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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, December 10, 2011

2012 ZiPS Projections - Los Angeles Dodgers

Within last year’s projections, I described the 2010 season as a disappointing year that was more “bland mediocrity than explosive failure.”  That’s the same kind of season the Dodgers had

in 2011, a kind of bland mediocrity with a notably bright pinnacle, like seeing Ron Swanson backstage after a Nickelback concert.  That pinnacle, of course, being Cy Young winner Clayton

Kershaw and the real NL MVP, Matt Kemp, who, at in bWAR, made up half the value of the entire team in 2011.  Of course, no matter how dismal the Dodgers are outside of a couple of players,

at least the long regional nightmare, Frank McCourt, is finally going to be sent drifting out to see to slowly perish on an ice floe, presuming California voters manage to get enough

signatures to get that onto the next ballot.

The Dodger strategy of lousiness anchored onto the big stars is about to be double-downed, with Hiroki Kuroda, who provided another 10% of the team’s value in 2011, sent away, and Ned

Colletti trying to assemble a team that’s going to have an awesome 2005-2007.  Aaron Harang!  Chris Capuano!  Jerry Hairston!  Matt Treanor!  Mark Ellis!  Adam Kennedy!  Juan Rivera!  While

Mark Ellis is still very good defensively and Jerry Hairston is really a dynamite role player (and Matt Treanor was never good), that’s $43 million over 2 years to pile on complementary

pieces for a team that’s missing a lot of big ones.  Yeah, the long-term contract to Kemp is one I feel very wise, but Ned Colletti still doesn’t appear to get why the team wasn’t very good

in 2011.  And now, with more flotsam attached to the power generators, the Dodgers kinda look like one of those living room plugs where a foolish person has plugged in 23 appliances into

matryoshka-dolled surge protectors that will eventually lead to a fire that will dwarf that of Brünnhilde’s immolation.

Dodgers will finish somewhere between 75 and 83 wins and remain unsure as to why.

