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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, November 10, 2011

2012 ZiPS Projections - Detroit Tigers

The Tigers aren’t really a 95-win team - there are a lot more players likely to have worse seasons than better in 2012 - but while the Tigers would have an issue repeating in the AL East,

there aren’t any teams in the AL Central that are all that scary.  The team’s top-heavy and has some depth issues that need to be taken care of prior to the season as they can’t simply

enter another season with Brandon Inge at 3rd and Ryan Raburn is a Plan B or C starter, not a Plan A one.

Another starter (bringing back Edwin Jackson?) would be incredibly useful.  The team *wants* to enter the season with a Verlander-Fister-Scherzer-Porcello-Turner, but I still think Jacob

Turner should start the season at AAA.  Porcello’s just not that dependable and it’s better to allow Turner to dominate the upper minors for a few months, something he hasn’t done yet, and

risk the difficult decision involving too many starters rather than too few.

Next Up: Chicago White Sox

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Miguel Cabrera    R    1B   29   .310 .406 .548 153 558  94 173  38   1  31  99  91  97   3   2  155
Victor Martinez   B    DH   33   .295 .354 .444 138 525  65 155  31   1  15  82  49  56   1   0  114
Brennan Boesch    L    LF   27   .269 .332 .438 133 484  65 130  27   2  17  63  42 102   8   3  106
Alex Avila        L    C    25   .254 .348 .420 130 414  47 105  23   2  14  56  60 116   2   1  106
Delmon Young      R    LF   26   .283 .317 .441 149 558  71 158  30   2  18  86  26  95   4   3  102
Jhonny Peralta    R    SS   30   .268 .320 .423 149 556  62 149  29   3  17  80  44 105   1   1   98
Wilson Betemit    B    3B   30   .252 .314 .412 102 337  37  85  20   2  10  46  31  97   3   1   94
Ryan Raburn       R    2B   31   .255 .308 .429 121 361  48  92  20   2  13  47  25  96   3   3   96
Austin Jackson    R    CF   25   .259 .321 .375 156 613  85 159  27  10   8  47  53 172  24   6   88
Andy Dirks        L    LF   26   .261 .305 .383 135 491  62 128  23   2  11  53  29  89  17   5   84
Carlos Guillen    B    2B   36   .252 .316 .387  66 238  27  60  12   1   6  30  22  44   2   2   88
Don Kelly         L    3B   32   .256 .302 .378 121 312  39  80  11   3   7  30  18  45   6   2   82
Ramon Santiago    B    2B   32   .258 .321 .364  98 264  30  68   9   2   5  26  21  45   1   1   85
Magglio Ordonez   R    RF   38   .262 .317 .363  87 325  36  85  12   0   7  38  27  44   1   1   83
Will Rhymes       L    2B   29   .263 .316 .330 140 533  64 140  20   5   2  34  41  64  14   8   75
Ryan Strieby      R    1B   26   .223 .296 .362 118 453  46 101  19   1  14  55  43 152   3   1   77
Brandon Inge      R    3B   35   .222 .296 .357 131 428  44  95  16   3  12  50  41 120   2   3   76
Jeff Salazar      L    CF   31   .216 .289 .325 108 348  46  75  10   2   8  36  35  85  14   2   66
Clete Thomas      L    CF   28   .215 .279 .337 104 344  36  74  14   2   8  38  29 118  15   3   66
Nick Castellanos  R    3B   20   .241 .282 .351 156 607  55 146  33   2  10  66  35 175   3   2   70
Scott Thorman     L    1B   30   .233 .274 .364 117 442  43 103  17   1  13  54  23  88   7   4   71
Danny Worth       R    3B   26   .231 .286 .328 119 402  42  93  17   2   6  32  29 100  10   4   65
Jamie Johnson     L    CF   25   .230 .315 .303 133 521  66 120  22   5   2  33  62 109   9   9   68
Maxim St. Pierre  R    C    32   .230 .270 .329  75 243  20  56   9   0   5  25  12  40   1   1   61
Bryan Pounds      R    3B   26   .223 .291 .311 119 444  43  99  20   2   5  45  37 136   2   4   63
Clay Timpner      L    LF   29   .235 .280 .304  77 260  26  61  10   1   2  26  16  43   4   2   58
Audy Ciriaco      R    SS   25   .234 .255 .338 123 474  49 111  18   5   7  46  11 103   8   5   58
Omir Santos       R    C    31   .231 .259 .298  69 208  16  48   8   0   2  21   6  40   0   0   50
Argenis Diaz      R    SS   25   .235 .287 .279 123 426  40 100  15   2   0  29  30  93   4   5   54
Cale Iorg         R    SS   26   .198 .233 .292 135 510  47 101  20   2   8  32  19 174  12   8   41

