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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

2012 ZiPS Projections - Colorado Rockies

I complain every year about the bipolar nature of Colorado’s plans, a yearly awkward mix of rebuilding and pushing for the division, but that’s almost a broken record at this point.  Though

I guess trading Ubaldo Jimenez for good prospects but then signing an average-hitting, below-average defensive Cuddyer for his declining years for $10 million a year just adds to the

hilarity.

Colorado’s pitching staff is underrated, as usual.  The Coors park factors had been down for awhile, probably because of the much-heralded humidor, but the park factor has been creeping up

in the last few years, enough to counteract the decline in league offense and make the pitching staff a lot worse than it is.  Opposite goes for the hitters, obviously.

The Rockies aren’t a great team, but a decent one with some big weaknesses, but there’s no team in the division that’s really above that description.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of

the Rockies, Giants, or Diamondbacks to win the division and to be honest, wouldn’t be horribly shocked if the Padres get enough young talent to surprise again or Kemp and Kershaw get just

enough contribution from the Ned Colletti’s 2006 All-Stars.

Next Up: Baltimore Orioles

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Troy Tulowitzki   R    SS   27   .294 .367 .533 144 537  84 158  33   4  29  98  61  93  14   6  126
Carlos Gonzalez   L    LF   26   .294 .352 .521 152 574  97 169  32   7  28 102  49 127  24   7  119
Michael Cuddyer   R    RF   33   .288 .348 .489 136 521  78 150  32   5  21  80  46  83   8   2  111
Jason Giambi      L    1B   41   .246 .358 .486  67 138  16  34   6   0   9  31  21  44   1   0  112
Seth Smith        L    RF   29   .271 .342 .473 138 402  57 109  24   6  15  57  43  79   7   1  105
Kevin Kouzmanoff  R    3B   30   .280 .316 .476 144 553  66 155  38   2  22  98  22  90   2   1   98
Dexter Fowler     B    CF   26   .258 .353 .410 155 561  86 145  34  15   7  50  78 148  19   9   94
Ramon Hernandez   R    C    36   .279 .336 .418  88 297  28  83  15   1   8  41  23  40   0   0   91
Todd Helton       L    1B   38   .267 .356 .402 109 371  42  99  20   0  10  46  53  73   0   1   93
Josh Fields       R    3B   29   .262 .320 .432  65 229  32  60  13   1   8  32  18  57   5   2   90
Jorge Cantu       R    1B   30   .272 .315 .429 121 441  52 120  27   0  14  69  25  67   1   0   87
Eric Young        B    CF   27   .258 .339 .358 131 453  68 117  20   8   3  31  51  91  42   9   78
Charlie Blackmon  L    RF   25   .272 .318 .407 111 460  55 125  25   5   9  55  25  71  18   9   83
Nolan Arenado     R    3B   21   .266 .302 .436 144 578  62 154  35   3  19  81  33  76   2   3   85
Brad Emaus        R    2B   26   .257 .327 .399 114 424  51 109  24   3  10  49  43  68   7   3   84
Matt McBride      R    1B   27   .260 .301 .432 120 458  52 119  30   2  15  67  23  73   1   1   84
Andrew Brown      R    RF   27   .248 .320 .414 115 411  50 102  16   2  16  56  40 126   2   2   85
D.J. LeMahieu     R    3B   23   .302 .328 .382 156 570  56 172  27   5   3  62  23  69  12  10   81
Tyler Colvin      L    RF   26   .245 .286 .451 147 474  64 116  24  10  18  68  27 121   5   2   84
Cole Garner       R    LF   27   .255 .301 .423  88 333  40  85  17   6   9  41  18  89   6   4   82
Chris Nelson      R    SS   26   .261 .303 .408 113 402  46 105  21   4  10  56  23  80   6   3   79
Bronson Sardinha  L    RF   29   .254 .324 .389  95 342  38  87  19   3   7  36  35  75   6   5   81
Wilin Rosario     R    C    23   .252 .285 .431 119 464  45 117  21   4  18  54  21 116   1   2   79
Eliezer Alfonzo   R    C    33   .255 .278 .432  65 220  19  56  10   1   9  34   5  52   1   1   78
Ryan Spilborghs   R    RF   32   .247 .320 .385 117 291  34  72  15   2   7  35  29  68   4   4   79
Tim Wheeler       L    CF   24   .242 .308 .395 134 542  66 131  23   6  16  62  45 148  16  10   78
Jamie Hoffmann    R    CF   27   .252 .311 .377 143 531  62 134  25   4  11  72  42 115  13   6   74
Ryan Rohlinger    R    SS   28   .244 .313 .371 118 426  52 104  24   3   8  53  37  86   3   2   74
Jordan Pacheco    R    C    26   .262 .317 .363 129 507  48 133  24   3   7  69  34  64   4   4   73
Joe Mather        R    RF   29   .245 .298 .387 107 351  39  86  20   3   8  41  26  76   5   3   73
Thomas Field      R    2B   25   .242 .315 .362 134 484  53 117  19   3  11  54  42 129   9   5   72
Willy Taveras     R    CF   30   .249 .282 .342 106 401  47 100  14   4   5  29  17  59  19   5   58
Matt Macri        R    3B   30   .232 .280 .381 116 396  38  92  23   3  10  44  25  94   2   3   67
Wilkin Castillo   B    C    28   .248 .274 .366  88 303  35  75  14   2   6  33   9  53   6   3   61
Jonathan Herrera  B    2B   27   .252 .319 .317 120 369  43  93   9   3   3  27  36  56   8   5   63
Hector Gomez      R    SS   24   .238 .265 .370  96 395  34  94  20   4   8  39  13  98  10   5   60
Wil Nieves        R    C    34   .232 .274 .298  65 198  19  46   7   0   2  19  11  35   1   0   46

