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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, November 20, 2011

2012 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Angels

Like the last team projected (White Sox), it’s very interesting to see what route the White Sox take this winter.  Despite ZiPS’ favoritest young prospect, Mike Trout, the Angels have a

pretty low upside offense, with Hunter and Abreu starting to show their age and a lot of average-ish players that aren’t problems, but not exactly feared middle-of-the-order guys.  The

Angels think they have surplus outfielders, but they really don’t.  The Angels led the AL in ERA, but that’s also top-heavy and it’s hard for any improvement in the wins column to come from

the offense unless they realize that no matter how much they pay well, he’s still a 4th-outfielder and Jeff Mathis is such a terrible hitter that he can’t remotely make it up on defense,

even if he was within a mile of actually being as solid defensively as some people think.

The Angels are rumored to be in on C.J. Wilson and that’s the kind of move they need to pull out of their hats if they insist on throwing bad money after good on offense (outs are as much

a resource as money in baseball).

Next Up: Seattle Mariners

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Mike Trout        R    CF   20   .267 .338 .414 156 604 110 161  26   9  15  58  58 136  39  14  106
Kendrys Morales   R    1B   29   .274 .321 .455  87 325  42  89  17   0  14  54  21  62   1   3  111
Howie Kendrick    R    2B   28   .275 .320 .431 145 552  77 152  31   5  15  70  29 105  15   6  104
Torii Hunter      R    RF   36   .261 .329 .431 136 513  69 134  25   1  20  78  49 107   9   7  107
Erick Aybar       B    SS   28   .275 .320 .392 145 553  74 152  27   7   8  53  32  71  24   7   95
Peter Bourjos     R    CF   25   .261 .309 .412 152 571  84 149  23  12  13  52  33 127  30   9   96
Bobby Abreu       L    DH   38   .246 .338 .385 131 480  61 118  29   1  12  64  67 110  19   7   99
Alberto Callaspo  B    3B   29   .276 .334 .380 143 510  61 141  25   2   8  54  45  46   5   2   96
Russell Branyan   L    1B   36   .224 .307 .434  77 205  25  46  10   0  11  30  24  69   1   0  101
Mark Trumbo       R    1B   26   .253 .295 .437 156 590  71 149  30   2  25  91  34 141   6   4   98
Vernon Wells      R    LF   33   .255 .298 .422 138 533  66 136  26   3  19  69  32  77   9   4   95
Maicer Izturis    B    2B   31   .268 .327 .377 103 369  48  99  23   1   5  43  29  48   9   5   93
Hank Conger       B    C    24   .248 .317 .372 119 419  44 104  20   1  10  52  42  82   1   1   89
Jean Segura       R    SS   22   .256 .292 .376 117 481  66 123  21   5   9  54  25  75  28   9   82
Luis Jimenez      R    3B   24   .250 .285 .403 148 591  71 148  40   4  14  86  23 103  14   8   87
Bobby Wilson      R    C    29   .245 .296 .353  68 184  15  45  11   0   3  21  13  34   0   1   78
Paul McAnulty     L    LF   31   .230 .285 .365 122 447  47 103  22   1  12  55  34 111   1   2   78
Jeremy Moore      L    RF   25   .235 .270 .380 141 524  67 123  17  10  13  55  24 174  19  11   76
Kevin Melillo     L    LF   30   .229 .295 .347  82 297  35  68  13   2   6  31  29  63   4   3   76
Freddy Sandoval   B    LF   29   .229 .285 .345  66 249  29  57  11   3   4  33  17  48   4   2   73
Alexi Amarista    L    2B   23   .254 .288 .341 140 563  66 143  25   6   4  61  25  83  15  11   73
Efren Navarro     L    1B   26   .244 .290 .332 154 569  60 139  28   2   6  56  36  98   5   4   71
Cole Armstrong    L    C    28   .229 .281 .344  85 279  23  64  14   0   6  30  20  67   0   1   71
Gil Velazquez     R    SS   32   .238 .281 .319 111 383  43  91  15   2   4  30  22  71   7   3   65
Orlando Mercado   R    C    27   .234 .297 .303  88 290  25  68  11   0   3  31  26  50   1   2   66
Chris Pettit      R    LF   27   .202 .264 .305 106 397  47  80  19   2   6  44  27 114  11   3   56
Andrew Romine     B    SS   26   .228 .290 .276 134 496  63 113  12   3   2  31  40 115  21  10   57
Tyson Auer        R    CF   26   .234 .271 .301 126 508  69 119  17   4   3  34  23 124  28  16   57
Kevin Richardson  R    C    31   .191 .242 .332  74 256  24  49  10   1   8  28  13 114   0   0   56
Jeff Mathis       R    C    29   .205 .258 .313  88 249  25  51  10   1   5  28  17  75   2   2   57
Reggie Willits    B    RF   31   .213 .296 .247 102 263  32  56   7   1   0  15  30  59   4   3   52

