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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, February 06, 2012

2012 ZiPS Projections - Miami Marlins

The Marlins, thanks to Loria actually investing some money back into the team (though partially by virture of taxpayer subsidization, an issue we won't touch here), are a serious threat in the NL Wild Card race and their chances of winning the division, while on the long side, are legitimate - the Phillies don't have an unassailable roster and there are some downside scenarios that give real openings to the rest of the East.

What puts the Marlins a little behind the Braves is that while they have a really solid roster, there's also a certain lack of depth that can make back luck hit the team a little harder. The Braves have enough arms at AAA to cobble together a better-than-replacement level rotation if they lost all their major leaguers, while the Marlins don't. As a whole, the Marlins don't have a lot of major league-ready talent that can fill-in here or there and while there are lower-level prospects with upside, the trade value thins out quickly after Christian Yelich. Still a solid team, however, but it won't be a walk to the playoffs by any stretch.

Next Up: Texas Rangers, Oakland A's, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Mike Stanton      R    RF   22   .267 .361 .549 156 546  87 146  33   5  37  97  76 169   6   4  140
Jose Reyes        B    SS   29   .302 .353 .471 118 497  78 150  28  13  10  46  40  50  33   8  119
Hanley Ramirez    R    3B   28   .283 .365 .459 132 501  88 142  27   2  19  74  60  94  30  11  119
Logan Morrison    L    LF   24   .261 .360 .456 133 491  71 128  31   7  17  74  74 105   3   3  117
Gaby Sanchez      R    1B   28   .270 .348 .436 146 525  69 142  31   1  18  73  61  91   6   1  109
Chris Coghlan     L    CF   27   .264 .335 .392 118 462  69 122  27   4   8  42  45  85  13   7   94
Omar Infante      R    2B   30   .282 .324 .383 130 472  52 133  20   5   6  47  30  58   4   3   89
Bryan Petersen    L    CF   26   .259 .334 .379 144 483  61 125  23   4   9  39  52 112  12   7   91
Emilio Bonifacio  B    SS   27   .263 .326 .347 146 524  76 138  21   7   3  34  50 120  31  10   81
Donnie Murphy     R    SS   29   .226 .287 .428  55 159  23  36  10   2   6  22  11  44   0   0   89
Terry Tiffee      B    1B   33   .269 .295 .399  57 223  26  60  15   1   4  22   8  30   0   1   84
John Buck         R    C    31   .239 .309 .391 114 381  39  91  17   1  13  52  35 105   0   1   86
Alex Romero       L    RF   28   .258 .314 .353 121 400  46 103  20   3   4  43  28  59   6   3   79
Kyle Jensen       R    LF   24   .232 .296 .380 129 482  49 112  19   2  16  59  41 174   3   0   80
Jorge Padilla     R    RF   32   .263 .325 .342 112 377  48  99  16   1   4  31  30  69  10   6   79
Matt Dominguez    R    3B   22   .244 .305 .375 148 544  59 133  31   2  12  75  41 106   0   2   81
Greg Dobbs        L    3B   33   .250 .293 .364 114 280  27  70  14   0   6  31  17  57   1   0   75
Scott Cousins     L    RF   27   .234 .287 .372 105 312  41  73  14   4   7  36  23  89   9   4   75
Josh Kroeger      L    CF   29   .237 .299 .359 110 409  46  97  21   1   9  47  33  74  11   6   76
Aaron Rowand      R    CF   34   .236 .290 .370 114 373  45  88  19   2   9  36  19  97   3   3   75
Mike Cervenak     R    1B   35   .250 .289 .360 119 436  47 109  22   1   8  47  20  66   2   2   73
Chris Aguila      R    RF   33   .221 .284 .370 117 411  43  91  20   1  13  43  34 133   5   2   74
Donovan Solano    R    2B   24   .250 .288 .336 135 440  47 110  25   2   3  34  22  75   3   0   67
Luke Montz        R    C    28   .210 .301 .347 103 352  38  74  18   0  10  47  44 112   3   2   73
Cole Armstrong    L    C    28   .235 .289 .354  84 277  27  65  15   0   6  29  21  69   0   1   71
Gil Velazquez     R    SS   32   .243 .290 .335 112 382  41  93  17   3   4  29  24  74   8   3   67
Austin Kearns     R    LF   32   .220 .326 .323  80 232  28  51  10   1   4  19  31  71   1   2   75
Brett Hayes       R    C    28   .229 .276 .356  73 205  23  47  11   0   5  21  13  58   1   1   68
Orlando Mercado   R    C    27   .240 .306 .313  88 288  31  69  12   0   3  30  28  51   1   2   67
Alfredo Amezaga   B    SS   34   .232 .296 .304  66 194  20  45   9   1   1  23  16  38   2   1   61
Shawn Bowman      R    3B   27   .218 .263 .350  97 357  36  78  16   2   9  30  19 123   2   2   63
Ramon Vazquez     L    2B   35   .229 .302 .295  74 227  23  52  10   1   1  23  23  50   1   1   61
Kevin Mattison    L    CF   26   .208 .276 .306 129 509  67 106  16   8   6  35  39 163  31  11   56
Clint Sammons     R    C    29   .206 .272 .325  61 194  21  40   8   0   5  22  16  51   3   1   59
Nick Green        R    SS   33   .216 .267 .323 112 384  36  83  21   1   6  40  22  97   2   3   58
Chris Gutierrez   R    SS   28   .208 .303 .270 115 400  46  83  16   3   1  31  52 121   4   2   56

