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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, October 30, 2011

2012 ZiPS Projections - Philadelphia Phillies

Not a whole lot of surprises here.  A ton of hitters that played in the organization get projected this year, mostly because the team employed a massive number of semi-familiar names this

year.  Brent Clevlen!  Rich Thompson!  Tagg Bozied!  A lot of the minors looked a bit like the 2004 waiver wire in your fantasy baseball league.

The starting pitching made up for a lot of sins in the form of an overrated offense and should continue to do so, even if they can’t bring Roy Oswalt back at a reduced salary.  Blanton or

Kendrick won’t pitch anywhere near as well as Vance Worley did, but those are still good numbers for 5th starters.  Going back to the offense, the team was only 7th in the NL runs scored in

a hitter’s park, which should be a pretty good indication that the Phils had one of the top rotations of the last half-century given that they won 102 games.  The offense won’t get better -

Hunter Pence does have a full season, but he’s a good, not great player, Domonic Brown is in the same category at the moment, and every other starter is on the part of the aging curve that

would make the good starting point on a killer sledding hill.

The team doesn’t have a whole lot of depth, but that’s understandable as they’ve rightfully traded a lot of talent to try and get the team over the top.  They disappointed in the playoffs,

but it was still the right idea.

The interesting storyline to watch in the long-term is how Ruben Amaro and the organization transition from the current dynasty to a future one, an inflection point that the pitching can’t

hold off forever.

Next Up: New York Mets

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Chase Utley       L    2B   33   .265 .362 .448 122 460  71 122  23   5  17  65  54  74  15   1  116
Shane Victorino   B    CF   31   .274 .342 .450 145 576  91 158  29  12  16  68  53  73  23   7  110
Ryan Howard       L    1B   32   .248 .335 .485 144 540  79 134  26   3  32 113  67 173   2   1  117
Domonic Brown     L    RF   24   .273 .330 .465 148 495  71 135  26   6  19  82  44 135  19  10  110
Hunter Pence      R    RF   29   .281 .334 .450 156 605  85 170  31   4  21  95  49 115  12   7  108
Jimmy Rollins     B    SS   33   .268 .330 .410 126 515  74 138  26   4  13  62  48  53  25   6   97
Carlos Ruiz       R    C    33   .269 .360 .383 120 368  41  99  22   1   6  42  46  47   1   1  100
Jack Cust         L    DH   33   .232 .357 .403 107 357  52  83  17   1  14  55  68 128   1   1  104
Ben Francisco     R    RF   30   .256 .331 .414 107 297  36  76  18   1   9  43  30  58   7   3   99
Raul Ibanez       L    LF   40   .255 .307 .430 134 495  61 126  30   3  17  80  39  97   3   1   95
John Mayberry     R    CF   28   .246 .300 .427 138 447  57 110  26   2  17  62  32 111  11   3   93
Matt Rizzotti     L    1B   26   .252 .331 .391 137 496  53 125  28   1  13  62  57 150   2   1   93
John Bowker       L    LF   28   .255 .311 .410 141 459  59 117  23   3  14  71  37 102   4   3   92
Placido Polanco   R    3B   36   .278 .324 .364 124 500  59 139  21   2   6  54  32  43   4   1   84
Erik Kratz        R    C    32   .237 .307 .395  96 337  41  80  20   0  11  45  28  80   2   1   87
Brandon Moss      L    LF   28   .233 .302 .416 143 481  61 112  28   3  18  76  45 140   5   6   90
Jeff Larish       L    1B   29   .225 .310 .395  99 334  39  75  16   1  13  43  39 106   2   2   88
Ross Gload        L    1B   36   .263 .304 .369  96 160  16  42   8   0   3  18   9  24   1   0   80
Rich Thompson     L    CF   33   .242 .299 .341 125 455  62 110  19   7   4  33  29  86  28   3   71
Scott Podsednik   L    CF   36   .264 .311 .352  89 341  40  90  13   4   3  25  23  56  17   7   77
Michael Spidale   R    LF   30   .282 .319 .344 133 489  56 138  15   3   3  36  20  70  17   9   78
Kevin Frandsen    R    2B   30   .262 .311 .359 109 393  47 103  19   2   5  43  15  39   6   3   79
Tagg Bozied       R    1B   32   .224 .305 .401  80 277  34  62  17   1  10  36  29  93   1   3   88
Brent Clevlen     R    RF   28   .238 .299 .377  88 324  39  77  14   2   9  42  28 112   5   2   80
Matt Miller       R    RF   29   .256 .315 .343  97 367  42  94  16   2   4  61  30  68   2   1   77
Freddy Galvis     B    SS   22   .261 .299 .359 156 602  74 157  26   6   7  49  30 113  19  10   76
Harold Garcia     B    2B   25   .252 .298 .356  78 317  32  80  12   3   5  27  15  90  17   8   75
Delwyn Young      B    RF   30   .233 .284 .368 127 361  39  84  20   1   9  43  23  93   1   0   73
Sebastian Valle   R    C    21   .243 .273 .381 128 493  46 120  25   2  13  62  20 144   1   1   73
Steve Singleton   B    2B   26   .248 .284 .366 147 552  65 137  34   5   7  51  23  77   4   6   73
Brian Schneider   L    C    35   .233 .309 .327  54 159  15  37   6   0   3  18  17  33   0   0   71
Carlos Rivero     R    3B   24   .242 .287 .353 148 563  59 136  29   2  10  63  35 132   3   3   71
Wilson Valdez     R    2B   34   .253 .298 .336 106 304  38  77  13   3   2  31  19  42   4   3   70
Cory Sullivan     L    LF   32   .239 .306 .315  74 197  24  47   8   2   1  26  20  35   4   1   67
Joe Savery        L    P    26   .256 .301 .327  61 156  13  40   6   1   1  13  10  30   0   1   69
Cesar Hernandez   B    2B   22   .259 .300 .312 129 474  50 123  11   4   2  36  26  95  25  12   65
Joel Naughton     L    C    25   .241 .285 .328  50 174  17  42   6   0   3  22  11  40   0   0   64
Pete Orr          L    3B   33   .229 .277 .336 131 437  48 100  19   5   6  38  22  92  15   7   64
Terry Evans       R    RF   30   .219 .264 .346 110 379  47  83  20   2   8  42  19 117  11   4   62
Michael Martinez  B    3B   29   .231 .277 .339 108 351  42  81  13   5   5  42  20  66   9   6   64
Josh Barfield     R    2B   29   .246 .268 .345 110 403  38  99  19   3   5  44  13  67   8   6   63
Ronnie Belliard   R    3B   37   .229 .283 .319  63 188  24  43   9   1   2  21  14  38   2   1   61
Jiwan James       B    CF   23   .241 .288 .325 154 631  83 152  27   7   4  48  36 170  26  21   64
Tuffy Gosewisch   R    C    28   .228 .282 .330 106 364  34  83  19   0   6  38  22  82   1   4   63
Ozzie Chavez      B    SS   28   .232 .282 .303  89 297  28  69  10   1   3  27  19  65   4   5   57
Dane Sardinha     R    C    33   .184 .250 .274  58 179  17  33   7   0   3  12  14  62   0   0   41

