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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, December 19, 2011

2012 ZiPS Projections - Houston Astros

At some point, to bash the Houston Astros simply becomes piling-on.  The 2011 Astros were not only a lousy team, but a team that applied lousiness consistently across all the various aspects of baseball, and needed 6 WAR from the departed Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn just to get up to 56 wins.  The long reckoning expected by observers for an organization that had a GM in Ed Wade that simultaneously ignored the major leagues, the minors leagues, and any kind of thrift, finally came to pass, with no late season mirage of adequacy to convince the team to double-down on failure.

The GM of this mess is gone.  The owner that owned this mess is gone.  And the scene of the crime, the NL Central, will be gone as well in another year (at least, as far as the AL West-bound Astros are concerned).  New GM Jeff Luhnow has a long, difficult task ahead of him and one that’s going to require a lot of patience from ownership and fans - the upper levels of the organization look a bit like the baseball equivalent of post-World War II Europe if we had gone in and just kept bombing the cities for a few more years just for the hell of it.

There’s one silver lining at least.  The farm system is no longer the worst in the majors and while there’s still a great deal more to do, the team does have a lot of good prospects down in the low levels.  Players at very low levels are obviously more speculative than AA and AAA prospects, so that strength doesn’t show up in 2012 projections.

Next Up: Atlanta Braves

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Carlos Lee        R    LF   36   .273 .323 .441 141 542  63 148  30   2  19  89  39  54   4   3  106
J.D. Martinez     R    LF   24   .281 .335 .414 153 584  77 164  35   2  13  85  44 126   3   1  104
Jose Altuve       R    2B   22   .292 .326 .403 156 640  80 187  27   7  10  66  32  89  33  21   98
Brett Wallace     L    1B   25   .258 .322 .403 147 516  61 133  28   1  15  60  40 135   1   1   97
Jed Lowrie        B    SS   28   .249 .316 .414  86 285  35  71  17   3   8  35  29  57   1   1   97
Matt Downs        R    2B   28   .255 .315 .413 116 341  48  87  22   1  10  49  25  67   5   4   97
Jason Bourgeois   R    CF   30   .273 .311 .351 126 388  50 106  13   4   3  30  20  46  28   8   81
Chris Johnson     R    3B   27   .255 .294 .403 136 499  56 127  27   4  13  64  24 131   3   1   88
Nick Stavinoha    R    1B   30   .248 .289 .411 130 443  47 110  23   2  15  63  23  91   3   1   89
Andrew Locke      R    RF   29   .240 .292 .380 135 471  52 113  27   3  11  63  32 104   5   2   82
Brian Bogusevic   L    RF   28   .233 .304 .348 138 443  57 103  22   4   7  45  42 119  16   3   78
Jimmy Paredes     B    3B   23   .254 .281 .376 156 638  80 162  32   8  10  59  23 155  35  15   78
Marwin Gonzalez   B    SS   23   .260 .300 .351 146 507  54 132  26   4   4  47  28  72   8   4   77
J.B. Shuck        L    LF   25   .259 .328 .326 150 549  71 142  18   8   1  33  55  73  15   9   80
Jacob Goebbert    L    RF   24   .249 .304 .358 136 514  55 128  30   4   6  62  36 105   6   5   80
Joe Inglett       L    2B   34   .244 .308 .333  68 156  18  38   7   2   1   9  13  31   3   1   75
James van Ostrand R    1B   27   .245 .300 .353 121 408  37 100  21   1   7  52  30  89   1   2   78
Jason Castro      L    C    25   .235 .309 .335 100 358  45  84  16   1   6  34  37  83   2   2   76
Angel Sanchez     R    SS   28   .252 .304 .324 122 401  48 101  17   3   2  40  29  67   4   2   72
Jordan Schafer    L    CF   25   .224 .291 .320 107 397  51  89  17   3   5  27  37 107  18   7   67
Collin DeLome     L    CF   26   .206 .258 .373 118 407  50  84  17   6  13  46  21 156  10   4   70
Koby Clemens      R    1B   25   .202 .277 .349 136 476  50  96  22   3  14  63  45 175   3   2   70
Jon Gaston        L    RF   25   .209 .267 .346 137 506  61 106  20   8  11  54  37 173  10   3   66
Anderson HernandezB    2B   29   .239 .291 .317 133 461  47 110  18   3   4  37  34  83  11   7   66
David Flores      R    3B   25   .228 .273 .339 123 448  46 102  21   1   9  49  22  96   2   2   66
Wladimir Sutil    R    SS   27   .249 .300 .294 119 422  53 105  16   0   1  25  27  55  16   8   63
Carlos Corporan   B    C    28   .220 .276 .335  78 254  25  56  13   2   4  28  16  70   1   1   66
Oswaldo Navarro   R    3B   27   .229 .297 .302 116 371  43  85  16   1   3  32  33  84   3   3   64
Jonathan Villar   B    SS   21   .212 .273 .328 156 609  74 129  24   7  11  56  46 228  33  17   63
Humberto Quintero R    C    32   .236 .264 .323  82 254  25  60  11   1   3  23   7  56   0   0   59
Brandon Barnes    R    CF   26   .207 .258 .349 142 527  55 109  26   5  13  52  33 183   7   5   64
Robinson Cancel   R    C    36   .228 .277 .300  78 263  21  60  11   1   2  24  17  53   6   2   58
Jiovanni Mier     R    SS   21   .218 .293 .301 148 578  73 126  26   2   6  59  58 170  11   8   63
Craig Tatum       R    C    29   .218 .276 .302  66 202  18  44   9   1   2  22  16  48   1   1   58
Jose Vallejo      B    2B   25   .215 .260 .285  98 316  30  68   9   2   3  25  19  83   7   2   49

