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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, November 27, 2011

2012 ZiPS Projections - Seattle Mariners

The 2011 season for the Mariners was less disappointing than 2010, though mostly because the expectations were significantly lower going into this year.  The Mariners didn’t have a whole

lot in the way of pleasant surprises as none of the possible bouncebacks really bounced back and most of the legacy prospects (the older prospects that have been hanging onto the second

tier on the prospect lists for a few years) didn’t take any steps forward.  That Vincent Catricala, who’s not really a third baseman, appears so high on the list is a reflection, along with

the relatively high ranking of the long-departed Bradley, on just how few real impact hitters are in the organization.  More specifically, zero - Ackley’s a very good hitter for a second

baseman, but he’s not of the level that you build the middle of a competitive batting order around him.

At least one pitcher and probably more will exceed their projections and establish a new level, though with pitching prospects as usual, it’s a bit unclear who will take that step forward. 

My personal vote is Charlie Furbush - I think his fastball has some upside and he certainly looks like a guy who should be able to eke out a few more MPH and his changeup will be a pretty

good weapon if he does that.  I know some like Blake Beavan, but he’s just been so damn hittable at AAA so far.

ZiPS is kind of disappointed in Justin Smoak.  He’s not a god of either defense or walks, so he’s simply not a real 1B at the major league level with a low batting average and unimpressive

(for a 1B) power.

While there are 3 years left in Felix Hernandez’s extension in Seattle, the team’s drawing pretty close to the Rubicon and will need to decide at some point in the not-too-distant future

whether to make Felix Hernandez the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history or to trade the team’s best (by far) player for a package.  The Mariners can make as much noise as they want

about bringing in Prince Fielder, but the team’s just not likely to be competitive in 2012.

Next Up: San Francisco Giants

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Dustin Ackley     L    2B   24   .261 .348 .410 156 610 101 159  31   9  14  58  81 113  11   3  111
Vincent Catricala R    3B   23   .259 .321 .401 156 611  97 158  36   3  15  73  46 137  11   3  100
Mike Carp         L    LF   26   .252 .317 .414 151 563  78 142  26   1  21  75  49 141   3   3  102
Ichiro Suzuki     L    RF   38   .278 .317 .354 148 625  81 174  23   3   6  43  36  69  35   8   87
Kyle Seager       L    2B   24   .267 .323 .372 141 572  84 153  32   2   8  61  44 100  11   8   93
Justin Smoak      B    1B   25   .231 .326 .376 124 441  49 102  22   0  14  49  61 117   0   0   95
Milton Bradley    B    LF   34   .217 .322 .359  60 198  28  43   8   1   6  23  27  60   4   1   90
Franklin GutierrezR    CF   29   .248 .299 .358 132 475  61 118  21   2   9  47  34  99  15   3   82
Mike Wilson       R    RF   29   .227 .301 .370 103 384  60  87  17   1  12  42  36 120   6   2   86
Alex Liddi        R    3B   23   .228 .292 .387 156 600 110 137  30   4  19  84  50 194   6   3   87
Casper Wells      R    RF   27   .219 .293 .403 117 370  44  81  17   3  15  34  31 130   7   6   91
Chih-Hsien Chiang L    RF   24   .239 .287 .382 134 502  55 120  32   2  12  49  28 112   5   3   85
Adam Kennedy      L    2B   36   .249 .302 .344 119 390  44  97  20   1   5  36  28  63  11   3   80
Luis Rodriguez    B    SS   32   .252 .319 .360  78 242  26  61  12   1   4  25  24  30   2   4   89
Matt Mangini      L    1B   26   .247 .293 .350 114 429  53 106  16   2   8  54  26 115   4   1   79
Wily Mo Pena      R    LF   30   .224 .281 .380  74 263  29  59   9   1  10  30  17  80   1   1   82
Brendan Ryan      R    SS   30   .245 .303 .322 130 425  55 104  18   3   3  33  30  75  12   4   75
Michael Saunders  L    CF   25   .220 .298 .339 131 436  68  96  16   3  10  41  47 136  12   5   77
Nick Franklin     B    SS   21   .230 .284 .344 133 544  87 125  16   5  12  37  39 161  18   7   74
Chone Figgins     B    3B   34   .242 .323 .305 115 433  55 105  17   2   2  26  52  80  23  12   77
Adam Moore        R    C    28   .242 .286 .345  68 252  26  61  11   0   5  13  13  59   1   1   75
Miguel Olivo      R    C    33   .225 .263 .376 113 404  49  91  15   2  14  49  20 127   6   4   76
Trayvon Robinson  B    LF   24   .214 .294 .342 152 565  77 121  20   5  14  52  61 226  22  13   77
Nate Tenbrink     L    3B   25   .212 .288 .319 106 386  53  82  13   5   6  34  36 121  13   4   69
Chris Gimenez     R    C    29   .217 .300 .325  68 212  27  46   8   0   5  19  25  61   1   2   75
Matt Tuiasosopo   R    1B   26   .199 .291 .322 111 413  64  82  17   2  10  46  51 146   5   2   71
Carlos Peguero    L    LF   25   .211 .265 .360 127 492  67 104  18   5  15  58  31 208   6   5   72
Josh Bard         B    C    34   .228 .277 .327  80 272  24  62  15   0   4  31  19  60   0   0   68
Francisco MartinezR    3B   21   .238 .274 .333 138 534  70 127  19   4   8  43  27 147  10  10   69
Carlos Triunfel   R    SS   22   .245 .279 .323 156 595  64 146  22   3   6  43  19 104   5   8   67
Sean Kazmar       R    SS   27   .230 .279 .307 140 508  58 117  23   2   4  43  32  94   7   4   63
Johermyn Chavez   R    RF   23   .217 .284 .332 154 585  69 127  20   4  13  56  43 179   6  11   71

