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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, February 02, 2012

2012 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks

The most encouraging thing about Arizona’s season, well, other than the trip to the playoffs, is just how quickly and efficiently they turned over a horrific 2010 bullpen.  The favorite quote of Branch Rickey among statheads (myself included) is “Luck is the residue of design.”  That kinda describes how the Diamondback bullpen worked so quickly - in every situation, both in performance and dollars, Arizona acquired relievers that would be a great help to the team in the upside and harmless on the downside.  It’s not that marginal relievers with limited service time like David Hernandez or Joe Paterson are inherently better relievers than a number of major league veterans, but that when a Hernandez hits his upside, you get a solid reliever for years, while if you sign some fringey J.C. Romero veteran-type, his upside just results in him signing an overpaid deal elsewhere in a year.

The best thing the Diamondbacks could do at this point is to apply this thinking to their role players on offense.  Arizona got a lot of Ryan Roberts, but they only got that out of Ryan Roberts because a terrible, older, more expensive option that the team preferred, Geoff Blum, was injured.  The team’s still doubling-down on the strategy that almost resulted in Roberts never getting playing time and has this strange proclivity to acquire excess utility infielders.  Having John McDonald, Geoff Blum, and Willie Bloomquist all signed to major league contracts is the equivalent of designing a jumbo jet to have one engine and no mechanical backups to the landing gear but making sure there are 3 backup fridges in the galley to hold cans of soda.  Thanks to the team’s policy of making a bench a charity for unemployed baseball players in their 30s, they were very lucky that Drew was the only major injury in the lineup.

Despite this problem, there are no dominating teams in the NL West and Arizona should be right there at the end of the season.  ZiPS absolutely loves their pitching staff.  ZiPS has always been super positive about Daniel Hudson and he hasn’t yet done anything to dislodge ZiPS from its computer-crush.

Next Up: Miami Marlins

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Justin Upton      R    RF   24   .283 .366 .505 156 580  94 164  35   5  28  89  68 146  22   9  128
Jason Kubel       L    RF   30   .277 .342 .487 128 458  57 127  27   3  21  81  45  95   1   1  117
Paul Goldschmidt  R    1B   24   .250 .340 .472 156 579  77 145  32   3  30  92  75 193   8   2  113
Miguel Montero    L    C    28   .265 .336 .438 121 411  51 109  27   1  14  60  40  86   1   1  103
Gerardo Parra     L    LF   25   .279 .336 .411 155 506  59 141  25   9   8  52  42  96  12   4   97
Chris Young       R    CF   28   .242 .332 .435 153 550  82 133  34   3  22  71  74 149  19   7  102
Stephen Drew      L    SS   29   .267 .330 .435 123 469  65 125  28   9  11  60  44  90   6   4  101
Lyle Overbay      L    1B   35   .251 .333 .420 123 414  52 104  27   2  13  55  50  92   1   1   99
Aaron Hill        R    2B   30   .265 .318 .424 134 528  68 140  29   2  17  71  36  72  11   4   95
Ryan Roberts      R    3B   31   .250 .333 .407 132 432  63 108  23   3  13  52  53  92  14   7   95
David Winfree     R    LF   26   .258 .303 .427 103 384  41  99  22   2  13  58  22  80   4   2   91
Cole Gillespie    R    RF   28   .241 .320 .387 136 478  55 115  22   9  10  59  52 115  13   4   87
A.J. Pollock      R    CF   24   .263 .303 .375 126 506  68 133  29   5   6  47  29  96  21   6   79
Ryan Wheeler      L    3B   23   .262 .308 .395 156 608  59 159  32   2  15  79  38 145   3   4   85
Andy Tracy        L    1B   38   .221 .305 .403  96 335  35  74  18   2  13  43  40 104   2   0   86
Adam Eaton        L    RF   23   .253 .335 .360 145 581  69 147  24   7   8  63  52 108  30  16   85
Geoff Blum        B    3B   39   .262 .316 .369  59 141  14  37   7   1   2  17  10  18   0   0   81
Cody Ransom       R    SS   36   .225 .289 .405 108 378  43  85  22   2  14  52  32 113   6   2   82
Xavier Nady       R    1B   33   .253 .301 .371  81 229  26  58  12   0   5  29  13  52   1   0   77
Henry Blanco      R    C    40   .243 .307 .388  39 103  10  25   4   1   3  10  10  22   0   1   83
Matthew Davidson  R    1B   21   .234 .296 .389 156 606  71 142  36   2  18  87  46 191   0   2   80
Willie Bloomquist R    SS   34   .258 .305 .348  95 302  39  78   9   3   4  22  19  46  15   7   73
Marc Krauss       L    RF   24   .228 .296 .382 152 566  67 129  26   5  17  64  54 185   2   3   78
Mark Hallberg     R    2B   26   .258 .311 .347 140 484  49 125  28   3   3  55  36  50   5   4   75
Bobby Borchering  B    1B   21   .231 .286 .378 156 619  58 143  31   3  18  74  45 201   3   1   75
Konrad Schmidt    R    C    27   .249 .291 .370 113 433  36 108  25   3   7  44  20  97   2   3   74
Michael Restovich R    LF   33   .237 .293 .367  85 283  32  67  15   2   6  26  22  80   0   1   74
Jason Lane        R    LF   35   .228 .289 .370  82 311  38  71  19   2   7  33  26  64   2   2   74
Rusty Ryal        R    LF   28   .246 .295 .367  94 256  28  63  12   2   5  23  12  73   1   3   79
John McDonald     R    3B   37   .251 .283 .374  71 187  21  47  10   2   3  21   8  23   2   3   73
Angel Berroa      R    SS   32   .246 .282 .353  52 167  17  41  10   1   2  17   7  31   2   1   68
Ollie Linton      L    LF   26   .245 .323 .309 125 437  50 107  12   5   2  32  42 125  16  11   69
Craig Tatum       R    C    29   .228 .282 .312  66 202  18  46   9   1   2  23  15  46   1   1   58
Tommy Manzella    R    SS   29   .220 .269 .312 128 446  48  98  18   4   5  44  29 127   6   4   54
Ryan Budde        R    C    32   .196 .260 .298  71 235  23  46  10   1   4  22  19  83   1   1   48

