2012 ZiPS Projections - Colorado Rockies
I complain every year about the bipolar nature of Colorado’s plans, a yearly awkward mix of rebuilding and pushing for the division, but that’s almost a broken record at this point. Though
I guess trading Ubaldo Jimenez for good prospects but then signing an average-hitting, below-average defensive Cuddyer for his declining years for $10 million a year just adds to the
hilarity.
Colorado’s pitching staff is underrated, as usual. The Coors park factors had been down for awhile, probably because of the much-heralded humidor, but the park factor has been creeping up
in the last few years, enough to counteract the decline in league offense and make the pitching staff a lot worse than it is. Opposite goes for the hitters, obviously.
The Rockies aren’t a great team, but a decent one with some big weaknesses, but there’s no team in the division that’s really above that description. I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of
the Rockies, Giants, or Diamondbacks to win the division and to be honest, wouldn’t be horribly shocked if the Padres get enough young talent to surprise again or Kemp and Kershaw get just
enough contribution from the Ned Colletti’s 2006 All-Stars.
Next Up: Baltimore Orioles
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Batting Projections
Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
Troy Tulowitzki R SS 27 .294 .367 .533 144 537 84 158 33 4 29 98 61 93 14 6 126
Carlos Gonzalez L LF 26 .294 .352 .521 152 574 97 169 32 7 28 102 49 127 24 7 119
Michael Cuddyer R RF 33 .288 .348 .489 136 521 78 150 32 5 21 80 46 83 8 2 111
Jason Giambi L 1B 41 .246 .358 .486 67 138 16 34 6 0 9 31 21 44 1 0 112
Seth Smith L RF 29 .271 .342 .473 138 402 57 109 24 6 15 57 43 79 7 1 105
Kevin Kouzmanoff R 3B 30 .280 .316 .476 144 553 66 155 38 2 22 98 22 90 2 1 98
Dexter Fowler B CF 26 .258 .353 .410 155 561 86 145 34 15 7 50 78 148 19 9 94
Ramon Hernandez R C 36 .279 .336 .418 88 297 28 83 15 1 8 41 23 40 0 0 91
Todd Helton L 1B 38 .267 .356 .402 109 371 42 99 20 0 10 46 53 73 0 1 93
Josh Fields R 3B 29 .262 .320 .432 65 229 32 60 13 1 8 32 18 57 5 2 90
Jorge Cantu R 1B 30 .272 .315 .429 121 441 52 120 27 0 14 69 25 67 1 0 87
Eric Young B CF 27 .258 .339 .358 131 453 68 117 20 8 3 31 51 91 42 9 78
Charlie Blackmon L RF 25 .272 .318 .407 111 460 55 125 25 5 9 55 25 71 18 9 83
Nolan Arenado R 3B 21 .266 .302 .436 144 578 62 154 35 3 19 81 33 76 2 3 85
Brad Emaus R 2B 26 .257 .327 .399 114 424 51 109 24 3 10 49 43 68 7 3 84
Matt McBride R 1B 27 .260 .301 .432 120 458 52 119 30 2 15 67 23 73 1 1 84
Andrew Brown R RF 27 .248 .320 .414 115 411 50 102 16 2 16 56 40 126 2 2 85
D.J. LeMahieu R 3B 23 .302 .328 .382 156 570 56 172 27 5 3 62 23 69 12 10 81
Tyler Colvin L RF 26 .245 .286 .451 147 474 64 116 24 10 18 68 27 121 5 2 84
Cole Garner R LF 27 .255 .301 .423 88 333 40 85 17 6 9 41 18 89 6 4 82
Chris Nelson R SS 26 .261 .303 .408 113 402 46 105 21 4 10 56 23 80 6 3 79
Bronson Sardinha L RF 29 .254 .324 .389 95 342 38 87 19 3 7 36 35 75 6 5 81
Wilin Rosario R C 23 .252 .285 .431 119 464 45 117 21 4 18 54 21 116 1 2 79