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Carlos Lee                   FR/117                           FR/94
J.D. Martinez                                                AV/146          AV/146
Jose Altuve                          AV/138
Brett Wallace                AV/119          FR/117
Jed Lowrie                   AV/117  AV/105  AV/100  FR/108
Matt Downs                           AV/133  FR/134  FR/126  AV/111          AV/126
Jason Bourgeois                      PO/119                  VG/131  AV/221  AV/110
Chris Johnson                                AV/150
Nick Stavinoha               AV/131                           FR/92          FR/115
Andrew Locke                 AV/158                          AV/116          AV/181
Brian Bogusevic              AV/123                          AV/111   FR/45  AV/106
Jimmy Paredes                        AV/234  AV/130  FR/139
Marwin Gonzalez              AV/108  AV/139  AV/124  FR/207   AV/96  FR/158
J.B. Shuck                                                   VG/114  FR/126  VG/113
Jacob Goebbert                                               AV/162          FR/162
Joe Inglett                          AV/148  AV/122  FR/121  AV/127          AV/141
James van Ostrand            AV/168                          FR/116          FR/107
Jason Castro             VG
Angel Sanchez                        AV/101          FR/111
Jordan Schafer                                               VG/107   AV/54  VG/112
Collin DeLome                                                VG/177  FR/119  AV/113
Koby Clemens             FR  FR/131          FR/186          FR/106
Jon Gaston                                                   AV/128  FR/112  AV/128
Anderson Hernandez                   AV/114  AV/118  FR/117
David Flores                 AV/120          AV/160
Wladimir Sutil                       VG/131  VG/115  AV/138  AV/114
Carlos Corporan          AV
Oswaldo Navarro                      AV/143  AV/109  AV/119
Jonathan Villar                                      VG/252
Humberto Quintero        VG
Brandon Barnes                                               VG/139  AV/172  AV/162
Robinson Cancel          VG
Jiovanni Mier                                        VG/179
Craig Tatum              VG
Jose Vallejo                         AV/162  AV/118

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Wandy Rodriguez   L      33     3.89    11   10   29   29   180.3  174   78   21   61  156   100
Bud Norris        R      27     3.93     8    8   30   30   181.0  170   79   22   67  173    99
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Brett Myers       R      31     4.26     8    9   28   26   169.0  171   80   22   48  128    92
J.A. Happ         L      29     4.64     7    9   27   24   139.7  138   72   18   69  113    84
Jordan Lyles      R      21     4.78     7   10   29   25   150.7  169   80   17   45  105    82
Brett Oberholtzer L      22     4.90     8   12   26   25   136.0  156   74   15   47   90    80
Dallas Keuchel    L      24     5.01     7   11   26   26   152.7  180   85   17   45   80    78
Lucas Harrell     R      27     5.05     7   11   28   24   132.0  147   74   12   67   77    77
Andy Van Hekken   L      32     5.12     5    9   30   18   123.0  149   70   12   43   74    76
Kyle Weiland      R      25     5.27     6   11   27   26   124.7  137   73   16   67   90    74
Jarred Cosart     R      22     5.32     6   11   22   22   106.7  118   63   13   55   69    73
Paul Clemens      R      24     5.38     4    7   28   18   110.3  124   66   15   58   81    73
Henry Sosa        R      26     5.48     5   10   31   16   106.7  122   65   15   50   71    71
Ryan Rowland-SmithL      29     5.97     4   10   25   22   119.0  148   79   22   40   71    65
Sergio Perez      R      27     6.12     4   10   22   21   107.3  136   73   15   53   56    64
Ross Seaton       R      22     6.40     4   11   27   27   136.3  179   97   21   54   67    61

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Wilton Lopez      R      28     3.67     4    3   71    0    68.7   68   28    7   15   53   106
Fernando RodriguezR      28     3.93     5    5   62    0    75.7   66   33    9   41   88    99
Wesley Wright     L      27     4.04     3    4   66    0    64.7   60   29    7   30   59    97
Juan Abreu        R      27     4.10     3    4   56    0    63.7   55   29    8   39   77    95
Brandon Lyon      R      32     4.13     4    5   46    0    48.0   47   22    5   18   34    95
Samuel Gervacio   R      27     4.40     2    2   39    0    43.0   40   21    6   19   40    89
Sergio Escalona   L      27     4.42     3    4   60    0    53.0   52   26    6   24   45    88
Enerio Del RosarioR      26     4.59     2    3   58    0    66.7   72   34    6   25   37    85
David Carpenter   R      26     4.72     3    4   62    0    61.0   63   32    7   31   53    83
Fernando Abad     L      26     4.76     4    6   49    2    64.3   70   34   10   16   50    82
Aneury Rodriguez  R      24     4.80     4    5   37   12    95.7   96   51   12   43   72    81
Jorge De Leon     R      24     4.95     3    5   38    0    43.7   48   24    5   18   29    79
Arcenio Leon      R      25     5.61     2    4   47    0    67.3   73   42    6   52   54    70
Henry Villar      R      25     5.71     3    6   41    7    82.0   96   52   13   36   51    68
Rhiner Cruz       R      25     6.18     2    5   49    0    62.7   65   43    9   59   48    63