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Chase Utley                           VG/90
Shane Victorino
Ryan Howard                  FR/122
Domonic Brown                                                AV/164          AV/164
Hunter Pence                                                                  AV/98
Jimmy Rollins                                         AV/58
Carlos Ruiz              AV
Jack Cust                                                    PO/110          PO/110
Ben Francisco                                                 AV/90   PO/84   FR/95
Raul Ibanez                                                   PO/58
John Mayberry                FR/104                           VG/69  FR/105   AV/56
Matt Rizzotti                FR/124
John Bowker                  AV/122                          VG/128          AV/101
Placido Polanco                       VG/40   VG/56
Erik Kratz               AV  FR/114
Brandon Moss                                                 AV/102   FR/95   FR/82
Jeff Larish                   FR/73          PO/101          PO/109
Ross Gload                    FR/93                                          PO/124
Rich Thompson                                                 VG/90   VG/92   VG/84
Scott Podsednik                                               AV/65  FR/124  FR/119
Michael Spidale                                               AV/72  PO/114  PO/113
Kevin Frandsen               FR/103   AV/90  AV/109  FR/116
Tagg Bozied                  FR/111          PO/117          FR/125          FR/117
Brent Clevlen                                                AV/119   AV/97  VG/186
Matt Miller                                                   AV/95  PO/118   FR/92
Freddy Galvis                                AV/119   AV/89
Harold Garcia                        FR/101  FR/109
Delwyn Young                          FR/98  FR/112          AV/112          FR/144
Sebastian Valle          AV
Steve Singleton                       AV/99  FR/111  PO/104
Brian Schneider          FR
Carlos Rivero                        FR/115  AV/143  FR/120
Wilson Valdez                         FR/89  FR/100   AV/65  AV/116  FR/119  AV/117
Cory Sullivan                                                 AV/82   FR/72  AV/111
Joe Savery                   AV/101                          FR/114
Cesar Hernandez                      FR/120
Joel Naughton            FR
Pete Orr                             AV/100   AV/78   FR/95  AV/114   FR/91   AV/90
Terry Evans                                                  PO/103  PO/103  FR/109
Michael Martinez                     AV/175   FR/97  FR/115  AV/114  FR/114  AV/116
Josh Barfield                        VG/102  AV/113           AV/89  FR/112
Ronnie Belliard              AV/115   FR/99  AV/101
Jiwan James                                                   AV/86   AV/95   AV/86
Tuffy Gosewisch          AV
Ozzie Chavez                         AV/137  AV/115   AV/95   AV/98  FR/146
Dane Sardinha            AV

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Cliff Lee         L      33     2.83    16    7   29   29   210.0  187   66   17   34  200   140
Roy Halladay      R      35     2.83    17    7   28   28   209.7  194   66   16   32  186   140
Cole Hamels       L      28     3.30    14    8   31   31   199.0  177   73   22   47  187   120
Roy Oswalt        R      34     3.68    10    7   25   25   154.0  150   63   14   39  114   108
Vance Worley      R      24     3.85    11    9   32   29   168.3  164   72   17   57  137   103
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Kyle Kendrick     R      27     4.41     8    8   31   21   134.7  143   66   17   38   66    90
Joe Blanton       R      31     4.43     5    5   19   18   107.7  114   53   15   28   84    90
Austin Hyatt      R      26     4.73     7    8   26   22   120.0  124   63   16   53  105    84
Tim Redding       R      34     4.88     5    6   19   16    94.0  108   51   11   31   55    81
Eddie Bonine      R      31     4.90     3    4   24    9    68.0   81   37    8   18   36    81
Trevor May        R      22     5.01     8   10   26   25   125.7  119   70   15   94  135    79
David Bush        R      32     5.24     5    7   25   19   110.0  126   64   17   36   68    76
Ryan Edell        L      28     5.24     6    8   27   21   127.0  158   74   17   30   77    76
Jonathan PettiboneR      21     5.28     7   11   25   25   133.0  150   78   19   53   73    75
Brian Bass        R      30     5.30     5    7   35   12   103.7  123   61   11   45   61    75
Nate Bump         R      35     5.58     4    6   18   18    92.0  121   57   11   24   35    71
J.C. Ramirez      R      23     5.60     7   12   24   24   127.0  151   79   16   59   71    71
Brody Colvin      R      21     5.78     4    8   24   23   113.7  138   73   15   56   63    69
Tyson Brummett    R      27     5.87     4    7   35   12    96.7  124   63   13   37   51    68
Ryan Feierabend   L      26     5.92     5   10   25   22   117.0  146   77   20   39   60    67

