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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, February 10, 2012

2012 ZiPS Projections - Oakland A’s

The A's are starting what looks to be their first true full tear-down job of the last decade. While they've always sent their better players out of town for various reasons, the players they've traded away aren't as good, and as a result don't fetch as much, as previous salary dumps. It's also unlikely that the A's will do any sudden strategy shifts, like the acquisition of Matt Holliday less than a year after the trading-away of many players that would have made the Holliday trade worthwhile.

2012? It's not going to be pretty. The team's likely to able to cobble together a good starting rotation and an OK bullpen, but the offense is going to be god-awful. 2012's looking like the first year in awhile that they could fail to hit 70 wins and have good odds on losing 100. The A's haven't actually dipped below 2011's 74 win total since 1997, but this team is more likely than not to do that.

Yes, I know Rich Harden's out for the season. Once again, I include as many players as possible, for information purposes.

Next Up: San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Coco Crisp        B    CF   32   .264 .320 .391 104 394  59 104  19   5   7  40  34  55  31   6   92
Seth Smith        L    RF   29   .245 .322 .408 138 400  52  98  21   4  12  46  45  89   7   1   97
Hideki Matsui     L    LF   38   .253 .326 .396 128 454  52 115  23   0  14  68  51  84   1   1   95
Kurt Suzuki       R    C    28   .259 .315 .393 141 514  64 133  28   1  13  61  36  62   4   2   91
Scott Sizemore    R    3B   27   .247 .326 .383 134 493  70 122  27   2  12  55  54 131   9   4   92
Daric Barton      L    1B   26   .241 .351 .359 125 435  65 105  24   3   7  52  72  88   3   2   94
Jemile Weeks      B    2B   25   .267 .318 .374 126 532  69 142  25  10   4  48  38  88  21  10   88
Cliff Pennington  B    SS   28   .252 .318 .359 156 543  71 137  27   5   7  53  52 105  23   7   84
Kila Ka'aihue     L    1B   28   .226 .329 .373 134 474  56 107  20   1  16  60  73 123   1   1   91
Michael Taylor    R    CF   26   .245 .307 .380 132 503  62 123  23   3  13  66  42 118  13   5   86
Collin Cowgill    R    CF   26   .243 .312 .360 127 486  58 118  22   4   9  54  45 116  20   5   82
Chris Carter      R    LF   25   .224 .302 .398 131 518  71 116  26   2  20  74  54 170   6   2   88
Wes Timmons       R    2B   32   .252 .334 .340 105 373  48  94  19   1   4  37  37  37  10   4   84
Eric Sogard       L    SS   26   .254 .321 .347 136 531  77 135  25   3   6  50  51  72  10   5   82
Brandon Allen     L    1B   26   .212 .310 .375 150 546  66 116  24   4  19  67  73 192  10   4   85
Jonny Gomes       R    LF   31   .220 .309 .374 126 372  47  82  16   1  13  48  41 117   6   3   85
Josh Reddick      L    RF   25   .238 .289 .391 148 517  60 123  26   4  15  47  39 114   5   5   83
Grant Green       R    SS   24   .254 .293 .363 155 639  72 162  33   2  11  57  33 172   7   7   77
Michael Choice    R    CF   22   .222 .290 .369 115 474  50 105  24   2  14  54  40 163  10   6   78
Jeffrey FiorentinoL    CF   29   .228 .303 .343 117 364  46  83  17   2   7  37  39  81   7   3   76
Brandon Moss      L    LF   28   .221 .291 .375 143 480  57 106  25   2  15  63  45 144   5   6   80
Josh Donaldson    R    C    26   .219 .289 .357 126 479  61 105  25   1  13  64  45 126   7   2   74
Derek Norris      R    C    23   .177 .333 .322 114 379  59  67  17   1  12  40  84 155   9   3   80
Adam Rosales      R    SS   29   .234 .288 .347  90 291  37  68  11   2   6  36  20  66   3   2   72
Anthony Recker    R    C    28   .220 .286 .354 106 381  43  84  19   1  10  40  34 120   4   3   73
Cedric Hunter     L    CF   24   .245 .291 .331 134 510  67 125  23   6   3  52  33  52  10   5   69
Shane Peterson    L    LF   24   .222 .293 .321 137 526  58 117  23   4   7  53  46 138  11   2   67
Jason Pridie      L    CF   28   .228 .273 .336 105 342  37  78  13   3   6  27  21  89  12   4   65
Stephen Parker    L    3B   24   .225 .294 .329 139 550  60 124  26   2   9  61  52 145   2   2   69
Jermaine Mitchell L    CF   27   .224 .300 .325 136 536  68 120  20   8   6  42  57 165  16  12   70
Landon Powell     B    C    30   .216 .294 .318  55 176  21  38   6   0   4  18  20  46   0   0   67