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Dustin Ackley                        AV/126
Vincent Catricala            AV/104          PO/113          FR/112
Mike Carp                    AV/121                          FR/143
Ichiro Suzuki                                                                 VG/80
Kyle Seager                          AV/130   AV/93  FR/111
Justin Smoak                 AV/110
Milton Bradley                                               PO/104          PO/104
Franklin Gutierrez                                                    EX/64
Mike Wilson                                                  AV/163   PO/93   AV/63
Alex Liddi                   AV/124          FR/116  PO/108
Casper Wells                                                 AV/100  AV/110  AV/119
Chih-Hsien Chiang                                            VG/162          AV/115
Adam Kennedy                 AV/105  AV/106  AV/104
Luis Rodriguez                       FR/104  FR/102  PO/102
Matt Mangini                 AV/150          AV/129
Wily Mo Pena                 PO/126                          PO/116          PO/103
Brendan Ryan                         VG/103           EX/79
Michael Saunders                                             VG/108   AV/70  VG/113
Nick Franklin                        AV/113          FR/159
Chone Figgins                        FR/130   VG/83
Adam Moore               FR
Miguel Olivo             AV
Trayvon Robinson                                             VG/100  AV/145
Nate Tenbrink                AV/131          AV/157  PO/118  FR/138          FR/105
Chris Gimenez                FR/105
Matt Tuiasosopo          AV
Carlos Peguero                                               AV/163  FR/163  AV/163
Josh Bard                AV
Francisco Martinez                           AV/133
Carlos Triunfel                      AV/134          AV/148
Sean Kazmar                          AV/105          FR/116          AV/118
Johermyn Chavez                                              AV/104   FR/95  AV/141

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Felix Hernandez   R      26     3.00    16   10   33   33   237.3  206   79   18   67  226   131
Michael Pineda    R      23     3.52    10    9   28   28   161.0  142   63   15   53  152   112
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Jason Vargas      L      29     4.31     9   11   31   28   175.3  181   84   19   52  110    91
Blake Beavan      R      23     4.79     8   13   29   29   176.7  210   94   20   33   82    82
Jarrett Grube     R      30     5.11     4    7   22   14    93.3  107   53   12   34   55    77
Andrew Carraway   R      25     5.15     5    9   25   20   117.0  137   67   16   32   65    76
Fabio Castro      L      27     5.16     4    8   26   16    96.0  107   55   10   52   61    76
Tom Wilhelmsen    R      28     5.30     3    6   24   11    69.7   79   41    8   35   41    74
Erasmo Ramirez    R      22     5.32     5   11   25   24   140.3  172   83   19   33   75    74
Chaz Roe          R      25     5.37     4    8   27   17   115.7  139   69   14   46   67    73
Anthony Vasquez   L      25     5.37     6   13   24   23   134.0  167   80   17   37   61    73
Charlie Furbush   L      26     5.39     6   12   30   22   123.7  136   74   21   48   91    73
Luke French       L      26     5.58     6   13   26   24   143.7  174   89   21   54   70    71
Chris Seddon      L      28     5.80     4   11   26   20   121.0  146   78   16   57   67    68
Nate Robertson    L      34     5.86     3    8   22   16    86.0  109   56   11   35   44    67
Yoervis Medina    R      23     6.22     4   10   21   20   105.7  131   73   17   52   58    63
Mauricio Robles   L      23     6.35     3    8   18   18    73.7   78   52   12   65   57    62