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Carlos Lee           .282  .333  .476  2429  9283  1269  2616   539    25   405  1568   709  1104   134   111
Chris Johnson        .257  .295  .402  1152  4175   451  1074   231    27   107   528   196   995    26    89
Brett Wallace        .253  .317  .392  1185  4064   466  1027   210     8   114   463   308  1020     9    93
Jed Lowrie           .248  .310  .397  1023  3366   396   834   200    28    82   417   320   589    12    90
Jason Bourgeois      .267  .305  .340   625  1733   216   462    58    15    13   123    92   193   127    76

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Brett Myers           135  135   21    4.34  457  389     2526 2575 1218  359  803 1997     95
Wandy Rodriguez       122  128    0    4.22  347  338     2026 2026  950  242  726 1702     96
J.A. Happ              55   65    0    4.42  207  177     1054 1009  518  137  513  857     90

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Carlos Lee        LF      8%  20%  19%  24%  29%        Ernie Banks      Tino Martinez          Del Ennis
J.D. Martinez     LF      4%  19%  22%  27%  29%       Delmon Young         Carlos Lee         Joe Vosmik
Jose Altuve       2B     16%  14%  18%  24%  29%          Steve Sax     Edgar Renteria    Joseph Thurston
Brett Wallace     1B      5%   7%   8%  24%  56%    Ever Magallanes         Ray Olmedo     Chris Barnwell
Jed Lowrie        SS     21%  25%  29%  17%   7%      Ivanon Coffie         Kevin Orie        Mendy Lopez
Matt Downs        2B     15%  17%  20%  24%  25%         Matt Craig      Ivanon Coffie    Jeffrey Baisley
Jason Bourgeois   CF      6%   9%  21%  31%  33%     Doug Glanville      Norris Hopper     Brandon Watson
Chris Johnson     3B      2%   7%  15%  26%  50%          Jose Leon       Brook Jacoby      Jose Castillo
Nick Stavinoha    1B      1%   3%   5%  23%  68%          Mike Bell   Guillermo Garcia        Tommy Davis
Andrew Locke      RF      0%   1%   3%  11%  85%      Caleb Stewart     Keith Williams      Robby Hammock
Brian Bogusevic   RF      0%   2%   4%  12%  81%       Colin Porter      Paul Hertzler         Jason Maas
Jimmy Paredes     3B      1%   3%   6%  16%  73%        Bob Meacham     Shawon Dunston     Kenny Williams
Marwin Gonzalez   SS      2%   6%  18%  30%  45%         Hal Lanier         Luis Ojeda          Tom Foley
J.B. Shuck        LF      0%   1%   2%   6%  92%          Evan Frey      Steve Stanley        Tommy Gregg
Jacob Goebbert    RF      0%   1%   2%   7%  89%       Pedro Valdes     Orlando Isales      Angelo Cuevas
Joe Inglett       2B      3%   4%   8%  20%  66%      Dave Matranga       Miguel Cairo     Don Blasingame
James van Ostrand 1B      0%   0%   1%   4%  95%       Mike Eylward        Aaron Bates    Glenn Carpenter
Jason Castro      C       2%   5%   9%  26%  59%       Matt Treanor      Trey Lunsford        Andy Skeels
Angel Sanchez     SS      0%   3%  11%  26%  60%    Ever Magallanes         Ray Olmedo     Chris Barnwell
Jordan Schafer    CF      1%   1%   4%  10%  84%       Maiko Loyola    Roger Bernadina      Gary Cathcart
Collin DeLome     CF      1%   1%   4%  14%  81%        Jayson Bass       Jon VanEvery    Jason Robertson
Koby Clemens      1B      1%   1%   2%   6%  90%    Marlon Anderson       Miguel Cairo     Don Blasingame
Jon Gaston        RF      1%   1%   1%   3%  95%    Jason Robertson     Fletcher Bates        Brad Snyder
Anderson Hernandez2B      0%   1%   1%   5%  93%        Joey Aragon         Doug Baker  Gary Miller-Jones
David Flores      3B      0%   1%   2%   4%  92%        Scott White       Ryan Stegall       Nate Manning
Wladimir Sutil    SS      0%   1%   4%  14%  82%       Matt DeMarco     Benjamin Perez    Kevin Polcovich
Carlos Corporan   C       1%   2%   4%  15%  78%        Jason Brown          Tom Nieto         Jim Horner
Oswaldo Navarro   3B      0%   0%   1%   3%  96%        Keith Johns          Tom Hayes      Jason Camilli
Jonathan Villar   SS      4%   3%   6%  10%  77%        Pat Listach   Buddy Biancalana        Scott Bream
Humberto Quintero C       0%   0%   2%   9%  89%      Frank Charles     Charlie Greene        Chris Ashby
Brandon Barnes    CF      0%   0%   1%   4%  95%  Hipolito Martinez        Derrick Bly        Jamie Sykes
Robinson Cancel   C       0%   1%   3%   9%  87%        Pat Borders         Joe Oliver      Frank Charles
Jiovanni Mier     SS      0%   1%   3%   9%  86%        Ken Jackson      Josh McKinley    Matt Tuiasosopo
Craig Tatum       C       0%   0%   1%   5%  94%       Chris Tremie        Joe Hietpas     Bill Dobrolsky
Jose Vallejo      2B      0%   0%   0%   2%  98%       Rex Rundgren        Josh Reding        Bobby Falls

