Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, January 30, 2012

2012 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians

The 2011 Indians hung around in the divisional race far longer than they had any right to, so kudos to them for being relevant ahead of schedule - the Tigers were simply a stronger team and it was hard to keep that going for an entire season.

The Indians still aren't really ready to compete with the Tigers, but there are at least some encouraging signs. The team still has all sorts of interesting infielders and despite only finishing 9th in the league in scoring, the team has offense at all the hardest positions to find offense, the problem being the lack of success the organization has had at finding that average first baseman or leftfielder to sit in the middle of the lineup. It's not for lack of trying, but for whatever reason, Matt LaPorta's never improved past the Ben Broussard "below-average but not horrible" tier and Beau Mills just never became a major league caliber hitter.

Ubaldo Jimenez makes the rotation a lot better than it was heading into 2011. Still, the team has more serviceable starting pitchers, the types that are below-average and above replacement level, than actual good ones and the offense hasn't developed at this point to the extent that it can paper over the weakness (as Detroit did last year). For that next step forward, in addition to that missing bat, a couple of the Indians's stable of cromulent 4th/5th starters need to show more improvement.

Probably a .500 team again, but not a serious threat to the Tigers unless the wheels really come off.

Next Up: Arizona Diamondbacks

Oracle on Twitter
Szymborski on ESPN


Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Carlos Santana    B    C    26   .246 .361 .449 142 499  80 123  31   2  22  78  91 122   6   2  123
Shin-Soo Choo     L    RF   29   .268 .360 .430 123 456  62 122  23   3  15  62  58 111  15   5  118
Travis Hafner     L    DH   35   .259 .346 .423  93 324  39  84  17   0  12  46  38  74   1   0  112
Asdrubal Cabrera  B    SS   26   .275 .333 .422 151 590  82 162  33   3  16  74  46 110  15   5  107
Jason Kipnis      L    2B   25   .258 .320 .420 148 578  82 149  28   9  16  67  49 134  13   2  103
Grady Sizemore    L    CF   29   .243 .319 .434  82 325  45  79  20   3  12  47  32  83   8   4  106
Matt LaPorta      R    1B   27   .253 .321 .422 128 446  54 113  25   1  16  63  40 100   1   1  103
Michael Brantley  L    LF   25   .270 .330 .367 140 566  84 153  26   4   7  50  50  78  24   7   93
Jose Lopez        R    3B   28   .268 .296 .419 143 530  61 142  32   0  16  70  19  58   4   1   95
Lonnie Chisenhall L    3B   23   .255 .312 .404 144 545  74 139  28   4  15  73  38 108   2   1   96
Shelley Duncan    R    LF   32   .228 .309 .398 112 364  45  83  20   0  14  58  39  97   1   0   94
Kosuke Fukudome   L    RF   35   .240 .335 .370 129 433  52 104  23   3   9  37  61  94   5   6   95
Ezequiel Carrera  L    CF   25   .263 .329 .327 141 517  69 136  15   6   2  40  45 101  33  10   83
Aaron Cunningham  R    RF   26   .243 .306 .391 148 494  68 120  32   4  11  66  41 118   6   5   91
Jason Donald      R    SS   27   .248 .314 .350 109 400  48  99  20   3   5  28  31 101  11   3   84
Chun-Hsiu Chen    R    C    23   .240 .300 .382 130 484  48 116  27   3  12  62  41 136   3   2   87
Felix Pie         L    LF   27   .248 .295 .378 106 286  37  71  14   4   5  24  19  60   6   3   85
Fred Lewis        L    LF   31   .237 .324 .357 110 325  46  77  18   3   5  27  38  85   9   6   89
Thomas Neal       R    LF   24   .250 .315 .358 123 472  63 118  26   2   7  51  35 116   8   6   86
Cord Phelps       B    2B   25   .249 .317 .360 135 503  55 125  25   5   7  49  48 111   6   8   87
Jared Goedert     R    3B   27   .231 .293 .367 113 425  45  98  23   1  11  47  35 101   1   0   81
Nick Weglarz      L    LF   24   .208 .322 .350  85 303  43  63  17   1   8  34  47  95   1   2   86
Beau Mills        L    1B   25   .236 .282 .374 132 508  49 120  27   2  13  68  31 116   1   1   80
Jack Hannahan     L    3B   32   .223 .303 .347 110 337  40  75  17   2   7  37  38  93   2   1   80
Andy LaRoche      R    2B   28   .233 .303 .343 116 361  43  84  18   2   6  38  31  64   3   2   79
Lou Marson        R    C    26   .231 .313 .319 109 351  41  81  17   1   4  30  41  88   7   2   76
Ryan Spilborghs   R    RF   32   .227 .302 .344 117 291  32  66  14   1   6  31  29  75   4   4   78
Michel Hernandez  R    C    33   .240 .306 .316  60 196  20  47   9   0   2  23  17  28   1   1   73
Juan Diaz         B    SS   23   .235 .275 .329 156 604  58 142  23   5   8  60  32 140   8   3   67
Luke Carlin       B    C    31   .210 .312 .298  75 238  30  50   9   0   4  25  34  68   2   1   70
Adam Everett      R    SS   35   .231 .279 .308  51 130  16  30   7   0   1   8   8  25   2   1   62
Matt Pagnozzi     R    C    29   .215 .273 .293  80 246  21  53  10   0   3  24  18  72   0   1   57