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Troy Tulowitzki                                       VG/57
Carlos Gonzalez                                               VG/59   AV/84   AV/74
Michael Cuddyer               AV/91   PO/98  PO/100                  PO/114   FR/96
Jason Giambi                 PO/110
Seth Smith                                                    FR/73           FR/73
Kevin Kouzmanoff                              AV/71
Dexter Fowler                                                        AV/111
Ramon Hernandez
Todd Helton                   AV/69
Josh Fields                  AV/109          FR/119          FR/111          FR/115
Jorge Cantu                   AV/84          PO/136
Eric Young                           VG/159                  AV/120  FR/148
Charlie Blackmon                                             VG/117  AV/146
Nolan Arenado                                AV/108
Brad Emaus                           AV/100  AV/114
Matt McBride             PO  AV/167                          FR/106          FR/106
Andrew Brown                 AV/132          FR/105          FR/112          FR/112
D.J. LeMahieu                         AV/91   AV/99  PO/100
Tyler Colvin                 AV/110                          AV/128  AV/139  AV/128
Cole Garner                                                  AV/131  FR/132  AV/128
Chris Nelson                         AV/119  AV/111  FR/152
Bronson Sardinha                                             FR/113  PO/107  FR/113
Wilin Rosario            VG
Eliezer Alfonzo          AV  PO/113
Ryan Spilborghs                                              FR/101  FR/118  FR/125
Tim Wheeler                                                  AV/111  AV/160  AV/111
Jamie Hoffmann                                               AV/114   FR/40  AV/114
Ryan Rohlinger                       AV/111   VG/82   VG/84
Jordan Pacheco           FR  AV/104  PO/117  PO/107
Joe Mather                    FR/92          PO/110          FR/130   PO/83  FR/130
Thomas Field                          AV/94          FR/128
Willy Taveras                                                VG/101   AV/92  AV/105
Matt Macri                    AV/90  AV/106  FR/114  PO/107  AV/107          AV/104
Wilkin Castillo          VG  FR/115  PO/130  FR/114          FR/116
Jonathan Herrera                      AV/71   AV/95   AV/73
Hector Gomez                                         VG/131
Wil Nieves               FR

