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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, December 06, 2011

2012 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota Twins

Not a lot of good news for the Twins in 2011.  ZiPS had them slipping significantly from 2010 and while they did just that, they more than exceeded the projected dropoff.  A lot to do with

it is Mauer and Morneau being injured, ineffective, or frequently both, a plot twist so bad that M. Night Shyamalan would disavow it.  For video game nerds out there (there’s a lot of

crossover), it’s almost Final Fantasy VIII plot twist-bad.

The Twins may not fully realize it, but they’re a team that’s headed for a rebuild as that with Morneau and Liriano shells of their former selves and without a second-tier of quality

players (Kubel and Cuddyer are unsigned), they’re not a competitive team unless they spend ridiculous amounts of money in the free agent market.  They’re not, so they aren’t.  They’re not

100 losses-bad, but the ceiling for 2012 isn’t all that high, even with some pleasant Morneau-related surprise.  While one would think that the trade of Kevin Slowey was the start of the

process, the Twins have also been operating under this ridiculous notion for more than a year that they have a starting pitcher surplus.

On the plus side, Miguel Sano and several lesser lights should move up through the system in the next year or two and aren’t projected here.  And ZiPS likes Liam Hendriks more than the rest

of the team, though that’s not exactly the highest praise in the world.

Next Up: Los Angeles Dodgers

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Joe Mauer         L    C    29   .302 .380 .432 121 447  67 135  26   1  10  61  56  50   1   2  120
Justin Morneau    L    1B   31   .272 .348 .456  98 371  49 101  24   1  14  60  43  66   0   0  116
Jason Kubel       L    RF   30   .265 .333 .445 128 456  55 121  24   2  18  74  46 100   1   1  109
Michael Cuddyer   R    RF   33   .269 .332 .430 136 521  72 140  28   4  16  68  47  91   8   2  106
Denard Span       L    CF   28   .273 .342 .367 124 502  72 137  19   8   4  41  50  72  19   5   93
Ryan Doumit       B    C    31   .256 .319 .404 102 332  35  85  17   1  10  42  27  66   1   1   95
Tsuyoshi Nishioka B    SS   27   .271 .327 .376 128 476  67 129  19   8   5  48  37  69  25  12   91
Alexi Casilla     B    2B   27   .261 .324 .361 111 352  52  92  16   5   3  31  31  50  14   5   86
Jamey Carroll     R    2B   38   .266 .341 .322 128 376  46 100  13   4   0  18  42  57   9   1   82
Danny Valencia    R    3B   27   .260 .305 .392 151 561  64 146  32   3  12  67  37 105   2   4   88
Ben Revere        L    CF   24   .276 .322 .325 147 569  73 157  13   6   1  39  34  58  40  14   77
Trevor Plouffe    R    SS   26   .244 .296 .398 142 525  70 128  28   4  15  56  36 115   4   5   87
Brian Dozier      R    SS   25   .254 .313 .353 153 607  85 154  28   7   6  55  47  91  15   9   81
Oswaldo Arcia     L    RF   21   .240 .274 .415 111 412  56  99  26   2  14  51  18 119   3   4   84
Chris Parmelee    L    1B   24   .243 .311 .357 156 588  66 143  28   3  11  68  58 131   1   2   81
Joe Benson        R    CF   24   .227 .308 .378 139 511  68 116  27   4  14  51  49 165  14  11   85
Luke Hughes       R    2B   27   .229 .288 .363  97 336  39  77  17   2   8  34  26  87   4   2   76
Rene Tosoni       L    RF   25   .223 .289 .343 114 399  44  89  18   3   8  43  31 111   4   4   71
Brian Dinkelman   L    RF   28   .233 .292 .310 144 546  55 127  28   1   4  42  39 111   7   3   64
Jason Repko       R    RF   31   .218 .282 .316 104 307  40  67  10   1   6  26  23  85  11   4   63
Jeremy Reed       L    RF   31   .235 .285 .321  89 234  21  55   9   1   3  15  16  41   3   2   65
Matt Tolbert      B    2B   30   .232 .283 .320 101 297  34  69  12   4   2  23  20  50   7   4   64
Rene Rivera       R    C    28   .222 .265 .342  75 243  21  54  14   0   5  25  13  62   0   0   64
Aaron Hicks       B    CF   22   .219 .306 .320 146 562  84 123  29   5   6  42  70 167  15  14   71
Pedro Florimon    B    SS   25   .232 .288 .320 138 491  53 114  22   3   5  50  35 146  15  11   65
Chase Lambin      B    3B   32   .222 .281 .328 132 463  42 103  20   4   7  40  33 130   2   4   65
Steve Holm        R    C    32   .214 .281 .308  67 201  21  43  11   1   2  20  17  48   0   1   61
Deibinson Romero  R    3B   25   .216 .276 .306 128 464  52 100  20   2   6  48  35 129   1   2   58
Drew Butera       R    C    28   .216 .263 .311  86 241  22  52  12   1   3  26  13  46   0   0   56
Toby Gardenhire   R    SS   29   .232 .273 .273  94 297  25  69   9   0   1  27  14  48   1   1   49