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Coco Crisp                                                            AV/81
Seth Smith                                                    AV/69          FR/131
Hideki Matsui                                                 PO/96
Kurt Suzuki              AV
Scott Sizemore                       AV/160  FR/104  FR/117
Daric Barton                 VG/102
Jemile Weeks                         FR/132
Cliff Pennington                     AV/115          AV/105
Kila Ka'aihue                AV/126                          FR/117          FR/116
Michael Taylor               AV/118                          AV/135  FR/135  AV/149
Collin Cowgill                                                VG/87  AV/158  AV/111
Chris Carter                 PO/122                          FR/125          PO/125
Wes Timmons                   AV/94  FR/107   FR/77  PO/117
Eric Sogard                          AV/126   FR/90   FR/94
Brandon Allen                AV/108                           AV/90
Jonny Gomes                                                  FR/103          PO/106
Josh Reddick                                                 VG/101  FR/142  VG/120
Grant Green                                          AV/181          FR/128
Michael Choice                                                       FR/186
Jeffrey Fiorentino                                            FR/99   PO/74   AV/96
Brandon Moss                                                 AV/102   FR/95   FR/82
Josh Donaldson           VG
Derek Norris             VG
Adam Rosales                  AV/91   AV/88  FR/101   FR/98  AV/113
Anthony Recker           AV   FR/97
Cedric Hunter                                                VG/125  AV/118  VG/125
Shane Peterson               AV/106                          VG/104   AV/98  VG/115
Jason Pridie                                                 VG/103  VG/104   VG/94
Stephen Parker               AV/104          FR/130
Jermaine Mitchell                                             VG/96  VG/139  VG/124
Landon Powell            VG  FR/117

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Brett Anderson    L      24     3.78     6    5   16   16   100.0  102   42    9   26   69   107
Brandon McCarthy  R      28     3.81     8    6   22   21   130.0  130   55   13   28   90   107
Dallas Braden     L      28     3.88     7    6   16   16    97.3   98   42    9   25   61   105
Tom Milone        L      25     4.02    10    9   28   28   159.0  173   71   13   33  114   101
Jarrod Parker     R      23     4.20     9    9   26   26   124.3  128   58    9   53   94    97
Brad Peacock      R      24     4.22    10   10   28   25   143.0  136   67   16   67  127    96
Bartolo Colon     R      39     4.23     6    8   20   19   112.7  117   53   13   32   80    96
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Rich Harden       R      30     4.46     5    6   20   20   103.0   97   51   16   49  108    91
Bobby Cramer      L      32     4.58     2    2   12    7    39.3   44   20    4   15   26    89
Graham Godfrey    R      27     4.90     7   10   26   22   125.0  141   68   12   51   74    83
Edgar Gonzalez    R      29     5.03     4    5   21   16    93.0  109   52    9   33   53    81
Tyson Ross        R      25     5.11     5    8   26   17    86.3   95   49   10   44   58    80
Fabio Castro      L      27     5.25     5    7   26   16    96.0  108   56    9   51   59    77
Lenny DiNardo     L      32     5.51     4    7   19   14    85.0  106   52   11   29   45    74
Carlos Hernandez  L      25     5.81     6   12   26   25   131.7  169   85   16   52   72    70
Pedro Figueroa    L      26     6.14     2    5   12   12    55.7   68   38    7   35   34    66

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Joey Devine       R      28     3.57     4    3   50    0    45.3   39   18    3   20   45   114
Grant Balfour     R      34     3.60     3    2   59    0    55.0   48   22    6   21   54   113
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Brian Fuentes     L      36     3.91     4    3   55    0    48.3   45   21    5   19   40   104
Erick Threets     L      30     4.01     1    1   24    0    24.7   25   11    2   11   14   101
Fautino De Los SanR      26     4.06     3    3   52    0    57.7   53   26    6   29   60   100
Andrew Carignan   R      25     4.12     2    2   38    0    39.3   38   18    4   18   35    99
Jerry Blevins     L      28     4.15     2    2   59    0    60.7   60   28    7   22   53    98
Michael Wuertz    R      33     4.18     1    1   50    3    47.3   43   22    5   24   51    97
Ryan Cook         R      25     4.23     4    4   63    0    66.0   64   31    5   35   53    96
Evan Scribner     R      26     4.37     4    4   51    0    55.7   56   27    6   20   46    93
Jordan Norberto   L      25     4.48     3    4   52    0    60.3   57   30    5   40   56    91
Fernando Cabrera  R      30     4.63     3    3   51    0    56.3   58   29    6   27   47    88
Vinnie Chulk      R      33     4.73     2    2   38    0    45.7   49   24    5   20   29    86
Neil Wagner       R      28     4.76     3    4   51    0    62.3   66   33    5   35   51    85
Jim Miller        R      30     4.80     3    5   54    0    65.7   73   35    8   23   48    85
Travis SchlichtingR      27     4.91     2    3   43    0    58.7   62   32    6   29   38    83
Merkin Valdez     R      30     5.10     3    4   48    0    60.0   67   34    6   31   39    80
Trey Barham       L      26     5.20     3    4   52    0    55.3   62   32    6   29   32    78
Jason Bergmann    R      30     5.60     3    6   38    6    62.7   71   39    8   36   40    73