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Jhoulys Chacin    R      24     3.70    14    8   30   30   177.3  159   73   16   82  152   121
Jorge de la Rosa  L      31     4.05     8    6   19   19   113.3  106   51   13   48  104   111
Jason Hammel      R      29     4.45    10    8   30   27   165.7  178   82   19   52  111   101
Drew Pomeranz     L      23     4.53     6    5   26   26   115.3  115   58   11   59   92    99
Juan Nicasio      R      25     4.68     8    8   23   23   132.7  149   69   17   36   94    96
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Chad Bettis       R      23     4.79     8    8   27   27   157.7  169   84   18   54  121    94
Kevin Slowey      R      28     4.94     7    7   24   20   114.7  133   63   18   19   78    91
Kevin Millwood    R      37     5.05     8    8   24   24   139.0  158   78   21   47   87    89
Edwar Cabrera     L      24     5.05     5    6   22   22   124.7  137   70   18   48  103    89
Aaron Cook        R      33     5.08     6    7   21   21   117.0  137   66   14   42   58    88
Alex White        R      23     5.14     7    8   22   22   112.0  120   64   18   46   77    87
Esmil Rogers      R      26     5.19     7    8   27   20   121.3  141   70   15   49   84    86
John Maine        R      31     5.40     3    3   12   12    55.0   59   33    8   32   39    83
Billy Buckner     R      28     5.51     6    8   23   21   116.0  139   71   15   50   74    81
Greg Reynolds     R      26     5.53     5    7   21   16    97.7  124   60   13   27   46    81
Tyler Chatwood    R      22     5.66     8   11   28   27   144.7  173   91   18   75   74    79
Rob Scahill       R      25     5.79     7   10   24   23   121.3  154   78   14   60   64    78
Clayton Mortenson R      27     6.11     7   11   28   23   134.0  166   91   24   54   77    73
Josh Muecke       L      30     6.26     4    7   18   15    82.0  104   57   13   41   42    72
Christian FriedricL      24     6.26     5    8   22   22   106.3  139   74   17   46   65    72

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Rafael Betancourt R      37     2.94     3    1   60    0    52.0   43   17    6   11   62   152
Matt Belisle      R      32     3.58     7    4   67    0    73.0   73   29    7   16   59   125
Rex Brothers      L      24     3.74     4    3   68    0    65.0   54   27    6   39   79   120
Matt Reynolds     L      27     3.94     3    2   68    0    59.3   56   26    8   21   56   114
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Matt Lindstrom    R      32     4.33     3    2   58    0    52.0   55   25    5   17   37   104
Edgmer Escalona   R      25     4.75     3    3   55    0    66.3   65   35   12   26   55    94
Josh Roenicke     R      29     4.75     3    3   52    0    66.3   69   35    7   30   50    94
Sean White        R      31     4.98     2    2   49    0    65.0   73   36    6   31   35    90
Jesus Colome      R      34     5.06     1    1   17    0    21.3   24   12    3    8   15    89
Joe Torres        L      29     5.40     1    2   36    0    36.7   39   22    5   24   29    83
Casey Weathers    R      27     6.27     1    2   41    0    37.3   38   26    5   41   33    72

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Todd Helton          .317  .414  .535  2275  8086  1411  2562   594    35   366  1399  1356  1185    36   132
Troy Tulowitzki      .283  .351  .489  2234  8438  1242  2390   481    62   378  1382   864  1326   173   111
Carlos Gonzalez      .287  .344  .503  1964  7371  1205  2115   410    87   337  1224   610  1533   245   113
Jason Giambi         .280  .403  .524  2170  7070  1212  1982   397     9   437  1428  1335  1524    21   141
Ramon Hernandez      .267  .328  .414  1812  6089   662  1625   311    10   189   878   496   841     8    94
Dexter Fowler        .255  .349  .402  1773  6326   963  1610   398   146    81   551   870  1545   174    91
Kevin Kouzmanoff     .264  .304  .434  1429  5386   589  1422   323    19   184   834   231   914    17    92
Seth Smith           .267  .337  .461  1277  3597   505   962   212    48   129   487   374   655    50   101
Eric Young           .253  .332  .343   739  2443   362   618   102    36    15   157   268   461   189    73