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Joe Mauer                AV  AV/100
Justin Morneau                VG/60
Jason Kubel                                                   FR/92           FR/93
Michael Cuddyer               AV/91   PO/98  PO/100                  PO/114   FR/96
Denard Span                                                   VG/99   VG/69  VG/114
Ryan Doumit              FR  FR/132                                          FR/129
Tsuyoshi Nishioka                    FR/116          FR/107
Alexi Casilla                        AV/106  AV/113  VG/101
Jamey Carroll                         AV/67  VG/101   AV/65  AV/112          AV/113
Danny Valencia                                FR/94
Ben Revere                                                   VG/112  VG/120  VG/106
Trevor Plouffe               AV/109  FR/106  AV/108  AV/118   AV/95           AV/95
Brian Dozier                         AV/104  AV/102  FR/103
Oswaldo Arcia                                                                AV/115
Chris Parmelee               FR/126                                          FR/129
Joe Benson                                                   VG/120  VG/109  VG/111
Luke Hughes                   VG/94   FR/99  FR/117
Rene Tosoni                  FR/118                          FR/112  PO/155  FR/118
Brian Dinkelman                      FR/102                   AV/91           AV/79
Jason Repko                                                   VG/92   AV/76   VG/72
Jeremy Reed                  VG/115                           AV/94   AV/84  AV/101
Matt Tolbert                          FR/87   VG/95  PO/108   AV/94  FR/117   FR/94
Aaron Hicks                                                          AV/186   VG/95
Pedro Florimon                       AV/143          AV/143
Chase Lambin                 AV/107   AV/99  FR/144  FR/114  FR/101          FR/103
Steve Holm               AV                  PO/119
Deibinson Romero             FR/108          FR/133
Drew Butera              VG
Toby Gardenhire          FR  VG/112  AV/117  AV/114  FR/115  VG/102          AV/119
Rene Rivera              VG                  FR/117

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Scott Baker       R      30     3.91    10    8   27   26   158.7  157   69   19   39  136   107
Francisco Liriano L      28     4.24    10   10   27   25   148.7  143   70   14   66  137    99
Liam Hendriks     R      23     4.31     9    9   26   25   137.7  155   66   11   31   81    97
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Carl Pavano       R      36     4.53    10   10   27   27   177.0  201   89   21   33   97    93
Brian Duensing    L      29     4.54     8    9   36   20   138.7  154   70   15   44   88    92
Nick Blackburn    R      30     4.96     8   10   25   25   147.0  173   81   20   43   73    85
Matt Maloney      L      28     4.96     7    9   25   21   123.3  146   68   16   27   72    85
Kyle Gibson       R      24     5.09     6    8   22   22   115.0  135   65   13   39   71    82
Anthony Swarzak   R      26     5.34     6    9   27   20   121.3  147   72   15   38   61    79
Jeff Manship      R      27     5.42     4    6   24   14    84.7  105   51   11   27   47    77
Scott Diamond     L      25     5.64     7   11   26   26   140.3  185   88   13   56   72    74
Eric Hacker       R      29     6.29     6   13   27   25   131.7  177   92   17   58   67    67
Andrew Baldwin    R      29     6.45     5   12   27   19   120.0  159   86   23   38   60    65
Deolis Guerra     R      23     6.96     4   10   31   15    97.0  131   75   19   43   55    60