Next Up: St. Louis Cardinals

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Matt Kemp         R    CF   27   .280 .348 .503 156 586 101 164  28   5  31 104  61 155  32  12  130
Andre Ethier      L    RF   30   .275 .355 .447 139 512  76 141  30   2  18  77  61 103   3   2  119
James Loney       L    1B   28   .277 .334 .407 156 553  65 153  32   2  12  80  48  74   7   2  102
Juan Rivera       R    LF   33   .265 .318 .408 121 426  46 113  20   1  13  61  33  57   3   2   98
Jerry Sands       R    1B   24   .235 .308 .415 132 494  62 116  26   3  19  61  50 142   7   3   96
Scott Van Slyke   R    LF   25   .248 .307 .408 143 524  57 130  31   4  15  62  44 140   6   5   94
Angelo Songco     L    LF   23   .248 .297 .411 155 609  83 151  35   5  18  70  39 139   4   2   92
Trent Oeltjen     L    RF   29   .245 .306 .386 131 412  49 101  22   6   8  40  32 112  15   5   88
Marcus Thames     R    LF   35   .239 .294 .429  68 184  18  44   6   1   9  24  14  51   0   1   95
Juan Uribe        R    3B   32   .249 .300 .401 110 374  41  93  20   2  11  51  25  75   2   1   90
Tony Gwynn        L    LF   29   .258 .319 .350 137 380  52  98  14   6   3  27  34  64  20   6   84
Jerry Hairston    R    SS   36   .259 .319 .373 112 351  48  91  18   2   6  37  27  47   6   4   89
Ivan DeJesus      R    2B   25   .260 .321 .353 143 553  62 144  24   3   7  50  46 108   7   1   85
Dee Gordon        L    SS   24   .271 .310 .339 151 631  86 171  18  11   1  34  32 107  55  19   78
Adam Kennedy      L    2B   36   .258 .307 .362 119 392  45 101  21   1   6  42  26  58  11   3   83
Alex Castellanos  R    RF   25   .239 .292 .389 130 489  54 117  28   6  11  40  28 151  12   5   85
Blake Smith       L    RF   24   .230 .288 .406 117 461  52 106  25   1  18  51  36 149   2   3   88
Brian Cavazos-GalvR    1B   25   .255 .279 .402 142 537  64 137  30   5  13  57  10  92  20  13   84
Jay Gibbons       L    RF   35   .246 .298 .369  95 317  24  78  13   1   8  28  24  58   0   0   82
Mark Ellis        R    2B   35   .253 .303 .350 120 434  47 110  22   1   6  43  27  62  11   4   79
John Lindsey      R    1B   35   .230 .296 .372 102 352  30  81  18   1  10  39  23  94   0   0   82
A.J. Ellis        R    C    31   .240 .356 .317  87 271  23  65  11   2   2  24  44  48   0   2   87
Alfredo Silverio  R    CF   25   .250 .274 .406 140 557  69 139  31  10  12  52  20 122   8   8   84
Gorman Erickson   B    C    24   .234 .302 .354 113 401  41  94  21   3   7  44  38  82   3   1   79
Jamie Hoffmann    R    CF   27   .238 .296 .353 143 529  53 126  23   4  10  48  40 123  13   5   77
Jake Lemmerman    R    SS   23   .239 .303 .344 146 590  76 141  28   2  10  56  45 148   8   3   77
Justin Sellers    R    SS   26   .232 .308 .349 135 456  54 106  23   3   8  42  46 102   6   4   80
Casey Blake       R    3B   38   .234 .305 .360  90 308  39  72  16   1   7  39  29  85   1   3   82
Dioner Navarro    B    C    28   .235 .314 .327  79 226  21  53  10   1   3  25  25  40   1   0   76
Russ Mitchell     R    3B   27   .231 .289 .366 140 506  54 117  25   2  13  51  39 109   2   2   78
Tim Federowicz    R    C    24   .236 .289 .345 133 504  37 119  28   0   9  43  36 115   2   0   73
Aaron Miles       B    2B   35   .260 .297 .328 111 323  36  84  12   2   2  29  16  37   2   2   71
Eugenio Velez     B    2B   30   .251 .290 .348 113 374  44  94  16   4   4  34  19  72  17  12   74
Damaso Espino     R    C    29   .244 .285 .301  74 246  18  60   6   1   2  18  14  34   0   0   61
Matt Treanor      R    C    36   .220 .312 .301  60 173  17  38   5   0   3   9  20  41   1   2   69
Ivan Ochoa        R    SS   29   .226 .287 .296 100 314  34  71  12   2   2  20  23  67   8   4   60
Corey Smith       R    3B   30   .215 .253 .327 132 480  43 103  20   2  10  45  23 139   7   3   58
Juan Castro       R    2B   40   .225 .263 .282  29  71   4  16   2   1   0   3   4  15   0   0   50

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Matt Kemp                                                             AV/90   AV/72
Andre Ethier                                                                  FR/71
James Loney                   AV/71
Juan Rivera                  AV/106                           AV/92           FR/92
Jerry Sands                  AV/137          PO/138          AV/113  PO/115   AV/92
Scott Van Slyke              AV/144                          AV/122          AV/122
Angelo Songco                FR/119                          PO/127
Trent Oeltjen                                                 AV/99  PO/123  AV/105
Marcus Thames                                                PO/108          PO/115
Juan Uribe                            VG/79   VG/88   AV/70
Tony Gwynn                                                    EX/84  VG/100  VG/107
Jerry Hairston                        AV/96  AV/111   AV/92  VG/106   FR/92  VG/101
Ivan DeJesus                         AV/106  AV/116  AV/122
Dee Gordon                                           AV/156
Adam Kennedy                 AV/105  AV/106  AV/104
Alex Castellanos             AV/118  PO/113  PO/127          VG/153  FR/134  AV/153
Blake Smith                                                                  AV/133
Brian Cavazos-Galvez         AV/150                          FR/104  PO/132  FR/104
Jay Gibbons                  FR/101                           PO/93          PO/123
Mark Ellis                   VG/117   VG/54
John Lindsey                 FR/120                          PO/106
A.J. Ellis               VG
Alfredo Silverio                                              AV/91  FR/173   AV/90
Gorman Erickson          AV
Jamie Hoffmann                                               AV/114   FR/40  AV/114
Jake Lemmerman                                       AV/144
Justin Sellers                       AV/111   AV/98  AV/110                  AV/114
Dioner Navarro           AV  AV/119
Casey Blake                   AV/86           AV/81
Russ Mitchell                AV/117  FR/105   AV/82           AV/94           FR/90
Tim Federowicz           VG
Aaron Miles                           AV/77  FR/116  PO/107
Eugenio Velez                        FR/136  AV/117  PO/119  VG/146  AV/138  AV/143
Damaso Espino            VG  FR/100          PO/128
Matt Treanor             AV
Ivan Ochoa                           VG/110          AV/121
Corey Smith                  FR/167          PO/134
Juan Castro                          AV/122   AV/99   PO/93