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Miguel Cabrera               FR/112
Victor Martinez          FR  AV/102
Brennan Boesch                                               AV/119          AV/137
Alex Avila               AV  FR/119          PO/119
Delmon Young                                                 FR/120
Jhonny Peralta               AV/118           FR/75   AV/60
Wilson Betemit                AV/99  PO/118  FR/117   PO/94  AV/117
Ryan Raburn                  AV/109  FR/129  PO/117          AV/160  FR/102  FR/143
Austin Jackson                                               VG/104   VG/85   VG/97
Andy Dirks                                                    VG/60  AV/138  AV/111
Carlos Guillen               FR/116   FR/99                  FR/116
Don Kelly                    AV/105  FR/117  AV/100  PO/119   AV/80   AV/83  AV/104
Ramon Santiago                        AV/80  AV/118   AV/76
Magglio Ordonez                                                               FR/89
Will Rhymes                           AV/68  FR/106   PO/99  FR/106  FR/116  FR/119
Ryan Strieby                  AV/97                          FR/126
Brandon Inge                                  AV/74
Jeff Salazar                                                  AV/97  AV/102   AV/80
Clete Thomas                                                 AV/111  AV/120   AV/81
Nick Castellanos                             FR/138
Scott Thorman                 AV/86           FR/99          FR/125          FR/134
Danny Worth                          VG/111   VG/92   PO/88
Jamie Johnson                                                VG/112   AV/95
Maxim St. Pierre         VG
Bryan Pounds                 AV/117          AV/111          FR/128
Clay Timpner                 AV/109                           AV/89  AV/118  AV/118
Audy Ciriaco                                 AV/110  AV/135
Omir Santos              FR
Argenis Diaz                         VG/109   VG/98  AV/114
Cale Iorg                            AV/115  VG/117  AV/128  FR/118

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Justin Verlander  R      29     2.96    19    8   32   32   225.3  185   74   19   59  231   144
Doug Fister       R      28     3.98    12    9   31   28   183.3  196   81   16   32  105   107
Max Scherzer      R      27     4.07    12   10   31   31   185.7  182   84   23   61  172   105
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Rick Porcello     R      23     4.57    11   11   29   29   173.3  193   88   18   48  100    93
Jacob Turner      R      21     4.82     5    5   23   23   134.3  152   72   15   46   78    88
Drew Smyly        L      23     4.90     8    9   22   21   112.0  124   61   13   47   61    87
Adam Wilk         L      24     5.06     7    8   25   22   126.3  148   71   19   26   65    84
Brad Penny        R      34     5.14     7    8   21   21   122.7  144   70   16   40   60    83
Jay Voss          L      25     5.32     5    7   35   12    91.3  105   54   12   40   53    80
Casey Crosby      L      23     5.48     6    9   24   24   108.3  117   66   12   79   73    78
Duane Below       L      26     5.56     5    8   24   19   102.0  118   63   16   44   57    77
Brayan Villarreal R      25     5.66     4    7   28   15    90.7  103   57   14   47   59    75
Andrew Oliver     L      24     5.69     8   12   27   27   140.7  161   89   20   80   96    75
Thad Weber        R      27     6.36     6   12   25   25   138.7  182   98   26   48   65    67

