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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, October 24, 2011

2012 ZiPS Projections - New York Yankees

And heeeeeeeere come the pretzels!

Just a reminder, that I’m going in reverse from last year.  Starting next year, I’m going to randomly draw for order.

ZiPS is rather grumpy again about the Yankee starting pitching.  Banuelos and Betances still have a lot of upside, but ZiPS is suspicious about them immediately making an impact in the rotation, given that they both walked way too many batters in AA.  The good news for Yankees fans, of course, is that the team has an open wallet and is likely to be a serious player in the free agent market, especially if they can quickly and neatly deal with the Sabathia situation.

The offense has a lot of guys on the wrong side of 30, but they’ll still have a crazy-good offense.  Not a lot of teams have 6 guys under contract that project to be a league-average 1B offensively or better.

The Sabathia comps, as usual, are pretty funny in that he gets a lot of little guys.  Sabathia outweights Billy Pierce by what, 150 pounds?  However, big pitchers don’t actually have a different aging curve.

Next Up: Boston Red Sox

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Robinson Cano     L    2B   29   .299 .347 .506 156 609  92 182  41   5  25 103  40  76   6   3  121
Mark Teixeira     B    1B   32   .263 .359 .495 147 562  88 148  32   1  32 109  76 112   2   1  122
Curtis Granderson L    CF   31   .256 .346 .495 147 547 104 140  22   8  31  92  71 143  16   7  118
Alex Rodriguez    R    3B   36   .264 .350 .474 108 405  62 107  20   1  21  82  51  89   7   2  115
Jesus Montero     R    C    22   .271 .333 .486 156 576  79 156  37   3  27  93  55 116   0   0  112
Nick Swisher      B    RF   31   .253 .358 .456 142 498  76 126  27   1  24  82  80 129   1   2  113
Andruw Jones      R    LF   35   .234 .335 .455  80 222  31  52  10   0  13  38  32  65   3   1  106
Brett Gardner     L    LF   28   .260 .352 .370 149 462  80 120  17   8   6  39  61  91  43  10   91
Russell Martin    R    C    29   .249 .346 .382 123 422  60 105  17   0  13  58  58  76  10   4   92
Jorge Posada      B    1B   40   .238 .329 .414 105 324  35  77  15   0  14  47  41  80   1   1   94
Eduardo Nunez     R    SS   25   .273 .312 .379 141 480  57 131  23   2   8  48  26  64  21   7   81
Derek Jeter       R    SS   38   .268 .329 .362 129 542  78 145  22   4   7  58  46  84  14   5   82
Justin Maxwell    R    LF   28   .207 .305 .400  94 295  47  61  11   2  14  40  39 121  16   5   84
Jorge Vazquez     R    1B   30   .235 .275 .449 103 405  50  95  18   0  23  77  20 138   0   0   87
Jordan Parraz     R    RF   27   .246 .316 .383 126 459  58 113  25   4  10  54  37  98   6   6   83
Terry Tiffee      B    1B   33   .269 .295 .386  57 223  23  60  14   0   4  24   8  29   0   1   78
Brandon Laird     R    3B   24   .247 .286 .399 156 584  65 144  28   2  19  88  30 121   1   1   78
David Adams       R    2B   25   .255 .314 .376  84 322  42  82  23   2   4  41  24  75   5   6   81
Gary Sanchez      R    C    19   .218 .279 .417 101 381  50  83  15   2  19  60  33 137   1   1   80
Mike Lamb         L    1B   36   .256 .293 .372  80 266  29  68  12   2   5  34  13  32   0   0   74
Austin Romine     R    C    23   .252 .300 .364 125 489  58 123  22   0  11  67  33  98   2   2   74
Chris Dickerson   L    CF   30   .227 .309 .338 103 269  37  61  11   2   5  23  31  84  16   5   71
Francisco CervelliR    C    26   .255 .321 .343  74 216  24  55   8   1   3  31  18  44   2   2   75
Corban Joseph     L    2B   23   .244 .307 .363 151 589  70 144  34   6   8  62  52 131   4   6   76
Greg Golson       R    CF   26   .237 .285 .349 140 490  56 116  16   6   9  42  29 138  18   5   66
Kevin Russo       R    2B   27   .247 .301 .339 116 449  49 111  18   4   5  38  31  94  10   5   68
Jose Gil          R    C    25   .228 .283 .355  80 276  29  63  14   0   7  35  20  62   2   1   67
Ramiro Pena       B    SS   26   .240 .288 .331 105 296  35  71  11   2   4  31  20  57   6   2   63
Eric Chavez       L    3B   34   .238 .288 .336  40 122  13  29   6   0   2  16   9  28   0   0   64
Gustavo Molina    R    C    30   .231 .262 .360  58 186  14  43   9   0   5  23   7  39   0   0   62
Colin Curtis      L    LF   27   .228 .285 .332 106 377  40  86  19   1   6  37  27  81   3   2   62
Melky Mesa        R    CF   25   .199 .261 .346 127 477  55  95  20   4  14  54  33 185  15  10   58
Slade Heathcott   L    CF   21   .217 .285 .331  87 360  48  78  14   3   7  26  30 125  11  15   62
Doug Bernier      R    SS   32   .199 .278 .263  91 281  29  56  11   2   1  23  28  83   3   1   44

