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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, January 03, 2012

2012 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers projections go up and just about the perfect time: after Betancourt is gone, after Ramirez is signed, but before Fielder signs elsewhere. Fielder's a great player, but the Brewers really do have a solid team that can survive even the loss of their best hitter, especially given that the Cardinals are doing the same thing with the loss of their franchise player.

I'm not too thrilled with the way the whole Aramis Ramirez thing worked out. Aramis is probably a better player than Taylor Green in 2012 and I think the Brewers would have been better served going after a shortstop, a position which is a real mess organizationally and was horrific last year thanks to He Who Will Be Not Named Except on a Royals Contract. I've got some more Yuni-bashing ($2 million?) but I'll save that for the Royals thing. Even if you assume that Reyes was too expensive *and* Rollins and Furcal were destined to return to their teams, the team should've probably at least tried to outbid the Phillies or Cardinals. Clint Barmes isn't a great player, but he's solid defensively and I really think he would've been a good fit if the team wasn't confident about landing one of the other shortstops. I don't think Gamel-Weeks-Barmes-Green is a worse infield than Gamel-Weeks-Gonzalez-Ramirez and it would've left an additional chunk of money to go after Roy Oswalt for a very lucrative 1-year deal (a playoff competitive team adding a good player to fill a hole should find it almost impossible to overpay in a 1-year contract because the long tail on the bad side is almost impossible to cripple long-term).

That being said, the Brewers got so little out of a truly embarrassing left side of the infield that Gamel-Weeks-Gonzalez-Ramirez is as good as Fielder-Weeks-Betancourt-McGehee brought last year. That's how awful they were at SS or 3B. While trying to win with terrible players so that you can make up for losing a star easier is an absolutely terrible plan, in this particular case, it gave the Brewers some upside to recover from Fielder's loss in the short-term.

Don't get too excited about Fiers and Estrada projecting so well - they're both projected to a mixed role with a lot of relief innings. As full-time starters, they drop well below Randy Wolf, with Fiers being around Narveson and Estrada being below.