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Glen Perkins      L      29     4.08     4    3   67    0    64.0   65   29    6   23   53   103
Jose Mijares      L      27     4.38     1    1   60    0    49.3   50   24    5   23   38    96
Chuck James       L      30     4.48     3    4   37    3    62.3   65   31    6   26   46    94
Matt Capps        R      28     4.48     5    5   67    0    64.3   70   32    8   17   42    94
Esmerling Vasquez R      28     4.68     3    3   57    0    57.7   57   30    6   34   46    90
Anthony Slama     R      28     4.75     3    3   46    0    53.0   50   28    6   35   49    88
Alex Burnett      R      24     4.87     3    4   66    0    61.0   67   33    6   25   39    86
Jeff Gray         R      30     5.04     1    2   38    0    50.0   58   28    5   19   25    83
Kyle Waldrop      R      26     5.06     4    6   59    0    83.7  102   47    8   28   36    83
Lester Oliveros   R      24     5.25     2    3   51    0    58.3   62   34    7   35   48    80
Phil Dumatrait    L      30     5.50     1    2   40    0    37.7   42   23    5   23   23    76
Jim Hoey          R      29     5.74     3    4   48    0    53.3   59   34    7   38   38    73
Carlos Gutierrez  R      25     5.81     3    5   38    8    83.7  102   54    8   48   45    72
Cole DeVries      R      27     5.92     3    5   46    3    83.7  105   55   12   34   48    71
Tyler Robertson   L      24     6.48     5   10   44   11   101.3  134   73   15   50   56    65

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Joe Mauer            .302  .375  .427  2102  7853  1126  2372   437    26   165  1046   930   803    53   117
Michael Cuddyer      .268  .334  .436  1763  6483   914  1736   362    51   209   876   603  1177    83   105
Justin Morneau       .274  .345  .471  1604  6000   817  1645   370    20   256  1037   651   983     4   117
Denard Span          .272  .342  .368  1357  5474   786  1489   204    78    55   486   547   711   173    93
Jason Kubel          .264  .327  .437  1499  5245   628  1384   277    25   194   826   498  1050    15   105
Ryan Doumit          .260  .319  .407  1268  4119   440  1071   228    11   119   516   299   741    18    95
Jamey Carroll        .274  .350  .341  1344  3803   566  1043   149    34    12   253   423   594    81    84
Alexi Casilla        .255  .315  .345  1065  3364   474   858   152    36    26   294   286   451   114    80

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Carl Pavano           151  153    0    4.51  418  401     2541 2854 1273  301  573 1518     94
Scott Baker           136  115    0    4.23  368  357     2155 2219 1014  281  532 1762     99
Francisco Liriano     132  124    1    4.34  364  328     1935 1850  933  192  847 1827     97
Nick Blackburn         77   95    0    4.83  249  238     1433 1711  769  196  395  694     86