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Joaquin Benoit    R      34     3.33     4    2   60    0    54.0   46   20    6   16   58   128
Jose Valverde     R      34     3.55     3    2   61    0    58.3   49   23    5   29   56   120
Al Alburquerque   R      26     3.83     4    3   42    0    47.0   40   20    4   29   53   111
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Phil Coke         L      29     4.10     6    5   59    7    83.3   85   38    6   32   60   104
Joel Zumaya       R      27     4.23     1    1   23    0    27.7   27   13    3   12   23   101
Daniel Schlereth  L      26     4.26     3    2   54    0    57.0   51   27    5   38   53   100
Ryan Perry        R      25     4.26     3    2   60    0    69.7   68   33    6   32   53   100
Bobby Korecky     R      32     4.29     3    3   39    0    42.0   43   20    4   15   28    99
Luis Marte        R      25     4.50     2    2   35    1    54.0   53   27    6   30   45    95
David Pauley      R      29     4.58     4    4   61    0    72.7   78   37    8   25   40    93
Brad Thomas       L      34     4.82     2    2   29    0    37.3   42   20    4   17   20    88
Brendan Wise      R      26     4.95     4    4   47    0    63.7   76   35    5   28   26    86
Robbie Weinhardt  R      26     4.96     3    3   46    0    61.7   69   34    6   27   39    86
David Purcey      L      30     4.96     2    2   43    0    45.3   46   25    5   29   34    86
Matt Hoffman      L      23     5.12     3    3   49    0    58.0   67   33    6   26   31    83
Fu-Te Ni          L      29     5.20     2    3   39    5    71.0   81   41    9   30   45    82
Jared Gayhart     R      25     5.23     4    5   41    2    65.3   71   38    8   37   41    81
Lester Oliveros   R      24     5.25     2    3   51    0    58.3   62   34    8   34   46    81
Jose Ortega       R      23     5.95     2    3   39    0    56.0   67   37    7   33   33    72
Enrique Gonzalez  R      29     6.24     4    8   35   10    79.3  100   55   13   38   46    68

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Miguel Cabrera       .302  .382  .518  2858 10692  1642  3229   691    23   523  1836  1372  1830    57   138
Magglio Ordonez      .306  .365  .494  1967  7425  1125  2273   443    21   303  1288   687   911    95   123
Jhonny Peralta       .264  .319  .411  2202  8229   981  2169   421    36   239  1115   673  1597    12    95
Victor Martinez      .296  .357  .449  1832  6900   880  2043   418     4   210  1121   667   776    10   115
Delmon Young         .280  .315  .425  1823  6873   844  1924   375    23   192  1008   322  1179    63    97
Austin Jackson       .256  .319  .369  1692  6665   932  1708   304    91    89   501   583  1796   211    86
Carlos Guillen       .280  .348  .433  1502  5391   808  1508   301    54   139   744   567   924    78   107
Alex Avila           .248  .345  .409  1883  5923   652  1467   321    31   190   781   883  1541    40   103
Brandon Inge         .233  .303  .383  1618  5324   597  1241   238    43   158   670   482  1377    49    82
Brennan Boesch       .262  .326  .423  1269  4589   596  1201   251    20   149   572   396   901    66   101
Wilson Betemit       .257  .320  .422  1264  3620   419   931   216    20   114   484   340   990    22    97

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Justin Verlander      270  145    0    3.40  502  502     3405 2955 1285  324  985 3293    127
Rick Porcello         175  160    0    4.47  433  433     2583 2798 1282  285  701 1540     95
Max Scherzer          150  134    0    4.17  409  400     2396 2364 1110  312  812 2227    102
Brad Penny            138  126    0    4.42  386  381     2254 2415 1108  241  727 1433     97
Doug Fister           127  119    0    3.98  358  335     2165 2294  958  209  398 1240    106