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Brandon League    R      29     3.61     5    4   65    0    67.3   63   27    6   18   55   109
David Aardsma     R      30     3.66     2    2   34    0    32.0   26   13    3   16   35   108
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Josh Lueke        R      27     3.81     3    3   43    0    54.3   52   23    4   20   45   103
Shawn Kelley      R      28     4.01     2    2   30    0    33.7   32   15    4   12   31    98
Chance Ruffin     R      23     4.20     3    4   61    0    64.3   59   30    7   38   64    94
Cesar Jimenez     L      27     4.35     2    3   29    0    41.3   42   20    4   21   33    90
Chris Ray         R      30     4.40     2    3   46    0    45.0   45   22    4   21   34    89
Jamey Wright      R      37     4.43     2    3   51    0    61.0   61   30    6   30   42    89
Denny Bautista    R      29     4.47     2    3   38    0    46.3   42   23    4   32   48    88
Chris Smith       R      31     4.81     1    2   35    0    43.0   46   23    6   18   35    82
Stephen Pryor     R      22     4.88     2    3   41    0    48.0   44   26    4   40   44    81
Steve Delabar     R      28     5.28     3    7   46    0    58.0   58   34    6   50   49    75
Dan Cortes        R      25     5.34     2    4   54    0    55.7   57   33    5   43   43    74
Edward Paredes    L      25     5.88     2    6   45    1    59.7   70   39    7   39   37    67
Bobby LaFromboise L      26     5.94     3    8   40    8    86.3  107   57   13   39   48    66

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Ichiro Suzuki        .319  .362  .412  2006  8543  1263  2726   319    79   105   679   554   868   479   111
Adam Kennedy         .269  .322  .378  1858  6139   750  1649   321    43    88   630   431   932   199    86
Chone Figgins        .275  .348  .359  1370  5199   772  1431   208    60    35   434   590   898   369    91
Miguel Olivo         .237  .272  .406  1409  4839   572  1146   214    32   180   627   210  1370    73    80
Franklin Gutierrez   .251  .301  .367  1302  4504   567  1130   208    16    95   456   312   924   127    83
Josh Bard            .248  .311  .372   729  2264   205   562   136     3    46   274   208   402     1    85
Wily Mo Pena         .244  .298  .429   724  2151   259   525    85     6   100   289   138   689    13    90

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Felix Hernandez       258  171    0    3.20  561  559     3908 3514 1389  325 1150 3654    126
Jason Vargas           86  110    0    4.52  314  282     1744 1812  875  213  554 1099     88