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Kevin Millwood        183  166    0    4.29  494  486     2969 3087 1414  352  932 2224    102
Jason Hammel          111  120   12    4.81  421  343     2106 2323 1126  260  711 1420     94
Aaron Cook            105  104    0    4.73  342  308     1890 2208  994  184  611  842     97
Kevin Slowey           88   83    0    4.89  276  240     1386 1590  754  227  228  992     89

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Troy Tulowitzki   SS     78%  14%   6%   2%   0%        Toby Harrah         Cal Ripken    Tony Cuccinello
Carlos Gonzalez   LF     35%  34%  15%   9%   6%          Al Martin        Chili Davis      Rondell White
Michael Cuddyer   RF     16%  28%  21%  20%  15%     Fernando Tatis         Hoot Evers       Hector Lopez
Jason Giambi      1B     13%  20%  17%  27%  22%         Jay Buhner          Jim Thome         Jeff Manto
Seth Smith        RF     10%  24%  21%  23%  22%        Beau Allred      Ben Broussard       Keith Hughes
Kevin Kouzmanoff  3B      5%  17%  24%  28%  26%          Ken Reitz         Oriol Leon        Earl Snyder
Dexter Fowler     CF      7%  14%  28%  28%  23%        Gary Pettis        Devon White       Ray Lankford
Ramon Hernandez   C      13%  23%  23%  26%  15%        Jamie Burke          Phil Masi           Al Lopez
Todd Helton       1B      1%   5%   9%  26%  60%          J.T. Snow       Wally Joyner        Matt Stairs
Josh Fields       3B      4%  11%  18%  27%  41%Yurendell de Caster        Mendy Lopez       Mike Blowers
Jorge Cantu       1B      0%   2%   4%  20%  73%      Toby Rumfield      Dan Rohrmeier        Daryle Ward
Eric Young        CF      6%  11%  24%  32%  27%        Milt Cuyler    Roger Bernadina         Greg Tubbs
Charlie Blackmon  RF      1%   3%   4%  11%  81%       Marc Sagmoen      Lonnie Maclin        Jim Wawruck
Nolan Arenado     3B      3%   6%   9%  16%  66%    Terry Jorgensen        Cole Liniak         Gary Scott
Brad Emaus        2B      6%   6%  11%  24%  53%     Craig Counsell         Gary Scott      John Valentin
Matt McBride      1B      0%   1%   3%  17%  79%     Charley Carter         Bill Selby      Emil Drzayich
Andrew Brown      RF      0%   2%   4%  12%  82%        Kurt Airoso  Mario Encarnacion        Jimmy Hurst
D.J. LeMahieu     3B      0%   1%   5%  16%  78%      Vic Rodriguez      Damion Easley       Julio Franco
Tyler Colvin      RF      1%   3%   5%  12%  79%       Larry Barnes       Karim Garcia      Louie Meadows
Cole Garner       LF      1%   1%   2%   7%  88%          Matt Cimo     Darrell Miller     Nick Gorneault
Chris Nelson      SS      4%   7%  20%  32%  37%       Jeff Branson       Ronny Cedeno       German Duran
Bronson Sardinha  RF      0%   1%   2%   7%  89%    Derek Nicholson      Jeff Wetherby        Brian Brady
Wilin Rosario     C       2%  11%  16%  28%  43%     Craig Faulkner          Mike Diaz        Pat Borders
Eliezer Alfonzo   C       2%   7%  13%  29%  49%  Nelson Santovenia  George Mitterwald         Joe Oliver
Ryan Spilborghs   RF      0%   1%   1%   4%  94%    Derek Nicholson        Chris Sheff        Dann Howitt
Tim Wheeler       CF      2%   3%   8%  16%  71%        Mike DanielFrancisco Plasencia         B.J. Barns
Jamie Hoffmann    CF      0%   2%   7%  21%  71%        Pedro Swann       Adam Shabala    Rikkert Faneyte
Ryan Rohlinger    SS      2%   4%  11%  25%  57%       Leo Durocher     Jorge Velandia         Nick Ortiz
Jordan Pacheco    C       0%   3%   7%  20%  70%       Tom Wieghaus      Bryan Kennedy        Drew Butera
Joe Mather        RF      0%   1%   1%   3%  95%       John Giudice Alberto Concepcion      Caonabo Cosme
Thomas Field      2B      1%   1%   3%  10%  85%       Craig Kuzmic     Adam Morrissey        Billy White
Willy Taveras     CF      1%   1%   2%   6%  90%         Tony Diggs         Billy Hall    Jolbert Cabrera
Matt Macri        3B      0%   0%   1%   4%  94%        Jose Santos     Jorge Velandia   Mike Christensen
Wilkin Castillo   C       1%   2%   4%  11%  84%     Luis Rodriguez        Jason Brown   Tony DeFrancesco
Jonathan Herrera  2B      0%   1%   2%   4%  93%        Scott Cerny         Roger Holt          Jose Mota
Hector Gomez      SS      2%   2%   5%  10%  82%    Brandon Warriax        Scott Leius     Steve Scarsone
Wil Nieves        C       0%   0%   0%   2%  97%     Charlie Greene      Frank Charles     Kirt Manwaring