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Joe Mauer         C      73%  24%   4%   1%   0%      Smoky Burgess     Thurman Munson    Mickey Cochrane
Justin Morneau    1B     10%  35%  30%  22%   5%         Greg Brock      Paul Sorrento      Gordy Coleman
Jason Kubel       RF      7%  23%  32%  27%  13%      Geoff Jenkins      Paul Sorrento      Brian Daubach
Michael Cuddyer   RF      8%  20%  28%  31%  14%     Fernando Tatis         Hoot Evers       Hector Lopez
Denard Span       CF      7%  15%  42%  29%   8%       Brett Butler       Steve Finley       Eddie Milner
Ryan Doumit       C       7%  22%  38%  26%   8%         Alan Ashby    Ramon Hernandez     Robert Machado
Tsuyoshi Nishioka SS      7%  17%  37%  31%  10%    Cristian Guzman   Mickey Morandini    Wilton Guerrero
Alexi Casilla     2B      5%   7%  19%  31%  39%     Nelson Liriano           Tom Herr       Ryan Theriot
Jamey Carroll     2B      0%   0%   0%   0% 100%    Willie Randolph      Johnny Temple      Randy Velarde
Danny Valencia    3B      1%   4%   9%  24%  63%    Patrick Sellers  Christian Colonel       Jason Alfaro
Ben Revere        CF      2%   3%  15%  34%  47%        Juan Pierre        Jason Tyner           Rudy Law
Trevor Plouffe    SS      4%   8%  25%  48%  16%         Simon Pond     Steve Buechele          Mike Bell
Brian Dozier      SS      1%   4%  20%  53%  24%         Spike Owen     Dick Schofield     Jason Bartlett
Oswaldo Arcia     RF      0%   0%   5%   7%  89%       Keith Hughes          Mark Ryal        Doug Frobel
Chris Parmelee    1B      0%   0%   1%  11%  88%        Juan Tejeda       Andy Barkett     Brett Roneberg
Joe Benson        CF      1%   2%  14%  39%  45%      Alonzo Powell      Tydus Meadows         Jack Voigt
Luke Hughes       2B      2%   3%   4%  10%  83%          Mike Neal     Andujar Cedeno         Tony Woods
Rene Tosoni       RF      0%   0%   1%   4%  96%       Willie Tatum       Jon HamiltonGarrick Haltiwanger
Brian Dinkelman   RF      0%   0%   0%   0% 100%       Ron Witmeyer          Ryan Bear     Chip Childress
Jason Repko       RF      0%   0%   1%   3%  97%        Mike Murphy     Manny Martinez         Mike Kelly
Jeremy Reed       RF      0%   0%   0%   0% 100%       Marc Sagmoen      Alan Cockrell          Ron Jones
Matt Tolbert      2B      0%   1%   1%   2%  97%        Pat Listach        Kevin Davis     Pablo Martinez
Rene Rivera       C       1%   1%   1%  10%  87%        Chris Curry   Brandon Marsters       Alvin Colina
Aaron Hicks       CF      0%   0%   2%   5%  94%        Kory DeHaan     Kinnis Pledger          Ryan Lane
Pedro Florimon    SS      1%   1%   3%   6%  90%         Ross Jones   Curtis Wilkerson   Buddy Biancalana
Chase Lambin      3B      0%   0%   0%   3%  97%         Dave McKay      Joe DeMaestri         Tim Hulett
Steve Holm        C       0%   0%   2%   3%  96%       Chad Moeller       Henry Blanco  George Mitterwald
Deibinson Romero  3B      0%   0%   0%   2%  99%     Travis Metcalf        Randy Blood       Ryan Stegall
Drew Butera       C       0%   1%   1%   4%  96%          Mike Ryan          Tom Nieto        Dave Ullery
Toby Gardenhire   SS      0%   0%   0%   0% 100%Jonathan Schuerholz      Craig Griffey        Bill Bavasi