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Clayton Kershaw   L      24     2.54    18    8   34   34   226.3  178   64   16   64  240   148
Hiroki Kuroda     R      37     3.70    11   10   26   26   160.3  157   66   17   39  120   102
Ted Lilly         L      36     3.73    11   10   27   27   166.7  152   69   24   40  137   101
Chad Billingsley  R      27     3.74    12   10   32   31   190.0  177   79   14   77  165   101
Vicente Padilla   R      34     3.88     4    4   17   13    69.7   65   30    8   22   53    97
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Rubby De La Rosa  R      23     3.96     6    6   22   17   104.7   96   46   10   51   93    95
Jon Garland       R      32     4.17     7    8   20   20   121.0  122   56   13   41   70    91
Chris Capuano     L      33     4.26     8    9   29   22   137.3  138   65   19   37  113    89
Nathan Eovaldi    R      22     4.30     6    7   26   22   119.3  119   57    9   62   83    88
Aaron Harang      R      34     4.31     8    9   22   22   133.7  141   64   16   40   96    88
John Ely          R      26     4.56     7    9   27   25   146.0  153   74   17   52   98    83
Allen Webster     R      22     4.95     7   11   26   24   129.0  141   71   13   62   86    76
Mike Parisi       R      29     4.98     2    3    7    7    34.3   36   19    4   18   21    76
Chris Withrow     R      23     5.33     4    8   25   25   120.0  127   71   14   77   95    71
Stephen Fife      R      25     5.35     5    9   24   23   116.0  140   69   14   49   60    71
Ian Snell         R      30     5.40     3    6   16   15    78.3   84   47   12   42   54    70
Michael Antonini  L      26     5.70     5   11   26   25   132.7  163   84   23   42   84    66

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Kenley Jansen     R      24     2.29     4    1   57    0    63.0   39   16    5   31   98   165
Hong-Chih Kuo     L      30     3.38     2    2   47    0    40.0   31   15    3   19   47   112
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Josh Lindblom     R      25     3.54     3    2   60    0    68.7   62   27    6   25   62   107
Javy Guerra       R      26     3.57     3    2   64    0    63.0   57   25    6   24   53   106
Scott Elbert      L      26     3.59     2    2   53    0    47.7   40   19    4   25   51   105
Matt Guerrier     R      33     3.66     4    3   69    0    64.0   58   26    6   21   47   103
Steven Ames       R      24     3.67     2    2   45    0    49.0   45   20    5   16   50   103
Ronald Belisario  R      29     4.04     2    2   50    0    49.0   46   22    5   21   38    93
Jon Link          R      28     4.18     2    2   52    1    64.7   62   30    6   31   53    90
Blake Hawksworth  R      29     4.19     5    5   47    7    77.3   77   36    9   26   54    90
Mike MacDougal    R      35     4.29     2    2   54    0    50.3   50   24    4   26   34    88
Roman Colon       R      32     4.41     2    2   28    0    32.7   33   16    4   12   21    86
Travis SchlichtingR      27     4.50     2    3   43    0    60.0   60   30    6   28   40    84
Ramon Troncoso    R      29     4.72     3    4   58    0    74.3   79   39    9   30   49    80
Wilkin De La Rosa L      27     5.76     2    5   26    7    54.7   60   35    7   38   37    66
Josh Wall         R      25     6.04     4    8   36   12    92.3  111   62   13   54   56    62