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Dustin Ackley     2B     51%  24%  14%   9%   3%     Dick McAuliffe       Rickie Weeks      Ryne Sandberg
Vincent Catricala 3B      7%  19%  30%  31%  15%     Fernando Tatis    Carney Lansford      Josh Barfield
Mike Carp         LF      1%  12%  18%  37%  34%        Daryle Ward         Dave Clark       Larry Sheets
Ichiro Suzuki     RF      3%   7%  11%  25%  55%         Doc Cramer           Sam Rice          Al Bumbry
Kyle Seager       2B      9%  11%  16%  34%  31%        Brent Gates         Aaron Hill         Tony Kubek
Justin Smoak      1B      1%   3%   9%  43%  46%       Jose Birriel          Mike Carp       Brandon Sing
Milton Bradley    LF      1%   4%   4%  17%  75%       Reed Secrist      Junior Spivey         Mike Hegan
Franklin GutierrezCF      1%   6%  15%  52%  27%   Darnell McDonald       Lynn Garrett         Doug Clark
Mike Wilson       RF      0%   1%   6%  10%  84%     Keith Williams         Jack Voigt        Tony Barron
Alex Liddi        3B      2%   5%  10%  29%  55%        Joel Guzman           Ron Gant        Josh Fields
Casper Wells      RF      0%   2%   7%  14%  78%         Ray Sadler     Scott Hairston          Todd Dunn
Chih-Hsien Chiang RF      0%   2%   4%  11%  85%          Mark Ryal        Jim Bennett    Magglio Ordonez
Adam Kennedy      2B      4%   5%   9%  27%  57%        Jim Gantner         Eddie Mayo     Scott Fletcher
Luis Rodriguez    SS      3%   7%  18%  42%  32%         Bucky Dent         Geoff Blum   Chico Carrasquel
Matt Mangini      1B      0%   1%   2%   3%  96%          Rich Lane      Lonnie Maclin     Mike Maksudian
Wily Mo Pena      LF      0%   1%   4%   3%  93%        Jim Gantner         Eddie Mayo     Scott Fletcher
Brendan Ryan      SS      1%   2%  14%  42%  42%   Andy Stankiewicz          Eddie Pye     Chris Barnwell
Michael Saunders  CF      1%   3%  10%  19%  68%       Dan Ortmeier       Randy Salava     Mark Budzinski
Nick Franklin     SS      7%   7%  10%  25%  53%     Elliot Johnson   Buddy Biancalana      Royce Clayton
Chone Figgins     3B      0%   2%   7%  11%  81%      Mark McLemore      Jamey Carroll     Craig Counsell
Adam Moore        C       1%   4%  10%  32%  55%        Omir Santos      Mike DiFelice       Geronimo Gil
Miguel Olivo      C       1%   5%  10%  31%  55%          Jim Hegan         Mike Heath         Don Zimmer
Trayvon Robinson  LF      0%   1%   2%   4%  94%        Devon White     Chin-Feng Chen    Larry Whisenton
Nate Tenbrink     3B      1%   1%   3%   6%  91%       Joe Redfield         Eric Riggs    Cornelio Garcia
Chris Gimenez     C       2%   4%   5%  22%  69%       Danny Ardoin       B.J. Waszgis       Ray Stephens
Matt Tuiasosopo   1B      0%   0%   0%   0% 100%        Gus Kennedy        Daryl Clark       Willie Tatum
Carlos Peguero    LF      0%   0%   2%   3%  96%       Ralph Bryant        Brad Snyder        Jalal Leach
Josh Bard         C       0%   1%   4%  16%  80%     Keith McDonald       Shawn Wooten         Joe Oliver
Francisco Martinez3B      1%   2%   1%   3%  95%     George Hinshaw    Mike Sharperson      Ryne Sandberg
Carlos Triunfel   SS      0%   2%   3%   9%  87%      Fred Manrique       Edwin Aponte    Alvaro Espinoza
Sean Kazmar       SS      0%   1%   3%   9%  88%      Zach Borowiak         Nick Ortiz    Milko Jaramillo
Johermyn Chavez   RF      1%   0%   0%   0% 100%    Victor Ferrante      Zoilo Sanchez      Cory Aldridge