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Mike Stanton                                                 VG/111  PO/113  VG/120
Jose Reyes                                            AV/94
Hanley Ramirez                               AV/107   FR/89
Logan Morrison                FR/98                          PO/105
Gaby Sanchez                  AV/91          PO/123
Chris Coghlan                         FR/94  FR/102           FR/88   FR/71
Omar Infante                          AV/88  VG/105  VG/108  AV/110  FR/108  AV/108
Bryan Petersen                                                AV/73  AV/112   AV/73
Emilio Bonifacio                     FR/112  AV/104  FR/107   AV/98  FR/121  AV/105
Donnie Murphy                        AV/114  AV/100   AV/97
Terry Tiffee                 FR/105  PO/101   AV/91
John Buck                FR
Alex Romero                                                   FR/94  FR/133  FR/123
Kyle Jensen                  FR/112                          FR/163          FR/163
Jorge Padilla                AV/119                           AV/81  PO/156  FR/185
Matt Dominguez                                VG/94
Greg Dobbs                   AV/110          FR/107           FR/95          FR/110
Scott Cousins                                                 VG/88  VG/111   VG/84
Josh Kroeger                 AV/126                          FR/108   PO/83  FR/108
Aaron Rowand                                                 VG/109   VG/56  VG/117
Mike Cervenak                 FR/98          PO/106          FR/106          PO/108
Chris Aguila                                                 AV/121  FR/121  AV/111
Donovan Solano                       VG/110   AV/90  PO/126
Luke Montz               VG  FR/107          FR/118          FR/112
Cole Armstrong           AV
Gil Velazquez                AV/114   FR/88   AV/94  FR/108  AV/119
Austin Kearns                                                FR/108   PO/97   AV/82
Brett Hayes              AV  AV/118
Orlando Mercado          AV  AV/109          PO/117
Alfredo Amezaga               AV/85   FR/85   FR/85   AV/85  AV/100  AV/135
Shawn Bowman                 AV/105          AV/134
Ramon Vazquez                        AV/100   PO/93  PO/103
Kevin Mattison                                               VG/104  VG/134  VG/101
Clint Sammons            VG                  PO/115
Nick Green                            FR/98  AV/103  FR/121  FR/109  FR/117  FR/115
Chris Gutierrez                      AV/105  VG/105  AV/105

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Josh Johnson      R      28     2.66     8    3   20   20   128.7  108   38    7   35  123   151
Anibal Sanchez    R      28     3.67    11    8   29   29   174.3  164   71   15   63  159   110
Mark Buehrle      L      33     3.69    11    9   27   27   178.0  186   73   17   40  100   109
Javier Vazquez    R      35     3.75    11    9   27   26   161.0  148   67   19   47  147   107
Carlos Zambrano   R      31     4.20     8    8   27   23   137.0  133   64   13   64  115    96
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Ricky Nolasco     R      29     4.21    11   11   29   29   181.7  192   85   21   39  152    95
Chad Gaudin       R      29     4.39     5    5   31   11    82.0   83   40    8   35   71    91
Wade LeBlanc      L      27     4.40     9   10   29   28   163.7  168   80   19   55  124    91
Alex Sanabia      R      23     4.44     4    5   20   18    93.3  102   46   11   21   53    91
J.D. Martin       R      29     4.60     5    6   25   18   105.7  115   54   15   25   66    87
Tom Koehler       R      26     5.05     7   10   26   26   132.0  142   74   15   69   93    80
Elih Villanueva   R      25     5.14     7   11   27   27   154.0  179   88   21   50   87    78
Sean West         L      26     5.25     6    9   19   19    97.7  112   57   11   48   66    76
Omar Poveda       R      24     5.58     5    8   26   26   137.0  161   85   19   63   88    72
Brad Hand         L      22     5.61     7   13   29   28   142.7  156   89   22   90   94    72
Robert Ray        R      28     5.69     3    5   14   13    68.0   77   43   11   35   46    71
Mark McLemore     L      31     5.86     2    3    7    6    27.7   32   18    3   19   14    69
Chad James        L      21     5.91     6   12   25   25   120.3  147   79   15   67   80    68
Dallas Trahern    R      26     6.03     3    6   18   13    77.7   98   52    9   40   33    67
Jeff Allison      R      27     6.88     3    9   28   14    87.7  122   67   16   38   34    58

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Heath Bell        R      34     3.02     5    2   61    0    59.7   50   20    4   23   62   133
Randy Choate      L      36     3.55     2    1   63    0    33.0   28   13    3   15   34   113
Edward Mujica     R      28     3.58     6    4   63    0    75.3   70   30   10   15   68   112
Jose Ceda         R      25     3.62     3    2   50    0    54.7   46   22    5   28   61   111
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Juan Oviedo       R      28     3.76     4    3   69    0    64.7   59   27    8   23   60   107
Steven Cishek     R      26     3.92     4    3   53    0    66.7   62   29    4   34   55   103
Ryan Webb         R      26     3.92     4    4   62    0    66.7   68   29    5   25   47   103
Michael Dunn      L      27     3.96     4    4   61    0    63.7   52   28    6   44   73   101
Chris Hatcher     R      27     4.08     1    1   35    0    35.3   33   16    4   17   33    99
Beau Jones        L      25     4.31     2    2   42    1    62.7   59   30    5   37   55    93
Rob Delaney       R      27     4.42     5    6   59    0    73.3   74   36    9   29   58    91
Daniel Jennings   L      25     4.53     3    4   44    0    55.7   57   28    4   33   44    89
Todd Doolittle    R      29     4.66     3    3   26    3    48.3   50   25    6   23   40    86
Peter Andrelczyk  R      26     4.70     5    6   46    1    67.0   69   35    7   35   53    85
Arquimedes CaminerR      25     4.80     1    2   22    0    30.0   29   16    3   24   29    84
Sandy Rosario     R      26     4.83     3    4   53    0    69.0   75   37    8   29   54    83
Evan Reed         R      26     4.93     1    1   31    0    34.7   36   19    3   23   28    81
Chris Sampson     R      34     5.00     3    4   33    8    72.0   86   40    8   20   39    80
Mariano Gomez     L      29     5.09     3    4   27    1    40.7   44   23    4   22   23    79
Adalberto Mendez  R      30     5.28     3    5   29    9    73.3   78   43    9   46   57    76
Ramon Benjamin    L      25     5.80     3    5   40    0    54.3   60   35    7   42   40    69

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Jose Reyes           .290  .337  .431  2218  9442  1441  2736   471   153   186   871   677   927   608   103
Mike Stanton         .261  .365  .517  2629  9051  1435  2363   522    85   541  1564  1410  2638    94   133
Hanley Ramirez       .286  .360  .458  2061  7946  1345  2271   450    42   279  1047   865  1332   427   116
Logan Morrison       .252  .353  .438  1736  6440   888  1622   392    94   207   907   978  1334    35   111
Omar Infante         .275  .317  .383  1601  5558   633  1528   249    54    82   546   349   773    66    87
Aaron Rowand         .267  .324  .424  1597  5156   705  1377   307    21   153   610   298  1104    73    94
Gaby Sanchez         .265  .341  .420  1340  4807   591  1273   283    11   147   640   533   753    41   103
Chris Coghlan        .265  .332  .389  1168  4626   675  1226   274    35    76   403   422   780    97    92
John Buck            .238  .302  .397  1458  4871   505  1161   237    15   168   644   388  1217     4    85
Austin Kearns        .252  .348  .409  1122  3730   534   939   194    14   122   502   488   935    32   100

