Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, January 08, 2012

2012 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati Reds

The Reds had a reasonable argument at being competitive in the NL Central last season (ZiPS had them tied with Brewers, just ahead of Cardinals), but the starting pitching pretty much abandoned the team, with the exception of Johnny Cueto. The addition of Mat Latos obviously improves the rotation, but the team has a bit less depth now and there are less emergency options in the rotation with Travis Wood in Chicago (ZiPS still believes in him enough to give him a ERA+ of 100 there) and Matt Maloney on the Twins (85 ERA+, still enough to be in the top 5 projected starters for Reds). Yonder Alonso is a loss, but they did address the correct need and though he hit well in his 2011 cup of coffee, Alonso's minor league performances suggest that he's a bit overhyped. Among hitters, the Reds actually have a pretty decent field of second-tier prospects.

While the team could use an extra impact bat (despite finishing 2nd in the league in runs scored, they only had a 98 OPS+), but at this point, they probably need to sign a few low-risk, upside pitcher signings, simply to bolster the organizational lack at the upper levels. The very few minor league free agents they've signed (Sean Gallagher, Luis Atilano, Clayton Tanner) really shouldn't pitch in the majors - Gallagher had promise, but he hasn't pitched well at all in a long time. If the Reds aren't going to spend a lot of money and go after Edwin Jackson or Roy Oswalt, they really need to be in on guys like Paul Maholm or Jeff Francis.

Next Up: Kansas City Royals

Oracle on Twitter
Szymborski on ESPN


Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Joey Votto        L    1B   28   .294 .402 .529 150 544  93 160  34   2  30 102  96 124  11   5  148
Jay Bruce         L    RF   25   .260 .340 .474 152 546  81 142  25   4  28  90  65 148   8   6  116
Brandon Phillips  R    2B   31   .279 .331 .436 150 603  87 168  33   4  18  80  42  83  17  10  104
Chris Heisey      R    LF   27   .258 .317 .446 134 395  59 102  19   2  17  57  29  94  10   2  102
Juan Francisco    L    3B   25   .267 .297 .480 143 529  65 141  33   4  24  85  21 141   2   1  104
Scott Rolen       R    3B   37   .260 .315 .441  84 311  38  81  23   3   9  51  22  50   1   1  100
Devin Mesoraco    R    C    24   .248 .322 .432 136 484  57 120  30   4  17  68  48 117   1   2  100
Miguel Cairo      R    3B   38   .265 .328 .403  90 211  27  56   9   1   6  28  16  32   3   2   95
Drew Stubbs       R    CF   27   .240 .317 .388 154 578  87 139  24   5  17  60  61 190  37   9   88
Ryan Hanigan      R    C    31   .267 .358 .355  91 273  28  73   9   0   5  31  35  34   0   0   92
Henry Rodriguez   B    2B   22   .279 .315 .393 156 641  64 179  33   2  12  77  31 108  31  15   89
Todd Frazier      R    3B   26   .242 .307 .423 148 532  70 129  30   3  20  71  44 140  13   6   94
Neftali Soto      R    1B   23   .245 .290 .450 140 542  59 133  24   3  27  80  28 145   0   1   95
Donald Lutz       L    1B   23   .262 .306 .417 149 576  65 151  23   3  20  76  30 170   5   6   92
Daniel Dorn       L    1B   27   .233 .300 .421 121 420  50  98  24   2  17  60  35 135   2   0   91
Zack Cozart       R    SS   26   .253 .304 .398 130 518  76 131  28   4  13  52  34 108  12   3   86
Eric Campbell     R    3B   26   .239 .302 .385 130 468  53 112  24   1  14  61  37  97   3   3   83
Edgar Renteria    R    SS   34   .254 .309 .347  98 331  37  84  14   1   5  38  27  60   4   2   76
Corky Miller      R    C    36   .230 .317 .348  59 178  21  41   9   0   4  21  18  34   0   0   78
Chris Valaika     R    2B   26   .255 .287 .362 142 517  52 132  24   2   9  50  22 102   2   1   73
Denis Phipps      R    CF   26   .242 .287 .374 147 554  64 134  28   6  11  57  34 170  12   8   76
Cody Puckett      R    2B   25   .221 .274 .377 134 506  54 112  30   2  15  64  32 162  13   3   73
Daryl Jones       L    LF   25   .236 .311 .350 120 403  47  95  15   5   7  38  39 115   8   7   77
Didi Gregorius    L    SS   22   .259 .296 .359 127 529  53 137  18   7   7  47  26  88  13  12   75
Brodie Greene     R    2B   24   .247 .290 .341 129 510  48 126  17   5   7  49  29  99  22   9   69
Ryan LaMarre      R    CF   23   .245 .307 .317 122 470  50 115  15   2   5  38  35 122  36  16   68
Paul Janish       R    SS   29   .238 .302 .327 110 315  35  75  17   1   3  28  25  49   3   2   69
Kris Negron       R    SS   26   .222 .279 .336 144 527  66 117  18   6  10  45  32 139  17   4   64
Mike Costanzo     L    3B   28   .206 .271 .341 115 408  43  84  19   3  10  52  36 151   3   2   63