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Wilton Lopez      RP      22%    55%    22%           Jeff Tam         Mike Burns      Joseph Haines
Wandy Rodriguez   SP      29%    56%    16%       Denny Neagle    Floyd Bannister       Frank Tanana
Fernando RodriguezRP      15%    50%    35%         Mark Clear         Brad Lidge         Jack Meyer
Bud Norris        SP      27%    58%    15%          Ian Snell         John Maine          Ken Dixon
Wesley Wright     RP      10%    43%    48%    Armando Almanza        Gene Walter    Kevin Lovingier
Juan Abreu        RP      11%    43%    46%      Allan Simpson       Ryan Bukvich       Bart Miadich
Brandon Lyon      RP      12%    34%    54%        Bryan Corey     Kirk Bullinger        Terry Leach
Brett Myers       SP       9%    54%    37%        Jeff Weaver        Brett Tomko     Steve Trachsel
Samuel Gervacio   RP       8%    34%    57%      Steve Andrade      Scott Gentile       Brian Bruney
Sergio Escalona   RP       8%    37%    55%      David Rosario     Ricardo Jordan       Kevin Walker
Enerio Del RosarioRP       5%    28%    67%         Scott Rose       Scott Munter      Joe Davenport
J.A. Happ         SP       5%    32%    63%      Joel Hanrahan     Rich Robertson         Ken Kravec
David Carpenter   RP       3%    21%    77%       Ryan Houston         Mike Shade       Roy Corcoran
Fernando Abad     RP       3%    23%    74%     Roberto Rivera          Chris Key     Erasmo Ramirez
Jordan Lyles      SP       2%    33%    65%        Clay Parker     Esteban Loaiza         Chris Holt
Aneury Rodriguez  RP       1%    16%    83%       Jesus Colome         Butch Edge      Chris Dunwell
Brett Oberholtzer SP       1%    24%    75%        Brad Halsey         Jeff Mutis       Jeff Johnson
Jorge De Leon     RP       4%    24%    72%        Mark Hutton         Scott Rose      Jose Santiago
Dallas Keuchel    SP       2%    18%    80%   Bobby Livingston    Andy Van Hekken        Brad Halsey
Lucas Harrell     SP       2%    20%    78%          Tim Byron      Jeff Fulchino       Brett Laxton
Andy Van Hekken   SP       3%    19%    79%    Andrew Lorraine        John Halama      Randy Keisler
Kyle Weiland      SP       0%    10%    89%         Kevin Ritz       Sean Bergman          Roy North
Jarred Cosart     SP       0%    11%    89%      Jeff Fulchino    Ben Hendrickson   Preston Larrison
Paul Clemens      SP       0%     8%    91%      Travis Hughes      Jorge Cordova      Edwin Jackson
Henry Sosa        SP       0%     7%    93%     Steven Jackson      Scott Rivette      Steve Watkins
Arcenio Leon      RP       0%     4%    95%     Ryan Henderson Heathcliff Slocumb        Chris Clark
Henry Villar      RP       0%     2%    98%       Pedro Guzman       Brian Slocum       Chris Wright
Ryan Rowland-SmithSP       0%     2%    98%        Scott Downs     Michael Bacsik       Dave Gassner
Sergio Perez      SP       0%     1%    99%          Ben Fritz         Lee Rodney    Mickey Callaway
Rhiner Cruz       RP       0%     1%    99%     Edwardo Sierra   Franklin Morales    Agustin Montero
Ross Seaton       SP       0%     0%   100%      Matt Childers       Luis Mendoza       David Pauley