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Justin Upton                                                                 VG/154
Jason Kubel                                                   FR/92           FR/93
Paul Goldschmidt              FR/96
Miguel Montero           VG
Gerardo Parra                                                 EX/88  AV/153   VG/85
Chris Young                                                           VG/87
Stephen Drew                                          AV/71
Lyle Overbay                  AV/75
Aaron Hill                            AV/75
Ryan Roberts                         AV/118   AV/86  PO/108  AV/119
David Winfree                 FR/99                          FR/101          AV/160
Cole Gillespie                                                VG/96   PO/78   AV/86
A.J. Pollock                                                          FR/55  AV/110
Ryan Wheeler                 FR/119          PO/108          FR/114
Andy Tracy                   AV/118          PO/112
Adam Eaton                                                    AV/96  FR/117   AV/96
Geoff Blum                   AV/100  FR/107   AV/47  PO/108
Cody Ransom                  FR/111   FR/99  FR/148  FR/106                  AV/127
Xavier Nady                   AV/91                          AV/100          FR/108
Henry Blanco             EX
Matthew Davidson             AV/106          FR/131
Willie Bloomquist            VG/110  AV/111  VG/109   FR/98   FR/85           FR/94
Marc Krauss                  FR/120                          PO/163          FR/131
Mark Hallberg                AV/118   AV/51   AV/83   FR/93
Bobby Borchering             FR/137          PO/176          FR/141
Konrad Schmidt           AV   FR/87
Michael Restovich            AV/105                          FR/135          FR/126
Jason Lane                   FR/101                          FR/110           FR/92
Rusty Ryal                   AV/157  FR/101  FR/128  FR/119  AV/132
John McDonald                         VG/93  AV/100   VG/85  AV/112
Angel Berroa                          AV/99  FR/110  PO/103  FR/115
Ollie Linton                                                  AV/78   FR/82   AV/96
Craig Tatum              VG
Tommy Manzella                        VG/94           AV/84
Ryan Budde               AV  AV/118  PO/118  AV/118

