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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

2012 ZiPS Projections - San Francisco Giants

While the inclusion of Carlos Beltran and to a lesser extent, Cody Ross, makes the offense look better than it is, it’s not really quite as bad as finishing last in the NL would have you

believe.  There’s solid front-line talent, mostly under 30 (practically a toddler by Sabean years) and the biggest problem was getting that talent to stay on the field.  Thanks to injuries

to the team’s two best players, one serious (Posey) and one annoying (Sandoval) and the Ghost of Outfielders Past leaving all sorts of flotsam behind leaving it hard to get Belt in the

lineup when he was healthy, the Giants didn’t got a lot of at-bats from their best hitters.  They also underscored their runs created by about 50 runs and though those missing runs don’t

get the 2011 Giants offense to respectability, it at least sends the SWATless team and their tactical Roflcopter back to their home base.

Nobody can blame the pitching staff for the 2011 troubles - they clearly did their best and too many lousy hitters got playing time, resulting in the waste of the staff’s excellence.  They

should still be very good in 2012, though ZiPS is skeptical of Ryan Vogelsong, for obvious reasons.  The big downside concern is the same as last year’s; the lack of starting pitcher depth

in the upper minors.  That turned out well in 2011 thanks to pulling Vogelsong out of a hat and continued good health from the rotation, but even with Eric Surkamp’s smooth climb in the

minors, things could get very ugly fast if one of the front 3 starters hears a popping sound.

Still, as of right now, I’d put the Giants as my NL West favorites, though they remain a team with issues.

On Deck:  Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Carlos Beltran    B    RF   35   .282 .363 .474 107 397  51 112  26   4  14  52  51  67   7   2  126
Pablo Sandoval    B    3B   25   .299 .347 .497 154 572  79 171  36   4  23  86  44  82   3   4  127
Brandon Belt      L    LF   24   .268 .365 .452 141 485  74 130  28   5  17  67  71 129  12   7  121
Buster Posey      R    C    25   .287 .358 .440 130 484  71 139  25   2  15  70  49  83   4   2  116
Melky Cabrera     B    CF   27   .284 .330 .435 156 566  75 161  36   5  13  63  38  81  15   6  106
Aubrey Huff       L    1B   35   .261 .329 .422 139 498  63 130  28   2  16  70  50  80   4   2  103
Gary Brown        R    CF   23   .275 .335 .398 156 621 114 171  30  11   8  64  38  94  36  18   99
Cody Ross         R    LF   31   .254 .317 .422 137 472  63 120  27   2  16  61  39 106   6   2   99
Nate Schierholtz  L    RF   28   .267 .316 .420 130 333  48  89  21   3   8  37  21  60   6   4   99
Pat Burrell       R    LF   35   .232 .331 .412 106 306  34  71  14   1  13  41  45  91   0   0  101
Andres Torres     B    CF   34   .235 .311 .394 117 383  61  90  24   5   9  34  39 106  16   5   91
Brett Pill        R    1B   27   .267 .298 .412 156 600  78 160  35   2  16  87  25  87   5   4   91
Jeff Keppinger    R    2B   32   .278 .321 .372 120 435  51 121  24   1   5  42  27  29   1   1   88
Freddy Sanchez    R    2B   34   .273 .313 .373  93 370  44 101  20   1   5  35  20  56   2   1   86
Conor Gillaspie   L    3B   24   .261 .324 .376 155 556  69 145  26   7   8  67  52 101   4   6   90
Justin Christian  R    LF   32   .247 .298 .355 121 462  73 114  24   4   6  43  30  68  25   5   77
Francisco Peguero R    RF   24   .274 .295 .375 117 485  59 133  16   9   5  54  13  94  19  10   81
Mike Fontenot     L    SS   32   .245 .308 .367 108 278  30  68  16   3   4  28  25  57   3   2   83
Edgar Gonzalez    R    SS   34   .257 .309 .365 125 405  46 104  18   1   8  44  29  77   5   6   83
Travis Ishikawa   L    1B   28   .234 .306 .368 100 261  33  61  15   1   6  31  25  76   2   2   83
Max Ramirez       R    C    27   .232 .296 .363  90 306  34  71  14   1   8  42  26  89   0   0   79
Charlie Culberson R    2B   23   .246 .283 .365 153 609  80 150  31   4  11  60  25 144  15   7   75
Brad Eldred       R    RF   31   .218 .275 .384 118 417  49  91  22   1  15  48  26 133   6   2   77
Emmanuel Burriss  B    2B   27   .255 .308 .306 103 337  45  86  10   2   1  21  21  44  23   8   68
Hector Sanchez    B    P    22   .246 .288 .365 132 479  46 118  26   2   9  66  28  98   0   3   77
Aaron Rowand      R    CF   34   .237 .287 .365 114 375  44  89  20   2   8  34  17  92   3   3   76
Chris Stewart     R    C    30   .239 .309 .331  93 272  31  65  14   1   3  23  23  40   2   1   75
Tyler Graham      R    CF   28   .246 .293 .308 125 426  71 105  16   2   2  31  22  94  39  12   64
Bill Hall         R    2B   32   .219 .274 .363 110 342  38  75  18   2   9  34  25 114   5   2   72
Wes Hodges        R    1B   27   .241 .275 .357 124 473  47 114  24   2   9  49  22 118   2   2   71
Tommy Joseph      R    C    20   .226 .266 .368 151 598  71 135  30   2  17  79  27 155   1   0   71
Roger Kieschnick  L    RF   25   .226 .269 .367 125 477  63 108  21   5  12  55  27 145   7   5   71
Orlando Cabrera   R    2B   37   .252 .284 .332 116 428  43 108  22   0   4  41  18  50   7   4   67
Ehire Adrianza    B    SS   22   .234 .295 .332 131 509  66 119  28   5   4  42  40 117  15  10   71
Jarrett Parker    L    RF   23   .212 .300 .319 148 589  85 125  24   3  11  56  67 192  16   7   69
Brandon Crawford  L    SS   25   .225 .291 .336 120 432  56  97  19   4   7  40  38 119   6   6   70
Eli Whiteside     R    C    32   .219 .274 .344  72 192  19  42   8   2   4  18  13  54   1   1   67
Darren Ford       R    CF   26   .223 .290 .314 116 417  65  93  13   5   5  30  35 125  29  14   65
Chris Dominguez   R    3B   25   .222 .257 .354 156 630  74 140  30   4  15  77  25 191   8   7   64
Mark DeRosa       R    3B   37   .244 .300 .277  46 119  14  29   4   0   0  12   8  23   1   1   59