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Joey Votto                    AV/84
Jay Bruce                                                                     AV/70
Brandon Phillips                      VG/61
Chris Heisey                                                 AV/110  AV/118  AV/117
Juan Francisco               AV/117          AV/139          AV/115
Scott Rolen                                   VG/56
Devin Mesoraco           AV
Miguel Cairo                 AV/103   AV/90   AV/93   FR/96
Drew Stubbs                                                  VG/112   AV/77  VG/114
Ryan Hanigan             VG
Henry Rodriguez                      FR/149  AV/110  PO/104
Todd Frazier                  AV/87  FR/119   FR/92          AV/119
Neftali Soto                 AV/101          FR/128
Donald Lutz                  AV/133                          FR/115          FR/115
Daniel Dorn                   AV/94                           AV/95           FR/99
Zack Cozart                                           VG/94
Eric Campbell                FR/108  PO/126  FR/125          FR/123          FR/123
Edgar Renteria                                        FR/94
Corky Miller             VG
Chris Valaika                        FR/106  AV/102   FR/93
Denis Phipps                                                 AV/126  FR/141  AV/126
Cody Puckett                         FR/123  AV/118           AV/85  FR/118   FR/89
Daryl Jones                                                  AV/158  FR/147  AV/117
Didi Gregorius                                       VG/146
Brodie Greene                        FR/101  AV/119  FR/136  AV/120          FR/110
Ryan LaMarre                                                         FR/111   AV/91
Paul Janish                          AV/108   AV/98   VG/72
Kris Negron                          VG/104          AV/120          FR/108  AV/112
Mike Costanzo                AV/123          FR/101

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Mat Latos         R      24     3.38    15    9   32   32   191.7  168   72   19   56  189   119
Johnny Cueto      R      26     3.63    10    7   29   29   173.3  167   70   15   56  123   110
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Homer Bailey      R      26     4.28     9    9   28   27   157.7  161   75   18   49  124    94
Sam LeCure        R      28     4.37     5    5   34   13   107.0  105   52   15   36   88    92
Mike Leake        R      24     4.42     9    9   28   25   159.0  166   78   23   43  113    91
Bronson Arroyo    R      35     4.84     9   11   27   27   169.3  180   91   30   45   96    83
Sean Gallagher    R      26     5.57     4    7   30   13    85.7   94   53   13   48   59    72
Luis Atilano      R      27     5.63     4    6   13   13    64.0   79   40    9   22   29    71
Brandon Hynick    R      27     5.76     5    9   26   20   114.0  137   73   18   46   65    70
Pedro Villarreal  R      24     5.83     6   10   28   24   125.0  151   81   22   42   74    69
Dallas Buck       R      27     5.98     2    4    9    9    40.7   53   27    5   20   18    67
Clayton Tanner    L      24     5.98     6   10   24   23   117.3  140   78   19   57   64    67
Chad Reineke      R      30     6.22     5   10   27   20   114.3  145   79   20   47   61    65
Andrew Brackman   R      26     6.68     4    9   31   18    97.0  115   72   15   80   62    60

