save some money without losing much production.

- The pitching staff bounces back. I think the 2011 Sox finished finished second in all of baseball in pitching fWAR, which I found pretty surprising. Humber's likely to fall back a bit, but the rest of the staff are likely a good bet to match or better their 2011 numbers, which they'll more-than-need to do if the Sox hope to compete with Detroit, Cleveland and/or Kansas City.
   11. Spahn Insane Posted: November 17, 2011 at 08:46 PM (#3995902)
Wait--Gookie Dawkins? Really? (I can't believe he's only 33.)
   12. MM1f Posted: November 17, 2011 at 08:47 PM (#3995904)
I believe Milledge was solid to Japan recently. Zips lists guy's projections with their last MLB org if the player is no longer in an MLB organization.
   13. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: November 17, 2011 at 08:49 PM (#3995908)
I've always wondered--and this is more of a general wondering than something specific to ZIPS--how projection systems handle something completely unprecedented.

There's a lot of ways to approach it mathematically, but it's worth remembering that there's a lot of "trials" happening as we observe baseball players, and as such really bizarre things will happen from time to time.

Most systems essentially split the difference between "new level of play" and "bizarre fluke" by simply weighting the most recent season more heavily than the past ones, but still drawing significant info from seasons two and three years ago.

In this case, the end result is a player Adam Dunn has never actually been in the big leagues. but sometimes that's precisely what happens (Wade Boggs after 1992 is a decent example).
   14. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: November 17, 2011 at 08:51 PM (#3995913)
Milledge is currently a fa - rumored to be considering Japan. He could help a team as a platoon guy (with de Aza, who has large splits), but that might be it - and people don't explicityly platoon so much.

I've been a near one-man touting machine for de Aza's cromulency for years on this site. That's still what he is - nice glove for a corner, adequate bat v. righties, some speed without knowing how to run.

Can no one hit *and* field on this team? I guess Alexei, kind of. Ugh - what a horrid org to look at - they're a better AL version of Houston.

I'm rooting for Axelrod, though (changeup specialist plunked out of indy ball after SD cut him for reasons that weren't clear at the time).
   15. The Kentucky Gentleman, Mark Edward Posted: November 17, 2011 at 09:40 PM (#3995977)
Can no one hit *and* field on this team? I guess Alexei, kind of. Ugh - what a horrid org to look at - they're a better AL version of Houston.


I think Konerko's fine with the glove. At age 36, he doesn't have much range of course. But he can get to balls near to him with few mistakes & he's a pickin machine (this is especially valuable considering Ramirez is erratic with his throws).

If only Beckham can bump his OBP up about 50 points he'd basically be Mark Ellis because his defense is amazing.
   16. Boxkutter Posted: November 18, 2011 at 07:44 AM (#3996302)
Dan, I apologize if you've answered this before and I missed it in other comment sections,but...

You mentioned last year that you were toying with the idea of creating a projection disk that could be used with DMB10, is that still on the table? Or is it going to remain on DMB9 only? Our league has always used DMB9 so I don't care, just want to know. Thanks.
   17. Fancy Pants Handle doesn't need no water Posted: November 18, 2011 at 08:08 AM (#3996306)
Nobody projected to hit over .280... not. one.
   18. Dan Lee prefers good shortstops to great paintings Posted: November 18, 2011 at 08:18 AM (#3996310)
Dunn's top comp: Graham Koonce.

Oof.
   19. The Hal Lanier Hitting Academy Posted: November 18, 2011 at 05:44 PM (#3996550)
Paul Konerko - 500 Homer Club. What does ZiPS see dor Dunns' final career stats?
   20. JJ1986 Posted: November 18, 2011 at 05:48 PM (#3996560)
Dan,

Could we see projections for Brandon Kloess and Dan Remonosky? Thanks.
   21. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: November 18, 2011 at 08:47 PM (#3996738)
Amazing how Milledge has fizzled. Konerko for HOF? Now that would be a "WTF Hall of Famer."

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