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Mark Buehrle          236  188    0    3.91  589  564     3753 4020 1632  407  870 2085    112
Javier Vazquez        227  216    0    4.19  613  597     3785 3694 1764  496 1060 3357    103
Carlos Zambrano       174  132    0    3.87  497  432     2724 2475 1170  247 1259 2284    110
Ricky Nolasco         144  136    0    4.45  388  370     2303 2464 1137  291  522 1914     92
Josh Johnson          142   72    0    3.04  348  337     2173 1938  734  148  642 1993    134
Anibal Sanchez        133  115    0    3.83  385  384     2273 2197  966  213  877 2002    106

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Mike Stanton      RF     62%  23%   9%   5%   2%      Tom Brunansky    Tony Conigliaro       Mark McGwire
Jose Reyes        SS     79%  14%   6%   1%   0%     Carlos Guillen      Rafael Furcal      Jimmy Rollins
Hanley Ramirez    3B     45%  28%  14%   8%   4%          Ken Boyer        Toby Harrah        Ian Kinsler
Logan Morrison    LF     19%  33%  20%  16%  12%           Max West     Mike Stenhouse    Steve DeAngelis
Gaby Sanchez      1B      6%  21%  23%  33%  17%     Ed Kirkpatrick          J.T. Snow         Ryan Garko
Chris Coghlan     CF      6%  13%  28%  32%  21%        Bill Virdon       Mike Kingery        Roy Johnson
Omar Infante      2B      7%  10%  15%  26%  42%       Manny Trillo      Carlos Garcia        Jim Gantner
Bryan Petersen    CF      4%   9%  23%  33%  31%         Jacob Cruz        Rich Becker        Tommy Gregg
Emilio Bonifacio  SS      8%  16%  29%  27%  21%      Jose Vizcaino        Pat Listach      Freddie Patek
Donnie Murphy     SS      9%  14%  27%  28%  22%      Caonabo Cosme     Corey Erickson        Pedro Lopez
Terry Tiffee      1B      0%   1%   2%  10%  86%     Larry Biittner        Glenn Adams       Dusty Wathan
John Buck         C       5%  17%  22%  30%  25%           Al Lopez       Alan Knicely     Kelly Stinnett
Alex Romero       RF      0%   1%   2%   7%  90%         Tim Leiper         Jake Weber     Ricardo Nanita
Kyle Jensen       LF      0%   1%   3%  10%  85%       Eddie Vargas       Joe Vitiello       Josh Bonifay
Jorge Padilla     RF      1%   1%   2%   6%  91%        Gene Clines     Jason Michaels         Jim Eppard
Matt Dominguez    3B      1%   3%   7%  16%  73%    Terry Jorgensen         Gary Scott          Mike Bell
Greg Dobbs        3B      1%   1%   5%  13%  80%          Wes Helms    Mike Pagliarulo         Garth Iorg
Scott Cousins     RF      0%   1%   2%   7%  90%        Jalal Leach        John Skurla     Andy Tomberlin
Josh Kroeger      CF      1%   2%   7%  20%  70%       Phil Dauphin   Jason Fitzgerald      Damon Hollins
Aaron Rowand      CF      0%   1%   4%  16%  79%   Darrell Whitmore       Chad Mottola         Emil Brown
Mike Cervenak     1B      0%   0%   1%   4%  96%       Roberto Pena         Bill Stein         Ray Knight
Chris Aguila      RF      0%   1%   2%   5%  92%   Darrell Whitmore       Jerry Martin      Alan Cockrell
Donovan Solano    2B      0%   1%   2%   7%  90%     Jorge Velandia    Alvaro Espinoza    Joshua Lansford
Luke Montz        C       1%   4%   9%  25%  61%     Jeff Ontiveros        Jeff Mathis         Bill Hayes
Cole Armstrong    C       2%   4%   8%  23%  64%        Craig Tatum   Alberto Castillo   Brandon Marsters
Gil Velazquez     SS      1%   2%   6%  17%  74%        Casey Smith        Jose Olmeda       Leo Durocher
Austin Kearns     LF      0%   1%   1%   3%  95%      Junior Spivey        Dustan Mohr        Chris Sheff
Brett Hayes       C       1%   2%   5%  19%  73%   Brandon Marsters        Chris Curry         Jim Horner
Orlando Mercado   C       0%   1%   3%  12%  84%        Raul Chavez         David Duff       Mike Nickeas
Alfredo Amezaga   SS      0%   1%   4%  11%  84%      Willy Miranda     Chris Petersen    Alfredo Griffin
Shawn Bowman      3B      0%   0%   1%   3%  96%         Aaron Herr    Juan Richardson       Raul Tablado
Ramon Vazquez     2B      0%   1%   1%   4%  94%        Dal Maxvill         Kevin Baez       Jeff Branson
Kevin Mattison    CF      0%   0%   1%   4%  94%        Gary Varsho       Tarrik Brock          Eric Reed
Clint Sammons     C       1%   2%   2%   7%  87%    Paul Chiaffredo          Tom Nieto        Dave Ullery
Nick Green        SS      1%   0%   2%   5%  92%      Pete Mackanin          Ray Oyler         Jason Wood
Chris Gutierrez   SS      0%   0%   0%   3%  96%         Drew Niles    Douglas Bernier       Darrin Duffy

