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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, December 17, 2011

2012 ZiPS Projections - St. Louis Cardinals

As I generally mention when a good, not great team wins the World Series, the most dangerous trap that team can fall into is the tendency to “bring back the band” and try to keep the roster pretty much the way it was during their championship season.  A great team has a little more room to rest on their laurels, a very good team doesn’t.  The San Franciso Giants were the most recent team to fall into the trap and when an offense that had a lot go right to just finish 9th in scoring in 2010 had less go right, their quest to defend was over before the month of September.

It’s doubly dangerous and difficult for the Cardinals because with Pujols gone, they can’t even simply be satisfied to reassemble the 2011 squad.  Having Adam Wainwright back is huge, however, and though the Cardinals have had some luck in that the Brewers are losing Fielder, misidentified what needed to be replaced in the infield (a better shortstop than Seabass and Green at 3rd would have been a significantly better alternative), and probably lose Braun for 50 games, they still need to fix up some things.  They’re near the point at which they have to throw in the towel on Westbrook, past the point at which they have to throw in the towel on Westbrook, and can’t delude themselves into thinking that there’s no room to bring in Carlos Beltran with Allen Craig on the roster (plenty of at-bats for everyone - neither them nor Berkman and Holliday are Ripkens).

Still, the Cardinals are clearly in contention in 2012, but they could be a little better.  Long-term, the Cubs are likely to eventually become relevant and the Reds do have enough talent to make some noise if Walt Jocketty moves beyond his apparent winter meeting plan of waiting for someone to just give him their #2 starter.

Next Up: Houston Astros

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Matt Holliday     R    LF   32   .288 .371 .484 139 517  84 149  36   1  21  85  62  96   9   4  132
Lance Berkman     B    RF   36   .269 .381 .471 125 427  68 115  22   2  20  77  77  90   5   5  132
Allen Craig       R    LF   27   .276 .329 .454 123 416  58 115  24   1  16  68  31  87   4   0  112
Yadier Molina     R    C    29   .284 .340 .397 139 479  44 136  25   1   9  63  39  43   6   4  101
Jon Jay           L    CF   27   .282 .335 .402 156 500  65 141  27   3   9  49  34  81  12   7  101
David Freese      R    3B   29   .269 .323 .406  98 335  39  90  17   1   9  51  25  78   1   1   98
Matt Adams        L    1B   23   .264 .315 .418 140 572  63 151  25   3  19  82  42 118   0   1   98
Rafael Furcal     B    SS   34   .263 .331 .389  99 388  60 102  19   3   8  37  38  55  11   5   96
Zack Cox          L    3B   23   .278 .327 .377 156 608  66 169  27   0  11  65  39 124   1   3   92
Mark Hamilton     L    1B   27   .249 .329 .380 103 329  42  82  22   0   7  41  37  89   0   0   94
Daniel Descalso   L    3B   25   .263 .328 .378 150 471  64 124  28   4   6  54  42  75   4   3   93
Matt Carpenter    L    3B   26   .248 .342 .366 136 492  55 122  26   4   8  52  66 103   6   3   94
Tyler Greene      R    SS   28   .233 .309 .364 136 450  66 105  20   3  11  42  41 137  22   4   84
Skip Schumaker    L    2B   32   .272 .328 .352 134 452  55 123  22   1   4  41  37  58   3   2   86
Erik Komatsu      L    CF   24   .254 .328 .350 122 460  53 117  23   3   5  42  48  77  18   8   86
Aaron Luna        R    LF   25   .220 .330 .344 105 323  40  71  12   2   8  33  37  92   5   1   85
Bryan Anderson    L    C    25   .246 .308 .358 103 346  34  85  16   1   7  33  28  83   1   0   82
Ryan Theriot      R    SS   32   .269 .324 .332 142 524  62 141  21   3   2  45  40  62  13   9   80
Adron Chambers    L    CF   25   .240 .317 .350 146 471  64 113  16   9   6  41  44 115  16  10   83
Shane Robinson    R    LF   27   .250 .301 .345  83 296  40  74  15   2   3  30  19  36   9   3   76
Steve Hill        R    1B   27   .234 .281 .383  85 337  32  79  15   1  11  41  21  99   1   0   80
Jose Garcia       R    SS   24   .256 .306 .327 142 493  56 126  19   2   4  42  32  96  20  10   74
Donovan Solano    R    2B   24   .249 .287 .333 135 441  47 110  24   2   3  36  22  70   3   0   69
Daryl Jones       L    LF   25   .234 .311 .333 120 402  47  94  15   5   5  37  40 111   8   7   77
Tony Cruz         R    C    25   .237 .287 .352 104 355  34  84  19   2   6  43  25  79   1   2   74
Ryan Jackson      R    SS   24   .242 .297 .322 135 521  45 126  24   3   4  45  41 106   4   4   70
Pete Kozma        R    SS   24   .217 .279 .298 151 543  57 118  23   3   5  58  46 139   6   2   58
Freddie Bynum     L    2B   32   .213 .256 .287  79 254  27  54   9   2   2  18  14  68   5   3   48