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Ian Kennedy       R      27     3.42    11    7   26   26   163.3  146   62   17   49  143   123
Daniel Hudson     R      25     3.42    16   10   32   31   192.0  178   73   17   52  163   123
Trevor Cahill     R      24     3.90    14   11   32   32   200.7  193   87   21   68  143   108
Josh Collmenter   R      26     4.15    10    9   28   25   143.0  142   66   16   49  100   101
Trevor Bauer      R      21     4.18     9    8   24   24   140.0  128   65   19   64  143   101  
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Joe Saunders      L      31     4.57    11   12   29   29   181.3  193   92   25   60  103    92
Tyler Skaggs      L      20     4.58     7    8   26   24   127.7  129   65   17   55  101    92
Zach Duke         L      29     4.88     7    9   25   19   127.3  148   69   16   34   67    86
Wade Miley        L      25     4.94     7    9   27   26   142.0  162   78   15   63   90    85
Zach Kroenke      L      28     4.99     5    6   31   13   101.0  117   56   10   42   57    84
Patrick Corbin    L      22     5.00     7    9   26   26   140.3  159   78   19   47   97    84
Brett Lorin       R      25     5.06     5    6   21   17    90.7  101   51   14   30   57    83
Barry Enright     R      26     5.09     7   10   26   26   150.3  168   85   26   47   90    83
Kevin Mulvey      R      27     5.17     6    8   25   23   130.7  152   75   15   52   74    81
Joe Martinez      R      29     5.22     5    7   27   15   100.0  123   58   11   32   57    80
Wes Roemer        R      25     5.52     6    9   25   24   137.0  164   84   20   52   82    76
Gaby Hernandez    R      26     6.30     6   12   26   24   131.3  159   92   26   63   78    67

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Takashi Saito     R      42     3.00     3    2   37    0    33.0   28   11    3   10   33   140
J.J. Putz         R      35     3.13     4    2   50    0    46.0   38   16    4   14   49   134
David Hernandez   R      27     3.44     4    3   68    0    65.3   54   25    6   30   72   122
Brad Ziegler      R      32     3.47     4    2   63    0    59.7   57   23    4   22   46   121
Craig Breslow     L      31     3.73     4    3   68    0    62.7   57   26    7   23   55   113
Joe Paterson      L      26     3.86     4    3   60    0    51.3   49   22    4   24   42   109
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Jonathan AlbaladejR      29     4.04     3    3   45    0    49.0   47   22    6   19   41   104
Bryan Shaw        R      24     4.21     3    3   63    0    66.3   66   31    7   27   49   100
Kameron Mickolio  R      28     4.29     4    4   47    0    56.7   55   27    6   26   56    98
Jensen Lewis      R      28     4.35     3    3   41    0    51.7   52   25    6   23   43    96
Mike DeMark       R      29     4.53     2    2   43    0    45.7   46   23    5   23   37    93
Sam Demel         R      26     4.56     3    3   53    0    51.3   53   26    6   24   38    92
Mike Zagurski     L      29     4.70     2    3   52    0    53.7   52   28    6   32   50    89
Jason Lane        L      35     4.91     0    0    4    0     7.3    8    4    1    2    4    86
Chris Jakubauskas R      33     5.09     3    4   27    8    70.7   79   40   10   26   44    82
Yonata Ortega     R      25     5.15     2    3   47    0    50.7   53   29    6   33   42    82

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Justin Upton         .269  .354  .471  2507  9255  1420  2489   533    80   393  1288  1105  2271   274   116
Stephen Drew         .263  .322  .424  1769  6786   885  1785   389   117   157   807   590  1166    71    94
Chris Young          .240  .322  .422  2006  7292  1034  1747   447    39   269   898   872  1743   220    94
Aaron Hill           .263  .315  .411  1672  6474   823  1702   357    22   186   804   439   858   103    91
Jason Kubel          .269  .331  .454  1551  5443   658  1463   304    29   216   889   507  1059    15   107
Miguel Montero       .263  .329  .425  1653  5532   658  1454   350    14   173   769   503  1019    12    98
Gerardo Parra        .274  .331  .400  1582  5141   588  1410   254    78    78   532   419   966    95    93
Lyle Overbay         .264  .346  .429  1560  5304   683  1400   370    14   160   704   665  1130    18   104

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Trevor Cahill         222  166    0    3.82  487  487     3052 2849 1296  348 1054 2236    109
Daniel Hudson         207  124    0    3.42  418  405     2555 2349  970  239  685 2222    122
Ian Kennedy           137   90    0    3.69  343  339     2121 1928  869  241  676 1835    113
Joe Saunders          127  121    0    4.49  328  326     2011 2157 1003  277  670 1117     95
Zach Duke              91  126    8    4.73  329  284     1804 2158  948  211  484  945     89