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Robinson Cano                         AV/71
Mark Teixeira                 AV/58
Curtis Granderson                                                     AV/69
Alex Rodriguez                                AV/68
Jesus Montero            FR
Nick Swisher                 FR/101                           AV/60           AV/60
Andruw Jones                  AV/99                           AV/91  PO/112   VG/99
Brett Gardner                                                 EX/66   VG/81
Russell Martin           AV
Jorge Posada             PO  FR/106
Eduardo Nunez                        AV/128  FR/111  AV/143                  AV/101
Derek Jeter                                           FR/67
Justin Maxwell                                               VG/105   AV/89  AV/114
Jorge Vazquez                AV/159          PO/102
Jordan Parraz                                                 AV/94          VG/136
Terry Tiffee                 FR/105  PO/101   AV/91
Brandon Laird                AV/101          AV/104           FR/99          FR/112
David Adams                           AV/84  AV/102
Gary Sanchez             FR
Mike Lamb                    PO/102  PO/112  PO/108
Austin Romine            FR
Chris Dickerson                                              VG/119   AV/96  AV/136
Francisco Cervelli       AV
Corban Joseph                        AV/169  AV/104
Greg Golson                                                   VG/87   VG/99   VG/89
Kevin Russo                          FR/105  AV/111          AV/111   FR/99  AV/101
Jose Gil                 AV
Ramiro Pena                           FR/99   VG/99   AV/96           FR/98
Eric Chavez                  FR/101           FR/82
Gustavo Molina           VG  FR/122
Colin Curtis                                                  VG/86   AV/90   AV/87
Melky Mesa                                                   VG/113  AV/132  VG/113
Slade Heathcott                                                      VG/234
Doug Bernier                 AV/106  FR/102  AV/102   PO/70  FR/101

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
CC Sabathia       L      31     3.55    17    8   31   31   218.0  211   86   19   63  189   126
Ivan Nova         R      25     4.44    13   10   31   30   178.3  189   88   20   60  111   100
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Bartolo Colon     R      39     4.77     7    6   20   19   111.3  121   59   17   32   78    93
Phil Hughes       R      26     4.84     9    8   25   22   122.7  127   66   18   44   96    92
Freddy Garcia     R      35     4.85     9    8   23   22   128.0  143   69   18   40   75    92
Hector Noesi      R      25     5.24     6    6   32   14   103.0  120   60   14   35   68    85
A.J. Burnett      R      35     5.31     9   10   28   27   159.3  170   94   25   70  128    84
David Phelps      R      25     5.40     6    7   23   22   121.7  148   73   18   39   73    83
Manny Banuelos    L      21     5.45     7    8   25   25   115.7  128   70   15   65   85    82
Dellin Betances   R      24     5.66     5    7   24   24   105.0  111   66   15   72   85    79
D.J. Mitchell     R      25     6.03     8   11   26   23   134.3  167   90   19   71   69    74
Andrew Brackman   R      26     6.89     5    9   31   17    98.0  121   75   16   73   57    65
Steve Garrison    L      25     7.45     3    7   18   14    67.7   96   56   16   25   27    60
Kei Igawa         L      32     7.53     2    4   20    9    63.3   83   53   15   40   35    59

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
David Robertson   R      27     3.06     4    2   69    0    64.7   50   22    5   34   87   146
Mariano Rivera    R      42     3.12     3    1   53    0    49.0   44   17    4   10   43   143
Rafael Soriano    R      32     3.14     4    2   67    0    63.0   50   22    6   21   74   142
Joba Chamberlain  R      26     3.88     3    2   46    0    46.3   43   20    5   14   45   115
Boone Logan       L      27     3.91     4    2   62    0    48.3   46   21    5   17   48   114
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Pedro Feliciano   L      35     4.30     2    1   33    0    23.0   24   11    2   10   18   104
Brian Gordon      R      33     4.55     3    2   23    7    63.3   69   32    8   16   45    98
Cory Wade         R      29     4.61     4    4   47    0    56.7   62   29    8   13   37    97
Luis Ayala        R      34     4.62     4    3   44    0    50.7   56   26    6   19   32    96
Sergio Mitre      R      31     5.08     1    1   26    2    44.3   49   25    6   17   22    88
Buddy Carlyle     R      34     5.49     2    3   31    2    41.0   46   25    7   20   27    81
Kevin Whelan      R      28     5.55     3    4   46    0    47.0   50   29    7   30   37    80
Damaso Marte      L      37     5.56     0    0   19    0    11.3   12    7    2    6    8    80
Eric Wordekemper  R      28     5.88     2    3   45    0    52.0   63   34    8   25   29    76
George Kontos     R      27     5.93     3    4   38    3    68.3   78   45   14   30   48    75
Logan Kensing     R      29     6.07     1    2   38    0    43.0   52   29    8   18   29    73
Amaury Sanit      R      32     6.98     1    2   17    2    29.7   38   23    6   15   18    64

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Derek Jeter          .307  .376  .438  2727 11147  1944  3425   543    74   256  1330  1090  1839   368   113
Alex Rodriguez       .295  .378  .549  2833 10847  2052  3197   573    33   705  2200  1335  2243   328   138
Robinson Cano        .295  .337  .484  2408  9421  1347  2778   598    71   348  1466   537  1085    72   113
Mark Teixeira        .272  .361  .506  2183  8352  1319  2271   499    24   469  1569  1065  1571    31   124
Andruw Jones         .254  .337  .484  2330  8005  1260  2035   405    36   455  1358   942  1847   161   110
Curtis Granderson    .258  .336  .478  1984  7479  1305  1931   321   129   354  1075   837  1755   197   111
Jorge Posada         .271  .371  .470  1980  6561   949  1775   401    10   295  1132   993  1566    21   119
Nick Swisher         .251  .353  .451  1798  6330   971  1591   358    15   292   974   967  1518    16   111
Russell Martin       .256  .348  .383  1630  5652   788  1448   245     7   153   751   739   911   137    93
Eric Chavez          .266  .341  .471  1418  5065   759  1347   295    21   234   829   588   984    47   112

Player               W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
CC Sabathia        293  171    0    3.66  590  591     4000 3833 1628  368 1211 3349    121
Freddy Garcia      173  123    0    4.26  407  400     2495 2538 1182  313  792 1715    105
Bartolo Colon      168  118    0    4.19  373  367     2321 2343 1082  295  781 1773    109
A.J. Burnett       126  113    0    4.17  328  321     2039 1872  945  216  862 1852    103