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Kurt Suzuki          .255  .311  .380  1761  6409   743  1635   328    12   150   744   434   711    45    87
Coco Crisp           .269  .323  .395  1513  5722   831  1541   290    60   103   587   470   790   333    91
Hideki Matsui        .277  .353  .449  1522  5497   773  1525   305    12   205   917   653   864    14   113
Cliff Pennington     .253  .316  .362  1636  5658   704  1431   278    48    81   562   511   981   192    84
Daric Barton         .244  .355  .365  1346  4624   682  1127   265    28    80   534   780   884    29    97
Scott Sizemore       .245  .324  .377  1163  4210   574  1033   233    17    96   469   460  1017    65    90
Seth Smith           .255  .328  .428  1172  3280   443   835   179    36   106   396   350   649    45    98

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Bartolo Colon         179  133    0    4.14  413  403     2551 2573 1172  316  840 1953    109
Brett Anderson        135  110    0    3.77  354  353     2213 2198  926  218  595 1658    108
Rich Harden            87   71    0    4.11  284  272     1510 1333  690  201  707 1560    103

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Coco Crisp        CF     22%  22%  28%  18%   9%       Steve Finley       Dave Collins        Stan Javier
Seth Smith        RF      3%  14%  17%  26%  39%        Beau Allred      Ben Broussard       Keith Hughes
Hideki Matsui     LF      3%  10%  13%  21%  53%    Chris Chambliss      Tino Martinez        Matt Stairs
Kurt Suzuki       C       7%  25%  26%  28%  14%    Ramon Hernandez         Dan Wilson      Toby Rumfield
Scott Sizemore    3B      3%  12%  21%  28%  36%          Lee Walls     Brendan Harris       Mike Shannon
Daric Barton      1B      1%   3%   9%  32%  55%     Mike Twardoski         Travis Lee        Don Barbara
Jemile Weeks      2B      6%   9%  15%  26%  44%    Cristian Guzman    Wilton Guerrero       Joe Thurston
Cliff Pennington  SS      9%  16%  29%  27%  20%     Nelson Liriano       Bill Russell       Felipe Lopez
Kila Ka'aihue     1B      1%   3%   5%  22%  69%       Kevin Barker       Brandon Sing        Eric Valent
Michael Taylor    CF      2%   6%  17%  32%  43%    Ryan Spilborghs        Charles Poe      Darren Burton
Collin Cowgill    CF      3%   7%  20%  32%  38%        Xavier PaulJermaine Allenswort        Brian McRae
Chris Carter      LF      1%   5%   9%  19%  67%    Stanton Cameron        Jason Botts          Sal Rende
Wes Timmons       2B      5%   7%  11%  23%  54%        Augie Ojeda          John Finn         Todd Haney
Eric Sogard       SS      3%   9%  23%  32%  32%         Buddy Kerr         Russ Adams     Scott Fletcher
Brandon Allen     1B      0%   2%   5%  20%  73%      George Canale        Mike Hocutt       Monty Fariss
Jonny Gomes       LF      1%   3%   5%  13%  78%         Jed Hansen        Ernie Young      David McCarty
Josh Reddick      RF      0%   2%   4%  10%  84%       Kevin Reimer       Jorge Piedra     Robin Jennings
Grant Green       SS      2%   4%  14%  27%  53%     Jhonny Peralta         Mark Lewis Bill Knickerbocker
Michael Choice    CF      1%   3%  10%  23%  62%          John Rabb      Travis Snider          Jose Leon
Jeffrey FiorentinoCF      1%   2%   7%  20%  71%       Phil Dauphin    Michael Tullier      Tyrone Boykin
Brandon Moss      LF      0%   1%   2%   7%  90%        John Jensen  John-Ford Griffin       Tyrone Woods
Josh Donaldson    C       2%   5%  12%  30%  52%        Jeff Mathis      Marc Sullivan           Luke May
Derek Norris      C       6%  11%  15%  28%  40%     Steve Lomasney        Ben Petrick         Luke Montz
Adam Rosales      SS      1%   4%  10%  23%  62%         Nick Green     Andujar Cedeno         Tom Nevers
Anthony Recker    C       1%   4%  10%  28%  58%         Bill Hayes        Jack Fimple         Paul Russo
Cedric Hunter     CF      0%   1%   3%  10%  86%       Clay Timpner         Chris Frey      Cory Sullivan
Shane Peterson    LF      0%   1%   1%   3%  95%         B.J. BarnsFrancisco Plasencia        Orsino Hill
Jason Pridie      CF      1%   0%   2%  10%  86%       Tommy Murphy       Alexis Gomez        Jalal Leach
Stephen Parker    3B      0%   0%   1%   4%  94%         Greg David         Dave Baker         Chris Bass
Jermaine Mitchell CF      0%   0%   2%   9%  89%    Roger Bernadina    Herm Winningham     Fernando Perez
Landon Powell     C       1%   4%   6%  18%  71%       Danny Ardoin      Jayhawk Owens       Chris Tremie