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Felix Hernandez   SP      85%    10%     5%        Greg Maddux          Mike Witt         Roy Oswalt
Michael Pineda    SP      56%    39%     5%        Adam Miller          Bob Welch         David Nied
Brandon League    RP      30%    55%    15%       Donnie Moore           Rod Beck         Steve Reed
David Aardsma     RP      40%    33%    27%        Greg Harris      Russ Springer      Troy Percival
Josh Lueke        RP      24%    48%    28%      Mark Huismann      Derek Wallace   Randy St. Claire
Shawn Kelley      RP      19%    40%    41%      Sergio Valdez         Dave Tobik       Paul Mancuso
Chance Ruffin     RP       9%    40%    50%         Jeff Zaske         Jeff Innis         P.J. Bevis
Jason Vargas      SP      11%    52%    37%        Kirk Rueter       Carlos Perez        Neal Heaton
Cesar Jimenez     RP       9%    37%    54%        Dan Ricabal        Thomas Hart        Dave Rucker
Chris Ray         RP       8%    33%    59%     Jason Childers        Gregg Olson      Ernie Camacho
Jamey Wright      RP      11%    35%    54%          Ray Moore      Moe Drabowsky          Turk Lown
Denny Bautista    RP       9%    33%    59%       Bart Miadich       Calvin Jones         Mark Clear
Blake Beavan      SP       2%    30%    68%       Carlos Silva        Josh Towers     Andrew Baldwin
Chris Smith       RP       5%    18%    77%         Nate Field         Doug Henry        Manny Aybar
Stephen Pryor     RP       3%    26%    71%        Brad Voyles         Josh Banks    Rafael Pimentel
Jarrett Grube     SP       3%    19%    79%       Frank Campos        Steve Comer           Joe Mays
Andrew Carraway   SP       1%    18%    81%      Nicholas Ungs        Geoff Geary       Heath Totten
Fabio Castro      SP       1%    16%    83%          Sean Henn        Ken Spratke      Scott Forster
Steve Delabar     RP       1%     9%    90%     Mike MacDougal         John Davis        Marcus Gwyn
Tom Wilhelmsen    SP       0%     8%    92%     David Martinez       Mark Calvert      Timothy Smith
Erasmo Ramirez    SP       0%    11%    89%     Andrew Baldwin       Heath Totten        Josh Towers
Dan Cortes        RP       1%    10%    89%     Marc Pisciotta         Jeff Smith Heathcliff Slocumb
Chaz Roe          SP       0%     9%    91%      Brandon Leese       Tony Peguero          Bill King
Anthony Vasquez   SP       0%     8%    92%   Bobby Livingston     Heath Phillips         Randy Leek
Charlie Furbush   SP       0%    10%    90%         Bryan Ward        Buddy Groom       Mike Linskey
Luke French       SP       0%     3%    97%     Heath Phillips       Mike Linskey       Jason Cromer
Chris Seddon      SP       0%     2%    98%     Mike Prochaska          Nate Teut          Tim McCoy
Nate Robertson    SP       1%     6%    93%         Robert Lee       Ken Holtzman     Chris Michalak
Edward Paredes    RP       0%     2%    98%        Erick Burke         Jason Hill        Bryan Malko
Bobby LaFromboise RP       0%     1%    99%        Steve Kline   Jason Mackintosh         Kevin King
Yoervis Medina    SP       0%     1%    99%       Jared Jensen     Patrick Coogan       Jim Blueberg
Mauricio Robles   SP       0%     2%    98%       Scott MacRae      Mike Gonzalez       Mike Spiegel

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Dustin Ackley            2%       9%       4%       4%      59%       2%       3%       3%
Vincent Catricala        1%       1%       3%       5%       1%       4%       1%       2%
Mike Carp                0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       3%       1%       0%
Ichiro Suzuki            9%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%       1%      66%
Kyle Seager              4%       2%       1%       2%       0%       1%       1%       3%
Justin Smoak             0%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Milton Bradley           0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Franklin Gutierrez       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Mike Wilson              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Alex Liddi               0%       0%       1%       1%       3%       5%       1%       0%
Casper Wells             0%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Chih-Hsien Chiang        0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Adam Kennedy             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       3%
Luis Rodriguez           1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Matt Mangini             0%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Wily Mo Pena             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brendan Ryan             0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       2%
Michael Saunders         0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Nick Franklin            1%       1%       3%       0%       6%       4%       2%       6%
Chone Figgins            0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%      16%
Adam Moore               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Miguel Olivo             0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Trayvon Robinson         0%       0%       0%       0%       4%       1%       0%       7%
Nate Tenbrink            0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       3%
Chris Gimenez            0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Matt Tuiasosopo          0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Carlos Peguero           0%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Bard                0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Francisco Martinez       0%       0%       2%       0%       4%       2%       0%       1%
Carlos Triunfel          0%       0%       0%       1%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Sean Kazmar              0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Johermyn Chavez          0%       0%       1%       0%       4%       1%       1%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Felix Hernandez           56%        93%        69%        11%        95%
Michael Pineda            21%        78%        66%         2%        76%
Brandon League            23%        74%        21%        28%        76%
David Aardsma             29%        73%        89%         1%        80%
Josh Lueke                17%        57%        29%         3%        87%
Shawn Kelley              19%        48%        50%        15%        57%
Chance Ruffin              7%        43%        79%         0%        62%
Jason Vargas               2%        30%         0%        10%        52%
Cesar Jimenez              9%        37%        20%         0%        85%
Chris Ray                  8%        33%        11%         1%        74%
Jamey Wright               8%        34%         7%         1%        74%
Denny Bautista             5%        33%        83%         0%        71%
Blake Beavan               0%         7%         0%        84%        56%
Chris Smith                3%        16%        24%         2%        45%
Stephen Pryor              3%        22%        50%         0%        73%
Jarrett Grube              1%         7%         1%         4%        39%
Andrew Carraway            0%         4%         0%        20%        29%
Fabio Castro               0%         5%         0%         0%        74%
Steve Delabar              0%         7%        31%         0%        66%
Tom Wilhelmsen             0%         4%         0%         0%        61%
Erasmo Ramirez             0%         1%         0%        43%        30%
Dan Cortes                 1%         8%        13%         0%        73%
Chaz Roe                   0%         2%         0%         0%        46%
Anthony Vasquez            0%         1%         0%        17%        40%
Charlie Furbush            0%         2%         3%         0%        10%
Luke French                0%         0%         0%         0%        20%
Chris Seddon               0%         0%         0%         0%        29%
Nate Robertson             0%         2%         1%         1%        50%
Edward Paredes             0%         2%         1%         0%        54%
Bobby LaFromboise          0%         1%         0%         0%        30%
Yoervis Medina             0%         0%         0%         0%        16%
Mauricio Robles            0%         0%        11%         0%        18%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 27, 2011 at 08:23 PM | 42 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Xander Posted: November 27, 2011 at 08:41 PM (#4001691)
Wow, that's an ugly offense with 2 starters who project to be above-average hitters. Ben Broussard's would listen if you called.
   2. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 27, 2011 at 08:48 PM (#4001699)
Wow, that's an ugly offense with 2 starters who project to be above-average hitters. Ben Broussard's would listen if you called.