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Robinson Cano     2B     65%  15%  10%   7%   3%         Buddy Bell       Lou Whitaker       Chasey Utley
Mark Teixeira     1B     27%  32%  17%  16%   8%        Don Mincher       Paul Konerko       Eddie Murray
Curtis Granderson CF     51%  19%  18%   9%   3%     Brady Anderson     Andy Van Slyke       Mike Cameron
Alex Rodriguez    3B     34%  28%  18%  13%   8%        Bob Elliott       Ken Caminiti          Ken Boyer
Jesus Montero     C      46%  29%  14%   8%   3%         Todd Zeile       Mike Sweeney        Mike Bishop
Nick Swisher      RF     19%  26%  18%  17%  20%      Ken Henderson     Jeff Burroughs          J.T. Snow
Andruw Jones      LF     20%  19%  14%  14%  33%         Jeff Manto         Jay Buhner     Eddie Williams
Brett Gardner     LF     10%  18%  16%  19%  37%           Rudy Law       Eddie Milner       Brett Butler
Russell Martin    C       9%  22%  37%  24%   9%           Al Lopez       Adam Melhuse   Chris Cannizzaro
Jorge Posada      1B      4%  10%  11%  22%  54%       Kevin Millar        Roy Smalley         Bob Brenly
Eduardo Nunez     SS      8%  15%  22%  25%  30%   William Bergolla        John Wehner         Rico Rossy
Derek Jeter       SS      8%  11%  23%  29%  29%       Omar Vizquel        Pie Traynor       Luke Appling
Justin Maxwell    LF      3%  10%  11%  14%  62%      Brad Komminsk       Dante Powell          Joe Hicks
Jorge Vazquez     1B      0%   2%   5%  16%  78%          Juan Diaz       Jason Dubois      Terrel Hansen
Jordan Parraz     RF      0%   2%   4%  10%  84%        Dan Peltier  Jordan Czarniecki        Chris Nowak
Terry Tiffee      1B      1%   2%   4%  13%  81%     Larry Biittner        Glenn Adams       Dusty Wathan
Brandon Laird     3B      0%   3%   8%  16%  72%      Casey Webster      Travis Hanson    Scott Coolbaugh
David Adams       2B      3%   6%   9%  15%  68%          Pat Kelly       Omar Infante        Gene Freese
Gary Sanchez      C      12%  13%  12%  16%  47%         Todd Pratt     Steve Lomasney    Jeff Winchester
Mike Lamb         1B      1%   1%   1%   2%  97%     Larry Biittner        Joe Orsulak        Mark Kotsay
Austin Romine     C       2%   3%   8%  25%  63%   Maxim St. Pierre     Hector Gimenez        Pete Beeler
Chris Dickerson   CF      3%   5%  13%  19%  59%        Gary Pettis    Reggie Williams      Damon Mashore
Francisco CervelliC       3%  11%  12%  19%  55%     Larry Gonzales          Clay Hill     Kirt Manwaring
Corban Joseph     2B      2%   2%   6%  13%  77%      Donnie Murphy      Glenn Hubbard     Nelson Johnson
Greg Golson       CF      0%   1%   5%  16%  78%       Tommy Murphy       Camilo Veras    Herm Winningham
Kevin Russo       2B      1%   1%   3%  10%  84%   Herman Iribarren      Fred Manrique       Marty Malloy
Jose Gil          C       3%   6%   9%  17%  64%    Jeff Winchester          Rob Bowen       Matt Garrick
Ramiro Pena       SS      2%   3%   9%  17%  69%         Pat Osborn         Joe Dunlap        Joey Aragon
Eric Chavez       3B      2%   0%   1%   3%  95%          Wes Helms         Jason Wood         Dave McKay
Gustavo Molina    C       1%   3%   2%   6%  89%     Charlie Greene       Pedro Grifol      Dane Sardinha
Colin Curtis      LF      0%   0%   0%   1%  99%         Scott Seal        Jess Graham    Sean Drinkwater
Melky Mesa        CF      0%   0%   1%   5%  93%     Darren Blakely    Gerald Williams         Jeff Doerr
Slade Heathcott   CF      2%   1%   3%   5%  89%           Mel Hall      Kevin Wiggins        Shawn Jeter
Doug Bernier      SS      0%   0%   1%   3%  96%          Ray Oyler     Brandon Chaves     Pablo Martinez

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
David Robertson   RP      77%    18%     5%       Mark Littell           Jim Kern       Bryan Harvey
Mariano Rivera    RP      73%    22%     5%     Trevor Hoffman     Larry Andersen         Doug Jones
Rafael Soriano    RP      67%    28%     5%         Joe Nathan       Rich Gossage           Robb Nen
CC Sabathia       SP      84%    11%     5%       Billy Pierce        Lefty Gomez        Frank Viola
Joba Chamberlain  RP      41%    45%    13%      Mike Connolly    Danny Patterson       Heath Haynes
Boone Logan       RP      40%    45%    15%      Mike Gonzalez      Scott Stewart       Mark Guthrie
Pedro Feliciano   RP      38%    35%    26%        Tony Fossas      Mike Magnante    Vic Darensbourg
Ivan Nova         SP      30%    59%    10%        Jimmy Jones        Tommy Boggs        Storm Davis
Brian Gordon      RP      16%    41%    43%        Gil Heredia        Terry Clark        Terry Leach
Cory Wade         RP      12%    46%    41%      Joseph Haines           Jeff Tam        Julio Mateo
Luis Ayala        RP      18%    37%    45%      Todd Williams       Rodney Myers        Bryan Corey
Bartolo Colon     SP      17%    49%    35%         Jon Lieber        Doug Linton        Mike Morgan
Phil Hughes       SP      13%    54%    34%       Tommy Greene       Juan Acevedo         Adam Eaton
Freddy Garcia     SP      14%    54%    32%        Aaron Small       Dick Ruthven       Kevin Tapani
Sergio Mitre      RP      11%    36%    54%        Bryan Corey         Todd Erdos        Steve Comer
Hector Noesi      SP       1%    23%    76%         Troy Dixon         Rick Davis    Jamie Vermilyea
A.J. Burnett      SP       3%    36%    61%         Hideo Nomo        Jack Morris         Jim Clancy
David Phelps      SP       3%    33%    64%     Ramiro Mendoza    Chien-Ming Wang       Nate Cornejo
Manny Banuelos    SP       3%    33%    64%   Brandon Claussen       Juan Ovalles         Jon Lester
Buddy Carlyle     RP       5%    19%    75%     Jason Childers          David Lee   Darrin Babineaux
Kevin Whelan      RP       2%    19%    80%     Doug Robertson    Franklyn German        Matt Palmer
Damaso Marte      RP      17%    13%    70%      Dave Righetti       Mike Fetters    Vic Darensbourg
Dellin Betances   SP       2%    25%    74%        John Ericks       Shawn Chacon      Everett Stull
Eric Wordekemper  RP       1%    13%    86%       John Koronka         Cary Hiles         Greg Bauer
George Kontos     RP       0%     8%    91%        Ross Powell         Mark Ohlms      Jarrett Grube
D.J. Mitchell     SP       0%     8%    92%     Clint Sodowsky     Carlos Paredes        Jared Wells
Logan Kensing     RP       1%    10%    89%        Roman Colon        Julio Manon          Milt Hill
Andrew Brackman   SP       0%     1%    99%        Keith Davis      Jon Leicester        Jose Segura
Amaury Sanit      RP       1%     5%    95%       Elmer Riddle     Jason Childers      Mike Sullivan
Steve Garrison    SP       0%     1%    99%       Jon Connolly     Craig Anderson         Sam Narron
Kei Igawa         SP       0%     1%    99%        Roger Deago            Ken Ray     Chris Michalak