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Carlos Lee              13%       3%      10%       3%       1%       6%       3%       0%
J.D. Martinez           18%       5%       1%      11%       1%       1%       1%       0%
Jose Altuve             37%       3%       2%       4%      24%       1%       1%      59%
Brett Wallace            6%       4%       7%       1%       0%       6%       4%       0%
Jed Lowrie               4%       3%       4%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Matt Downs               5%       2%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jason Bourgeois         15%       1%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%      40%
Chris Johnson            3%       0%       2%       1%       4%       1%       0%       0%
Nick Stavinoha           2%       0%       2%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Andrew Locke             0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Brian Bogusevic          0%       1%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       2%
Jimmy Paredes            2%       0%       2%       7%      29%       1%       0%      68%
Marwin Gonzalez          4%       0%       0%       1%       5%       0%       0%       1%
J.B. Shuck               3%       3%       0%       0%      25%       0%       0%       4%
Jacob Goebbert           1%       0%       0%       2%       5%       0%       0%       0%
Joe Inglett              8%       6%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
James van Ostrand        1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jason Castro             1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Angel Sanchez            3%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Jordan Schafer           0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       6%
Collin DeLome            0%       0%       1%       0%      12%       0%       0%       0%
Koby Clemens             0%       0%       2%       0%       1%       3%       1%       0%
Jon Gaston               0%       0%       1%       0%      29%       1%       0%       0%
Anderson Hernandez       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       2%
David Flores             0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Wladimir Sutil           2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       4%
Carlos Corporan          0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Oswaldo Navarro          0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jonathan Villar          0%       0%       4%       1%      20%       5%       2%      63%
Humberto Quintero        1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brandon Barnes           0%       0%       0%       0%       6%       0%       0%       0%
Robinson Cancel          1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Jiovanni Mier            0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       2%
Craig Tatum              1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jose Vallejo             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Wilton Lopez              17%        66%        13%        53%        79%
Wandy Rodriguez            5%        53%        39%         2%        52%
Fernando Rodriguez        11%        58%        98%         0%        51%
Bud Norris                 4%        55%        71%         0%        40%
Wesley Wright              6%        45%        59%         0%        56%
Juan Abreu                 8%        39%        99%         0%        43%
Brandon Lyon              12%        38%         5%         5%        66%
Brett Myers                2%        26%         7%        14%        31%
Samuel Gervacio            8%        34%        56%         2%        51%
Sergio Escalona            5%        37%        33%         1%        60%
Enerio Del Rosario         3%        27%         0%         4%        69%
J.A. Happ                  1%        12%        20%         0%        41%
David Carpenter            2%        18%        41%         0%        59%
Fernando Abad              2%        20%        13%        36%        27%
Jordan Lyles               0%         8%         1%         8%        54%
Aneury Rodriguez           0%        10%         8%         0%        43%
Brett Oberholtzer          0%         5%         0%         1%        58%
Jorge De Leon              2%        21%         3%         3%        62%
Dallas Keuchel             1%         5%         0%         9%        58%
Lucas Harrell              0%         5%         0%         0%        79%
Andy Van Hekken            0%         8%         2%         5%        73%
Kyle Weiland               0%         2%         3%         0%        39%
Jarred Cosart              0%         2%         0%         0%        47%
Paul Clemens               0%         2%         3%         0%        33%
Henry Sosa                 0%         1%         1%         0%        29%
Arcenio Leon               0%         3%        17%         0%        71%
Henry Villar               0%         1%         0%         0%        21%
Ryan Rowland-Smith         0%         0%         0%         5%         5%
Sergio Perez               0%         0%         0%         0%        29%
Rhiner Cruz                0%         1%        11%         0%        36%
Ross Seaton                0%         0%         0%         0%        14%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
Cardinals
Dodgers
Twins
Giants
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 19, 2011 at 07:34 PM | 54 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. BobbyS Posted: December 19, 2011 at 07:47 PM (#4019409)
I like that J.D. comps to the guy right above him.
   2. xanthan Posted: December 19, 2011 at 07:50 PM (#4019411)
Altuve looks like a kind-of-useful guy to have on a major league roster. And, uh ... Jed Lowrie could be decent if a) his defense isn't terrible, and b) he doesn't get too terribly injured.

Every time I read projections like these, I'm amazed at how far Brett Wallace's value has dropped. I remember when he was drafted and the book on him was that he would hit. Now it looks like he's more of a league-average bat with no other secondary skills.
   3. JJ1986 Posted: December 19, 2011 at 07:56 PM (#4019417)
I had no idea Bud Norris was so old. I thought he was 24 or so.
   4. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 19, 2011 at 07:59 PM (#4019420)
2011 Outfielder defense per BBREF WAR:

1 Brett Gardner 34
2 Carlos Lee 21
3 Mike Stanton 20
4 Kosuke Fukudome 19
5 Chris Young 18
6 Rick Ankiel 17
7 Chris Denorfia 15
8 Denard Span 14
9 Carlos Gomez 14
10 Michael Bourn 13
11 Peter Bourjos 13

FWIW Fangraphs also has Lee as a plus defender in 2011

Is that even physically possible?
   5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 19, 2011 at 08:01 PM (#4019421)
Juan Abreu is listed twice with two different sets of numbers - 4.10 ERA and 5.20 ERA.
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 19, 2011 at 08:02 PM (#4019422)
Is that even physically possible?

I'd have to guess he got a skewed distribution of chances. Lot's of easy plays that look hard when zoned, either b/c of location, velocity (difference btw a fly/fliner/liner) or his slowness made easy plays look harder.
   7. Ryan Lind Posted: December 19, 2011 at 08:08 PM (#4019428)
Yuck.

What order are we going in anyway?
   8. Russ Posted: December 19, 2011 at 08:13 PM (#4019431)
What order are we going in anyway?



Reverse of last year, I believe.
   9. JJ1986 Posted: December 19, 2011 at 08:14 PM (#4019432)
What order are we going in anyway?