Next Up: Cincinnati Reds

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Prince Fielder    L    1B   28   .281 .405 .539 156 555  89 156  30   1  37 111 107 125   2   1  152
Ryan Braun        R    LF   28   .296 .360 .525 156 608  97 180  39   5  30 107  55 110  22   5  135
Aramis Ramirez    R    3B   34   .278 .340 .476 123 464  65 129  27   1  21  89  39  71   1   1  117
Rickie Weeks      R    2B   29   .260 .350 .460 115 450  74 117  24   3  20  55  51 113  10   3  116
Corey Hart        R    RF   30   .270 .333 .481 139 526  76 142  31   4  24  76  45 119  10   6  116
Mat Gamel         L    1B   26   .264 .341 .433 135 466  57 123  29   1  16  80  51 132   3   2  107
Norichika Aoki    L    CF   30   .289 .338 .393 144 608  82 176  27   9   6  61  38  59  10   6   97
Taylor Green      L    3B   25   .264 .324 .423 152 527  53 139  37   1  15  85  46 105   1   1  100
Caleb Gindl       L    RF   23   .266 .334 .401 148 563  63 150  30   5  12  63  55 112   8   6   97
Jordan Brown      L    LF   28   .270 .303 .403 125 467  51 126  31   2   9  59  22  70   2   1   88
George Kottaras   L    C    29   .239 .316 .401  75 222  26  53  13   1   7  29  26  58   1   1   92
Brendan Katin     R    RF   29   .222 .284 .444  81 284  35  63  17   2  14  45  19  99   1   0   93
Jonathan Lucroy   R    C    26   .254 .313 .375 139 480  49 122  23   1  11  64  41  98   4   1   85
Nyjer Morgan      L    CF   31   .266 .324 .353 128 451  62 120  18   6   3  35  29  80  25  11   83
Carlos Gomez      R    CF   26   .243 .296 .374 127 350  51  85  15   5   7  34  23  89  22   6   80
Felipe Lopez      B    2B   32   .255 .316 .364 119 431  53 110  21   1   8  49  37  86   5   3   83
Zelous Wheeler    R    3B   25   .239 .319 .358 129 464  49 111  24   2   9  55  46 107   9   3   83
Logan Schafer     L    CF   25   .262 .318 .357  94 370  45  97  18   4   3  33  27  60  10   7   82
Sea Bass Gonzalez R    SS   35   .245 .282 .399 131 489  55 120  29   2  14  60  22  98   1   1   81
Eric Farris       R    2B   26   .257 .291 .342 129 514  52 132  21   4   5  43  22  69  25   6   70
Travis Ishikawa   L    1B   28   .231 .306 .365 100 260  32  60  15   1   6  37  26  78   2   2   80
Erick Almonte     R    1B   34   .246 .302 .338 105 305  29  75  14   1   4  34  24  65   2   1   73
Andy Gonzalez     R    SS   30   .230 .309 .326  94 304  30  70  11   0   6  29  33  78   3   1   72
Hainley Statia    B    SS   26   .246 .303 .324  96 321  35  79  16   3   1  37  26  45   5   2   69
Kentrail Davis    L    RF   24   .223 .292 .339 138 542  69 121  24   9   7  55  39 130  18   7   70
Chris Nowak       R    3B   29   .227 .289 .336  79 286  30  65  12   2   5  37  23  74   5   2   68
Martin Maldonado  R    C    25   .230 .296 .332 112 365  36  84  16   0   7  43  26  99   2   2   69
Craig Counsell    L    SS   41   .236 .319 .298  96 161  16  38   5   1   1  14  18  23   1   1   68
Cesar Izturis     B    SS   32   .248 .291 .306  90 278  27  69   9   2   1  23  14  34   8   3   61
Brock Kjeldgaard  R    RF   26   .201 .268 .354 148 542  43 109  22   2  19  67  40 245   8   3   66
Brandon Jones     L    RF   28   .216 .291 .325 101 357  37  77  20   2   5  41  38 100   3   2   66
Edwin Maysonet    R    SS   30   .233 .285 .311 107 373  39  87  18   1   3  34  24  83   2   1   61
Mike Rivera       R    C    35   .202 .274 .314  59 188  19  38   9   0   4  22  16  63   1   1   58
Anderson Machado  B    SS   31   .192 .271 .267  65 172  17  33   8   1   1  17  19  55   2   1   46

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Prince Fielder                FR/91
Ryan Braun                                                    AV/56
Aramis Ramirez                                FR/99
Rickie Weeks                         VG/128
Corey Hart                                                                    AV/78
Mat Gamel                    AV/128          FR/151          FR/113          FR/113
Norichika Aoki                                               AV/100  AV/100  AV/100
Taylor Green                 AV/118   PO/94  AV/110
Caleb Gindl                                                  AV/114  FR/111  FR/164
Jordan Brown                 AV/118                           AV/69          FR/142
George Kottaras          FR
Brendan Katin                                                FR/118          FR/119
Jonathan Lucroy          AV
Nyjer Morgan                                                  EX/85  EX/104  EX/101
Carlos Gomez                                                  VG/78   EX/78   VG/78
Felipe Lopez                 VG/112  FR/114  FR/110  PO/101
Zelous Wheeler                       FR/120   AV/99  PO/142
Logan Schafer                                                 AV/61   AV/75   AV/61
Sea Bass Gonzalez                                     VG/76
Eric Farris                           AV/88          FR/118
Travis Ishikawa               VG/62                          AV/127          AV/127
Erick Almonte                AV/121          PO/110   FR/83                   FR/95
Andy Gonzalez                AV/117  AV/110  FR/108  AV/122  AV/119          AV/120
Hainley Statia                        VG/87          AV/111
Kentrail Davis                                               VG/143  AV/117  VG/143
Chris Nowak                            127/   FR/89          AV/110
Martin Maldonado         VG
Craig Counsell                        VG/82  AV/102   AV/88
Cesar Izturis                         VG/74           VG/63
Brock Kjeldgaard             AV/159                          AV/124  PO/142  AV/131
Brandon Jones                                                VG/101          AV/109
Edwin Maysonet                       VG/101   VG/96  AV/105
Mike Rivera              AV
Anderson Machado             AV/117  FR/116   FR/97  FR/126                  AV/116