With that offense, Eddie Bressoud would listen if they called.
   3. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 27, 2011 at 09:04 PM (#4001704)
2 above average position players, 2 above average SP, and 2 above average RP. That's a recipe for yet another ~65-win season.

How much longer do they give Zduriencik? I think he's a pretty bright guy, but it's 3 years already, and he hasn't really added much talent.

I'm guessing he's ruing picking Smoak over Montero, big time. So far, Montero has accumulated more Rbat in 69 PA than Smoak has in 886.
   4. Austin Posted: November 27, 2011 at 09:16 PM (#4001707)
Oh, my god. That's just horrifying. Not even the pitching looks like much of a strength.
   5. Danny Posted: November 27, 2011 at 09:39 PM (#4001717)
2 above average position players

Ackley and...?
   6. bookbook Posted: November 27, 2011 at 09:45 PM (#4001721)
Teach Smoak not to try and play through thumb injuries and it would look a bit better, but yeah, that doesn't look encouraging.
   7. catomi01 Posted: November 27, 2011 at 09:49 PM (#4001723)
montero could still be had...but i think the yankees would want hernandez and pineda if they see the same projections and see how desperate the Mariners will be for runs.
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 27, 2011 at 09:53 PM (#4001725)
Obviously, Matt Tuiasosopo isn't a catcher - that was Chris Gimenez's rating put on the wrong line (with nothing given for Tuia).

The correct ratings for Tuiasosopo are AV/117 at 1B, FR/107 at 2B, FR/105 at 3B, PO/113 at SS, AV/104 at LF and RF.
   9. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 27, 2011 at 09:56 PM (#4001730)

Ackley and...?


I'm figuring Ichiro has at least a dead cat bounce in him, but he could be toast.
   10. steagles Posted: November 27, 2011 at 09:58 PM (#4001732)
How much longer do they give Zduriencik? I think he's a pretty bright guy, but it's 3 years already, and he hasn't really added much talent.
in fairness, he locked up hernandez, developed pineida, and has stockpiled hultzen, paxton, and walker in the minors.

that's a lot of TOR potential.
   11. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 27, 2011 at 10:10 PM (#4001737)
in fairness, he locked up hernandez, developed pineida, and has stockpiled hultzen, paxton, and walker in the minors.

that's a lot of TOR potential.