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Josh Johnson      SP      92%     3%     5%     Alejandro Pena    Bret Saberhagen    Scott Sanderson
Heath Bell        RP      62%    33%     5%         Jay Howell      Skip Lockwood         Dave Smith
Randy Choate      RP      34%    42%    24%        Tony Fossas      Trever Miller       Mark Guthrie
Edward Mujica     RP      29%    56%    15%       Bruce Walton      Mark Huismann      Jose Melendez
Jose Ceda         RP      33%    46%    21%       Eric Cammack       Ryan Bukvich       Steve Sharts
Anibal Sanchez    SP      51%    44%     5%        Jim Beattie     Kirk McCaskill    Vicente Padilla
Mark Buehrle      SP      50%    40%    10%        Paul Minner           Jim Kaat         Geoff Zahn
Javier Vazquez    SP      46%    48%     6%        Mark Leiter        Mike Krukow       Mike Mussina
Juan Oviedo       RP      24%    50%    25%       La Marr Hoyt      Brian Sanches          Pete Ladd
Steven Cishek     RP      19%    56%    25%       Mike Schultz       Andy Shipman        Clay Bryant
Ryan Webb         RP      14%    53%    33%     David Wilhelmi    Rafael Montalvo       Daryl Irvine
Michael Dunn      RP      15%    46%    39%      Ricky Pickett        Ron Villone    Armando Almanza
Chris Hatcher     RP      20%    39%    42%      Scott Gentile       Jason Bulger         Jose Veras
Carlos Zambrano   SP      18%    58%    23%           Pat Rapp    Vicente Padilla         Bobby Witt
Ricky Nolasco     SP      17%    60%    23%         David Bush   Dennis Eckersley          Jose Lima
Beau Jones        RP       9%    43%    48%       Brian Snyder      Scott Wiggins     Carlos Vasquez
Chad Gaudin       SP       6%    41%    53%      Steve Shields        Mike LaCoss         Mike Ayers
Wade LeBlanc      SP      11%    58%    31%        Rick Krivda      Glenn Dishman      Lance Painter
Rob Delaney       RP       4%    35%    60%       Rob Stanifer      Joseph Haines     Rick Heiserman
Alex Sanabia      SP      16%    46%    38%     Dave Telgheder      Jose Martinez        Gil Heredia
Daniel Jennings   RP       4%    35%    61%         Gary Wayne       Mike Venafro       Brian Snyder
J.D. Martin       SP      12%    40%    48%    Ryan Hawblitzel        Kris Wilson        Matt Ginter
Todd Doolittle    RP       6%    26%    68%       Bo Donaldson       Rick Luecken       Jesus Colome
Peter Andrelczyk  RP       3%    27%    70% Anastacio Martinez      Jordan DeJong        Steve Hoeme
Arquimedes CaminerRP       8%    29%    64%         Josh Banks         Jeff Smith    Rafael Pimentel
Sandy Rosario     RP       2%    25%    73%      Danny Rueckel   Jamie Brewington       Chris Mabeus
Evan Reed         RP       6%    22%    72%         Jeff Smith       Pete Sikaras       Steve LaRose
Chris Sampson     RP       3%    18%    79%      Jose Bautista          Mark Ross      Mickey Weston
Tom Koehler       SP       1%    26%    73%       Don Robinson        Jared Wells      Brett Roberts
Mariano Gomez     RP       3%    21%    76%        Bryan Clark         Todd Rizzo          Ted Wills
Elih Villanueva   SP       0%    17%    82%          Bill King    Cameron Reimers     Andrew Baldwin
Sean West         SP       1%    17%    82%          Phil Coke      Ben Kozlowski      Charlie Hough
Adalberto Mendez  RP       1%     9%    91%   Jarod Juelsgaard        Steve Green            Ken Ray
Omar Poveda       SP       0%     6%    94%       David Pauley        Jim Johnson         Rick Bauer
Brad Hand         SP       0%     4%    96%        Tom Fischer       Shawn Bryant         Tom Singer
Robert Ray        SP       1%     8%    91%      Chris Beasley    Doug Gogolewski       Kerry Taylor
Ramon Benjamin    RP       0%     4%    96%        Erick Burke        Carmen Cali     Julio Guerrero
Mark McLemore     SP       5%    16%    79%      David Manning         Jim Abbott          Dan Smith
Chad James        SP       0%     3%    97%       Larry Thomas     Bruce Lockhart         Mark Freed
Dallas Trahern    SP       0%     4%    96%       Kevin Hodges        Andy Larkin     Edwardo Sierra
Jeff Allison      SP       0%     0%   100%      Brian Sweeney           Dave Gil    Scott Shoemaker

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Mike Stanton            12%      31%      75%      10%      11%      77%      47%       0%
Jose Reyes              53%      23%      24%       1%      67%       2%      13%      55%
Hanley Ramirez          26%      35%      20%       1%       0%       7%      14%      40%
Logan Morrison           5%      30%      14%       3%      25%       3%       9%       0%
Gaby Sanchez            10%      15%       5%       4%       0%       3%       3%       0%
Chris Coghlan            6%       6%       0%       1%       3%       0%       0%       3%
Omar Infante            24%       3%       1%       0%       7%       0%       1%       0%
Bryan Petersen           4%       6%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%       1%
Emilio Bonifacio         7%       4%       0%       0%      26%       0%       0%      52%
Donnie Murphy            2%       1%       7%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Terry Tiffee            18%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
John Buck                1%       1%       2%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Alex Romero              4%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Kyle Jensen              0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%       0%
Jorge Padilla            7%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Matt Dominguez           1%       1%       1%       5%       2%       1%       0%       0%
Greg Dobbs               4%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Scott Cousins            1%       0%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Kroeger             1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Aaron Rowand             1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Mike Cervenak            2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Aguila             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Donovan Solano           2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Luke Montz               0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Cole Armstrong           2%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Gil Velazquez            2%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       1%
Austin Kearns            1%       9%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brett Hayes              1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Orlando Mercado          1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Alfredo Amezaga          2%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Shawn Bowman             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ramon Vazquez            2%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Kevin Mattison           0%       0%       0%       0%      34%       0%       0%      50%
Clint Sammons            0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Nick Green               0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Gutierrez          0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Josh Johnson              82%        94%        72%        22%        98%
Heath Bell                54%        90%        88%         2%        94%
Randy Choate              34%        67%        77%         2%        79%
Edward Mujica             23%        76%        53%        78%        38%
Jose Ceda                 26%        73%        93%         0%        75%
Anibal Sanchez            17%        79%        55%         0%        83%
Mark Buehrle              20%        70%         2%        55%        76%
Javier Vazquez            12%        74%        58%        10%        49%
Juan Oviedo               18%        61%        64%         4%        52%
Steven Cishek             19%        69%        29%         0%        95%
Ryan Webb                 10%        53%         4%         2%        87%
Michael Dunn              11%        54%        97%         0%        67%
Chris Hatcher             20%        48%        55%         1%        71%
Carlos Zambrano            3%        42%        27%         0%        74%
Ricky Nolasco              2%        41%        25%        57%        50%
Beau Jones                 6%        44%        42%         0%        82%
Chad Gaudin                4%        34%        35%         0%        68%
Wade LeBlanc               1%        30%         7%         1%        47%
Rob Delaney                3%        27%        15%         1%        46%
Alex Sanabia               3%        35%         0%        54%        43%
Daniel Jennings            4%        32%        16%         0%        88%
J.D. Martin                3%        25%         1%        46%        32%
Todd Doolittle             3%        25%        28%         1%        51%
Peter Andrelczyk           2%        24%        14%         0%        57%
Arquimedes Caminer         8%        27%        62%         0%        66%
Sandy Rosario              1%        21%        14%         0%        62%
Evan Reed                  3%        20%        22%         0%        73%
Chris Sampson              2%        18%         1%        27%        55%
Tom Koehler                0%         6%         2%         0%        55%
Mariano Gomez              2%        18%         2%         0%        74%
Elih Villanueva            0%         3%         0%         2%        26%
Sean West                  0%         4%         1%         0%        56%
Adalberto Mendez           0%         5%        13%         0%        50%
Omar Poveda                0%         1%         0%         0%        28%
Brad Hand                  0%         0%         0%         0%        17%
Robert Ray                 0%         2%         3%         0%        25%
Ramon Benjamin             0%         3%         9%         0%        50%
Mark McLemore              1%         9%         1%         0%        64%
Chad James                 0%         0%         1%         0%        40%
Dallas Trahern             0%         1%         0%         0%        63%
Jeff Allison               0%         0%         0%         0%        12%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
Diamondbacks
Indians
Nationals
Blue Jays
Rays
Royals
Reds
Brewers
Orioles
Rockies
Braves
Astros
Cardinals
Dodgers
Twins
Giants
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 06, 2012 at 02:39 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Moe Greene Posted: February 06, 2012 at 02:48 PM (#4054758)
Something weird's going on with the output for pitchers. Looks like all pitchers are listed as both starters and relievers, and the league average lines are at the bottoms of both lists.