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Carlos Beltran                                                        PO/58   AV/47
Pablo Sandoval               AV/106           AV/80
Brandon Belt                 AV/119                          AV/128          AV/112
Buster Posey             VG   AV/90
Melky Cabrera                                                 AV/94   FR/79  AV/111
Aubrey Huff                   AV/73                           FR/85           FR/85
Gary Brown                                                            VG/87
Cody Ross                                                     AV/66   AV/97   AV/74
Nate Schierholtz                                              AV/83           AV/83
Pat Burrell                                                  FR/164
Andres Torres                                                 VG/88   EX/72   VG/88
Brett Pill                    AV/76  PO/106                  FR/117
Jeff Keppinger                        AV/71   FR/98   PO/99
Freddy Sanchez                        AV/66
Conor Gillaspie              AV/104          AV/108          AV/117
Justin Christian                                              VG/62   AV/78   VG/62
Francisco Peguero                                                    VG/143  VG/118
Mike Fontenot                        AV/111   FR/97  FR/101
Edgar Gonzalez               AV/117  FR/122  FR/111   FR/98  AV/121          FR/121
Travis Ishikawa               VG/62                          AV/127          AV/127
Max Ramirez              FR  FR/118
Charlie Culberson                    AV/119  VG/160
Brad Eldred                  FR/130          PO/106          PO/166          PO/166
Emmanuel Burriss                     VG/156          FR/108  AV/109  AV/128  AV/109
Hector Sanchez           AV
Aaron Rowand                                                 VG/109   AV/56  VG/117
Chris Stewart            VG  AV/129
Tyler Graham                                                  VG/96   AV/95   VG/91
Bill Hall                            PO/130   VG/95           AV/96  FR/116  FR/115
Wes Hodges                   AV/173          PO/138
Tommy Joseph             AV  AV/114
Roger Kieschnick                                              AV/82           AV/70
Orlando Cabrera                       FR/95  FR/114   FR/95
Ehire Adrianza                                       VG/120
Jarrett Parker                                               AV/115  FR/115  AV/150
Brandon Crawford                              AV/87   AV/87
Eli Whiteside            AV
Darren Ford                                                          VG/118
Chris Dominguez                              FR/124
Mark DeRosa                  FR/115  FR/113   FR/78           AV/85          AV/102

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Tim Lincecum      R      28     2.92    16    9   32   32   212.7  177   69   15   75  225   133
Matt Cain         R      27     3.04    14    8   32   32   213.0  183   72   16   62  171   128
Madison Bumgarner L      22     3.45    13   10   32   32   198.3  197   76   15   48  164   113
Eric Surkamp      L      24     3.85     7    7   26   25   142.7  137   61   11   59  116   101
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Ryan Vogelsong    R      34     4.18     8   10   26   25   153.0  156   71   17   60  119    93
Barry Zito        L      34     4.28     7    8   23   21   124.0  118   59   15   52   92    91
Matt Yourkin      L      30     4.94     5    8   32   19   120.3  137   66   14   44   85    79
Andrew Kown       R      29     5.02     6   10   28   20   118.3  135   66   15   42   66    78
Shane Loux        R      32     5.12     5    9   23   19   117.7  145   67   12   30   49    76
Josh Banks        R      29     5.51     5   10   23   18   112.7  139   69   15   32   52    71
Chuck Lofgren     L      26     5.73     4    8   26   18    97.3  106   62   15   61   58    68