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Miguel Cabrera    1B     83%  13%   3%   1%   0%      Manny Ramirez       Jason Giambi       Jeff Bagwell
Victor Martinez   DH      5%  27%  31%  31%   6%        David Segui     Dale Alexander       Kevin Millar
Brennan Boesch    LF      6%  22%  36%  23%  14%           Mike Lum         Chad Tracy         Derrek Lee
Alex Avila        C      22%  52%  20%   6%   1%       Geovany Soto      Jerry Willard     Chris Iannetta
Delmon Young      LF      1%  11%  16%  44%  30%         Mark Quinn      Luis Montanez        Wil Cordero
Jhonny Peralta    SS     12%  35%  32%  20%   2%      Charlie Hayes       Mike Shannon     Steve Buechele
Wilson Betemit    3B      2%  12%  26%  33%  28%       Mike Blowers      Tony Phillips       Jim Lefebvre
Ryan Raburn       2B     10%  17%  26%  30%  18%       Mike Blowers      Ray Jablonski          Jeff Kent
Austin Jackson    CF      4%   7%  34%  42%  15%      Roberto Kelly        Marlon Byrd    Marquis Grissom
Andy Dirks        LF      1%   1%   3%  13%  83%       Cameron Drew    Alan Cartwright       Ricky Nelson
Carlos Guillen    2B      6%   9%   9%  24%  53%      Marty McManus         Ray Durham       Mike Bordick
Don Kelly         3B      2%   3%   6%  18%  72%        Eddie Zosky          Alex Cora         Gene Alley
Ramon Santiago    2B      2%   5%  10%  16%  68%     Nelson Liriano      Andy Phillips     Casey Candaele
Magglio Ordonez   RF      0%   2%   3%  12%  84%       Rich Aurilia        Ken Griffey        Russ Morman
Will Rhymes       2B      0%   0%   7%  11%  83%      Jamey Carroll         Jose Uribe       Doug Griffin
Ryan Strieby      1B      0%   0%   0%   5%  95%      James Jurries          Pat Adams       Josh Bonifay
Brandon Inge      3B      0%   2%   6%  12%  82%       Shane Halter         Jason Wood         Jed Hansen
Jeff Salazar      CF      0%   2%   1%  15%  82%    Kevin Koslofski       Marc Sagmoen        Nate Murphy
Clete Thomas      CF      1%   0%   3%  13%  84%      Damon Mashore        Juan Camilo    Kevin Koslofski
Nick Castellanos  3B      1%   0%   2%   4%  95%       Brook Jacoby         Stan Royer     George Hinshaw
Scott Thorman     1B      0%   0%   1%   3%  97%         Jay Gainer          Mike Bell     Mike Robertson
Danny Worth       3B      0%   1%   1%   3%  96%          Bert Pena        Mendy Lopez        Woody Woods
Jamie Johnson     CF      0%   0%   1%   3%  97%        Troy Thomas       Jeff Salazar        Drew Macias
Maxim St. Pierre  C       0%   0%   1%   6%  93%     Charlie Greene       Chad Moeller        Chris Ashby
Bryan Pounds      3B      0%   0%   0%   2%  99%     Adam Morrissey     John Hotchkiss         Chad Spann
Clay Timpner      LF      0%   0%   0%   0% 100%         Brian Keck         Tim Leiper   Jason Fitzgerald
Audy Ciriaco      SS      1%   2%   1%   3%  94%    Hector Tiburcio     Santiago Henry       Jason Bowers
Omir Santos       C       0%   1%   1%   1%  98%     Charlie Greene       Pedro Grifol       Chad Moeller
Argenis Diaz      SS      0%   0%   0%   0% 100%         Benny Ruiz        Rod Correia    Oswaldo Navarro
Cale Iorg         SS      1%   1%   0%   1%  99%     Jason Dellaero        Neil Walton        Tim Holland