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Mike Trout                                                    VG/94   AV/64  VG/109
Kendrys Morales               AV/85
Howie Kendrick               VG/104   AV/71                   AV/91
Torii Hunter                                                          FR/49   AV/82
Erick Aybar                                           AV/83
Peter Bourjos                                                VG/112   EX/71  VG/118
Bobby Abreu                                                  PO/123          PO/123
Alberto Callaspo                     FR/129   VG/75
Russell Branyan              FR/123
Mark Trumbo                  AV/125                           AV/96           AV/96
Vernon Wells                                                  AV/89   PO/87
Maicer Izturis                        AV/72   VG/89   AV/91
Hank Conger              FR
Jean Segura                          AV/106           FR/97
Luis Jimenez                                 AV/116
Bobby Wilson             AV   AV/94
Paul McAnulty                AV/140          PO/125           AV/95          FR/125
Jeremy Moore                                                 VG/191  VG/133  VG/234
Kevin Melillo                VG/110  FR/111  AV/107           AV/94  FR/117  AV/127
Freddy Sandoval              AV/121  PO/127   AV/93           FR/91
Alexi Amarista                        AV/87          FR/109  VG/123  FR/113  AV/119
Efren Navarro                 AV/90                                           AV/99
Cole Armstrong           AV
Gil Velazquez                AV/114   FR/88   AV/94  FR/108  AV/119
Orlando Mercado          AV  AV/109          PO/117
Chris Pettit                 AV/107                           AV/87           FR/91
Andrew Romine                         AV/90  AV/102   AV/91
Tyson Auer                                                   VG/104   VG/84  VG/111
Kevin Richardson         AV
Jeff Mathis              AV
Reggie Willits                                                VG/73  AV/114  AV/124

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Jered Weaver      R      29     3.16    16    8   32   32   216.7  188   76   21   54  196   128
Dan Haren         R      31     3.59    14    9   32   32   215.7  209   86   24   38  177   113
Ervin Santana     R      29     4.19    11   10   30   29   195.7  194   91   25   62  151    97
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Joel Pineiro      R      33     4.67     7    8   24   22   140.7  160   73   15   32   68    87
Trevor Bell       R      25     4.73     5    6   31   15   106.7  121   56   11   32   64    86
Jerome Williams   R      30     5.04     5    7   21   15   103.7  121   58   15   30   65    81
Tyler Chatwood    R      22     5.32     8   11   29   27   150.7  175   89   17   73   79    76
Matt Palmer       R      33     5.47     6    8   26   16   107.0  125   65   13   48   61    74
Scott Kazmir      L      28     5.48     5    8   17   17    88.7   97   54   12   46   61    74
Garrett Richards  R      24     5.48     6   10   27   24   133.0  154   81   18   56   77    74
Eric Junge        R      35     5.68     4    7   18   17   107.7  132   68   17   34   51    71
Brian Lawrence    R      36     6.16     3    7   13   12    64.3   86   44   10   19   31    66
Matt Shoemaker    R      25     6.19     5   10   24   20   123.7  153   85   22   51   71    66
Ariel Pena        R      23     6.54     4   10   24   24   119.7  145   87   15   94   81    62
Ryan Ketchner     L      30     6.55     3    7   21   16    92.0  120   67   18   37   40    62
Fabio Martinez MesR      21     7.13     3    8   21   20    89.7   94   71   13  113   84    57

