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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, November 03, 2011

2012 ZIPS Projections - New York Mets

Obviously not a great year for the Mets at 77-85, but if you just went by the tenor of the media reports, thanks to the Wilpon/Madoff turmoil, you’d think the Mets played like the 1993

edition that went 59-103.  The team spent most of the year, playing “sort of OK-ish” and while never really in any kind of risk of being relevant, weren’t Astrotastic horrible.

The pitching staff is interesting in that while it was one of the worst in the league (the 89 ERA+ was 15th of 16 teams in the National League), it was not because of some notably terrible

pitching, but almost an entire staff of guys that had recognizable names, were consistently below-average, but also consistently above replacement level.  Perhaps best described as the

Sterling Hitchcock Rock ‘n’ Fun Zone.  Beltran is gone from the offense, Reyes is likely to be, and Wright isn’t the player he was at his best, so the team’s pitching has to get a good bit

better as there’s less room to count on the front-line talent to score runs.

The offense is now short on major stars, but they should at least be respectable everywhere, though that won’t be enough to make the team interesting.  Don’t get depressed by the Wilmer

Flores projection, he was just 19 and ZiPS has him with OPS+ around 100 for a bunch of years in his prime.

It’s still hard to see what direction the organization goes, thanks to the uncertainty resulting from the Madoff/Wilpon/Picard shuffle.  With the Dodgers being sold, the Mets return to

having the league’s most embarrassing ownership, but in the long-term, they’re still a team with lots of potential revenue streams to tap as they rebuild and Sandy Alderson is as good as

they get.  Alderson does have an uphill battle in the short-term, but he knew going in that the Mets weren’t rainbow anything, let alone sunshine and lollipops.

Next Up: Detroit Tigers

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Jose Reyes        B    SS   29   .297 .346 .459 118 499  77 148  27  12  10  48  38  47  33   8  118
David Wright      R    3B   29   .269 .351 .447 136 517  77 139  31   2  19  78  66 127  20   7  116
Ike Davis         L    1B   25   .255 .338 .449  99 361  47  92  21   2  15  51  46 106   1   1  113
Dan Murphy        L    1B   27   .286 .334 .432 106 370  42 106  24   3   8  52  26  46   5   3  108
Jason Bay         R    LF   33   .249 .344 .419 119 430  60 107  19   3  16  63  61 113   9   1  107
Lucas Duda        L    RF   26   .256 .338 .431 146 504  58 129  31   3  17  70  57 124   1   1  108
Angel Pagan       B    CF   30   .269 .322 .403 122 472  64 127  25   7   8  55  38  71  25   8   97
Scott Hairston    R    RF   32   .246 .308 .423  97 260  32  64  14   1  10  36  20  59   5   1   97
Nick Evans        R    1B   26   .253 .310 .411 144 509  62 129  29   3  15  59  41 125   2   1   95
Josh Thole        L    C    25   .271 .342 .363 132 421  36 114  23   2   4  46  44  55   2   2   93
Justin Turner     R    2B   27   .265 .327 .372 129 479  60 127  29   2   6  50  37  68   6   3   91
Mike Baxter       L    RF   27   .248 .319 .392 111 383  50  95  19   6   8  46  37  82   8   5   93
Kirk Nieuwenhuis  L    CF   24   .238 .304 .398 109 437  64 104  29   4  11  38  39 139   9   5   90
Fernando Martinez L    RF   23   .242 .303 .389  98 339  39  82  17   0  11  34  22  91   1   1   88
Willie Harris     L    LF   34   .228 .336 .354 124 254  34  58  10   2   6  27  38  61   6   3   89
Ruben Tejada      R    SS   22   .259 .329 .339 156 528  55 137  25   4   3  46  47  82   8   4   83
Zach Lutz         R    3B   26   .233 .313 .367  81 300  32  70  13   0   9  34  32  95   0   1   85
Val Pascucci      R    1B   33   .215 .309 .370 119 400  40  86  18   1  14  52  53 138   1   1   85
Josh Satin        R    2B   27   .238 .313 .359 142 516  58 123  31   2   9  53  54 160   1   4   83
Ronny Paulino     R    C    31   .254 .300 .346  89 280  24  71  14   0   4  28  20  51   0   0   76
Jason Botts       B    LF   31   .223 .303 .350  61 197  18  44  11   1   4  20  23  54   0   0   78
Reese Havens      L    2B   25   .221 .300 .363  69 262  31  58  12   2   7  25  27  83   1   2   80
Russ Adams        L    3B   31   .235 .294 .357  67 230  28  54  11   1   5  26  18  46   3   2   77
Cory Vaughn       R    RF   23   .222 .306 .367 128 469  48 104  18   4  14  52  44 139   9  10   83
Jason Pridie      L    CF   28   .237 .281 .351 105 342  39  81  13   4   6  31  21  85  12   4   72
Jordany Valdespin L    SS   24   .251 .284 .371 124 491  52 123  24   4   9  43  19 107  22  16   77
Luis Figueroa     B    SS   38   .263 .301 .336 110 422  40 111  19   3   2  32  23  37   2   4   74
Wilmer Flores     R    SS   20   .247 .280 .363 156 631  55 156  31   3  12  82  26 107   2   4   74
Matt den Dekker   L    CF   24   .220 .284 .358 109 427  59  94  20   6   9  43  33 148  13   7   74
Bubba Bell        L    RF   29   .240 .292 .327 101 333  32  80  15   1   4  31  24  64   8   3   69
Sean Ratliff      R    CF   25   .223 .264 .370 107 413  45  92  19   3  12  43  22 150   6   5   71
Fernando Perez    B    CF   29   .215 .277 .287 109 362  48  78  11   3   3  23  30 103  19   5   55
Mike Nickeas      R    C    29   .225 .295 .295  75 227  16  51  10   0   2  26  21  46   0   1   62
Chin-lung Hu      R    SS   28   .224 .265 .290  93 290  32  65   9   2   2  19  15  52   7   2   52
Jonathan Malo     R    2B   28   .203 .262 .275 107 305  34  62  10   3   2  20  22  81   4   2   47
Raul Chavez       R    C    39   .216 .236 .278  71 227  12  49  11   0   1  20   6  35   0   0   40

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Jose Reyes                                            AV/94
David Wright                                 FR/119
Ike Davis                    VG/103                                          FR/119
Dan Murphy                   VG/123  FR/117                  FR/122
Jason Bay                                                     FR/46
Lucas Duda                    AV/87                          FR/118          PO/105
Angel Pagan                                                   VG/94  AV/146   VG/85
Scott Hairston                                                AV/93  FR/112  FR/112
Nick Evans                    AV/76           FR/97           AV/95           FR/91
Josh Thole               FR  FR/119
Justin Turner                        FR/130  AV/106  PO/116
Mike Baxter                   FR/94          PO/118           FR/96  PO/116   FR/81
Kirk Nieuwenhuis             AV/119                                  FR/114  AV/117
Fernando Martinez                                            VG/106  FR/109  VG/101
Willie Harris                        FR/104  FR/105           AV/85   FR/89  AV/100
Ruben Tejada                         VG/129          VG/109
Zach Lutz                    FR/106          FR/109
Val Pascucci                 AV/157                                           PO/91
Josh Satin                   AV/105  FR/117  FR/112
Ronny Paulino            FR
Jason Botts                  AV/128                          FR/157          FR/148
Reese Havens                         AV/126          FR/115
Russ Adams                           AV/116  FR/105  PO/104  FR/135          FR/112
Cory Vaughn                                                  AV/126  FR/126  FR/170
Jason Pridie                                                 VG/103  VG/104   VG/94
Jordany Valdespin                    AV/136          AV/208
Luis Figueroa                        FR/108   FR/95  FR/128  FR/107
Wilmer Flores                                        AV/108
Matt den Dekker                                              AV/113   AV/90  AV/113
Bubba Bell                                                   AV/100  FR/127   AV/95
Sean Ratliff                                                 VG/148  FR/118  AV/110
Fernando Perez                                                VG/97  VG/129  VG/118
Mike Nickeas             VG  FR/118
Chin-lung Hu                         AV/104           AV/91
Jonathan Malo                        AV/123  VG/100  AV/104   AV/92  FR/128  AV/107
Raul Chavez              VG                  PO/119