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Justin Upton      RF     45%  32%  12%   7%   3%    Danny Tartabull        Chili Davis     Frank Robinson
Jason Kubel       RF     20%  32%  20%  16%  11%      Paul Sorrento      Geoff Jenkins      Brian Daubach
Paul Goldschmidt  1B     11%  26%  22%  26%  15%        Nick Esasky        Josh Phelps        Carlos Pena
Miguel Montero    C      26%  36%  21%  13%   4%      Terry Kennedy    Eddie Taubensee       Dave Nilsson
Gerardo Parra     LF      3%  10%  16%  27%  44%      David DeJesus      Dave Martinez     David Dellucci
Chris Young       CF     18%  23%  31%  20%   8%       Jon Nunnally        Jonny Gomes        Ernie Young
Stephen Drew      SS     25%  26%  27%  16%   6%         Greg Gagne   Mickey Morandini        Mark Teahen
Lyle Overbay      1B      2%   8%  12%  32%  45%          Ron Santo       Kevin Barker        Lee Stevens
Aaron Hill        2B     17%  16%  19%  24%  23%   Webster Garrison         Bret Boone        Steve Sisco
Ryan Roberts      3B      5%  14%  21%  28%  33%       Jeff Blauser        Kelly Heath         Jed Hansen
David Winfree     LF      1%   5%  11%  24%  59%       Wes Bankston         Ron Coomer        Mark Blaser
Cole Gillespie    RF      1%   5%   8%  19%  67%         Brad Tyler        Kenny Kelly         Bob Brower
A.J. Pollock      CF      1%   4%  16%  32%  46%        Dan Gladden        Xavier Paul        Chris James
Ryan Wheeler      3B      2%   4%   8%  19%  66%       Brook Jacoby       Scott Cooper     George Hinshaw
Andy Tracy        1B      2%   6%   6%  18%  67%         Bob Brenly        Lee Stevens      Chris Richard
Adam Eaton        RF      2%   4%   6%  12%  77%         Jon Saffer      Shin-Soo Choo          Curt Ford
Geoff Blum        3B      1%   3%   7%  15%  74%       Mark Loretta      Jim Davenport         Joe Stripp
Cody Ransom       SS      8%  11%  20%  27%  33%       Shane Halter         Rico Rossy       Mike Bordick
Xavier Nady       1B      0%   0%   1%   9%  89%          Wes Helms       Dusty Wathan   Darrell Whitmore
Henry Blanco      C       5%  13%  14%  25%  43%       Jim Sundberg          Jim Hegan        Rick Cerone
Matthew Davidson  1B      0%   1%   3%  12%  83%       Brett Harper       Nate Rolison      Richie Sexson
Willie Bloomquist SS      3%   5%  12%  22%  58%      Aaron Holbert      Jose Vizcaino        Rey Sanchez
Marc Krauss       RF      0%   1%   3%   7%  89%      Brent Clevlen     Chito Martinez      George Canale
Mark Hallberg     2B      1%   2%   4%  13%  80%      Keoni DeRenne       Craig Wilson         Bucky Dent
Bobby Borchering  1B      0%   1%   2%   8%  90%     Nelson Simmons        Corey Myers        John Hanley
Konrad Schmidt    C       1%   3%   7%  23%  67%  Salomon Manriquez        Mike Rabelo         Dan Wilson
Michael Restovich LF      0%   0%   1%   3%  96%   Darrell Whitmore        Orsino Hill        Dann Howitt
Jason Lane        LF      0%   1%   1%   4%  94%       Felipe Zayas       Chad Mottola      Alan Cockrell
Rusty Ryal        LF      0%   0%   1%   3%  96%      Bob Detherage       Nick Alvarez        Jeremy Ware
John McDonald     3B      2%   1%   2%   5%  89%        Juan Castro         Pete Suder       Jeff Branson
Angel Berroa      SS      1%   2%   7%  16%  74%         Kevin Baez         Gary Green        Juan Castro
Ollie Linton      LF      0%   0%   0%   1%  99%         Jeff Stone      Dave Brundage      Marvin Benard
Craig Tatum       C       0%   0%   1%   4%  95%       Chris Tremie        Joe Hietpas     Bill Dobrolsky
Tommy Manzella    SS      0%   0%   1%   4%  94%     Chris Petersen     Frank Kremblas       Erick Monzon
Ryan Budde        C       0%   0%   1%   3%  96%      Jayhawk Owens       Chad Moeller     Charlie Greene