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Zack Greinke      R      28     2.98    16    7   31   31   199.0  170   66   17   49  224   136
Yovani Gallardo   R      26     3.46    16    9   32   32   195.3  173   75   20   70  206   117
Shaun Marcum      R      30     3.51    10    6   25   25   151.3  137   59   16   41  129   115
Michael Fiers     R      27     4.01     7    5   27   14    94.3   88   42   12   36   84   101
Marco Estrada     R      28     4.03     5    4   30   11    87.0   83   39   10   28   73   100
Randy Wolf        L      35     4.04    11    8   28   28   178.0  175   80   22   61  120   100
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Chris Narveson    L      30     4.32     9    8   34   22   141.7  140   68   17   56  115    94
Eulogio de la CruzR      28     4.50     5    5   40   15   110.0  109   55   11   58   85    90
Wily Peralta      R      23     4.67     8    8   25   25   135.0  140   70   14   68  105    87
Manny Parra       L      29     4.80     5    6   23   12    80.7   84   43   10   41   71    84
Amaury Rivas      R      26     4.98     8   10   26   25   130.0  140   72   15   67   84    81
Tyler Thornburg   R      23     5.06     7    9   23   23   117.3  110   66   19   79  114    80
Cody Scarpetta    R      23     5.14     7    9   26   26   115.7  121   66   11   78   88    79
Sam Narron        L      30     5.49     5    7   21   18   114.7  147   70   15   34   52    74
Kyle Heckathorn   R      24     5.74     6    9   23   22   109.7  133   70   16   48   63    70
Josh Butler       R      27     5.89     5    9   24   23   113.0  137   74   16   61   64    69
Nicholas Bucci    R      21     6.11     6   10   25   22   119.3  135   81   20   79   78    66
Mark Rogers       R      26     6.21     3    5   21   19    66.7   72   46    9   59   50    65
Chase Wright      L      29     6.44     5    9   26   20   110.3  148   79   16   53   49    63

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
John Axford       R      29     3.07     6    3   62    0    67.3   54   23    5   33   77   132
Francisco RodrigueR      30     3.23     5    2   64    0    64.0   53   23    6   27   72   125
Kameron Loe       R      30     3.61     6    4   70    0    72.3   69   29    7   22   57   112
Zach Braddock     L      24     3.65     1    1   42    0    37.0   29   15    3   22   44   111
Brandon Kintzler  R      27     3.71     2    1   23    0    26.7   25   11    3    7   23   109
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Mark DiFelice     R      35     3.86     2    1   32    0    35.0   33   15    4   11   32   105
Jose Veras        R      31     3.86     4    3   65    0    63.0   52   27    7   34   69   105
Tim Dillard       R      28     3.93     4    3   46    0    68.7   67   30    7   23   53   103
Mike McClendon    R      27     4.01     6    5   45    1    76.3   80   34    6   24   49   101
Marco Estrada     R      28     4.03     5    4   30   11    87.0   83   39   10   28   73   100
Robert W00t3n     R      26     4.24     3    3   58    0    57.3   56   27    6   26   49    96
Dan Meadows       L      24     4.27     6    5   42    1    78.0   75   37   10   30   65    95
Randy Flores      L      36     4.32     3    2   54    0    41.7   42   20    5   15   32    94
Sean Green        R      33     4.44     2    2   45    0    48.7   49   24    4   26   36    91
Robert Hinton     R      27     4.83     3    3   48    0    63.3   65   34    8   33   55    84
Zack Segovia      R      29     5.09     3    4   47    0    63.7   72   36    7   31   42    80
Donovan Hand      R      26     5.18     4    5   43    3    74.7   90   43    9   22   37    78
Mitch Stetter     L      31     5.22     1    1   40    0    29.3   31   17    5   13   25    78
Santo Manzanillo  R      23     5.37     1    1   41    0    55.3   57   33    7   36   42    75