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Justin Verlander  SP      91%     4%     5%        John Smoltz      Roger Clemens     Pedro Martinez
Joaquin Benoit    RP      57%    35%     8%     Trevor Hoffman          Tom Henke     John Wetteland
Jose Valverde     RP      45%    41%    14%     Jason Kershner        Jeff Nelson      Curt Leskanic
Al Alburquerque   RP      36%    47%    17%       Mark Littell       Brian Bruney       Steve Sharts
Doug Fister       SP      51%    44%     5%        Josh Towers         Donne Wall    Bill Gullickson
Max Scherzer      SP      38%    55%     6%          Ian Snell        Brett Myers         Andy Benes
Phil Coke         RP      14%    56%    29%        Dave Rucker        Alan Newman        Mike Mohler
Joel Zumaya       RP      28%    34%    38%      Steve Andrade    Derrick Turnbow       Jason Bulger
Daniel Schlereth  RP      13%    48%    39%    Armando Almanza      Darren Oliver        Ron Villone
Ryan Perry        RP      16%    51%    33%          Lee Smith     Alejandro Pena       Brian Bowles
Bobby Korecky     RP      14%    40%    46%     Kirk BullingerBrandon Villafuerte        Bryan Corey
Luis Marte        RP      10%    37%    54%        Brad Voyles        Kevin Barry         Bob Gibson
Rick Porcello     SP      11%    62%    27%        Joe Johnson        Jimmy Jones         Chris Holt
David Pauley      RP       8%    44%    49%      Steve Schmoll      Jason Karnuth     Luther Hackman
Brad Thomas       RP      11%    26%    63%       Mike Venafro   Marshall Bridges     C.J. Nitkowski
Jacob Turner      SP       5%    51%    44%          Josh Fogg       Sergio Mitre    George Stablein
Drew Smyly        SP       6%    45%    49%         Tom McGraw       John Daniels      Danny Borrell
Brendan Wise      RP       3%    24%    73%       Scott Munter      Rosman Garcia        Jack Cassel
Robbie Weinhardt  RP       3%    28%    68%       Mike Gardner    Fernando Rodney         Shawn Hill
David Purcey      RP       5%    25%    70%      Mike Kinnunen        Kevin Tolar      Arnold Earley
Adam Wilk         SP       5%    40%    55%         Randy Leek        Steve Comer       Dave Gassner
Matt Hoffman      RP       3%    27%    71%         Danny Zell    Anthony Ferrari       Tim Hamulack
Brad Penny        SP       4%    30%    66%        Pat Ahearne       Walt Terrell         Aaron Sele
Fu-Te Ni          RP       1%    19%    80%       Matt Perisho         Joe Beimel    Sherman Corbett
Jared Gayhart     RP       1%    18%    81%      David Aardsma         Blake Mayo Heathcliff Slocumb
Lester Oliveros   RP       2%    22%    77%     Chris Schroder          Ken Giard     Jeff Heathcock
Jay Voss          SP       0%    13%    87%      Ben Kozlowski      Oscar Alvarez       Don Florence
Casey Crosby      SP       1%    19%    80%        Jordan Pals       Juan Ovalles         Neal Cotts
Duane Below       SP       1%    14%    85%        Josh Muecke          Dan Smith         Rich Pratt
Brayan Villarreal SP       1%    13%    86%      Chris Reinike       Bob Owchinko      Derek Brandow
Andrew Oliver     SP       0%    10%    90%       Greg Cadaret       Matt Perisho        Phil Norton
Jose Ortega       RP       0%     8%    92%         John Lujan         Sean Green      Elvis Polanco
Enrique Gonzalez  RP       0%     2%    98%      Rosman Garcia      Wes Wilkerson        Mike Meyers
Thad Weber        SP       0%     1%    99%     Kyle Middleton    Greg Biercevicz       Brad Ziegler