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Robinson Cano           46%      13%      50%      38%       7%      29%      17%       0%
Mark Teixeira            7%      27%      47%       3%       0%      66%      21%       0%
Curtis Granderson        3%      15%      43%       0%      34%      57%      16%       3%
Alex Rodriguez           9%      20%      31%       0%       0%       6%      13%       1%
Jesus Montero            9%       6%      38%      17%       3%      40%       9%       0%
Nick Swisher             2%      28%      22%       0%       0%      18%      11%       0%
Andruw Jones             2%      11%      27%       0%       0%       0%      10%       0%
Brett Gardner            3%      18%       1%       0%      28%       0%       1%      92%
Russell Martin           1%       8%       1%       0%       0%       1%       1%       3%
Jorge Posada             2%       8%       8%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%
Eduardo Nunez            9%       0%       2%       0%       0%       1%       0%      11%
Derek Jeter              7%       4%       3%       0%       1%       2%       1%       2%
Justin Maxwell           0%       1%       5%       0%       0%       0%       1%       3%
Jorge Vazquez            0%       0%      10%       0%       0%       7%       0%       0%
Jordan Parraz            1%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Terry Tiffee            13%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Brandon Laird            0%       0%       3%       0%       1%       7%       0%       0%
David Adams              2%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Gary Sanchez             0%       0%      15%       0%       0%       5%       2%       0%
Mike Lamb                2%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Austin Romine            1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Chris Dickerson          0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Francisco Cervelli       5%       5%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Corban Joseph            0%       1%       1%       3%      15%       1%       0%       0%
Greg Golson              0%       0%       0%       0%       8%       0%       0%       3%
Kevin Russo              0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Jose Gil                 1%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Ramiro Pena              1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Eric Chavez              1%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Gustavo Molina           1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Colin Curtis             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Melky Mesa               0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       4%
Slade Heathcott          1%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       1%
Doug Bernier             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
David Robertson           75%        94%        98%         0%        85%
Mariano Rivera            68%        94%        38%        73%        77%
Rafael Soriano            70%        94%        98%         6%        68%
CC Sabathia               50%        93%        42%        11%        82%
Joba Chamberlain          33%        82%        71%        15%        58%
Boone Logan               31%        79%        73%         7%        55%
Pedro Feliciano           27%        63%        20%         8%        87%
Ivan Nova                  6%        62%         1%         3%        57%
Brian Gordon              12%        50%         7%        36%        47%
Cory Wade                  9%        51%         2%        57%        30%
Luis Ayala                14%        48%         5%         7%        63%
Bartolo Colon              3%        35%         4%        18%        20%
Phil Hughes                2%        33%        12%         1%        21%
Freddy Garcia              3%        33%         0%         9%        28%
Sergio Mitre              11%        39%         0%         9%        48%
Hector Noesi               0%        16%         0%         3%        25%
A.J. Burnett               0%        12%        13%         0%        12%
David Phelps               0%        10%         0%         5%        27%
Manny Banuelos             0%        10%         4%         0%        37%
Buddy Carlyle              4%        19%         5%         1%        38%
Kevin Whelan               1%        15%        19%         0%        29%
Damaso Marte              17%        30%        15%        12%        47%
Dellin Betances            0%         7%        18%         0%        27%
Eric Wordekemper           0%         7%         0%         1%        38%
George Kontos              0%         6%         3%         0%         9%
D.J. Mitchell              0%         1%         0%         0%        29%
Logan Kensing              1%         8%         5%         3%        19%
Andrew Brackman            0%         0%         0%         0%        13%
Amaury Sanit               1%         3%         3%         2%        15%
Steve Garrison             0%         0%         0%         3%         4%
Kei Igawa                  0%         1%         2%         0%         7%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 24, 2011 at 03:52 PM | 72 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. SG Posted: October 24, 2011 at 04:21 PM (#3973231)
Great stuff Dan. Thank you.

I'm not sure about how Av/143 compares to Fair/67 but does it mean that ZiPS thinks Eduardo NunEz is a better starting SS option than Derek Jeter in 2012?
   2. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: October 24, 2011 at 04:29 PM (#3973239)
It could just be that I'm spoiled but the overall offensive projection doesn't SEEM that great to me. While I would take the over on Granderson and Cano, I can't say that any individual performance seems way out of line either.

