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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Thursday, February 02, 2012
2012 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks
The most encouraging thing about Arizona’s season, well, other than the trip to the playoffs, is just how quickly and efficiently they turned over a horrific 2010 bullpen. The favorite quote of Branch Rickey among statheads (myself included) is “Luck is the residue of design.” That kinda describes how the Diamondback bullpen worked so quickly - in every situation, both in performance and dollars, Arizona acquired relievers that would be a great help to the team in the upside and harmless on the downside. It’s not that marginal relievers with limited service time like David Hernandez or Joe Paterson are inherently better relievers than a number of major league veterans, but that when a Hernandez hits his upside, you get a solid reliever for years, while if you sign some fringey J.C. Romero veteran-type, his upside just results in him signing an overpaid deal elsewhere in a year.
The best thing the Diamondbacks could do at this point is to apply this thinking to their role players on offense. Arizona got a lot of Ryan Roberts, but they only got that out of Ryan Roberts because a terrible, older, more expensive option that the team preferred, Geoff Blum, was injured. The team’s still doubling-down on the strategy that almost resulted in Roberts never getting playing time and has this strange proclivity to acquire excess utility infielders. Having John McDonald, Geoff Blum, and Willie Bloomquist all signed to major league contracts is the equivalent of designing a jumbo jet to have one engine and no mechanical backups to the landing gear but making sure there are 3 backup fridges in the galley to hold cans of soda. Thanks to the team’s policy of making a bench a charity for unemployed baseball players in their 30s, they were very lucky that Drew was the only major injury in the lineup.
Despite this problem, there are no dominating teams in the NL West and Arizona should be right there at the end of the season. ZiPS absolutely loves their pitching staff. ZiPS has always been super positive about Daniel Hudson and he hasn’t yet done anything to dislodge ZiPS from its computer-crush.
Next Up: Miami Marlins
Oracle on Twitter
Szymborski on ESPN
Batting Projections
Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
Justin Upton R RF 24 .283 .366 .505 156 580 94 164 35 5 28 89 68 146 22 9 128
Jason Kubel L RF 30 .277 .342 .487 128 458 57 127 27 3 21 81 45 95 1 1 117
Paul Goldschmidt R 1B 24 .250 .340 .472 156 579 77 145 32 3 30 92 75 193 8 2 113
Miguel Montero L C 28 .265 .336 .438 121 411 51 109 27 1 14 60 40 86 1 1 103
Gerardo Parra L LF 25 .279 .336 .411 155 506 59 141 25 9 8 52 42 96 12 4 97
Chris Young R CF 28 .242 .332 .435 153 550 82 133 34 3 22 71 74 149 19 7 102
Stephen Drew L SS 29 .267 .330 .435 123 469 65 125 28 9 11 60 44 90 6 4 101