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Miguel Cabrera          71%      88%      82%      15%       0%      59%      79%       0%
Victor Martinez         38%      13%       7%       2%       0%       1%       3%       0%
Brennan Boesch           2%       2%       6%       0%       1%       2%       2%       2%
Alex Avila               1%       8%       3%       0%       0%       1%       2%       0%
Delmon Young             6%       0%       4%       1%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Jhonny Peralta           3%       0%       2%       1%       0%       2%       0%       0%
Wilson Betemit           1%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Ryan Raburn              0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Austin Jackson           3%       1%       1%       1%      58%       0%       0%      23%
Andy Dirks               1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       5%
Carlos Guillen           1%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Don Kelly                1%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Ramon Santiago           1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Magglio Ordonez          1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Will Rhymes              1%       1%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       2%
Ryan Strieby             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brandon Inge             0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Jeff Salazar             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Clete Thomas             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       2%
Nick Castellanos         0%       0%       1%       2%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Scott Thorman            0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       1%
Danny Worth              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Jamie Johnson            0%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Maxim St. Pierre         0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Bryan Pounds             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Clay Timpner             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Audy Ciriaco             0%       0%       1%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Omir Santos              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Argenis Diaz             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Cale Iorg                0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       1%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Justin Verlander          76%        94%        89%        23%        85%
Joaquin Benoit            48%        89%        91%        19%        61%
Jose Valverde             37%        81%        72%         0%        69%
Al Alburquerque           36%        77%        92%         0%        83%
Doug Fister               16%        76%         0%        89%        79%
Max Scherzer               8%        70%        63%         2%        44%
Phil Coke                 11%        59%         5%         2%        87%
Joel Zumaya               28%        62%        26%         5%        71%
Daniel Schlereth           9%        54%        58%         0%        69%
Ryan Perry                12%        60%         9%         0%        82%
Bobby Korecky             14%        45%         4%         6%        72%
Luis Marte                 6%        39%        25%         0%        65%
Rick Porcello              1%        33%         0%        16%        67%
David Pauley               6%        39%         0%         5%        64%
Brad Thomas                7%        30%         1%         2%        71%
Jacob Turner               0%        22%         0%         1%        59%
Drew Smyly                 0%        19%         0%         0%        51%
Brendan Wise               2%        21%         0%         1%        88%
Robbie Weinhardt           2%        25%         0%         0%        76%
David Purcey               3%        23%        13%         0%        62%
Adam Wilk                  1%        15%         0%        69%        21%
Matt Hoffman               2%        18%         0%         0%        60%
Brad Penny                 1%        13%         0%         6%        39%
Fu-Te Ni                   0%        12%         0%         0%        42%
Jared Gayhart              1%        15%         0%         0%        52%
Lester Oliveros            1%        14%        17%         0%        51%
Jay Voss                   0%         8%         0%         0%        38%
Casey Crosby               0%         4%         1%         0%        60%
Duane Below                0%         3%         0%         0%        15%
Brayan Villarreal          0%         4%         0%         0%        22%
Andrew Oliver              0%         2%         2%         0%        26%
Jose Ortega                0%         4%         0%         0%        42%
Enrique Gonzalez           0%         1%         1%         0%        18%
Thad Weber                 0%         0%         0%         1%         3%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 10, 2011 at 07:23 PM | 33 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. danielj Posted: November 10, 2011 at 07:30 PM (#3990394)
Those are some mighty comps for Verlander.
   2. Non-Youkilidian Geometry Posted: November 10, 2011 at 07:41 PM (#3990411)
Cabrera's comps aren't to shabby either.
   3. Davo Dozier Posted: November 10, 2011 at 07:51 PM (#3990424)
This is going to be an exciting offseason for the AL Central.
   4. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 10, 2011 at 08:03 PM (#3990440)
Wouldn't be too bad of an off-season: Tigers sign Kelly Johnson to man 2nd base. Paul Maholm to fill in the back-end of the pitching staff. I don't know if the Tigers are willing to move Peralta to third base or not (his batting cratered when he moved there with the Indians), but there are more options at SS than 3B.
   5. Spivey Posted: November 10, 2011 at 08:10 PM (#3990448)
Miguel Cabrera is so good.

I didn't realize Raburn was on the wrong side of 30.
   6. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 10, 2011 at 08:30 PM (#3990469)
Betemit projects to 94?
his career is 105
and he's at 128 the last 2 years and 114 over the past 4.
Don't get me wrong, I think Betemit is completely capable of coughing up a 94 (or worse) but mathematically you'd think his median projection would be quite a bit higher
   7. Nasty Nate Posted: November 10, 2011 at 08:55 PM (#3990504)
Al Alburquerque R 26 3.83 4 3 42 0 47.0 40 20 4 29 53 111


Who is this? Oh, did you mean Alberto José Alburquerque?
   8. DL from MN Posted: November 10, 2011 at 09:45 PM (#3990575)
Are they moving Delmon Young to RF?
   9. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: November 10, 2011 at 10:36 PM (#3990630)
I would guess Delmon comes back and starts in LF. Boesch in RF. Raburn and Dirks to back them up. That might be OK, but it underlines the real need to upgrade offensively at 2B and 3B or SS. Peralta and Avila probably won't put as many runs on the board as they did this year, but that can be offset easily by improving at positions where Detroit got replacement-level production in 2011.

Pitching is a similar story, as Verlander can't be as otherworldly as he was this season. A full year of Fister will help, but I agree with Dan that we desperately need another starter or two to get back to the playoffs and have any shot at advancing in them. But the team gets weird blind spots with pitching- last year they preceded from the ironclad belief that Phil Coke was gonna be a fine #4 starter, dammit. We know how that went.