Eliezer Alfonzo R C 33 .255 .278 .432 65 220 19 56 10 1 9 34 5 52 1 1 78
Ryan Spilborghs R RF 32 .247 .320 .385 117 291 34 72 15 2 7 35 29 68 4 4 79
Tim Wheeler L CF 24 .242 .308 .395 134 542 66 131 23 6 16 62 45 148 16 10 78
Jamie Hoffmann R CF 27 .252 .311 .377 143 531 62 134 25 4 11 72 42 115 13 6 74
Ryan Rohlinger R SS 28 .244 .313 .371 118 426 52 104 24 3 8 53 37 86 3 2 74
Jordan Pacheco R C 26 .262 .317 .363 129 507 48 133 24 3 7 69 34 64 4 4 73
Joe Mather R RF 29 .245 .298 .387 107 351 39 86 20 3 8 41 26 76 5 3 73
Thomas Field R 2B 25 .242 .315 .362 134 484 53 117 19 3 11 54 42 129 9 5 72
Willy Taveras R CF 30 .249 .282 .342 106 401 47 100 14 4 5 29 17 59 19 5 58
Matt Macri R 3B 30 .232 .280 .381 116 396 38 92 23 3 10 44 25 94 2 3 67
Wilkin Castillo B C 28 .248 .274 .366 88 303 35 75 14 2 6 33 9 53 6 3 61
Jonathan Herrera B 2B 27 .252 .319 .317 120 369 43 93 9 3 3 27 36 56 8 5 63
Hector Gomez R SS 24 .238 .265 .370 96 395 34 94 20 4 8 39 13 98 10 5 60
Wil Nieves R C 34 .232 .274 .298 65 198 19 46 7 0 2 19 11 35 1 0 46
Defensive Projections
Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF
Troy Tulowitzki VG/57
Carlos Gonzalez VG/59 AV/84 AV/74
Michael Cuddyer AV/91 PO/98 PO/100 PO/114 FR/96
Jason Giambi PO/110
Seth Smith FR/73 FR/73
Kevin Kouzmanoff AV/71
Dexter Fowler AV/111
Ramon Hernandez
Todd Helton AV/69
Josh Fields AV/109 FR/119 FR/111 FR/115
Jorge Cantu AV/84 PO/136
Eric Young VG/159 AV/120 FR/148
Charlie Blackmon VG/117 AV/146
Nolan Arenado AV/108
Brad Emaus AV/100 AV/114
Matt McBride PO AV/167 FR/106 FR/106
Andrew Brown AV/132 FR/105 FR/112 FR/112
D.J. LeMahieu AV/91 AV/99 PO/100
Tyler Colvin AV/110 AV/128 AV/139 AV/128
Cole Garner AV/131 FR/132 AV/128
Chris Nelson AV/119 AV/111 FR/152
Bronson Sardinha FR/113 PO/107 FR/113
Wilin Rosario VG
Eliezer Alfonzo AV PO/113
Ryan Spilborghs FR/101 FR/118 FR/125
Tim Wheeler AV/111 AV/160 AV/111
Jamie Hoffmann AV/114 FR/40 AV/114
Ryan Rohlinger AV/111 VG/82 VG/84
Jordan Pacheco FR AV/104 PO/117 PO/107
Joe Mather FR/92 PO/110 FR/130 PO/83 FR/130
Thomas Field AV/94 FR/128
Willy Taveras VG/101 AV/92 AV/105
Matt Macri AV/90 AV/106 FR/114 PO/107 AV/107 AV/104
Wilkin Castillo VG FR/115 PO/130 FR/114 FR/116
Jonathan Herrera AV/71 AV/95 AV/73
Hector Gomez VG/131
Wil Nieves FR
Pitching Projections - Starters
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Jhoulys Chacin R 24 3.70 14 8 30 30 177.3 159 73 16 82 152 121
Jorge de la Rosa L 31 4.05 8 6 19 19 113.3 106 51 13 48 104 111
Jason Hammel R 29 4.45 10 8 30 27 165.7 178 82 19 52 111 101
Drew Pomeranz L 23 4.53 6 5 26 26 115.3 115 58 11 59 92 99
Juan Nicasio R 25 4.68 8 8 23 23 132.7 149 69 17 36 94 96
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96
Chad Bettis R 23 4.79 8 8 27 27 157.7 169 84 18 54 121 94
Kevin Slowey R 28 4.94 7 7 24 20 114.7 133 63 18 19 78 91
Kevin Millwood R 37 5.05 8 8 24 24 139.0 158 78 21 47 87 89
Edwar Cabrera L 24 5.05 5 6 22 22 124.7 137 70 18 48 103 89
Aaron Cook R 33 5.08 6 7 21 21 117.0 137 66 14 42 58 88
Alex White R 23 5.14 7 8 22 22 112.0 120 64 18 46 77 87
Esmil Rogers R 26 5.19 7 8 27 20 121.3 141 70 15 49 84 86
John Maine R 31 5.40 3 3 12 12 55.0 59 33 8 32 39 83