It looks like 2010 payroll descending.
   10. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 19, 2011 at 08:17 PM (#4019435)
Every time I read projections like these, I'm amazed at how far Brett Wallace's value has dropped. I remember when he was drafted and the book on him was that he would hit. Now it looks like he's more of a league-average bat with no other secondary skills.


He was teammates with Ike Davis for 3 years
He outhit Ike EVERY single year- his WORST year had him OPS higher than Ike's college career, Brett's college OPS was 1197, Ike's was 1015- same team same years

Ike was a 1B, Brett was a 3B...
Brett was drafted 13th overall, Ike 18th (And a recall hearing that was a reach)

Brett hit .337/.427/.530 his first pro season at age 21- between the midwest league and AA
Ike hit .256/.326/.326 his first pro season at age 21- in the New York Penn league

Ike reached #62 on BA's prospect list, Brett #27

and now Ike projects to 113, and Brett 97.
Basically after that age 21 year Ike has outplayed Brett in very possible way (except in staying healthy)

How does that happen?

1: Defense/Athleticism, Ike was always a better athlete/fielder- Brett played 3B when Ike played 1B simply because Ike throws left and hence CAN'T play any other IF position*- but in truth he always had better hands, better range than Wallace- who was never going to play 3B in the majors

2: Hitting: I think before age 22, Wallace really was a better hitter, and this is simply a case where Ike improved through ages 22 and 23 and Wallace basically didn't - I don't think there is anyway to predict/project that reliably.


*There were times back in the 1980s, where if the Mets had Keith Hernandez play 3rd, he would have played it better than whoever Davey Johnson was running out there... Ike is not THAT good, but he's got a clear defensive tool separation advantage on Wallace...
   11. Ryan Lind Posted: December 19, 2011 at 08:18 PM (#4019436)
That's what I thought originally (payroll) but I didn't think the Twins would be that high ... ?
   12. Der-K thinks the Essex Green were a good band. Posted: December 19, 2011 at 08:21 PM (#4019439)
If I'm reading these numbers correctly, ZiPS projects no Houston position players to be league average talent (off + def) in 2012. Nifty...
   13. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: December 19, 2011 at 08:28 PM (#4019443)
Wow, so 2 barely above average starters and maybe 1-2 above average position players. This team is horrific.
   14. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 19, 2011 at 08:29 PM (#4019445)
Every time I read projections like these, I'm amazed at how far Brett Wallace's value has dropped.


Probably a red flag that he was dealt three times before he even reached the big leagues. It was a game of Hot Potato, and Ed Wade lost.
   15. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 19, 2011 at 08:40 PM (#4019456)
Third highest OPS is a second baseman born in 1990? That guy must be a star in the making.

Wow, his minor league numbers say so. .389 / .426 / .591 in 391 PA, with 24 steals and only 40 strikeouts. And only 60% of that was with the Lancaster JetHawks!
   16. cooper7d7 Posted: December 19, 2011 at 08:44 PM (#4019460)
Is it me or do the Astros and Twins look alot alike?
   17. Der-K thinks the Essex Green were a good band. Posted: December 19, 2011 at 08:44 PM (#4019461)
maybe 1-2 above average position players.

Not when you add in defense.

That second baseman is easy to root for - he's 5-5 which caused him not to make a lot of prospect lists going into last season.

Request for Brian Bixler, please.
   18. Ryan Lind Posted: December 19, 2011 at 08:45 PM (#4019464)

Probably a red flag that he was dealt three times before he even reached the big leagues.


Ahh yes, the Andy Marte Rule.
   19. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 19, 2011 at 08:47 PM (#4019467)
Wow, so 2 barely above average starters and maybe 1-2 above average position players. This team is horrific.

Where are you seeing the 2 position players? Altuve, if his D is avg or better, and you ignore his height, and...

Jed "Glassman" Lowrie?

Calling this team horrific is an insult to horrific teams. They were horrific when they had Pence and Bourn. No it's a freak show.

Edit: Coke to Der K 2
   20. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 19, 2011 at 08:48 PM (#4019468)
Gio Gonzalez was traded three times before he reached the big leagues, and he seems to be doing OK.
   21. Mike Webber Posted: December 19, 2011 at 08:52 PM (#4019476)
Some questions about Jose Altuve
1) Would a major league manager really allow him to go 33/21 in SB/CS?
2) He hit .389 in A+/AA in 391 PA as 21yo last year, with 26/40 K/BB ratio. What are the odds that he really takes a leap forward this year? Or does the 5/29 K/BB ratio in the majors just out weight all those minor league numbers?
   22. Tricky Dick Posted: December 19, 2011 at 08:57 PM (#4019484)
That bad a projection for Bogusevic surprises me. It's not like I expect him to have anything close to the 122 OPS+ last season, but I thought maybe he could be an average hitter.