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Jordan Walden     R      24     3.54     4    3   61    0    61.0   55   24    5   26   66   115
Scott Downs       L      36     3.56     5    3   55    0    48.0   46   19    4   14   36   114
Hisanori TakahashiL      36     3.57     4    3   64    0    75.7   69   30    8   26   73   113
Rich Thompson     R      27     3.74     2    2   40    0    53.0   49   22    6   19   51   109
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Jeremy Berg       R      25     4.43     2    2   51    0    69.0   74   34    6   24   43    91
Michael Kohn      R      26     4.50     3    3   59    0    60.0   56   30    7   35   58    90
Fernando Rodney   R      35     4.56     3    4   53    0    49.3   48   25    4   28   39    89
Kevin Jepsen      R      27     4.76     4    4   57    0    56.7   60   30    6   25   45    85
Bobby Cassevah    R      26     4.80     3    4   52    0    65.7   71   35    6   30   36    85
David Carpenter   R      24     4.80     2    2   44    0    45.0   46   24    5   23   33    84
Francisco M. RodriR      28     5.04     3    4   42    0    55.3   56   31    7   30   41    80
Horacio Ramirez   L      32     5.73     2    4   35    5    55.0   69   35    8   18   21    71
John Hellweg      R      23     6.02     3    6   33    9    64.3   65   43    8   66   56    67
Ysmael Carmona    R      27     6.51     2    4   34    0    37.3   42   27    5   34   26    62
Jason Bulger      R      33     4.40     1    1   42    0    43.0   39   21    5   25   43    95

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Bobby Abreu          .286  .387  .465  2601  9443  1567  2701   633    61   313  1493  1580  2041   439   124
Torii Hunter         .269  .328  .455  2298  8528  1219  2296   471    36   346  1316   691  1658   205   107
Vernon Wells         .269  .316  .456  1976  7735  1057  2080   438    43   308  1097   523  1081   126   103
Howie Kendrick       .276  .317  .420  1919  7287   968  2008   420    59   171   889   358  1228   168   100
Erick Aybar          .270  .313  .382  1964  7282   932  1963   333    87   103   685   398   854   237    89
Peter Bourjos        .254  .304  .400  1713  6375   909  1619   265   105   151   567   382  1341   253    92
Alberto Callaspo     .274  .330  .381  1550  5436   617  1491   266    29    86   565   458   447    49    94
Russell Branyan      .231  .323  .473  1275  3521   471   812   172     8   222   548   463  1300    20   110

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Jered Weaver          217  135    0    3.44  472  473     3086 2779 1181  339  826 2704    120
Dan Haren             204  166    0    3.81  515  502     3342 3310 1413  396  670 2717    110
Ervin Santana         159  145    0    4.38  412  408     2646 2667 1288  355  861 2044     95
Joel Pineiro          137  132    2    4.51  444  367     2405 2629 1205  267  640 1365     93