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Matt Kemp            .276  .336  .469  2421  9070  1414  2500   421    80   390  1428   821  2154   382   116
Andre Ethier         .277  .350  .446  1826  6583   900  1825   398    31   216   939   706  1177    35   113
Adam Kennedy         .270  .322  .380  1887  6241   763  1682   330    44    90   652   433   936   201    86
James Loney          .277  .335  .408  1714  6045   690  1677   337    33   129   872   527   772    69   100
Casey Blake          .260  .332  .432  1429  5063   714  1316   293    20   179   686   494  1186    37   102
Juan Rivera          .272  .321  .432  1337  4533   535  1232   230     7   160   678   331   580    25    99

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Clayton Kershaw       205  122    9    2.84  486  410     2878 2131  908  209  809 2850    133
Chad Billingsley      179  150    0    3.79  485  454     2774 2598 1167  216 1172 2426    103
Ted Lilly             174  161    0    4.16  473  448     2690 2515 1242  409  830 2250    102
Jon Garland           170  162    1    4.32  465  442     2757 2866 1323  333  938 1506    100
Aaron Harang          123  131    0    4.34  356  349     2145 2289 1033  286  631 1699     97
Hiroki Kuroda          83   86    0    3.68  215  213     1305 1278  534  133  312  963    105

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Matt Kemp         CF     77%  13%   7%   2%   0%        Duke Snider        Ben Chapman          Amos Otis
Andre Ethier      RF     24%  33%  19%  15%   9%       Lyle Overbay      Harold Baines       Paul O’Neill
James Loney       1B      3%  14%  19%  36%  28%         Sean Casey       Bruce Bochte  Broderick Perkins
Juan Rivera       LF      2%   8%  14%  26%  51%    Ramon Hernandez       Glenn Wilson    Willie Montanez
Jerry Sands       1B      1%   9%  14%  32%  44%        Mike Hocutt      Jody Lansford     Jesse Barfield
Scott Van Slyke   LF      1%   6%  11%  23%  60%         Jeff Baker        Jeff Conine       Brandon Moss
Angelo Songco     LF      2%   7%  10%  19%  62%        Randy Byers       Josh Kroeger      John Mayberry
Trent Oeltjen     RF      1%   6%  11%  22%  60%        Brant Brown     Michael Tucker       Keith Hughes
Marcus Thames     LF      2%   6%   8%  18%  67%     Eddie Williams      Alan Cockrell      Willie Horton
Juan Uribe        3B      2%   8%  15%  27%  48%        Earl Snyder         Jason Wood        Ricky Jones
Tony Gwynn        LF      2%   5%   7%  16%  71%      Cory Sullivan       Bruce Dostal         Greg Tubbs
Jerry Hairston    SS      9%  15%  27%  28%  20%          Billy Cox       Mike Bordick    Tony Graffanino
Ivan DeJesus      2B      5%   7%  13%  26%  49%         Todd Haney         Ron Oester         Neil Fiala
Dee Gordon        SS      7%  16%  29%  26%  23%    Garry Templeton      Sonny Jackson         Jeff Stone
Adam Kennedy      2B      7%   8%  14%  25%  46%        Jim Gantner         Eddie Mayo     Scott Fletcher
Alex Castellanos  RF      0%   3%   6%  15%  75%     Darrell Miller         Sammy Sosa       Scott Krause
Blake Smith       RF      1%   4%   6%  15%  74%         Steve Dunn       Eric Anthony     Chito Martinez
Brian Cavazos-Galv1B      0%   1%   2%  13%  84%       Steve Pegues         Hector Roa       Carlos Ponce
Jay Gibbons       RF      1%   2%   3%   9%  86%        Glenn Adams        Dann Howitt         Emil Brown
Mark Ellis        2B      3%   5%   8%  19%  64%         Pete Suder       Billy Martin       Jeff Cirillo
John Lindsey      1B      0%   1%   3%  13%  82%      Alan Cockrell      Willie Horton     Craig Paquette
A.J. Ellis        C       2%  13%  21%  34%  30%        Toby Atwell       J.D. Closser        Joe Astroth
Alfredo Silverio  CF      1%   3%  10%  25%  61%       Tyler Colvin        Jason Repko        Kenny Kelly
Gorman Erickson   C       3%  10%  16%  31%  40%        Matt Curtis       Chad Kreuter         Gregg Zaun
Jamie Hoffmann    CF      0%   2%   9%  24%  64%       Adam Shabala    Rikkert Faneyte          T.J. Bohn
Jake Lemmerman    SS      2%   5%  17%  30%  45%         Ross Jones      Daniel Mayora     Jhonny Peralta
Justin Sellers    SS      3%   7%  19%  31%  40%      Tony Schrager          Mike Neal    Josh Labandeira
Casey Blake       3B      1%   3%   7%  14%  75%      Charlie Hayes    Tony Graffanino      Shawn Gilbert
Dioner Navarro    C       2%   8%  15%  32%  44%         Alan Ashby       Chris Tremie     Bill Dobrolsky
Russ Mitchell     3B      1%   3%   6%  14%  76%      Seth Johnston         Tim Gillis         Jason Wood
Tim Federowicz    C       2%   5%   9%  27%  58%      Wyatt Toregas     Robert Machado        Pete Beeler
Aaron Miles       2B      0%   1%   2%   7%  91%         Pete Suder      Jose Vizcaino      Edgar Caceres
Eugenio Velez     2B      1%   1%   3%   9%  86%      Aaron Holbert            Bo Hart        Kevin Davis
Damaso Espino     C       0%   0%   1%   7%  92%       Hector Ortiz       Pedro Grifol       Chris Tremie
Matt Treanor      C       1%   3%   6%  17%  74%       Rick Ferrell        Brad Ausmus        Rick Cerone
Ivan Ochoa        SS      0%   0%   3%   9%  88%     Brandon Chaves        Ray Holbert         Brian Keck
Corey Smith       3B      0%   0%   0%   2%  98%        Jose Santos     Ignacio Suarez         Tom Nevers
Juan Castro       2B      0%   0%   0%   1%  99%          Jose Cruz       Miguel Cairo       Jeff Branson