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Carlos Santana           FR   FR/98
Shin-Soo Choo                                                AV/107          AV/107
Travis Hafner
Asdrubal Cabrera                      AV/93           FR/82
Jason Kipnis                         AV/160
Grady Sizemore                                                        AV/66
Matt LaPorta                 FR/113                           FR/96          FR/115
Michael Brantley                                              VG/79   AV/68
Jose Lopez                   AV/106  AV/120   VG/88
Lonnie Chisenhall                            VG/120
Shelley Duncan               FR/100                           FR/95          FR/104
Kosuke Fukudome                                                       PO/92   FR/59
Ezequiel Carrera                                             VG/109  VG/107   VG/97
Aaron Cunningham                                             AV/104  PO/109  FR/106
Jason Donald                          AV/94  AV/105  FR/104
Chun-Hsiu Chen           AV
Felix Pie                                                     AV/51   AV/92   AV/51
Fred Lewis                                                   AV/102  FR/101  FR/119
Thomas Neal                                                  VG/129  FR/111  AV/106
Cord Phelps                          AV/116  AV/123  FR/106
Jared Goedert                AV/102  PO/116  FR/129          FR/124          FR/124
Nick Weglarz                                                 AV/165          FR/123
Beau Mills                   AV/114
Jack Hannahan                 AV/94  AV/100   EX/79  PO/103
Andy LaRoche                 VG/109  FR/112   AV/87  FR/102
Lou Marson               VG
Ryan Spilborghs                                              FR/101  FR/118  FR/125
Michel Hernandez         AV
Juan Diaz                                            AV/117
Luke Carlin              AV  AV/118
Adam Everett                         VG/118   AV/99   VG/85
Matt Pagnozzi            AV  FR/118

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Ubaldo Jimenez    R      28     3.52    15    9   31   31   196.7  175   77   14   80  188   118
Justin Masterson  R      27     3.71    12    9   33   31   204.0  205   84   13   65  153   112
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Josh Tomlin       R      27     4.56     9   10   26   25   150.0  157   76   21   36   85    91
Derek Lowe        R      39     4.68    11   12   28   28   157.7  181   82   16   48   99    89
Fauxsto Carmona   R      28     4.70    10   12   30   30   178.0  191   93   20   63  106    89
Kevin Slowey      R      28     4.88     6    8   24   20   114.3  133   62   17   19   78    85
Jeanmar Gomez     R      24     4.90    11   13   30   30   172.7  198   94   18   66   97    85
Carlos Carrasco   R      25     4.95     8   10   25   25   143.7  156   79   20   52  101    84
Zach McAllister   R      24     5.16     7   10   27   27   151.7  185   87   17   44   89    81
Matt Packer       L      24     5.35     8   11   28   23   139.7  169   83   19   39   78    78
David Huff        L      27     5.36     8   12   27   26   144.3  172   86   19   52   78    78
Scott Barnes      L      24     5.60     5    9   22   21   107.7  117   67   17   56   83    74
Corey Kluber      R      26     5.86     6   11   28   26   136.7  167   89   17   70   94    71
Chris Seddon      L      28     6.08     5   10   26   20   120.0  151   81   17   56   64    69
Kelvin De La Cruz L      23     6.30     4    8   24   19    90.0  100   63   13   73   64    66