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Matt Holliday                                                 AV/84
Lance Berkman                 AV/94                           PO/94          PO/110
Allen Craig                   AV/96          FR/112           FR/61  PO/114   FR/99
Yadier Molina            VG  FR/118
Jon Jay                      AV/118                           VG/78   AV/85   AV/77
David Freese                  AV/98          AV/106
Matt Adams                   FR/102
Rafael Furcal                                        AV/112
Zack Cox                                     AV/135
Mark Hamilton                 FR/82                          FR/112          FR/112
Daniel Descalso              AV/106  AV/120   AV/88  PO/103
Matt Carpenter                                FR/75
Tyler Greene                         AV/104  AV/100  AV/123                  AV/117
Skip Schumaker                       PO/109                  AV/113  FR/113  AV/113
Erik Komatsu                                                  VG/89   FR/75  VG/107
Aaron Luna                           PO/119                  VG/120          AV/136
Bryan Anderson           AV
Ryan Theriot                          AV/79           PO/96
Adron Chambers                                               AV/120  AV/148  AV/104
Shane Robinson                                               VG/106   VG/72  VG/101
Steve Hill               FR   FR/94                          FR/139          PO/163
Jose Garcia                          AV/162  AV/116  AV/184  AV/113  FR/112
Donovan Solano                       VG/110   AV/90  PO/126
Daryl Jones                                                  AV/158  FR/147  AV/117
Tony Cruz                VG
Ryan Jackson                                         AV/112
Pete Kozma                           VG/112  AV/106  VG/130
Freddie Bynum                AV/108  AV/110          AV/128  AV/108

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Adam Wainwright   R      30     3.12    14    8   25   25   173.3  160   60   13   48  155   121
Chris Carpenter   R      37     3.49    12    8   29   29   201.0  194   78   16   49  151   108
Jaime Garcia      L      25     3.58    12    8   31   31   183.7  179   73   14   55  148   105
Edwin Jackson     R      28     3.71    12    9   31   30   198.7  196   82   16   64  152   101
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Shelby Miller     R      21     4.01     9    8   25   25   132.3  123   59   10   68  126    94
Lance Lynn        R      25     4.06     7    7   29   20   126.3  128   57    8   54   93    93
Kyle Lohse        R      33     4.37     7    8   22   21   123.7  130   60   13   36   75    86
Jake Westbrook    R      34     4.52     7    8   22   22   127.3  135   64   12   48   76    83
Bryan Augenstein  R      25     4.75     5    6   29   12    83.3   93   44    9   26   58    79
Brandon Dickson   R      27     4.83     7   10   28   24   149.0  173   80   16   47   96    78
Maikel Cleto      R      23     4.89     6    8   25   22   116.0  120   63   11   67   90    77
Nick Additon      L      24     5.07     6    9   26   25   138.3  148   78   19   60   91    74
Adam Ottavino     R      26     5.21     6    8   22   21   114.0  126   66   13   59   80    72
Brian Broderick   R      25     5.30     7   11   30   20   120.7  155   71   12   31   50    71
Joe Kelly         R      24     5.69     6   10   24   21   110.7  127   70   11   73   71    66
John Gast         L      23     6.01     5   11   25   24   139.3  168   93   17   78   79    63