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Joey Devine       RP      41%    42%    17%        Rich Garces         Ryne Duren        Greg Harris
Grant Balfour     RP      33%    52%    14%       Stan Belinda       Jeff Parrett   Brendan Donnelly
Brett Anderson    SP      50%    42%     8%    Donovan Osborne     Mike Kusiewicz        Manny Parra
Brandon McCarthy  SP      45%    48%     7%     Brian Tollberg       Kevin Tapani         Mike Grace
Dallas Braden     SP      35%    51%    14%        Chris Haney        John Halama    John Candelaria
Brian Fuentes     RP      23%    42%    35%        Ray Searage       Mark Guthrie      Trever Miller
Erick Threets     RP      24%    34%    42%       Hank Aguirre         Jim Brewer      Tom Burgmeier
Tom Milone        SP      33%    55%    11%    Donovan Osborne      Glendon Rusch      Rheal Cormier
Fautino De Los SanRP      17%    51%    33%       Brian Bruney        Bobby Jenks       Ryan Bukvich
Andrew Carignan   RP      22%    37%    41%    Derrick Turnbow      Steve Andrade         Bob Devlin
Jerry Blevins     RP      12%    47%    41%       Steve Wilson        John Grabow       Mark Guthrie
Michael Wuertz    RP      19%    41%    40%       Tim Stoddard       Jeff Parrett         Kane Davis
Jarrod Parker     SP      25%    57%    17%      Jason Schmidt           Bob Walk       Brian Holman
Brad Peacock      SP      21%    58%    21%       Shawn Chacon      Octavio Dotel        Tim Redding
Ryan Cook         RP      10%    49%    41%     Anthony Chavez       Brian Bowles           Sal Urso
Bartolo Colon     SP      21%    49%    30%         Jon Lieber        Doug Linton        Mike Morgan
Evan Scribner     RP      11%    39%    50%      Chad Ricketts         Greg Jones         Heath Bell
Rich Harden       SP      15%    44%    42%         Mario Soto       Chan Ho Park         Hideo Nomo
Jordan Norberto   RP       6%    37%    57%    Armando Almanza      Tyler Johnson    Kevin Lovingier
Bobby Cramer      SP      21%    33%    47%         Geoff Zahn        Chris Haney       Jason Jacome
Fernando Cabrera  RP       5%    30%    65%          David Lee      Roberto Giron    David Holdridge
Vinnie Chulk      RP       7%    26%    68%     Kevin Gryboski        Jim Dedrick     Kirk Bullinger
Neil Wagner       RP       3%    25%    72%       Roy Corcoran      Roberto Giron     Mike MacDougal
Jim Miller        RP       2%    28%    70%        Gary Glover      Rusty Meacham      Jack Cressend
Graham Godfrey    SP       3%    35%    62%        Mike LaCoss       Kevin Hodges        Steve Kelly
Travis SchlichtingRP       2%    19%    79%    William Vaughan         Greg Bauer     Jamie Emiliano
Edgar Gonzalez    SP       5%    34%    61%       Frank Campos       Heath Totten     Dave Borkowski
Merkin Valdez     RP       1%    18%    81%     Dwight Bernard      Mike Bumstead       Jake Robbins
Tyson Ross        SP       2%    25%    73%     Clint Nageotte        Mike Lumley         Danny Kolb
Trey Barham       RP       2%    17%    82%          Tom Doyle           Sal Urso    Anthony Ferrari
Fabio Castro      SP       1%    21%    78%          Sean Henn        Ken Spratke      Scott Forster
Lenny DiNardo     SP       2%    12%    87%    Lee Gronkiewicz         Robert Lee         Rick Waits
Jason Bergmann    RP       0%     6%    94%       James Warden      Marty McLeary   Jamie Brewington
Carlos Hernandez  SP       0%     3%    97%        Wes Whisler       Jason Cromer      Jason Dickson
Pedro Figueroa    SP       0%     5%    95%   Clayton Hamilton       Dusty Hughes   Mark Hendrickson

