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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Friday, January 13, 2012
2012 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals
If you watch the Food Network, you might have come across a competitive cooking show called "Chopped" in which chefs are given baskets of mystery ingredients. Some ingredients are pretty cool, some ingredients have tremendous use in specific areas, and some ingredients are downright awful. Each one of the chefs that survive each round have to use all the ingredients together in a non-horrible way.
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That's a lot how the Royals are right now. There are a lot of the ingredients of a winning team in the future. Some of them are finished, quality products, like Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. Some of the ingredients, like Eric Hosmer and Johnny Giavotella, are exciting to work with. But a lot of the team's prospects, at this point, fall into the category of "interesting" like most of the pitchers having at least one serious flaw or concern to worry about. All these ingredients are scattered and all over the place and the Royals at this point, are still going to likely struggle to hit 75 wins.
There's still a lot more offseason left, but as of now, the good news is that there really aren't any horrible ingredients, with the single, notable exception of Yuniesky Betancourt, a player with little redeemable purpose and will get $2 million. $2 million isn't much in the big picture, but there are a lot of better ways to spend $2 million. You could drop $2 million in hundred-dollar bills over the sky in San Pedro de Macoris (each $100 with a Royals sticker affixed to it) and get a better return on investment than Yuni.
Dayton Moore has put together a very good farm system -- hardly surprising for a guy who came up through player development -- but I've seen absolutely nothing yet that suggests that he has the ability to take all these ingredients at his disposal and bake KC a winner.
Next Up: Tampa Bay Rays
Oracle on Twitter
Szymborski on ESPN
Batting Projections
Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
Eric Hosmer L 1B 22 .304 .354 .474 156 625 82 190 36 5 20 81 50 92 14 4 123
Billy Butler R 1B 26 .295 .362 .462 156 586 74 173 41 0 19 83 62 89 1 1 123
Alex Gordon L LF 28 .278 .358 .464 139 547 87 152 36 3 20 73 63 127 14 7 122
Mike Moustakas L 3B 23 .274 .316 .436 152 613 72 168 38 2 19 81 36 100 3 1 102
Jeff Francoeur R RF 28 .273 .314 .437 156 583 70 159 37 4 17 77 32 111 13 6 102
Johnny Giavotella R 2B 24 .271 .320 .384 156 627 83 170 35 6 8 64 44 90 13 7 91
Clint Robinson L 1B 27 .258 .309 .400 142 543 65 140 31 2 14 64 37 114 2 2 91
Lorenzo Cain R CF 26 .259 .314 .370 135 521 65 135 25 6 7 46 35 122 17 5 86
Salvador Perez R C 22 .274 .303 .393 146 547 55 150 29 3 10 66 21 69 0 1 88
Alcides Escobar R SS 25 .270 .309 .366 156 563 75 152 23 8 5 46 29 77 25 8 83
Brayan Pena B C 30 .267 .310 .380 73 221 19 59 13 0 4 26 13 26 2 1 87
Mitch Maier L LF 30 .246 .324 .353 92 272 35 67 12 4 3 24 30 58 4 2 85
Chris Getz L 2B 28 .266 .323 .320 112 372 48 99 13 2 1 30 28 47 19 5 76
Wil Myers R RF 21 .235 .317 .361 133 498 55 117 29 2 10 57 57 138 10 5 85