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Jason Motte       R      30     3.12     4    2   67    0    57.7   49   20    5   18   56   120
Fernando Salas    R      27     3.21     4    3   59    0    61.7   52   22    6   21   60   117
Eduardo Sanchez   R      23     3.24     3    2   39    0    41.7   33   15    3   22   43   116
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Marc Rzepczynski  L      26     3.62     4    3   67    0    64.7   57   26    5   32   64   104
Mitchell Boggs    R      28     3.79     3    2   57    0    71.3   68   30    6   26   57    99
Arthur Rhodes     L      42     3.97     3    3   49    0    34.0   32   15    4   13   26    95
Chuckie Fick      R      26     4.00     4    3   51    0    63.0   58   28    5   33   51    94
Jordan Swagerty   R      22     4.24     4    4   36   12    85.0   82   40   10   34   66    89
Kyle McClellan    R      28     4.26     6    6   54    8    99.3   99   47   13   34   65    88
Ron Mahay         L      41     4.44     1    1   27    0    24.3   25   12    3    8   18    85
Jess Todd         R      26     4.45     3    4   55    0    60.7   62   30    6   25   51    84
J.C. Romero       L      36     4.46     1    1   45    0    34.3   34   17    3   22   25    84
Victor Marte      R      31     4.52     3    4   49    0    61.7   62   31    6   30   44    83
Adam Reifer       R      26     4.70     2    3   32    0    30.7   33   16    3   15   19    80
Ryan Franklin     R      39     4.71     2    3   31    0    36.3   40   19    5    8   23    80
Rich Rundles      L      31     4.74     2    3   43    0    38.0   41   20    4   18   25    79
Cory RauschenbergeR      27     4.81     2    3   39    0    58.0   63   31    6   25   27    78
Samuel Freeman    L      25     4.98     2    2   54    0    59.7   61   33    6   39   42    75
Blaine Boyer      R      30     5.36     2    3   38    3    50.3   59   30    6   23   26    70

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Lance Berkman        .286  .393  .517  2403  8376  1412  2394   521    37   448  1552  1457  1638   105   138
Matt Holliday        .296  .369  .494  2080  7855  1258  2326   536    35   315  1282   807  1352   144   126
Rafael Furcal        .275  .338  .397  2022  8113  1289  2233   388    80   146   730   761  1104   350    94
Yadier Molina        .274  .328  .375  2095  7148   612  1956   341    10   120   875   545   610    79    90
Jon Jay              .276  .327  .394  1582  4982   628  1375   262    27    90   461   324   744    94    97
Skip Schumaker       .279  .334  .361  1215  3908   503  1092   186    14    35   335   314   471    29    89
Allen Craig          .269  .321  .436  1094  3616   477   971   207     9   127   563   266   689    34   105
David Freese         .271  .325  .400   834  2834   316   769   136     9    70   419   203   592    10    98

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Chris Carpenter       173  119    0    3.78  442  415     2788 2794 1172  268  776 2097    112
Adam Wainwright       171  112    3    3.29  392  330     2297 2174  839  189  676 1954    119
Jaime Garcia          159  117    0    3.51  418  411     2469 2387  963  197  764 2041    107
Edwin Jackson         156  145    0    4.07  475  442     2830 2906 1280  274 1017 2129     98
Kyle Lohse            132  138    0    4.55  411  385     2272 2465 1147  274  678 1395     92
Jake Westbrook        103  108    0    4.42  334  293     1841 1976  904  168  621 1042     94