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Ryan Madson       R      31     3.00     5    2   62    0    60.0   52   20    5   17   63   132
Antonio Bastardo  L      26     3.17     4    2   58    0    48.3   37   17    5   21   59   126
Justin De Fratus  R      24     3.64     4    3   55    0    71.7   65   29    7   29   70   109
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Brad Lidge        R      35     3.69     1    1   37    0    31.7   28   13    3   16   33   108
Michael Schwimer  R      26     3.76     6    5   55    0    69.3   63   29    7   29   71   106
Jose Contreras    R      40     3.86     2    2   32    0    28.0   27   12    3   10   24   103
Phillippe Aumont  R      23     3.86     4    3   46    0    53.7   48   23    5   28   55   103
Michael Stutes    R      25     4.25     5    5   61    0    72.0   65   34    8   40   68    94
David Herndon     R      26     4.36     3    3   52    0    66.0   69   32    7   24   44    91
Joe Savery        L      26     4.41     3    3   42    0    51.0   54   25    5   18   34    90
Danys Baez        R      34     4.70     3    3   39    0    44.0   46   23    5   17   27    84
Les Walrond       L      35     4.82     3    3   30    0    37.3   37   20    4   24   31    82
Michael Cisco     R      25     4.87     4    5   30    0    57.3   54   31    7   39   43    82
Scott Mathieson   R      28     4.97     2    3   37    6    63.3   63   35    9   38   55    80
Juan Perez        L      33     5.05     3    3   42    0    41.0   39   23    6   28   41    79

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Jimmy Rollins        .268  .323  .419  2431 10157  1508  2718   539   122   253  1101   811  1136   506    94
Placido Polanco      .297  .341  .398  2000  7673  1076  2276   367    36   114   800   454   575    88    94
Chase Utley          .276  .361  .470  1938  7328  1172  2022   402    66   296  1113   755  1136   188   117
Raul Ibanez          .277  .338  .466  2045  7231  1030  2004   428    48   280  1188   667  1281    49   110
Hunter Pence         .281  .332  .454  1763  6860   915  1926   354    53   242  1004   527  1228   130   109
Ryan Howard          .261  .347  .509  1859  6971  1044  1821   338    33   441  1448   877  2044    24   123
Carlos Ruiz          .262  .347  .376  1346  4145   442  1087   245     6    71   473   472   488    19    93

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Roy Halladay          283  144    1    3.21  553  527     3802 3671 1358  318  726 2993    134
Cliff Lee             221  126    0    3.46  459  454     3102 3000 1191  300  646 2618    120
Roy Oswalt            219  147    0    3.47  505  490     3145 3083 1214  287  769 2460    120
Cole Hamels           201  139    0    3.48  485  479     3095 2799 1195  381  761 2887    118
Joe Blanton            94   87    0    4.39  302  286     1773 1898  864  220  484 1228     95

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Chase Utley       2B     81%  12%   5%   2%   1%       Lou Whitaker         Lonny Frey     Dick McAuliffe
Shane Victorino   CF     44%  29%  21%   5%   1%        Brian McRae      Mitch Webster       Steve Finley
Ryan Howard       1B     14%  34%  22%  23%   8%        Nick Esasky        Jim Gentile        Carlos Pena
Domonic Brown     RF     10%  29%  25%  25%  13%       Lloyd Moseby        Leon Durham       Junior Felix
Hunter Pence      RF      6%  26%  26%  26%  16%       Jermaine Dye           Dan Ford      Rondell White
Jimmy Rollins     SS     31%  30%  27%  13%   0%       Billy Rogell     Tony Fernandez         Julio Lugo
Carlos Ruiz       C      13%  47%  28%  12%   1%       Rick Ferrell          Bob Boone         Spud Davis
Jack Cust         DH      2%  13%  16%  54%  16%      Dwayne Murphy          J.T. Snow          Pete Ward
Ben Francisco     RF      3%   8%  20%  35%  36%    Prentice Redman        Aaron Guiel         Bruce Aven
Raul Ibanez       LF      3%   7%  16%  19%  56%        Dave Parker    George Hendrick      Jim Bottomley
John Mayberry     CF      7%   8%  35%  38%  14%         Mark Smith    Steve Gibralter      Andy Thompson
Matt Rizzotti     1B      0%   2%   8%  34%  57%       Lyle Overbay       Mario Valdez       Joe Vitiello
John Bowker       LF      1%   2%   6%  16%  77%        Randy Braun     Mike Maksudian         Tim Norrid
Placido Polanco   3B      1%   3%   9%  22%  66%         Alvin Dark       Mark Loretta     David Eckstein
Erik Kratz        C       4%  16%  29%  37%  14%         Jody Davis          Tim Laker     Keith McDonald
Brandon Moss      LF      0%   4%   4%   8%  85%        John Jensen  John-Ford Griffin       Tyrone Woods
Jeff Larish       1B      0%   1%   3%  15%  82%      James Jurries         Steve Neal         Jay Gainer
Ross Gload        1B      1%   2%   0%   6%  92%     Larry Biittner         Ray Knight        Glenn Adams
Rich Thompson     CF      2%   2%  13%  40%  45%     Mark Budzinski        Omar Moreno        Tom Goodwin
Scott Podsednik   CF      2%   2%  12%  28%  57%      Willie Wilson          Al Bumbry     Andy Van Slyke
Michael Spidale   LF      0%   1%   1%   1%  98%      Norris Hopper      Jorge Padilla       Alex Johnson
Kevin Frandsen    2B      2%   3%   3%  18%  75%    Rennie Stennett    Robert Eenhoorn        P.J. Forbes
Tagg Bozied       1B      1%   2%   3%  13%  83%        Dustan Mohr      Leroy Stanton       Reed Secrist
Brent Clevlen     RF      1%   1%   2%   6%  92%        Tony Barron       Chris Aguila     George Hinshaw
Matt Miller       RF      1%   1%   1%   2%  96%       Kevin Romine      Jorge Padilla       Joey Hammond
Freddy Galvis     SS      3%   4%  14%  25%  56%    Alfredo Griffin       Omar Infante       Julio Franco
Harold Garcia     2B      2%   2%   4%   7%  87%         Manuel Lee     Robby Thompson         Ron Oester
Delwyn Young      RF      0%   0%   0%   2%  99%       Matt Padgett         Tom Nevers         Paul Felix
Sebastian Valle   C       3%   4%   6%  22%  66%         Bob Melvin     Gilberto Reyes          Tony Pena
Steve Singleton   2B      0%   1%   1%   3%  95%      Javier Colina  Gary Miller-Jones       Brent Butler
Brian Schneider   C       1%   4%   8%  21%  66%        Brent Mayne        Rick Cerone        Jamie Quirk
Carlos Rivero     3B      0%   1%   1%   7%  93%      Travis Hanson     Steve BuecheleChristopher Valaika
Wilson Valdez     2B      0%   1%   2%   6%  92%        Denny Doyle      Edgar Caceres     Don Blasingame
Cory Sullivan     LF      0%   0%   0%   0% 100%       Ryan Fleming          Ken Ramos       Armando Rios
Joe Savery        P       0%   0%   0%   1% 100%      Pete Alborano        Jeff Schulz    James Hoffpauir
Cesar Hernandez   2B      0%   0%   2%   4%  95%          Manny Lee      Derrel Thomas      Harry Chappas
Joel Naughton     C       1%   2%   3%   9%  87%       Roger Hansen         Mike Knapp   Guillermo Garcia
Pete Orr          3B      0%   0%   1%   3%  97%           Dan Rohn    Alfredo Griffin        Tony Taylor
Terry Evans       RF      0%   0%   0%   1% 100%        Sean Barker      Mike Rosamond       Colin Porter
Michael Martinez  3B      1%   1%   1%   2%  96%     Henry Calderon     Pablo Martinez        Kevin Davis
Josh Barfield     2B      1%   1%   1%   0%  99%        Casey Smith      Chris Lemonis       Joe Millette
Ronnie Belliard   3B      1%   1%   2%   1%  97%       Jeff Branson         Pete Suder      Mark Belanger
Jiwan James       CF      0%   0%   0%   4%  97%   Elijah Bonaparte        Brian McRae         Cecil Espy
Tuffy Gosewisch   C       0%   2%   2%   4%  93%   Brandon Marsters      Blake Barthol        Craig Tatum
Ozzie Chavez      SS      0%   1%   1%   2%  97%         Gary Green    Toby Gardenhire         Luke Sable
Dane Sardinha     C       0%   0%   0%   1% 100%       Chad Moeller     Charlie Greene  George Mitterwald