If the Astros trade Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers for prospects, the rotation will be really ugly.
   23. shattnering his Dominicano G Strings on that Mound Posted: December 19, 2011 at 08:58 PM (#4019485)
John Sickels seems to think Altuve's for real and that only his tiny size holds most people back as the rest of his skills/performance are astounding. He could be Pedroia 2.0 for this colossally awful team. I'm just curious why he's projected to get gunned down stealing so much 33/54 for a 61% success rate is ARFul and a little surprising since Sickels touts him as "a good athlete, with average speed but terrific instincts on the bases." Is that the worst success rate for a player with that many chances in the ZiPS thus far?
   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 19, 2011 at 09:03 PM (#4019490)
Some questions about Jose Altuve
1) Would a major league manager really allow him to go 33/21 in SB/CS?
2) He hit .389 in A+/AA in 391 PA as 21yo last year, with 26/40 K/BB ratio. What are the odds that he really takes a leap forward this year? Or does the 5/29 K/BB ratio in the majors just out weight all those minor league numbers?


I think if you're playing in MLB at 5'5", you're going to have to show you can do some damage to a fastball down the middle of the plate before you start getting walks.

He needs to generate at least 7-10 HR/triples, and 20 or so doubles to keep them honest. If the .060 ISO from last year persists, he's not going to make it.
   25. Tricky Dick Posted: December 19, 2011 at 09:22 PM (#4019506)
The Astros signed Travis Buck to a NRI. Just out of curiosity, how does he project?
   26. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 19, 2011 at 09:25 PM (#4019508)
The extra Juan Abreu has been eliminated - the first projection was an error because I copied and pasted a line above Juan Abreu and not his 2011 and I must not have overwritten it.
   27. Davo Dozier Posted: December 19, 2011 at 09:26 PM (#4019510)
I am irrationally high on Bud Norris and Matt Downs.
   28. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 19, 2011 at 09:30 PM (#4019514)
ZiPS has always been kinda down on Wallace for awhile.

2009 projection: 275/333/424
Rest of Year 2009 (after trade): 264/323/392
2010 projection: 246/314/385
2011 projection: 261/324/414

ZiPS never really saw Wallace becoming a good hitter at a position he could play and so far, it hasn't been wrong.
   29. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 19, 2011 at 09:31 PM (#4019516)
So, can this team take a run at the 1962 Mets?

I think they'd have to get rid of Wandy and Myers (otherwise the SP is too cromulent), but that should be coming soon.
   30. alkeiper Posted: December 19, 2011 at 09:36 PM (#4019522)
Before the Latos trade, the Louisville Bats might've had a better offense than this group.
   31. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 19, 2011 at 09:58 PM (#4019541)
That bad a projection for Bogusevic surprises me. It's not like I expect him to have anything close to the 122 OPS+ last season, but I thought maybe he could be an average hitter.


3 years in AAA, not once did he reach league average, 1410 AAA PAs, and I'm guessing his mles work out to a 60-70 OPS+
against that you have 213 MLB PAs at a 111 OPS+ (most during his age 27 season), it may have helped a little that he was literally never allowed to bat against lefties...
   32. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 19, 2011 at 09:59 PM (#4019542)
So, can this team take a run at the 1962 Mets?

The most obvious comparison is the 2003 Tigers.

The 2002 Tigers went 55-106. Then they got rid of their 2002 All-Star (Robert Fick, of all people) thinking that Dmitri Young could play left field and Dean Palmer was healthy enough to DH every day. They got rid of recent All-Star Damion Easley and replaced him with recent near-ROY Warren Morris. They gave the exciting prospect Eric Munson the 3B job and the not-even-close-to-ready Omar Infante the SS job. They got rid of their #1 starter (Mark Redman), after already trading their other two proven starters (Jeff Weaver and Brian Moehler) mid-season.

The starting rotation (Maroth, Bonderman, Cornejo, Bernero, Knotts) had a total of 56 career starts as of Opening Day, and only Bonderman and Cornejo were any sort of prospect.

And they did take a run at the 1962 Mets.

The Astros lineup looks a lot like that Tigers ilneup, with Carlos Lee playing the role of Dmitri Young, and no obvious Bobby Higginson in sight. But the rotation, that's a little better.

Let the J.A. Happ 20-loss watch commence!
   33. zonk Posted: December 19, 2011 at 10:14 PM (#4019551)
Carlos Lee reminds me of the old woman in Dolores Claiborne (not the Kathy Bates character; the woman she Kevorkian'ed) -- "I'm tired, I just wanna be done." Bad as that line is - I'll take the under.
   34. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: December 19, 2011 at 10:32 PM (#4019563)
#17 and #19, yeah, I was thinking Altuve @ 98 OPS+ and Average or better D being above average for a 2b, and Lowrie being possibly above average if he's healthy. It's downright dire.
   35. glover6ss Posted: December 19, 2011 at 10:39 PM (#4019571)
Brian Bixler is with the Astros now, too. Can we get a projection for him, please?
   36. UCCF Posted: December 19, 2011 at 10:52 PM (#4019577)
Jordan Schafer... man, he dropped off the planet. His #1 comp is Maiko Loyola, who I had to look up - a guy who never played above A ball (and I was really hoping that I'd somehow just missed a guy named Maiko Loyola playing in the bigs).
   37. Walt Davis Posted: December 19, 2011 at 11:28 PM (#4019614)
Marwin Gonzalez -- awesome. Might I suggest his comps should be Marvel Wynne, Wonderful Monds and Darwin Barney?
   38. Tricky Dick Posted: December 19, 2011 at 11:49 PM (#4019628)
3 years in AAA, not once did he reach league average, 1410 AAA PAs, and I'm guessing his mles work out to a 60-70 OPS+


Bogusevic's career path in the minors isn't exactly normal. That might change some of the interpretation--or maybe not. Bogusevic was picked in the first round as a pitcher and worked his way up to AA as a starting pitcher. The Astros then changed his position to outfield, and his first couple of minor league seasons had to be a big transition, since he hadn't batted as a position player since he was in college. The Astros pushed him to AAA rather quickly because of his late age. If his performance is based on the typical 27 year old minor league outfielder, that may not fit, since his late age for AAA is due to the career change. I would like to see Bogusevic succeed at least as a platoon RFer because it's fun to watch him throw out runners.