Also: Poor Jeff Allison. :(
   2. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: February 06, 2012 at 03:01 PM (#4054775)
This sounds nuts, but I think Mike Stanton will be the next player to crack the 60HR threshold, and I wouldn't be shocked if he does it in the next few years. Something about him screams "McGwire in his prime" to me. Of course, this all depends on how the Marlins park plays.
   3. Al Kaline Trio Posted: February 06, 2012 at 03:15 PM (#4054786)
Do you guys think that the Marlins would have been better with Pujols rather than Reyes? I guess it probably depends on Reyes health and if Pujols is robotic or just really good.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: February 06, 2012 at 03:47 PM (#4054825)
The Braves have enough arms at AAA to cobble together a better-than-replacement level rotation if they lost all their major leaguers, while the Marlins don't.

Yeah, they've only got 25 above-average starting pitchers. :-)

(This comment will make no sense after Dan fixes whatever is wrong with the ERA+s; maybe the Marlins new park factor isn't really 1000 :-)

And Stanton is a god! When both ZiPS and I look at a guy with a ridiculously high K rate and say "damn this guy is good" -- well, don't think it's ever happened before.
   5. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: February 06, 2012 at 04:01 PM (#4054840)
Do you guys think that the Marlins would have been better with Pujols rather than Reyes? I guess it probably depends on Reyes health and if Pujols is robotic or just really good.


I don't think there is any doubt they would have been. Reyes feels like an awfully big risk given his injury history and the way those injuries run the very real risk of robbing him of his primary asset moving forward.
   6. Al Kaline Trio Posted: February 06, 2012 at 04:11 PM (#4054851)
#5 I guess I meant more this year which includes pushing Ramirez to 3rd. I agree Pujols is a safer bet longterm.
   7. SG Posted: February 06, 2012 at 04:15 PM (#4054855)
I don't think there is any doubt they would have been.


I'm not so sure. Pujols is probably worth about 30 runs more per season than Reyes on offense, although obviously Reyes has the worse track record when it comes to health. I don't know how bad Gaby Sanchez would be at 3B, but it wouldn't surprise me if the defensive alignment they have now (Sanchez at 1B, Infante at 2B, Reyes at SS and Hanley at 3B) is 20 runs better than the alignment they'd have with Pujols at 1B, Infante at 2B, Hanley at SS and Sanchez at 3B. So are you better off being 10 runs worse overall (30 runs worse offensively and 20 runs better defensively) with the money that you saved by spending on Reyes instead of Pujols?
   8. AROM, Instagram Gangsta Posted: February 06, 2012 at 04:37 PM (#4054869)
Do you guys think that the Marlins would have been better with Pujols rather than Reyes?


Seems obvious that they would be, simply because Pujols is the greater player. Any team-specific concerns can usually be addressed by trade (if you think Sanchez would not be able to handle 3B, then trade him for someone who could).
   9. Misirlou has S.C.M.O.D.S Posted: February 06, 2012 at 04:59 PM (#4054891)
And Stanton is a god! When both ZiPS and I look at a guy with a ridiculously high K rate and say "damn this guy is good" -- well, don't think it's ever happened before.


I dunno. What would ZiPS say about a young Reggie Jackson or Mike Schmidt. Stanton's age 21 season is pretty similar to Reggie's age 22.
   10. JPWF1313 Posted: February 06, 2012 at 05:16 PM (#4054913)
Stanton's comps:

Bruno: never put up a 141 OPS+, 130 (at age 21) was his peak, Bruno also hit .332/.430/.633 in AAA (PCL) at age 20.
Awhile back a Twin fan mentioned that Bruno had always been an underachieving flameout, I replied that to me that was odd, Bruno had always seemed to be an overachiever who simply persevered and produced despite a seeming lack of raw talent... looking at BBREF I think the Twinkies fan's take is more right.

I really hope that Stanton does not take the Bruno career path, pluses are that he's not that similar IMHO, he's better- more raw power for one thing, he also Ks a lot more, as a hitter he's more like a Dave Kingman who walks more (Kingman was a better hitter than Brunansky BTW, 3 years OPS+ over Bruno's top, a 9 point career advantage, a Kingman who both walks and is not a roving defensive catastrophe would be a good player, better than Bruno anyway)

Tony C.? I can see that, of course Tony C has limited value as a projection data point.