Jackson is an interesting idea, wonder how much of his great success as a Tiger had to do with the since-canned Rick Knapp.

The Tigers can have another great season in 2011, provided they fill in the obvious holes.
   10. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 10, 2011 at 10:46 PM (#3990639)
Jacob Turner could become the next Josh Fogg!
   11. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 10, 2011 at 10:50 PM (#3990642)
Steve Sharts


Boy, that's an unfortunate name.
   12. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: November 10, 2011 at 11:41 PM (#3990685)
WTH is Porcello so much worse than he was supposed to be?
   13. Greg K Posted: November 11, 2011 at 12:03 AM (#3990699)
WTH is Porcello so much worse than he was supposed to be?

Was he ever supposed to be that good? He's never seemed to strike out anyone at any level.
   14. Austin Posted: November 11, 2011 at 12:21 AM (#3990721)
That projection for Ordonez is horrifying.

Also, I knew that people like to say that Cale Iorg can't hit, but I had never actually looked up his statistics before. And man, he really can't hit. That's still a heck of a projection, though - a .233 OBP!
   15. Greg K Posted: November 11, 2011 at 12:31 AM (#3990729)
I don't know if the Tigers are willing to move Peralta to third base or not (his batting cratered when he moved there with the Indians), but there are more options at SS than 3B.

How is Peralta at SS? Asdrubal pushed him off the position in Cleveland, but since that time Peralta's BB-Ref fielding numbers blow Cabrera's out of the water. I always thought of him as a bat-first SS, but his defensive numbers look quite good.
   16. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: November 11, 2011 at 12:31 AM (#3990730)
Was he ever supposed to be that good? He's never seemed to strike out anyone at any level.


Porcello was once the top pitching prospect in the game, or near to it. The lack of strikeouts in the minors was supposedly due to the Tigers' decision to make him work on his offspeed stuff by having him pitch to contact. The notion was that, once that period was finished, the strikeouts would come.

Instead, we have the stats of Tim Wakefield.
   17. Run Joe Run Posted: November 11, 2011 at 12:46 AM (#3990749)
And with Dombrowski, you really never know what he will do. A few years ago he shipped off two top prospects in miller and maybin to get Cabrera. That was a gutsy move at the time. Who knows?
   18. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: November 11, 2011 at 01:28 AM (#3990785)
Hey, Scott Thorman still kind of hanging in there!

I always remember when the Braves decided to patch their bullpen by trading their starting 1B (coming of an age 26 season with 32 HR and a 130 OPS+) away because they were covered with Scott Thorman ready to step in. It, ah, didn't really work out too well. They ended up paying a king's ransom to acquire 157 games out of the middle of Mart Teixiera's career the next season.
   19. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: November 11, 2011 at 01:49 AM (#3990795)
"Peralta's BB-Ref fielding numbers blow Cabrera's out of the water. I always thought of him as a bat-first SS, but his defensive numbers look quite good."

Just from watching him, he seems pretty solid, won't make too many mistakes, seems good at turning the DP, a bit more range than you'd think (but not much).

Porcello got rushed, but also might have been overrated as a prospect because of how polished he was. I don't think he's noticeably better than he was 3 years ago.

Occasionally, like in one of his playoff starts, he'll surprise you and K a bunch of guys, but he just doesn't have enough of an out pitch to be very good, especially against lefties.
   20. Good cripple hitter Posted: November 11, 2011 at 01:49 AM (#3990796)
Also, I knew that people like to say that Cale Iorg can't hit, but I had never actually looked up his statistics before. And man, he really can't hit. That's still a heck of a projection, though - a .233 OBP!


If the Tigers signed Rance Mullinicks' son, Cale's stats would probably dramatically improve.
   21. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 11, 2011 at 02:36 AM (#3990826)
The Tigers can have another great season in 2011, provided they fill in the obvious holes.

How much do you charge for a ride in your time machine?
   22. John DiFool2 Posted: November 11, 2011 at 03:01 AM (#3990858)
Is Bonderman planning a comeback? With another team perhaps?
   23. Poster Nutbag Posted: November 11, 2011 at 03:47 AM (#3990889)
Mark it down....Fister has a better year (then above) and is a Top 5 AL SP come years end.
   24. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: November 11, 2011 at 04:55 AM (#3990932)
Also, I knew that people like to say that Cale Iorg can't hit, but I had never actually looked up his statistics before. And man, he really can't hit. That's still a heck of a projection, though - a .233 OBP!