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Sean Marshall     L      29     2.74     8    3   76    0    72.3   60   22    5   21   80   147
Bill Bray         L      29     3.46     3    2   64    0    41.7   35   16    4   16   42   116
Nick Masset       R      30     3.60     5    3   74    0    70.0   63   28    6   29   68   111
Francisco Cordero R      37     3.64     5    3   61    0    59.3   55   24    5   24   44   110
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Aroldis Chapman   L      24     3.87     6    5   57    7    76.7   60   33    8   54   98   104
Jose Arredondo    R      28     4.13     5    4   63    0    65.3   57   30    7   38   68    97
Logan Ondrusek    R      27     4.13     4    4   66    0    65.3   63   30    6   27   44    97
Jeremy Horst      L      26     4.21     3    3   47    0    66.3   67   31    6   24   49    95
Carlos Fisher     R      29     4.28     3    3   49    0    61.0   57   29    7   30   54    94
Josh Judy         R      26     4.40     3    3   53    0    59.3   58   29    7   27   55    91
Donnie Joseph     L      24     4.98     2    3   59    0    59.7   60   33    8   34   59    81
Jordan Smith      R      26     5.30     3    4   57    0    56.0   65   33    8   20   29    76
Kanekoa Texeira   R      26     5.93     2    4   39    2    60.7   74   40    9   29   33    68

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Edgar Renteria       .284  .341  .395  2229  8439  1227  2398   446    31   142   951   735  1210   297    92
Joey Votto           .289  .382  .496  2155  7927  1200  2288   474    36   367  1324  1171  1559   132   133
Scott Rolen          .278  .358  .484  2232  8178  1306  2276   576    50   335  1409   932  1506   120   119
Brandon Phillips     .270  .319  .421  1987  7818  1071  2111   394    52   227   990   498  1078   220    95
Jay Bruce            .253  .333  .457  2048  7342  1050  1855   334    46   359  1122   859  1857    84   109
Drew Stubbs          .244  .318  .387  1460  5483   819  1339   226    36   162   565   553  1631   273    88
Chris Heisey         .254  .313  .431  1163  3270   481   829   150    14   134   456   239   731    56    98

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Mat Latos             211  138    0    3.32  460  461     2796 2375 1031  294  826 2860    119
Johnny Cueto          143  116    0    3.80  424  424     2505 2419 1058  258  830 1843    107
Bronson Arroyo        133  135    1    4.44  395  359     2302 2382 1135  338  668 1462     99
Homer Bailey          111  108    0    4.40  344  341     1963 1986  960  242  648 1576     92