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Coco Crisp              10%       4%       2%       0%       7%       0%       1%      50%
Seth Smith               1%       4%       1%       0%       4%       0%       1%       0%
Hideki Matsui            4%       5%       2%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Kurt Suzuki              4%       1%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Scott Sizemore           2%       4%       1%       1%       1%       1%       1%       1%
Daric Barton             1%      20%       1%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Jemile Weeks             8%       1%       1%       0%      47%       0%       0%      13%
Cliff Pennington         3%       2%       1%       1%       5%       0%       0%      20%
Kila Ka'aihue            0%       5%       1%       0%       0%       2%       1%       0%
Michael Taylor           1%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       2%
Collin Cowgill           1%       1%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       8%
Chris Carter             0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       7%       0%       0%
Wes Timmons              4%       8%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Eric Sogard              2%       2%       0%       1%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Brandon Allen            0%       1%       0%       0%       2%       4%       0%       2%
Jonny Gomes              0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Reddick             0%       0%       1%       0%       5%       1%       0%       0%
Grant Green              2%       0%       1%       7%       1%       2%       0%       0%
Michael Choice           0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%       3%
Jeffrey Fiorentino       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brandon Moss             0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%       0%
Josh Donaldson           0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Derek Norris             0%      10%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Adam Rosales             1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Anthony Recker           0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Cedric Hunter            1%       0%       0%       0%      12%       0%       0%       0%
Shane Peterson           0%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       2%
Jason Pridie             0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Stephen Parker           0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Jermaine Mitchell        0%       0%       0%       0%      27%       0%       0%       2%
Landon Powell            1%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Joey Devine               31%        76%        77%         1%        87%
Grant Balfour             33%        74%        75%         2%        67%
Brett Anderson            15%        71%         3%        29%        82%
Brandon McCarthy          12%        69%         1%        63%        70%
Dallas Braden              9%        64%         1%        32%        77%
Brian Fuentes             17%        57%        27%         4%        62%
Erick Threets             24%        58%         4%        11%        88%
Tom Milone                 7%        61%         4%        68%        90%
Fautino De Los San        17%        60%        86%         0%        68%
Andrew Carignan           15%        49%        46%         2%        63%
Jerry Blevins             12%        51%        38%         3%        66%
Michael Wuertz            13%        51%        89%         0%        57%
Jarrod Parker              4%        48%         8%         0%        93%
Brad Peacock               4%        49%        43%         0%        60%
Ryan Cook                 10%        51%        17%         0%        84%
Bartolo Colon              5%        43%         4%        18%        55%
Evan Scribner              7%        42%        23%         3%        56%
Rich Harden                3%        29%        89%         0%        18%
Jordan Norberto            6%        36%        60%         0%        85%
Bobby Cramer               6%        28%         6%         8%        68%
Fernando Cabrera           3%        28%        30%         0%        58%
Vinnie Chulk               7%        25%         2%         1%        68%
Neil Wagner                2%        22%        26%         0%        83%
Jim Miller                 2%        23%         5%         5%        52%
Jim Miller                 1%        19%         5%         5%        52%
Graham Godfrey             0%        10%         0%         0%        75%
Travis Schlichting         1%        16%         1%         0%        69%
Edgar Gonzalez             1%        14%         1%         3%        65%
Merkin Valdez              1%        14%         1%         0%        78%
Tyson Ross                 0%         9%         1%         0%        62%
Trey Barham                1%        14%         0%         0%        63%
Fabio Castro               0%         5%         0%         0%        76%
Lenny DiNardo              0%         4%         1%         4%        42%
Jason Bergmann             0%         4%         1%         0%        40%
Carlos Hernandez           0%         0%         0%         0%        52%
Pedro Figueroa             0%         1%         0%         0%        42%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
Rangers
Marlins
Diamondbacks
Indians
Nationals
Blue Jays
Rays
Royals
Reds
Brewers
Orioles
Rockies
Braves
Astros
Cardinals
Dodgers
Twins
Giants
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 10, 2012 at 11:52 AM | 69 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Oh Votto...Canadas Overrated Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:11 PM (#4057967)
Any way to get a projection on Adrian Cardenas? Especially curious about defensive ratings. Thanks.
   2. Mark S. is bored Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:14 PM (#4057972)
What a horrendous offense. Only two players have at least a 10% chance at a .375 OBP. No one has more than a 2% chance a .500 SLG. And the highest projected OPS+ is 97.
   3. Willie Mayspedester Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:14 PM (#4057973)
2012 ZiPS Projections - Oakland AAA’s


FTFY
   4. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:17 PM (#4057978)
Boy, ZiPS does not like Brandon Allen at all, does it?

I'm not sure I've ever seen a team with no hitters projected for a three-digit OPS+.
   5. JJ1986 Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:18 PM (#4057980)
I'm surprised Seth Smith projects so poorly. He had a 112 OPS+ last year and 110 over the last three. Maybe ZiPS knows hitters go to Oakland to die.
   6. Tuque Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:22 PM (#4057987)
Oof. Dat lineup.
   7. RJ in TO Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:24 PM (#4057991)
This looks like a stunningly boringly bad team.
   8. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:26 PM (#4057996)
Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Coco Crisp 


Stop right there. This team blows.
   9. UCCF Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:28 PM (#4057997)
Fejjrey!
   10. Willie Mayspedester Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:31 PM (#4058002)
Some fan boy thinking here...