Lyle Overbay L 1B 35 .251 .333 .420 123 414 52 104 27 2 13 55 50 92 1 1 99
Aaron Hill R 2B 30 .265 .318 .424 134 528 68 140 29 2 17 71 36 72 11 4 95
Ryan Roberts R 3B 31 .250 .333 .407 132 432 63 108 23 3 13 52 53 92 14 7 95
David Winfree R LF 26 .258 .303 .427 103 384 41 99 22 2 13 58 22 80 4 2 91
Cole Gillespie R RF 28 .241 .320 .387 136 478 55 115 22 9 10 59 52 115 13 4 87
A.J. Pollock R CF 24 .263 .303 .375 126 506 68 133 29 5 6 47 29 96 21 6 79
Ryan Wheeler L 3B 23 .262 .308 .395 156 608 59 159 32 2 15 79 38 145 3 4 85
Andy Tracy L 1B 38 .221 .305 .403 96 335 35 74 18 2 13 43 40 104 2 0 86
Adam Eaton L RF 23 .253 .335 .360 145 581 69 147 24 7 8 63 52 108 30 16 85
Geoff Blum B 3B 39 .262 .316 .369 59 141 14 37 7 1 2 17 10 18 0 0 81
Cody Ransom R SS 36 .225 .289 .405 108 378 43 85 22 2 14 52 32 113 6 2 82
Xavier Nady R 1B 33 .253 .301 .371 81 229 26 58 12 0 5 29 13 52 1 0 77
Henry Blanco R C 40 .243 .307 .388 39 103 10 25 4 1 3 10 10 22 0 1 83
Matthew Davidson R 1B 21 .234 .296 .389 156 606 71 142 36 2 18 87 46 191 0 2 80
Willie Bloomquist R SS 34 .258 .305 .348 95 302 39 78 9 3 4 22 19 46 15 7 73
Marc Krauss L RF 24 .228 .296 .382 152 566 67 129 26 5 17 64 54 185 2 3 78
Mark Hallberg R 2B 26 .258 .311 .347 140 484 49 125 28 3 3 55 36 50 5 4 75
Bobby Borchering B 1B 21 .231 .286 .378 156 619 58 143 31 3 18 74 45 201 3 1 75
Konrad Schmidt R C 27 .249 .291 .370 113 433 36 108 25 3 7 44 20 97 2 3 74
Michael Restovich R LF 33 .237 .293 .367 85 283 32 67 15 2 6 26 22 80 0 1 74
Jason Lane R LF 35 .228 .289 .370 82 311 38 71 19 2 7 33 26 64 2 2 74
Rusty Ryal R LF 28 .246 .295 .367 94 256 28 63 12 2 5 23 12 73 1 3 79
John McDonald R 3B 37 .251 .283 .374 71 187 21 47 10 2 3 21 8 23 2 3 73
Angel Berroa R SS 32 .246 .282 .353 52 167 17 41 10 1 2 17 7 31 2 1 68
Ollie Linton L LF 26 .245 .323 .309 125 437 50 107 12 5 2 32 42 125 16 11 69
Craig Tatum R C 29 .228 .282 .312 66 202 18 46 9 1 2 23 15 46 1 1 58
Tommy Manzella R SS 29 .220 .269 .312 128 446 48 98 18 4 5 44 29 127 6 4 54
Ryan Budde R C 32 .196 .260 .298 71 235 23 46 10 1 4 22 19 83 1 1 48
Defensive Projections
Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF
Justin Upton VG/154
Jason Kubel FR/92 FR/93
Paul Goldschmidt FR/96
Miguel Montero VG
Gerardo Parra EX/88 AV/153 VG/85
Chris Young VG/87
Stephen Drew AV/71
Lyle Overbay AV/75
Aaron Hill AV/75
Ryan Roberts AV/118 AV/86 PO/108 AV/119
David Winfree FR/99 FR/101 AV/160
Cole Gillespie VG/96 PO/78 AV/86
A.J. Pollock FR/55 AV/110
Ryan Wheeler FR/119 PO/108 FR/114
Andy Tracy AV/118 PO/112
Adam Eaton AV/96 FR/117 AV/96
Geoff Blum AV/100 FR/107 AV/47 PO/108
Cody Ransom FR/111 FR/99 FR/148 FR/106 AV/127
Xavier Nady AV/91 AV/100 FR/108
Henry Blanco EX
Matthew Davidson AV/106 FR/131
Willie Bloomquist VG/110 AV/111 VG/109 FR/98 FR/85 FR/94
Marc Krauss FR/120 PO/163 FR/131
Mark Hallberg AV/118 AV/51 AV/83 FR/93
Bobby Borchering FR/137 PO/176 FR/141
Konrad Schmidt AV FR/87
Michael Restovich AV/105 FR/135 FR/126
Jason Lane FR/101 FR/110 FR/92
Rusty Ryal AV/157 FR/101 FR/128 FR/119 AV/132