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Joey Votto        1B     67%  22%   6%   4%   1%        Todd Helton         Will Clark       Jason Giambi
Jay Bruce         RF     19%  29%  19%  18%  15%    Jesse Barfiefld        Rusty Greer     Jeremy Hermida
Brandon Phillips  2B     27%  18%  19%  20%  16%      Frank Bolling       Johnny Logan        Bob Johnson
Chris Heisey      LF      7%  20%  21%  26%  26%     Brandon Berger       Jay Knoblauh        Jose Malave
Juan Francisco    3B     10%  27%  27%  21%  15%        Jim Presley         Roy Howell      Jeff Hamilton
Scott Rolen       3B      9%  18%  23%  26%  24%      Matt Williams           Art Howe       Jim Morrison
Devin Mesoraco    C      19%  33%  23%  18%   8%  Hector Villanueva    Charles Johnson       Mandy Romero
Miguel Cairo      3B      4%   9%  16%  26%  46%    Tony Graffanino      Jim Davenport       Luis Salazar
Drew Stubbs       CF     10%  15%  28%  27%  20%       Mark Bradley       Chris Latham          Bo Porter
Ryan Hanigan      C       9%  26%  27%  26%  12%       Tom Satriano        Jerry Grote          Joe Azcue
Henry Rodriguez   2B     13%   9%  13%  23%  42%        Robin Yount Bill Knickerbocker      Josh Barfield
Todd Frazier      3B      3%  11%  21%  29%  35%     Sean Rodriguez       Brandon Wood        Wade Rowdon
Neftali Soto      1B      1%   7%  12%  29%  51%    Adell Davenport       Brett Harper         Julian Yan
Donald Lutz       1B      1%   5%   8%  22%  65%        Dale Holman        Glenn Davis        Daryle Ward
Daniel Dorn       1B      0%   4%   7%  25%  64%        Greg Sparks    Tyler Brilinski     Oreste Marrero
Zack Cozart       SS      9%  18%  31%  26%  16%        Josh Wilson     Rafael Ramirez     Trevor Plouffe
Eric Campbell     3B      1%   4%   9%  18%  69%        Tony Zuniga       Brad Seitzer        Craig Walck
Edgar Renteria    SS      3%   6%  14%  26%  51%       Gene Michael     Dennis Hocking       Marty Marion
Corky Miller      C       4%   8%  12%  26%  51%        Rick Cerone          Tony Pena       Rick Ferrell
Chris Valaika     2B      1%   2%   3%  10%  84%      Ray Navarrete       Brennan King     Gregorio Petit
Denis Phipps      CF      0%   1%   5%  17%  77%    Marvin Garrison        Xavier Paul        Mitch Maier
Cody Puckett      2B      2%   4%   7%  16%  71%        Wade Rowdon          Bob Bafia          Jeff Eure
Daryl Jones       LF      0%   1%   2%   4%  93%    Kevin Koslofski         Mike Neill      Vernon Thomas
Didi Gregorius    SS      3%   4%  10%  18%  65%     Gary DiSarcina      Terry Crowley      Luis Quinones
Brodie Greene     2B      3%   2%   3%   8%  83%     Matt Witkowski     Ron Gardenhire      Freddie Bynum
Ryan LaMarre      CF      1%   2%   6%  13%  78%        Turner Ward       Jeff McNeely       Darren Lewis
Paul Janish       SS      1%   1%   7%  21%  71%         Kevin Baez           Stu Cole        Pedro Lopez
Kris Negron       SS      2%   2%   7%  17%  72%    Hector Tiburcio      Nelson Castro      Andres Duncan
Mike Costanzo     3B      1%   1%   1%   2%  95%        Tom Quinlan       Sean Mcnally         Ryan Owens

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Sean Marshall     RP      74%    21%     5%          Don Mossi        Joe Sambito   Willie Hernandez
Mat Latos         SP      65%    30%     5%         Roy Oswalt         Jake Peavy         Andy Benes
Bill Bray         RP      34%    46%    20%    George Sherrill        Alan Embree         Will Ohman
Nick Masset       RP      26%    55%    19%      Ryan Dempster         Todd Jones    Hector Carrasco
Johnny Cueto      SP      53%    42%     5%        Storm Davis       John Farrell        Bobby Jones
Francisco Cordero RP      32%    42%    26%      Moe DrabowskyShigetoshi Hasegawa   Giovanni Carrara
Aroldis Chapman   RP      22%    54%    24%          Ken Brett        John Rocker     Mitch Williams
Jose Arredondo    RP      13%    46%    41%         Jim Stoops      Doug Bochtler    Derrick Turnbow
Logan Ondrusek    RP      13%    45%    41%          Matt Ryan       Scott Munter         Sean Green
Jeremy Horst      RP      11%    50%    40%       Bill Moloney      Gabe Gonzalez       Mike Venafro
Carlos Fisher     RP       6%    38%    56%    David Holdridge       Mike Butcher     Marc Pisciotta
Homer Bailey      SP      17%    58%    25%      Frank Pastore       Aaron Harang      Brian Kingman
Sam LeCure        SP       4%    41%    55%    Andy McGaffigan Francisco Oliveras        Nelson Cruz
Josh Judy         RP       8%    34%    57%      Darrin Chapin      Jorge Vasquez         Todd Bussa
Mike Leake        SP       9%    54%    37%     Justin Germano      Steve Woodard     Edgar Gonzalez
Bronson Arroyo    SP       6%    28%    65%    Bill Gullickson      Mike Caldwell    Jack Billingham
Donnie Joseph     RP       2%    22%    77%    Kevin Lovingier  Taylor Tankersley       Mike Bumatay
Jordan Smith      RP       1%    13%    86%        Brian Allen        Arty Santos         Trey Witte
Sean Gallagher    SP       0%     4%    96%     Darwin Peguero        Mike Gordon     Jose Vaquedano
Luis Atilano      SP       1%    11%    89%     Ryan Hutchison       Danny Muegge Cristhian Martinez
Brandon Hynick    SP       0%     4%    96%        Pat Ahearne        Jim Magrane        Steve Finch
Pedro Villarreal  SP       0%     4%    96%       Dane Johnson        Jason Jones    Cameron Reimers
Kanekoa Texeira   RP       0%     3%    97%       Martin Rivas         Blake Mayo    William Vaughan
Dallas Buck       SP       1%     7%    92%          Sean Lowe       Mark AmbroseJohn Van Benschoten
Clayton Tanner    SP       0%     2%    98%         Joe Beimel       Josh Stewart         Matt White
Chad Reineke      SP       1%     3%    97%        Jason Roach    Vicente Bonilla      Tim McClaskey
Andrew Brackman   SP       0%     0%   100%      Jon Leicester        Keith Davis      Travis Hughes