Billy Buckner R 28 5.51 6 8 23 21 116.0 139 71 15 50 74 81
Greg Reynolds R 26 5.53 5 7 21 16 97.7 124 60 13 27 46 81
Tyler Chatwood R 22 5.66 8 11 28 27 144.7 173 91 18 75 74 79
Rob Scahill R 25 5.79 7 10 24 23 121.3 154 78 14 60 64 78
Clayton Mortenson R 27 6.11 7 11 28 23 134.0 166 91 24 54 77 73
Josh Muecke L 30 6.26 4 7 18 15 82.0 104 57 13 41 42 72
Christian FriedricL 24 6.26 5 8 22 22 106.3 139 74 17 46 65 72
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Rafael Betancourt R 37 2.94 3 1 60 0 52.0 43 17 6 11 62 152
Matt Belisle R 32 3.58 7 4 67 0 73.0 73 29 7 16 59 125
Rex Brothers L 24 3.74 4 3 68 0 65.0 54 27 6 39 79 120
Matt Reynolds L 27 3.94 3 2 68 0 59.3 56 26 8 21 56 114
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Matt Lindstrom R 32 4.33 3 2 58 0 52.0 55 25 5 17 37 104
Edgmer Escalona R 25 4.75 3 3 55 0 66.3 65 35 12 26 55 94
Josh Roenicke R 29 4.75 3 3 52 0 66.3 69 35 7 30 50 94
Sean White R 31 4.98 2 2 49 0 65.0 73 36 6 31 35 90
Jesus Colome R 34 5.06 1 1 17 0 21.3 24 12 3 8 15 89
Joe Torres L 29 5.40 1 2 36 0 36.7 39 22 5 24 29 83
Casey Weathers R 27 6.27 1 2 41 0 37.3 38 26 5 41 33 72
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+
Todd Helton .317 .414 .535 2275 8086 1411 2562 594 35 366 1399 1356 1185 36 132
Troy Tulowitzki .283 .351 .489 2234 8438 1242 2390 481 62 378 1382 864 1326 173 111
Carlos Gonzalez .287 .344 .503 1964 7371 1205 2115 410 87 337 1224 610 1533 245 113
Jason Giambi .280 .403 .524 2170 7070 1212 1982 397 9 437 1428 1335 1524 21 141
Ramon Hernandez .267 .328 .414 1812 6089 662 1625 311 10 189 878 496 841 8 94
Dexter Fowler .255 .349 .402 1773 6326 963 1610 398 146 81 551 870 1545 174 91
Kevin Kouzmanoff .264 .304 .434 1429 5386 589 1422 323 19 184 834 231 914 17 92
Seth Smith .267 .337 .461 1277 3597 505 962 212 48 129 487 374 655 50 101
Eric Young .253 .332 .343 739 2443 362 618 102 36 15 157 268 461 189 73
Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
Kevin Millwood 183 166 0 4.29 494 486 2969 3087 1414 352 932 2224 102
Jason Hammel 111 120 12 4.81 421 343 2106 2323 1126 260 711 1420 94
Aaron Cook 105 104 0 4.73 342 308 1890 2208 994 184 611 842 97
Kevin Slowey 88 83 0 4.89 276 240 1386 1590 754 227 228 992 89
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
Troy Tulowitzki SS 78% 14% 6% 2% 0% Toby Harrah Cal Ripken Tony Cuccinello
Carlos Gonzalez LF 35% 34% 15% 9% 6% Al Martin Chili Davis Rondell White
Michael Cuddyer RF 16% 28% 21% 20% 15% Fernando Tatis Hoot Evers Hector Lopez
Jason Giambi 1B 13% 20% 17% 27% 22% Jay Buhner Jim Thome Jeff Manto
Seth Smith RF 10% 24% 21% 23% 22% Beau Allred Ben Broussard Keith Hughes
Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B 5% 17% 24% 28% 26% Ken Reitz Oriol Leon Earl Snyder
Dexter Fowler CF 7% 14% 28% 28% 23% Gary Pettis Devon White Ray Lankford
Ramon Hernandez C 13% 23% 23% 26% 15% Jamie Burke Phil Masi Al Lopez
Todd Helton 1B 1% 5% 9% 26% 60% J.T. Snow Wally Joyner Matt Stairs
Josh Fields 3B 4% 11% 18% 27% 41%Yurendell de Caster Mendy Lopez Mike Blowers
Jorge Cantu 1B 0% 2% 4% 20% 73% Toby Rumfield Dan Rohrmeier Daryle Ward