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Vinnie Pestano    R      27     3.38     3    2   58    0    53.3   46   20    5   22   59   124
Chris Perez       R      26     3.79     4    3   66    0    61.7   53   26    6   28   56   110
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Joe Smith         R      28     3.95     3    2   66    0    57.0   53   25    4   26   43   106
Dan Wheeler       R      34     4.05     3    2   54    0    46.7   45   21    7   12   40   103
Tony Sipp         L      28     4.14     3    3   66    0    58.7   51   27    8   29   62   101
Nick Hagadone     L      26     4.24     6    5   56    0    76.3   73   36    8   33   63    98
Rafael Perez      L      30     4.27     3    3   69    0    59.0   63   28    5   22   33    98
Chen Lee          R      25     4.39     4    4   45    0    69.7   68   34    7   31   63    95
Chris Ray         R      30     4.63     2    3   46    0    44.7   46   23    5   20   32    90
Hector Ambriz     R      28     4.70     1    1   35    0    46.0   50   24    6   16   35    89
Frank Herrmann    R      28     4.75     2    2   51    0    66.3   73   35    8   21   39    88
Rob Tejeda        R      30     4.75     3    3   45    0    53.0   55   28    8   22   43    88
Chad Durbin       R      34     4.81     2    2   54    0    63.7   67   34    8   29   52    87
Jeremy Accardo    R      30     4.81     3    3   52    0    58.0   64   31    5   27   34    87
Steven Wright     R      27     7.17     2    7   34   11    90.3  124   72   16   54   46    58

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Asdrubal Cabrera     .268  .326  .405  2235  8650  1147  2316   460    39   217  1049   672  1454   180   101
Jose Lopez           .263  .293  .402  1885  7054   782  1855   399    11   187   889   264   761    50    87
Carlos Santana       .238  .349  .419  1896  6713   983  1601   395    24   256   963  1156  1440    65   112
Grady Sizemore       .255  .337  .444  1497  5942   905  1517   358    60   215   776   643  1338   179   110
Shin-Soo Choo        .271  .360  .431  1513  5589   750  1513   296    39   174   764   683  1242   158   117
Michael Brantley     .265  .324  .366  1290  5191   745  1378   237    37    70   467   452   709   159    91
Travis Hafner        .273  .368  .480  1413  4916   710  1341   304    10   231   835   661  1117    11   128
Matt LaPorta         .245  .311  .401  1152  4004   454   981   222    10   128   521   349   815    11    96
Kosuke Fukudome      .252  .348  .384   879  2938   380   740   165    20    61   278   430   603    40    95
Fred Lewis           .255  .334  .386   833  2477   387   631   144    30    40   212   269   611    76    94

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Ubaldo Jimenez        194  148    0    3.81  451  449     2791 2521 1180  209 1204 2591    113
Derek Lowe            190  175   85    4.05  700  421     2878 2988 1296  240  848 1877    108
Justin Masterson      148  127    0    3.89  480  403     2640 2673 1140  192  923 1985    107
Fauxsto Carmona       119  146    0    4.75  380  348     2112 2242 1115  228  796 1278     89
Kevin Slowey           77   76    0    4.82  246  214     1240 1421  664  196  205  889     86