EDIT: Lester as the 3rd comp for Banuelos is interesting.
   3. fra paolo Posted: October 24, 2011 at 04:31 PM (#3973243)
A-Rod's lost almost 60 home runs off his extrapolated career total compared to 2011 ZiPS; meanwhile Sabathia has gained almost twenty wins, with an almost identical ERA.
   4. Bourbon Samurai in Asia Posted: October 24, 2011 at 04:32 PM (#3973245)
Zips time already? Sigh, that means the season is almost over.

I guess this means the Yanks spend a zillion bucks on Darvish.
   5. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: October 24, 2011 at 04:33 PM (#3973246)
I'm not sure about how Av/143 compares to Fair/67 but does it mean that ZiPS thinks Eduardo NunEz is a better starting SS option than Derek Jeter in 2012?

Within the realm of Diamond Mind Baseball, yes.
   6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 24, 2011 at 04:39 PM (#3973252)
Going from most hated team to most liked team I'm assuming?

Grandy's projections surprise me a bit. I can't put my finger on it, but for some reason I see him as a guy that will occasionally suffer a Dunn-like god awful season now and then. Probably won't be til after he's left the Yanks and has signed with the Royals.
   7. LionoftheSenate (Brewers v A's World Series) Posted: October 24, 2011 at 04:39 PM (#3973253)
That A-Rod contract is sad in light of this new information.
   8. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: October 24, 2011 at 04:43 PM (#3973258)
Not a lot of teams have 6 guys under contract that project to be a league-average 1B

offensively or better.


Yeah, but only Cano would be an above average fielder at first. /ducks
   9. SG Posted: October 24, 2011 at 04:49 PM (#3973260)
It could just be that I'm spoiled but the overall offensive projection doesn't SEEM that great to me.


On first glance it seems that way, but you have to remember the new offensive environment. My projections look very similar although they're not nearly ready yet, and I had the same thought when I first looked at them. They just seemed low across the board.

Here are the collective AL batting lines over the last four years(minus pitchers & pinch-hitters).

2008_AL: .268/.334/.421
2009_AL: .267/.335/.429
2010_AL: .260/.326/.407
2011_AL: .259/.322/.409

Take Teixeira's 2012 projection of .263/.359/.495 as an example. It's roughly equal to a .272/.372/.510 in 2008 and .271/.373/.519 in 2009.
   10. NJ in DC (Now with temporary employment!) Posted: October 24, 2011 at 04:53 PM (#3973265)
[9] Fair enough. Maybe I'm just feeling the lack of a superstar hitter (based on these projections). Eyeballing it, it looks like the everyday lineup averages out to somewhere around 110 which is pretty good, so I think it is the lack of a stud.
   11. UCCF Posted: October 24, 2011 at 04:58 PM (#3973267)
Man, I love the name Slade Heathcott. He just sounds like a baseball player.
   12. PreservedFish Posted: October 24, 2011 at 04:58 PM (#3973268)
I'm not quite ready to confine Jeter to the land players that nobody's ever heard of.
   13. SG Posted: October 24, 2011 at 05:01 PM (#3973274)
Maybe I'm just feeling the lack of a superstar hitter (based on these projections).


Yeah, mortal Rodriguez for $32M a year stinks.

They probably need someone they'd feel comfortable playing every day at 3B on the bench, because I'd be more surprised than not if Rodriguez exceeds those projected PA. I don't think Nunez is that guy, since 3B do have to field grounders once in a while.

Like you, I think Granderson will exceed that projection, and maybe Cano, but the rest of the projections all look like about what I'd expect. They can win with that offense, but they really need to beef up that rotation.
   14. Danny Posted: October 24, 2011 at 05:08 PM (#3973281)
I would happily take 16:1 odds on A-Rod hitting 30+ HRs in 2012.
   15. Bob Evans Posted: October 24, 2011 at 05:15 PM (#3973289)
Yeah, mortal Rodriguez for $32M a year stinks.

Is that contract really an albatross, though? Will it hold them back from signing Darvish, e.g.? And he's still a better 3B than most.
   16. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 24, 2011 at 05:20 PM (#3973292)
Sabathia with 293 wins? I'll take both the over and the under. Noooooobody will ever again retire with 281-299 wins.
   17. SG Posted: October 24, 2011 at 05:36 PM (#3973314)
Is that contract really an albatross, though?


No, he's not actively hurting the team and he's still an asset to have. The problem is you probably have to assume he'll miss at least 40 games a year now.

Will it hold them back from signing Darvish, e.g.?


I am almost certain that Darvish is going to end up on a team that no one suspects. Nationals, Blue Jays, White Sox. Someone like that.
   18. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: October 24, 2011 at 05:43 PM (#3973321)
Is that contract really an albatross, though? Will it hold them back from signing Darvish, e.g.? And he's still a better 3B than most.
Not actually $32 next year, it goes down to $31 and continues to go down as he ages. Now in theory that gets boosted back up by $6 million when he hits #660, #714 and #755 but ZiPS obviously thinks the Yankees will only be on the hook for that first pay-out.

I doubt it stops them from signing Darvish*. At the moment, 2013 looks like the ugly year in Yankee-land: They have nearly $100 million committed that year to Rodriguez, Jeter, Burnett, Soriano and Teixeira. So that could be pretty bad. On the other hand, more than $44 million of that goes away after that season, so if they're willing to either take a one-year hit or do some silliness with the backloading of contracts, they can probably work around it.

*Whcih is not to say they are a lock to sign Darvish, just that finances won't stop them.
   19. Dan Posted: October 24, 2011 at 05:52 PM (#3973330)
Robinson Cano 2B 65% 15% 10% 7% 3% Buddy Bell Lou Whitaker Chasey Utley


Chasey?
   20. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 24, 2011 at 06:09 PM (#3973344)
Don't know how that extra y got in there.

Those odds are given the expected AB - ZiPS is mostly soured on A-Rod's durability.
   21. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 24, 2011 at 06:15 PM (#3973353)
As always, good stuff, Dan.

Couple of requests, if you don't mind: Dan Brewer and Pat Venditte.
   22. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: October 24, 2011 at 06:42 PM (#3973389)
Awesome as always Dan! An above average but not great offense combined with a slightly below average rotation doesn't sound like a playoff team though.
   23. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 24, 2011 at 06:44 PM (#3973391)
Thanks, Dan.