Yuniesky BetancourR SS 30 .262 .283 .385 149 543 53 142 28 3 11 63 18 55 3 4 80
David Lough L LF 26 .255 .297 .362 139 550 72 140 21 7 8 50 29 82 13 9 79
Max Ramirez R C 27 .232 .296 .363 90 306 34 71 14 1 8 42 26 88 0 0 79
Jarrod Dyson L CF 27 .237 .290 .302 105 388 52 92 13 3 2 28 28 81 35 6 62
Manny Pina R C 25 .227 .316 .326 86 282 35 64 16 0 4 26 29 58 0 0 76
Cheslor Cuthbert R 3B 19 .232 .285 .354 106 410 36 95 17 0 11 56 31 105 2 0 73
Tony Abreu B 2B 27 .247 .280 .352 121 446 52 110 21 4 6 46 19 99 7 5 71
Christian Colon R SS 23 .251 .297 .327 124 499 63 125 16 2 6 49 28 62 10 7 70
Irving Falu B RF 29 .254 .296 .315 122 473 56 120 13 5 2 38 29 49 12 7 67
Cody Clark R C 30 .236 .282 .338 63 195 20 46 11 0 3 16 11 36 1 1 68
Eric Duncan L LF 27 .222 .264 .342 119 424 47 94 20 2 9 41 24 119 3 2 64
Derrick Robinson B CF 24 .233 .279 .291 139 570 68 133 17 5 2 36 36 127 47 19 56
Mario Lisson R 3B 28 .207 .255 .324 122 435 49 90 22 1 9 41 24 138 15 4 57
Defensive Projections
Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF
Eric Hosmer FR/113
Billy Butler FR/96
Alex Gordon AV/117 AV/132 AV/81 FR/126
Mike Moustakas AV/109
Jeff Francoeur FR/70 FR/70
Johnny Giavotella AV/127 AV/117
Clint Robinson AV/161 FR/120
Lorenzo Cain VG/139 AV/135 VG/139
Salvador Perez VG
Alcides Escobar VG/121 VG/89 VG/118
Brayan Pena VG FR/120
Mitch Maier AV/88 AV/43 AV/113
Chris Getz AV/77 AV/119 FR/116
Wil Myers FR AV/133 FR/126 AV/133
Yuniesky Betancourt PO/96
David Lough VG/123 AV/97 AV/95
Max Ramirez FR FR/118
Jarrod Dyson VG/112 VG/141 VG/112
Manny Pina VG
Cheslor Cuthbert FR/110
Tony Abreu AV/105 VG/94 FR/121
Christian Colon VG/105 VG/127
Irving Falu FR/98 AV/101 FR/140 AV/114 AV/90
Cody Clark FR
Eric Duncan AV/136 PO/113 PO/116 FR/92 PO/114
Derrick Robinson VG/104 VG/153
Mario Lisson AV/112 FR/117
Pitching Projections - Starters
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96
Jonathan Sanchez L 29 4.36 8 8 26 25 136.3 125 66 15 79 126 95
Bruce Chen L 35 4.53 8 9 26 22 131.0 138 66 16 47 86 91
Luke Hochevar R 28 4.66 9 10 26 26 158.3 167 82 19 51 106 89
Felipe Paulino R 28 4.69 6 7 30 19 121.0 129 63 12 51 102 88
Jeff Francis L 31 4.72 7 8 24 24 139.3 161 73 15 33 72 88
John Lamb L 21 4.85 4 5 17 17 78.0 85 42 7 37 49 86
Mike Montgomery L 22 4.92 6 8 24 23 119.0 131 65 12 53 78 84
Danny Duffy L 23 4.92 6 7 22 22 113.3 121 62 16 46 92 84
Nathan Adcock R 24 4.97 4 5 26 12 88.7 101 49 9 37 48 83
Luis Mendoza R 28 4.99 7 9 28 19 122.7 144 68 11 49 51 83
Vin Mazzaro R 25 5.13 6 8 27 24 142.0 165 81 16 60 87 81
Jake Odorizzi R 22 5.40 6 9 25 24 123.3 140 74 18 55 86 77
Everett Teaford L 28 5.42 5 8 33 13 89.7 100 54 15 38 57 76
Sean O'Sullivan R 24 5.64 6 11 27 24 132.3 162 83 18 45 63 73
Noel Arguelles L 22 5.72 3 6 22 22 94.3 119 60 12 33 37 72
Ryan Verdugo L 25 5.75 5 9 22 22 114.3 125 73 15 80 90 72
Will Smith L 22 5.76 7 12 26 26 143.7 182 92 19 51 71 72
Jeff Suppan R 37 5.78 5 9 24 20 118.3 153 76 17 43 50 72
Kevin Pucetas R 27 5.86 4 8 29 19 116.7 148 76 16 47 57 71
Chris Dwyer L 24 5.89 6 11 26 26 123.7 137 81 16 85 81 70
Timothy Melville R 22 6.81 5 13 26 24 111.0 151 84 15 64 55 61
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Joakim Soria R 28 3.32 4 2 58 0 59.7 53 22 6 17 64 125