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Sergio Romo       R      29     2.20     4    1   62    0    49.0   36   12    4   11   62   177
Brian Wilson      R      30     3.02     5    3   61    0    62.7   52   21    4   28   69   129
Ramon Ramirez     R      30     3.32     4    3   65    0    65.0   56   24    5   27   58   117
Santiago Casilla  R      32     3.40     3    2   51    1    53.0   45   20    4   26   48   115
Jeremy Affeldt    L      33     3.52     3    2   60    0    53.7   48   21    5   23   47   111
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Heath Hembree     R      23     3.63     1    1   57    0    52.0   43   21    4   32   58   107
Javier Lopez      L      34     3.70     3    3   62    0    48.7   46   20    3   22   33   105
Dan Runzler       L      27     3.80     3    3   50    6    64.0   56   27    4   38   63   103
Dan Otero         R      27     3.86     3    3   41    0    49.0   50   21    4   12   36   101
Guillermo Mota    R      38     4.05     2    2   47    0    60.0   56   27    7   24   51    96
Marc Kroon        R      39     4.22     3    3   43    0    42.7   39   20    5   24   44    92
Hector Correa     R      24     4.45     4    5   40    0    62.7   61   31    8   29   47    88
Waldis Joaquin    R      25     4.50     3    3   42    2    58.0   59   29    5   32   38    87
Scott Munter      R      32     4.60     3    4   45    1    58.7   60   30    5   35   44    85
Jean Machi        R      30     4.64     3    4   50    0    52.3   54   27    5   26   36    84
Casey Daigle      R      31     4.82     2    3   42    0    46.7   52   25    5   19   33    81
Steve Edlefsen    R      27     4.90     3    5   50    0    60.7   63   33    6   38   41    80
Alex Hinshaw      L      29     4.99     1    2   49    0    48.7   46   27    4   41   47    78
Geno Espineli     L      29     5.01     3    5   42    2    55.7   66   31    5   21   26    78

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Carlos Beltran       .280  .355  .482  2317  8851  1415  2474   516    93   362  1389  1037  1519   321   118
Pablo Sandoval       .289  .337  .475  2274  8430  1086  2433   496    62   317  1188   649  1118    47   118
Melky Cabrera        .274  .323  .406  2295  8220  1045  2254   472    57   167   904   581  1057   173    95
Orlando Cabrera      .271  .315  .387  2101  7990  1028  2163   481    32   127   895   532   795   223    83
Aubrey Huff          .274  .336  .453  2089  7699   993  2111   448    31   288  1115   697  1140    48   109
Buster Posey         .275  .346  .416  1766  6552   889  1804   316    29   182   884   647  1020    62   107
Aaron Rowand         .267  .323  .423  1602  5177   705  1382   308    21   153   607   295  1098    73    95
Freddy Sanchez       .290  .328  .401  1182  4510   559  1308   271    21    62   471   235   573    18    94
Cody Ross            .256  .317  .432  1301  4319   562  1105   257    17   156   597   341   953    47    99
Jeff Keppinger       .276  .322  .376  1046  3750   425  1036   195    13    51   370   250   240    16    88

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Tim Lincecum          220  132    0    3.12  466  464     3053 2596 1057  230 1136 3244    127
Matt Cain             207  160    0    3.32  526  524     3427 2963 1264  288 1118 2783    121
Madison Bumgarner     191  134    0    3.35  446  443     2749 2667 1024  229  665 2377    116
Barry Zito            179  166    0    4.05  480  465     2852 2602 1284  318 1199 2118    105