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Takashi Saito     RP      66%    27%     7%     Larry Andersen      Satchel Paige         Doug Jones
J.J. Putz         RP      69%    26%     5%       Todd Worrell          Danny Cox       Billy Taylor
Ian Kennedy       SP      76%    19%     5%       Tommy Greene     Curt Schilling     Kevin Millwood
Daniel Hudson     SP      76%    19%     5%       John Thomson      Frank Pastore       Roy Halladay
David Hernandez   RP      51%    42%     7%       Bryan Harvey         Ryne Duren           Jim Kern
Brad Ziegler      RP      47%    44%     9%         Danny Kolb     Dwight Bernard    Warren Brusstar
Craig Breslow     RP      34%    49%    17%        Alan Embree         Dan Plesac         Gary Wayne
Joe Paterson      RP      29%    48%    23%      Grant Jackson       Randy Choate      Chris Marchok
Trevor Cahill     SP      47%    48%     5%       Andy Hawkins        Jon Garland          Jay Tibbs
Jonathan AlbaladejRP      21%    49%    30%      Matt Karchner         Tim Layana       Rocky Cherry
Josh Collmenter   SP      29%    57%    14%          T.J. Nall        Kevin Olsen      Greg Brummett
Trevor Bauer      SP     ————————-         Jason Bere         Eric Gagne        John Smoltz
Bryan Shaw        RP      12%    51%    36%       Chris George        Josh Kinney       Jose Ascanio
Kameron Mickolio  RP      15%    43%    42%          Karl Best        Greg Aquino      Jorge Vasquez
Jensen Lewis      RP      11%    42%    47%      Gerry Hannahs    David Holdridge        Gene Harris
Mike DeMark       RP      10%    35%    55%          Mike Cook     Doug Robertson    Franklyn German
Sam Demel         RP      11%    40%    49%       Brandon Kolb     Miguel Saladin          Scott Gay
Joe Saunders      SP      11%    56%    33%        Kirk Rueter   Dennis Rasmussen     Scott McGregor
Tyler Skaggs      SP      12%    50%    38%        Scott Downs       Sean Maloney       Jack Lazorko
Mike Zagurski     RP       7%    34%    59%       Tim Fortugno      Greg McCarthy        Kevin Tolar
Zach Duke         SP       7%    40%    53%   Mark Hendrickson        Scott Downs        Mike Maroth
Jason Lane        RP      32%    22%    46%      Morrie Martin     Lee Guetterman     Eric Gunderson
Wade Miley        SP       3%    39%    58%        Alex Graman       Chris George       Jake Chapman
Zach Kroenke      SP       1%    19%    79%     Jeff Musselman       Rich Rundles          Dave Otto
Patrick Corbin    SP       3%    35%    62%      Glendon Rusch       Derrin Ebert    John Rheinecker
Brett Lorin       SP       4%    36%    60%    Travis Thompson         Jack Hardy     Jason Stephens
Barry Enright     SP       1%    30%    69%      Jerry Kutzler    Steve Ellsworth      Travis Harper
Chris Jakubauskas RP       3%    20%    78%       Danny Graves      Sam Arrington        Jeff Harris
Yonata Ortega     RP       2%    21%    77%       Pete Sikaras         Jeff Smith       Calvin Jones
Kevin Mulvey      SP       2%    28%    70%       Marcus Jones        John Snyder        Jake Joseph
Joe Martinez      SP       4%    32%    64%      Tim Harikkala     Dave Borkowski        Jack Lamabe
Wes Roemer        SP       0%    13%    86%       David Pauley         Rick Bauer        Kevin Olsen
Gaby Hernandez    SP       0%     2%    98%       Vance Cozier   Giovanni Carrara         Joe Ganote