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Kenley Jansen     RP      86%     9%     5%      Jose Valverde    Armando Benitez        Gregg Olson
Clayton Kershaw   SP      92%     3%     5%          Vida BlueFernando Valenzuela         Barry Zito
Hong-Chih Kuo     RP      40%    38%    22%         Rod Scurry         Will Ohman Jason Christiansen
Josh Lindblom     RP      29%    50%    21%         Bill Simas       Bert Roberge         Jeff Innis
Javy Guerra       RP      26%    46%    28%          Mel Rojas          David Lee    Felix Rodriguez
Scott Elbert      RP      24%    52%    24%    Armando Almanza      Darren Oliver          Tim Young
Matt Guerrier     RP      21%    51%    28%        Bryan Corey      Steve Schrenk        Terry Clark
Steven Ames       RP      26%    43%    30%      Antonio Osuna           Robb Nen       Chad Orvella
Ted Lilly         SP      28%    57%    16%         Ron Guidry        David Wells    Scott Sanderson
Hiroki Kuroda     SP      33%    53%    14%          Rick Reed         Jon Lieber       Kevin Tapani
Chad Billingsley  SP      32%    57%    11%        Darryl Kile       Matt Clement     Jason Jennings
Vicente Padilla   SP      28%    47%    24%     Eric Rasmussen        Pat Hentgen     Marvin Freeman
Rubby De La Rosa  SP      27%    49%    24%        J.D. Durbin        Paul Abbott     Jimmy Journell
Ronald Belisario  RP      12%    37%    52%      Matt Karchner        Gregg Olson          Mike Cook
Jon Garland       SP      16%    45%    39%  Jonathan Figueroa    Albert Williams         Jim Slaton
Jon Link          RP       6%    39%    55%       Roy Corcoran      Steve Wapnick       Craig Pippin
Blake Hawksworth  RP       4%    38%    58%    Steve Gajkowski      Brian Schmack     David Lundberg
Chris Capuano     SP      11%    46%    44%        Darrell May        David Wells        Jon Matlack
Mike MacDougal    RP      11%    33%    56%      Ernie Camacho          Hal White   Darrin Babineaux
Nathan Eovaldi    SP       8%    40%    52%          Rick Berg       Dick Ruthven    Ben Hendrickson
Aaron Harang      SP       5%    41%    54%       Charles Nagy        Ramon Ortiz         Ed Whitson
Roman Colon       RP      15%    25%    60%        Gallic Lung    Sassanid Tonsil    Gastroenteritis
Travis SchlichtingRP       3%    23%    74%    William Vaughan         Greg Bauer     Jamie Emiliano
John Ely          SP       2%    32%    66%        Jason Davis     Bronson Arroyo        Felipe Lira
Ramon Troncoso    RP       1%    15%    84%       Leo Estrella         Mark Small     Jim Czajkowski
Allen Webster     SP       1%    16%    84%        Dave Hooten      Rich Loiselle       Jim Converse
Mike Parisi       SP       8%    18%    74%    Carlos Chantres        Bryan Kelly        Ken Chenard
Chris Withrow     SP       0%     7%    93%     Doug Robertson        Matt Wright       Matt Bruback
Stephen Fife      SP       0%     5%    94%         Omar Ortiz    Mickey Callaway         Brian Bass
Ian Snell         SP       1%     9%    91%          Dan Smith        Chris Rojas      Jeff Robinson
Michael Antonini  SP       0%     1%    98%        Mike Ramsey       Evan MacLane         Bryan Ward
Wilkin De La Rosa RP       0%     3%    97%        Danny Young     Kevin Pickford         Jon Cannon
Josh Wall         RP       0%     0%   100%      Brian Abraham     Dallas Trahern    Travis Anderson