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Carlos Beltran    RF     43%  37%  14%   6%   1%       Larry Walker      Bobby Bonilla           Al Smith
Pablo Sandoval    3B     50%  37%   9%   4%   1%      Adrian Beltre     Ryan Zimmerman       Jim Lefebvre
Brandon Belt      LF     23%  39%  23%  12%   4%           Mel Hall    Johnny Callison      Johnny Briggs
Buster Posey      C      63%  29%   8%   1%   0%       Bill Freehan      Bruce Edwards       Geovany Soto
Melky Cabrera     CF     24%  32%  31%  12%   2%          Ken Berry       Jim Piersall    Garret Anderson
Aubrey Huff       1B      3%  12%  16%  44%  26%      Tino Martinez    Chris Chambliss         Walt Moryn
Gary Brown        CF      8%  16%  39%  27%  12%    Marquis Grissom     Rocco Baldelli      Rondell White
Cody Ross         LF      1%  12%  14%  34%  40%        Casey Blake       Brian Lesher       Jermaine Dye
Nate Schierholtz  RF      1%   5%  14%  30%  51%        Greg Briley      Dave Martinez     Daryl Sconiers
Pat Burrell       LF      6%   8%  17%  29%  41%         Jeff Manto         Jay Buhner      Cecil Fielder
Andres Torres     CF      5%  10%  38%  33%  15%      Mitch Webster     Michael Tucker        Devon White
Brett Pill        1B      0%   0%   3%  22%  75%         John Mabry      Dan Rohrmeier         Jack Upton
Jeff Keppinger    2B      3%   5%  15%  36%  42%     Mark Christman       Cookie Rojas        Tommy Helms
Freddy Sanchez    2B      2%   5%  14%  35%  46%       Manny Trillo  Mark Grudzielanek       Cookie Rojas
Conor Gillaspie   3B      2%   3%   8%  28%  60%       Ernest Riles     Peter Ciofrone         Russ Adams
Justin Christian  LF      0%   4%   4%  13%  80%          Jim Busby    John Massarelli           Eric Fox
Francisco Peguero RF      0%   2%   2%   7%  90%       Willie McGee        Alexis Rios    Marquis Grissom
Mike Fontenot     SS      4%   6%  23%  48%  20%      Mike Moriarty         Ron Warner    Chris Clapinski
Edgar Gonzalez    SS      1%   4%  11%  43%  42%         Greg Gagne        Dickie Thon      Charlie Hayes
Travis Ishikawa   1B      0%   0%   1%   7%  92%         Doug Deeds      Howard Prager        Orsino Hill
Max Ramirez       C       1%   6%   9%  48%  37%     Gilberto Reyes       Alvin Colina        Dusty Brown
Charlie Culberson 2B      2%   1%   4%  13%  81%          Bill Hall      Josh Barfield      Daniel Mayora
Brad Eldred       RF      0%   0%   2%   2%  96%        John Cotton         Tom Nevers       Chris Norton
Emmanuel Burriss  2B      1%   1%   4%  10%  85%      Edgar Caceres     Corey Wimberly       Mike Woodard
Hector Sanchez    P       0%   0%   0%   0% 100%        Billy Owens         Jim Fasano      Eddie Pearson
Aaron Rowand      CF      0%   0%   3%  19%  79%   Darrell Whitmore       Chad Mottola         Emil Brown
Chris Stewart     C       1%   5%  10%  35%  50%          Dave Toth       Chris Tremie       Chad Moeller
Tyler Graham      CF      0%   0%   4%  17%  80%      Willy Taveras    Jacob Brumfield         Tim Raines
Bill Hall         2B      1%   0%   3%   8%  89%     Steve Scarsone  Trace Coquillette      Pete Mackanin
Wes Hodges        1B      0%   0%   0%   0% 100%     Danny Matienzo    Glenn Carpenter     Nilson Robledo
Tommy Joseph      C       1%   4%  10%  19%  67%          Rob Bowen  Michael McCormick    Jeff Winchester
Roger Kieschnick  RF      0%   1%   1%   1%  99%        Sean Barker        Ron Lockett     Richie Robnett
Orlando Cabrera   2B      0%   1%   2%   5%  94%         Bob Lillis         Pete Suder       Roy McMillan
Ehire Adrianza    SS      0%   1%   4%  19%  78%       Dionys Cesar        Ian Desmond      Pedro Sanchez
Jarrett Parker    RF      0%   1%   0%   3%  96%     Kinnis Pledger        Jessie Reid     Chito Martinez
Brandon Crawford  SS      2%   2%   2%  14%  81%  Demetrish JenkinsFrancisco Plasencia        John Nelson
Eli Whiteside     C       0%   3%   4%  12%  81%       Chad Moeller     Luis Rodriguez        Paul Hoover
Darren Ford       CF      1%   0%   2%   3%  95%      Kimera Bartee       Tony Russell      Andres Torres
Chris Dominguez   3B      0%   0%   1%   1%  98%        Tim Holland    Carlos Casimiro       Brian Barden
Mark DeRosa       3B      0%   0%   0%   1%  99%      Jim Davenport       Billy Jurges      Charlie Hayes