#1 Nice top comp for Jarrod Parker (quality wise not health wise). EDIT: Not too amazing for the first 6 years under team control though

#2 I want a Threets jersey (never heard of the guy)

#3 That's a ton of walks for Norris.
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:34 PM (#4058008)
Hideki Matsui L LF 38 .253 .326 .396 128 454 52 115 23 0 14 68 51 84 1 1 95
Kila Ka'aihue L 1B 28 .226 .329 .373 134 474 56 107 20 1 16 60 73 123 1 1 91
Chris Carter R LF 25 .224 .302 .398 131 518 71 116 26 2 20 74 54 170 6 2 88
Brandon Allen L 1B 26 .212 .310 .375 150 546 66 116 24 4 19 67 73 192 10 4 85
Jonny Gomes R LF 31 .220 .309 .374 126 372 47 82 16 1 13 48 41 117 6 3 85


Shitty DHs are the new market inefficiency!
   12. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:35 PM (#4058013)
Gomes's 85 is kind of rough too (career ops+ = 109, over the last n years, he's been around 100). That said, not a good park for him.

[Mind you, not a good signing.]
   13. Spahn Insane Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:37 PM (#4058015)
Any way to get a projection on Adrian Cardenas? Especially curious about defensive ratings. Thanks.

Cardenas is a Cub now. (Not that you shouldn't want his projection anyway, but I'm just sayin'.)
   14. RJ in TO Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:40 PM (#4058022)
Shitty DHs are the new market inefficiency!

They fit in nicely with the shitty centerfielders, shitty middle infielders, and shitty catchers.

They're going to have an armpit of an ####### of a lineup.
   15. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:44 PM (#4058028)
Threets has flirted with triple digits when healthy.
   16. RJ in TO Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:45 PM (#4058029)
Threets has flirted with triple digits when healthy.

He has a chance to be the next Mordecai Brown.
   17. Guapo Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:45 PM (#4058030)
Kila Ka'aihue is the thing to say
If you're rooting for the Oakland A's
That's the new first baseman for you
For the team where stat heads play
Here we know that quadruple-A players will get a chance
If they take a walk- we're not selling pants
Kila Ka'aihue is Hawaii's way
To say "Moneyball" to you
   18. andrewberg Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:47 PM (#4058032)
Has there been a Willingham projection anywhere? I didn't see one here or on the Twins page. If not, could we get one? Thanks.
   19. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:52 PM (#4058040)
This team may not be good but the comps seem calculated to be especially depressing. Get ready for a rotation of Glendon Rusch, Shawn Chacon, Brian Tollberg, Jon Lieber, and Chris Haney.

Brett Anderson may not be a Cy Young candidate, but he has 62 starts at ages 21-23 with an ERA+ of 116. How does he get compared to a guy who at the same age had just given up a 1.333 WHIP with the Tennessee Smokies?

   20. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:54 PM (#4058043)
#17 is amazing
   21. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4058046)
Haven't done his projection yet, but Cardenas's defensive ratings aren't going to be very good.
   22. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4058047)
Willingham is 247/347/450, OPS+ 115 in Minnesota.
   23. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 10, 2012 at 01:01 PM (#4058051)
16: Nice one.

This team may not be good but the comps seem calculated to be especially depressing. Get ready for a rotation of Glendon Rusch, Shawn Chacon, Brian Tollberg, Jon Lieber, and Chris Haney.
And that's the best part of the team.
   24. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 10, 2012 at 01:09 PM (#4058059)
Primey for #17.
   25. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 10, 2012 at 01:13 PM (#4058064)
The Anderson comps do look odd. Will investigate. I have a bad habit of interrupting calculations accidentally.
   26. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 10, 2012 at 01:15 PM (#4058065)
Looks like that's what I did. Donovan Osborne still the top, but then Steve Trout and Mark Mulder.
   27. Squash Posted: February 10, 2012 at 01:18 PM (#4058066)
I still think people are way, way overestimating (or underestimating?) how bad the A's are going to be, probably less for reasons of who they have on the field and more for reasons of who they have in the front office. They're not going to lose 100. I wish they'd lose 100, they'd get a desperately-needed high draft pick. People talk about this year's offense like it's some revelation that it's bad. Last year's offense sucked too. And the year before's, and the year before's. They still kept winning 75 games. This team still wins 70. They need to get worse. Trading Balfour, Devine (if he's healthy, ha ha) and Brandon McCarthy would help.
   28. Danny Posted: February 10, 2012 at 01:20 PM (#4058070)
I thought the Smith trade would at least give them one guy over 100 OPS+. Oh well.

Some of the offensive projections look low. Specifically: Smith, Pennington, Gomes are all well below their 3-year averages.

Really glad to see the A's ditch Cardenas so the could hold onto Recker, Donaldson, Kila, Wagner, and Norberto.