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Cliff Lee         SP      89%     6%     5%       Jeff Fassero        John Smiley       Mike Mussina
Roy Halladay      SP      90%     5%     5%        Kevin Brown        Greg Maddux       Mike Mussina
Ryan Madson       RP      67%    28%     5%  Rafael Betancourt          J.J. Putz Jason Isringhausen
Antonio Bastardo  RP      57%    34%    10%      Mike Gonzalez        John Rocker        Al Hrabosky
Cole Hamels       SP      71%    24%     5%      Harvey Haddix      C.C. Sabathia        John Smiley
Justin De Fratus  RP      28%    53%    19%     Alejandro Pena         Bill Simas         Jeff Innis
Roy Oswalt        SP      42%    52%     6%     Shane Reynolds         Bryn Smith        Doug Drabek
Brad Lidge        RP      34%    33%    33%         Roy Thomas       Toby Borland        Rudy Seanez
Michael Schwimer  RP      23%    55%    22%       Mark Wohlers     Bobby Castillo          Ben Hayes
Vance Worley      SP      36%    55%     9%       John Thomson         Brad Penny         Ben Sheets
Jose Contreras    RP      28%    42%    30%       Doug Brocail          Jose Mesa  Roberto Hernandez
Phillippe Aumont  RP      23%    46%    31%       Eric Cammack        Saul Rivera       Brian Bruney
Michael Stutes    RP       7%    42%    51%       Billy Sadler     Justin Hedrick         Jack Meyer
David Herndon     RP       6%    36%    57%         Trey Witte     Jerry Spradlin          Dean Crow
Kyle Kendrick     SP      18%    43%    39%      Dennis Ribant     Rollie Sheldon        Tony Arnold
Joe Savery        RP      13%    33%    55%       Dana Allison    Brian Henderson          Kevin Ool
Joe Blanton       SP      12%    47%    40%     Brian Tollberg         Donne Wall       Hideki Irabu
Danys Baez        RP      10%    26%    63%     Kirk Bullinger        Ken Sanders        Pete Center
Austin Hyatt      SP       5%    38%    57%         John Adams         Doug Walls     Ryan Vogelsong
Les Walrond       RP       9%    25%    66%   Marshall Bridges        Mike Mohler    Vic Darensbourg
Michael Cisco     RP       3%    18%    80%        Joe Messman      Antonio Osuna         Chris Lemp
Tim Redding       SP       4%    29%    67%      Brian Moehler       Charles Nagy        Pat Ahearne
Eddie Bonine      SP       4%    18%    77%        Matt Ginter      Sam Arrington        Don Wengert
Scott Mathieson   RP       1%    16%    83%     Chris Schroder        Eric Newman      Chris Clemons
Trevor May        SP       2%    24%    75%        Paul Abbott  Dennis Tankersley      Everett Stull
Juan Perez        RP       3%    22%    74%         Mark Davis      Eddie Oropesa         Tim Byrdak
Chance Chapman    RP       1%    16%    82%        Ryan Basner       John Koronka         Cary Hiles
David Bush        SP       2%    16%    82%        Allen Davis       Shawn Boskie        Jason Roach
Ryan Edell        SP       1%    14%    85%        Scott Downs       Heath Totten    John Rheinecker
Jonathan PettiboneSP       0%    12%    88%       Phil Huffman        Chris Mears       David Pauley
Brian Bass        SP       0%     9%    91%       Mike Bruhert      Scott Randall     Mike Heathcott
Nate Bump         SP       1%    12%    87%         Tim Kester       Charles Nagy      Jason Johnson
J.C. Ramirez      SP       0%     6%    94%         Omar Ortiz        Jim Johnson        Nick Masset
Brody Colvin      SP       0%     4%    96%         Omar Ortiz        Nick Masset         Kevin Hart
Tyson Brummett    SP       0%     1%    99%    Jeff Farnsworth       Nick McCurdy       Brian Stokes
Ryan Feierabend   SP       0%     2%    98%        Mike Ramsey       Evan MacLane         Kerry Knox