Brian Bixler is with the Astros now, too.


Bixler was removed from the 40 man roster when the Astros traded for Lowrie.
   39. Tricky Dick Posted: December 19, 2011 at 11:59 PM (#4019633)
Not to be picky, but it's the "AL West bound" Astros, not NL West bound.
   40. PreservedFish Posted: December 20, 2011 at 12:13 AM (#4019635)
Is it bo-GOO-seh-vich or BO-goo-SEH-vich?
   41. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 20, 2011 at 12:14 AM (#4019636)
They gave the exciting prospect Eric Munson the 3B job


You must have a different definition of "exciting prospect" than me, while formerly a first round pick he'd already dropped off of BA's lists 2 year before, I think it was more the 2003 Tigers saying, oh well we have some guys at Toledo who are not terrible, Munson, Monroe, Infante, lets pay them league minimum and throw them against the wall, we're gonna loss 100 again anyway...
   42. Willie Mayspedes Posted: December 20, 2011 at 12:35 AM (#4019646)
That Bogusevic projection is bogus!
   43. Tricky Dick Posted: December 20, 2011 at 02:40 AM (#4019726)
Is it bo-GOO-seh-vich or BO-goo-SEH-vich?


boe-guh-SEV-ic
   44. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 20, 2011 at 06:54 AM (#4019958)
Yikes! Who's the All-Star from this team? Altuve I guess.
   45. Austin Posted: December 20, 2011 at 10:24 AM (#4019965)
I think the correct term to describe the Astros' roster is "barren wasteland."

I'm pretty surprised that Altuve projects so well, given that his minor-league numbers were mostly in high-octane environments and relied in decent part on sky-high BABIPs. I'm also surprised that Wandy projects so poorly, considering that he's been at least 0.29 below that ERA in each of the last four seasons. I suppose it's a combination of age and a concerning FIP last season.
   46. Walt Davis Posted: December 20, 2011 at 07:02 PM (#4020251)
Yikes! Who's the All-Star from this team? Altuve I guess.

Or some reliever lucks into 25 innings of goodness or Wandy is Wandy.
   47. limozeen Posted: December 21, 2011 at 03:47 AM (#4020790)
Hey Dan, what does ZiPS think of Mark Melancon in Boston (since he slipped through the cracks)?
   48. nathanj42 Posted: December 21, 2011 at 11:05 PM (#4021453)
W/o doing the research, this is the worst collection of position players in the last 30 years. While those '03 Tigers were terrible, a number of those position players were up-and-coming & had solid careers (Carlos Pena, Brandon Inge, Omar Infante, etc). It's possible that none of the 2012 Astros are in the MLB in 2015, although I expect Jason Castro to be the below average catcher for awhile.
   49. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 21, 2011 at 11:27 PM (#4021470)
Some of the Devil Rays lineups back in the Damian Rolls era were absolutely filled with young guys who would never accomplish anything. But they also had Carl Crawford starting in 2002, and veterans like Fred McGriff and Greg Vaughn and Gerald Williams and Vinny Castilla before then.

The 2002 lineup was absolutely awful before Crawford was called up in mid-July, but it did include Randy Winn. On the occasions that Winn didn't start, it was

C Toby Hall or John Flaherty
1B Steve Cox
2B Brent Abernathy
3B Jared Sandberg or Russ Johnson
SS Chris Gomez
LF Jason Tyner
CF Jason Conti
RF Ben Grieve
DH Greg Vaughn
   50. Roger Cedeno's Spleen Posted: December 22, 2011 at 12:41 AM (#4021512)
Those projections read like an excerpt from the Necronomicon...
   51. Der-K thinks the Essex Green were a good band. Posted: December 22, 2011 at 01:13 AM (#4021519)
Bixler was removed from the 40 man roster when the Astros traded for Lowrie.

Still an Astro, though - outrighted to AAA.
   52. base ball chick Posted: December 22, 2011 at 04:10 AM (#4021586)
joe inglett is not in the astros Organization. hopefully, neither is anderson hernandez

wandy rodriguez is not gonna be on the team - he WILl be traded, and i know that luhnow/crane are doing their best to dump myers and carlos lee, too
   53. JJ1986 Posted: December 22, 2011 at 04:17 AM (#4021590)
hopefully, neither is anderson hernandez


IPOR signed with the Pirates today.
   54. base ball chick Posted: December 22, 2011 at 05:05 AM (#4021614)
it tells you plenty that anderson freaking hernandez and his 30+ errors was the MVP of our AAA club

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