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Johan Santana     L      33     3.56     6    4   14   14    91.0   87   36    9   24   69   108
R.A. Dickey       R      37     3.77    11    8   28   27   179.0  179   75   17   45  114   102
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Jenrry Mejia      R      22     4.11     5    4   14   14    65.7   62   30    5   33   48    94
Jonathon Niese    L      25     4.17    10    9   27   26   157.7  164   73   16   48  133    92
Chris Young       R      33     4.18     2    2    6    6    32.3   30   15    4   15   25    92
Chris Capuano     L      33     4.36     8    9   29   22   136.3  139   66   19   39  114    88
Mike Pelfrey      R      28     4.48     9   10   30   29   176.7  193   88   17   60   98    86
Matt Harvey       R      23     4.62     8   10   27   27   128.7  134   66   13   62  118    83
Dillon Gee        R      26     4.70     9   11   29   27   159.0  162   83   23   64  122    82
Jeurys Familia    R      22     4.73     6    7   24   24   120.0  124   63   13   64   92    82
Chris Schwinden   R      25     4.86     7    9   28   23   137.0  158   74   15   41   94    79
Pat Misch         L      30     4.93     7    9   30   20   131.3  155   72   15   37   69    78
Boof Bonser       R      30     4.97     1    1   15    6    41.7   46   23    4   18   24    78
Mark Cohoon       L      24     5.44     7   11   26   26   137.3  168   83   17   53   77    71
Josh Stinson      R      24     5.49     6   11   45   16   116.3  134   71   13   62   67    70
Armando Rodriguez R      24     5.49     5    7   21   21    95.0   99   58   15   56   74    70
Dylan Owen        R      25     5.68     5    9   29   20   115.7  134   73   18   57   76    68
Brandon Moore     R      26     5.70     5    9   23   22   113.7  139   72   16   48   73    68

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Danny Herrera     L      27     3.72     4    3   66    0    65.3   66   27    5   19   47   104
Bobby Parnell     R      27     3.75     4    3   67    0    72.0   67   30    6   30   70   103
Tim Byrdak        L      38     4.05     1    1   59    0    33.3   31   15    3   17   32    95
Ryota Igarashi    R      33     4.19     3    3   56    0    58.0   55   27    6   31   54    92
Mike O’Connor     L      31     4.26     4    5   47    0    63.3   67   30    6   21   51    90
Manny Acosta      R      31     4.31     3    3   58    0    62.7   59   30    8   32   59    89
Justin Hampson    L      32     4.37     2    2   32    0    35.0   36   17    4   11   27    88
Pedro Beato       R      25     4.39     2    2   57    0    65.7   66   32    6   28   42    88
Taylor Buchholz   R      30     4.39     1    1   24    0    26.7   26   13    3   11   23    88
D.J. Carrasco     R      35     4.39     3    3   48    4    80.0   84   39    7   30   56    88
Dale Thayer       R      31     4.43     4    4   56    0    67.0   71   33    7   22   46    87
Miguel Batista    R      41     4.46     3    3   41    7    78.7   78   39    6   42   49    86
Jason IsringhausenR      39     4.56     2    2   30    0    25.7   23   13    3   15   24    85
Brian Sweeney     R      38     4.57     3    4   29    4    63.0   69   32    7   18   41    84
John Lujan        R      28     4.84     4    5   48    0    61.3   68   33    6   28   46    80
Taylor Tankersley L      29     5.18     1    2   50    0    48.7   52   28    6   27   40    74
Gustavo Chacin    L      31     5.47     3    6   34   10    77.3   94   47   10   32   40    70

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
David Wright         .280  .357  .460  2245  8546  1285  2390   521    34   318  1327  1032  1818   295   119
Jason Bay            .265  .357  .462  1660  6009   932  1591   314    41   264   974   826  1534   120   117
Angel Pagan          .267  .318  .397  1281  4691   624  1253   247    60    80   521   360   678   205    93
Jose Reyes           .287  .333  .438  2219  9466  1428  2719   465   209   182   887   660   905   605   106

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Johan Santana         168  101    1    3.32  433  357     2502 2207  922  271  697 2317    129
Mike Pelfrey          110  124    1    4.46  349  340     2042 2223 1012  187  720 1158     88
Chris Capuano          88  101    0    4.46  297  246     1513 1564  749  217  479 1262     92

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Jose Reyes        SS     82%  15%   3%   1%   0%     Carlos Guillen      Rafael Furcal      Jimmy Rollins
David Wright      3B     33%  40%  19%   6%   2%       Jeff Blauser       Corey Koskie        Scott Rolen
Ike Davis         1B      6%  19%  31%  34%  12%          Troy Neel   Reggie Jefferson       Mario Valdez
Dan Murphy        1B      2%  11%  31%  37%  21%    Chris Chambliss    Willie Montanez    Terry Whitfield
Jason Bay         LF     10%  30%  29%  22%  10%        Woodie Held     Wally Westlake         Eric Davis
Lucas Duda        RF      4%  24%  30%  26%  18%          Steve Cox       Adam LaRoche       Joe Vitiello
Angel Pagan       CF     12%  21%  44%  18%   7%         Coco Crisp        Brian McRae      Mitch Webster
Scott Hairston    RF      2%   8%  13%  34%  44%         John Valle     Brandon Berger        Tony Barron
Nick Evans        1B      0%   2%   8%  39%  52%     Steve Stanicek         Jeff Baker        Dustan Mohr
Josh Thole        C       3%  22%  41%  28%   6%           Milt May    Mike LaValliere        Kurt Suzuki
Justin Turner     2B      4%  12%  24%  37%  25%          Joe Randa         Mark Lewis       Billy Ripken
Mike Baxter       RF      2%   6%   4%  19%  70%       Keith Hughes       Bubba Crosby       Steve Carter
Kirk Nieuwenhuis  CF      3%   8%  25%  39%  26%        Myron White        Jim Edmonds        Al Chambers
Fernando Martinez RF      1%   3%   6%  13%  79%      Mark Hamilton       Joe Vitiello  John-Ford Griffin
Willie Harris     LF      1%   3%   2%  11%  84%       Larry Sutton        Dann Howitt       Reed Secrist
Ruben Tejada      SS      2%   7%  26%  44%  22%         Aaron Hill       Julio Franco           Al Lopez
Zach Lutz         3B      1%   1%  10%  25%  64%       Reed Secrist       Fran Mullins         Matt Macri
Val Pascucci      1B      0%   2%   3%  14%  82%     Ty Van Burkleo      Leroy Stanton       Scott Ullger
Josh Satin        2B      2%   3%   3%  26%  68%        Chris Gomez         Dick Green      Mark Naehring
Ronny Paulino     C       0%   4%  13%  36%  48%      Charlie Berry     Robert Machado         Jason Hill
Jason Botts       LF      0%   0%   1%   4%  96%   Darrell Whitmore     Mike Colangelo        Orsino Hill
Reese Havens      2B      1%   4%   5%  15%  77%         Dave Baker      Mike Costanzo  Chris Lombardozzi
Russ Adams        3B      1%   2%   4%  12%  82%     Jorge Velandia         Jason Wood          Mike Bell
Cory Vaughn       RF      1%   1%   1%   8%  91%        Carlos Sosa      Jeremy Dodson        Jeff Bailey
Jason Pridie      CF      1%   2%   5%  18%  76%       Tommy Murphy       Alexis Gomez        Jalal Leach
Jordany Valdespin SS      2%   3%   7%  29%  60%        John Wehner        Bill Spiers     Rafael Ramirez
Luis Figueroa     SS      0%   1%   7%  19%  74%         Larry Bowa     Casey Candaele         Nellie Fox
Wilmer Flores     SS      3%   5%   6%  24%  63%          Luis Cruz     Gregorio Petit      Carlos Rivero
Matt den Dekker   CF      0%   1%   4%  16%  80%        Brad Snyder      Todd Dunwoody   Braulio Castillo
Bubba Bell        RF      0%   0%   0%   1% 100%      Justin Gemoll      Jason Huisman          Ken Woods
Sean Ratliff      CF      0%   0%   3%   7%  91%      Rondal Rollin        Jim Olander         Pat Rooney
Fernando Perez    CF      0%   0%   0%   3%  97%        Glen Barker        Lee Tinsley        Mike Murphy
Mike Nickeas      C       0%   1%   1%   7%  91%       Chris Tremie          Tom Nieto     Bill Dobrolsky
Chin-lung Hu      SS      0%   0%   0%   1%  99%         Brian Keck        Raul Nieves          Juan Sosa
Jonathan Malo     2B      0%   0%   0%   0% 100%     Chris Petersen     Jon Schuerholz         Brian Keck
Raul Chavez       C       0%   1%   0%   2%  98%          Tony Pena       Rick Ferrell       Sandy Alomar