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Mike Trout        CF     34%  27%  24%  15%   2%     Grady Sizemore         Adam Jones      Rondell White
Kendrys Morales   1B      4%  14%  31%  37%  15%        Xavier Nady        Matt LeCroy       Jose Guillen
Howie Kendrick    2B     32%  29%  19%  17%   4%         Gene Alley      Ryne Sandberg         Jorge Orta
Torii Hunter      RF      7%  18%  20%  28%  28%       Fred McGriff      Dave Winfield        Dusty Baker
Erick Aybar       SS     23%  38%  25%  13%   2%     Tony Fernandez      Rafael Furcal    Garry Templeton
Peter Bourjos     CF     10%  20%  48%  17%   5%    Marquis Grissom        Marlon Byrd       Carlos Gomez
Bobby Abreu       DH      5%  12%  20%  26%  38%     Brady Anderson    John Vander Wal     George McQuinn
Alberto Callaspo  3B      3%  15%  30%  34%  19%     Jeff Keppinger       Bill Mueller     Bob Aspromonte
Russell Branyan   1B      6%   8%  18%  39%  30%        Alan Zinter         Jeff Manto     Willie McCovey
Mark Trumbo       1B      1%   4%  12%  44%  40%      Richie Sexson       Julio Zuleta        Dave Hengel
Vernon Wells      LF      2%   6%  13%  29%  52%     Mike Devereaux         Hoot Evers  Ethanol Subsidies
Maicer Izturis    2B      8%  14%  23%  27%  30%        Todd Walker         Johnny Ray        Bob Johnson
Hank Conger       C       5%  13%  33%  39%  11%    Jason Jaramillo        Kurt Suzuki         Gregg Zaun
Jean Segura       SS     11%  14%  25%  28%  23%        Juan Castro        Jack Wilson         Luis Rivas
Luis Jimenez      3B      1%   2%   8%  25%  66%        Chris Truby  Aurelio Rodriguez       Olmedo Saenz
Bobby Wilson      C       1%   4%   7%  35%  54%        John Purdom      Scott Servais        Rick Cerone
Paul McAnulty     LF      1%   1%   0%   3%  97%         John Mabry       Scott Morgan        Todd Mensik
Jeremy Moore      RF      1%   1%   3%   3%  93%       Ben Copeland    Larry Whisenton      Todd Dunwoody
Kevin Melillo     LF      0%   1%   1%   4%  95%      Jeff Wetherby       Phil Dauphin        Nate Murphy
Freddy Sandoval   LF      0%   1%   1%   1%  98%         Tony Diggs        Lee Tinsley       Phil Dauphin
Alexi Amarista    2B      0%   1%   2%   5%  93%         Tony Abreu      Steven Garcia      William Suero
Efren Navarro     1B      0%   0%   0%   0% 100%       Rich Aldrete    Randy Jorgensen         Greg Monda
Cole Armstrong    C       2%   1%   7%  24%  67%        Craig Tatum   Alberto Castillo   Brandon Marsters
Gil Velazquez     SS      1%   1%   3%  14%  83%        Casey Smith       Leo Durocher        Jose Olmeda
Orlando Mercado   C       0%   0%   2%   7%  91%        Raul Chavez         David Duff       Gary Bennett
Chris Pettit      LF      0%   0%   0%   0% 100%      Craig Griffey       Randy Walter   Justin Singleton
Andrew Romine     SS      0%   0%   3%   3%  95%     Carson Carroll       Frank Mattox      Johnny Raburn
Tyson Auer        CF      0%   0%   0%   0% 100%     Chris Roberson    Michael McBryde         Billy Hall
Kevin Richardson  C       0%   1%   1%   3%  95%        Kevin Brown      Jayhawk Owens  George Mitterwald
Jeff Mathis       C       1%   0%   2%   4%  94%        Chris Curry    Paul Chiaffredo      Rebecca Black
Reggie Willits    RF      0%   0%   0%   0% 100%      Doug Dascenzo       Wayne Housie       Ron Roenicke