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Sergio Romo       RP      90%     5%     5% Justin Duchscherer      Ugueth Urbina     John Wetteland
Tim Lincecum      SP      87%     8%     5%       Kevin Appier      Bartolo Colon          Bob Welch
Brian Wilson      RP      58%    37%     6%           Jim Kern         Mark Clear Heathcliff Slocumb
Matt Cain         SP      79%    16%     5%      Joey Hamilton      Freddy Garcia   Dustin Hermanson
Ramon Ramirez     RP      42%    47%    11%        Cory Bailey      Ryan Dempster      Bobby Thigpen
Santiago Casilla  RP      39%    46%    15%        Cory Bailey        Gregg Olson       Rich DeLucia
Madison Bumgarner SP      59%    36%     5%        Mark Mulder    Donovan Osborne          Zach Duke
Jeremy Affeldt    RP      30%    48%    22%        Kevin Tolar   Marshall Bridges       Will Brunson
Heath Hembree     RP      30%    41%    29%       Eric Cammack       Brian Bruney       Ryan Bukvich
Javier Lopez      RP      25%    46%    29%  Scott Schoeneweis   Marshall Bridges        Luis Arroyo
Dan Runzler       RP      21%    50%    28%    Armando Almanza      Ricky Pickett    Kevin Lovingier
Eric Surkamp      SP      32%    56%    12%         Ed Yarnall      Bill Scherrer        Kevin Brown
Dan Otero         RP      18%    49%    32%      Rusty Meacham         Heath Bost         John Kelly
Guillermo Mota    RP      13%    45%    42%          Doug Bair    Hector Carrasco          Jose Mesa
Ryan Vogelsong    SP      13%    56%    31%         Bobby Witt        Kevin Gross          Tim Leary
Marc Kroon        RP      10%    33%    57%        Greg Harris        Rudy Seanez          Doug Bair
Barry Zito        SP      12%    52%    36%      Brian Bohanon       Jim Deshaies      Darren Oliver
Hector Correa     RP       4%    33%    63%         Chris Lemp       Ryan Seifert     Tony Dougherty
Waldis Joaquin    RP       6%    29%    65%      Joe Davenport     Marc Pisciotta         Joel Moore
Scott Munter      RP       4%    23%    73%          David Lee      Jerry Johnson       Marc Wilkins
Jean Machi        RP       5%    23%    72%   Jarod Juelsgaard       Jake Robbins      Jason Bullard
Casey Daigle      RP       4%    21%    75%      Todd Williams     Jason Childers         Mark Small
Steve Edlefsen    RP       2%    14%    84%         Ryan Baker       Mike Schultz     Mike Zimmerman
Matt Yourkin      SP       2%    23%    75%      Brian Abraham       Scott Aldred       Casey Fossum
Alex Hinshaw      RP       2%    20%    79%         Bill White        Kevin Tolar       Tim Fortugno
Geno Espineli     RP       1%    16%    83%        Jon Switzer          Chris Key        Mark Watson
Andrew Kown       SP       1%    19%    80%        Felipe Lira    Vicente Bonilla  Ricardo Rodriguez
Shane Loux        SP       3%    19%    78%        Pat Ahearne      James Baldwin      Tim McClaskey
Josh Banks        SP       1%     8%    91%      Geoff Grenert          Jose Lima       Clay Condrey
Chuck Lofgren     SP       0%     4%    96%          Corey Lee        Steve Smyth         Matt White

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Carlos Beltran          15%      26%      22%       0%       2%       1%      19%       1%
Pablo Sandoval          48%       5%      50%       9%       5%      16%      17%       0%
Brandon Belt             4%      26%      12%       0%       7%       3%      11%       2%
Buster Posey            16%      17%       5%       0%       1%       0%       5%       0%
Melky Cabrera           17%       1%       3%       6%       7%       0%       0%       5%
Aubrey Huff              2%       1%       4%       0%       2%       2%       2%       0%
Gary Brown               7%       2%       1%       1%      64%       0%       1%      78%
Cody Ross                1%       0%       4%       0%       0%       1%       0%       1%
Nate Schierholtz         1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Pat Burrell              0%       2%       5%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%
Andres Torres            1%       1%       2%       0%       3%       1%       2%       1%
Brett Pill               0%       0%       1%       5%       2%       1%       0%       1%
Jeff Keppinger           5%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Freddy Sanchez           3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Conor Gillaspie          3%       1%       2%       0%      18%       1%       2%       0%
Justin Christian         1%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%      20%
Francisco Peguero        4%       0%       0%       0%      47%       0%       0%       5%
Mike Fontenot            1%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Edgar Gonzalez           1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Travis Ishikawa          0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Max Ramirez              0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Charlie Culberson        0%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       5%
Brad Eldred              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Emmanuel Burriss         0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%      16%
Hector Sanchez           0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Aaron Rowand             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Stewart            0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Tyler Graham             0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%      93%
Bill Hall                0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Wes Hodges               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Tommy Joseph             0%       0%       1%       2%       0%       5%       0%       0%
Roger Kieschnick         0%       0%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%       0%
Orlando Cabrera          1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Ehire Adrianza           0%       0%       0%       1%       6%       0%       0%       3%
Jarrett Parker           0%       0%       1%       1%       1%       2%       0%       6%
Brandon Crawford         0%       0%       1%       0%       3%       0%       1%       0%
Eli Whiteside            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Darren Ford              0%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%      44%
Chris Dominguez          0%       0%       0%       1%       2%       2%       0%       1%
Mark DeRosa              1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Sergio Romo               91%        95%        99%        58%        84%
Tim Lincecum              61%        93%        91%         2%        96%
Brian Wilson              49%        92%        93%         0%        96%
Matt Cain                 48%        91%        18%         8%        95%
Ramon Ramirez             33%        84%        47%         1%        83%
Santiago Casilla          31%        80%        54%         0%        90%
Madison Bumgarner         20%        82%        21%        35%        95%
Jeremy Affeldt            23%        71%        41%         1%        81%
Heath Hembree             23%        63%        93%         0%        85%
Javier Lopez              25%        64%         6%         2%        92%
Dan Runzler               16%        58%        75%         0%        93%
Eric Surkamp               5%        60%        17%         0%        94%
Dan Otero                 18%        60%         8%        52%        71%
Guillermo Mota            13%        50%        37%         2%        63%
Ryan Vogelsong             2%        32%        10%         0%        60%
Marc Kroon                10%        35%        80%         0%        57%
Barry Zito                 2%        32%         7%         0%        50%
Hector Correa              3%        30%         8%         0%        52%
Waldis Joaquin             4%        28%         3%         0%        80%
Scott Munter               3%        21%        11%         0%        85%
Jean Machi                 3%        21%         4%         0%        72%
Casey Daigle               2%        19%         7%         2%        66%
Steve Edlefsen             1%        12%         2%         0%        79%
Matt Yourkin               0%         6%         2%         1%        44%
Alex Hinshaw               2%        16%        69%         0%        77%
Geno Espineli              1%        13%         0%         3%        74%
Andrew Kown                0%         4%         0%         3%        41%
Shane Loux                 1%         7%         0%        30%        64%
Josh Banks                 0%         2%         0%        18%        36%
Chuck Lofgren              0%         0%         0%         0%        22%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 30, 2011 at 09:17 PM | 34 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Bobby A Posted: November 30, 2011 at 09:59 PM (#4003955)
Let the Gary Brown Mania begin!
   2. Home Run Teal & Black Black Black Gone! Posted: November 30, 2011 at 10:10 PM (#4003964)
Can we get one for Barry Bonds?
   3. Nasty Nate Posted: November 30, 2011 at 10:13 PM (#4003970)
I wonder if Romo has the lowest ZIPS ERA projection of anybody in baseball.