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Matt Holliday     LF     53%  30%  10%   5%   2%         Will Clark       Paul O’Neill         Bob Watson
Lance Berkman     RF     46%  27%  12%   9%   5%        Chili Davis      Ken Singleton       Dwight Evans
Allen Craig       LF     15%  30%  23%  19%  13%       Jose Guillen       Jermaine Dye        Xavier Nady
Yadier Molina     C      18%  36%  24%  17%   5%          Joe Azcue    Terry Steinbach          Tony Pena
Jon Jay           CF     12%  19%  30%  25%  14%    Terry Whitfield          Ken Berry       Ryan Sweeney
David Freese      3B      6%  18%  26%  27%  23%       Mike Blowers          Wes Helms       Brook Jacoby
Matt Adams        1B      1%   9%  14%  32%  43%       Scott Cooper        Daryle Ward   Domingo Martinez
Rafael Furcal     SS     19%  24%  30%  19%   8%     Tony Fernandez       Omar Vizquel       Billy Rogell
Zack Cox          3B      3%   7%  15%  28%  48%       Tom O’Malley      Robin Ventura         Roy Howell
Mark Hamilton     1B      0%   4%  10%  32%  53%      Jerry Willard       Lyle Overbay   Reggie Jefferson
Daniel Descalso   3B      2%   8%  19%  31%  40%      Jeff Treadway        Brent Gates       Ernest Riles
Matt Carpenter    3B      3%  10%  20%  30%  37%       Scott Cooper       Ernest Riles      Mark Naehring
Tyler Greene      SS     15%  24%  31%  21%  10%        Kurt Abbott         Greg Gagne         Julio Lugo
Skip Schumaker    2B      5%   7%  12%  24%  52%       Mark Loretta       Manny Trillo        Jim Gantner
Erik Komatsu      CF      4%   7%  19%  32%  39%       Jorge Cortes       Rick Manning          Curt Ford
Aaron Luna        LF      1%   3%   7%  18%  72%      Rob Teegarden       Kevin Romine           Tom Ealy
Bryan Anderson    C       3%  10%  19%  35%  34%          Tom Nieto        Darryl Cias       Geronimo Gil
Ryan Theriot      SS      2%   6%  18%  31%  43%    Brian Dallimore     David Eckstein    Ricky Gutierrez
Adron Chambers    CF      1%   4%  11%  25%  60%    Roger Bernadina    Herm Winningham        Angel Pagan
Shane Robinson    LF      0%   1%   2%   8%  88%      Kevin Estrada       Kevin Kasper       Dave Francia
Steve Hill        1B      0%   0%   1%  10%  88%          Terry Lee        Fred Cooley      Terrel Hansen
Jose Garcia       SS      0%   3%  13%  28%  56%        Jose Castro       Pedro Chavez   Jonathan Herrera
Donovan Solano    2B      0%   1%   2%   8%  89%     Jorge Velandia    Alvaro Espinoza    Joshua Lansford
Daryl Jones       LF      0%   1%   2%   4%  93%    Kevin Koslofski         Mike Neill      Vernon Thomas
Tony Cruz         C       1%   3%   6%  22%  68%  Salomon Manriquez      Eli Whiteside          Pat Cline
Ryan Jackson      SS      1%   2%   7%  20%  71%       Tim Naehring         David Lamb    Oswaldo Navarro
Pete Kozma        SS      0%   1%   3%   8%  88%      Gil Velazquez       Scott Powers     Travis Metcalf
Freddie Bynum     2B      0%   0%   0%   1%  99%     Pablo Martinez      Dave Matranga     Chris Petersen