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Johan Santana     SP      46%    44%    11%          Jimmy Key      Mike Flanagan        Jon Matlack
Danny Herrera     RP      24%    49%    27%       Larry Casian      Gabe Gonzalez     Erasmo Ramirez
Bobby Parnell     RP      20%    55%    26%        Colter Bean        Mike Timlin        Terry Adams
R.A. Dickey       SP      33%    50%    17%        Rick Mahler          Paul Byrd    Doyle Alexander
Tim Byrdak        RP      19%    39%    42%       Jesse Orosco         Dan Plesac        Ron Villone
Jenrry Mejia      SP      24%    48%    28%        John Miller      Scipio Spinks        Mike Harkey
Jonathon Niese    SP      16%    58%    25%      Glendon Rusch      Rheal Cormier        Steve Trout
Chris Young       SP      23%    30%    47%        Chuck Smith       Kevin Foster  Scott Kamieniecki
Ryota Igarashi    RP       6%    39%    55% Heathcliff Slocumb       Tim Stoddard      Doug Bochtler
Mike O’Connor     RP       5%    34%    61%     Yan Lachapelle        Buddy Groom        Jim Crowell
Manny Acosta      RP       5%    36%    59%          David Lee      Doug Bochtler    Ricky Bottalico
Chris Capuano     SP      10%    45%    44%        Darrell May        David Wells        Jon Matlack
Justin Hampson    RP      10%    32%    58%       Brian Shouse    Vic Darensbourg    Bryan Eversgerd
Pedro Beato       RP       4%    31%    65%       Jeremy Wedel          Ryan Wing        Jimmy Myers
Taylor Buchholz   RP      20%    33%    48%        Bill Risley       Aaron Rakers         Doug Henry
D.J. Carrasco     RP       6%    29%    65%         A.J. Sager        Dennis Lamp       Ricky Barlow
Dale Thayer       RP       6%    33%    60%        Jay Tessmer      Brian Schmack      Jack Cressend
Miguel Batista    RP      12%    27%    61%        Don McMahon      Ted Abernathy         Joe Heving
Mike Pelfrey      SP       6%    44%    50%     Scott Erickson      Lary Sorensen         Ryan Drese
Jason IsringhausenRP      13%    26%    61%          Doug Bair        Don McMahon        Greg Harris
Brian Sweeney     RP       7%    25%    68%        Matt Herges        Dave Pavlas         Rick White
Matt Harvey       SP       4%    35%    60%   Calvin Schiraldi         John Adams        Kyle Davies
Dillon Gee        SP       3%    30%    68%        Dan Carlson      Allen Morlock      Mike Trombley
Jeurys Familia    SP       2%    30%    68%        Matt WrightJohn Van Benschoten        J.D. Durbin
John Lujan        RP       2%    16%    82%   Erik Schullstrom     Kevin Gryboski       Jeff McCurry
Chris Schwinden   SP       1%    25%    74%   Elizardo Ramirez        Clay Parker         A.J. Sager
Pat Misch         SP       3%    22%    75%   Mark Hendrickson        Scott Downs    Andrew Lorraine
Boof Bonser       SP       4%    15%    81%        Mark Hutton     Bennie Daniels        Bob Scanlan
Taylor Tankersley RP       1%    15%    84%      Scott Watkins       Ben Julianel         Tim Adkins
Mark Cohoon       SP       0%     4%    96%       Jason Cromer        Wes Whisler      Jason Dickson
Gustavo Chacin    RP       0%     4%    96%       Jamie Walker        Buddy Groom       Bill Krueger
Josh Stinson      SP       0%     1%    99%        Bill Malloy        Brandy Vann     Willis Roberts
Armando Rodriguez SP       0%     8%    91%      Robert Person        Oscar Munoz     Marino Santana
Dylan Owen        SP       0%     3%    97%      David Walters   Larry McWilliams       Josh Axelson
Brandon Moore     SP       0%     3%    97%       Sonny Garcia          Rich Yett     Martire Franco