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Chase Utley              4%      28%      15%       0%       5%       4%       8%       4%
Shane Victorino          6%       4%      14%       2%      79%       2%       4%      15%
Ryan Howard              1%       4%      34%       1%       4%      70%      10%       0%
Domonic Brown            2%       1%      15%       0%       7%       3%       2%       8%
Hunter Pence             7%       0%      10%       2%       5%       8%       0%       2%
Jimmy Rollins            6%       4%       4%       0%       3%       2%       1%      22%
Carlos Ruiz              4%      23%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Jack Cust                0%      18%       2%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%
Ben Francisco            0%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Raul Ibanez              2%       0%       5%       0%       4%       2%       1%       0%
John Mayberry            0%       0%       6%       0%       0%       2%       0%       2%
Matt Rizzotti            0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
John Bowker              0%       0%       2%       0%       2%       1%       1%       0%
Placido Polanco          6%       1%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Erik Kratz               0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Brandon Moss             0%       0%       1%       0%       1%       1%       0%       0%
Jeff Larish              0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ross Gload               2%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Rich Thompson            1%       0%       0%       0%      19%       0%       0%      35%
Scott Podsednik          2%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       4%
Michael Spidale         10%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       2%
Kevin Frandsen           2%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Tagg Bozied              0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Brent Clevlen            0%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Matt Miller              1%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Freddy Galvis            1%       0%       1%       4%      12%       1%       0%      10%
Harold Garcia            1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Delwyn Young             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Sebastian Valle          0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%
Steve Singleton          0%       0%       0%       2%       4%       0%       0%       0%
Brian Schneider          0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Carlos Rivero            0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%       0%
Wilson Valdez            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Cory Sullivan            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Joe Savery               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Cesar Hernandez          1%       0%       0%       0%       6%       0%       0%      23%
Joel Naughton            0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Pete Orr                 0%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       4%
Terry Evans              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       2%
Michael Martinez         1%       0%       1%       0%       2%       0%       1%       0%
Josh Barfield            0%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Ronnie Belliard          1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Jiwan James              0%       0%       0%       1%      27%       0%       0%      26%
Tuffy Gosewisch          0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ozzie Chavez             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Dane Sardinha            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Cliff Lee                 67%        94%        71%        96%        91%
Roy Halladay              70%        94%        46%        98%        90%
Ryan Madson               59%        93%        88%        23%        88%
Antonio Bastardo          47%        86%        98%         1%        63%
Cole Hamels               32%        89%        66%        41%        57%
Justin De Fratus          22%        70%        73%         1%        78%
Roy Oswalt                12%        72%         4%        27%        77%
Brad Lidge                24%        67%        78%         1%        80%
Michael Schwimer          18%        66%        85%         0%        73%
Vance Worley               8%        64%        18%         2%        75%
Jose Contreras            28%        60%        37%        13%        73%
Phillippe Aumont          17%        54%        82%         0%        74%
Michael Stutes             5%        35%        65%         0%        54%
David Herndon              4%        35%         1%         4%        53%
Kyle Kendrick              5%        33%         1%        20%        45%
Joe Savery                 9%        37%         2%         6%        75%
Joe Blanton                2%        26%        12%        28%        29%
Danys Baez                10%        30%         5%         7%        60%
Austin Hyatt               1%        15%        43%         0%        34%
Les Walrond                5%        26%        31%         0%        68%
Michael Cisco              2%        15%         9%         0%        40%
Tim Redding                1%        11%         1%         7%        53%
Eddie Bonine               3%        18%         1%        32%        58%
Scott Mathieson            1%        13%        41%         0%        35%
Trevor May                 0%         6%        95%         0%        47%
Juan Perez                 3%        19%        74%         0%        50%
Chance Chapman             1%        13%         2%         2%        56%
David Bush                 1%         5%         2%         5%        18%
Ryan Edell                 0%         3%         1%        46%        35%
Jonathan Pettibone         0%         2%         0%         0%        28%
Brian Bass                 0%         6%         3%         1%        64%
Nate Bump                  0%         3%         0%        28%        53%
J.C. Ramirez               0%         1%         0%         0%        40%
Brody Colvin               0%         0%         0%         0%        41%
Tyson Brummett             0%         0%         0%         1%        35%
Ryan Feierabend            0%         0%         0%         3%         9%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 30, 2011 at 06:28 AM | 55 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Walt Davis Posted: October 30, 2011 at 06:52 AM (#3982630)
Joe Savery L P 26 .256 .301 .327 61 156 13 40 6 1 1 13 10 30 0 1 69

So Savery used to be a pitcher and is now a position player; or he was a position player and is now a pitcher; or ZiPS is just trying to embarrass some of the guys at the bottom of the Phils organizational ladder?
   2. user Posted: October 30, 2011 at 12:01 PM (#3982640)
Both apparently.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Savery

During the off-season of 2010 it was announced that Savery would be converted into a hitter, with the hope he can recapture his collegiate success. He participated in the FIL after the season to learn first base which is where he will play in 2011.


He was later promoted to AA Reading and AAA Lehigh Valley where he was once again converted to a pitcher, but this time a relief pitcher.
   3. I Am Not a Number Posted: October 30, 2011 at 12:08 PM (#3982641)
Shane, come back. We need you. In centerfield. But we're not sure how you rate defensively.
   4. Ken015 Posted: October 30, 2011 at 12:35 PM (#3982643)
I didn't see SP Tyler Cloyd in there, what does zips think of him?
   5. shoewizard Posted: October 30, 2011 at 12:39 PM (#3982644)
I know Zips doesn't project playing time but isn't Howard likely to miss half the season or at least a third of it ?

Phils fans, if they don't sign a stopgap who internally is likely to get those PA ?

If they are going to sign someone who are the most likely candidates ?