I've never heard of John Rabb, but those are some scary comps for Choice.

It's weird seeing Anderson and Milone with the same top comp.
   29. Shooty Survived the Shutdown of '14! Posted: February 10, 2012 at 01:25 PM (#4058076)
I've never heard of John Rabb, but those are some scary comps for Choice.

IIRC, was a Giants prospect back in the day. And, no, that's not a good comp. Crushingly blah looking team but, as they say in England, love the shirt.
   30. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: February 10, 2012 at 01:30 PM (#4058082)
Optimism about each season has been ending earlier and earlier. I think I made it to around the 4th inning on Opening Day last season. But never even a glimmer this time around. Kaput.
   31. buccosmfg Posted: February 10, 2012 at 01:31 PM (#4058084)
Has there been a Willingham projection anywhere? I didn't see one here or on the Twins page. If not, could we get one? Thanks.


Could we get a David DeJesus preview as well? Thanks
   32. Boxkutter Posted: February 10, 2012 at 01:35 PM (#4058088)
Ugh, those Seth Smith numbers are killing me. I traded for him early this off-season. Was pretty happy with the 271/342/473 and the 105 OPS+.
   33. Danny Posted: February 10, 2012 at 01:35 PM (#4058089)
After looking up John Rabb, I much prefer the PECOTA comps for Choice: Juan Gonzalez, Andruw Jones, Adam Jones
   34. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 10, 2012 at 02:06 PM (#4058128)
Looks like that's what I did. Donovan Osborne still the top, but then Steve Trout and Mark Mulder.


Aha!

That would be the optimistic side of Donovan Osborne. Tom Milone gets the Osborne/Rusch/Cormier scenario.
   35. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 10, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4058157)
DeJesus - 268/339/418, OPS+ 100 in Chicago.
   36. Zoppity Zoop Posted: February 10, 2012 at 02:32 PM (#4058159)
Does PECOTA not use minor leaguers in their comps? I was looking at the Royals and it seemed most minor leaguers had at least a star and frequently a Hall of Famer in their comps.
   37. Danny Posted: February 10, 2012 at 02:36 PM (#4058168)
Does PECOTA not use minor leaguers in their comps? I was looking at the Royals and it seemed most minor leaguers had at least a star and frequently a Hall of Famer in their comps.

Doesn't seem like it. Some other A's top comps from PECOTA:

Sogard: Allen Trammell
Pennington: Allen Trammell
Head: Freddie Freeman
Norris: Alex Avila (and Frank Thomas!)
Rosales: Jay Bell
Crocker: Gus Bell (and Roberto Clemente!)
   38. jfish26101 Posted: February 10, 2012 at 03:00 PM (#4058187)
DeJesus - 268/339/418, OPS+ 100 in Chicago.

Can we get the defense line as well? Thanks Dan.
   39. Barnaby Jones Posted: February 10, 2012 at 03:08 PM (#4058208)
The PECOTA comps are the most ridiculous things I've ever seen. The lowest projection in the whole dataset (Kyle Waldrop, 20-years old in the Reds system, a WARP of -4), comes with a comp to Al F'ing Kaline, who at 20 was a 9 WAR player. Why even bother?
   40. A triple short of the cycle Posted: February 10, 2012 at 03:17 PM (#4058225)
My on-again, off-again relationship with A's season tickets is OFF again. Briefly, I had season tickets for several years, then refused for two years (with angry letter to Lew Wolff), then last year I gave in and got season tickets again... WELL NOT THIS YEAR. Lew Wolff can go #### himself. I'll be listening on the radio for free.
   41. Zoppity Zoop Posted: February 10, 2012 at 03:39 PM (#4058257)
Yeah, ZIPS has it's share of goofy comps at times, but most of them at least seem to make sense. Here are 4 of the craziest ones that SBN found (PECOTA, then ZIPS)


Clint Robinson Justin Morneau, Glenn Davis, Kent Hrbek vs. Shawn Wooten, Danny Lewis, Adam Lind
Jai Miller Eric Davis, Dale Murphy, Reggie Jackson vs. ??? (Help me out, Szym)
Dan Johnson Kent Hrbek, Eddie Murray, Norm Cash vs. Kevin Barker, Graham Koonce, Ozzie Virgil
Cody Ransom Ken Caminiti, Ron Cey, Eddie Joost vs. Shane Halter, Rico Rossy, Mike Bordick

And like 1/4 of the guys who hit well in rookie ball have Alex Rodriguez on their comp list.

If you're going to go the comp route, I don't know why you would only compare young minor leaguers to young major leaguers. It just guarantees that 95% of minor leaguers are going to get compared to players a crapload better than they are.
   42. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 10, 2012 at 03:42 PM (#4058261)
Can we get the defense line as well? Thanks Dan.