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Adam Wainwright   SP      70%    25%     5%        Erik Hanson  Larry Christenson          Bob Welch
Jason Motte       RP      46%    43%    11%        Dan Wheeler      Mike Schooler          J.J. Putz
Fernando Salas    RP      39%    49%    12%     Trevor Hoffman       Stan Belinda     Cecilio Guante
Eduardo Sanchez   RP      35%    45%    20%         Si Johnson       Brian Bruney      Jose Valverde
Chris Carpenter   SP      40%    51%     8%      Rick Reuschel        Greg Maddux    Doyle Alexander
Jaime Garcia      SP      41%    53%     6%      Glendon Rusch        Mark Mulder         Jim Abbott
Marc Rzepczynski  RP      20%    51%    29%          Jim Poole       Dennys Reyes    Armando Almanza
Edwin Jackson     SP      31%    57%    11%        Jeff Weaver       Mark Bomback      Sidney Ponson
Mitchell Boggs    RP      12%    52%    35%        Albie Lopez        Jay Tessmer      Brian Schmack
Arthur Rhodes     RP      23%    28%    49%       Mike Stanton     Rick Honeycutt       Brian Shouse
Chuckie Fick      RP      11%    38%    51%          Mark Acre     Brandon Puffer       Mike Schultz
Shelby Miller     SP      21%    56%    23%      Jason Schmidt         Tim Hudson    Steve Bedrosian
Lance Lynn        SP      17%    54%    29%           Pat Rapp   Keith Macwhorter        Kevin Lomon
Jordan Swagerty   RP       3%    33%    64%          Rich Yett      Victor Santos    Charlie Kerfeld
Kyle McClellan    RP       2%    29%    69%        Mario Brito      Willie Fraser      Travis Harper
Kyle Lohse        SP       7%    40%    54%        Dave Eiland        Pat Ahearne      Mickey Weston
Ron Mahay         RP      18%    19%    63%        Joe Hoerner        Buddy Groom       Jeff Fassero
Jess Todd         RP       4%    26%    70%   Derek Hasselhoff        Bobby Moore        Edwin Nunez
J.C. Romero       RP      10%    27%    63%       Kevin Hickey    Vic Darensbourg      Dave Righetti
Jake Westbrook    SP       3%    30%    67%         Aaron Sele      Omar Olivares        Pat Ahearne
Victor Marte      RP       2%    24%    73%        Marcus Gwyn     Miguel Saladin     Dave Wainhouse
Adam Reifer       RP       7%    19%    74%          Tom Dukes         Dave Pagan       Steve Barber
Ryan Franklin     RP      12%    21%    67%     Boom-Boom Beck          Dick Hall       Orlando Pena
Rich Rundles      RP       4%    18%    78%       Joey Eischen        Bryan Clark        Matt Dunbar
Bryan Augenstein  SP       2%    16%    83%       Brady Raggio          Tony Pena      Mike Thompson
Cory RauschenbergeRP       1%    14%    85%       Robert Paulk       Andy Nezelek    Robert Tenenini
Brandon Dickson   SP       1%    17%    82%      Tim Harikkala     LaTroy Hawkins       Joel Pineiro
Maikel Cleto      SP       1%    19%    80%   Richard Bartlett     Bill Mooneyham        Matt Wright
Samuel Freeman    RP       0%    11%    88%       Tom Thurberg     Carlos Cabassa   Dean Brueggemann
Nick Additon      SP       0%    10%    90%       Benj Sampson     Bryan Braswell     Pedro Martinez
Adam Ottavino     SP       0%    10%    90%      Wilton Chavez       Steven White      Bobby Rodgers
Brian Broderick   SP       0%     7%    93%         Tim Kester         Chris Holt     Nick Blackburn
Blaine Boyer      RP       0%     7%    93%        Steve Mintz        Bob Scanlan        Chuck Smith
Joe Kelly         SP       0%     2%    98%     Jason Phillips       Chad Paronto     Jeff Bumgarner
John Gast         SP       0%     0%   100%       John Koronka      Mike Hinckley       Keith Seiler