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Jose Reyes              44%       8%      13%       0%      74%       2%       8%      57%
David Wright             3%      15%      12%       3%       1%       6%       9%      13%
Ike Davis                1%       7%       9%       0%       0%       0%       4%       0%
Dan Murphy              13%       1%       3%       0%       2%       0%       2%       0%
Jason Bay                1%       6%       3%       0%       1%       0%       2%       1%
Lucas Duda               0%       3%       2%       1%       1%       0%       2%       0%
Angel Pagan              3%       2%       1%       0%      13%       0%       0%      24%
Scott Hairston           0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Nick Evans               0%       0%       1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Thole               4%       4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Justin Turner            1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Mike Baxter              1%       1%       2%       0%      10%       1%       2%       1%
Kirk Nieuwenhuis         0%       0%       2%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Fernando Martinez        0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Willie Harris            0%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ruben Tejada             1%       2%       0%       1%       7%       0%       0%       2%
Zach Lutz                0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Val Pascucci             0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Satin               0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ronny Paulino            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jason Botts              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Reese Havens             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Russ Adams               0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Cory Vaughn              0%       0%       1%       0%       4%       1%       1%       1%
Jason Pridie             0%       0%       1%       0%       2%       0%       1%       0%
Jordany Valdespin        0%       0%       1%       0%       4%       1%       0%      17%
Luis Figueroa            1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Wilmer Flores            1%       0%       2%       6%       4%       5%       1%       0%
Matt den Dekker          0%       0%       0%       0%       6%       0%       0%       0%
Bubba Bell               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Sean Ratliff             0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Fernando Perez           0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       6%
Mike Nickeas             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chin-lung Hu             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jonathan Malo            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Raul Chavez              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Johan Santana             19%        69%         9%        25%        69%
Danny Herrera             18%        66%         8%        25%        85%
Bobby Parnell             15%        68%        74%         1%        84%
R.A. Dickey               10%        55%         3%        34%        73%
Tim Byrdak                19%        48%        63%         0%        80%
Jenrry Mejia               7%        44%         7%         0%        85%
Jonathon Niese             3%        40%        26%         7%        73%
Chris Young                9%        32%        15%         2%        62%
Ryota Igarashi             6%        37%        57%         0%        67%
Mike O'Connor              3%        32%        22%         7%        69%
Manny Acosta               4%        27%        65%         0%        51%
Chris Capuano              2%        24%        26%        12%        27%
Justin Hampson            10%        32%        16%        21%        65%
Pedro Beato                2%        28%         1%         1%        72%
Taylor Buchholz           12%        40%        37%         9%        55%
D.J. Carrasco              5%        25%         6%         4%        76%
Dale Thayer                5%        27%         2%        10%        62%
Miguel Batista            10%        31%         5%         1%        81%
Mike Pelfrey               0%        18%         0%         2%        79%
Jason Isringhausen        13%        39%        51%         1%        57%
Brian Sweeney              6%        27%         4%        22%        57%
Matt Harvey                0%        14%        57%         0%        65%
Dillon Gee                 0%         9%         8%         0%        24%
Jeurys Familia             0%         9%         8%         0%        61%
John Lujan                 1%        13%         7%         0%        76%
Chris Schwinden            0%         7%         1%         8%        56%
Pat Misch                  0%         7%         0%        16%        56%
Boof Bonser                2%        14%         3%         2%        74%
Taylor Tankersley          1%        11%        28%         0%        42%
Mark Cohoon                0%         0%         0%         0%        43%
Gustavo Chacin             0%         3%         1%         1%        51%
Josh Stinson               0%         1%         0%         0%        60%
Armando Rodriguez          0%         1%        12%         0%        20%
Dylan Owen                 0%         0%         0%         0%        18%
Brandon Moore              0%         0%         0%         0%        32%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 03, 2011 at 06:07 PM | 81 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 06:26 PM (#3985918)
I see Mr. ZIPS loves him some Lucas Duda...
   2. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: November 03, 2011 at 06:36 PM (#3985925)
Welp, the team stinks.
   3. JJ1986 Posted: November 03, 2011 at 06:40 PM (#3985928)
Nice bullpen.
   4. Jose Can Still Seabiscuit Posted: November 03, 2011 at 06:42 PM (#3985932)
Does ZiPS do anything for the adjusted dimensions of the ballpark? I'm assuming not. Who was the last team to make meaningful adjustments to an existing park?
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 06:42 PM (#3985933)
That pitching is awful. WTF happened?
   6. Yonder Alonso in misguided trousers (cardinal) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 06:43 PM (#3985934)
Jeff Blauser, Corey Koskie, and Scott Rolen as comps for Wright? Eesh.
   7. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: November 03, 2011 at 06:48 PM (#3985938)
I always enjoyed watching Johan, way back when he was still great. So that projection saddens me.
   8. Lassus Posted: November 03, 2011 at 06:48 PM (#3985939)
My favorite comp on the board is Julio Franco for Ruben Tejada.

I'll also take the over on his projection, but I'm like that.
   9. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 03, 2011 at 06:53 PM (#3985941)
Let's see, Thole will be 25, has a career OPS+ of 96 (he did hit .328/.395/.422 in AA in 2009, and .267/.353/.430 in 48 games in AAA in 2010) and he projects to 93.

Ike Davis will be 25 - his career mark is 123, and he hit .309/.386/.565 in AA and .364/.500/.636 in 42 AAA PAs... and he projects to 113

Murphy will be 27, his career average is 111, he projects to 108

Duda is at 124 in 439 MLB PAs, he's hit .310/.398/.606 in AAA (IL, not PCL, go look up how many guys who can OPS 1.000 in the IL)- he'll be 26, he projects to 108

Wright, OK he hit 114 last year, but he's still under 30, his 3:2:1 weighted average of 2009-2011 is 124, he projects to 116

maybe this is the fanboy in me speaking, but a bunch of these guys look 5-10 light to me

and now for my totally irrelevant complaint/comparison:
2012 ZiPS:
FMart: 242/.303/.389,
Pascucci: 215/.309/.370

2011, Buffalo:
FMart:.260/.329/.417
PAscucci: .264/.375/.476

2010, Buffalo:
FMart:.253/.317/.455
Pascucci: .258/.398/.579

Career AAA:
FMart: .265/.326/.465
Pascucci:.275/.393/.509

Yes, I know Pascucci is 33 and FMart is young and has potential and all that... But shouldn't FMart at least get CLOSE to Pascucci in the here and now before you'd expect him to pass him in the immediate future?
   10. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 06:54 PM (#3985942)
Couple of requests as always, Dan, if you don't mind: Juan Lagares, Jose De La Torre, and Collin McHugh.
   11. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 03, 2011 at 06:58 PM (#3985945)
That pitching is awful. WTF happened?

It was awful last year
   12. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 07:00 PM (#3985947)
Scipio Spinks (on Mejia's comp list): Not much of a pitcher, but a great name.
   13. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 07:01 PM (#3985949)
But shouldn't FMart at least get CLOSE to Pascucci in the here and now before you'd expect him to pass him in the immediate future?


I think that's Pascucci's K rate talking.
   14. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 03, 2011 at 07:11 PM (#3985953)
Dan, if you don't mind: Juan Lagares


I'm also curious, but think that projecting Lageres is impossible at this point-
2011 was 90% BABIP driven (his walk rate went from abysmal to merely terrible)

But he was just 22, maybe he really did take a "great leap forward," he has some pop (not a lot) and his K rate is low enough so that he could sustain a high batting average, but he was pretty bad before 2011

If he hits .325 in Binghamton/Buffalo in 2012 I won't be surprised, unfortunately I wouldn't be surprised if he hits .265 with little power or walks either...

The guy I think ZiPS is most "off" on up above is Duda, I think he's legit 120-135 hitter, and will be so until he's 30, unfortunately I also think he's legit DH as well. The guy I'm terribly worried that ZiPS is right about is Wright...
I also suspect that Tejada is going to post a 100 or so... but have tad less confidence in that prediction
   15. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 03, 2011 at 07:14 PM (#3985955)
I think that's Pascucci's K rate talking.

It's not much worse than FMart's.
   16. Ravecc Posted: November 03, 2011 at 07:16 PM (#3985960)
Wright’s projection scares me, but the offense is still slightly better than I thought. I’ll take that production from Bay, Duda, Thole and Evans. Evans?

The pitching -- ayayay. Why exactly were they so intent on holding on to Capuano? Thankfully, Izzy and Iggy are no more.
   17. Sam M. Posted: November 03, 2011 at 07:19 PM (#3985962)
Don't get depressed by the Wilmer Flores projection, he was just 19 and ZiPS has him with OPS+ around 100 for a bunch of years in his prime.


That's nice and all, but the problem is that nobody I know of thinks Flores has even a prayer of staying at SS, and he doesn't have nearly the speed to be a center fielder or the hands to be a 2B. So if he projects to an OPS+ of 100, it's probably going to be as a 3B or -- even more likely -- as a corner outfielder.