We can talk about how overrated and overpaid howard is all day long but I think they will be hard pressed to get over 110 OPS+ out of first base next year (in aggregate)
   6. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: October 30, 2011 at 12:46 PM (#3982646)
Boy, I'd love to see the Yankees make a run at Oswalt for a year.
   7. Guapo Posted: October 30, 2011 at 12:49 PM (#3982647)
Who is this Cesar Hernandez fellow whose #1 comp is Roberto Alomar?
   8. Silencio Posted: October 30, 2011 at 01:09 PM (#3982649)
Mayberry at first with Brown in the outfield is a pretty good stopgap until Howard is healthy. Im pretty sure Amaro has said he'd prefer for Brown to stay in the minors this year though which seems nuts.
   9. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: October 30, 2011 at 01:12 PM (#3982651)
Who is this Cesar Hernandez fellow whose #1 comp is Roberto Alomar?
He's the guy who hit .268/.306/.333 last year in High-A at the same age Alomar hit .295/.347/.376 for the Padres. So I'm not really seeing it.
   10. AndrewJ Posted: October 30, 2011 at 02:30 PM (#3982667)
JRoll's the best shortstop in Phils history, but career projections of 253 homers, 506 steals, 1508 runs scored -- does he really have HOF credentials?
   11. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: October 30, 2011 at 02:58 PM (#3982676)
JRoll's the best shortstop in Phils history, but career projections of 253 homers, 506 steals, 1508 runs scored -- does he really have HOF credentials?
For guys who played at least 51% of their games at SS, that would put Rollins fourth in HR, tied for fifth in SB, and fifth in runs. Rollins would be the only guy who meets the 51% requirement who tops 200 HR, 400 SB and 1250 R.

Now that having been said, I really don't think Rollins is a Hall of Famer. He's drawn fewer walks than Spike Owen, Lyn Lary or Chris Speier. He's not Ozzie Smith or anything defensive. But then, do people really talk about him as a HoF candidate?
   12. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 30, 2011 at 03:02 PM (#3982679)
Let me double-check Hernandez - that Alomar comp looks wrong.
   13. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 30, 2011 at 03:08 PM (#3982681)
Yeah, the Alomar comp's wrong. The projection's correct, but ZiPS has Roberto Alomar's name mapped to Manny Lee for Lee's 1986-1988 numbers.
   14. Shazbot Posted: October 30, 2011 at 03:09 PM (#3982682)
Two straight years ZiPS refuses to draw a line between Halladay and Lee.
   15. Travolta19 Posted: October 30, 2011 at 03:18 PM (#3982688)
Wow, I'm really surprised at Pence's projection. .281/.334/.450, 108+. That would basically represent career lows in SLG and OPS, and is worse than last year's 111+ projection. All after merely going .314/.370/.502, 138+ last year, and is 120+ for his career. Dan, does ZiPS just not like Pence?

EDIT: And worse than Domonic Brown, hmmm.
   16. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 30, 2011 at 03:28 PM (#3982693)
As far as I can tell, ZiPS has had Pence age pretty early for awhile and skeptical of him maintaining anything close this his 2011 BABIP.
   17. Travolta19 Posted: October 30, 2011 at 03:33 PM (#3982701)
OK, thanks.
   18. BobbyS Posted: October 30, 2011 at 05:46 PM (#3982787)
Victorino still about Av/~60, or does he get a bump to VG?
   19. steagles Posted: October 30, 2011 at 05:53 PM (#3982790)
Two straight years ZiPS refuses to draw a line between Halladay and Lee.
same IP, same ER, but halladay has 1 fewer start

JRoll's the best shortstop in Phils history, but career projections of 253 homers, 506 steals, 1508 runs scored -- does he really have HOF credentials?

For guys who played at least 51% of their games at SS, that would put Rollins fourth in HR, tied for fifth in SB, and fifth in runs. Rollins would be the only guy who meets the 51% requirement who tops 200 HR, 400 SB and 1250 R.

Now that having been said, I really don't think Rollins is a Hall of Famer. He's drawn fewer walks than Spike Owen, Lyn Lary or Chris Speier. He's not Ozzie Smith or anything defensive. But then, do people really talk about him as a HoF candidate?


i think he's on the outside looking in, but if he keeps producing for another ~5 years, he could be a viable candidate.
   20. Walt Davis Posted: October 30, 2011 at 06:29 PM (#3982810)
ZiPS projects Rollins for about 11,000 total PA, i.e. another 3500 in his career.* That would put him 7th all-time among guys with 50%+ games at SS and one of those is Yount who's pretty much right at that 50% mark. So, yeah, if he does that, he's bound to end up high on career SS lists by counting stats. He's got 3 GG but that hasn't been enough to be considered a defensive whiz at SS. On the other hand, if you ignore walks and some context, he looks a lot like Larkin, including having an MVP (and including his durability the last few years). So if he makes it that far, he's got a real shot.

* I was gonna raise my annual questioning of ZiPS playing time projections for career projections as 3500 more PA seemed on the high side as a mean/median projection -- definitely of reasonable likelihood but too high for a mean. But there are 24 players who, after age 32, had 2500+ PA with 40% of their games at SS and the median of that group is between Jeter and Larkin both around 3440. Vizquel has had nearly 6000 and Smith, Ripken, Concepcion and presumably Jeter are above 3500. So ZiPS wins this round!

On the other hand, 22 players have played 80% of games at SS and had 6500+ PA through age 32 and only 4 (Ripken, Jeter, Maranville, Aparicio) had 3500+ PA afterwards so I can hang my hat on that. Limit it to those with an OPS+ of 90 or greater and it's 3 of 17. Wow, Maranville got away with a 68 OPS+ from 33 onwards (4150 PA).
   21. puck Posted: October 30, 2011 at 07:06 PM (#3982840)
That's awesome to be projected to 200:34 and 186:32 K:BB ratios. Those guys can pitch a little.

As for Oswalt--what sort of contract is he likely to be offered (in general, not just from Philly)?
   22. steagles Posted: October 30, 2011 at 09:14 PM (#3982891)
As for Oswalt--what sort of contract is he likely to be offered (in general, not just from Philly)?
i was thinking a hometown discount for the phillies would put him in the 2/18 range. maybe add a year and a couple mil for the highest bidder, and he'd get to 3/33-40.


i think it's also likely that he's a bit burned out and might be willing to take a one year deal from a contender. maybe st louis, arizona, colorado, milwaukee, detroit, or LAA would get in the bidding if that's the case.
   23. Dan Szymborski Posted: October 30, 2011 at 09:25 PM (#3982894)
AV/46 for Victorino.
   24. theboyqueen Posted: October 30, 2011 at 09:36 PM (#3982900)
Jack Cust - DH. For the Phillies. Nice!
   25. alkeiper Posted: October 30, 2011 at 10:34 PM (#3982920)
Cust spent a week in Lehigh Valley and was released. He looked like a nice option for September but alas, it was not to be.