Mark McGwire? I can see that too.
   11. Jim Wisinski Posted: February 06, 2012 at 05:26 PM (#4054924)
Mike Stanton's career line: HOF? Seems like it to me assuming that VG defense ages normally
   12. Something Other Posted: February 06, 2012 at 06:28 PM (#4054979)
Do you guys think that the Marlins would have been better with Pujols rather than Reyes? I guess it probably depends on Reyes health and if Pujols is robotic or just really good.
Neither has any chance of coming close to the $$ value of the deal, so I'd rather have Reyes. Where he'll fall 30m short Pujols will fall 90m short.

Even so, the Reyes contract is a bad one. He had a BABIP adjusted 3.9 WAR 2011 season, and was worth that, total, for 2009 and 2010. He's close to the point where he shouldn't be playing SS any more.
   13. Heinie Mantush (Krusty) Posted: February 06, 2012 at 08:25 PM (#4055048)

Even so, the Reyes contract is a bad one. He had a BABIP adjusted 3.9 WAR 2011 season, and was worth that, total, for 2009 and 2010. He's close to the point where he shouldn't be playing SS any more.


What of Reyes' 06-08 stretch? He averaged 6 WAR. It's reasonable to say that Reyes lost '09 (injury) and down '10 (not fully recovered) are not representative of his performance when right. Moreover, Reyes is only 28 this coming season. I don't think Reyes is a great bet on the back half of this deal, but I think he'll deliver in the near-term.
   14. Walt Davis Posted: February 06, 2012 at 09:56 PM (#4055108)
FYI Dan -- these projections not showing on the front page.

I dunno.

I meant I dunno if ZiPS and I have both viewed such a player as good which, naturally, only covers what I assume the rest of you refer to as the Walt-ZiPS era.

Of course that may be because I never like ultra-high K players. :-)

And Schmidt and Jackson didn't K at anything like these rates. Other than Rob Deer, Swish Nicholson and maybe a couple of others, nobody K'd at these sorts of rates until the last 20 years or so. Reggie is the only HoFer with a K-rate worse than 1 per 4 AB. McGwire would have joined him, Thome will and Sosa probably won't. Edmonds is also a serious HoF contender. Thome has a slightly worse K-rate than Stanton's career projection. ZiPS probably liked Thome at 22 (big age-21 year at AA-AAA followed by huge AAA and ML year at 22).

If you look at guys with at least 1 K per 3.5 AB through age 22 (min 500 PA) you get a list of often good but not often great players -- well, mostly too soon to tell.

Stanton
Dunn -- not looking that good
Reggie
Monday
Hisle
Upton I and II -- Justin could be great, BJ only looking good
Danny Walton
Incaviglia
Snider
Wily Mo
Sosa -- had a nice peak :-)
Andujar Cedeno (yikes!)
Benji Gil (double yikes!)

Of course to even get a shot in the majors at that age with that K-rate you have to crush the ball when you hit it so it's generally a quite talented bunch. Now, 2 HoFers (counting Sosa) out of 14 ain't bad odds.

Mike Stanton's career line: HOF? Seems like it to me assuming that VG defense ages normally

See last year's Jason Heyward discussion. Close call -- 10,000 PA, low 130s OPS+ is about the historical borderline for a corner OF. 500+ HR and 1500+ RBI should put him on the right side of that border.

For example, McGriff has just over 10,000 PA and a 134 OPS+ and not getting much attention but Billy Williams at 133 is in. Al Simmons and Zack Wheat (VC) are in while Dwight Evans and presumably Bobby Abreu are out. Sosa is also in this group. (Reggie was 139 in nearly 11,500 PA so he's 1-2 steps above that Stanton projection.) The Evans and Abreu situations suggest the defense might not matter much.

Note, many folks in the "roughly 10,000 PA and 130ish OPS+" are the 3000 hit/high BA guys (Carew, Gwynn, Clemente, Waner) so not good comps for Stanton, Simmons and Wheat had nearly 3000 hits too. Mainly the conclusion you draw from that list is that McGriff is getting screwed.

   15. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: February 06, 2012 at 10:32 PM (#4055139)
Reyes is projected for 608 career steals. I have to assume that makes him the leader in these ZiPS projections.

That'd be good for 14th all-time, post-1900, right between Otis Nixon and Maury Wills.
   16. Misirlou has S.C.M.O.D.S Posted: February 06, 2012 at 11:08 PM (#4055157)
If you look at guys with at least 1 K per 3.5 AB through age 22 (min 500 PA) you get a list of often good but not often great players -- well, mostly too soon to tell.

Stanton
Dunn -- not looking that good
Reggie
Monday
Hisle
Upton I and II -- Justin could be great, BJ only looking good
Danny Walton
Incaviglia
Snider
Wily Mo
Sosa -- had a nice peak :-)
Andujar Cedeno (yikes!)
Benji Gil (double yikes!)


Well, he only reason Schmidt isn't on the list is that he had only 40 PA through age 22. Through age 24, he fits in nicely, and that doesn't count his 180 K season at age 25.

I'm not saying that he's going to be Reggie or Schmidt, but Dave Kingman with walks and a glove is a damned fine player.
   17. Walt Davis Posted: February 07, 2012 at 01:02 AM (#4055227)
Fair point on Schmidt. From that perspective the difference between Schmidt and Stanton is PA. I screwed up a bit as Stanton of course is entering his age 22 season, not leaving it. Schmidt did K a ton at 23 but he was 1 per 4 AB at 24 ... then K'd a ton at 25 as you note then back to about 1 per 4. That's a fair amount of variation in K-rate so I'm reluctant to guesstimate what Schmidt's "true" K-rate was. Stanton's already got 1000 ML PA and the K-rate has been consistently high so I've got a bit more confidence where his true rate is at the moment. Obviously he might lower the K-rate over the next couple of years -- if so, he's a true monster.

But given he's already got those 1000 PA and will likely have 1600 by the time Schmidt had 40, it's reasonable to think he's got a decent shot at being a better hitter than Schmidt. He certainly projects better -- Schmidt was quite awful in his half-season at AA at 21.

I'm actually sort of surprised Stanton doesn't project to a higher career OPS+. He had a 141 last year and is projected to 140 this year which I assume would peak a little bit around 27 (say 150) and stay there through his early 30s then decline. I guess I'd have thought ZiPS would project him to about 12-14 years of 140+ meaning it would take a pretty ugly 6-8 years after that to get the average down to 133.