Is there a reason why he is used for so few batters per appearance? Are the Giants missing out on a Jonny Venters-esque 85 inning awesome reliever or would his health and/or effectivess plummet if used for even just an inning per appearance?
   4. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 30, 2011 at 10:25 PM (#4003977)
That's a very nice projection for Gary Brown.

If you don't mind, Dan, could you run a projection for Johnny Monell?
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 30, 2011 at 10:25 PM (#4003978)
I wonder if Romo has the lowest ZIPS ERA projection of anybody in baseball.


1/3 of the way through, the top 5 (starters and relievers) are:

Romo - 177
Papelbon - 152
Marshall - 149
Robertson - 146
Bard - 145

Verlander - 144
Lee - 140
Halladay - 140
Linceum - 133
Felix - 131
   6. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: November 30, 2011 at 10:30 PM (#4003984)
Would this be a dumb spot to request a projection for John Jaso?
   7. Yonder Alonso in misguided trousers (cardinal) Posted: November 30, 2011 at 10:55 PM (#4004005)
Tim Lincecum's top comp is Kevin Appier? That seems weird but I'd forgotten that he had some pretty good-to-great years in the first half of his career with KC.
   8. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 30, 2011 at 11:18 PM (#4004022)
Tim Lincecum's top comp is Kevin Appier? That seems weird but I'd forgotten that he had some pretty good-to-great years in the first half of his career with KC.

I think you're underselling Appier. He was fantastic in his 20's. Career 137 ERA+ in 1665.1 IP through age 29.

And then he hit the wall. Injury I suppose.
   9. Nasty Nate Posted: November 30, 2011 at 11:27 PM (#4004032)
1/3 of the way through, the top 5 (starters and relievers) are:

Romo - 177
Papelbon - 152
Marshall - 149
Robertson - 146
Bard - 145


Wow. I wonder if any of the teams in need of a closer have called the Giants about Romo.
   10. Greg K Posted: November 30, 2011 at 11:33 PM (#4004038)
Appier actually is getting a few marginal votes in the HoPGTaG*.

(Hall of Players Greg Thinks are Great - for those who think they're better informed than the many tireless researchers over at the Hall of Merit.)
   11. Austin Posted: November 30, 2011 at 11:50 PM (#4004050)
These projections look surprisingly rosy overall, especially for the offense (as well as Zito).

Dan, did something go wrong with the DeRosa projection? Or are crippling injuries and age sufficient to project him for an .033 ISO? I'm also still a little skeptical of the Gary Brown projection, but I guess I see how last season's numbers translate to something that looks more than passable at the major-league level.
   12. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 30, 2011 at 11:53 PM (#4004052)
Give Appier 6 full seasons of a 6.23 ERA and his IP and ERA+ match Jack Morris.
   13. Baldrick Posted: November 30, 2011 at 11:57 PM (#4004057)
I was a bit perplexed at Cain projecting to be basically as good as Lincecum, but then I went back and actually checked their records. Timmy has been less good than I expected the past two years, while Cain has been even better.