Could we get a projection on Cody Overbeck? Not much upside but he's a 4C type who is close to the majors.
   26. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 30, 2011 at 11:14 PM (#3982942)
Jack Cust's defensive rating is too high.
   27. AndrewJ Posted: October 31, 2011 at 12:00 AM (#3982955)
So Rollins' HOF viability (such as it is) is contingent on 3500 more PAs. I simply don't see that happening.
   28. Austin Posted: October 31, 2011 at 01:57 AM (#3983024)
Two straight years ZiPS refuses to draw a line between Halladay and Lee.


I was also very surprised to see that ZiPS projected them to the same ERA. I tend to think of Halladay as being hands-down superior to Lee, but I guess I can't defend that as well as I would have thought when I compare their last 3-4 years.
   29. NJ in DC (Now with Wife!) Posted: October 31, 2011 at 02:20 AM (#3983033)
I was also very surprised to see that ZiPS projected them to the same ERA. I tend to think of Halladay as being hands-down superior to Lee, but I guess I can't defend that as well as I would have thought when I compare their last 3-4 years.

Halladay has been hands down superior (IMO), but it's the age difference that seems to be making the projections so close.
   30. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: October 31, 2011 at 01:43 PM (#3983188)
I had no idea where Jack Cust wound up.
   31. AndrewJ Posted: October 31, 2011 at 01:59 PM (#3983202)
Should Rollins decide to stay in Philly, though, he is on track to wind up #1 or #2 all-time on most of the Phillies career counting stats (except homers and RBIs)...
   32. Delicious Cake Posted: October 31, 2011 at 02:19 PM (#3983221)
Honestly, that yearly and career projection for Cole Hamels seems a little bearish.
   33. Domino427 Posted: October 31, 2011 at 02:39 PM (#3983262)
Aumont, Schwimmer and De Fratus all have a better projection than Stutes, yet Stutes performed in the majors almost all year. Interesting...
   34. RJ in TO Posted: October 31, 2011 at 02:55 PM (#3983296)
Honestly, that yearly and career projection for Cole Hamels seems a little bearish.

201 wins, and a career 118 ERA+ is a little bearish? That would be a damn fine career.

Also, I expect we'll see his career projections improve a lot after the next season, since (I think) ZIPS only uses the last three years of data, so it's still seeing his 97 ERA+ 2009 season.
   35. Al Peterson Posted: October 31, 2011 at 03:16 PM (#3983330)
Did John Mayberry kick ZIPS dog? At 28 he should be coming into his prime years yet he's going to be outperformed by Ibanez. That's gotta hurt...
   36. RJ in TO Posted: October 31, 2011 at 03:39 PM (#3983356)
Did John Mayberry kick ZIPS dog? At 28 he should be coming into his prime years yet he's going to be outperformed by Ibanez. That's gotta hurt...

His OPS in the minors for 2009 to 2011 are 0.788, 0.740, and 0.729. For a 1B/corner OF, that's not going to fills ZIPS with pants-tightening offensive joy.
   37. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 31, 2011 at 03:40 PM (#3983357)
Wow, I'm really surprised at Pence's projection. .281/.334/.450, 108+.

Not Dan, but that's where his BA and OBP were in aggregate for 2009-2010. The SLG *looks* a touch low, but like .015 or something. 2011 was all batting average spike.
   38. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 31, 2011 at 05:07 PM (#3983460)

His OPS in the minors for 2009 to 2011 are 0.788, 0.740, and 0.729. For a 1B/corner OF, that's not going to fills ZIPS with pants-tightening offensive joy.


Basically he's got 1500 mle PAs that say he's not a major league hitter, let alone an acceptable 1B/corner OF, and he's 369 pretty good mlb PAs, plus he was a prospect and he has a baseball name...

Gary Matthews Jr put up a 111 in his age 27 season on route to a 92 career...
So sure Mayberry may actually have a good full MLB season in his future (Sarge Jr did), but the smart money says bank 2011 and pass on the second helping
   39. Al Peterson Posted: October 31, 2011 at 06:18 PM (#3983562)
His OPS in the minors for 2009 to 2011 are 0.788, 0.740, and 0.729. For a 1B/corner OF, that's not going to fills ZIPS with pants-tightening offensive joy.


Mayberry will be no star but he'll do OK should the Phils continue to put lineups heavy on the LHB. Other teams should throw their lefty's, he seems like a good platoon match. I was more amused with him being next to Ibanez. If ever someone looked toasty I'd put Raul as Exhibit A.
   40. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 02, 2011 at 04:59 PM (#3985060)
I didn't see SP Tyler Cloyd in there, what does zips think of him?


I am also curious about this.
   41. Travolta19 Posted: November 18, 2011 at 05:20 AM (#3996242)
Dan, I know that this system doesn't care about people who own players in sim leagues, but more about comparisons. But I really have a problem with Pence. He's 120+ for his career. He's coming off a 138+ season. I just can't get using his projection at 108+ (WTF) for my team. Yes, I'm a whiny owner. But, for a certain someone's sake, please explain to me how you wouldn't at least adjust this projection at least somewhat based upon reality. I can't wait until I have to argue for Matt Joyce again...(rightly)
   42. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 18, 2011 at 05:51 AM (#3996270)
He's coming off a BABIP-charged 138 OPS+ season. With his 2008-2010 BABIP, he's coming off a 259/311/443 season. There's little to suggest that he's anywhere near a .361 BABIP guy going forward. You tell me, what's the basis for him being a .330 BABIP guy going forward? He's not super fast or super powerful. He's one of the worst line-drive hitters around (by FanGraphs, second-worst in baseball over the last decade).