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Ryan Braun           .292  .351  .505  2191  8634  1326  2523   523    65   395  1433   704  1454   246   127
Prince Fielder       .271  .380  .499  2501  9022  1307  2447   484    23   509  1575  1447  1813    25   133
Aramis Ramirez       .279  .336  .483  2331  8769  1180  2446   504    25   412  1546   668  1286    21   111
Rickie Weeks         .253  .343  .426  1714  6650  1076  1683   319    49   244   721   728  1541   159   105
Corey Hart           .268  .326  .466  1651  6127   867  1639   351    51   254   850   485  1276   125   109
Felipe Lopez         .261  .327  .383  1605  5865   780  1530   290    35   118   608   565  1188   139    88
Nyjer Morgan         .275  .333  .358   936  3303   460   907   134    43    18   240   219   554   184    86
Carlos Gomez         .241  .293  .368  1292  3604   519   870   157    43    71   346   224   872   189    77

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Zack Greinke          221  153    1    3.47  543  501     3238 3005 1249  324  819 3316    120
Yovani Gallardo       211  141    0    3.61  457  455     2804 2508 1124  312 1043 2946    113
Randy Wolf            178  159    0    4.22  500  496     3073 3033 1440  396 1104 2292     99
Shaun Marcum          122   89    1    3.86  360  335     2003 1878  860  257  592 1638    106

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Prince Fielder    1B     74%  20%   4%   2%   0%        Boog Powell    Adrian Gonzalez          Norm Cash
Ryan Braun        LF     66%  23%   6%   3%   1%      Matt Holliday          Del Ennis         Hank Bauer
Aramis Ramirez    3B     30%  35%  21%  10%   3%    Brooks Robinson        Mike Lowell      Pinky Higgins
Rickie Weeks      2B     63%  17%  11%   7%   3%         Sean Berry      Junior Spivey       Mike Shannon
Corey Hart        RF     20%  29%  19%  17%  15%      Ben Broussard     Rick Reichardt        Ellis Burks
Mat Gamel         1B      5%  19%  22%  33%  21%        David Ortiz       Adam LaRoche       Mario Valdez
Norichika Aoki    CF      8%  14%  27%  29%  21%      Vic Davalillo         Doc Cramer        Lloyd Waner
Taylor Green      3B      6%  19%  26%  26%  23%       Scott Cooper         Ed Sprague         Roy Howell
Caleb Gindl       RF      3%  10%  13%  22%  54%        Dale Holman       Ryan Sweeney       Andre Ethier
Jordan Brown      LF      0%   2%   6%  17%  75%      Carlos Rivera         Quinn Mack  Carmine Cappuccio
George Kottaras   C      14%  25%  22%  23%  16%      Russ McGinnis         Steve Holm          Mike Rose
Brendan Katin     RF      1%   6%  11%  23%  58%          Juan Diaz         Scott Wade      Chris Hatcher
Jonathan Lucroy   C       4%  17%  25%  34%  20%    Jason Jaramillo         Koyie Hill         Adam Moore
Nyjer Morgan      CF      2%   5%  16%  31%  46%      Willie Wilson      Milt Thompson       Dave Roberts
Carlos Gomez      CF      3%   8%  22%  34%  33%        Jason Repko    Herm Winningham         Tim Raines
Felipe Lopez      2B      4%   5%  10%  21%  60%     Dennis Hocking         Ron Oester         Geoff Blum
Zelous Wheeler    3B      1%   4%   9%  21%  64%   Pedro Castellano     Chris Saunders      Jerry Salzano
Logan Schafer     CF      2%   2%   8%  26%  63%       Pat Sheridan       Jonathan Jay         Rob Butler
Sea Bass Gonzalez SS      4%   9%  19%  29%  39%         Pete Suder     Vinny Castilla        Gary Gaetti
Eric Farris       2B      2%   3%   6%  16%  73%       Chris Wimmer   Jackie Gutierrez       Eider Torres
Travis Ishikawa   1B      0%   1%   2%  12%  84%         Doug Deeds      Howard Prager        Orsino Hill
Erick Almonte     1B      0%   0%   1%   5%  94%       Dusty Wathan    Chris Pritchett         Bill Stein
Andy Gonzalez     SS      2%   2%   8%  21%  67%         Corey Hart        Alex Prieto         Gary Green
Hainley Statia    SS      0%   2%   8%  22%  68%        Joe Morales      Jeff McKnight       John Tamargo
Kentrail Davis    RF      0%   1%   2%   5%  92%        Gary Varsho        Austin Krum    Duane Singleton
Chris Nowak       3B      1%   1%   2%   5%  92%     Chris Petersen        Keith Johns      Jason Camilli
Martin Maldonado  C       2%   3%   6%  18%  72%     Lance Jennings        Pete Beeler       Alvin Colina
Craig Counsell    SS      2%   2%   7%  13%  76%      Mark Belanger      Rene Gonzales        Ski Melillo
Cesar Izturis     SS      0%   1%   3%  11%  85%     Tommy Thevenow      Edgar Caceres    Alfredo Griffin
Brock Kjeldgaard  RF      0%   0%   0%   1%  98%  Willie Magallanes        Juan Thomas      Alan Cockrell
Brandon Jones     RF      0%   0%   0%   1%  99%         John Urick        Brian Brady        Carlos Sosa
Edwin Maysonet    SS      0%   0%   2%   8%  90%         Gary Green     Travis Dawkins     John Hotchkiss
Mike Rivera       C       0%   1%   2%   6%  91%  George Mitterwald      Frank Charles         Joe Oliver
Anderson Machado  SS      0%   1%   1%   2%  96%          Ray Oyler     Pablo Martinez        Steve Jeltz