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Carlos Santana    C      67%  24%   7%   2%   0%     Darrell Porter    Josh Willingham       Curt Blefary
Shin-Soo Choo     RF     31%  32%  17%  12%   7%    Willie Crawford          J.D. Drew      Gary Matthews
Travis Hafner     DH      9%  24%  21%  28%  19%       Fred McGriff          Hal McRae        Richie Zisk
Asdrubal Cabrera  SS     49%  26%  17%   6%   2%         Gene Alley    Carney Lansford       Leo Cardenas
Jason Kipnis      2B     37%  21%  17%  14%   9%       Rickie Weeks        Mark Teahen         Bobby Rose
Grady Sizemore    CF     22%  23%  27%  18%  10%        Ricky Ledee         Randy Bush          Jose Cruz
Matt LaPorta      1B      2%  13%  19%  36%  29%       Joe Vitiello          Larry See        Matt LeCroy
Michael Brantley  LF      4%  11%  16%  25%  45%         Mel Almada        Jeremy Reed      Covelli Crisp
Jose Lopez        3B      3%  15%  24%  30%  29%          Ken Reitz          Joe Crede       Terry Tiffee
Lonnie Chisenhall 3B      4%  13%  21%  28%  33%       Scott Cooper      Howard Battle         David Bell
Shelley Duncan    LF      2%   8%  13%  25%  52%         Adam Hyzdu   Ryan Radmanovich   Carmelo Martinez
Kosuke Fukudome   RF      1%   4%   8%  18%  69%    Bobby Higginson         Tim Tolman         Al Zarilla
Ezequiel Carrera  CF      4%   7%  21%  34%  34%       Kenny Lofton          Alex Cole      Willy Taveras
Aaron Cunningham  RF      1%   4%   7%  18%  70%        Kevin Young      David McCarty     Keith Williams
Jason Donald      SS      6%  15%  29%  28%  22%      Fred Manrique       Hubie Brooks      Aaron Ledesma
Chun-Hsiu Chen    C       5%  18%  24%  31%  22%        John Roskos         Matt Nokes           Al Pardo
Felix Pie         LF      1%   2%   4%  11%  82%        Jim Wawruck      Trent Oeltjen       Steve Carter
Fred Lewis        LF      0%   2%   5%  15%  78%       Pat Sheridan       Tommy McCraw       Keith Hughes
Thomas Neal       LF      0%   1%   4%  13%  81%          Rod Allen  Lastings Milledge        Dale Holman
Cord Phelps       2B      2%   3%   8%  23%  64%         Ron Oester      Chris Pittaro         Bobby Rose
Jared Goedert     3B      1%   3%   8%  20%  69%       Brad Seitzer          Lou Lucca     Travis Metcalf
Nick Weglarz      LF      3%   3%   4%  11%  79%         Brad Hawpe      Richie Grayum        John Jensen
Beau Mills        1B      0%   0%   2%   9%  89%        Billy Owens         Ryan Jones       Mike Rendina
Jack Hannahan     3B      1%   2%   6%  16%  76%       Shanie Dugas         Ron Warner      Ray Giannelli
Andy LaRoche      2B      3%   3%   6%  18%  69%           Stu Cole        Keith Johns       John Tamargo
Lou Marson        C       2%   8%  15%  34%  41%       Dave Huppert         Bob Henley       Danny Ardoin
Ryan Spilborghs   RF      0%   1%   1%   4%  94%    Derek Nicholson        Chris Sheff        Dann Howitt
Michel Hernandez  C       1%   3%   8%  24%  64%        Chris Ashby       Chad Moeller     Kirt Manwaring
Juan Diaz         SS      2%   2%   6%  15%  76%    Yamaico Navarro       Juan Delgado        Mike Huyler
Luke Carlin       C       1%   3%   6%  19%  70%       Danny Ardoin       Steve Yeager      Jayhawk Owens
Adam Everett      SS      1%   1%   3%  10%  85%       Jeff Branson         Kevin Baez   Rafael Bournigal
Matt Pagnozzi     C       0%   0%   1%   4%  95%        Joe Hietpas      Dane Sardinha       Ray Stephens