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Joey Votto              41%      77%      68%       9%       1%      48%      60%       5%
Jay Bruce                5%      11%      30%       1%       4%      43%      10%       2%
Brandon Phillips        19%       5%       8%       6%       3%       6%       3%       8%
Chris Heisey             5%       2%      11%       0%       1%       2%       2%       2%
Juan Francisco           8%       0%      30%       6%       5%      19%       2%       0%
Scott Rolen              9%       3%      13%       0%       1%       0%       3%       0%
Devin Mesoraco           2%       3%       7%       3%       4%       3%       1%       0%
Miguel Cairo            14%       8%       4%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Drew Stubbs              1%       1%       1%       0%       6%       3%       0%      79%
Ryan Hanigan            14%      29%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Henry Rodriguez         17%       1%       4%      13%       2%       5%       2%      46%
Todd Frazier             1%       1%       3%       2%       1%       7%       0%       4%
Neftali Soto             1%       0%      14%       0%       2%      36%       1%       0%
Donald Lutz              5%       0%       5%       0%       3%      10%       1%       0%
Daniel Dorn              0%       0%       4%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%
Zack Cozart              2%       1%       1%       1%       2%       0%       0%       2%
Eric Campbell            1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Edgar Renteria           5%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Corky Miller             3%       6%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Chris Valaika            2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Denis Phipps             1%       0%       0%       1%      14%       0%       0%       0%
Cody Puckett             0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       1%       0%       4%
Daryl Jones              0%       1%       1%       0%       6%       0%       0%       0%
Didi Gregorius           5%       0%       1%       0%      25%       0%       0%       4%
Brodie Greene            2%       0%       1%       0%       6%       1%       0%      17%
Ryan LaMarre             1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%      76%
Paul Janish              1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Kris Negron              0%       0%       1%       0%      11%       1%       0%       4%
Mike Costanzo            0%       0%       1%       0%       1%       1%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Sean Marshall             72%        94%        95%        18%        93%
Mat Latos                 31%        86%        80%         8%        69%
Bill Bray                 34%        73%        79%         4%        76%
Nick Masset               26%        76%        75%         0%        79%
Johnny Cueto              16%        77%         3%         4%        82%
Francisco Cordero         26%        68%        10%         2%        83%
Aroldis Chapman           17%        65%        98%         0%        76%
Jose Arredondo             9%        52%        87%         0%        62%
Logan Ondrusek             9%        52%         2%         2%        68%
Jeremy Horst               8%        46%         7%         4%        67%
Carlos Fisher              4%        37%        48%         0%        57%
Homer Bailey               2%        37%        11%         5%        56%
Sam LeCure                 2%        35%        23%         4%        31%
Josh Judy                  6%        36%        56%         0%        56%
Mike Leake                 1%        28%         2%        15%        23%
Bronson Arroyo             1%        14%         0%        26%        10%
Donnie Joseph              1%        14%        78%         0%        41%
Jordan Smith               1%        10%         0%         5%        32%
Sean Gallagher             0%         2%         2%         0%        30%
Luis Atilano               0%         3%         0%         5%        29%
Brandon Hynick             0%         1%         0%         0%        16%
Pedro Villarreal           0%         0%         0%         3%         7%
Kanekoa Texeira            0%         2%         0%         0%        35%
Dallas Buck                0%         3%         0%         1%        64%
Clayton Tanner             0%         0%         0%         0%        10%
Chad Reineke               0%         1%         1%         1%         9%
Andrew Brackman            0%         0%         0%         0%        23%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
Brewers
Orioles
Rockies
Braves
Astros
Cardinals
Dodgers
Twins
Giants
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 08, 2012 at 02:05 PM | 34 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. awebgsu Posted: January 08, 2012 at 03:39 PM (#4031686)
How about a full Travis Wood projection since he missed the Cubs posting?
   2. Rays&Sox; Posted: January 08, 2012 at 04:02 PM (#4031706)
Wow, how bad was Bruce in RF last year to go from EX to AV range in one year? At least the error rate is down from 119 to 70.
   3. puck Posted: January 08, 2012 at 04:25 PM (#4031722)
Not a very good year (8 HR's?) projected for Chapman.
   4. Boxkutter Posted: January 08, 2012 at 05:17 PM (#4031758)
Not a very good year (8 HR's?) projected for Chapman.