John McDonald VG/93 AV/100 VG/85 AV/112
Angel Berroa AV/99 FR/110 PO/103 FR/115
Ollie Linton AV/78 FR/82 AV/96
Craig Tatum VG
Tommy Manzella VG/94 AV/84
Ryan Budde AV AV/118 PO/118 AV/118
Pitching Projections - Starters
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Ian Kennedy R 27 3.42 11 7 26 26 163.3 146 62 17 49 143 123
Daniel Hudson R 25 3.42 16 10 32 31 192.0 178 73 17 52 163 123
Trevor Cahill R 24 3.90 14 11 32 32 200.7 193 87 21 68 143 108
Josh Collmenter R 26 4.15 10 9 28 25 143.0 142 66 16 49 100 101
Trevor Bauer R 21 4.18 9 8 24 24 140.0 128 65 19 64 143 101
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96
Joe Saunders L 31 4.57 11 12 29 29 181.3 193 92 25 60 103 92
Tyler Skaggs L 20 4.58 7 8 26 24 127.7 129 65 17 55 101 92
Zach Duke L 29 4.88 7 9 25 19 127.3 148 69 16 34 67 86
Wade Miley L 25 4.94 7 9 27 26 142.0 162 78 15 63 90 85
Zach Kroenke L 28 4.99 5 6 31 13 101.0 117 56 10 42 57 84
Patrick Corbin L 22 5.00 7 9 26 26 140.3 159 78 19 47 97 84
Brett Lorin R 25 5.06 5 6 21 17 90.7 101 51 14 30 57 83
Barry Enright R 26 5.09 7 10 26 26 150.3 168 85 26 47 90 83
Kevin Mulvey R 27 5.17 6 8 25 23 130.7 152 75 15 52 74 81
Joe Martinez R 29 5.22 5 7 27 15 100.0 123 58 11 32 57 80
Wes Roemer R 25 5.52 6 9 25 24 137.0 164 84 20 52 82 76
Gaby Hernandez R 26 6.30 6 12 26 24 131.3 159 92 26 63 78 67
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Takashi Saito R 42 3.00 3 2 37 0 33.0 28 11 3 10 33 140
J.J. Putz R 35 3.13 4 2 50 0 46.0 38 16 4 14 49 134
David Hernandez R 27 3.44 4 3 68 0 65.3 54 25 6 30 72 122
Brad Ziegler R 32 3.47 4 2 63 0 59.7 57 23 4 22 46 121
Craig Breslow L 31 3.73 4 3 68 0 62.7 57 26 7 23 55 113
Joe Paterson L 26 3.86 4 3 60 0 51.3 49 22 4 24 42 109
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Jonathan AlbaladejR 29 4.04 3 3 45 0 49.0 47 22 6 19 41 104
Bryan Shaw R 24 4.21 3 3 63 0 66.3 66 31 7 27 49 100
Kameron Mickolio R 28 4.29 4 4 47 0 56.7 55 27 6 26 56 98
Jensen Lewis R 28 4.35 3 3 41 0 51.7 52 25 6 23 43 96
Mike DeMark R 29 4.53 2 2 43 0 45.7 46 23 5 23 37 93
Sam Demel R 26 4.56 3 3 53 0 51.3 53 26 6 24 38 92
Mike Zagurski L 29 4.70 2 3 52 0 53.7 52 28 6 32 50 89
Jason Lane L 35 4.91 0 0 4 0 7.3 8 4 1 2 4 86
Chris Jakubauskas R 33 5.09 3 4 27 8 70.7 79 40 10 26 44 82
Yonata Ortega R 25 5.15 2 3 47 0 50.7 53 29 6 33 42 82
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+
Justin Upton .269 .354 .471 2507 9255 1420 2489 533 80 393 1288 1105 2271 274 116
Stephen Drew .263 .322 .424 1769 6786 885 1785 389 117 157 807 590 1166 71 94
Chris Young .240 .322 .422 2006 7292 1034 1747 447 39 269 898 872 1743 220 94
Aaron Hill .263 .315 .411 1672 6474 823 1702 357 22 186 804 439 858 103 91
Jason Kubel .269 .331 .454 1551 5443 658 1463 304 29 216 889 507 1059 15 107
Miguel Montero .263 .329 .425 1653 5532 658 1454 350 14 173 769 503 1019 12 98
Gerardo Parra .274 .331 .400 1582 5141 588 1410 254 78 78 532 419 966 95 93
Lyle Overbay .264 .346 .429 1560 5304 683 1400 370 14 160 704 665 1130 18 104
Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