And nobody who can hit a lick.
   12. guyute Posted: November 27, 2011 at 10:27 PM (#4001741)
Thanks for the projections Dan. No ZIPs for Hultzen or Paxton? Is it because they just got drafted and there is not much to base a projection off of? Seems likely that they will at least see the majors in 2012.
   13. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 28, 2011 at 01:12 AM (#4001799)
I'm holding off on Hultzen and Paxton until the spring. Paxton has a short professional resume and Hultzen none, so I'm hoping to have a better idea of who I *need* to project for 2012 in the spring.
   14. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 28, 2011 at 01:20 AM (#4001803)
in fairness, he locked up hernandez, developed pineida, and has stockpiled hultzen, paxton, and walker in the minors.

that's a lot of TOR potential.


I'm assuming you mean all these players are going to be traded to Toronto for three .230-hitting centerfielders and three platoon first basemen.
   15. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: November 28, 2011 at 01:35 AM (#4001809)
Hunch: Justin Smoak will turn out to be worth a damn in 2012. Not necessarily an All-Star, but a serviceable starter at the major league level.

Hunch: Dustin Ackley is going to be a star in the Jeter/Pedroia mold.

Hunch: Ichiro! is not done yet, and will bang out a 300 average and 200 hits.

Hunch: this time next year, the Felix Hernandez derby is in full swing after another disappointing Mariners season.
   16. The Ghost's Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane Season Posted: November 28, 2011 at 04:13 AM (#4001883)
I am not a close follower of the Mariners minor leaguers, but I thought I could recognize the names of the top 15 or 20. I haven't even HEARD of Vincent Catricala, and he sounds like he is no third baseman.

Seattle is doing one thing right this winter - they aren't loking to make a big splash in free agancy. Fielder and Pujols together wouldn't put this team in the playoffs next year. Better to take a longer term approach, though Felix's clock is indeed ticking.
   17. Xander Posted: November 28, 2011 at 04:25 AM (#4001893)
Is his clock really ticking? There are middle-schoolers right now who will contribute to the Mariners when Felix is still a great pitcher.
   18. Yonder Alonso in misguided trousers (cardinal) Posted: November 28, 2011 at 04:43 AM (#4001923)
From MLBTradeRumors just now:

The Mariners have acquired catcher John Jaso from the Rays in exchange for right-handed pitcher Josh Lueke and a player to be named later or cash considerations, according to a team press release.

“[Jaso] gives us a left-handed hitting catcher with some big league time who is still young,” Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik said in the release. “His left-handed bat will be a nice compliment to our right-handed hitting group. He’s a tough kid with postseason experience and should be a nice fit with us.”


Not sure how his postseason experience will help the M's, but looking at the projections for catchers above, there's a decent chance Jaso's better than all of them (despite his bad year this year), or least not worse.
   19. Xander Posted: November 28, 2011 at 05:00 AM (#4001939)
Consensual rape is the new market inefficiency.
   20. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: November 28, 2011 at 05:42 AM (#4001971)
Well, I just told my 12 year old that he might be playing behind King Felix one day and he said "Aw, crap, dad. Not the Mariners."
   21. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: November 28, 2011 at 05:58 AM (#4001980)
Is his clock really ticking?


HIs free agency clock is ticking. If the M's don't show any indicator that they're going to compete ever, the only way they can keep Felix is to blow him away with money . . . which might prevent them from ever competing.
   22. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili(Teddy F. Ballgame) Posted: November 28, 2011 at 06:04 AM (#4001983)
I notice that the career extrapolations have Ichiro losing fifty or so hits and a point of OPS+ each year for the past few.
   23. PreservedFish Posted: November 28, 2011 at 06:39 AM (#4001997)
2,726 hits. I wonder what the realistic threshold is for "don't retire until 3,000."
   24. Dr. Vaux Posted: November 28, 2011 at 06:46 AM (#4002001)
The Mariners have plenty of money and seem quite marketing conscious. I think they'll do everything in their power to keep Felix Hernandez. And if they do trade him, I think they'll make it a point to not trade him to either the Yankees or Red Sox, again for marketing reasons.
   25. CraigK Posted: November 28, 2011 at 09:05 AM (#4002027)
How far in advance do you run these, Dan?

Wondering specifically for the Mariners' case in particular.
   26. Rants Mulliniks Posted: November 28, 2011 at 01:56 PM (#4002054)
2,726 hits


...yet only 1263 runs. Only slow-asses Al Oliver and and Brooks Robinson have fewer runs with that many or more hits.
   27. zachtoma Posted: November 28, 2011 at 02:58 PM (#4002070)
Who the hell is Vincent Catricala? Is he really the second-best hitter the Mariners have?