I assume I don't have to say what a 3B or corner outfielder with a 100ish OPS+ is worth. If he's a 3B, he better be a heck of a glove to be worth a damn.

The Ike Davis projection looks fine to me. If he plays 99 games and hits 15 home runs, that's 25 or so in a full season. Sounds about right to me. Maybe a tick higher with the shorter fences, if he's fully healthy on the ankle.

The Mets aren't going to be really good again (at the earliest) until and unless they hit the jackpot on their young pitching prospects. And that's both a longshot, and not a 2012 proposition anyway. 2012 is about watching how they progress, and hoping they stay healthy. It's not really about the major league team much, at all. I'd say the single most significant player on next year's major league team is almost certainly Niese. If he can take a step forward and start to have his results match his peripherals, he could represent the first genuine piece of the rotation they need to put together. Other than Niese, the guys we should really be watching are Wheeler, Harvey, Familia and Mejia (in his return from Tommy John). If two of those five hit as top of the rotation starters by 2014, and one develops into a solid innings guy (i.e., better than Pelfrey), the foundation for a contenders' rotation will be set and we'll be good to go.
   18. Davo Dozier Posted: November 03, 2011 at 07:22 PM (#3985963)
16 homers for Bay? I will take the WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY under.
   19. Conor Posted: November 03, 2011 at 07:35 PM (#3985975)
The Ike Davis projection looks fine to me. If he plays 99 games and hits 15 home runs, that's 25 or so in a full season. Sounds about right to me. Maybe a tick higher with the shorter fences, if he's fully healthy on the ankle.


I think Ike is a little low. 113 OPS+ does seem a tad on the low side, what offensive levels are being projected again? 338/449 is about the same as he did as a rookie (351/440) and he was great last year. Sure he didn't play a lot, but he's 2 years older, and he was really good in 35 games last year, his career slug is 460, so 449 does seem a tad light to me.

I'd say the single most significant player on next year's major league team is almost certainly Niese. If he can take a step forward and start to have his results match his peripherals, he could represent the first genuine piece of the rotation they need to put together.


Definitely agree with this. Niese just missed qualifying for the fangraphs leaderboards, but if you drop it down to 150 IP, Niese was 17th in FIP and 10th in xFIP in the NL. He's had trouble with BABIP his entire career, but if he can get anywhere close to that, the Mets have something like a #2 starter on a championship team.
   20. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: November 03, 2011 at 07:41 PM (#3985979)
Dan, are the projections based on last years Citi Field? Just curious, since they are changing it and all...
   21. Sam M. Posted: November 03, 2011 at 07:45 PM (#3985982)
16 homers for Bay? I will take the WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY under.


With the shorter and lower fences in left field? He'd have to be complete and utter toast for it to be WAY under. (Which I grant you is not outside the realm of possibility by any means.) I'd go for a dozen and wouldn't be shocked if he made it to the over on that.
   22. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: November 03, 2011 at 07:47 PM (#3985984)
Second the request on Lagares.
   23. Davo Dozier Posted: November 03, 2011 at 07:58 PM (#3985988)
Speaking of...
Jason Bay, career:

Day Games: 268/372/460 (832 OPS)
Night Games: 275/367/506 (873 OPS)

Jason Bay, 2010-2011:

Day Games: 283/369/402 (.771 OPS)
Night Games: 227/309/350 (659 OPS)

Am I just sample-sizing the hell out of this, or does this look like a guy who's having vision issues?
   24. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 03, 2011 at 07:59 PM (#3985989)
FWIW Bay hit .256/.339/.419 in 58 post ASB games last year...

and he did have power as recently as 2008/09 :-)
   25. billyshears Posted: November 03, 2011 at 08:08 PM (#3985998)
The Mets aren't going to be really good again (at the earliest) until and unless they hit the jackpot on their young pitching prospects. And that's both a longshot, and not a 2012 proposition anyway. 2012 is about watching how they progress, and hoping they stay healthy. It's not really about the major league team much, at all. I'd say the single most significant player on next year's major league team is almost certainly Niese. If he can take a step forward and start to have his results match his peripherals, he could represent the first genuine piece of the rotation they need to put together. Other than Niese, the guys we should really be watching are Wheeler, Harvey, Familia and Mejia (in his return from Tommy John). If two of those five hit as top of the rotation starters by 2014, and one develops into a solid innings guy (i.e., better than Pelfrey), the foundation for a contenders' rotation will be set and we'll be good to go.


I agree with this entirely, which is also why I don't care too much about these (or any other) projections. The Mets need players to hit their 80th percentile or better. If most players hit their mean projection, the Mets will be crap for the next couple of years (at least). But we already knew this.
   26. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 03, 2011 at 08:10 PM (#3986002)
Based on Citi - rather go with the known than a wild-ass guess on an unknown. People looking at the stats can more easily adjust for something they can look up easily (Citi park factors) than something they can (Dan's full-assed guess on the new park factors).
   27. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 08:21 PM (#3986009)
Jeff Blauser, Corey Koskie, and Scott Rolen as comps for Wright? Eesh.


That looks to me like Wright's worst, medium, and best-case scenario.
   28. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 08:23 PM (#3986011)
Do Mets fans want Reyes back?
   29. Lassus Posted: November 03, 2011 at 08:25 PM (#3986014)
Do Mets fans want Reyes back?

Definitely, but the range of prices at which they are in acceptance also definitely varies.
   30. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 03, 2011 at 08:25 PM (#3986016)
Let's see, Thole will be 25, has a career OPS+ of 96 (he did hit .328/.395/.422 in AA in 2009, and .267/.353/.430 in 48 games in AAA in 2010) and he projects to 93.


Walk-heavy minor league numbers don't translate well. ZiPS sees Thole as being very consistent around this level (93, 95, 95, 96, 96, 94, 93, 88 though 32), but sees very little offensive upside. And catchers have more natural offensive downside than any other position. Move Thole to be an inadequate 1B and the you can pretty much add 5 points to that number a year.

Murphy will be 27, his career average is 111, he projects to 108

Again, ZiPS sees his upside as limited.

Duda is at 124 in 439 MLB PAs, he's hit .310/.398/.606 in AAA (IL, not PCL, go look up how many guys who can OPS 1.000 in the IL)- he'll be 26, he projects to 108)

ZiPS has his combined minor league translations and major league numbers as:

222/301/328
229/314/338
252/332/461
281/363/471
   31. Conor Posted: November 03, 2011 at 08:25 PM (#3986017)
That looks to me like Wright's worst, medium, and best-case scenario.


Which is kind of sad to me, because when Wright first came up, the comp I seemed to read everywhere was Rolen. And by about 2008 or so, it was looking like he'd be a better player than Rolen. (Damn was Rolen a great player, so maybe a better way of phrasing it was by 2007 or 2008 it looked like he would be Rolen if Rolen could play 155 games every year).
   32. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: November 03, 2011 at 08:30 PM (#3986022)
Based on Citi - rather go with the known than a wild-ass guess on an unknown. People looking at the stats can more easily adjust for something they can look up easily (Citi park factors) than something they can (Dan's full-assed guess on the new park factors).