Duly noted, and nominated for the Jeff Mathis Futility Award.
   25. Run Joe Run Posted: November 11, 2011 at 03:51 PM (#3991105)
Is Bonderman planning a comeback? With another team perhaps?


I hope the Tigers take a flyer on him, but I don't believe he pitched at all in 2011. Always liked him
   26. chemdoc Posted: November 11, 2011 at 04:03 PM (#3991110)
Wouldn't be too bad of an off-season: Tigers sign Kelly Johnson to man 2nd base. Paul Maholm to fill in the back-end of the pitching staff. I don't know if the Tigers are willing to move Peralta to third base or not (his batting cratered when he moved there with the Indians), but there are more options at SS than 3B.


Perhaps the Tigers should see if Martin Prado is available and put him at 2B.
   27. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 11, 2011 at 04:33 PM (#3991132)
Porcello was once the top pitching prospect in the game, or near to it.


I think he was regarded as the best HS pitcher of his particular draft class, BA had him #21 overall twice...

The Ks have not come, but he doesn't walk guys and his HRs allowed are manageable

His BABIP has gone
.279
.308
.318

HIs K/BB has gone
1.71
2.21
2.26

HIS HR/9 has gone:
1.2
1.0
0.9

If you are going to go with DIPS theory you might say the following:
1: K/BB and HR/9 are more reflective of a pitcher's skill than BABIP -Porcello has been progressing, but his random BABIP fluctuation obscures that
2: Since he is a low K pitcher, BABIP fluctuations affect his ERA more than most pitchers.

If Porcello gave up a league average BABIP of .297 his opponent batting line would have been .271/.318/.414 rather than .292/.339/.435, and OPS+ against of 99 rather than 110
   28. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: November 12, 2011 at 06:03 PM (#3991840)
I don't see Cabrera's lifetime SLG. being as low a .518. He's at .555 and in his prime so even if he holds in that neighborhood for the next 5 yrs. he'd have to either play well past his prime or pull a Todd Helton.
He should end up in the .540 range.
   29. DCW3 Posted: November 12, 2011 at 06:27 PM (#3991865)
Betemit projects to 94?
his career is 105
and he's at 128 the last 2 years and 114 over the past 4.
Don't get me wrong, I think Betemit is completely capable of coughing up a 94 (or worse) but mathematically you'd think his median projection would be quite a bit higher


Betemit had almost 300 PAs at AAA in 2009 with an OBP under .300, and wasn't very good in the minors in 2010 either--I'm sure that factors into his projection.
   30. Honkie Kong Posted: November 13, 2011 at 09:50 AM (#3992440)
Perhaps the Tigers should see if Martin Prado is available and put him at 2B.


Tigers are due to win a trade with the Braves..

<Runs before the Tigers' faithful start pelting me with car spare parts >
   31. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 14, 2011 at 08:01 PM (#3993208)
I don't see Cabrera's lifetime SLG. being as low a .518. He's at .555 and in his prime so even if he holds in that neighborhood for the next 5 yrs. he'd have to either play well past his prime or pull a Todd Helton.
He should end up in the .540 range.


1: League slugging during Cabrera's career has been .424, last year in Comerica it was .410, I think ZiPS simply uses the last year's offensive context.

2: ZiPS sees him as going .485 over 5650 at bats to finish his career- that's equivalent to about .502 compared to Cabrera's career to date context (so .555 through 28, and .502 post 28). His bbref comps averaged .552 through 28, and .505 after (they also averaged 4977 at bats through age 28 and 3778 after)

So ZiPS drops him about 5 point sin slugging- but gives him 2 full extra decline years, the end result is quite reasonable.
   32. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 20, 2011 at 06:41 AM (#3997775)
Betemit projected at 104 last year, had a 117 - and now projects at 94. That is a little weird.
   33. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: November 28, 2011 at 08:08 PM (#4002386)
Joel Zumaya! MLB is a better place when he's throwing 100 mph, but "Guitar Hero" injuries are kind of cool, too.

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