Trevor Cahill 222 166 0 3.82 487 487 3052 2849 1296 348 1054 2236 109
Daniel Hudson 207 124 0 3.42 418 405 2555 2349 970 239 685 2222 122
Ian Kennedy 137 90 0 3.69 343 339 2121 1928 869 241 676 1835 113
Joe Saunders 127 121 0 4.49 328 326 2011 2157 1003 277 670 1117 95
Zach Duke 91 126 8 4.73 329 284 1804 2158 948 211 484 945 89
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
Justin Upton RF 45% 32% 12% 7% 3% Danny Tartabull Chili Davis Frank Robinson
Jason Kubel RF 20% 32% 20% 16% 11% Paul Sorrento Geoff Jenkins Brian Daubach
Paul Goldschmidt 1B 11% 26% 22% 26% 15% Nick Esasky Josh Phelps Carlos Pena
Miguel Montero C 26% 36% 21% 13% 4% Terry Kennedy Eddie Taubensee Dave Nilsson
Gerardo Parra LF 3% 10% 16% 27% 44% David DeJesus Dave Martinez David Dellucci
Chris Young CF 18% 23% 31% 20% 8% Jon Nunnally Jonny Gomes Ernie Young
Stephen Drew SS 25% 26% 27% 16% 6% Greg Gagne Mickey Morandini Mark Teahen
Lyle Overbay 1B 2% 8% 12% 32% 45% Ron Santo Kevin Barker Lee Stevens
Aaron Hill 2B 17% 16% 19% 24% 23% Webster Garrison Bret Boone Steve Sisco
Ryan Roberts 3B 5% 14% 21% 28% 33% Jeff Blauser Kelly Heath Jed Hansen
David Winfree LF 1% 5% 11% 24% 59% Wes Bankston Ron Coomer Mark Blaser
Cole Gillespie RF 1% 5% 8% 19% 67% Brad Tyler Kenny Kelly Bob Brower
A.J. Pollock CF 1% 4% 16% 32% 46% Dan Gladden Xavier Paul Chris James
Ryan Wheeler 3B 2% 4% 8% 19% 66% Brook Jacoby Scott Cooper George Hinshaw
Andy Tracy 1B 2% 6% 6% 18% 67% Bob Brenly Lee Stevens Chris Richard
Adam Eaton RF 2% 4% 6% 12% 77% Jon Saffer Shin-Soo Choo Curt Ford
Geoff Blum 3B 1% 3% 7% 15% 74% Mark Loretta Jim Davenport Joe Stripp
Cody Ransom SS 8% 11% 20% 27% 33% Shane Halter Rico Rossy Mike Bordick
Xavier Nady 1B 0% 0% 1% 9% 89% Wes Helms Dusty Wathan Darrell Whitmore
Henry Blanco C 5% 13% 14% 25% 43% Jim Sundberg Jim Hegan Rick Cerone
Matthew Davidson 1B 0% 1% 3% 12% 83% Brett Harper Nate Rolison Richie Sexson
Willie Bloomquist SS 3% 5% 12% 22% 58% Aaron Holbert Jose Vizcaino Rey Sanchez
Marc Krauss RF 0% 1% 3% 7% 89% Brent Clevlen Chito Martinez George Canale
Mark Hallberg 2B 1% 2% 4% 13% 80% Keoni DeRenne Craig Wilson Bucky Dent
Bobby Borchering 1B 0% 1% 2% 8% 90% Nelson Simmons Corey Myers John Hanley
Konrad Schmidt C 1% 3% 7% 23% 67% Salomon Manriquez Mike Rabelo Dan Wilson
Michael Restovich LF 0% 0% 1% 3% 96% Darrell Whitmore Orsino Hill Dann Howitt
Jason Lane LF 0% 1% 1% 4% 94% Felipe Zayas Chad Mottola Alan Cockrell
Rusty Ryal LF 0% 0% 1% 3% 96% Bob Detherage Nick Alvarez Jeremy Ware
John McDonald 3B 2% 1% 2% 5% 89% Juan Castro Pete Suder Jeff Branson
Angel Berroa SS 1% 2% 7% 16% 74% Kevin Baez Gary Green Juan Castro
Ollie Linton LF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Jeff Stone Dave Brundage Marvin Benard
Craig Tatum C 0% 0% 1% 4% 95% Chris Tremie Joe Hietpas Bill Dobrolsky
Tommy Manzella SS 0% 0% 1% 4% 94% Chris Petersen Frank Kremblas Erick Monzon
Ryan Budde C 0% 0% 1% 3% 96% Jayhawk Owens Chad Moeller Charlie Greene
Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3