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Jered Weaver      SP      80%    15%     5%       Mike Mussina       Josh Beckett     Pete Vuckovich
Jordan Walden     RP      32%    50%    18%       Mark Wohlers        Bobby Jenks    Buddy Hernandez
Scott Downs       RP      43%    39%    18%       Brian Shouse      Rheal Cormier        Buddy Groom
Hisanori TakahashiRP      31%    52%    17%       Gary Lavelle         Tug McGraw         Dan Plesac
Dan Haren         SP      54%    41%     5%         Jon Lieber       Mike Mussina       Aaron Harang
Rich Thompson     RP      29%    48%    23%      Steve Andrade    Brandon Medders           Robb Nen
Ervin Santana     SP      14%    60%    25%      Mark Portugal     Steve Trachsel      Freddy Garcia
Jeremy Berg       RP       5%    40%    55%     David Wilhelmi      Danny Rueckel      Todd Williams
Michael Kohn      RP       6%    36%    58%       Ryan Bukvich         Jeff Zaske       Billy Sadler
Fernando Rodney   RP       8%    33%    59%         Ryne Duren       Rich DeLucia    Ricky Bottalico
Joel Pineiro      SP      12%    42%    46%          Bob Bruce           Jim Barr      Mickey Weston
Trevor Bell       SP       2%    26%    72%    Jamie Vermilyea     Denny Harriger       Kris Detmers
Kevin Jepsen      RP       4%    34%    62%      Ernie Camacho Heathcliff Slocumb        Jose Vargas
Bobby Cassevah    RP       2%    25%    73%       Scott Munter     Brett Merriman      Joe Davenport
David Carpenter   RP       7%    29%    64%        Blaine Neal       Steve LaRose         Matt Burch
Jerome Williams   SP       4%    28%    69%      Brian Sweeney      Geoff Grenert        Matt Ginter
Francisco M. RodriRP       2%    22%    76%         Mike James     Miguel Saladin       James Warden
Tyler Chatwood    SP       0%    14%    86%      Brian Moehler        Bob Milacki           Ed Wojna
Matt Palmer       SP       1%    15%    83%         Russ Ortiz          Spec Shea         Alan Benes
Scott Kazmir      SP       1%    12%    87%        Carl Grovom      Randy Keisler          Al Leiter
Garrett Richards  SP       0%    11%    89%         Dan Denham      Brandon Leese       Ryan Hancock
Eric Junge        SP       1%     9%    90%         Tim Kester       Kevin Jarvis       Charles Nagy
Horacio Ramirez   RP       1%     9%    89%    Stubby Overmire      Mike Jeffcoat       Mike Venafro
John Hellweg      RP       0%     2%    98%        Ted Langdon        Juan Guzman      Mike Magnante
Brian Lawrence    SP       1%     5%    94%       Kevin Jarvis         Tim Kester    Nerio Rodriguez
Matt Shoemaker    SP       0%     1%    99%         Rick Bauer    Greg Biercevicz       Danny Tamayo
Ysmael Carmona    RP       1%     3%    96%         Bart Evans      Nick Mattioni         Kevin Cave
Ariel Pena        SP       0%     0%   100%     Doug Robertson     Carlos Paredes          Roy North
Ryan Ketchner     SP       0%     1%    99%       Scott Aldred      Brian Abraham        Huck Flener
Fabio Martinez MesSP       0%     0%   100%       Jeff Schwarz         Ben Howard Fernando Hernandez