They're basically the same age, and while Lincecum has definitely been better over their careers, the gap is a lot smaller than I expected. Cain also has an extra 300 IP because he came up much earlier. But Lincecum has two Cy Young awards and Cain has a career winning percentage under .500.
   14. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: November 30, 2011 at 11:57 PM (#4004059)
Tim Lincecum's top comp is Kevin Appier? That seems weird but I'd forgotten that he had some pretty good-to-great years in the first half of his career with KC.

Over the years, Appier has become crossed in my mind with Kevin Tapani. Similar name, generally AL pitchers, same rough time frame. Tapani had a nice career but wasn't quite to Appier's level. Although winning 19 games for the Cubs with a 90 ERA+ was a neat trick.
   15. Baldrick Posted: December 01, 2011 at 12:00 AM (#4004062)
Give Appier 6 full seasons of a 6.23 ERA and his IP and ERA+ match Jack Morris.

Well, minus the mustache.
   16. obsessivegiantscompulsive Posted: December 01, 2011 at 12:50 AM (#4004087)
Romo had arm problems at the end of the season. It seems clear to me that he was having some arm issues so Bochy didn't use him as much as people would have liked during the season, but by doing that, it allowed Bochy to use Romo nearly to the end of the season before his arm problems necessitated rest. He relies on the slider a lot, so that could be it.

I don't see why Zito's projection would seem all that rosy, that's roughly what he did in 2009-2010. Just because his performance will never come close to matching his salary or contract does not mean that he's not a serviceable starter, particularly as the 5th guy in the rotation.

I don't see why DeRosa's projection is so shocking. He did not hit for much power while with the Giants because of his wrist problems and the projections not only take the two years into consideration, but also that he'll be 37 next season as well, which would also push ISO down more.

About projections of minor league players, what is taken into account by the methodology? Obviously MLE. Does the age of the player relative to the league also come into the calculus?

Are we really still using winning percentage to compare pitchers? Shouldn't the software here cause comments like that to burst into flames?
   17. Nivra Posted: December 01, 2011 at 01:44 AM (#4004128)
Could you do a projection for Blanco and also Duvall? And umm, why is Hector Sanchez a P?
   18. BobbyS Posted: December 01, 2011 at 01:55 AM (#4004135)
1/3 of the way through, the top 5 (starters and relievers) are:

Romo - 177
Papelbon - 152
Marshall - 149
Robertson - 146
Bard - 145

Verlander - 144
Lee - 140
Halladay - 140
Linceum - 133
Felix - 131


And... I'm still taking Mariano over the field to prove ZiPs wrong... again. Even if he is something like 71 years old! :)
   19. Something Other Posted: December 01, 2011 at 02:33 AM (#4004158)
I'm hoping for a couple more elite seasons from Beltran so that projection is disappointing. I suppose w the Giants offense around him his runs and RBIs are going to take a hit.

The games played/at bats are a little too Marcel-ish for my tastes, and not sufficiently reflective of what looks to be a very successful surgery before the 2011 season. Beltran does need a manager who will sit him the feck down once a week. Paced, he's enough of a hitter to stick around into his late 30s even when he can't run any more. The Mets playing him 80 of 81 games was an inexcusable attempt to build his value. Guy loves to play though.

Those SB numbers are unlikely. A manager who lets Beltran steal at a rate almost triple last season deserves a low shot.
   20. BobbyS Posted: December 01, 2011 at 03:43 AM (#4004201)
I wonder if Romo has the lowest ZIPS ERA projection of anybody in baseball.


And wait til we see Kimbrel and Venters.
   21. Tuque Posted: December 01, 2011 at 06:12 AM (#4004263)
That's a startlingly good projection for Belt. Isn't it? Am I the only one who thinks that's surprisingly optimistic for ZiPS?
   22. MM1f Posted: December 01, 2011 at 06:52 AM (#4004267)
I was a bit perplexed at Cain projecting to be basically as good as Lincecum, but then I went back and actually checked their records. Timmy has been less good than I expected the past two years, while Cain has been even better.


I am 10,000% percent convinced that Cain is the most underrated pitcher in baseball.

That's a startlingly good projection for Belt. Isn't it? Am I the only one who thinks that's surprisingly optimistic for ZiPS?


Belt has raked at every stop in the minors. Now, he isn't as good as his minor league slash rates would have you believe but it isn't a surprise Zips would like him. He can hit.
   23. zenbitz Posted: December 01, 2011 at 07:11 AM (#4004272)
I am thinking the Giants need a shortstop. Zips seems to think Brandon Crawford is not the answer.

Whoa, I just realized Adrianza is projected to be be a better fielder AND hitter than Crawford.
   24. Walt Davis Posted: December 01, 2011 at 08:25 AM (#4004287)
Give Appier 6 full seasons of a 6.23 ERA and his IP and ERA+ match Jack Morris.