That's a little less than 1 homer every 9 innings. Seems about average.
   5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 08, 2012 at 05:22 PM (#4031762)
Is it possible to project Chapman as a starter? Isn't he moving to the rotation full-time this year?
   6. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 08, 2012 at 05:30 PM (#4031768)
I'm amused that Juan Francisco is considered a better hitter than Scott Rolen
   7. SG Posted: January 08, 2012 at 06:00 PM (#4031781)
Is it possible to project Chapman as a starter? Isn't he moving to the rotation full-time this year?


Using the ZiPS Starter -> Reliever conversion tool.

9-9, 25 GS, 150 IP, 128 H, 72 R, 17 HR, 102 BB, 176 K, 4.32 ERA.

   8. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: January 08, 2012 at 06:09 PM (#4031785)
Daniel Dorn? Is that Roger's kid?
   9. Hit by Pitch Posted: January 08, 2012 at 06:11 PM (#4031787)
They were going to stretch Chapman out in the AFL and Puerto Rico over the winter but he developed "left shoulder inflammation" after a couple of innings and won't pitch again until spring training. They do still plan to have him start though.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111115&content_id=25981000&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
   10. UCCF Posted: January 08, 2012 at 06:22 PM (#4031796)
I missed the Sean Marshall trade over the holidays. It always felt like the Cubs jerked him around, in and out of the rotation, back and forth from the bullpen. I always wondered what he'd do given a full season in the rotation of 30+ starts.
   11. puck Posted: January 08, 2012 at 06:40 PM (#4031806)
That's a little less than 1 homer every 9 innings. Seems about average.


Is that avg for a guy who has a 11.5/9 K rate and a higher than avg GB/FO ratio?
   12. SG Posted: January 08, 2012 at 07:12 PM (#4031822)
Is that avg for a guy who has a 11.5/9 K rate and a higher than avg GB/FO ratio?


His park is an issue. HR park factors for GAB over the last three years:

2009: 1.176
2010: 1.136
2011: 1.314

3/2/1 Wt avg: 1.23

So figure he'd look better in a more neutral park.
   13. Walt Davis Posted: January 08, 2012 at 10:08 PM (#4031894)
Also Chapman's entire pro career (m & M) amounts to 171 IP ... everything is going to get regressed heavily. But 8 HR does seem high.

If he gets to his career projection, Votto's gonna be an interesting HoF debate. Looks light unless he adds a 2nd MVP.

I'm surprised ZiPS didn't go into an infinite loop of double-checking when it saw that Cairo projection. :-)

And a wicked good projection for Marshall -- starting to think the Cubs didn't get enough for him.