I suspected as much, but nice to know for sure. Thanks.
   33. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 03, 2011 at 08:31 PM (#3986024)
Well, "than something they can't" that is.
   34. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 08:35 PM (#3986030)
What's the acceptance Reyes price for you, Lassus?
   35. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 03, 2011 at 08:51 PM (#3986036)
iPS has his combined minor league translations and major league numbers as:

222/301/328
229/314/338
252/332/461
281/363/471

which using Shea/Citifield for each year yields an OPS+ of
66
75
115
131

That's an unweighted 4 year average of 97
It gives a 3:2:1 weighted average of 116

personally I think he is simply not the player he was pre-2010 (but again that could be the fanboy in me talking)
   36. zack Posted: November 03, 2011 at 09:20 PM (#3986048)
What does ZiPS do with a guy like Thole? For his ML career 93% of his PA have been against righties. I'm guessing that ZiPS assumes that this will continue? Does it even take splits into account?
   37. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 03, 2011 at 09:34 PM (#3986053)
Walk-heavy minor league numbers don't translate well.


197 in 1733 PAs is walk heavy?
ZiPS sees Thole as being very consistent around this level (93, 95, 95, 96, 96, 94, 93, 88 though 32), but sees very little offensive upside.


He may very well be a 95 "true talent" hitter, but his walk rate is average, he's got no HR power, basically his OPS/OPS+ is going to fluctuate with his BABIP
He's got a low enough K-Rate that he could hit .300 some year- and that'll generate a .300/.370/.380 line and an OPS+ of 110 or so, he might also bat .250 and drop that OPS+ to 80, he's hit 96 so far, but I just don't see him consistently being around there...
   38. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: November 03, 2011 at 09:42 PM (#3986057)
I just don't see him consistently being around there...


ZiPS does.
   39. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 03, 2011 at 09:42 PM (#3986058)
197 in 1733 PAs is walk heavy?

It's not that his walk rate was so *high* but that it was a disproportionately large contributor to his positive offensive value.
   40. BobbyS Posted: November 03, 2011 at 10:13 PM (#3986068)
Murphy will be 27, his career average is 111, he projects to 108

Again, ZiPS sees his upside as limited.


Limited, or passed? Isn't it basically saying, his peak is passed, even though he's about to enter his prime? I'm sure the year off didn't help, and I get why the projection is what it is with the slightly below average '09... just not sure about that explanation.
   41. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 03, 2011 at 10:51 PM (#3986106)

Limited, or passed? Isn't it basically saying, his peak is passed, even though he's about to enter his prime? I'm sure the year off didn't help, and I get why the projection is what it is with the slightly below average '09... just not sure about that explanation.


Risk skewness changes the mean expectation. Even if I know for a fact that player X is a 110 OPS+ player today, if there's more downside than upside, the expectation is necessarily going to be lower. Murphy's not projected to have a higher floor, just a lower upside.
   42. Lassus Posted: November 03, 2011 at 11:04 PM (#3986118)
What's the acceptance Reyes price for you, Lassus?

I'm not really a contracts guy, so my thoughts on it are probably going to sound stupid. I think that the risk of his injury history cannot be ignored, and I would assume off the bat that Reyes and his agent would know asking for Crawford or Werth money is going to make them seem laughable, even if he deserves it, considering what's happened to THEM.

I don't even remember what's been bandied about already, but I think any deal at $20M+ per is too high. Have 5/90M and 6/100M been laughed off the threads already? I can't even find them.
   43. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: November 03, 2011 at 11:09 PM (#3986122)
My take is that Reyes is that he's damaged goods, or at best erratic from season to season. Not worth the huge deal somebody will probably pay him--and the payer won't be the Mets.
   44. Dan Posted: November 03, 2011 at 11:09 PM (#3986123)
6/100 sounds about right to me.

Someone really needs to make an official FA prediction thread. I'm never going to be able to remember the random threads in which I throw out these numbers.
   45. Sam M. Posted: November 03, 2011 at 11:25 PM (#3986127)
IMHO, Reyes is actually worth more to the Mets because of the fan base's attachment to him. He sells more tickets as a Met than he does as a Ranger or Cardinal or whatever. From that, I put his value with a marketing premium at 6/$100M. I don't think he's probably worth that to anybody else, but he would be to the Mets, combining on-field wins plus increased revenue.

The Mets seem to be sending signals that they are unwilling to go past five years on any deal for Reyes. This could be meant to make clear early on their line in the sand to prepare fans for his eventual departure. As a negotiating strategy against other teams, if the Mets really want to keep him, I think it's awfully dumb. It basically tells their competition exactly what they need to do to eliminate the Mets: include a sixth year in their offer.

I expect the Mets will go to something like 5/$85 or a bit less. That won't do it, and I think it will end up getting the Mets some very bad PR when the bidding is won by somebody else well north of that -- over $100M for sure. Worse still would be if their current strategy of letting some other team set the market ends up meaning they never even make a bid at all, because Reyes's initial offers either beat the Mets' best or the offers get there so quickly the Mets never even get out of the box with a bid. Tactically, I think they are courting a debacle here -- even if it turns out the best offer ends up being one the Mets can reasonably say they should NOT have matched.
   46. Lassus Posted: November 03, 2011 at 11:32 PM (#3986130)
I expect the Mets will go to something like 5/$85 or a bit less.

I guess to me that seems low, and I'd settle for 5/$90 or 5/$95, 6/$100 or 6/$110, but if it's 5/$100 or 6/$120 with a very heavy heart I'd probably pass.





And then watch him put up 7 or 8 years in a row like last year, because that's how we roll.
   47. zenbitz Posted: November 03, 2011 at 11:50 PM (#3986142)
Giants need Reyes... But they are crying poor
   48. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: November 03, 2011 at 11:56 PM (#3986145)
Hearing a lot about teams that either don't want him or won't overpay for him. Maybe not much of a market develops and 5/90 is about the best he can do. That'd be nice.
   49. Dan Posted: November 04, 2011 at 12:02 AM (#3986152)
Hearing a lot about teams that either don't want him or won't overpay for him. Maybe not much of a market develops and 5/90 is about the best he can do. That'd be nice.


That just seems hard to believe with the current state of the SS position around the league. Just off the top of my head, he'd be an obvious upgrade for a bunch of teams that can afford him: Detroit (with Peralta moving to 3B), Boston, St. Louis (if they don't re-sign Pujols, they can't afford both), Philadelphia (if they don't re-sign Reyes), Milwaukee (if they don't re-sign Fielder), Florida (if they move Hanley to 3B or CF), San Francisco.
   50. AJMcCringleberry Posted: November 04, 2011 at 12:41 AM (#3986177)
What a horrible bullpen.
   51. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: November 04, 2011 at 01:00 AM (#3986183)
Apparently their best reliever is 5'6". Maybe they should be looking in the California Penal League for talent.
   52. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: November 04, 2011 at 01:18 AM (#3986189)
Someone really needs to make an official FA prediction thread. I'm never going to be able to remember the random threads in which I throw out these numbers.


We tried in this thread. Didn't get a lot od response, but my picks are there...
   53. thetailor Posted: November 04, 2011 at 03:55 AM (#3986251)
Oh my god, so much to say. The day when ZiPS comes out for the Mets is one of my favorite baseball related days of the year. And I lurk here 99.99% of the time, so that's saying something.

First, and most importantly: ZiPS came out in what, 2003? So the question is -- is this the worst Mets team that ZiPS has ever predicted? It's got to be close. I can't find the 2004 squad on google anywhere, but they at least had Matsui and a young Reyes and Piazza hanging on. We know that squad ended the year poorly, but you have to think as constituted in the spring that it didn't look as bad as this one (assuming no Reyes).

Second, not even one reliever projected as league average? That's got to be ... rare, to say the least? Even the Astros last year had Brandon Lyon projected as average for cryin' out loud.