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Scott Baker       SP      46%    49%     5%     Javier Vazquez         Jon Lieber      Virgil Trucks
Glen Perkins      RP      19%    56%    25%      Chuck McElroy    Vic Darensbourg          Ed Olwine
Francisco Liriano SP      29%    57%    14%      Mickey Mahler          Rich Hill   Dennis Rasmussen
Liam Hendriks     SP      22%    59%    19%  Larry Christenson        Joe Blanton       Marty Janzen
Jose Mijares      RP      13%    44%    43%     Ricardo Jordan      Chris Marchok      Felix Heredia
Chuck James       RP       8%    40%    52%        Aaron Fultz    Dean Hartgraves    Kevin Lovingier
Matt Capps        RP       9%    39%    52%      Joseph Haines           Jeff Tam   Scott Winchester
Carl Pavano       SP      16%    46%    38%          Paul Byrd       Dick Donovan    Bill Gullickson
Brian Duensing    SP      12%    56%    32%        John Halama       Billy Traber     Lee Guetterman
Esmerling Vasquez RP       6%    37%    58%        Kevin Barry       Calvin Jones       Roy Corcoran
Anthony Slama     RP       5%    37%    59%       Calvin Jones      Johnny Ruffin       Bo Donaldson
Alex Burnett      RP       3%    33%    64%       Jeremy Wedel         Shawn Hill         Mark Dewey
Nick Blackburn    SP       5%    37%    58%        Dick Bosman      Ismael Valdez    Dennis Martinez
Matt Maloney      SP       5%    39%    56%       Mike Sirotka        Mike Maroth        Scott Downs
Jeff Gray         RP       5%    27%    68%        Steve Comer      Jason Karnuth         Jose Silva
Kyle Waldrop      RP       1%    21%    78%       Clay Carroll        Reid Santos        Mike Draper
Kyle Gibson       SP       2%    34%    64%    Chien-Ming Wang        Bill Fulton       Sergio Mitre
Lester Oliveros   RP       1%    18%    80%     Chris Schroder          Ken Giard     Jeff Heathcock
Anthony Swarzak   SP       1%    22%    77%       Mike Lincoln       Eddie Bonine    Vicente Bonilla
Jeff Manship      SP       1%    18%    80%       Mark Johnson       Kevin Jarvis    Jeff Farnsworth
Phil Dumatrait    RP       3%    15%    82%      Scott Watkins       Joey Eischen         Dick Selma
Scott Diamond     SP       0%     8%    92%        Wes Whisler       Jeff Johnson         Jeff Mutis
Jim Hoey          RP       0%     9%    91%       James Warden       Maximo Nunez      Kenny Marrero
Carlos Gutierrez  RP       0%     5%    95%     Barry Hertzler     Don Timberlake     Dallas Trahern
Cole DeVries      RP       0%     4%    96%       Nick McCurdy     Ron Rightnowar        Chris Mears
Eric Hacker       SP       0%     2%    98%  Dennis Tankersley        John Snyder        Jim Magrane
Andrew Baldwin    SP       0%     1%    98%        Kris Wilson        Felipe Lira    Steve Ellsworth
Tyler Robertson   RP       0%     0%   100%       Jeff Granger         Kevin King        Jim Bullard
Deolis Guerra     SP       0%     0%   100%           Ken Ryan       Andy Croghan     William Cooper

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Joe Mauer               56%      57%       4%       0%       0%       0%       8%       0%
Justin Morneau           6%      10%      23%       0%       0%       0%       7%       0%
Jason Kubel              2%       3%       7%       0%       0%       1%       2%       0%
Michael Cuddyer          3%       3%       5%       0%       2%       2%       1%       1%
Denard Span              4%       2%       1%       0%      36%       0%       0%       6%
Ryan Doumit              1%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Tsuyoshi Nishioka        4%       1%       1%       0%      30%       0%       0%      19%
Alexi Casilla            2%       2%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       2%
Jamey Carroll            0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Danny Valencia           1%       0%       1%       2%       2%       1%       1%       0%
Ben Revere               5%       1%       0%       0%      12%       0%       0%      86%
Trevor Plouffe           0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Brian Dozier             0%       0%       0%       0%      18%       0%       0%       2%
Oswaldo Arcia            0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Parmelee           0%       1%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Joe Benson               0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       2%
Luke Hughes              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Rene Tosoni              0%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Brian Dinkelman          0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Jason Repko              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Jeremy Reed              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Matt Tolbert             0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Rene Rivera              0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Aaron Hicks              0%       1%       0%       1%       8%       0%       0%       2%
Pedro Florimon           0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       3%
Chase Lambin             0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Steve Holm               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Deibinson Romero         0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Drew Butera              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Toby Gardenhire          0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Scott Baker               13%        73%        35%        35%        51%
Glen Perkins              19%        69%        27%         4%        79%
Francisco Liriano          5%        52%        59%         0%        81%
Liam Hendriks              3%        46%         0%        59%        86%
Jose Mijares               9%        49%        12%         0%        75%
Chuck James                5%        41%         7%         1%        72%
Matt Capps                 6%        41%         2%        33%        45%
Carl Pavano                4%        33%         1%        80%        50%
Brian Duensing             2%        34%         1%         7%        60%
Esmerling Vasquez          4%        35%        22%         0%        68%
Anthony Slama              5%        27%        58%         0%        54%
Alex Burnett               3%        23%         1%         1%        73%
Nick Blackburn             0%        15%         1%        12%        33%
Matt Maloney               1%        14%         0%        56%        38%
Jeff Gray                  5%        25%         0%         5%        77%
Kyle Waldrop               1%        14%         0%         7%        75%
Kyle Gibson                0%         8%         0%         3%        55%
Lester Oliveros            1%        15%        23%         0%        43%
Anthony Swarzak            0%         4%         0%         5%        49%
Jeff Manship               0%         6%         0%         9%        39%
Phil Dumatrait             2%        13%         2%         0%        44%
Scott Diamond              0%         1%         0%         0%        84%
Jim Hoey                   0%         4%         5%         0%        52%
Carlos Gutierrez           0%         3%         0%         0%        69%
Cole DeVries               0%         2%         0%         1%        27%
Eric Hacker                0%         0%         0%         0%        41%
Andrew Baldwin             0%         1%         0%         7%         3%
Tyler Robertson            0%         0%         0%         0%        19%
Deolis Guerra              0%         0%         0%         0%         6%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive Giants
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 06, 2011 at 10:02 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Craig in MN Posted: December 06, 2011 at 10:58 PM (#4008558)
Toby Gardenhire SS 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%Jonathan Schuerholz Craig Griffey Bill Bavasi