Jonathan Broxton R 28 3.50 4 3 44 0 43.7 38 17 4 20 50 118
Louis Coleman R 26 3.67 4 3 42 0 61.3 54 25 7 25 61 113
Greg Holland R 26 3.73 4 3 50 0 70.0 62 29 6 33 70 111
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Kelvin Herrera R 22 3.90 5 4 49 0 67.0 62 29 9 19 54 106
Tim Collins L 22 4.05 4 3 65 0 66.7 57 30 6 42 67 102
Blake Wood R 26 4.24 4 4 59 0 70.0 69 33 6 30 54 98
Jose Mijares L 27 4.38 1 1 60 0 49.3 50 24 5 23 37 95
Aaron Crow R 25 4.54 4 4 64 0 67.3 67 34 8 34 61 91
Jeremy Jeffress R 24 4.97 2 3 47 0 41.7 43 23 4 26 30 83
Zach Miner R 30 5.33 4 6 33 9 72.7 84 43 9 34 42 78
Tommy Hottovy L 30 6.04 1 2 35 0 50.7 60 34 8 27 30 69
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+
Eric Hosmer .295 .353 .470 2375 9418 1243 2781 529 80 318 1238 863 1322 256 122
Billy Butler .286 .352 .438 2255 8455 998 2416 567 3 239 1138 867 1208 14 114
Alex Gordon .266 .342 .434 1775 6891 997 1832 433 35 219 840 737 1472 145 110
Jeff Francoeur .269 .311 .426 2023 7625 921 2049 450 42 223 1037 414 1382 116 96
Yuniesky Betancour .263 .285 .381 1693 6116 627 1608 316 39 109 669 204 584 44 79
Chris Getz .259 .317 .312 698 2281 287 591 78 14 5 177 178 280 119 72
Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
Jeff Francis 98 111 0 4.82 311 310 1809 2069 969 215 506 1069 92
Bruce Chen 95 100 1 4.63 430 268 1739 1792 894 279 661 1247 92
Jonathan Sanchez 93 106 0 4.43 364 302 1687 1520 830 190 965 1638 94
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
Eric Hosmer 1B 26% 38% 19% 13% 4% Joe Vosmik Dan Driessen Kent Hrbek
Billy Butler 1B 22% 37% 21% 16% 4% Paul Konerko Mike Sweeney Sean Casey
Alex Gordon LF 34% 32% 15% 11% 8% Willie Crawford Rusty Greer Jim Edmonds
Mike Moustakas 3B 10% 24% 26% 23% 17% Aramis Ramirez Joe Crede Mike Lowell
Jeff Francoeur RF 3% 15% 20% 27% 35% Wil Cordero Glenn Wilson Jermaine Dye
Johnny Giavotella 2B 8% 10% 17% 28% 38% Jose Lopez Joseph Thurston Robin Yount
Clint Robinson 1B 0% 2% 6% 26% 65% Shawn W00t3n Danny Lewis Adam Lind
Lorenzo Cain CF 4% 9% 24% 34% 30% Alexis Rios Reggie Williams Xavier Paul
Salvador Perez C 5% 18% 23% 32% 22% Bengie Molina Matt Walbeck Einar Diaz
Alcides Escobar SS 7% 18% 32% 26% 17% Royce Clayton Cristian Guzman Cesar Izturis
Brayan Pena C 5% 16% 23% 33% 23% Jason Hill John Flaherty Sandy Alomar
Mitch Maier LF 0% 2% 4% 12% 82% Cory Sullivan Pat Sheridan Terry Bogener
Chris Getz 2B 3% 6% 12% 25% 54% Bernie Castro Mike Woodard Mrs. Lee Judge
Wil Myers RF 1% 3% 5% 12% 78% Brad Nelson Mike Edwards Jayson Werth
Yuniesky BetancourSS 2% 8% 19% 31% 41% Virgil Stallcup Aurelio Rodriguez Deivi Cruz
David Lough LF 0% 0% 1% 6% 92% Willie Crawford Rusty Greer Jim Edmonds
Max Ramirez C 2% 7% 14% 33% 45% Gilberto Reyes Alvin Colina Dusty Brown
Jarrod Dyson CF 1% 2% 9% 24% 64% Nyjer Morgan Adam Godwin Jose Constanza
Manny Pina C 2% 6% 11% 29% 53% Mike Nickeas Rob Bowen Matt Garrick
Cheslor Cuthbert 3B 1% 3% 6% 11% 79% Vince Rooi Ramon Castro John Hattig
Tony Abreu 2B 0% 1% 1% 6% 92% Fred Manrique Victor Mata Tommy Shields
Christian Colon SS 2% 3% 7% 16% 71% Al Pedrique Julio Cordido John McDonald
Irving Falu RF 0% 0% 0% 1% 99% Tom Runnells Terry Blocker Jose Macias
Cody Clark C 1% 3% 6% 17% 73% Charlie Greene Pedro Grifol Henry Blanco