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Vinnie Pestano    RP      47%    45%     9%        Jeff Little       Bryan Harvey   Scott Williamson
Ubaldo Jimenez    SP      66%    29%     5%        Juan Guzman       Chan Ho Park        Jim Maloney
Justin Masterson  SP      56%    39%     5%    John Montefusco     Camilo Pascual      Joey Hamilton
Chris Perez       RP      29%    55%    16%       Steve Sharts       Brian Wilson       Stan Belinda
Joe Smith         RP      28%    46%    26%          Mark Acre          David Lee     Woody Williams
Dan Wheeler       RP      20%    41%    39%       Jeff Reardon    Jeff Montgomery       Todd Worrell
Tony Sipp         RP      17%    49%    34%         Will Ohman        Ron Villone           Tom Hall
Nick Hagadone     RP      12%    53%    35%          Omar Daal        Jaime Cerda      Craig Breslow
Rafael Perez      RP      13%    43%    44%     Dave Von Ohlen        Juan Agosto        Dave Tomlin
Chen Lee          RP       9%    52%    39%         Jeff Zaske       Bo Donaldson          Ben Hayes
Josh Tomlin       SP      13%    51%    36%       Louis McCall        Bill Wegman      Mike Esposito
Chris Ray         RP       8%    32%    59%     Jason Childers        Gregg Olson      Ernie Camacho
Derek Lowe        SP      10%    42%    48%      Tom Candiotti     Woody Williams     Rick Sutcliffe
Hector Ambriz     RP       7%    30%    63%     Matt Whiteside       Turk Wendell          Bob Wells
Fauxsto Carmona   SP       5%    46%    49%          Josh Fogg     Denny Harriger         Ryan Drese
Frank Herrmann    RP       4%    34%    62%          Tim McNab    Rafael Montalvo        Jay Tessmer
Rob Tejeda        RP       5%    29%    66%         Doug Henry       Joel Peralta       Marino Salas
Chad Durbin       RP       3%    31%    66%      Jim Dougherty  Juan Eichelberger         Doug Henry
Jeremy Accardo    RP       4%    28%    68%      Mike Bumstead       Jake Robbins       Weston Weber
Kevin Slowey      SP       6%    40%    54%        Greg Wooten        Matt Ginter        Josh Towers
Jeanmar Gomez     SP       3%    43%    54%     Steve Fireovid     Steve Cummings     Steve Crawford
Carlos Carrasco   SP       3%    35%    62%         Mark Clark       Willie Adams      Cliff Politte
Zach McAllister   SP       1%    29%    70%        Clay Parker   Elizardo Ramirez          Bill King
Matt Packer       SP       0%    17%    82%   Bobby Livingston    John Rheinecker     Heath Phillips
David Huff        SP       0%    18%    81%        Lance Davis       Mike Linskey     Heath Phillips
Scott Barnes      SP       1%    13%    86%       Adam Bostick        Damian Moss         James Happ
Corey Kluber      SP       0%     5%    95%     Carlos Paredes      Chris Gissell        Jim Johnson
Chris Seddon      SP       0%     2%    98%     Mike Prochaska          Nate Teut          Tim McCoy
Kelvin De La Cruz SP       0%     2%    98%        Les Walrond      Mike Gonzalez      Nate Cromwell
Danny Salazar     SP       2%     5%    93%       Billy Traber         Craig Swan        Mike Gordon
Steven Wright     RP       0%     0%   100%           Dan Kolb      Mike Bumstead   Eddie Candelario