Well, I found one thing to make me smile in these projections.
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 06, 2011 at 11:03 PM (#4008566)
Ack! That pitching is horrific. One good SP, and zero above avg. RP.
   3. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 06, 2011 at 11:06 PM (#4008571)
Best three projected relievers are all lefties? That's got to be unusual...
   4. Craig in MN Posted: December 06, 2011 at 11:17 PM (#4008583)
Actually, Duensing is going to be a reliever, and should be in that general range too. Of course Chuck James won't be in the organization, so that evens out.
   5. Spivey Posted: December 06, 2011 at 11:22 PM (#4008590)
Not a single reliever is projected to have an above average ERA+. That is ridiculous.
   6. Davo Dozier Posted: December 06, 2011 at 11:23 PM (#4008591)
I believe I'm speaking for everyone when I ask Who the #### is Liam Hendriks?
   7. Nasty Nate Posted: December 06, 2011 at 11:37 PM (#4008605)
Deolis Guerra R 23 6.96


Are he and his near-7 ERA projection the last vestiges of the putrid haul the Twins received for Santana? Or am I think of another guy?
   8. DL from MN Posted: December 06, 2011 at 11:47 PM (#4008620)
Liam Hendriks is a control pitcher from Australia. Yes, Deolis Guerra was the "prize" in the Santana deal.

That projection seems incredibly optimistic for Nishioka.
   9. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 06, 2011 at 11:58 PM (#4008630)
I believe I'm speaking for everyone when I ask Who the #### is Liam Hendriks?


Isn't he the guy who played Bishop in all the "Aliens" movies?
   10. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: December 07, 2011 at 12:03 AM (#4008635)
it's almost Final Fantasy VIII plot twist-bad.


Mario rip-off plot twists aside, VIII still had the best gameplay. Also, Rinoa is hotter than Tifa.
   11. BobbyS Posted: December 07, 2011 at 12:28 AM (#4008655)
Are he and his near-7 ERA projection the last vestiges of the putrid haul the Twins received for Santana? Or am I think of another guy?

Yes, Deolis Guerra was the "prize" in the Santana deal.


He was stellar once they moved him to the pen... Not that it would show here, or that it constitutes any real prize for Johan
   12. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: December 07, 2011 at 12:52 AM (#4008670)
Not that it would show here, or that it constitutes any real prize for Johan


The prize for Johan is not paying him > 100m to not pitch.
   13. Nasty Nate Posted: December 07, 2011 at 01:02 AM (#4008678)
The prize for Johan is not paying him > 100m to not pitch.


Door #3 was one year of peak Johan at $13 million (in a year where instead the Twins finished in 2nd by one game) and then some draft picks...
   14. Travolta19 Posted: December 07, 2011 at 01:02 AM (#4008679)
I believe I'm speaking for everyone when I ask Who the #### is Liam Hendriks?