Eric Duncan LF 0% 0% 0% 0% 99% Phil Geisler John Giudice Jason Aspito
Derrick Robinson CF 0% 0% 1% 4% 95% Eric Reed Jesus Tavarez Randy Winn
Mario Lisson 3B 0% 0% 1% 3% 96% Kody Kirkland David Maroul Ray Thoma
Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3
Joakim Soria RP 61% 33% 6% Trevor Hoffman Mike Schooler Robb Nen
Jonathan Broxton RP 43% 42% 16% Ryne Duren Jeff Little Rich Garces
Louis Coleman RP 32% 50% 18% Jose Valverde Stan Belinda Fernando Cabrera
Greg Holland RP 30% 57% 13% Mark Littell Bryce Florie Brad Lidge
Kelvin Herrera RP 21% 54% 24% Edwin Nunez Chris Britton Oscar Villarreal
Tim Collins RP 19% 52% 29% Mitch Williams John Rocker Darren Oliver
Blake Wood RP 11% 50% 39% Joe Bateman Jailen Peguero J.J. Trujillo
Jonathan Sanchez SP 21% 53% 26% Randy Johnson Tim Lollar Al Leiter
Jose Mijares RP 13% 45% 42% Ricardo Jordan Chris Marchok Felix Heredia
Bruce Chen SP 10% 50% 40% Paul Splittorff Jim Deshaies Mike Flanagan
Aaron Crow RP 6% 40% 54% Ben Hayes Bo Donaldson Darrin Chapin
Luke Hochevar SP 6% 47% 47% Richard Dotson Luis Leal Mike Gardiner
Felipe Paulino SP 7% 49% 44% Britt Reames Jaret Wright Steve Mura
Jeff Francis SP 11% 47% 42% Mark Hendrickson Greg Swindell Andrew Lorraine
John Lamb SP 8% 44% 48% Nate Robertson Eric Cyr Chris Hancock
Mike Montgomery SP 3% 38% 60% Matt Young Brandon Claussen John Daniels
Danny Duffy SP 5% 38% 57% Ray Fontenot Blaise Ilsley Matt Beech
Jeremy Jeffress RP 6% 27% 67% Bob Welch Mario Soto Jeff Smith
Nathan Adcock SP 1% 21% 78% Justin James Andy Nezelek Doug Potestio
Luis Mendoza SP 8% 35% 57% Bill Swift Tommie Sisk Howie Fox
Vin Mazzaro SP 1% 29% 69% Mitch Talbot Joe Bitker Don Robinson
Zach Miner RP 0% 13% 87% Leo Estrella Mike Heathcott Scott Brow
Jake Odorizzi SP 1% 16% 83% Adam Johnson Ramon Ramirez Jason Bell
Everett Teaford SP 0% 7% 93% Craig Minetto Mike Porzio Tommy Phelps
Sean O'Sullivan SP 0% 9% 91% Andy Ghelfi Cameron Reimers Brandon Leese
Noel Arguelles SP 0% 8% 91% Jon Connolly Jason Gooding Travis Baptist
Ryan Verdugo SP 0% 7% 93% Adam Bostick Les Walrond Steve Searcy
Will Smith SP 0% 5% 95% Bobby Livingston Heath Phillips Andy Van Hekken
Jeff Suppan SP 1% 9% 90% Dennis Springer Aaron Sele Kevin Jarvis
Kevin Pucetas SP 0% 5% 94% Pat Ahearne Jim Magrane Steve Finch
Chris Dwyer SP 0% 4% 96% Brian O'Connor Tim Cole Daniel Haigwood
Tommy Hottovy RP 0% 4% 96% Rusty Gerhardt Mark Watson Scott Watkins
Timothy Melville SP 0% 0% 100% Chris Kinsey Matt Achilles Mark Woodyard
Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB
Eric Hosmer 57% 21% 25% 22% 11% 14% 17% 6%
Billy Butler 41% 30% 17% 46% 0% 8% 16% 0%
Alex Gordon 19% 25% 21% 16% 2% 9% 16% 6%
Mike Moustakas 13% 1% 8% 24% 1% 8% 3% 0%
Jeff Francoeur 11% 1% 3% 16% 2% 1% 1% 3%
Johnny Giavotella 9% 1% 1% 16% 18% 0% 0% 4%
Clint Robinson 2% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lorenzo Cain 4% 1% 0% 0% 11% 0% 0% 3%
Salvador Perez 13% 0% 2% 3% 3% 1% 1% 0%
Alcides Escobar 10% 0% 0% 0% 35% 0% 0% 29%
Brayan Pena 15% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mitch Maier 4% 5% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Chris Getz 10% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10%
Wil Myers 0% 2% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 2%