Takashi Saito RP 66% 27% 7% Larry Andersen Satchel Paige Doug Jones
J.J. Putz RP 69% 26% 5% Todd Worrell Danny Cox Billy Taylor
Ian Kennedy SP 76% 19% 5% Tommy Greene Curt Schilling Kevin Millwood
Daniel Hudson SP 76% 19% 5% John Thomson Frank Pastore Roy Halladay
David Hernandez RP 51% 42% 7% Bryan Harvey Ryne Duren Jim Kern
Brad Ziegler RP 47% 44% 9% Danny Kolb Dwight Bernard Warren Brusstar
Craig Breslow RP 34% 49% 17% Alan Embree Dan Plesac Gary Wayne
Joe Paterson RP 29% 48% 23% Grant Jackson Randy Choate Chris Marchok
Trevor Cahill SP 47% 48% 5% Andy Hawkins Jon Garland Jay Tibbs
Jonathan AlbaladejRP 21% 49% 30% Matt Karchner Tim Layana Rocky Cherry
Josh Collmenter SP 29% 57% 14% T.J. Nall Kevin Olsen Greg Brummett
Trevor Bauer SP ————————- Jason Bere Eric Gagne John Smoltz
Bryan Shaw RP 12% 51% 36% Chris George Josh Kinney Jose Ascanio
Kameron Mickolio RP 15% 43% 42% Karl Best Greg Aquino Jorge Vasquez
Jensen Lewis RP 11% 42% 47% Gerry Hannahs David Holdridge Gene Harris
Mike DeMark RP 10% 35% 55% Mike Cook Doug Robertson Franklyn German
Sam Demel RP 11% 40% 49% Brandon Kolb Miguel Saladin Scott Gay
Joe Saunders SP 11% 56% 33% Kirk Rueter Dennis Rasmussen Scott McGregor
Tyler Skaggs SP 12% 50% 38% Scott Downs Sean Maloney Jack Lazorko
Mike Zagurski RP 7% 34% 59% Tim Fortugno Greg McCarthy Kevin Tolar
Zach Duke SP 7% 40% 53% Mark Hendrickson Scott Downs Mike Maroth
Jason Lane RP 32% 22% 46% Morrie Martin Lee Guetterman Eric Gunderson
Wade Miley SP 3% 39% 58% Alex Graman Chris George Jake Chapman
Zach Kroenke SP 1% 19% 79% Jeff Musselman Rich Rundles Dave Otto
Patrick Corbin SP 3% 35% 62% Glendon Rusch Derrin Ebert John Rheinecker
Brett Lorin SP 4% 36% 60% Travis Thompson Jack Hardy Jason Stephens
Barry Enright SP 1% 30% 69% Jerry Kutzler Steve Ellsworth Travis Harper
Chris Jakubauskas RP 3% 20% 78% Danny Graves Sam Arrington Jeff Harris
Yonata Ortega RP 2% 21% 77% Pete Sikaras Jeff Smith Calvin Jones
Kevin Mulvey SP 2% 28% 70% Marcus Jones John Snyder Jake Joseph
Joe Martinez SP 4% 32% 64% Tim Harikkala Dave Borkowski Jack Lamabe
Wes Roemer SP 0% 13% 86% David Pauley Rick Bauer Kevin Olsen
Gaby Hernandez SP 0% 2% 98% Vance Cozier Giovanni Carrara Joe Ganote
Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB
Justin Upton 22% 34% 52% 16% 12% 46% 24% 18%
Jason Kubel 19% 12% 38% 1% 2% 9% 10% 0%
Paul Goldschmidt 2% 10% 25% 7% 3% 55% 7% 1%
Miguel Montero 10% 9% 9% 1% 0% 1% 2% 0%
Gerardo Parra 18% 6% 2% 0% 37% 1% 1% 1%
Chris Young 0% 4% 5% 9% 2% 11% 1% 9%
Stephen Drew 9% 5% 7% 1% 37% 1% 2% 0%
Lyle Overbay 3% 8% 4% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0%
Aaron Hill 8% 2% 5% 2% 1% 3% 0% 1%
Ryan Roberts 3% 7% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 4%
David Winfree 4% 0% 4% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Cole Gillespie 1% 2% 2% 0% 43% 0% 1% 1%
A.J. Pollock 6% 0% 0% 2% 7% 0% 0% 12%
Ryan Wheeler 5% 1% 4% 7% 2% 4% 1% 0%
Andy Tracy 1% 3% 6% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0%