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Rafael Betancourt RP      73%    22%     5%   Dennis Eckersley        John Smoltz         Jay Howell
Matt Belisle      RP      54%    40%     5%      Mark Eichhorn       Donnie Moore       Joel Peralta
Jhoulys Chacin    SP      76%    19%     5%    Carlos Zambrano         Jim Clancy        Jim Maloney
Rex Brothers      RP      43%    49%     8%        Randy Myers       Dennys Reyes        John Rocker
Matt Reynolds     RP      33%    54%    14%     Eddie Guardado       Mike Stanton       Mark Guthrie
Jorge de la Rosa  SP      52%    43%     5%          Al Leiter          Ted Lilly         Doug Davis
Matt Lindstrom    RP      19%    53%    27%        Bryan Corey        Terry Leach     Scott Atchison
Jason Hammel      SP      27%    59%    14%         Kyle Lohse     Scott Erickson      Sidney Ponson
Drew Pomeranz     SP      26%    57%    17%         David West        Randy Myers        Micah Bowie
Juan Nicasio      SP      20%    61%    19%        Joe Blanton Justin Duchscherer   Andy Sonnanstine
Edgmer Escalona   RP       8%    43%    49%         Pat Neshek        Brad Clontz         Matt Roney
Josh Roenicke     RP       7%    43%    50%      Jim Dougherty     Matt Lindstrom     Ryan Henderson
Chad Bettis       SP      16%    61%    24%    Tony Brizzolara       Bob Stoddard      Derek Gaskill
Kevin Slowey      SP      13%    54%    33%        Greg Wooten        Matt Ginter        Josh Towers
Sean White        RP       5%    37%    58%           Jim Todd         Jim Coates       Jake Robbins
Kevin Millwood    SP       9%    43%    48%        Tim Belcher          Bob Welch       Kevin Jarvis
Edwar Cabrera     SP       8%    49%    42% Sterling Hitchcock          Ted Lilly       Mark Guthrie
Jesus Colome      RP      17%    32%    51%       Rodney Myers         Blas Minor         Bob Miller
Aaron Cook        SP       7%    45%    48%        Pat Ahearne  Jonathan Figueroa  Charlie Robertson
Alex White        SP       5%    44%    51%  Scott Klingenbeck   Blake Hawksworth        Matt Crouch
Esmil Rogers      SP       5%    41%    55%         Greg Field        Sun-Woo Kim Brian Partenheimer
Joe Torres        RP       4%    26%    70%        Kevin Tolar      Mike Kinnunen         Ken Vining
John Maine        SP       6%    33%    61%       Kevin Foster        Chris Rojas      Charlie Puleo
Billy Buckner     SP       1%    26%    72%    Dewon Brazelton          Ben Fritz        Greg Keagle
Greg Reynolds     SP       3%    32%    66%      Doug Waechter        Dave Eiland        Keith Evans
Tyler Chatwood    SP       0%    22%    78%     Clint Sodowsky     Carlos Paredes     Manny Bermudez
Rob Scahill       SP       1%    20%    80%      Matt Achilles       Jake Dittler     Carlos Paredes
Clayton Mortenson SP       0%     8%    92%       Danny Tamayo     Kyle Middleton    Bryan Eversgerd
Josh Muecke       SP       0%     7%    93%          Dan Smith        Eric DuBose         Jim Abbott
Christian FriedricSP       0%     7%    93%        John Kremer          Nate Teut      Sean Lawrence
Casey Weathers    RP       1%    10%    89%       Eric Cammack          Bill Bene      Archie Corbin