Third, I don't disagree with it, but seeing an all-time great like Johan Santana projected for 168 career wins is a shame. I know about the late start and all, but man, didn't it seem at one point like he was on the HOF track? From 03-08 he had 17 wins a year and five finishes in the top 5 for the Cy Young. ZiPS sees him winning only 35 more games, total.

Lastly, I'll take the under on Niese, again. And I'll put the (nonexistent) house on it.
   54. Mark S. is bored Posted: November 04, 2011 at 04:42 AM (#3986277)
Third, I don't disagree with it, but seeing an all-time great like Johan Santana projected for 168 career wins is a shame. I know about the late start and all, but man, didn't it seem at one point like he was on the HOF track? From 03-08 he had 17 wins a year and five finishes in the top 5 for the Cy Young. ZiPS sees him winning only 35 more games, total.


I'm sure Zips is being very, very conservative with a pitcher going into their age 33 season who just missed an entire season. If Santana is able to bounce back and have a couple good, healthy seasons, I could see him going above 200 wins easily. But, unless he has a Randy Johnsonish run in his late 30s, I doubt he makes 300 wins and might not have the counting stats for the HOF.
   55. Mark S. is bored Posted: November 04, 2011 at 04:46 AM (#3986278)
That just seems hard to believe with the current state of the SS position around the league. Just off the top of my head, he'd be an obvious upgrade for a bunch of teams that can afford him: Detroit (with Peralta moving to 3B), Boston, St. Louis (if they don't re-sign Pujols, they can't afford both), Philadelphia (if they don't re-sign Reyes), Milwaukee (if they don't re-sign Fielder), Florida (if they move Hanley to 3B or CF), San Francisco.


I would guess Detroit and San Fran are the big teams chasing him. But I think the fact that there are so many teams that need a SS makes it likely that at least one of them offers Jose a big contract.
   56. PreservedFish Posted: November 04, 2011 at 06:03 AM (#3986293)
Niese just missed qualifying for the fangraphs leaderboards, but if you drop it down to 150 IP, Niese was 17th in FIP and 10th in xFIP in the NL. He's had trouble with BABIP his entire career, but if he can get anywhere close to that, the Mets have something like a #2 starter on a championship team.


Is Niese the new Glendon Rusch? I haven't paid attention to any DIPS debates since about 2001, so, if anyone can let me know what the world decided about these types of pitchers, I'd be much obliged to learn.
   57. The Hal Lanier Hitting Academy Posted: November 04, 2011 at 07:23 AM (#3986304)
Does anybody know if Santana is expected to be ready on opening day?
   58. Something Other Posted: November 04, 2011 at 09:11 AM (#3986313)
That pitching is awful. WTF happened?
Santana's into his decline phase even without the many injuries, just missed a year, which most projection systems project conservatively (imo) and the poor man has no elbows. Dickey's at an age where projection systems punish starters, especially starters with short track records (how does ZIPS cope with a "missing" year, like R.A.'s 2009?), and I'll bet your bottom dollar there's no knuckleballer adjustment upwards for ZIPS. I'm a little surprised Pelfrey's ERA+ isn't in the 90s, but the difference between 91 and 86 isn't particularly meaningful. Gee looked bad for most of last season and just isn't much of a pitcher. Neither, unfortunately, and despite his FIP, is Niese, who looks like the kind of guy who's going to start his journey around the majors as soon as he gets to his last arb year, and a decade from now he'll be one of those FIP object lessons, forever underperforming for most of the nine teams he made appearances for. He gives up a lot of hits because he doesn't have particularly good stuff. He's a big guy and looks like he should be able to get hitters out, but there's something missing. It'd be interesting to find some comps who K a decent number of guys, have good control, but nonetheless give up a lot of hits. I wouldn't be surprised if there were a lot of underperformers in that group.


The pitching -- ayayay. Why exactly were they so intent on holding on to Capuano?
No real offers? Capuano was bad last year. ERA+ of 82, and worse in the second half than in the first, which seemed pretty clear on the mound and on the scoreboard. By the beginning of August he looked toasty. Even the Red Sox seem not to have made any kind of offer for him, so why not hang onto him in the drive for 81?

maybe this is the fanboy in me speaking, but a bunch of these guys look 5-10 light to me
How deep does ZIPS go? BABIP, Opposing DER...? That could account for the apparent discrepancies versus OPS+.

edit: Pelfrey's odd-even pattern is currently in the shape that some projection systems, reasonably enough, punish. 81, 107, 78 for the last three years. That brilliant ERA+ of 113 in 2008 is getting further and further away...
   59. Something Other Posted: November 04, 2011 at 10:23 AM (#3986321)
I think Niese's problems stem from being moved through the minors too quickly. The Minaya Mets were notorious for pushing guys. Niese had the requisite year in High-A, St. Lucie, in 2007 without being completely, utterly hopeless, so to AA he went. Instead of promoting guys because they were ready for the next level, or because their development would be served by being challenged at the next level, the Mets were moving guys up by default. If they didn't stink up the joint, they got promoted. So that's what they did with Niese. And, superficially, it worked. Niese had a respectable two-thirds of a season in 2008 in AA, at Binghampton, before getting bumped to AAA. Both promotions were premature, imo. He was giving up 10 hits per 9 with an unimpressive K rate at High-A in 2007, and could have easily spent another year there trying to develop a real plus pitch, which he doesn't have even now, and which is why I suspect his results don't match his raw numbers. My impression was his numbers improved at AA because he got his last physical growth and had some luck to go with some legitimate, albeit minor improvement on his fastball, but all the Mets--with their thin ML rotation and some openings coming up--saw was a guy with an ERA around 3.00. How could pushing him to AAA go wrong? 7 starts at AAA in 2008, 16 starts at AAA in 2009, New York here we come!

Anyway, that's what Niese seems like, to me. A pitcher who was never given the time, when it wouldn't have cost, to really learn the craft of pitching. He was good enough to just make it into a major league rotation and stay there, but at that level he can't risk a month or two of complete ineffectiveness--or worse--to try to get more movement on his cutter, change his grip and add two more mph on his fastball, or mess with and improve the break on his curve, just for instance.
   60. AJMcCringleberry Posted: November 04, 2011 at 11:11 AM (#3986330)
Just off the top of my head, he'd be an obvious upgrade for a bunch of teams that can afford him: Detroit (with Peralta moving to 3B), Boston, St. Louis (if they don't re-sign Pujols, they can't afford both), Philadelphia (if they don't re-sign Reyes), Milwaukee (if they don't re-sign Fielder), Florida (if they move Hanley to 3B or CF), San Francisco.

I mentioned it in another thread, but MLB Network put up the top 5 teams going for Reyes:

1. Brewers
2. Giants
3. Nats
4. Mets
5. Marlins

Capuano was bad last year.

I was fine with him coming back this year, but his major problem is home runs and with the new dimensions I'm not so sure I want him back anymore.
   61. Banta Posted: November 04, 2011 at 11:17 AM (#3986331)
Glad the Mets can't afford their best offensive player.

I don't think Niese will ever perform to FIP either, as hes underperformed his entire career, minors too.
   62. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: November 04, 2011 at 11:21 AM (#3986333)
It'd be interesting to find some comps who K a decent number of guys, have good control, but nonetheless give up a lot of hits. I wouldn't be surprised if there were a lot of underperformers in that group.


It seems to me you don't really understand FIP. The point is that pitchers who K a decent number of guys are expected not to give up a lot of hits. The ones who do are, by definition, underperformers of FIP and its derivatives.