See, that was the beauty of Morris and why he deserves to go into the HoF. When he needed to, Morris pitched like Appier; when he knew he could get away with it, he pitched like bad Jose Lima. That's why he won over 400 games. Appier tried to pitch like Appier all the time which is just a silly approach.

If they had let Morris bat, his slash line would have been 100/100/400 with 150 walk-off HR plus that memorable drive off Smoltz in Game 7.
   25. Walt Davis Posted: December 01, 2011 at 08:45 AM (#4004290)
So ...

1. Matt Cain is a stud
2. Matt Cain is projected to pitch another 2100 innings with almost no fall-off (relative to career-to-date)
3. Matt Cain has a horrible set of comps :-)
   26. BourbonSamurai Is a Lazy Nogoodnik Posted: December 01, 2011 at 06:39 PM (#4004465)
If they had let Morris bat, his slash line would have been 100/100/400 with 150 walk-off HR plus that memorable drive off Smoltz in Game 7.


And all his outs would have been productive outs!
   27. Nasty Nate Posted: December 01, 2011 at 06:54 PM (#4004476)
Romo had arm problems at the end of the season. It seems clear to me that he was having some arm issues so Bochy didn't use him as much as people would have liked during the season, but by doing that, it allowed Bochy to use Romo nearly to the end of the season before his arm problems necessitated rest. He relies on the slider a lot, so that could be it.


Thanks. I never got to see him pitch, but his stats really stick out (70 K's versus 5 BB's and zero HBPs etc).
   28. Joe OBrien Posted: December 01, 2011 at 07:38 PM (#4004512)
Romo was also used somewhat as a ROOGY. It's understandable, given his heavy reliance on a slider, and he was much more effective vs RHB. But his OPS split was .402 against righties and .599 against lefties. That's good against everybody.
   29. Travolta19 Posted: December 02, 2011 at 02:39 AM (#4004833)
I'm hoping for a couple more elite seasons from Beltran so that projection is disappointing. I suppose w the Giants offense around him his runs and RBIs are going to take a hit.


Outside of playing time, I thought it was a pretty nice projection, given that he'll be 35. I'm not sure if you play fantasy or sim, but if it's sim, the ratios matter more than R/RBIs. Also, consider that he's only getting 2/3 of a season, so both of those numbers would be 78 over 162, nothing special, but maybe not as bad as it looks if you're looking at counting stats.
   30. Runscreated Posted: December 02, 2011 at 05:08 AM (#4004907)
I read that the Giants are looking at signing 34 year old SS Alex Gonzalez. With his age (34), walk rate (about 1 in 20 ABs) , moving to a pitchers park-I do not see the upside of this beyond having to play Brandon Crawford there. Is there any other shortstops available. This parade of over-priced, aging SS's is beyond old. Sabean will do what he does worst though.
   31. Something Other Posted: December 03, 2011 at 11:43 PM (#4006008)
Outside of playing time, I thought it was a pretty nice projection, given that he'll be 35. I'm not sure if you play fantasy or sim, but if it's sim, the ratios matter more than R/RBIs. Also, consider that he's only getting 2/3 of a season, so both of those numbers would be 78 over 162, nothing special, but maybe not as bad as it looks if you're looking at counting stats.
I don't play either (not that there's anything wrong with them), just rooting for Beltran to stay on the HOF path. Yeah--it's not bad at all for a 35 year old with his injury history. Not offense to Dan, but my intuition is that Zips is a little too Marcel-ish at times, as I said. I don't get the feeling that it distinguishes adequately between the following career paths, say,

Year OPS+
2009 140
2010 120
2011 100

and

Year OPS+
2009 100
2010 110
2011 120

Of course, I could be way off, but not having access to Dan's black box, I have to go with my intuition in this regard. A Marcels oriented projection projects both players to put up a 113 OPS+ in 2012, and that doesn't make good sense to me.

Neither of the above paths are Beltran's, but his offseason surgery was evidently very, very successful. It's my understanding Dan doesn't go back and tinker with his projections because of things like that, and if my understanding is correct then ZIPS will often miss on players like Beltran. But, again, I could be way off on this.
   32. A triple short of the cycle Posted: December 15, 2011 at 06:16 PM (#4017072)
In related news, Angel Villalona is apparently out from under the murder charge. Giants put him on the 40-man roster this season.
   33. andrewberg Posted: December 15, 2011 at 06:35 PM (#4017093)
Yes, but if Appier wasnt trying to pitch like Appier, who would Morris have been trying to pitch like when he turned it on?
   34. Nasty Nate Posted: December 22, 2011 at 09:14 PM (#4022108)
I wonder if Romo has the lowest ZIPS ERA projection of anybody in baseball.



And wait til we see Kimbrel and Venters.


Kimbrel's ZIPS is now out, and about the same ERA/ERA+ as Romo...

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