You're not speaking for anyone who follows prospects that closely...
   15. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 07, 2011 at 01:25 AM (#4008693)
Heh. Mauer has a better chance of being "excellent" than every other offensive player in the organizaton combined.
   16. JJ1986 Posted: December 07, 2011 at 01:30 AM (#4008697)
Tsuyoshi Nishioka B    SS   27   .271 .327 .376 128 476  67 129  19   8   5  48  37  69  25  12   91 


I'm taking the under.
   17. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 07, 2011 at 01:50 AM (#4008717)
Chuck James is *30*?

Toby Gardenhire SS 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%Jonathan Schuerholz Craig Griffey Bill Bavasi

I see Marc Sullivan as his upside, personally.
   18. plink Posted: December 07, 2011 at 02:03 AM (#4008732)
Was there a Slowey projection before the trade?
   19. Banta Posted: December 07, 2011 at 02:07 AM (#4008736)
VIII still had the best gameplay

If you could skip the GF animation! I mean, once you got more powerful, you didn't need to use the GFs as much, but christ, it was terrible before that. Talk about the need for some time compression, am I right??
   20. WillYoung Posted: December 07, 2011 at 02:11 AM (#4008741)
Zips is projecting a huge year from Drew Butera.
   21. Juilin Sandar to Conkling Speedwell (Arjun) Posted: December 07, 2011 at 03:41 AM (#4008785)
I like the name "Jeff Manship".
   22. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 07, 2011 at 05:42 AM (#4008934)
What makes you so sure this team isn't 100 losses bad?
   23. Boxkutter Posted: December 07, 2011 at 08:44 AM (#4009019)

You're not speaking for anyone who follows prospects that closely...


Pretty much what I was thinking. I have been tracking him since midway through the 2010 season when he was putting up a stellar ERA in the minors. That caught my attention so I looked deeper and liked what I saw. Had some rough patches this year, but still pitched well so I drafted him. With decent numbers like that, he may very well be my #5 SP in 2012.
   24. Walt Davis Posted: December 07, 2011 at 10:40 AM (#4009030)
Garrick Haltiwanger

Now there's a name!

And surely some relation to Russ Haltiwanger.
   25. morineko Posted: December 07, 2011 at 02:57 PM (#4009071)
So apparently ZiPS also believes that Cole DeVries was having an outlier of a 2011 season.
   26. Craig in MN Posted: December 07, 2011 at 05:15 PM (#4009181)
I'm surprised that ZIPs has Morneau with a 0% chance of hitting 30 HRs. He's done that 3 of 6 years, and was on pace for that in 2010. Injuries are obviously (and rightly) killing him, but it's got him with 23% of SLG > .500. You'd think there's enough of a chance within that where stays healthy enough to get to 30HRs.
   27. bfan Posted: December 07, 2011 at 06:21 PM (#4009275)
Without the new stadium, I would put this team back on the list of potential teams to contract, to get down to 30 teams. At least all of the non-winning small market teams won't get beat over the head by the Twins example (at least for a few years).
   28. Shalimar Posted: December 08, 2011 at 07:19 PM (#4010452)
I like the name "Jeff Manship".

I didn't realize the Twins were recruiting from the Stallion Studios softball team.
   29. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 08, 2011 at 07:28 PM (#4010462)
I believe Cole DeVries and Scott Diamond were also on that team.
   30. Walt Davis Posted: December 10, 2011 at 11:55 PM (#4012771)
I'm surprised that ZIPs has Morneau with a 0% chance of hitting 30 HRs. He's done that 3 of 6 years, and was on pace for that in 2010. Injuries are obviously (and rightly) killing him, but it's got him with 23% of SLG > .500. You'd think there's enough of a chance within that where stays healthy enough to get to 30HRs.

I believe those probabilities are based on the assumed playing time. I think we can agree that 30 HR in 371 AB would be mighty impressive.
   31. A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo Posted: February 17, 2012 at 09:53 PM (#4063826)
Can we please get a Josh Willingham projection? He wasn't listed on the A's.

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