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Justin Upton            22%      34%      52%      16%      12%      46%      24%      18%
Jason Kubel             19%      12%      38%       1%       2%       9%      10%       0%
Paul Goldschmidt         2%      10%      25%       7%       3%      55%       7%       1%
Miguel Montero          10%       9%       9%       1%       0%       1%       2%       0%
Gerardo Parra           18%       6%       2%       0%      37%       1%       1%       1%
Chris Young              0%       4%       5%       9%       2%      11%       1%       9%
Stephen Drew             9%       5%       7%       1%      37%       1%       2%       0%
Lyle Overbay             3%       8%       4%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Aaron Hill               8%       2%       5%       2%       1%       3%       0%       1%
Ryan Roberts             3%       7%       2%       0%       1%       0%       1%       4%
David Winfree            4%       0%       4%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Cole Gillespie           1%       2%       2%       0%      43%       0%       1%       1%
A.J. Pollock             6%       0%       0%       2%       7%       0%       0%      12%
Ryan Wheeler             5%       1%       4%       7%       2%       4%       1%       0%
Andy Tracy               1%       3%       6%       0%       1%       1%       2%       0%
Adam Eaton               3%       6%       1%       1%      22%       1%       1%      45%
Geoff Blum              17%       9%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Cody Ransom              1%       0%       5%       0%       1%       1%       0%       0%
Xavier Nady              6%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Henry Blanco            11%       9%       5%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Matthew Davidson         0%       0%       2%      20%       1%       8%       0%       0%
Willie Bloomquist        9%       2%       1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       5%
Marc Krauss              0%       0%       0%       1%      10%       3%       0%       0%
Mark Hallberg            4%       1%       0%       2%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Bobby Borchering         0%       0%       1%       8%       2%       7%       0%       0%
Konrad Schmidt           2%       0%       1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Michael Restovich        1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jason Lane               1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Rusty Ryal               3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
John McDonald           10%       1%       4%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%
Angel Berroa             6%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ollie Linton             1%       2%       0%       0%       6%       0%       0%       1%
Craig Tatum              1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Tommy Manzella           0%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Ryan Budde               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Takashi Saito             55%        89%        74%        25%        81%
J.J. Putz                 61%        92%        87%        21%        77%
Ian Kennedy               35%        90%        43%         6%        67%
Daniel Hudson             40%        91%        30%        19%        85%
David Hernandez           43%        87%        93%         0%        75%
Brad Ziegler              39%        88%        13%         3%        96%
Craig Breslow             27%        78%        40%         3%        66%
Joe Paterson              22%        71%        21%         0%        88%
Trevor Cahill             11%        76%         2%         1%        62%
Jonathan Albaladej        15%        62%        25%         4%        47%
Josh Collmenter            5%        59%         2%         1%        58%
Bryan Shaw                 9%        57%         7%         1%        64%
Kameron Mickolio          11%        50%        73%         0%        55%
Jensen Lewis               8%        45%        26%         1%        69%
Mike DeMark                7%        37%        21%         0%        60%
Sam Demel                  7%        43%         8%         0%        68%
Joe Saunders               1%        29%         2%         3%        25%
Tyler Skaggs               2%        31%        13%         0%        29%
Mike Zagurski              5%        33%        55%         0%        56%
Zach Duke                  1%        17%         0%        25%        41%
Jason Lane                32%        54%        14%        58%        81%
Wade Miley                 0%        11%         1%         0%        67%
Zach Kroenke               1%        14%         0%         0%        64%
Patrick Corbin             0%        10%         1%         2%        33%
Brett Lorin                0%        13%         0%         6%        23%
Barry Enright              0%         7%         0%         3%         8%
Chris Jakubauskas          2%        18%         2%         5%        40%
Yonata Ortega              2%        17%        25%         0%        67%
Kevin Mulvey               0%         8%         0%         0%        55%
Joe Martinez               1%        13%         0%         8%        54%
Wes Roemer                 0%         2%         0%         0%        18%
Gaby Hernandez             0%         0%         0%         0%         3%
s
All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
Indians
Nationals
Blue Jays
Rays
Royals
Reds
Brewers
Orioles
Rockies
Braves
Astros
Cardinals
Dodgers
Twins
Giants
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 02, 2012 at 02:28 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. jda Posted: February 02, 2012 at 03:33 PM (#4052161)
Only slightly relevant, more a ZiPS question than a D-Backs one:

Usually I can guess when a reliever is going to end up with 1 or 2 GS in his ZiPS projection. There were minor league rehab games that the player started, for example. Every once in a while though I see a real head-scratcher such as J.J. Putz. Dan, how does your projection system decide that a given player gets that Game Started?
   2. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: February 02, 2012 at 03:40 PM (#4052168)
It’s not that marginal relievers with limited service time like David Hernandez or Joe Paterson are inherently better relievers than a number of major league veterans, but that when a Hernandez hits his upside, you get a solid reliever for years, while if you sign some fringey J.C. Romero veteran-type, his upside just results in him signing an overpaid deal elsewhere in a year.