Eric Young CF 6% 11% 24% 32% 27% Milt Cuyler Roger Bernadina Greg Tubbs
Charlie Blackmon RF 1% 3% 4% 11% 81% Marc Sagmoen Lonnie Maclin Jim Wawruck
Nolan Arenado 3B 3% 6% 9% 16% 66% Terry Jorgensen Cole Liniak Gary Scott
Brad Emaus 2B 6% 6% 11% 24% 53% Craig Counsell Gary Scott John Valentin
Matt McBride 1B 0% 1% 3% 17% 79% Charley Carter Bill Selby Emil Drzayich
Andrew Brown RF 0% 2% 4% 12% 82% Kurt Airoso Mario Encarnacion Jimmy Hurst
D.J. LeMahieu 3B 0% 1% 5% 16% 78% Vic Rodriguez Damion Easley Julio Franco
Tyler Colvin RF 1% 3% 5% 12% 79% Larry Barnes Karim Garcia Louie Meadows
Cole Garner LF 1% 1% 2% 7% 88% Matt Cimo Darrell Miller Nick Gorneault
Chris Nelson SS 4% 7% 20% 32% 37% Jeff Branson Ronny Cedeno German Duran
Bronson Sardinha RF 0% 1% 2% 7% 89% Derek Nicholson Jeff Wetherby Brian Brady
Wilin Rosario C 2% 11% 16% 28% 43% Craig Faulkner Mike Diaz Pat Borders
Eliezer Alfonzo C 2% 7% 13% 29% 49% Nelson Santovenia George Mitterwald Joe Oliver
Ryan Spilborghs RF 0% 1% 1% 4% 94% Derek Nicholson Chris Sheff Dann Howitt
Tim Wheeler CF 2% 3% 8% 16% 71% Mike DanielFrancisco Plasencia B.J. Barns
Jamie Hoffmann CF 0% 2% 7% 21% 71% Pedro Swann Adam Shabala Rikkert Faneyte
Ryan Rohlinger SS 2% 4% 11% 25% 57% Leo Durocher Jorge Velandia Nick Ortiz
Jordan Pacheco C 0% 3% 7% 20% 70% Tom Wieghaus Bryan Kennedy Drew Butera
Joe Mather RF 0% 1% 1% 3% 95% John Giudice Alberto Concepcion Caonabo Cosme
Thomas Field 2B 1% 1% 3% 10% 85% Craig Kuzmic Adam Morrissey Billy White
Willy Taveras CF 1% 1% 2% 6% 90% Tony Diggs Billy Hall Jolbert Cabrera
Matt Macri 3B 0% 0% 1% 4% 94% Jose Santos Jorge Velandia Mike Christensen
Wilkin Castillo C 1% 2% 4% 11% 84% Luis Rodriguez Jason Brown Tony DeFrancesco
Jonathan Herrera 2B 0% 1% 2% 4% 93% Scott Cerny Roger Holt Jose Mota
Hector Gomez SS 2% 2% 5% 10% 82% Brandon Warriax Scott Leius Steve Scarsone
Wil Nieves C 0% 0% 0% 2% 97% Charlie Greene Frank Charles Kirt Manwaring
Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3
Rafael Betancourt RP 73% 22% 5% Dennis Eckersley John Smoltz Jay Howell
Matt Belisle RP 54% 40% 5% Mark Eichhorn Donnie Moore Joel Peralta
Jhoulys Chacin SP 76% 19% 5% Carlos Zambrano Jim Clancy Jim Maloney
Rex Brothers RP 43% 49% 8% Randy Myers Dennys Reyes John Rocker
Matt Reynolds RP 33% 54% 14% Eddie Guardado Mike Stanton Mark Guthrie
Jorge de la Rosa SP 52% 43% 5% Al Leiter Ted Lilly Doug Davis
Matt Lindstrom RP 19% 53% 27% Bryan Corey Terry Leach Scott Atchison
Jason Hammel SP 27% 59% 14% Kyle Lohse Scott Erickson Sidney Ponson
Drew Pomeranz SP 26% 57% 17% David West Randy Myers Micah Bowie
Juan Nicasio SP 20% 61% 19% Joe Blanton Justin Duchscherer Andy Sonnanstine
Edgmer Escalona RP 8% 43% 49% Pat Neshek Brad Clontz Matt Roney
Josh Roenicke RP 7% 43% 50% Jim Dougherty Matt Lindstrom Ryan Henderson
Chad Bettis SP 16% 61% 24% Tony Brizzolara Bob Stoddard Derek Gaskill
Kevin Slowey SP 13% 54% 33% Greg Wooten Matt Ginter Josh Towers
Sean White RP 5% 37% 58% Jim Todd Jim Coates Jake Robbins
Kevin Millwood SP 9% 43% 48% Tim Belcher Bob Welch Kevin Jarvis
Edwar Cabrera SP 8% 49% 42% Sterling Hitchcock Ted Lilly Mark Guthrie