Yuniesky Betancour 5% 0% 0% 1% 3% 0% 0% 0%
David Lough 3% 0% 0% 0% 22% 0% 0% 3%
Max Ramirez 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jarrod Dyson 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 70%
Manny Pina 1% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cheslor Cuthbert 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Tony Abreu 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Christian Colon 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Irving Falu 2% 0% 0% 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Cody Clark 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Eric Duncan 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Derrick Robinson 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 94%
Mario Lisson 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3%
Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1
Joakim Soria 52% 91% 92% 19% 79%
Jonathan Broxton 33% 78% 94% 1% 84%
Louis Coleman 25% 77% 75% 1% 63%
Greg Holland 24% 78% 81% 0% 86%
Kelvin Herrera 16% 70% 20% 20% 35%
Tim Collins 14% 58% 80% 0% 70%
Blake Wood 8% 54% 11% 0% 83%
Jonathan Sanchez 4% 43% 62% 0% 56%
Jose Mijares 9% 41% 8% 0% 77%
Bruce Chen 1% 26% 4% 2% 45%
Aaron Crow 6% 39% 50% 0% 42%
Luke Hochevar 0% 21% 1% 2% 47%
Felipe Paulino 1% 24% 29% 0% 64%
Jeff Francis 2% 25% 1% 46% 64%
John Lamb 1% 23% 0% 0% 81%
Mike Montgomery 0% 13% 0% 0% 69%
Danny Duffy 1% 15% 19% 0% 33%
Jeremy Jeffress 3% 25% 7% 0% 79%
Nathan Adcock 1% 14% 0% 1% 69%
Luis Mendoza 2% 19% 0% 1% 83%
Vin Mazzaro 0% 8% 0% 0% 62%
Zach Miner 0% 8% 2% 0% 47%
Jake Odorizzi 0% 4% 1% 0% 27%
Everett Teaford 0% 4% 0% 0% 14%
Sean O'Sullivan 0% 1% 0% 3% 31%
Noel Arguelles 0% 1% 0% 3% 43%
Ryan Verdugo 0% 1% 12% 0% 36%
Will Smith 0% 0% 0% 1% 29%
Jeff Suppan 0% 3% 0% 4% 32%
Kevin Pucetas 0% 1% 0% 0% 31%
Chris Dwyer 0% 0% 0% 0% 39%
Tommy Hottovy 0% 3% 1% 0% 28%
Timothy Melville 0% 0% 0% 0% 26%
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
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Astros
Cardinals
Dodgers
Twins
Giants
Mariners
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Tigers
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Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees
Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 13, 2012 at 04:11 PM | 31 comment(s)
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1. The Hal Lanier Hitting Academy Posted: January 13, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4036458)no.
A 1b, Charlie Grimm did it (94) back in 1918/1936, his batting averages (career .290) may have fooled a few people, plus pre 1920s 1B had a different job description, he was a bit of a throwback/holdover.
Other than that you got BJ Surhoff, although he almost caught as many games as he played in left... and I'm opretty sure that once out form behind the plate... yes, his tOPS+ for laying left was 111, RF 116, his career OPS+ was 98, so he was around 110 when he was a corner OF.
Buckner 99 (more games at 1b than corner OF)
Garrett Anderson 102
Also I am surprised by how low the numbers on Tony Abreu are. He hit 292/335/429 in AAA last year while increasing his BB% and decreasing his K%, and his OPS+ went down 15 points when compared to last year's projections.