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Zack Greinke      SP      87%     8%     5%         Andy Benes     Javier Vazquez         Roy Oswalt
John Axford       RP      63%    31%     6%           Jim Kern       Bryan Harvey    Felix Rodriguez
Francisco RodrigueRP      60%    35%     5%    Kyle Farnsworth      Curt Leskanic      Mike Williams
Yovani Gallardo   SP      62%    33%     5%        Brett Myers      Jack McDowell          Bob Welch
Shaun Marcum      SP      59%    36%     5%    Scott Sanderson    Chris Carpenter         Vic Raschi
Kameron Loe       RP      32%    52%    16%    Bobby Chouinard      Brian Meadows       Bruce Walton
Zach Braddock     RP      38%    38%    25%      Darren Oliver        Luke Walker       Dennys Reyes
Brandon Kintzler  RP      37%    36%    28%       Heath Haynes      Mike Connolly      Rusty Meacham
Mark DiFelice     RP      29%    41%    30%          Donn Pall       Todd Worrell        Dave Pavlas
Jose Veras        RP      19%    49%    32%       Dwayne Henry      Frank LaCorte      Mike Williams
Tim Dillard       RP      17%    54%    30%        Jay Tessmer     Matt Whiteside        Colby Lewis
Michael Fiers     SP      30%    52%    18%      Cliff Politte        Paul Moskau     Scott Bankhead
Mike McClendon    RP      18%    51%    31%       John Doherty      Adrian Devine          Tim McNab
Marco Estrada     SP      14%    55%    30%         Dave Veres        Terry Leach       Randy O'Neal
Randy Wolf        SP      24%    57%    19%        Bob Knepper          Bud Black         Larry Gura
Robert W00t3n     RP       9%    45%    45%     Roy (0R(0R4|\|    Franklin bR4\/0  Brian \/\/1L$0|\|
Dan Meadows       RP      10%    44%    46%         Steve Frey         Dan Plesac        Ray Aguilar
Randy Flores      RP      13%    37%    51%     Lee Guetterman     Eric Gunderson       Kevin Hickey
Chris Narveson    SP      16%    55%    29%      Mickey Mahler      Hong-Chih Kuo         Tom Bolton
Sean Green        RP       9%    38%    53%     Kevin Gryboski      Ernie Camacho       Bryce Florie
Eulogio de la CruzSP       2%    39%    58%         Tony Fiore     Craig McMurtry       Brett Laxton
Wily Peralta      SP       5%    46%    49%        Matt Albers      Sean Douglass         Joe Bitker
Manny Parra       SP       7%    34%    59%      Matt Thornton       Brian Snyder       Steve Searcy
Robert Hinton     RP       2%    26%    73%       Ryan Houston     Marc Deschenes    Courtney Duncan
Amaury Rivas      SP       2%    27%    71%      Jeff Fulchino    Dewon Brazelton       Don Robinson
Tyler Thornburg   SP       2%    25%    72%    Rocky Coppinger      Everett Stull    Jared Gothreaux
Zack Segovia      RP       1%    16%    83%     Dwight Bernard      Andy Mitchell        Jose Segura
Cody Scarpetta    SP       1%    25%    74%     Bill Mooneyham    Ben Hendrickson   Colin McLaughlin
Donovan Hand      RP       1%    15%    84%      Dwayne Pollok        Brian Allen       Randy Graham
Mitch Stetter     RP       6%    18%    77%      Jason Brosnan       Joey Eischen      Scott Watkins
Santo Manzanillo  RP       1%    14%    85%       Pete Sikaras   Anthony Claggett    Jason Gilfillan
Sam Narron        SP       1%    12%    88%       Odalis Perez        Scott Downs       Dave Gassner
Kyle Heckathorn   SP       0%     6%    94%      Mike Thompson          Rich Yett     Martire Franco
Josh Butler       SP       0%     4%    96%          Ben Fritz         Lee Rodney         Jim Hunter
Nicholas Bucci    SP       0%     2%    98%        Brian Adams      Greg Brummett       Dana Allison
Mark Rogers       SP       0%     4%    96%       Ivan Montane     Marvin Freeman       Nate Puryear
Chase Wright      SP       0%     0%   100%     Mike Prochaska          Dan Smith          Dave Otto