Jesus Colome RP 17% 32% 51% Rodney Myers Blas Minor Bob Miller
Aaron Cook SP 7% 45% 48% Pat Ahearne Jonathan Figueroa Charlie Robertson
Alex White SP 5% 44% 51% Scott Klingenbeck Blake Hawksworth Matt Crouch
Esmil Rogers SP 5% 41% 55% Greg Field Sun-Woo Kim Brian Partenheimer
Joe Torres RP 4% 26% 70% Kevin Tolar Mike Kinnunen Ken Vining
John Maine SP 6% 33% 61% Kevin Foster Chris Rojas Charlie Puleo
Billy Buckner SP 1% 26% 72% Dewon Brazelton Ben Fritz Greg Keagle
Greg Reynolds SP 3% 32% 66% Doug Waechter Dave Eiland Keith Evans
Tyler Chatwood SP 0% 22% 78% Clint Sodowsky Carlos Paredes Manny Bermudez
Rob Scahill SP 1% 20% 80% Matt Achilles Jake Dittler Carlos Paredes
Clayton Mortenson SP 0% 8% 92% Danny Tamayo Kyle Middleton Bryan Eversgerd
Josh Muecke SP 0% 7% 93% Dan Smith Eric DuBose Jim Abbott
Christian FriedricSP 0% 7% 93% John Kremer Nate Teut Sean Lawrence
Casey Weathers RP 1% 10% 89% Eric Cammack Bill Bene Archie Corbin
Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB
Troy Tulowitzki 41% 37% 70% 7% 6% 43% 22% 6%
Carlos Gonzalez 41% 20% 67% 6% 25% 40% 12% 23%
Michael Cuddyer 31% 19% 35% 5% 8% 10% 6% 1%
Jason Giambi 9% 31% 35% 0% 0% 0% 10% 0%
Seth Smith 13% 13% 28% 0% 14% 1% 2% 1%
Kevin Kouzmanoff 19% 1% 25% 17% 1% 12% 1% 0%
Dexter Fowler 4% 19% 1% 9% 80% 0% 0% 5%
Ramon Hernandez 26% 14% 9% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Todd Helton 11% 26% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Josh Fields 12% 5% 10% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Jorge Cantu 12% 1% 4% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Eric Young 5% 9% 0% 0% 36% 0% 0% 89%
Charlie Blackmon 12% 1% 3% 0% 7% 0% 0% 9%
Nolan Arenado 8% 1% 12% 14% 3% 12% 2% 0%
Brad Emaus 5% 4% 3% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1%
Matt McBride 5% 0% 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Andrew Brown 2% 2% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0%
D.J. LeMahieu 53% 3% 0% 2% 11% 0% 0% 3%
Tyler Colvin 1% 0% 13% 0% 51% 3% 0% 0%
Cole Garner 4% 1% 5% 0% 11% 0% 1% 0%
Chris Nelson 6% 0% 4% 0% 3% 0% 0% 1%
Bronson Sardinha 4% 5% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Wilin Rosario 2% 0% 9% 0% 6% 5% 0% 0%
Eliezer Alfonzo 8% 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Ryan Spilborghs 3% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Tim Wheeler 1% 1% 3% 0% 16% 3% 1% 5%
Jamie Hoffmann 2% 0% 0% 1% 5% 0% 0% 1%
Ryan Rohlinger 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Jordan Pacheco 5% 1% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Joe Mather 2% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Thomas Field 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1%
Willy Taveras 3% 0% 1% 0% 4% 0% 0% 3%
Matt Macri 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Wilkin Castillo 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jonathan Herrera 4% 2% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Hector Gomez 1% 0% 3% 0% 6% 1% 0% 1%
Wil Nieves 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1
Rafael Betancourt 77% 94% 99% 70% 62%
Matt Belisle 47% 90% 21% 54% 77%
Jhoulys Chacin 38% 91% 36% 0% 83%