Serious question: given how small the sample size is for relievers, how do you tell whether one of these guys has hit his upside or merely gotten lucky for a season?

EDIT: Where by "you" I mean "ZiPS" mostly.
   3. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 02, 2012 at 03:41 PM (#4052171)
In this case, it's a rehab assignment that my translation thingamabob didn't pick up - the division isn't available neatly. The innings are right, but the GS is wrong.
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 02, 2012 at 03:43 PM (#4052172)
Serious question: given how small the sample size is for relievers, how do you tell whether one of these guys has hit his upside or merely gotten lucky for a season?

Things like K rate and BB rate changes stabilize at pretty low batters faced. When those drastically change, even in a small sample, the odds of that change remaining are much better.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: February 02, 2012 at 06:04 PM (#4052267)
I love the Upton comps just because they showcase the vagaries of baseball.

Tartabull -- pretty brilliant then off a cliff. I don't remember if it was injury or not. (Also apparently a terrible fielder)

Davis -- consistently good not great for a very long time (10,000 PA) with a late-career mini-peak as a DH.

Robinson -- HoFer who never really declined as a batter.
   6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 02, 2012 at 06:20 PM (#4052276)
I'm guessing that's Jason Lane the former outfielder? He has converted to pitching?
   7. Der-K thinks the Essex Green were a good band. Posted: February 02, 2012 at 06:33 PM (#4052281)
Yup.
   8. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: February 02, 2012 at 06:43 PM (#4052296)
I love the Upton comps just because they showcase the vagaries of baseball.

I love them because they fuel my ZiPS IS RACIST! conspiracy theory.
   9. Tuque Posted: February 02, 2012 at 07:05 PM (#4052305)
Some weird comps for Hudson.
   10. staring out the window and waiting for fenderbelly Posted: February 02, 2012 at 08:27 PM (#4052347)

I thought "Huh, I didn't know that Saito is 42." Then I noticed that his #2 comp is Satchel Paige!

Goldschmidt looked like a beast the couple of times that I saw him play last year. Is there any knock on him besides the high SO/low BA?
   11. 1k5v3L Posted: February 02, 2012 at 11:41 PM (#4052461)
In all fairness to Kevin Towers, Ryan Robers got a chance to play because Geoff Blum was injured AND Melvin Mora sucked. Hard to predict both these happening... But somehow Kevin Towers imagined it on a dark winter day last year. Then again, much as I didn't understand the Bloomquist signing, he helped when Drew got injured. And I think the reason both Bloomquist and McDonald were signed for two years is that nobody knows if Drew will be healthy this year and nobody knows if Chris Owings will be anywhere close to the majors in 2013. In the end, if Drew is healthy, things will work out at the back end of the bench.

By the way, whe is the Trevor Bauer projection?
   12. Jim Wisinski Posted: February 03, 2012 at 12:13 AM (#4052481)
Wow, Wes Bankston sighting (as a comp). Been years since I thought about him, I remember the good old days of hoping he'd be the Rays 1B of the future.

The Chris Petersen who doesn't coach Boise State seems to be on a lot of comp lists. I guess he's just a great generic crappy middle infielder.
   13. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 03, 2012 at 12:44 AM (#4052492)
The Chris Petersen who doesn't coach Boise State seems to be on a lot of comp lists. I guess he's just a great generic crappy middle infielder.

Just for fun, here are the players that made the most appearances in the top 3 comps for the 1700ish (around 850 each for batters and pitchers) projections I've run so far.

HITTERS
Chad Moeller: 13
Charlie Greene: 10
George Mitterwald: 8
Brook Jacoby: 7
Chris Petersen: 7
George Hinshaw: 7
Jason Wood: 7
Mark Belanger: 7
Daryle Ward: 6
Frank Charles: 6
Jeff Manto: 6
Jorge Velandia: 6
Pablo Martinez: 6
Paul Sorrento: 6
Pete Suder: 6
Royce Clayton: 6