I'm slightly optimistic with these projections. No real terrible hitters, even the rookies/second year guys aren't overwhelmed. No huge regression from Franceour or Gordon.
The pitching is bad, but it doesn't seem groin-grabbingly bad in the rotation. Just five below average guys who should all be back of the rotation guys, but that's an upgrade from 6-7 years ago when the rotation was filled with guys who should have been in the PCL. And the bullpen looks good. I don't think 75 wins is out of the question at all, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the break through that on up to 80 wins or so.
If they're all healthy, and match predictions, they'll be (as you note) bad, but not soul-crushingly so. The problem is that there's almost no chance they'll all be healthy, and so you'll have to dig down a lot deeper than the top 5. Going by ZIPS inning predictions, you have to get all the way down the list to Danny Duffy before you get to the roughly 1000 innings that they'll need from their starting rotation this year.
I'm surprised Sanchez doesn't project to league average, though I guess I'm still remembering him as the guy who led the league in H/9 in 2010.
????
He hit 292/335/429 in the PCL
The league hit .286/.359/.448
relative to league that's easily the worst he's hit in the minors, the mle on that is likely .240/.280/.325
and given what he hit in Arizona in 2010 its been almost 2 years since he's hit a lick anywhere
Lough is a bit of a head-scratcher to me, as he Zipped at 86+ last year, and posted a better 2011 season than 2010, only to fall to 79+. I guess ZiPS is penalizing him for ARL?
I'll take the over on Cain, but can understand why he projects as low as he does.
I'd be curious to see Myers' comps, if he has any (having not played above AA). Statistically speaking, he lost a lot of steam with his 2011 regular season performance.
Crow and Collins both look low to me. Crow has been discussed earlier. Collins had 106+ ZiP last year, and then posted 113+ in MLB, only to fall this year. He was also just 21 in MLB last year, so I would expect some ARL help there.
While having this much youth is tough to predict, I would bet the over on 75 wins in 2012, given the relative weakness of the division.
I think even Dan admits you should take innings projections with a grain of salt.
Even if the top five guys get hurt (and they certainly will) the Royals have to have about the smallest gap between their #1-5 and #6-10 in the league (probably Aaron Crow/Danny Duffy/Mike Montgomery/Vin Mazzaro/Luis Mendoza). Heck even after that Sean O'Sullivan and Everett Teaford are going to be better than the shlock some teams throw out. Yea, the Royals don't really have anything higher than a #5 starter, but they won't throw anyone out there that will be totally embarrassing either. And who knows, maybe Paulino shows 2011 wasn't a fluke or Monty or Crow or Duffy shows some real upside this year.
We only have one year of data on Werner Park in Omaha, but it's looking like it might be a good home run park; Cain hit 10 of his 16 there a year ago, and Dan's park factors give it a 1.04 HR factor. Dan, are you remembering that the park just opened last year?
-- MWE
And I'd never heard of Joe Vosmik before. Strange career. And involved in a great "name" trade:
Vosmik, Oral Hildebrand and Bill Knickerbocker for Ivy Andrews, Lyn Lary and Moose Solters.
And ZiPS doesn't think Chen is going to be the next Jamie Moyer. Darn.
Heh, pretty good one.
My wife wants to know if Sluggerrr is above or below the LEAGUE AVERAGE line for mascots.
I did! Because of the uncertainty of new parks (as you know, the accuracy of one-year factors is like using a trebuchet and an object of unknown weight), I use neutral for years we don't have.
The rotation looks like a long list of back-end starters. With such a long list of players with comparable talent, you hope somebody will step forward and separate themselves from the field. Failing that, you hope they'll pitch well enough to stick around in most games.
I'd say the upside is a young team that shows flashes of contending, with maybe a couple of fixable weak spots. Downside is a team that is subtly but noticeably below average. It'll be an interesting summer.
And Lough has a secretary named Gordon ...
Chuck Lamar syndrome, though Moore has gotten better results faster with the farm system.
So you could kinda say he's John Schuerholz, without all the onfield success.
Lough is supposed to be 264/305/385, OPS+ 87, comps Brian Kowitz, Eddie Milner, Jim Wawruck and will be on the final disk/spreadsheet correctly.
Yep. Did that same thing.
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