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Carlos Santana           2%      31%      13%       3%       1%      11%      17%       1%
Shin-Soo Choo           11%      31%       8%       0%       2%       2%      13%       5%
Travis Hafner            8%      19%       6%       0%       0%       0%       6%       0%
Asdrubal Cabrera        15%       6%       5%       7%       2%       5%       4%       7%
Jason Kipnis             3%       2%       5%       1%      41%       3%       3%       2%
Grady Sizemore           2%       4%       6%       0%       1%       0%       2%       1%
Matt LaPorta             2%       2%       3%       0%       0%       1%       2%       0%
Michael Brantley        10%       4%       1%       1%       5%       1%       1%      21%
Jose Lopez               7%       0%       3%       5%       0%       2%       0%       0%
Lonnie Chisenhall        3%       1%       3%       1%       5%       3%       1%       0%
Shelley Duncan           0%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Kosuke Fukudome          1%       8%       0%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Ezequiel Carrera         5%       4%       0%       0%      10%       0%       0%      59%
Aaron Cunningham         1%       0%       0%       3%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Jason Donald             2%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Chun-Hsiu Chen           1%       1%       1%       1%       2%       1%       0%       0%
Felix Pie                3%       0%       1%       0%       2%       0%       1%       0%
Fred Lewis               1%       4%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Thomas Neal              1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Cord Phelps              2%       1%       1%       0%       5%       0%       0%       0%
Jared Goedert            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Nick Weglarz             0%       4%       2%       0%       0%       1%       2%       0%
Beau Mills               0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jack Hannahan            0%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Andy LaRoche             1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Lou Marson               0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ryan Spilborghs          0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Michel Hernandez         4%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Juan Diaz                0%       0%       1%       1%      10%       1%       0%       0%
Luke Carlin              0%       3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Adam Everett             4%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Matt Pagnozzi            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Vinnie Pestano            47%        84%        91%         2%        77%
Ubaldo Jimenez            28%        86%        71%         0%        95%
Justin Masterson          21%        82%         9%         4%        97%
Chris Perez               29%        74%        52%         0%        73%
Joe Smith                 21%        67%        10%         0%        84%
Dan Wheeler               14%        52%        41%        33%        33%
Tony Sipp                 12%        58%        87%         0%        44%
Nick Hagadone              9%        52%        25%         0%        76%
Rafael Perez              13%        49%         1%         6%        85%
Chen Lee                   6%        47%        52%         0%        68%
Josh Tomlin                3%        29%         0%        41%        28%
Chris Ray                  8%        32%         7%         1%        69%
Derek Lowe                 2%        24%         2%        10%        64%
Hector Ambriz              5%        29%        13%         8%        42%
Fauxsto Carmona            1%        17%         1%         1%        58%
Frank Herrmann             2%        26%         0%        10%        51%
Rob Tejeda                 5%        27%        23%         2%        37%
Chad Durbin                2%        22%        20%         0%        42%
Jeremy Accardo             3%        21%         1%         1%        72%
Kevin Slowey               1%        17%         1%        94%        24%
Jeanmar Gomez              0%        12%         0%         0%        65%
Carlos Carrasco            0%        13%         2%         1%        24%
Zach McAllister            0%         5%         0%         9%        53%
Matt Packer                0%         4%         0%        16%        30%
David Huff                 0%         3%         0%         1%        34%
Scott Barnes               0%         3%         8%         0%        17%
Corey Kluber               0%         0%         1%         0%        37%
Chris Seddon               0%         0%         0%         0%        22%
Kelvin De La Cruz          0%         0%         3%         0%        24%
Danny Salazar              1%         4%         5%         2%        17%
Steven Wright              0%         0%         0%         0%        10%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
Nationals
Blue Jays
Rays
Royals
Reds
Brewers
Orioles
Rockies
Braves
Astros
Cardinals
Dodgers
Twins
Giants
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 30, 2012 at 01:42 PM | 19 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Boxkutter Posted: January 30, 2012 at 01:45 PM (#4049382)
Fauxsto Carmona

Nice!
   2. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:01 PM (#4049409)
If you don't mind, Dan, can you run some relievers? Paolo Espino, Bryan Price, and Bryce Stowell?

Thanks!
   3. Walt Davis Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:08 PM (#4049413)
Nice!