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Mike Trout               2%       5%       3%       1%      52%       3%       2%      87%
Kendrys Morales          5%       0%      12%       0%       0%       0%       4%       0%
Howie Kendrick           5%       0%       4%       1%       1%       1%       1%       7%
Torii Hunter             1%       2%       7%       0%       0%       9%       4%       1%
Erick Aybar              6%       1%       3%       0%      17%       1%       1%      19%
Peter Bourjos            1%       1%       1%       0%      82%       0%       0%      48%
Bobby Abreu              1%       4%       1%       1%       0%       0%       1%       9%
Alberto Callaspo         6%       3%       1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Russell Branyan          0%       1%       8%       0%       0%       0%       4%       0%
Mark Trumbo              0%       0%       4%       1%       0%      20%       1%       1%
Vernon Wells             2%       0%       2%       0%       0%       2%       0%       1%
Maicer Izturis           2%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       2%
Hank Conger              1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Jean Segura              2%       0%       3%       0%       4%       2%       2%      37%
Luis Jimenez             0%       0%       0%      21%       0%       1%       0%       4%
Bobby Wilson             0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Paul McAnulty            0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Jeremy Moore             0%       0%       2%       0%      63%       2%       1%       2%
Kevin Melillo            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Freddy Sandoval          0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Alexi Amarista           0%       0%       0%       0%      11%       0%       0%       6%
Efren Navarro            0%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Cole Armstrong           0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Gil Velazquez            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Orlando Mercado          0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Pettit             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Andrew Romine            0%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%      11%
Tyson Auer               0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%      33%
Kevin Richardson         0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jeff Mathis              0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Reggie Willits           0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Jered Weaver              49%        92%        57%        30%        74%
Jordan Walden             32%        76%        91%         1%        83%
Scott Downs               34%        76%        11%        28%        78%
Hisanori Takahashi        24%        78%        74%         5%        55%
Dan Haren                 16%        79%        22%        91%        57%
Rich Thompson             22%        70%        68%         5%        59%
Ervin Santana              1%        39%        10%         2%        33%
Jeremy Berg                5%        38%         0%         4%        83%
Michael Kohn               4%        35%        70%         0%        57%
Fernando Rodney            8%        33%        18%         0%        82%
Joel Pineiro               3%        25%         0%        50%        59%
Trevor Bell                2%        21%         2%        13%        69%
Kevin Jepsen               2%        24%        16%         1%        65%
Bobby Cassevah             1%        16%         0%         0%        67%
David Carpenter            4%        28%        10%         0%        65%
Jerome Williams            1%        11%         1%        13%        32%
Francisco M. Rodri         2%        14%         7%         0%        46%
Tyler Chatwood             0%         2%         0%         0%        57%
Matt Palmer                0%         5%         1%         1%        55%
Scott Kazmir               0%         3%         2%         0%        32%
Garrett Richards           0%         2%         0%         0%        29%
Eric Junge                 0%         2%         0%         8%        22%
Horacio Ramirez            1%         8%         0%        13%        32%
John Hellweg               0%         2%        40%         0%        50%
Brian Lawrence             0%         3%         0%        16%        22%
Matt Shoemaker             0%         0%         0%         0%         6%
Ysmael Carmona             1%         2%         8%         0%        43%
Ariel Pena                 0%         0%         1%         0%        38%
Ryan Ketchner              0%         0%         0%         1%         6%
Fabio Martinez Mes         0%         0%        62%         0%        30%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 20, 2011 at 01:51 AM | 17 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Boxkutter Posted: November 20, 2011 at 04:12 AM (#3997610)
Dan, I apologize if you've answered this before and I missed it in other comment sections,but...

You mentioned last year that you were toying with the idea of creating a projection disk that could be used with DMB10, is that still on the table? Or is it going to remain on DMB9 only? Our league has always used DMB9 so I don't care, just want to know. Thanks.
   2. Honkie Kong Posted: November 20, 2011 at 04:36 AM (#3997635)
Buddy Hernandez shows up in the comps section! Damn, that takes me back.
Free Buddy..err Jordan!
   3. Good cripple hitter Posted: November 20, 2011 at 04:38 AM (#3997636)
That's, uh, quite the regression for Downs. A 34% chance of having an ERA+>130 seems low as well.

All his comps seem to be players who had one good year out of the blue but cratered, while Downs has a longer and better track record. Then again, he's getting up there in years and his K's dropped to a career low as a reliever, so maybe he'll fall, too.

Lots of other depressingly bad lines: Wells, Branyan, Kazmir, so I'll focus on the players I liked showing up in comps: Matt LeCroy, Tony Fernandez, and who could forget the famous Hall of Fame batterymates on the New York Giants, Ethanol Subsidies and Rebecca Black.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: November 20, 2011 at 04:44 AM (#3997642)
Typos:

Like the last team projected (White Sox), it's very interesting to see what route the White Sox take this winter.
they realize that no matter how much they pay well, he's still a 4th-outfielder

Ethanol Subsidies

Just to let you know it was noticed and appreciated.

Gene Alley Ryne Sandberg Jorge Orta

Who are three players with nothing in common. :-)

Despite ZiPS' favoritest young prospect, Mike Trout

Based on comps, ZiPS likes Castro more. :-)
   5. BobbyS Posted: November 20, 2011 at 05:22 AM (#3997668)
Despite ZiPS' favoritest young prospect, Mike Trout

Based on comps, ZiPS likes Castro more. :-)


Castro (Starlin, I assume?) isn't a prospect anymore.