Jesus Montero's comps are funny, then intriguing, then sad. The funny part is Montero being compared to two young catchers who went on to respectable careers as first basemen.

The intriguing, then sad part is Michael Bishop. This is a kid who managed a 1000 OPS between his age 20 and 21 seasons, back in 1980. A very fair comp for Montero, by the numbers. He was playing in the California, Texas, and Pacific Coast Leagues, which I understand were about as hitter-friendly back then as they are now, but given the era, those are great numbers. The Angels appear to have been unable to pick a position for him, as he put up those numbers while filling in at 3B, 1B, OF, and C. Bishop had a weaker but still solid enough year as a 22-year-old in AAA (800 OPS while playing four positions), and when the Angels committed to him as a catcher in 1982, he posted a good 875 OPS. Somehow Bishop never even managed a call-up, and he signed as a minor league free agent with the Mets in 1983.

The Mets continued the trend of jerking Bishop around - he was demoted to double-A and shifted back to 1B. He destroyed AA pitching for Jackson, but his callup to AAA coincided with a move back behind the plate for whatever reason. Bishop struggled in Tidewater and did little with his cup of coffee in the majors. That's where the records end.

As best as I can tell, Bishop disappears from baseball after 1983, despite being just 24 years old, with a solid to quite impressive minor league record. I tried searching for a NPB record for Bishop - a good bat who perhaps didn't have a position and certainly didn't get a fair chance seems like the sort of guy who would have tried out Japanese baseball in the 1980s, but I can find no record of him playing baseball after '83.

Baseball-reference has a note saying that Bishop died in Bakersfield, CA in 2005, at the age of 46. That's really sad. I thought I'd be able to find a record of Bishop through an obituary, but I'm getting zip from Google or Lexis-Nexis.

Does anyone remember what happened to Michael Bishop?
   24. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: October 24, 2011 at 06:59 PM (#3973398)
I doubt it stops them from signing Darvish*. At the moment, 2013 looks like the ugly year in Yankee-land: They have nearly $100 million committed that year to Rodriguez, Jeter, Burnett, Soriano and Teixeira. So that could be pretty bad. On the other hand, more than $44 million of that goes away after that season, so if they're willing to either take a one-year hit or do some silliness with the backloading of contracts, they can probably work around it.


Not sure about it, but I didn't think you could backload posting fees. I thought it was all up front. May be wrong though.
   25. Walt Davis Posted: October 24, 2011 at 07:22 PM (#3973422)
Man, folks are missing all the interesting stuff!*

Andruw!

Jesus! If he really is a FR at C, then he's a major asset.

Romine! Look at that comp list -- Maxim St. Pierre!

Swisher. :-( That comp list (and projection) suggests the end is nigh. Henderson and Burroughs ended at 34 and didn't top 500 PA ages 31-34; Snow lasted longer but never topped 500 PA after 32. It's easy to see Swisher lasting as long as Snow (or Kevin Millar say) given he can play a decent 1B and is a switch-hitter but he'll be pretty marginal pretty soon.

Blasphemy! Is this the first time Mariano is not the top projected reliever in baseball? Not even tops on his own team. Time to upgrade the software.

Betances?? He's touted as a pretty prized prospect around these parts but a 5.60 ERA for a 24-year-old doesn't sound too impressive to me.

Nitpick: Bell seems odd as Cano's #1 comp. Bell never hit for anything like that kind of power. He did have a big year (OPS+ wise) at 28 but wasn't in Cano's league at 26 and 27. I know there aren't a lot of 2B that match Cano's profile so it's not surprising that ZiPS went outside the box but a moderate power 3B seems an odd choice. Even the crappy sims at b-r turn up Brett (too good at those ages), Torre (just about right) and David Wright (too many walks and that plunging BA thing). Positionally, Vidro or Alomar would seem better comps than Bell; non-positionally Yount or Bernie Williams (too many walks).

* interesting stuff = trivial bits I noticed
   26. Dan Posted: October 24, 2011 at 07:48 PM (#3973445)
Jesus! If he really is a FR at C, then he's a major asset.


Those catcher ratings are just for throwing, not overall defense.
   27. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: October 24, 2011 at 07:51 PM (#3973447)
Blasphemy!

I didn't miss that (or Andruw), and that was the same word I thought of using. But since I couldn't think of anything else funny too say, I didn't bother...
   28. Ebessan Posted: October 24, 2011 at 07:54 PM (#3973448)
Man, I love the name Slade Heathcott. He just sounds like a baseball player.

He's no Blast Hardcheese.
   29. Greg K Posted: October 24, 2011 at 07:58 PM (#3973455)
I figured this would be as good a place as any. I just downloaded DMB, though don't have a disc yet. Is there a place to download any old thing for free just to give the game a whirl? I'm intending to use it to transfer my 6-team fictional table top league but that's going to take quite a while to do. I was hoping in the mean time to just play a game or two to see what it's like.
   30. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 24, 2011 at 07:59 PM (#3973460)
I'll make sure to do Venditte and Brewer. Not sure why I didn't do Venditte since I did him last year.

Greg, email me and I can give you something to play with.

DSzymborski@gmail.com
   31. Greg K Posted: October 24, 2011 at 08:00 PM (#3973464)
Will do, thanks a lot!
   32. Srul Itza Posted: October 24, 2011 at 08:03 PM (#3973466)
I'll take the over on Mo's ERA+
   33. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: October 24, 2011 at 08:08 PM (#3973472)
Here's a homemade All-Time Greats disk for DMB.
   34. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: October 24, 2011 at 09:03 PM (#3973531)
Not sure about it, but I didn't think you could backload posting fees. I thought it was all up front. May be wrong though.
I don't think you can, but I was just talking about free agent contracts in general, not Darvish in particular.