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Prince Fielder          22%      81%      75%       3%       0%      79%      68%       0%
Ryan Braun              44%      30%      66%      29%      10%      51%      37%      21%
Aramis Ramirez          19%       9%      30%       1%       0%      11%      11%       0%
Rickie Weeks             6%      19%      19%       0%       3%       7%      10%       2%
Corey Hart              12%       6%      34%       4%       4%      21%      10%       2%
Mat Gamel                7%      10%       7%       2%       0%       2%       4%       0%
Norichika Aoki          33%       8%       1%       1%      38%       0%       1%       1%
Taylor Green             6%       3%       4%      15%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Caleb Gindl              7%       5%       2%       4%       9%       1%       1%       1%
Jordan Brown             9%       0%       1%       3%       1%       0%       0%       0%
George Kottaras          3%       5%       7%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%
Brendan Katin            0%       0%       9%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jonathan Lucroy          3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Nyjer Morgan             9%       3%       0%       0%      14%       0%       0%      24%
Carlos Gomez             2%       1%       1%       0%       6%       0%       0%      13%
Felipe Lopez             4%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Zelous Wheeler           0%       2%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       2%
Logan Schafer            7%       2%       1%       0%       4%       0%       0%       1%
Sea Bass Gonzalez        1%       0%       2%       2%       1%       1%       0%       0%
Eric Farris              3%       0%       0%       0%       4%       0%       0%      27%
Travis Ishikawa          1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Erick Almonte            2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Andy Gonzalez            1%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Hainley Statia           2%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Kentrail Davis           0%       0%       0%       0%      42%       0%       0%       6%
Chris Nowak              1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Martin Maldonado         1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Craig Counsell           5%       7%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Cesar Izturis            4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Brock Kjeldgaard         0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%       1%
Brandon Jones            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Edwin Maysonet           0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Mike Rivera              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Anderson Machado         0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Zack Greinke              65%        93%        97%        34%        86%
John Axford               55%        92%        96%         0%        88%
Francisco Rodrigue        51%        89%        97%         1%        79%
Yovani Gallardo           26%        85%        92%         0%        67%
Shaun Marcum              24%        83%        33%        20%        64%
Kameron Loe               25%        74%        16%        14%        77%
Zach Braddock             28%        67%        94%         0%        73%
Brandon Kintzler          37%        72%        38%        39%        68%
Mark DiFelice             29%        60%        53%        26%        62%
Jose Veras                14%        61%        94%         0%        59%
Tim Dillard               12%        64%        10%         5%        76%
Michael Fiers              8%        53%        46%         1%        48%
Mike McClendon            14%        58%         2%        11%        86%
Marco Estrada             11%        58%        30%         5%        61%
Randy Wolf                 4%        50%         4%         2%        45%
Robert W00t3n              6%        39%        35%         0%        57%
Dan Meadows                7%        48%        27%         1%        52%
Randy Flores              13%        41%        17%         9%        64%
Chris Narveson             2%        38%        17%         0%        51%
Sean Green                 6%        31%        12%         0%        73%
Eulogio de la Cruz         2%        27%        10%         0%        71%
Wily Peralta               0%        18%        11%         0%        63%
Manny Parra                1%        16%        41%         0%        52%
Robert Hinton              2%        17%        41%         0%        40%
Amaury Rivas               0%         7%         0%         0%        52%
Tyler Thornburg            0%         8%        74%         0%        11%
Zack Segovia               1%         9%         1%         0%        61%
Cody Scarpetta             0%         6%         8%         0%        76%
Donovan Hand               1%         9%         0%        17%        44%
Mitch Stetter              6%        23%        40%         5%        32%
Santo Manzanillo           1%        11%        12%         0%        41%
Sam Narron                 0%         3%         0%        14%        43%
Kyle Heckathorn            0%         1%         0%         0%        20%
Josh Butler                0%         1%         0%         0%        32%
Nicholas Bucci             0%         0%         0%         0%         8%
Mark Rogers                0%         1%        10%         0%        29%
Chase Wright               0%         0%         0%         0%        21%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
Orioles
Rockies
Braves
Astros
Cardinals
Dodgers
Twins
Giants
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 03, 2012 at 02:11 PM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: January 03, 2012 at 02:33 PM (#4027781)
Rickie Weeks has made some defensive leaps.