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Troy Tulowitzki         41%      37%      70%       7%       6%      43%      22%       6%
Carlos Gonzalez         41%      20%      67%       6%      25%      40%      12%      23%
Michael Cuddyer         31%      19%      35%       5%       8%      10%       6%       1%
Jason Giambi             9%      31%      35%       0%       0%       0%      10%       0%
Seth Smith              13%      13%      28%       0%      14%       1%       2%       1%
Kevin Kouzmanoff        19%       1%      25%      17%       1%      12%       1%       0%
Dexter Fowler            4%      19%       1%       9%      80%       0%       0%       5%
Ramon Hernandez         26%      14%       9%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Todd Helton             11%      26%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Josh Fields             12%       5%      10%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Jorge Cantu             12%       1%       4%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Eric Young               5%       9%       0%       0%      36%       0%       0%      89%
Charlie Blackmon        12%       1%       3%       0%       7%       0%       0%       9%
Nolan Arenado            8%       1%      12%      14%       3%      12%       2%       0%
Brad Emaus               5%       4%       3%       0%       2%       0%       0%       1%
Matt McBride             5%       0%       4%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Andrew Brown             2%       2%       2%       0%       1%       1%       0%       0%
D.J. LeMahieu           53%       3%       0%       2%      11%       0%       0%       3%
Tyler Colvin             1%       0%      13%       0%      51%       3%       0%       0%
Cole Garner              4%       1%       5%       0%      11%       0%       1%       0%
Chris Nelson             6%       0%       4%       0%       3%       0%       0%       1%
Bronson Sardinha         4%       5%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Wilin Rosario            2%       0%       9%       0%       6%       5%       0%       0%
Eliezer Alfonzo          8%       0%       9%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ryan Spilborghs          3%       3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Tim Wheeler              1%       1%       3%       0%      16%       3%       1%       5%
Jamie Hoffmann           2%       0%       0%       1%       5%       0%       0%       1%
Ryan Rohlinger           2%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Jordan Pacheco           5%       1%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Joe Mather               2%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Thomas Field             1%       1%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       1%
Willy Taveras            3%       0%       1%       0%       4%       0%       0%       3%
Matt Macri               0%       0%       1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Wilkin Castillo          3%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jonathan Herrera         4%       2%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Hector Gomez             1%       0%       3%       0%       6%       1%       0%       1%
Wil Nieves               3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Rafael Betancourt         77%        94%        99%        70%        62%
Matt Belisle              47%        90%        21%        54%        77%
Jhoulys Chacin            38%        91%        36%         0%        83%
Rex Brothers              43%        86%        97%         0%        72%
Matt Reynolds             26%        76%        60%         5%        53%
Jorge de la Rosa          17%        76%        57%         0%        61%
Matt Lindstrom            14%        66%         5%        13%        72%
Jason Hammel               4%        56%         1%         4%        49%
Drew Pomeranz              5%        50%        15%         0%        75%
Juan Nicasio               3%        45%         2%        23%        41%
Edgmer Escalona            6%        44%        24%         2%        12%
Josh Roenicke              5%        43%         9%         0%        55%
Chad Bettis                2%        41%         9%         2%        56%
Kevin Slowey               2%        31%         1%        95%        19%
Sean White                 5%        31%         1%         1%        66%
Kevin Millwood             2%        22%         1%         4%        16%
Edwar Cabrera              1%        24%        25%         0%        22%
Jesus Colome              17%        37%        10%        23%        51%
Aaron Cook                 1%        21%         0%         3%        54%
Alex White                 1%        19%         2%         0%        12%
Esmil Rogers               0%        14%         1%         0%        48%
Joe Torres                 4%        22%        20%         0%        50%
John Maine                 2%        16%         5%         0%        39%
Billy Buckner              0%         8%         0%         0%        37%
Greg Reynolds              0%        11%         0%        23%        39%
Tyler Chatwood             0%         3%         0%         0%        43%
Rob Scahill                0%         4%         0%         0%        60%
Clayton Mortenson          0%         1%         0%         0%         5%
Josh Muecke                0%         2%         0%         0%        17%
Christian Friedrich        0%         1%         0%         0%        15%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
Braves
Astros
Cardinals
Dodgers
Twins
Giants
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2011 at 08:39 PM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2011 at 08:47 PM (#4023976)
Forgot to tack on Casey Blake - 247/319/396 81 OPS+ Still averageish defense.
   2. BobbyS Posted: December 27, 2011 at 08:48 PM (#4023977)
How does Seth Smith do better than his 2011 projection, but get a worse projection this year at only age 29? What does ZiPs see?