Awesome as always Dan! An above average but not great offense combined with a slightly below average rotation doesn't sound like a playoff team though.
Well, depends how many playoff teams Bud is letting in! Jokes aside, I would guess the Yankees make a real effort at improving their rotation one way or another.
   35. Greg K Posted: October 24, 2011 at 09:16 PM (#3973540)
Thanks for the disc Dan.

I didn't realize there was pitch-by-pitch play-by-play! Endless fun.
   36. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: October 24, 2011 at 09:19 PM (#3973541)
I appreciate any mention of Jeff Manto.
   37. Jim Wisinski Posted: October 24, 2011 at 09:31 PM (#3973553)
Going from most hated team to most liked team I'm assuming?


It would be really great if, instead of switching to random draw, Dan started deciding different odd sets of criteria like that each season to determine the order.
   38. John DiFool2 Posted: October 24, 2011 at 09:31 PM (#3973554)
Chasey?


Don't know how that extra y got in there.


That would have been his nickname 100 years ago.
   39. JJ1986 Posted: October 24, 2011 at 09:38 PM (#3973557)
I wonder who the most liked team would be. Tampa?
   40. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: October 24, 2011 at 11:35 PM (#3973622)
I wonder who the most liked team would be. Tampa?
If Dan is doing the list, that'd be Baltimore
   41. Jim Wisinski Posted: October 24, 2011 at 11:43 PM (#3973630)
If Dan is doing the list, that'd be Baltimore


I wouldn't be so sure about that, have you seen the Orioles the last decade+?
   42. Rays&Sox; Posted: October 25, 2011 at 12:35 AM (#3973696)
With the AL ERA down to 4.19 this year, are 96 & 108 ERA+ still the league average for SP and RP? Also, could you give us the average OPS+ for each position this year? Thanks.
   43. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: October 25, 2011 at 12:48 AM (#3973749)
With the AL ERA down to 4.19 this year, are 96 & 108 ERA+ still the league average for SP and RP?


Sigh.
   44. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: October 25, 2011 at 01:23 AM (#3973837)
Wow, I did not realize how bad an August onwards Brett Gardner had.
   45. fra paolo Posted: October 25, 2011 at 01:29 AM (#3973855)
Wrong thread.
   46. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 25, 2011 at 02:16 AM (#3974014)
Looks like ZiPS doesn't see Teixeira's average coming back.

Jeter's defensive projection (Fr) surprised me, and so does his offensive projection (82 OPS+). I guess ZiPS sees Jeter cratering after all.

I see ZiPS thinks ARod's decline is here to stay. I still see a couple more big seasons from him. Don't know when they'll come.

By reputation, the defensive ratings for Teixeira/Cano/ARod would seem to be better than AV. Especially the first two.
   47. Gotham Dave Posted: October 25, 2011 at 02:47 AM (#3974161)
44 - Gardner is very, very streaky. He doesn't really have any setting between what he did in August and September and what he did against Detroit in the ALDS.

I personally enjoy that Freddy Garcia's #1 comp is Aaron Small.
   48. Rays&Sox; Posted: October 25, 2011 at 01:23 PM (#3974710)
Sorry. What I meant was where did the AL starters average ERA land... Somewhere around 4.36 with RP 3.88? Thanks 'zop. Helpful.
   49. SG Posted: October 25, 2011 at 01:38 PM (#3974719)
According to Baseball Reference's league splits, AL starters had a collective ERA of 4.21 compared to 3.82 for relievers. ERA+ of 97 and 107 respectively.
   50. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: October 25, 2011 at 01:41 PM (#3974722)
I wonder who the most liked team would be. Tampa?


If Dan is doing the list, that'd be Baltimore

And if Yankee fans are doing the list, they might agree, since the Birds put the "over" in "It's over".
   51. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 25, 2011 at 03:58 PM (#3974909)
I use 5-year averages for starter/reliever, so it's still 96/108
   52. The Hal Lanier Hitting Academy Posted: October 25, 2011 at 06:06 PM (#3975096)
I'm a little surprised that Gardner's playing time is slightly decreasing.
   53. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 26, 2011 at 01:00 AM (#3975438)
ZiPS has Jeter finishing with 3425 hits, 7th in MLB history & the most by any right-handed American League hitter. Not bad.
   54. jwb Posted: October 26, 2011 at 02:45 AM (#3975527)
Don't know how that extra y got in there.

I frequently confuse him with Chasey Lain, too.
   55. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 26, 2011 at 02:59 AM (#3975534)
I frequently confuse him with Chasey Lain, too.


Primey.
   56. Silencio Posted: October 26, 2011 at 07:23 AM (#3975604)
Jeter's batting average seems awfully low. The rest of the projection looks good, but ZIPS has him with ~.302 BABIP(from my math and assumptions of sac hits and flies) which seems way too low. His lowest BABIP in a season before this would be 307, 2011 it was 336 and for his career 355. Nothing from his batted ball numbers shows that we should expect a huge dropoff and he still has good speed. Even in a pessimistic projection I would think that number should be .315. Id take the over on Jeter batting 280 in 2012.
   57. Barnaby Jones Posted: October 26, 2011 at 07:33 PM (#3976141)
That would have been his nickname 100 years ago.


Or if he'd played for Bobby Cox.
   58. Something Other Posted: October 27, 2011 at 04:40 AM (#3976691)
ZiPS has Jeter finishing with 3425 hits, 7th in MLB history & the most by any right-handed American League hitter. Not bad.
Not happening. That's three more productive years. Granted, the Yankees are going to run him out there until he hits a buck and a quarter for a full year, but that's not a productive year.
   59. ecwcat Posted: October 27, 2011 at 04:37 PM (#3976926)
So if this is true: "Standard Disclaimer: Projections are not predictions. Dave Cameron put it best when he said “Projections are information about what we think we currently know, while predictions are speculation about things that we probably cannot know.”

then what's there to discuss?
   60. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 27, 2011 at 04:53 PM (#3976952)
ZiPS has Jeter finishing with 3425 hits, 7th in MLB history & the most by any right-handed American League hitter. Not bad.