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Matt Holliday           32%      43%      33%      14%       0%      11%      31%       3%
Lance Berkman           14%      56%      30%       0%       0%       8%      34%       0%
Allen Craig             17%       5%      13%       0%       0%       2%       5%       0%
Yadier Molina           27%      10%       1%       1%       0%       1%       1%       1%
Jon Jay                 21%       5%       1%       1%       1%       0%       1%       3%
David Freese            13%       4%       3%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Matt Adams               6%       1%       3%       1%       5%       6%       1%       0%
Rafael Furcal            8%       7%       2%       0%       1%       0%       2%       1%
Zack Cox                16%       3%       2%       2%       0%       2%       2%       0%
Mark Hamilton            3%       7%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Daniel Descalso          7%       4%       1%       1%       4%       0%       1%       0%
Matt Carpenter           2%      11%       1%       1%       4%       0%       1%       0%
Tyler Greene             0%       1%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%      14%
Skip Schumaker          14%       5%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Erik Komatsu             3%       4%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%      10%
Aaron Luna               0%       6%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Bryan Anderson           2%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Ryan Theriot            11%       4%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       3%
Adron Chambers           1%       2%       0%       0%      42%       0%       0%       2%
Shane Robinson           3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Steve Hill               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jose Garcia              3%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%      10%
Donovan Solano           1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Daryl Jones              0%       1%       0%       0%       6%       0%       0%       0%
Tony Cruz                1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ryan Jackson             0%       0%       0%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Pete Kozma               0%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Freddie Bynum            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Adam Wainwright           33%        87%        50%        16%        93%
Jason Motte               37%        84%        75%        13%        77%
Fernando Salas            31%        78%        71%         9%        76%
Eduardo Sanchez           35%        73%        77%         0%        91%
Chris Carpenter           10%        71%         7%        34%        92%
Jaime Garcia              11%        71%        16%         9%        94%
Marc Rzepczynski          15%        64%        77%         0%        88%
Edwin Jackson              6%        59%         8%         2%        92%
Mitchell Boggs             9%        50%        19%         2%        86%
Arthur Rhodes             16%        51%        21%        15%        68%
Chuckie Fick               8%        42%        22%         0%        85%
Shelby Miller              4%        42%        70%         0%        92%
Lance Lynn                 2%        38%         7%         0%        98%
Jordan Swagerty            2%        25%        12%         0%        44%
Kyle McClellan             1%        21%         0%         3%        41%
Kyle Lohse                 1%        18%         1%        13%        67%
Ron Mahay                 11%        37%        16%        18%        67%
Jess Todd                  3%        24%        30%         1%        74%
J.C. Romero               10%        28%        12%         0%        82%
Jake Westbrook             0%        11%         0%         1%        74%
Victor Marte               1%        16%         4%         0%        70%
Adam Reifer                4%        18%         4%         2%        74%
Ryan Franklin              9%        27%         4%        55%        42%
Rich Rundles               4%        15%         3%         1%        66%
Bryan Augenstein           1%        14%         2%        13%        58%
Cory Rauschenberge         1%        11%         0%         2%        60%
Brandon Dickson            0%         4%         0%         4%        61%
Maikel Cleto               0%         4%        11%         0%        72%
Samuel Freeman             0%         8%         4%         0%        72%
Nick Additon               0%         2%         0%         0%        22%
Adam Ottavino              0%         2%         1%         0%        62%
Brian Broderick            0%         1%         0%        32%        70%
Blaine Boyer               0%         5%         0%         0%        66%
Joe Kelly                  0%         0%         0%         0%        64%
John Gast                  0%         0%         0%         0%        45%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
Dodgers
Twins
Giants
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 17, 2011 at 03:15 AM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. The Hal Lanier Hitting Academy Posted: December 17, 2011 at 03:40 AM (#4018225)
Dan - Since you made the Angels projections prior to the Pujols deal, could you please include his projection here?
   2. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: December 17, 2011 at 04:03 AM (#4018234)
They're near the point at which they have to throw in the towel on Westbrook, past the point at which they have to throw in the towel on Westbrook


Am I misreading this or was there supposed to be a different name for the first Westbrook?