Adam Eaton 3% 6% 1% 1% 22% 1% 1% 45%
Geoff Blum 17% 9% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cody Ransom 1% 0% 5% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0%
Xavier Nady 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Henry Blanco 11% 9% 5% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Matthew Davidson 0% 0% 2% 20% 1% 8% 0% 0%
Willie Bloomquist 9% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 5%
Marc Krauss 0% 0% 0% 1% 10% 3% 0% 0%
Mark Hallberg 4% 1% 0% 2% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Bobby Borchering 0% 0% 1% 8% 2% 7% 0% 0%
Konrad Schmidt 2% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Michael Restovich 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jason Lane 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rusty Ryal 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
John McDonald 10% 1% 4% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0%
Angel Berroa 6% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Ollie Linton 1% 2% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 1%
Craig Tatum 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Tommy Manzella 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Ryan Budde 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1
Takashi Saito 55% 89% 74% 25% 81%
J.J. Putz 61% 92% 87% 21% 77%
Ian Kennedy 35% 90% 43% 6% 67%
Daniel Hudson 40% 91% 30% 19% 85%
David Hernandez 43% 87% 93% 0% 75%
Brad Ziegler 39% 88% 13% 3% 96%
Craig Breslow 27% 78% 40% 3% 66%
Joe Paterson 22% 71% 21% 0% 88%
Trevor Cahill 11% 76% 2% 1% 62%
Jonathan Albaladej 15% 62% 25% 4% 47%
Josh Collmenter 5% 59% 2% 1% 58%
Bryan Shaw 9% 57% 7% 1% 64%
Kameron Mickolio 11% 50% 73% 0% 55%
Jensen Lewis 8% 45% 26% 1% 69%
Mike DeMark 7% 37% 21% 0% 60%
Sam Demel 7% 43% 8% 0% 68%
Joe Saunders 1% 29% 2% 3% 25%
Tyler Skaggs 2% 31% 13% 0% 29%
Mike Zagurski 5% 33% 55% 0% 56%
Zach Duke 1% 17% 0% 25% 41%
Jason Lane 32% 54% 14% 58% 81%
Wade Miley 0% 11% 1% 0% 67%
Zach Kroenke 1% 14% 0% 0% 64%
Patrick Corbin 0% 10% 1% 2% 33%
Brett Lorin 0% 13% 0% 6% 23%
Barry Enright 0% 7% 0% 3% 8%
Chris Jakubauskas 2% 18% 2% 5% 40%
Yonata Ortega 2% 17% 25% 0% 67%
Kevin Mulvey 0% 8% 0% 0% 55%
Joe Martinez 1% 13% 0% 8% 54%
Wes Roemer 0% 2% 0% 0% 18%
Gaby Hernandez 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%
s
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
Indians
Nationals
Blue Jays
Rays
Royals
Reds
Brewers
Orioles
Rockies
Braves
Astros
Cardinals
Dodgers
Twins
Giants
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 02, 2012 at 02:28 PM | 31 comment(s)
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1. jda Posted: February 02, 2012 at 03:33 PM (#4052161)Usually I can guess when a reliever is going to end up with 1 or 2 GS in his ZiPS projection. There were minor league rehab games that the player started, for example. Every once in a while though I see a real head-scratcher such as J.J. Putz. Dan, how does your projection system decide that a given player gets that Game Started?