PITCHERS
Armando Almanza: 10
Kevin Tolar: 10
Pat Ahearne: 10
Scott Downs: 9
Buddy Groom: 8
Vic Darensbourg: 8
Bob Welch: 7
Brian Bruney: 7
Heathcliff Slocumb: 7
Mark Pisciotta: 7
Marshall Bridges: 7
Ryan Buckvich: 7
Ryan Henderson: 7
Terry Leach: 7
   14. Davo Dozier Posted: February 03, 2012 at 04:39 AM (#4052591)
Looking at Paul Goldschmidt's comps....I'm thinking they may want to go year-to-year with him.
   15. MM1f Posted: February 03, 2012 at 05:20 AM (#4052592)
PITCHERS
Armando Almanza: 10
Kevin Tolar: 10
Pat Ahearne: 10
Scott Downs: 9
Buddy Groom: 8
Vic Darensbourg: 8


5 out of the 6 most common pitchers are lefty relievers, most of whom had decent stretches of usefulness.
Does this mean something?

EDIT: And the top 3 most common position players were all backup catchers. I guess with LOOGYs and backup catchers so heavily represented it has something to do with occupations that a middling talent can make a decent career in?
   16. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 03, 2012 at 10:50 AM (#4052705)
5 out of the 6 most common pitchers are lefty relievers, most of whom had decent stretches of usefulness.
Does this mean something?


There are fewer LOOGYs (the role hasn't been around that long in the big picture and there are still less prevalent in the minors than the majors), so less choice in type, too.
   17. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 03, 2012 at 11:05 AM (#4052720)
Having John McDonald, Geoff Blum, and Willie Bloomquist all signed to major league contracts is the equivalent of designing a jumbo jet to have one engine and no mechanical backups to the landing gear but making sure there are 3 backup fridges in the galley to hold cans of soda.


In an emergency, Bloomquist will fill in at engine and flap his arms really hard.
   18. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 03, 2012 at 11:35 AM (#4052753)
As young as Borchering is, I can't decide whether that's a good projection or a bad one.
   19. Ziggy Posted: February 03, 2012 at 03:43 PM (#4053019)
So who has the better future: Paul Goldschmidt or Freddie Freeman?
   20. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 03, 2012 at 03:49 PM (#4053023)
ZiPS says Freeman.
   21. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: February 03, 2012 at 03:55 PM (#4053031)
I drafted Pena and Phelps in the DMB rookie draft, and took Goldschmidt this year. I'll never learn.

   22. shoewizard Posted: February 03, 2012 at 10:08 PM (#4053249)
ZiPS says Freeman.


Can't argue that based on age for level and the rookie year Freeman just had. But if Goldschmidt can get his K rate down to the low 20's on a consistent basis, then all bets are off. I think he has more raw power. Of course thats a big if on the K rate.

   23. shoewizard Posted: February 03, 2012 at 10:30 PM (#4053261)
Dan

When I go to the archive to look up the 2010 ZiPS projections, the page that comes up just shows the discussion, not the projections.

Is that a glitch or by design ?
   24. VK_Ratliff Posted: February 04, 2012 at 02:43 PM (#4053474)
Way back when, I saved a copy of the <a >2010 ZiPS spreadsheet.</a>
   25. VK_Ratliff Posted: February 04, 2012 at 02:47 PM (#4053476)
Way back when, I saved a copy of the 2010 ZiPS spreadsheet.
   26. VK_Ratliff Posted: February 04, 2012 at 02:53 PM (#4053480)
Way back when, I saved a copy of the 2010 zips spreadsheet
   27. VK_Ratliff Posted: February 04, 2012 at 02:55 PM (#4053481)
...
   28. shoewizard Posted: February 04, 2012 at 08:37 PM (#4053619)
Thanks. Actually I made a typo, and also what I was looking for is not in that spreadsheet. I wanted to see what Upton's career projection was going into 2011, and see if his 2011 numbers made his career projection better or worse.

   29. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 06, 2012 at 06:56 PM (#4054999)
Pretty much the same, though it's gotten a bit more solid (less downside, so more playing time, counting numbers)
   30. KT's Pot Arb Posted: February 13, 2012 at 04:08 PM (#4060019)
Wow, Kubel got "Fair" defensive ratings at the corner? How did a guy with terrible career UZR ratings get a "Fair"?
   31. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 14, 2012 at 03:03 AM (#4060397)
Wow, Kubel got "Fair" defensive ratings at the corner? How did a guy with terrible career UZR ratings get a "Fair"?


Kubel does better in the BIS and TZ numbers.

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