Cosigned on the Pujols request. And I'd love to see his projected career numbers.
   3. cardsfanboy Posted: December 17, 2011 at 04:04 AM (#4018236)
Looks like a very good offense even without Pujols(and if any of Freese, Craig, Descalso, or Greene take the leap, this could be a great offense)

Pitching is a little top heavy though. I think they are in pretty good shape. Lack depth in the rotation for when someone goes down though.
   4. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: December 17, 2011 at 04:24 AM (#4018243)
#1: +1

Also, is that a HoF line I spy from Berkman?
   5. esseff Posted: December 17, 2011 at 04:35 AM (#4018248)
m I misreading this or was there supposed to be a different name for the first Westbrook?


Lohse?
   6. Tuque Posted: December 17, 2011 at 04:56 AM (#4018256)
Nick Additon SP 0% 10% 90% Benj Sampson Bryan Braswell Pedro Martinez

weird
   7. Sweatpants Posted: December 17, 2011 at 05:14 AM (#4018261)
Nick Additon SP 0% 10% 90% Benj Sampson Bryan Braswell Pedro Martinez


weird
Since the other three guys on the list were lefty relievers, I'm assuming that this refers to Pedro the Lesser.
   8. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: December 17, 2011 at 05:16 AM (#4018263)
That's some brutal looking defense. Other than Yadier, is there are an above average guy in there?
   9. davekemp Posted: December 17, 2011 at 05:27 AM (#4018266)
Pedro a Martinez? Heh

Edit. Coke to sweatpants
   10. John DiFool2 Posted: December 17, 2011 at 05:55 AM (#4018282)
Nick Additon SP 0% 10% 90% Benj Sampson Bryan Braswell Pedro Martinez


Leonard Bernstein?
   11. greenback calls it soccer Posted: December 17, 2011 at 06:21 AM (#4018292)
Daryl Jones signed with the Reds, silencing his weird blogger cult for the time being.
   12. Walt Davis Posted: December 17, 2011 at 10:11 AM (#4018314)
Also, is that a HoF line I spy from Berkman?

Not if history is any guide. Career not long enough, no milestones. Giambi, Walker, Delgado, W Clark, J Clark, Reggie Smith, Brian Giles, Boog Powell, Singleton are all in roughly the same OPS+ and PA range as that projection.

Given at the moment we have Bagwell, Edgar, Raines on the outside and Walker and McGriff not even close, the standards for corner players are very high right now.
   13. Walt Davis Posted: December 17, 2011 at 10:19 AM (#4018316)
Oopsy, retract that. ZiPS use of AB rather than PA gets me again!!

That projection puts Berkman near 10000 PA. That's happier company but still a mixed bag. Actually not a lot of corner players in this group. AROD, Chipper, Griffey, Brett, Morgan, Carew, Boggs. The corner guys are Vlad (better chance than Lance I think), Sheffield (roids will keep him out if nothing else), Reggie (500+ HR), McGriff (nope), B Williams (pretty Berkman-like), Palmeiro (again with the roids), Gwynn (3000 hits, high BA) and Winfield (3000 hits). The only one who's made it without a milestone is Williams although Chipper should be the second.

So my guess is no but he's pretty close.
   14. gnomestani Posted: December 17, 2011 at 10:47 AM (#4018325)
Co-signed on a Pujols request. Also, any chance that we could get looks at projections on Alan Ahmady, Kolten Wong, and Carlos Martinez?
   15. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: December 17, 2011 at 05:02 PM (#4018412)
Freese is 28 year. Why do people keep thinking he will be any better than he is now?
   16. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: December 17, 2011 at 06:24 PM (#4018460)
Freese is 28 year. Why do people keep thinking he will be any better than he is now?