By the way, if I do that list properly (500+ PA, at least 1 K per 3.5 AB, ages 20-21) the list is just Stanton, J Upton and Canseco. High-K young guys just aren't going to break through very often. The raw Stanton/Upton numbers are quite close but Stanton has him by 12 OPS+ points.

MS 997 PA, 261/344/525, 132 OPS+
JU 1005 PA, 280/361/505, 120 OPS+

Drop it to 400 PA and you pick up Strawberry, a quite close comp (except for the whole handedness thing).
   18. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: February 07, 2012 at 01:36 AM (#4055233)
What's with Trahern's comps? Is there a joke I'm missing?
   19. Voros McCracken of Pinkus Posted: February 07, 2012 at 01:57 AM (#4055237)
Walt you have two competing concepts on k-rate that have to dealt with:

1) Concept 1 are the direct effects of k-rate itself. On this your comparisons are sound, a 1-in-3 k-rate is a 1-in-3 k-rate regardless.
2) What that k-rate says about the player's underlying abilities. For this the k-rates of guys like Stanton need to be put in context, and in context Schmidt struck out a ton more than Stanton. Not a lot of guys have succeeded with Stanton's k-rate, but until the 1960s nobody had those kind of k-rates including pitchers.

I'm convinced that there are positive aspects of hitting associated with higher strikeout rates that go beyond mere selection bias, particularly since there appears to be negative aspects of low strikeout rates that shouldn't be affected much by selection bias. If Mike Stanton strikes out a lot, it could be because he's a terrible hitter. But it's pretty clear he's not a terrible hitter. So he probably strikes out a lot due to a combination of several things, most of which are designed to result in hitting the ball as hard as possible when he does hit it.

The negative aspects for the future with high k-rates are known: BABIP regresses much more severely than k-rate, so Stanton's predicted future batting average does drop. But I also believe that predicted future home run rates go up a decent amount, and predicted future BABIP probably goes up very slightly too. Furthermore k-rate does regress some, and does improve as a player ages and so a player with Stanton's k-rate has greater room for improvement there.

I think the end result is that the downside of all of those strikeouts (low future AVG) is mitigated to a large extent (but not entirely) by the positive indicators in other areas.

When I first started doing projections back in the late 90s, I found that not accounting for the positive aspects of high strikeout totals led to less accurate projections and caused me to miss more than I should have on players like Darrin Fletcher and Bobby Abreu.
   20. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 07, 2012 at 01:59 AM (#4055238)
What's with Trahern's comps? Is there a joke I'm missing?

Oops, stopped it in the middle of a recalculation, I think - Hodges is right, but the other two should be Andy Larkin and Edwardo Sierra.
   21. Jim Wisinski Posted: February 07, 2012 at 03:24 AM (#4055249)
See last year's Jason Heyward discussion. Close call -- 10,000 PA, low 130s OPS+ is about the historical borderline for a corner OF. 500+ HR and 1500+ RBI should put him on the right side of that border.

For example, McGriff has just over 10,000 PA and a 134 OPS+ and not getting much attention but Billy Williams at 133 is in. Al Simmons and Zack Wheat (VC) are in while Dwight Evans and presumably Bobby Abreu are out. Sosa is also in this group. (Reggie was 139 in nearly 11,500 PA so he's 1-2 steps above that Stanton projection.) The Evans and Abreu situations suggest the defense might not matter much.

Note, many folks in the "roughly 10,000 PA and 130ish OPS+" are the 3000 hit/high BA guys (Carew, Gwynn, Clemente, Waner) so not good comps for Stanton, Simmons and Wheat had nearly 3000 hits too. Mainly the conclusion you draw from that list is that McGriff is getting screwed.


I think it's the milestone (500+ HR) that really tilts the scales in Stanton's favor, plus the high RBIs and nearly 2400 hits help as well. I don't disagree that defense probably won't be properly valued in Stanton or other corner outfielders cases but where I think it helps him more is that he has the milestones to point to, Abreu and Evans are/will be viewed by many voters as good defenders who didn't do anything special offensively to merit induction. Stanton on the other hand would get highlighted as being a big slugger who was far more than just a bat.

Reyes is projected for 608 career steals. I have to assume that makes him the leader in these ZiPS projections.


My immediate assumption was that Crawford would be higher but his bad year must have killed his career projection, he's 30 behind Reyes. If the site archives worked correctly (I can't seem to go back further than 2 pages in TO archives and a google search for last year's projections turned up the comments without the projections) I would check to see for sure but I assume he would have been higher than 608 pre-2011. After that I was ready to concede your point until I suddenly had a thought. That was proven correct because I give you your ZiPS career projection SB leader with 609: Juan Pierre!
   22. Something Other Posted: February 07, 2012 at 08:01 AM (#4055274)
If the Marlins are smart Reyes's SB days are pretty much behind him. Sure, use his talents to go 15SB-3CS, but for a chronically injured player with leg problems to be aiming for 40-10 makes very, very little sense.
   23. UCCF Posted: February 07, 2012 at 10:49 AM (#4055350)
Tony C.? I can see that, of course Tony C has limited value as a projection data point.

Stanton's 22 this year, the same age Conigliaro was when he got beaned. Let's hope that part of the similarity doesn't hold up.
   24. JPWF1313 Posted: February 07, 2012 at 11:55 AM (#4055439)
By the way, if I do that list properly (500+ PA, at least 1 K per 3.5 AB, ages 20-21) the list is just Stanton, J Upton and Canseco. High-K young guys just aren't going to break through very often.