But this Trout projection gives me some hope for Anthony Rizzo's after his rough stint in the bigs, considering his monster AAA numbers.
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 20, 2011 at 06:04 AM (#3997739)
You mentioned last year that you were toying with the idea of creating a projection disk that could be used with DMB10, is that still on the table? Or is it going to remain on DMB9 only? Our league has always used DMB9 so I don't care, just want to know. Thanks.

I'm not sure the question - DMB released it in both v9 and v10 formats. I know their eventual goal is to have the base converted to 10 and release it for 10 only. I was pretty insistent last year about it being released in 9 as I know of a lot of sim leagues that were still mainly using 9, though I imagine that won't be supported forever.
   7. drone1313 Posted: November 20, 2011 at 06:33 AM (#3997767)
Rebecca Black and Jeff Mathis: a match made in hell, truly.

Is Reggie Willits equivalent to Willow Smith, then?
   8. John DiFool2 Posted: November 20, 2011 at 04:50 PM (#3997844)
Remember the 2009 lineup? The one which lead the league in BA at .285? I'm sure Anaheim fans do (wistfully)-and most of that lineup has either faded badly or moved on to other teams-virtually an entire generation of players gone:

Mike Napoli: hit .320 for the Rangers this year after .238 in his last year in LA.
Kendrys Morales: .306. Hasn't played since that walkoff granny he hit early in 2010 where he fractured his ankle celebrating.
Howie Kendrick: .291, hit .285 last year with 4.3 WAR.
Erick Aybar: .312, but rebounded after a subpar 2010 back to 4.7 WAR.
Chone Figgins: .298, notoriously cratered in Seattle.
Juan Rivera: .287, played indifferently for the Dodgers in part time play.
Torii Hunter: .299, dropped to .252 this past year.
Bobby Abreu: .293, should retire now after slugging .365 in '11.
Vlad Guerrero: .295. In Baltimore now: see Abreu.

I count 3 2009 regulars who contributed positively to this past year's team (and Hunter is borderline). Sad in a way.
   9. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 20, 2011 at 05:19 PM (#3997853)
Aw...I wanted to see Trout's extrapolated career statistics
   10. Willie Mayspedester Posted: November 21, 2011 at 07:16 PM (#3998632)
Wow a 20 year old projecting to have the highest OBP on the team with a .338 ouch! I'll be betting the under when they play my A's.
   11. Yonder Alonso in misguided trousers (cardinal) Posted: November 21, 2011 at 07:35 PM (#3998653)
Wow a 20 year old projecting to have the highest OBP on the team with a .338 ouch!

Well, tied with a 38 year old. Which, still...
   12. Darren Posted: November 23, 2011 at 04:43 PM (#4000108)
Abreu looks like he'll be the only non-Bonds in the 300 HR/400 SB club. Maybe that will get him the HOF consideration he deserves.
   13. Jim (jimmuscomp) Posted: November 28, 2011 at 03:09 AM (#4001847)
That offense is just sad. Wells and Mathis need to be lost (or benched) and Trout and Conger need to play everyday to see what 2013 looks like.
   14. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 28, 2011 at 07:31 AM (#4002015)
Couple requests for RPs: Robert Fish, Steve Geltz, and Chris Scholl.

Thanks!
   15. rob6239 Posted: January 11, 2012 at 09:11 PM (#4034661)
I saw the question about the DMB projections disk. I think he was asking if you are still doing them for 2012 projections. I think you are, and if so, what is the ETA on that? I'm excited to see it..
   16. A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo Posted: January 19, 2012 at 03:45 PM (#4040473)
I didn't see a projection for Chris Iannetta here or in the Rockies projections.
   17. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: January 19, 2012 at 04:30 PM (#4040544)
Is there a Pujols projection around? I didn't see one in the Cardinals writeup either. Thanks.

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