Sheep mentality?
   17. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 17, 2011 at 06:49 PM (#4018473)
If you don't mind, Dan, I'd be interested in a projection for Tommy Pham.
   18. BobbyS Posted: December 17, 2011 at 08:22 PM (#4018524)
Co-signed on a Pujols request. Also, any chance that we could get looks at projections on Alan Ahmady, Kolten Wong, and Carlos Martinez?


From Twitter:

I avoid projecting based on 2 months in middle-A ball unless it's an exception that I *have* to project for coming year...

For example, Weeks. Wong will certainly projected for 2013.
   19. cardsfanboy Posted: December 17, 2011 at 09:32 PM (#4018581)
Freese is 28 year. Why do people keep thinking he will be any better than he is now?


He posted a 120 ops+ last season, if that is his actual ability, I don't think anyone thinks he's going to get better, but this projection has him posting a 98 ops+, he's never posted below 109 in the majors(true only 667 pa in his ml career)
   20. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 17, 2011 at 10:07 PM (#4018614)
Problem is, Freese's MLB numbers are fueled by a crazy .365 BABIP. He's likely now to have a BABIP significantly better than average, but not .365.
   21. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 17, 2011 at 10:18 PM (#4018623)
I feel like Holliday's been a very underrated player. Perhaps because he started out in Coors?
   22. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 18, 2011 at 12:40 AM (#4018693)
Dan, if you provide Pujols 2012 projection, could you also share his projected career with us too? Thanks!
   23. cardsfanboy Posted: December 18, 2011 at 02:27 AM (#4018718)
Problem is, Freese's MLB numbers are fueled by a crazy .365 BABIP. He's likely now to have a BABIP significantly better than average, but not .365.


Likely true, but I give the player the benefit of the doubt until he fails. I fully expect Freese to be a 110 ops+ player over the next five seasons. I don't think it's a stretch to say he could be a 120 or better.
   24. Eddie Gaedel Posted: December 18, 2011 at 03:05 AM (#4018730)
Really? Nobody on the team with more than 21 HR? And that looks like a full season of PA for Berkman/Holliday/Cox/Adams, and nobody aside from those guys are projected for more than 11 HR.

However, I like Craig's 112 OPS+ and I'll take a 100 OPS+ from our starting CF. We really need at least one of our corner IF to hit better than 110 OPS+, though.

Harveys (#15)... He's 28 this year--prime years, if healthy. I think his health is the big variable; his true talent is likely good D with 110 OPS+ bat... at least for the next 3 years or so.
   25. Sleepy supports unauthorized rambling Posted: December 18, 2011 at 03:24 AM (#4018738)
Also, assuming that the surgery really did fix Freese's ankles, he should have more power this year.
   26. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: December 18, 2011 at 11:51 AM (#4018832)
I completely acknowledge that Freese has hit at every level.

But he's not young. He will be 29 in April.

He struck out 75 times in in 333 at bats in 2011 and 134 in his 573 major league at bats. I know with guys like Drew Stubbs around that seems like no big deal but if all the appearances had come in a full 2011 season Freese would have been just outside the top ten in the league in strikeouts.

He made the top ten in grounding into double plays.

He better start hitting for some more power because that is a fair amount of baggage to be carrying as a player and still be considered a positive.
   27. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: December 19, 2011 at 06:13 PM (#4019342)
I'd also like a Pham projection, if you please.
   28. esseff Posted: December 19, 2011 at 06:29 PM (#4019353)
That'd be interesting. For years, he was all tools, no numbers. And then, suddenly, wham.
   29. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: December 19, 2011 at 06:38 PM (#4019364)
Freese is 28 year. Why do people keep thinking he will be any better than he is now?

Maybe the "late start", which was basically one year off.
   30. cardsfanboy Posted: December 21, 2011 at 11:46 PM (#4021485)
Just reading the extrapolated careers, I'm pretty sure something was messed up in Yadier Molina's career stolen base totals, I do not see him getting 54 more stolen bases over the rest of his career(he has 25, the projection has him at 79).

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