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Matt Kemp               19%      15%      47%       2%      12%      60%      27%      55%
Andre Ethier            17%      26%      13%       3%       0%       5%      13%       0%
James Loney             17%       6%       2%       8%       1%       0%       2%       1%
Juan Rivera              8%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Jerry Sands              1%       1%       4%       1%       2%       5%       1%       0%
Scott Van Slyke          1%       1%       1%       2%       3%       1%       0%       0%
Angelo Songco            1%       0%       3%      13%      11%       5%       1%       0%
Trent Oeltjen            2%       1%       1%       0%      13%       0%       0%       1%
Marcus Thames            4%       1%       7%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Juan Uribe               3%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Tony Gwynn               5%       3%       0%       0%      10%       0%       0%       9%
Jerry Hairston           7%       3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ivan DeJesus             4%       1%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Dee Gordon              11%       0%       0%       0%      57%       0%       0%      90%
Adam Kennedy             6%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       3%
Alex Castellanos         1%       0%       0%       1%      18%       0%       0%       1%
Blake Smith              0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%
Brian Cavazos-Galv       2%       0%       1%       2%       7%       1%       0%      11%
Jay Gibbons              2%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Mark Ellis               4%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       3%
John Lindsey             0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
A.J. Ellis               3%      25%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Alfredo Silverio         1%       0%       2%       3%      51%       1%       0%       0%
Gorman Erickson          1%       1%       1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Jamie Hoffmann           0%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       1%
Jake Lemmerman           0%       0%       1%       2%       0%       1%       0%       1%
Justin Sellers           0%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Casey Blake              1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Dioner Navarro           2%       5%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Russ Mitchell            0%       0%       1%       0%       1%       1%       0%       0%
Tim Federowicz           0%       0%       1%       2%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Aaron Miles              8%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Eugenio Velez            3%       0%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%       4%
Damaso Espino            3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Matt Treanor             2%       6%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ivan Ochoa               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Corey Smith              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Juan Castro              8%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Kenley Jansen             86%        95%       100%         0%        90%
Clayton Kershaw           83%        94%        92%        11%        96%
Hong-Chih Kuo             30%        70%        96%         1%        74%
Josh Lindblom             22%        67%        53%         2%        87%
Javy Guerra               20%        65%        31%         2%        78%
Scott Elbert              24%        69%        89%         0%        79%
Matt Guerrier             15%        58%         6%         9%        72%
Steven Ames               19%        62%        80%        11%        58%
Hiroki Kuroda              7%        57%         6%        42%        61%
Chad Billingsley           6%        61%        38%         0%        94%
Vicente Padilla            9%        49%        10%        15%        64%
Rubby De La Rosa           8%        47%        46%         0%        79%
Ronald Belisario           8%        40%        12%         1%        69%
Jon Garland                4%        34%         1%         5%        55%
Jon Link                   4%        38%        22%         0%        78%
Blake Hawksworth           4%        29%         2%         4%        57%
Chris Capuano              2%        28%        22%        21%        25%
Mike MacDougal            11%        37%         7%         1%        83%
Nathan Eovaldi             1%        21%         3%         0%        89%
Aaron Harang               1%        18%         2%         8%        45%
Roman Colon               10%        31%         6%        13%        69%
Travis Schlichting         2%        20%         2%         0%        71%
John Ely                   0%        10%         0%         1%        52%
Ramon Troncoso             1%        12%         1%         1%        45%
Allen Webster              0%         3%         1%         0%        63%
Mike Parisi                3%        13%         2%         1%        55%
Chris Withrow              0%         1%        13%         0%        49%
Stephen Fife               0%         1%         0%         0%        52%
Ian Snell                  0%         3%         3%         0%        28%
Michael Antonini           0%         0%         0%         5%         9%
Wilkin De La Rosa          0%         2%         3%         0%        41%
Josh Wall                  0%         0%         0%         0%        30%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive Twins
Giants
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 10, 2011 at 10:54 PM | 26 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: December 10, 2011 at 11:03 PM (#4012730)
2012 will suck, but I take solace knowing Ned will be fired as the new owner's first checkbox on the to-do list.
   2. Good cripple hitter Posted: December 10, 2011 at 11:20 PM (#4012746)
Can we get a Ted Lilly projection please? He appears in the career projections but nowhere else. I want to see if ZiPS thinks that my favourite presidential pitcher has a shot at a better year than 2011.
   3. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 10, 2011 at 11:30 PM (#4012757)
More reason to non-tender Loney.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: December 10, 2011 at 11:51 PM (#4012767)
Who the hell is Kenley Jansen? Jiminy! And his middle name is Geronimo.