Dan, I was thinking that Mark Difelice might get a starter rating since he pulled three AAA starts last year. He seems like a decent swingman option.
   2. Jose Molina wants a nickname like "A-Rod" Posted: January 03, 2012 at 02:43 PM (#4027801)
Marcum projection is missing.
   3. RJ in TO Posted: January 03, 2012 at 02:52 PM (#4027820)
I'll take the under on Braun's games played totals.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: January 03, 2012 at 02:56 PM (#4027829)
Was it Aramis who was comped to Brooks last year? We had good fun with that. :-)

This would be one heck of an offense with Prince back but Gamel projects OK. (Likely) missing Braun for 50 games is going to hurt of course.

Greinke's a weird cat. His ERA+ the last 2 years is 100 and 102 despite very good peripherals. The only season he's had where he's hit that ERA+ projection is his great 2009. He is possibly a true "high" BABIP pitcher -- 311 for his career and he hasn't had a season under 307 since his rookie year. Still only about 8 hits a year.

Caleb Grindl? I didn't know the Amish played baseball. :-) But then why not? Wood, leather, horsehide.

I'm obviously missing some joke about Robert Wooten.

On Prince. The comps seem appropriate ones, albeit Gonzalez being a bit more svelte. :-) OK, even Boog is a bit more svelte than Prince. Boog went off a cliff but not until 35 -- less playing time than you'd like but looks like that was Weaver platooning (which would improve Boog's rate stats). Anyway, 6 years, >3000 PA, 141 OPS+, 1 MVP.

Cash aged quite well actually. His relatively short career was due to a late start not a cliff. From 28-33 or 28-35 or 28-37, he was good for 550 PA and a 134 OPS+ per year.

Using the ZiPS career projection vs. current, Prince has coming 6300 PA (wow ... put me down as no ####### way), 1450 hits, 280 HR (is that all?) Given the career OPS+ ends up 10 points lower, I assume ZiPS sees him as maintaining at this level for about 5-6 years then a slow decline. Still surprised ZiPS is so bullish on him.

Whether any of those performances would be worth 6/$150 or 8/$184 or whatever is another matter but Prince looks like a good bet to hit for the next 6 years or so (say 20-24 WAR). ZiPS seems to think he'll be David Ortiz as he ages and that probably is good enough to warrant the extra years.
   5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 03, 2012 at 03:45 PM (#4027900)
WUT, BRAUN WON'T PLAY 156 GAMEZ LOL!
   6. morineko Posted: January 03, 2012 at 04:58 PM (#4027983)
Not Dan, but your answer on DiFelice is probably because his injury profile doesn't really make him fit as a starter at this point--he missed the last few months of the 2011 season. (but it's DiFelice, he proves things wrong)
   7. Spivey Posted: January 03, 2012 at 05:49 PM (#4028067)
How is K-Rod only 30 years old?
   8. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 03, 2012 at 08:44 PM (#4028236)
Weeks has some pretty crappy comps there.
   9. Jim Wisinski Posted: January 04, 2012 at 08:19 AM (#4028440)
Love Wooten's comps, Dan.
   10. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: January 04, 2012 at 11:11 AM (#4028520)
I'll take the over on Brauns lifetime HR. Also, if Greinke's career projections pan out, is he a HOF? He'd be almost as good as Morris. Sorry to pile on Jack.
   11. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: January 04, 2012 at 12:14 PM (#4028575)
Man, that's a good-looking team until you realize Prince is gone and Braun will be suspended 50 games.
   12. Walt Davis Posted: January 04, 2012 at 02:11 PM (#4028733)
if Greinke's career projections pan out, is he a HOF?