Since your projections are based on "reality," then why don't you develop your own projection system that can tap into this 2012 reality that the rest of us do not have access to? The rest of us are stuck in 2011 and can only go where the facts and evidence up to now can point us.
   43. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 18, 2011 at 06:12 AM (#3996277)
You could have just said "Reality is based on BABIP and he will not have such a high BABIP in the future".
   44. Travolta19 Posted: November 18, 2011 at 06:15 AM (#3996279)
Wow, that's pretty harsh...I get it, you can cherry pick some other stats that point to regression. Here are a few comebacks...His career BABIP is .328. It has been shown as often as not (when career marks of nearly 3000 ABs are concerned) that some players sustain a BABIP over .300, and that .300 is only a rough norm among the field, not among individual players. Since I can't see your BABIP, LD, etc., numbers, it makes it hard for me to argue those things, you're the only one privy to them.

If you want to talk about numbers, Pence's career ISOp is .193. Apparently ZiPS thinks it will dip to .169. His career LOW is .179. That shiny .450 SLG you project, even in a low offensive environment is lower than the WORST he ever posted (.463) and considerably lower than last year's (.502 in same environment) and his career's (.485).

My point still stands, your projections are grossly lower than both his career averages, as well as as averages over the last 4 years.

Your Fangraphs still has him at 120 wRC+ for his CAREER. You are projecting a precipitous 10% drop from his career, and a 24.43% drop from 2011.

As far as your remarks about the rest of reality, I've seen you adjust projections (Hawpe?) based on reality in the past. There's not a person here who would think a 108+ is appropo in the case.

As a sim league owner, I am of course being selfish. But it's pretty apparent that this is a decent "job" of a projection by other teams in my league. We're not the pros, and we're obviously not the ones with the final say, or mathematical ability to derive a system. That said, maybe we're better off using a CBS 3 year average, as this is just off. If you can't see that Pence is off, I'm sorry. It doesn't change my high level of respect for you, but it does paint you as being obtuse in the face of fact. Again, I'm sorry, but your system is just WRONG.
   45. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 18, 2011 at 06:30 AM (#3996284)
Wow, that's pretty harsh...I get it, you can cherry pick some other stats that point to regression. Here are a few comebacks...His career BABIP is .328. It has been shown as often as not (when career marks of nearly 3000 ABs are concerned

It's cherrypicking when one points out the very reason for his impressive 2011 statistics?

As far as your remarks about the rest of reality, I've seen you adjust projections (Hawpe?) based on reality in the past.

I've only adjusted based on mistakes - I occasionally have someone the wrong age or park.

You keep using reality. I do not think that word means what you think it means. Or else you have a time machine.

I had this exact same argument about Ben Zobrist's projection going into 2010. And a multitude of other times.

That said, maybe we're better off using a CBS 3 year average.

Is that supposed to be some sort of threat or something? Am I supposed to cry "Sakes alive, I must change these projections that random people feel are wrong" or something? If you prefer your league play in a 2009-2011 season league, you should definitely push your commissioner to go that route.

Obtuse in the face of fact

[...]

Again, I'm sorry, but your system is just WRONG.

The facts of 2012? Where are you getting these? Are you from the future? If you already know what happened, why doesn't your league just use the 2012 season disk you already have?
   46. Zoppity Zoop Posted: November 18, 2011 at 06:41 AM (#3996286)
This dude's sure stepped in it.
   47. Fresh Prince of Belisle Posted: November 18, 2011 at 06:44 AM (#3996287)

This dude's sure stepped in it.


I've seen Szym put up a good fight with a weak, ridiculous argument. With a solid one, the best path to overcoming him isn't to fight him, but to bore him. You can't defeat the dude by setting him up for easy zingers.
   48. Travolta19 Posted: November 18, 2011 at 04:15 PM (#3996441)
Yeah, I'm sorry, I was probably a bit out of line. I completely feel that Pence's projection is low, obviously, but probably didn't do a good job of making my point. My frustration is more based on being stuck with a projection that I don't think is fair/accurate, and not being able to anticipate that projection based on anything Pence has done in his career. I guess if I had all of the numbers behind how it was derived, I'd understand more. It is a self-centered argument certainly, since I'm an owner of the player and using him in a system that depends on the ZiPS. I like Dan, and I like the system as a whole, just differ I guess on Pence.

I guess there's nothing I can do but wipe the egg off my face:)
   49. Guapo Posted: November 18, 2011 at 04:25 PM (#3996452)
I enjoyed your posts, mostly because your screen name compelled me to hear Vinny Barbarino's voice in my head while I was reading them.
   50. Travolta19 Posted: November 18, 2011 at 04:59 PM (#3996495)
I enjoyed your posts, mostly because your screen name compelled me to hear Vinny Barbarino's voice in my head while I was reading them.


That's pretty funny.
   51. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: November 18, 2011 at 05:16 PM (#3996518)
Oh, come on. There is no such thing as a "Tuffy Gosewisch." You just made that up.
   52. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 21, 2011 at 03:39 AM (#3998157)
i'm also curious about cloyd. maybe rosenberg too.
   53. Lassus Posted: November 21, 2011 at 04:35 AM (#3998235)
I've seen Szym put up a good fight with a weak, ridiculous argument. With a solid one, the best path to overcoming him isn't to fight him, but to bore him. You can't defeat the dude by setting him up for easy zingers.

This one deserves some kind of award, and I mean that as a compliment to both Szym and the author.
   54. steagles Posted: December 10, 2011 at 11:20 PM (#4012745)
[url=http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies/Options-dwindling-for-Rollins-Phillies.html]from david murphy at philly.com:
[/url]
To me, an at-market deal for Rollins would be 4 years, $36 million with a club option and reasonable buyout. There were some rumblings that Rollins could get $13 mil a year. To me, that's a huge overpay, just based on the market rate for short stops. Now that there does not appear to be much of a market for Rollins, you would think a four-year, $40 million deal would easily get it done. If Phils really don't want to go beyond three years, I think a 3 year, 30 million deal with a club option that has a big buyout and vests on certain incentives would make sense.




that's just one writer speculating, but i'd be satisfied with that commitment. personally, 3/24 would be my limit, but 3/30 or 4/36 isn't a bad compromise if it means rollins comes in happy and hungry.
   55. Ken015 Posted: December 17, 2011 at 04:15 AM (#4018240)
Cloyd?

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