Not happening. That's three more productive years.

Jeter has 3088 hits, so the ZiPS mark is only 337 hits away -- not that far for a guy who hit .331 after coming off the DL last year, and possibly achievable in less than 3 full seasons.
   61. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 27, 2011 at 05:01 PM (#3976963)
That would have been his nickname 100 years ago.


That, or some kind of horrible slur against the ethnic or the disabled.
   62. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 27, 2011 at 05:17 PM (#3976985)
Chasey?


Don't know how that extra y got in there.

That would have been his nickname 100 years ago.

Or the hockey nickname, according to the hockey nickname algorithm:
1) Add -y to the first or first and second syllables of the last name unless
2) Last name ends in a -y, then use rule 1 on the first name.
3) If first and last name end in -y, don't allow him to play hockey.
   63. Something Other Posted: October 27, 2011 at 10:25 PM (#3977290)
So if this is true: "Standard Disclaimer: Projections are not predictions. Dave Cameron put it best when he said “Projections are information about what we think we currently know, while predictions are speculation about things that we probably cannot know.”

then what's there to discuss?
This puzzles me. there's nothing of a prediction in a projection? How can that be? And how would the numbers of a "projection" differ from the numbers of a "prediction" if the same information is used?

Cameron's not a particularly good writer, and he doesn't love language, so I tend not to put much stock in his pronouncements when he veers into the oracular. Still, it's a mystifying assertion on any level.

ZiPS has Jeter finishing with 3425 hits, 7th in MLB history & the most by any right-handed American League hitter. Not bad.


Not happening. That's three more productive years.


Jeter has 3088 hits, so the ZiPS mark is only 337 hits away -- not that far for a guy who hit .331 after coming off the DL last year, and possibly achievable in less than 3 full seasons.
You're absolutely right. I made two stupid mistakes. For no good reason I recalled Jeter had something like 3028 hits, not 3088, and I didn't recall how well he hit late in the season. While a lot of folks claim that pre and post break (for instance) splits aren't predictive, I don't agree, especially not for older players, or injured players. His good performance late in the season increases the likelihood of a decent seasons in 2012 (and beyond), according to my special tool.

edit: I'm helping a friend who's a pro se plaintiff anticipate issues wrt getting recorded conversations between himself and one other person admitted into evidence. Can any lawyers out there commend me to a treatise on such?
   64. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: October 27, 2011 at 11:18 PM (#3977309)
This puzzles me. there's nothing of a prediction in a projection? How can that be? And how would the numbers of a "projection" differ from the numbers of a "prediction" if the same information is used?

A prediction is saying "this will happen", a projection is sayong "considering all the things that possibly could happen, and the likelihood of each, this is the average".

Edit: Pre-game beer related typos.
   65. Something Other Posted: October 27, 2011 at 11:56 PM (#3977330)
@64: I rarely hear a prediction stated that way. More, "this is the likeliest outcome", which is the weighted average of all possibilities. I think the biggest problem is that Cameron's statement is meaningless. He thinks he's thinking, but he's not offering any light. There's a lot of overlap, as with the definitions, below. Thesaurus's consider the words as somewhat synonymous.

Projection: "4. A prediction or an estimate of something in the future, based on present data or trends."
Prediction "Noun 1. prediction prediction - the act of predicting (as by reasoning about the future) anticipation, prevision abstract thought, logical thinking, reasoning - thinking that is coherent and logical; syn. projection - a prediction made by extrapolating from past observations
   66. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: October 28, 2011 at 12:10 AM (#3977343)
More, "this is the likeliest outcome", which is the weighted average of all possibilities.

Those aren't the same thing.
   67. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: October 28, 2011 at 12:26 AM (#3977400)
edit: I'm helping a friend who's a pro se plaintiff anticipate issues wrt getting recorded conversations between himself and one other person admitted into evidence. Can any lawyers out there commend me to a treatise on such?
Not an attorney, but FWIW, some states require both parties to consent to the recording of a phone call, and others only require one. If your friend is in a two-person state and the other party didn't give consent, he could be in actual trouble, so he should find that out ASAP.
   68. Something Other Posted: October 28, 2011 at 01:26 AM (#3977571)
@67--good point, RB. My friend is in a one party state and a lot of the calls were between a one- and two- (or "all-") party state. Some of the conversations were on the phone, some were in person (in one or the other state, so your point about the dangers of taping in a two-party state are well-taken).

Federal Law requires only one-party consent, so my guess (which may not be worth much) at this point is that it's acceptable to record and effectively offer into evidence calls between a one-party and two-party state, though I imagine case law for this includes a lot of fussing. Don't know if any of the above should affect my friend's decision about which court (federal or state) to file his complaint in.

The pertinent section afaik is Federal Rules of Evidence, Title 18 Part 1 Ch. 119 funnysquigglething 2511, which reads

(2) (d):

It shall not be unlawful under this chapter for a person not acting under color of law to intercept a wire, oral, or electronic communication where such person is a party to the communication or where one of the parties to the communication has given prior consent to such interception unless such communication is intercepted for the purpose of committing any criminal or tortious act in violation of the Constitution or laws of the United States or of any State.


So, tortious is an interesting choice of words there, but doesn't seem to mean "tort-related", but rather, along the lines of "wrongdoing". So that might put my pal in the clear.
   69. Oh Votto...Canadas Overrated Posted: November 23, 2011 at 02:02 AM (#3999879)
Can we get a projections for Jeff Marquez? Thanks.
   70. Hunter Posted: December 01, 2011 at 10:38 PM (#4004663)
Nice job Dan,
You predicted 150 wins for the yankees, bunch of crap!!!
   71. RJ in TO Posted: December 01, 2011 at 10:50 PM (#4004674)
Nice job Dan,
You predicted 150 wins for the yankees, bunch of crap!!!


Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.
   72. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 01, 2011 at 11:40 PM (#4004712)
Nice job Dan,
You predicted 150 wins for the yankees, bunch of crap!!!

and 147 losses
315 game starts
352 homers allowed

:-)

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