Rex Brothers 43% 86% 97% 0% 72%
Matt Reynolds 26% 76% 60% 5% 53%
Jorge de la Rosa 17% 76% 57% 0% 61%
Matt Lindstrom 14% 66% 5% 13% 72%
Jason Hammel 4% 56% 1% 4% 49%
Drew Pomeranz 5% 50% 15% 0% 75%
Juan Nicasio 3% 45% 2% 23% 41%
Edgmer Escalona 6% 44% 24% 2% 12%
Josh Roenicke 5% 43% 9% 0% 55%
Chad Bettis 2% 41% 9% 2% 56%
Kevin Slowey 2% 31% 1% 95% 19%
Sean White 5% 31% 1% 1% 66%
Kevin Millwood 2% 22% 1% 4% 16%
Edwar Cabrera 1% 24% 25% 0% 22%
Jesus Colome 17% 37% 10% 23% 51%
Aaron Cook 1% 21% 0% 3% 54%
Alex White 1% 19% 2% 0% 12%
Esmil Rogers 0% 14% 1% 0% 48%
Joe Torres 4% 22% 20% 0% 50%
John Maine 2% 16% 5% 0% 39%
Billy Buckner 0% 8% 0% 0% 37%
Greg Reynolds 0% 11% 0% 23% 39%
Tyler Chatwood 0% 3% 0% 0% 43%
Rob Scahill 0% 4% 0% 0% 60%
Clayton Mortenson 0% 1% 0% 0% 5%
Josh Muecke 0% 2% 0% 0% 17%
Christian Friedrich 0% 1% 0% 0% 15%
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
Braves
Astros
Cardinals
Dodgers
Twins
Giants
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 27, 2011 at 08:39 PM |
24 comment(s)
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1. Dan SzymborskiJust a quick glance at FanGraphs defense, he had 2 good years defensively, and a bad 2011, was it THAT bad that it warrants a drop to FR?
Also... Are Tulo's/Cargo's Best years passed them already?
I don't know if this is easily check-able, or not, but is Giambi's projection (112 OPS+) one of the best ZiPS projections (non-Bonds division) for a 41+ year old hitter? Seems kind of incredible to me.
Since the Angels are already out, can we get Chris Iannetta's sim? Thank for all the hard work.
Also you weren't kidding when you said they've got some holes. Wow. Hernandez, Giambi/Helton, Emaus, Kouzmanoff. Ugh. Fowler at least looks like he'll be fun.
Hernandez is fine, offensively (Defensive rating is missing).... Young's speed and defense probably make him an average 2b in the end. the others, I pretty much agree with, though not a Fowler fan. They should go after Rizzo
Wonder what a 9.42 ERA in Colorado Springs translates to?
I guess his projection isn't bad for a catcher but he's also 36. He could collapse any day. Like tonight.
Or does ZiPS now (rightly!) incorporate the "Oakland Effect" whereby every hitter becomes immediately depressed upon arrival and it takes them 6 months after leaving to recover?
I also think each year I comment on how this is not quite the case. However, O'Dowd appears to have gone back to not having a plan, so I withdraw all objections.
Wow, they are going to have a crappy bench again. Not to mention holes at 2nd and 3rd if they don't make a trade.
It's better than last season's.
(And the MLE doesn't exactly *help* him in the absolute sense - you had him (trans. to OAK) as a .258/.287/.438.)
Yeah, but that's enough for a 97 in Oakland.
Change the park to Colorado (most of Kouzmanoff's offensive value was in HR, which is good in Denver but bad in Oakland) and the park change and league change move that to 288/315/513, or a 109.
In other words, ZiPS is on crack. :-)
I asked Dan earlier...Iannetta is: 223/348/390, OPS+ 103, 2.2 WAR
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