Too soon to tell. Those numbers (IP, wins) are nearly the same as Kevin Brown and Curt Schilling except a substantially lower ERA+ (127 vs 128 vs 120 for Greinke). So Brown without steroid suspicion (we hope) or Schilling without the bloody sock (and overall aweseome postseason stats -- seriously, the man was 11-2, 2.23 ERA in 19 starts, slightly better than that in the WS).

Anyway, it's not clear yet how the voters feel about the new "low" career IP starters that recent/current usage might be sticking us with.* Smoltz and Mussina are in similar situations but Smoltz has the saves and Mussina has 300 more IP and 50-55 more wins than these guys. In the end, I think all three of those guys make it in via BBWAA unless the backlog nightmares come to full fruition. Anyway, the voters tend to have some issues when there are substantial shifts in pitcher usage -- one of Morris's problems in a way, even moreso for somebody like Stieb. Presumably by the time Greinke retires they'll be used to it -- who knows, that might even be a high IP total by then. Schilling is next up (in a tough year), let's see how he goes.

*It's not entirely clear that current starter usage creates low career IP totals -- fewer innings per season for sure but maybe more seasons. Somewhat heavier usage but Maddux, Clemens, Glavine and Johnson all ended up with IP totals that any 70s warhorse would have been proud of. Maybe guys like Sabathia or Buehrle will stay durable through 45 now and still push 4000 IP for a career. Or, with lower offensive levels, I think we're already starting to see IP/start creep up for the top starters.
   13. zenbitz Posted: January 04, 2012 at 07:37 PM (#4029051)
That 152 for Fielder reminded me to look for Pujol's projection. Not under Cards or Angels... Dan??
   14. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: January 06, 2012 at 01:50 PM (#4030487)
Not Dan, but your answer on DiFelice is probably because his injury profile doesn't really make him fit as a starter at this point--he missed the last few months of the 2011 season. (but it's DiFelice, he proves things wrong)

DiFelice is also a one-pitch pitcher whose one pitch is a meatball to lefties.
   15. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 06, 2012 at 03:06 PM (#4030604)
Why does that screen name in 14 look familiar??
   16. cardsfanboy Posted: January 06, 2012 at 05:26 PM (#4030719)
I don't know why that name looks familiar? (I'm just posting this to see if it actually posts, since in other threads I can't seem to posts and nobody has posted anything in a while)
   17. Dale Sams Posted: January 06, 2012 at 05:39 PM (#4030720)
I was afraid my snark had gotten me banned.
   18. cardsfanboy Posted: January 06, 2012 at 05:45 PM (#4030721)
I was afraid my snark had gotten me banned.


You too?
   19. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 06, 2012 at 05:46 PM (#4030722)
since in other threads I can't seem to posts and nobody has posted anything in a while

Yeah, weird. This is the only thread I can seem to post in.

If this continues, this thread is really going to go meta.
   20. cardsfanboy Posted: January 06, 2012 at 05:51 PM (#4030723)
I can post in any thread that isn't on Newsblog(I think)
   21. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 06, 2012 at 05:53 PM (#4030724)
I can post in any thread that isn't on Newsblog(I think)

You're right. I was only clicking among the Hot topics.
   22. Jittery McFrog Posted: January 16, 2012 at 01:56 AM (#4037764)
Criminy, it took me four sentences to realize that #22 was spam. I thought "bags of charm" was some sort of snarky comment about Prince Fielder.
   23. Greg K Posted: January 16, 2012 at 04:49 AM (#4037776)
I don't know why, but I suddenly have the urge to pick up Mike Jacobs in my fantasy league.

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