That's a pathetic offense. The notion that a team would miss Rod Barajas* had never occurred to me before.

*Not a shot at Barajas who has been perfectly OK for his career, just fungible.
   5. Rays&Sox; Posted: December 11, 2011 at 12:19 AM (#4012784)
Lilly's career projection is very close to what he's put up so far. Looks like ZiPS either calls for a very good year or two before the end or a VERY gradual fade over his final 130 starts.
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 11, 2011 at 12:23 AM (#4012785)
Lilly's in there now - ZiPS has Lilly going 56-61 with an ERA+ of 90 the rest of the way (which brings his current 107 down to 101).
   7. Spivey Posted: December 11, 2011 at 12:25 AM (#4012786)
Clayton ############# Kershaw!
   8. Ron J Posted: December 11, 2011 at 12:32 AM (#4012790)
Dan what do you mean Treanor was never any good? His top comp is a Hall of Famer!

And Vida Blue and Rod Scurry as top comps! You're predicting prison for Kershaw and worse Kuo?
   9. Wozzyck Posted: December 11, 2011 at 12:46 AM (#4012804)
Thanks for adding Lilly in there, but I think the Ks are off (70 in 166.7 IP)
   10. Tripon Posted: December 11, 2011 at 12:49 AM (#4012807)
I really hate Ned Colletti.
   11. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 11, 2011 at 12:59 AM (#4012809)
Oops, tha was Garland's HR/BB/K.
   12. Rays&Sox; Posted: December 11, 2011 at 01:46 AM (#4012829)
The career projection has Lilly at 174-161, he's 125-110 right now. Maybe I'm wrong but I'm getting 49-51 instead of 56-61.
   13. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: December 11, 2011 at 02:01 AM (#4012861)
Dan, could you post a projection for Shawn Tolleson? Like Steve Ames, he really dominated hi-A and AA (and low-A), and he should get a shot at some point next season.

Thanks.
   14. MM1f Posted: December 11, 2011 at 02:49 AM (#4012940)
How exactly does ZiPs figure that Mike Parisi has an 8% chance of being a "top" pitcher this year?
   15. JeffersJV Posted: December 11, 2011 at 02:57 AM (#4012951)
Since this is a nitpicky comment, I feel the need to preface it with this: awesome work as always, Dan.