Just a quick glance at FanGraphs defense, he had 2 good years defensively, and a bad 2011, was it THAT bad that it warrants a drop to FR?


Also... Are Tulo's/Cargo's Best years passed them already?
   3. xanthan Posted: December 27, 2011 at 08:51 PM (#4023979)
Dan,

I don't know if this is easily check-able, or not, but is Giambi's projection (112 OPS+) one of the best ZiPS projections (non-Bonds division) for a 41+ year old hitter? Seems kind of incredible to me.
   4. guyute Posted: December 27, 2011 at 09:23 PM (#4023992)
Dan,

Since the Angels are already out, can we get Chris Iannetta's sim? Thank for all the hard work.
   5. Jim Wisinski Posted: December 27, 2011 at 09:23 PM (#4023993)
Wow, Jesus Colome sighting. Jorge Cantu as well, maybe they can both get on the major league roster and bring back the glory of the 2004-05 Devil Rays.
   6. DevinM Posted: December 27, 2011 at 09:32 PM (#4023999)
Just curious but whats with the Clayton Mortenson hate that is a terrible zip for him.
   7. The District Attorney Posted: December 27, 2011 at 10:00 PM (#4024012)
That's the exact reason, actually. Just pure blind, unreasoning hate for Clayton Mortensen.
   8. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 27, 2011 at 10:18 PM (#4024020)
Betancourt has some pretty fancy comps there.

Also you weren't kidding when you said they've got some holes. Wow. Hernandez, Giambi/Helton, Emaus, Kouzmanoff. Ugh. Fowler at least looks like he'll be fun.
   9. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: December 27, 2011 at 10:22 PM (#4024022)
Rex Brothers! That's a great name. Sounds like he should be part of a barbershop quartet.
   10. BobbyS Posted: December 27, 2011 at 10:27 PM (#4024024)
Also you weren't kidding when you said they've got some holes. Wow. Hernandez, Giambi/Helton, Emaus, Kouzmanoff. Ugh. Fowler at least looks like he'll be fun.