Indeed it was although I was hoping for an entertaining set of comps as well. At least Roberto Hernandez Heredia as his top comp. :-)
   4. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: January 30, 2012 at 02:11 PM (#4049420)
I was hoping Fauxsto's extrapolated career statistics would he his current ones.
   5. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: January 30, 2012 at 03:06 PM (#4049530)
For a guy who was a legit MVP candidate a few years ago, Ricky Ledee and Randy Bush are disappointing comps.
   6. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 30, 2012 at 03:18 PM (#4049559)
For a guy who was a legit MVP candidate a few years ago, Ricky Ledee and Randy Bush are disappointing comps.


Maybe "Randy Bush" is Dale Murphy's porn name.
   7. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 30, 2012 at 03:35 PM (#4049590)
For a guy who's never been a major league closer for long, Wheeler sure has some interesting comps.

Kipnis doesn't remind me of Rickie Weeks in any way, shape, or form (and it's not just the racial distinction between them, either - although Kevin Goldstein had some interesting speculation on that topic on the BP podcast the other day). I can definitely see the comps between Santana and Josh Willingham, though.

-- MWE
   8. Danny Posted: January 30, 2012 at 05:39 PM (#4049784)
Having Willie Crawford as his top comp doesn't inspire much confidence that Choo will be productive into his 30s.
   9. davidalan51 Posted: January 30, 2012 at 09:47 PM (#4049990)
No ZiPS love for RP Rafael Perez despite a 3.00 ERA in 2011 (and a 3.25 ERA in 2010). I guess he is doomed to drag his 2009 ERA of 7.31 (through projection averaging?) for years to come.
   10. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 30, 2012 at 09:52 PM (#4049993)
No ZiPS love for RP Rafael Perez despite a 3.00 ERA in 2011 (and a 3.25 ERA in 2010).


A 30-YO LOOGY who gives up nearly a hit per inning and who his seen his K rate drop to 4.7 per nine innings doesn't really merit any love, ZiPS or otherwise.

-- MWE
   11. JoeC Posted: January 31, 2012 at 03:28 AM (#4050140)
Wow, that Carlos Santana career projection is pretty much splitting the difference between Bill Freehan and Gary Carter. Not too shabby.
   12. Jagfire Posted: January 31, 2012 at 04:21 PM (#4050553)
Project Carmona for his real age, 31, not 28
   13. Gotham Dave Posted: January 31, 2012 at 04:33 PM (#4050560)
Thanks for mentioning Ben Broussard, who was subsequently revealed to me via Google search to be not only not as good of a player as I remembered, but also a professional singer-songwriter. Not my style, but he's not bad. Pretty cool.
   14. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: January 31, 2012 at 04:34 PM (#4050562)
Hard to believe the non-development of all the players traded for Cliff Lee in 2009. Marson, Donald and Carrasco were all prospects. Knapp (injured) was a high-risk, high-reward lottery ticket. The Phils then flipped him for a bunch of junk, although there is reasonable hope that Aumont will become a major league relief pitcher ("future closer" is bandied about around these parts).

EDITED to make sense.
   15. JJ1986 Posted: January 31, 2012 at 04:40 PM (#4050567)
Of the dozen or so players ever traded for Cliff Lee, Bartolo Colon is the one who had the best 2011.
   16. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: January 31, 2012 at 04:49 PM (#4050579)
Project Carmona for his real age, 31, not 28

For pitchers with a long track record, I would expect essentially no difference between the two. The aging curve for pitchers is very flat, especially in the middle years.
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 01, 2012 at 02:56 PM (#4051349)
Oops, forgot to change Fauxto's age.

As Voros said, it won't make much of a difference at all. The main risk factor for pitchers 25-35 isn't really aging, but their arms going boom, which they're all at risk of happening.
   18. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 01, 2012 at 03:01 PM (#4051362)
Thanks for mentioning Ben Broussard, who was subsequently revealed to me via Google search to be not only not as good of a player as I remembered, but also a professional singer-songwriter.


Anyone remember former Pirates outfielder Tony Alvarez? He's a reggaeton musician these days.
   19. DevinM Posted: February 02, 2012 at 11:18 PM (#4052447)
Seems like a low power output for Weglarz

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Mike Emeigh
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.6040 seconds
66 querie(s) executed