I'm wondering, though, are ZiPs' predictions for Runs glitching this season? I ask because there's a guy with a .297 projected OBP and 4 steals (i.e., not likely a great baserunner) projected to score 100 runs in ~600 AB's. Last year's Dodgers had exactly 1 guy score more than 67 runs, and the guy with 67 had a .368 OBP in 487 AB's (Ethier). I noticed Liddi (.292 projected OBP) projected to score 110 in the Mariners ZiPs and assumed it was a typo that would get fixed in the final release, but after seeing Songco's projection here I thought I'd ask. If there's been discussion of this in previous threads and I'm just behind, I apologize. Just trying to do my part to keep ZiPs the best projection system out there!
   16. JeffersJV Posted: December 11, 2011 at 03:08 AM (#4012962)
Darryl Kile AND Matt Clement? Here's hoping Billingsley is paid up on his health and life insurance...
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 11, 2011 at 03:21 AM (#4012977)
I'll double-check the runs with an older build. Those do look high.

Maybe I'm wrong but I'm getting 49-51 instead of 56-61.

You are correct, was looking at a different thing.
   18. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 11, 2011 at 03:27 AM (#4012986)
How exactly does ZiPs figure that Mike Parisi has an 8% chance of being a "top" pitcher this year?

Given only 7 starts, he has a good chance to pitch with an ERA+ > approximately 110 over those starts.
   19. shoewizard Posted: December 11, 2011 at 03:29 AM (#4012989)
Kemp's BA looks awful low.
From the outside looking in, it looks like 2010 is getting weighted too heavily. But of course you don't change the weights for any one player. Up through and including 2010 he had a .285 career BA. His .324 last year brought his career avg up to .294. He's heading into his age 28 season and still running well.

I am sure ZIPS is taking into account many factors regarding balls in play type, BABIP on those balls in play, etc. His BABIP on GB was .316, career .294, and he actually had a higher GB BABIP in 2008. His FB BABIP was .174, and thats right in line with his .179 career avg and well below his career high in 2009. His LD BABIP is the one that looks a little out of whack....809 vs .739 for career...but there are a lot less LD of course, 90-100 per year, so we are only talking about 3-4 hits there. I guess if you whack off a few homers too, than you might get the avg under .285....

It just seems for a guy that hits the ball that hard all the time, and has a career .352 BABIP, the B.A. is over regressed by ZIPS.

In short...I'll take the over.
   20. shoewizard Posted: December 11, 2011 at 03:53 AM (#4013003)
OTOH....you have him about a .332 BABIP above, vs his career .352. 7 Hits difference, which if you gave back to him puts him at .292 vs. the .280 you project. The only time Kemp has had a BABIP lower than .345 was 2010. But .332 is not an unreasonable BABIP conclusion either.

Still....just doesn't look right.
   21. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: December 11, 2011 at 04:09 AM (#4013014)
TOLLESON!!!
   22. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 11, 2011 at 04:32 AM (#4013042)
I'll double-check the runs with an older build. Those do look high.

Yeah, there were some wrong R/RBI totals for scattered PCL/CAL league players. They're corrected here (and final spreadsheet) and will be correct here on out. Many thanks for the catch!
   23. Arne Olson Posted: December 12, 2011 at 02:39 AM (#4013690)
Before looking at the numbers, I would have sworn that Chad Billingsley would project to a noticeably better career than Ted Lilly.
   24. shoewizard Posted: December 12, 2011 at 03:09 PM (#4013861)
Thats a fairly unique career projection for Kershaw

Similar Innings, ERA+, Left Handers

Only two guys, Newhouser and Waddell
   25. Tuque Posted: December 15, 2011 at 08:06 PM (#4017199)
Ned Colletti is the new 2000-era Brian Sabean. Take one (or, well, in this case, two) great player(s) and fill out the rest of the team with old crap.
   26. Spahn Insane Posted: December 18, 2011 at 08:50 AM (#4018821)
Having grown up in the 80s, I like how Tony Gwynn, Jerry Hairston and Ivan DeJesus appear in order in the projections.

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