Hernandez is fine, offensively (Defensive rating is missing).... Young's speed and defense probably make him an average 2b in the end. the others, I pretty much agree with, though not a Fowler fan. They should go after Rizzo
   11. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 27, 2011 at 10:31 PM (#4024028)
Just curious but whats with the Clayton Mortenson hate that is a terrible zip for him.

Wonder what a 9.42 ERA in Colorado Springs translates to?
   12. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: December 27, 2011 at 10:37 PM (#4024031)
Bitter A's fan here. I'll take the under on Kouzmanoff.
   13. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 27, 2011 at 11:25 PM (#4024052)
Hernandez is fine


I guess his projection isn't bad for a catcher but he's also 36. He could collapse any day. Like tonight.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: December 28, 2011 at 12:26 AM (#4024082)
How does Kouz get a 98? He's been 97, 84 and 74 the last 3 years; heck only 100 the year before that.

Or does ZiPS now (rightly!) incorporate the "Oakland Effect" whereby every hitter becomes immediately depressed upon arrival and it takes them 6 months after leaving to recover?
   15. Der-K thinks the Essex Green were a good band. Posted: December 28, 2011 at 12:38 AM (#4024087)
I was wondering what kouz's neutral park ops+ would be myself... Last year's proj w/ OAK was 92.
   16. puck Posted: December 28, 2011 at 02:05 AM (#4024120)
I complain every year about the bipolar nature of Colorado's plans, a yearly awkward mix of rebuilding and pushing for the division, but that's almost a broken record at this point.


I also think each year I comment on how this is not quite the case. However, O'Dowd appears to have gone back to not having a plan, so I withdraw all objections.

Wow, they are going to have a crappy bench again. Not to mention holes at 2nd and 3rd if they don't make a trade.
   17. puck Posted: December 28, 2011 at 02:10 AM (#4024123)
Just curious but whats with the Clayton Mortenson hate that is a terrible zip for him.


It's better than last season's.
   18. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 28, 2011 at 02:33 AM (#4024132)
NL is little easier and Oakland ought to have been a particularly bad park for him (and Colorado particular good). Plus, his Sacramento hitting translates to a little better than the rest of his line.
   19. Der-K thinks the Essex Green were a good band. Posted: December 28, 2011 at 03:45 AM (#4024150)
Sure, sure - I was just curious as to the actual # of points difference.
(And the MLE doesn't exactly *help* him in the absolute sense - you had him (trans. to OAK) as a .258/.287/.438.)
   20. dazzle Posted: December 28, 2011 at 04:04 AM (#4024158)
Based on his #1 comp it appears Ryan Rohlinger may have a managing future in store for him.
   21. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 28, 2011 at 05:04 AM (#4024183)
(And the MLE doesn't exactly *help* him in the absolute sense - you had him (trans. to OAK) as a .258/.287/.438.)

Yeah, but that's enough for a 97 in Oakland.

Change the park to Colorado (most of Kouzmanoff's offensive value was in HR, which is good in Denver but bad in Oakland) and the park change and league change move that to 288/315/513, or a 109.
   22. Walt Davis Posted: December 28, 2011 at 05:59 AM (#4024204)
288/315/513, or a 109.

In other words, ZiPS is on crack. :-)
   23. guyute Posted: December 30, 2011 at 05:19 PM (#4025772)
Dan, can we get Iannetta's sim? He fell through the cracks being traded after the LAA sims came out.
   24. BobbyS Posted: December 30, 2011 at 05:49 PM (#4025801)
Dan, can we get Iannetta's sim? He fell through the cracks being traded after the LAA sims came out.


I asked Dan earlier...Iannetta is: 223/348/390, OPS+ 103, 2.2 WAR

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