   14. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 08, 2012 at 10:58 PM (#4031922)


Using the ZiPS Starter -> Reliever conversion tool.


Wow, didn't know Dan made that. Very cool.
   15. Danny Posted: January 09, 2012 at 01:28 AM (#4031966)
That's an ugly comp for Marshall.
   16. Good cripple hitter Posted: January 09, 2012 at 01:45 AM (#4031968)
I only remember him as the Mariners rule 5 pick a couple of years ago, but Kanekoa Texeira had quite the year.

In the majors, he threw 6 1/3 innings, gave up 13 hits, 2 walks, and 1 wild pitch, but because the hits were all singles that were spread out they only led to 2 runs and an ERA of 2.84. The Royals sent him down to the minors and the hits kept on coming, but he wasn't so lucky with the runs:

AAA with the Royals, he had 10 1/3 innings and gave up 7 runs on 12 hits and 7 walks.
In AA with the Yankees, he had 11 innings and gave up 18 runs on 24 hits.
AAA again, 4 1/3 innings and gave up 13 runs on 16 hits and 3 walks.

So from AA to the majors he gave up 65 hits in 32 innings, which seems like an impressively bad hit rate for a guy who's never really been that bad of a pitcher.
   17. hokieneer Posted: January 09, 2012 at 01:52 AM (#4031969)
Seems at least the 2nd year in a row I've thought the Zips for Bruce was a little low. I'll have to go back and see last years entry, but I remember feeling he was easily going to surpass it.

And a wicked good projection for Marshall -- starting to think the Cubs didn't get enough for him.


Given the intro graphs from Dan, I seem to think the Reds might have got rid of Wood a little too early. I still think he has a decent chance at being an average NL starter. Someone like that would be a huge for the Reds in '11 and beyond. Marshall will be a stud in the pen, but I'm not too confident about the trade.

If Mesoraco and Cozart produce like that from the C and SS position I'll be perfectly happy.
   18. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 09, 2012 at 02:27 AM (#4031972)
Seems at least the 2nd year in a row I've thought the Zips for Bruce was a little low. I'll have to go back and see last years entry, but I remember feeling he was easily going to surpass it.


For Bruce (OPS+)

11 ZiPS - 123 Actual - 119
10 ZiPS - 102 Actual - 124
09 ZiPS - 115 Actual - 101
08 ZiPS - 101 Actual - 97

   19. *BaseClogger* Posted: January 09, 2012 at 02:31 AM (#4031973)
Check out the defense though:

C: Mesoraco - AV
Hanigan - VG

since they figure to split the playing time

1B: Joey Votto - AV

and he won a gold glove

2B: Brandon Phillips - VG

SS: Zack Cozart - VG

3B: Scott Rolen - VG

although I'm a little concerned by who gets the reps *when* he gets hurt

LF: Chris Heisey - AV

I'm convinced he's better than that in LF if he can play an "AV" CF

CF: Drew Stubbs - AV

he could be great

RF: Jay Bruce - AV

was just "EX" last year and will likely bounce back to above-average
   20. Walt Davis Posted: January 09, 2012 at 03:10 AM (#4031981)
I think Wood could be decent too. And the other two guys they got could be useful. But of relievers projected so far, Marshall has the 6th best ERA+. 3 of the 5 ahead of him (Kimbrel, Jansen, Romo) are young guys who aren't available and the 4th was Papelbon who signed for several million. I know Marshall hasn't been sprinkled with closer dust but if you're trading the best available reliever (I'm guessing), I might expect quite a haul (given the way relievers are valued around the league). I guess it is (likely) much better than what the A's got for Bailey.
   21. hokieneer Posted: January 09, 2012 at 03:14 AM (#4031983)
Seems at least the 2nd year in a row I've thought the Zips for Bruce was a little low. I'll have to go back and see last years entry, but I remember feeling he was easily going to surpass it.


For Bruce (OPS+)

11 ZiPS - 123 Actual - 119
10 ZiPS - 102 Actual - 124
09 ZiPS - 115 Actual - 101
08 ZiPS - 101 Actual - 97


Thanks dan. I went back and reread the '10 and '11 projection threads, and my only contribution to either with regard to Bruce was last year:

I'll take the over for Bruce and 29 HR.