Serious question: given how small the sample size is for relievers, how do you tell whether one of these guys has hit his upside or merely gotten lucky for a season?
EDIT: Where by "you" I mean "ZiPS" mostly.
Things like K rate and BB rate changes stabilize at pretty low batters faced. When those drastically change, even in a small sample, the odds of that change remaining are much better.
Tartabull -- pretty brilliant then off a cliff. I don't remember if it was injury or not. (Also apparently a terrible fielder)
Davis -- consistently good not great for a very long time (10,000 PA) with a late-career mini-peak as a DH.
Robinson -- HoFer who never really declined as a batter.
I love them because they fuel my ZiPS IS RACIST! conspiracy theory.
I thought "Huh, I didn't know that Saito is 42." Then I noticed that his #2 comp is Satchel Paige!
Goldschmidt looked like a beast the couple of times that I saw him play last year. Is there any knock on him besides the high SO/low BA?
By the way, whe is the Trevor Bauer projection?
The Chris Petersen who doesn't coach Boise State seems to be on a lot of comp lists. I guess he's just a great generic crappy middle infielder.
Just for fun, here are the players that made the most appearances in the top 3 comps for the 1700ish (around 850 each for batters and pitchers) projections I've run so far.
HITTERS
Chad Moeller: 13
Charlie Greene: 10
George Mitterwald: 8
Brook Jacoby: 7
Chris Petersen: 7
George Hinshaw: 7
Jason Wood: 7
Mark Belanger: 7
Daryle Ward: 6
Frank Charles: 6
Jeff Manto: 6
Jorge Velandia: 6
Pablo Martinez: 6
Paul Sorrento: 6
Pete Suder: 6
Royce Clayton: 6
PITCHERS
Armando Almanza: 10
Kevin Tolar: 10
Pat Ahearne: 10
Scott Downs: 9
Buddy Groom: 8
Vic Darensbourg: 8
Bob Welch: 7
Brian Bruney: 7
Heathcliff Slocumb: 7
Mark Pisciotta: 7
Marshall Bridges: 7
Ryan Buckvich: 7
Ryan Henderson: 7
Terry Leach: 7
5 out of the 6 most common pitchers are lefty relievers, most of whom had decent stretches of usefulness.
Does this mean something?
EDIT: And the top 3 most common position players were all backup catchers. I guess with LOOGYs and backup catchers so heavily represented it has something to do with occupations that a middling talent can make a decent career in?
Does this mean something?
There are fewer LOOGYs (the role hasn't been around that long in the big picture and there are still less prevalent in the minors than the majors), so less choice in type, too.
In an emergency, Bloomquist will fill in at engine and flap his arms really hard.
Can't argue that based on age for level and the rookie year Freeman just had. But if Goldschmidt can get his K rate down to the low 20's on a consistent basis, then all bets are off. I think he has more raw power. Of course thats a big if on the K rate.
When I go to the archive to look up the 2010 ZiPS projections, the page that comes up just shows the discussion, not the projections.
Is that a glitch or by design ?
Kubel does better in the BIS and TZ numbers.
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