As for Niese, we'll see. He hasn't pitched enough to know if he's going to get the results FIP, et al, would predict. Your comments about his arsenal make very little sense in light of his K & BB rates. Clearly he can beat hitters. It's just a matter of what's happening when, inevitably, they put it in play.
   63. Something Other Posted: November 04, 2011 at 12:07 PM (#3986341)
Capuano was bad last year.

I was fine with him coming back this year, but his major problem is home runs and with the new dimensions I'm not so sure I want him back anymore.
What would you have offered him to come back? He seems to have no upside left at all--I think I'd much rather the Mets find a guy who might surprise us for the couple of million it'd probably take to bring Capuano back.



It seems to me you don't really understand FIP.
Go f*ck yourself, toilet breath.

Do you really have nothing better to do than follow me around saying stupid sh!t? Get a life, c@cksucker.
   64. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: November 04, 2011 at 12:18 PM (#3986344)
It still seems to me that you don't really understand FIP.
   65. Something Other Posted: November 04, 2011 at 12:29 PM (#3986348)
It still seems to you that 2 + 2 = 7. Now, please stick your fist up your ass, you abuse craving imbecile, and go pester someone else with your inane rattling.

You're not one of those idiots that wobbled over here a couple of years back from Amazin Avenue, are you?
You are! You're one of those internet freaks I've read about, who trolls people without any point or purpose whatever and keeps begging for a kick in the nuts. I could suggest we leave each other alone, but you're incapable of it. You'll keep this up until my foot gets tired.
   66. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: November 04, 2011 at 12:33 PM (#3986349)
Do you have an explanation for that Romney you pulled on Murphy at 2B?
   67. AJMcCringleberry Posted: November 04, 2011 at 12:43 PM (#3986352)
I hate to interrupt this scintillating back and forth, but...

What would you have offered him to come back? He seems to have no upside left at all--I think I'd much rather the Mets find a guy who might surprise us for the couple of million it'd probably take to bring Capuano back.

I don't know what would be a good price for him. His K/BB was over 3, it was just nice to see a Mets pitcher who didn't go to 3 balls on every batter. I wasn't expecting more than a 4 or 5 starter.
   68. Conor Posted: November 04, 2011 at 12:46 PM (#3986353)
Is Niese the new Glendon Rusch? I haven't paid attention to any DIPS debates since about 2001, so, if anyone can let me know what the world decided about these types of pitchers, I'd be much obliged to learn.


That's really funny, because that's exactly who I was thinking about last night after reading this thread.

And also, I didn't realize this until right now, but did you see who ZIPS sees as Niese's #1 comp?

Edit: And on Capuano, he had a 4.04 FIP and 3.67 xFIP last year, that's why I would be interested in bringing him back for another year. Nothing more than a 1 year deal, so maybe we don't have a chance, but I think he outpitched his ERA last year. Even in August and September, he had a combined K:BB ratio of 66:15. (Even if you want to throw out that great Braves st art for whatever reason, it's still like 53:14, which is pretty damn good).

Last year, Capuano had the best K rate of his career (not including 2004, where he threw 88 IP) and the second best BB rate of his career. The home runs were high, like they pretty much always where, and the point about bringing the fences in is a good one, but I would still be interested in him at a year, for around $4-5 million. It's not like we have a ton major league ready pitchers on the farm. Hopefully we will by 2013, but not for next year.
   69. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 04, 2011 at 02:03 PM (#3986386)
Go f*ck yourself, toilet breath.

Do you really have nothing better to do than follow me around saying stupid sh!t? Get a life, c@cksucker.


Joe Sheehan, is that you?
   70. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: November 04, 2011 at 02:16 PM (#3986392)
The Mets aren't going to be really good again (at the earliest) until and unless they hit the jackpot on their young pitching prospects. And that's...a longshot... If two...hit as top of the rotation starters by 2014, and one develops into a solid innings guy (i.e., better than Pelfrey), the foundation for a contenders' rotation will be set and we'll be good to go.


Why does God hate us so?
   71. Ravecc Posted: November 04, 2011 at 02:25 PM (#3986397)
No real offers?


I’d have taken the salary relief, even if meant a couple of Batista starts. The $400k would barely help resign Jose, but maybe they could use it to sign the next Jose.
   72. Ravecc Posted: November 04, 2011 at 02:31 PM (#3986400)
My biggest question is, how is Warthen keeping his job?
   73. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 04, 2011 at 02:53 PM (#3986416)
Is Niese the new Glendon Rusch?


I don't think so.

Niese is a ground ball pitcher with a high rate of hits on fly balls in play; he doesn't allow a high percentage of line drives, which was Rusch's problem. The new dimensions at home, IMO, are going to hurt him more than anyone - some of those long FB hits are going to leave the yard instead.

-- MWE
   74. Lassus Posted: November 04, 2011 at 03:02 PM (#3986422)
My biggest question is, how is Warthen keeping his job?

Concur.
   75. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: November 04, 2011 at 06:13 PM (#3986565)
My biggest question is, how is Warthen keeping his job?

Concur.


Especially with Mazzone -- and now Duncan, probably -- sitting on the sidelines.
   76. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 04, 2011 at 06:20 PM (#3986572)
And FIP ruins another marriage. When will it end?
   77. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 04, 2011 at 06:47 PM (#3986598)
Is Niese the new Glendon Rusch?

I hope not...

OK, 2009-2011, 135 pitchers had 300+ IP, Niese's BABIP of .335 is second worst, Felipe Paulino at .351 is in a league all his own
.350+: 1
.330-.349: 2
.310-.329: 24
.290-.309: 61
.270-.289: 40
.250-.269: 7

267 had 100 to 299ip:
.350+: 5
.330-.349: 10
.310-.329: 63
.290-.309: 80
.270-.289: 55
.250-.269: 33
.230-.249: 18
.210-.229: 3

That's Trevor Bell at .373 and Neftali Feliz at .221
2002-2011, NL only, 600+IP
.350+: 0
.330-.349: 1
.310-.329: 12
.290-.309: 52
.270-.289: 30
.250-.269: 2
.230-.249: 0
.210-.229: 0

The worst is the infamous Glendon Rusch at .332

Where does this leave Niese? It appears really hard to sustain a BABIP as high as his- there is some sel;ection bias going on- because it's hard to pile up 600+ IP with a BABIP that high, because unless your k/9 and k/bb are superlative and no one homers on you- you are gonna give up a lot of runs and if you do that you are not gonna get 600+ IP...
Is there some bad luck involved? Possibly, he;'s got a .337 BABIP, even .315- which is still HIGH would render him noticeably more effective
   78. konaforever Posted: November 04, 2011 at 06:49 PM (#3986602)
Go f*ck yourself, toilet breath.

Do you really have nothing better to do than follow me around saying stupid sh!t? Get a life, c@cksucker.


I'll have what he's having.
   79. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: November 05, 2011 at 07:21 PM (#3987057)
How about an Allan Dykstra projection?
   80. PreservedFish Posted: November 05, 2011 at 07:35 PM (#3987064)
Oh, but here's my question: was Glendon Rusch a phenomenally unlucky pitcher? Or was he the one weirdo that was good enough to strikeout MLB hitters but had a true talent BABIP of .330? What did everyone decide about this?

Around 2000 on BaseballBoards.com, I made a bunch of inflammatory posts on the Braves forum, declaring Glendon Rusch to be better than Tom Glavine. Good times!
   81. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: November 07, 2011 at 09:15 PM (#3988132)
Marlins have reportedly made an offer to Jose.

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