In addition I had already forgotten how much Bruce cooled of in the 2nd half. My mind has wonderful memories of May baseball I suppose.

I hope for '12 I'm finally right about being wrong about Bruce's production vs. projections. Let's hope one of these days he gets a better feel for controlling the zone.
   22. hokieneer Posted: January 09, 2012 at 03:21 AM (#4031984)
Walt:

I would rather have a 24-25 year old lefty with 4+ years of control that has a chance to be an average starter than a stud reliever on a 1 year deal. That's especially true given the current state of the Cubs. For the Reds, it's a little trickier of a question. It's not like they dealt from a position of strength to get Marshall.
   23. Dan Posted: January 09, 2012 at 04:09 AM (#4031993)
How many pitchers has ZiPS ever projected to give up 30 home runs? Arroyo's projected to allow 30 in 2012 in just 170 innings here. That's quite a HR rate.
   24. Walt Davis Posted: January 09, 2012 at 05:46 AM (#4032002)
I would rather have a 24-25 year old lefty with 4+ years of control that has a chance to be an average starter than a stud reliever on a 1 year deal.

I probably would too. But then I'd probably have rather had Marshall in the rotation the last couple of years (and especially last year's disaster) and I might well rather have the stud reliever signed to an extension, so we can't trust my opinion.

But my point was given how much teams value relievers -- which is a lot more than we tend to value them around here -- and if we were offering "the best reliever on the market" then I'm not sure there wasn't the chance to get more than Wood.

And, let's see if we can hijack a Reds ZiPS thread (doesn't happen often) -- given the Cubs should be running $130+ M payrolls year after year after year, "years of control" is not a particularly important concept for them. Never a bad thing of course but it shouldn't often be a key factor in deciding between an average and a good player. Unless the "next good Cubs team" ain't arriving until 2016, no reason Marshall couldn't have been part of the next good Cubs team. (And he still could if we sign him next offseason.)
   25. Jim Wisinski Posted: January 09, 2012 at 08:33 AM (#4032025)
That's an ugly comp for Marshall.


Well played!
   26. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 09, 2012 at 09:01 AM (#4032036)
Baseclogger:

Stubbs is already 27 years old. He is as good as he is ever going to be.

Defensively he is very good. But he's not taking a step into Garry Maddoxx territory or anything.

If the Reds can keep some starters healthy this team could well win 90 games.
   27. deputydrew Posted: January 09, 2012 at 03:30 PM (#4032299)
Thanks a bunch for posting these - I really like them and they help as I prepare for my Strat-O-Matic league. Is there a full schedule for the updates?
   28. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 09, 2012 at 03:37 PM (#4032316)
3B: Scott Rolen - VG

although I'm a little concerned by who gets the reps *when* he gets hurt


Eh, Francisco won't be much worse than Encarnacion ever was...
   29. Ok, Griffey's Dunn (Nothing Iffey About Griffey) Posted: January 09, 2012 at 04:15 PM (#4032381)
Mike Leake has posted 96 and 101 OPS+ in his two major league seasons and seems to be improving rapidly, and he gets projected for a 91 in 2012? I'll bet a bb-ref sponsership he beats that
   30. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 09, 2012 at 04:17 PM (#4032389)
Post 29

Pitchers do have their ups and downs, but I suspect you are correct.

Leake looks to be solid
   31. Ken015 Posted: January 10, 2012 at 08:31 AM (#4032947)
Leake's zips are a bit puzzling. Perhaps it had something to do with the brief stint in AAA.
   32. *BaseClogger* Posted: January 10, 2012 at 02:28 PM (#4033305)
You would think ZiPS would love guys who completely skip the minor leagues, no?
   33. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 13, 2012 at 10:14 PM (#4036762)
Francisco won't be much worse than Encarnacion ever was...


Have you ever seen Francisco play? Garrett Atkins had more range than Francisco does.

-- MWE

EDIT: and I don't understand how he gets an "AV" up there.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Sebastian
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.7149 seconds
47 querie(s) executed