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Thursday, April 05, 2012

2012 ZiPS Projections, Final Edition

This is the final ZiPS release looking ahead at the 2012 season. These were finalized before the A's-Mariners games, so there's not "cheating" by including the 2 days of statistics into the model. The .zip file contains a full spreadsheet for Excel 2010 and CSV files for the batters and pitchers.

In addition to the usual projected things, I've now included the platoon splits and estimated projection for defensive runs.

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. A projection indicating how any given player would play in the majors rather than simply a blank line for many of the prospects and journeymen listed is less information and projecting how good someone is, rather than how much someone will play as a result of external decisions, is more consistent with application of the strengths of a computer. ZiPS isn't bad at projecting total *professional* playing time as there's a relationship between past playing time and future playing time, but there's a lot of specific decision-making and external events that affect this number.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Dan Szymborski Posted: April 05, 2012 at 01:21 PM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Vaca Posted: April 05, 2012 at 03:05 PM (#4098359)
Why are there so many Dodgers hitters (41)?
   2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 05, 2012 at 03:16 PM (#4098397)
Many, many thanks Dan.
   3. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: April 05, 2012 at 03:54 PM (#4098561)
Thanks so much, Dan.

Can you elaborate as how to intrepret the defensive ratings (I admit to being a bit sad at the lack of DMB-style defense stuff in the spreadsheets)? Is it only for the primary defensive position?
   4. threepointpi Posted: April 05, 2012 at 04:19 PM (#4098668)
Hey Dan,

Just wondering if you were going to put out a spreadsheet like the one you did last year with the players defensive ratings at every position they were eligible for? As opposed to only their primary position?

Thanks for all the work,
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: April 06, 2012 at 12:00 PM (#4099386)
For those that liked having all the defensive ratings for DMB in the spreadsheet, I uploaded a CSV for you guys.

The DR given was assuming they played all their games at their primary position.
   6. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: April 06, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4099421)
Thanks, Dan!
   7. Shibal Posted: April 07, 2012 at 09:46 AM (#4099863)
Thanks for all the work Dan!
   8. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: April 07, 2012 at 10:16 AM (#4099868)
Awesome - thanks so very much!
   9. NY Expat Posted: April 11, 2012 at 10:38 PM (#4104593)
Is there a page with the park effects that these stats are calculated with? I'd like to back them out to get a neutral projection.
   10. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: April 17, 2012 at 11:53 PM (#4109353)
If I may ask, how did Brian Bixler project (if you have it laying around)? That's an omission I should've caught...
   11. hcgolfer Posted: April 23, 2012 at 08:58 AM (#4113514)
I guess you didn't include Chen(from Baltimore) because you had no real history on him?
   12. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: April 23, 2012 at 09:38 AM (#4113529)
Chen's in there (Chen Wei-Yin: 10-10 4.44), though his age is off by a few years.
   13. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 23, 2012 at 09:54 AM (#4113537)
FWIW, Chen did not make the DMB 2012 Projection Disk.
   14. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: April 23, 2012 at 10:37 AM (#4113573)
Oh, sorry. I meant the file on this page.
   15. Dan Szymborski Posted: April 23, 2012 at 10:46 AM (#4113580)
Chen's there, but I forgot to tell Luke that I was using Chinese naming conventions when I refer to him as "Chen Wei-Yin" so his first and last name are in wrong fields in disk. I'm working on an update that I'm almost done.
   16. thetailor Posted: April 23, 2012 at 11:03 AM (#4113602)
Re: 10, I think that the Brian Bixler Project would make for a pretty good band name.
   17. jfish26101 Posted: April 23, 2012 at 03:24 PM (#4113814)
Bit disappointed Bard is projected as a fulltime SP with no RP rating. I have no idea what I am going to do with my pen, especially with Cashner getting a Pr RP rating and Soria's lackluster (though probably deserved) projection.
   18. Dan Szymborski Posted: April 23, 2012 at 03:51 PM (#4113846)
Are you not allowed in your league to use a SP as a RP if he doesn't have a RP rating? Unlike missing outfield ratings, DMB will give starters good relief ratings, unless they changed that in 10 and I missed it.
   19. jfish26101 Posted: April 23, 2012 at 04:03 PM (#4113859)
We are allowed but we can't convert them using your tool. Bard just went from a 145 ERA+ RP to a _____ RP if I want to continue using him as planned (my CL) which seems like a horrible use for him given the projection (113 as a SP). It isn't so much his SP rating as the fact I have nobody to replace him and didn't find out that my pen was in this kind of shape until 5 minutes before post #17 that disappoints me.
   20. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 23, 2012 at 04:14 PM (#4113867)
Ah, I found Chen, thanks Dan.

I don't know if you're going to be doing a revision at all, but Drew Hutchison has already been called up and there is no ZIPS projection for him, although in fairness, he had all of six starts above A ball.
   21. jfish26101 Posted: April 23, 2012 at 04:33 PM (#4113888)
...and I'm not saying you did anything wrong Dan, Bard is in the rotation so I understand why you did it. Just frustrating that I didn't find out this until the off-season was over as his initial projection was as a RP.
   22. Rays&Sox; Posted: April 25, 2012 at 09:48 PM (#4116363)
Fenway went from a 119 HR factor for lefties last year to 88 this year. Is that right? Seems like a big swing if it's based on a three year rolling average.
   23. craigsaboe Posted: May 31, 2012 at 11:21 AM (#4144122)
Dan, what is the licensing on the ZiPs data? If you provide analysis on that data, possibly in some sort of paid product, and of course identifying that data as your ZiPs predictions with some sort of "ZiPs data property of..." at the bottom, is that acceptable? Is there a license fee for any sort of commercial use? Obviously want to abide by your rules on usage - and, of course, great work there.

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