One problem is that there are not all that many guys with 500+ PAs at those ages to begin with- 213 with 500+ PAs through age 21 (1901 to present), on taht list Mike Stanton's OPS+ of 132 is 18th

The 20 worst k rates (K/pa):
Mike Stanton .290
Jose Canseco .263
Justin Upton .255
Sammy Sosa .252
Rick Monday .243
Freddie Freeman .228
Darrell Porter .225
Miguel Cabrera .225
Andruw Jones .219
Jason Heyward .205
Greg Luzinski .204
Lloyd Moseby .203
Juan Gonzalez .202
Johnny Callison .198
Jimmy Smith .192
Tom Brunansky .189
Rocco Baldelli .187
Delmon Young .186
Sixto Lezcano .185
Tony Conigliaro .185

The real outlier is Jimmy Smith, he did that in the teens, career OPS+ of 63, WAR says he was a putrid fielder as well...
If you rank them by K/bb you get this:
Delmon Young 6.04
Garry Templeton 5.42
Harold Baines 5.42
Sammy Sosa 5.18
Jose Guillen 5.18
Rocco Baldelli 4.92
Jay Johnstone 4.87
Joe Cassidy 4.87
Carl Crawford 4.61
Roberto Clemente 4.54
Orlando Cepeda 4.09
Lloyd Moseby 4.07
Aurelio Rodriguez 3.82
Joe Dugan 3.74
Jose Reyes 3.72
Jack Heidemann 3.58
John Knight 3.58
Juan Gonzalez 3.56
Jimmy Smith 3.55
Ivan Rodriguez 3.49
Rennie Stennett 3.47
Larry Parrish 3.44
Claudell Washington 3.34
Ruben Sierra 3.31
Ozzie Guillen 3.27
Ken Hubbs 3.19
Paul Molitor 3.18
Mike Stanton 3.14
Bob Horner 3.05
Eric Hosmer 3.04

   25. Dangerous Dean Posted: February 07, 2012 at 01:25 PM (#4055571)
Jack Heidemann


Sweet. I know him and his family. Great guy and it was a shame he didn't have more success in the majors.

I am not nearly sabremetric enough to hold my own in a discussion with you fellas. But when I saw Stanton play last year, he reminded me of a right handed Reggie Jackson: tremendous power, lots of whifs and a very atheletic frame.

But when I came here I realized how incredibly young Stanton is. If his age curve is typical, he won't hit his peak for another 4 or 5 years. While he may or may not turn into the next Reggie Jackson, I am eager to watch him grow. I would love it if Stanton has the kind or 3rd season that Reggie enjoyed: 47 HR, .275/.410/.608, 334 total bases

If Stanton does match those numbers, though, I hope it isn't his career peak. Reggie never got close to those numbers again in his long, illustrious career.
   26. Yonder Alonso in misguided trousers (cardinal) Posted: February 07, 2012 at 01:49 PM (#4055605)
When (and, to a lesser extent, why) did Aaron Rowand become a Marlin?
   27. Bob Evans Posted: February 07, 2012 at 02:40 PM (#4055665)
Seeing Mark Buehrle on this was like a dagger in this White Sox fan's heart.
   28. Walt Davis Posted: February 07, 2012 at 04:19 PM (#4055782)
2) What that k-rate says about the player's underlying abilities. For this the k-rates of guys like Stanton need to be put in context, and in context Schmidt struck out a ton more than Stanton.

And here we disagree. K-rate is K-rate. It kills BA and therefore puts an upper limit on how good a guy can be. If Stanton at age 30 is hitting 230 then he maxes out at something like 230/350/530 -- still a damn good hitter but impossible for him to be better than that. I'm guessing this is the future that ZiPS sees.

Jim Thome is the guy who, to an extent, broke the mold. But he did so by being the 2nd greatest on-contact hitter in baseball history (to Ruth). Clearly Thome won't be unique and, of course, nobody needs to be as good as Jim Thome to be an excellent player.

And there aren't positive aspects to strikeouts (other than avoiding DPs). There are, of course, positive aspects to sacrificing contact in exchange for hitting the ball as hard as you can especially if you have a good enough eye to walk a lot and you hit the ball in the air. This is the story of baseball over the last 20 years or so.

Stanton's on-contact BA/SLG are currently 390/780. That's not likely to be sustainable but it's also not hard to see him as, say, 380/760 for some years which isn't going to make a big difference. Point being that, with that K-rate, Stanton is already performing at about the highest possible sustainable level already. There is not a lot of room for growth unless he drops the K-rate. There is a good bit of room to fall and still be a very good player even with that K-rate.

What sets Stanton above some of his fellow young, high-K recent counterparts are (a) massive power -- for these ages, you can only argue that maybe Mathews and Pujols have been more impressive (a fair number have been his equal); (b) high walk rate -- not unique but high power and walks at this young age are a very promising combo; (c) apparently outstanding defense. Stanton does not look like a hitter who will get eaten alive by the Ks (as opposed to, say, Wily Mo Pena who started it all :-) and, with his defense, even if he were to decline to something like a 115 OPS+, he's gonna still be above-average. His absolute downside is something like Rob Deer or Mike Cameron which is not too shabby for an absolute downside.

The drawback is that BA. Among 152 players with 500+ PA at age 21, he's #114 in BA. So, despite the very good walk rate, he's only 48th in OBP. He's not going to be able to improve on that without dropping the K-rate (or becoming the greatest on-contact hitter blah blah blah). At 21, he had a lower OBP than Adrian Beltre. Of recent vintage, he's behind Pujols, Griffey, AROD, Heyward (20-21), J Upton and Cabrera, tied with Castro (20-21) but ahead of Andruw and Sheffield. Of those guys, Upton and Andruw are the best comps for the type of hitter Stanton is right now -- which is nothing to sneeze at but they're clearly 2nd tier in that bunch.

None of which means that K-rate is destiny. Stanton might improve his K-rate as he matures and, if he can do so without sacrificing much power, then he might move into Miguel Cabrera territory (hard to see him ever hitting 330).

Anyway, I'd love for Dan to post his full career projection. It does seem to me that ZiPS can't be seeing much growth from his current point or ZiPS must be seeing a fairly dramatic (but long-lasting?) decline. But maybe I'm wrong on that.
   29. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 07, 2012 at 04:29 PM (#4055794)
Anyway, I'd love for Dan to post his full career projection. It does seem to me that ZiPS can't be seeing much growth from his current point or ZiPS must be seeing a fairly dramatic (but long-lasting?) decline. But maybe I'm wrong on that.

That's pretty much it. ZiPS has his BA peaking in the mid-.270s and only adding a few more homers a year at his best and generally in the high 140s until 31/32 when he starts to drop off steadily.
   30. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 07, 2012 at 04:37 PM (#4055800)
When Reggie Jackson was 22 he had his career high in strikeouts with 171, which was then second all-time. The following year he hit 37 home runs before the All-Star break, and went on to prove that you can have a Hall of Fame career despite peaking at age 23.
   31. Misirlou has S.C.M.O.D.S Posted: February 07, 2012 at 09:16 PM (#4056008)
Al Kaline laughs at those old men peaking at 23.

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