On the other hand, apparently the Ackley move to second took about as well as could be hoped. They might end up looking pretty smart for that.
   28. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: November 28, 2011 at 03:03 PM (#4002074)
...yet only 1263 runs. Only slow-asses Al Oliver and and Brooks Robinson have fewer runs with that many or more hits.

He has been the lead off man for some terrible, terrible offenses. He really should have decided to hit more HR's.
   29. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: November 28, 2011 at 03:08 PM (#4002077)
HIs free agency clock is ticking. If the M's don't show any indicator that they're going to compete ever, the only way they can keep Felix is to blow him away with money . . . which might prevent them from ever competing.

He's signed through 2014, and is close to market price. They've go 2 years to figure it out.
   30. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: November 28, 2011 at 03:17 PM (#4002080)
They'll be a lot better once they trade for Joey Votto, right?
   31. Domino427 Posted: November 28, 2011 at 03:41 PM (#4002095)
Any chance on a Rich Poythress projection?
   32. John DiFool2 Posted: November 28, 2011 at 04:05 PM (#4002110)
I'll just note that Dan has been predicting an Ichiro collapse for years, and only last season did he get one.
   33. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 28, 2011 at 04:39 PM (#4002137)
I know why he's not on there, but would you mind running one for Greg Halman? I know it's kind of ghoulish, but I can't help wondering...
   34. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: November 28, 2011 at 04:40 PM (#4002138)
I'll just note that Dan has been predicting an Ichiro collapse for years, and only last season did he get one.


So not only is he prescient, he's also ahead of the pack!
   35. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: November 28, 2011 at 08:04 PM (#4002382)
Ichiro has to bounce back some-that projection looks awful low considering his track record. He still has his speed, right? The M's badly need a guy with some pop, even someone like Jack Cust would look good in this lineup.
   36. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: November 28, 2011 at 08:40 PM (#4002424)
Brandon League's top 2 comps are ghoulish too
   37. Travolta19 Posted: November 30, 2011 at 12:43 AM (#4003220)
Dan, can we get a Scott Patterson projection? He got one last year, and was once again very solid in the minors, despite being an old man. Thanks.
   38. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: November 30, 2011 at 01:22 AM (#4003236)
Smoak: 231/.326/.376, 95 OPS+, Age 25
Montero: .271 .333 .486, 112 OPS+, Age 22

If those numbers stay that way--and Montero sticks at catcher--that's a terrible mark on Zduriencik's resume.
   39. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: November 30, 2011 at 02:08 AM (#4003264)
Trayvon Robinson LF 0% 1% 2% 4% 94% Devon White Chin-Feng Chen Larry Whisenton


I admit I only read these for the comps as I have no idea who most of these players are. This one is my favorite. So, it's somewhere in the 'gold glove, championship level centerfielder' to 'barely got a cup of coffee in the majors' range. Since it's the Mariners, I'm going to lean towards Whisenton side of things.

Not taking a shot at Dan or anything, it just fun to see what the computer spits out when it has little to go on.
   40. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 30, 2011 at 02:18 AM (#4003271)
If those numbers stay that way--and Montero gains 100 lbs, refuses to play the field and does nothing but DH and PH for the rest of his career, a la Le Grand Orange --that's a terrible mark on Zduriencik's resume.


FTFY.
   41. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 30, 2011 at 02:33 AM (#4003284)
I haven't even HEARD of Vincent Catricala, and he sounds like he is no third baseman.


Catricala's bat is real. He didn't look too awful at third when I saw the Generals late in the season, but his error to DP ratio there in the minors, coupled with everything I've read, suggests that he probably is pretty bad. But I think he'll hit with enough power to carry a corner, although I'd really like to see what he can do in a less friendly environment for hitters.

Nick Franklin is going to be very good in a couple of years, too, ZiPS comps notwithstanding.

-- MWE
   42. Travolta19 Posted: November 30, 2011 at 05:50 AM (#4003382)
Nick Franklin is going to be very good in a couple of years, too, ZiPS comps notwithstanding.


What, no love for Biancalana? He posted a 476 OPS+ rookie year:)

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