VG/56, FR/88, VG/72
   43. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 10, 2012 at 03:45 PM (#4058267)
Jai Miller Eric Davis, Dale Murphy, Reggie Jackson vs. ??? (Help me out, Szym)

I've already done Jai Miller with Baltimore as 221/288/426, 90 OPS+

His top ZiPS comps are Joe Hicks, Bam-Bam Meulens, and Ryan Thompson.
   44. Dan Posted: February 10, 2012 at 03:50 PM (#4058273)
I'll take the over on Reddick, even hitting in the Oakland Coliseum.
   45. jfish26101 Posted: February 10, 2012 at 04:08 PM (#4058295)
VG/56, FR/88, VG/72

Darn, his defense took a HUGE hit...like cut in half due to one down year.

http://fansofdmb.yuku.com/reply/1353/-Value--Defense-including---Position-Players-reposted-#reply-1353

He had an Ex/39 last year so ~33 runs above average. His Vg/56 exactly half that. Very disappointing.
   46. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: February 10, 2012 at 04:20 PM (#4058305)
*flips desk*

*throws chair*

.
.
.

*shoots self*
   47. Guapo Posted: February 10, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4058320)
Seth Smith: Wow, I saw on baseballthinkfactory.com that nobody on our team is projected to put up a 100 OPS+.
Billy Beane: It's not that hard, Seth. Tell him, Daric.
Daric Barton: It's incredibly hard.
   48. zenbitz Posted: February 10, 2012 at 04:52 PM (#4058329)
Who'd have thought the A's would envy the Giant's lineup.
   49. John DiFool2 Posted: February 10, 2012 at 05:39 PM (#4058387)
Does Beane have any sort of 3-year plan or something? Are there budding stars in the lower minors?
   50. RJ in TO Posted: February 10, 2012 at 05:45 PM (#4058400)
Does Beane have any sort of 3-year plan or something?

Wait three years, and then trade anyone talented for more prospects.
   51. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: February 10, 2012 at 06:19 PM (#4058435)
I've already done Jai Miller with Baltimore as 221/288/426, 90 OPS+

I've said it in other threads, but: How does a player like that not even get a chance with a team like Oakland?

Note: I've irrationally hopped on the Jai Miller bandwagon, and hope me mashes in Baltimore.
   52. A triple short of the cycle Posted: February 10, 2012 at 06:57 PM (#4058459)
Are there budding stars in the lower minors?

The A's have six players in MLB's Top 100 prospect list.

Grant Greene, OF
Michael Choice, OF
Jarrod Parker, P
Sonny Gray, P
Brad Peacock, P
AJ Cole, P

They have a couple of catching prospects in Derek Norris and Max Stassi.

Plus there are the two perennial Oakland "prospects," Chris Carter and Michael Taylor.





   53. Willie Mayspedester Posted: February 10, 2012 at 07:02 PM (#4058463)
How many k's for Jai Miller 300?
   54. J. Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: February 10, 2012 at 07:34 PM (#4058481)
#17: No-Doubt First Ballot Primey Hall of Fame.
   55. rynoman7 Posted: February 10, 2012 at 08:09 PM (#4058494)
Dan - will you be giving Ben Sheets a projection this year?
   56. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: February 10, 2012 at 09:12 PM (#4058514)
People really yell at you for *including* a player? Sheesh.
   57. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: February 10, 2012 at 09:56 PM (#4058549)
This is one horrendous team. We could reach 120 losses. No triple digit hitters and they're a Brandon McCarthy injury away from "Tom Milone, ace starter"
   58. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: February 10, 2012 at 10:34 PM (#4058572)
Beane is really taking this soccer infatuation seriously, the best hope for this team is a series of nil-nil draws.
   59. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: February 10, 2012 at 11:32 PM (#4058601)
I've irrationally hopped on the Jai Miller bandwagon, and hope me mashes in Baltimore

Playing for Baltimore dooms all hopes.
   60. Squash Posted: February 11, 2012 at 05:24 AM (#4058699)
You guys are crazy.
   61. dazzle Posted: February 11, 2012 at 08:17 PM (#4059050)
The city of Oakland ought to run this team out of town.

Any hope for a Sheets projection?
   62. Bourbon Samurai Posted: February 11, 2012 at 09:00 PM (#4059069)
I'd rather they be terrible than hoplessely mediocre. The last few years teams really drove me crazy.
   63. DevinM Posted: February 11, 2012 at 11:16 PM (#4059113)
Is Weeks defense really that bad? Also not super happy about his hitting zips but in reality I don't think he'll be much better I was just hoping for one of those he did well so he gets an amazing zip like Lawrie or some prospects with hype.
   64. davidalan51 Posted: February 12, 2012 at 08:28 PM (#4059467)
How did Balfour's ZiPS projection get worse (than last year's) after the year he just had (2011: 165 ERA+)? Is this because only three previous years are carried in the averaging? Seems strange that he would pitch as well as he did in 2010 (172 ERA+) only to see his projection get worse. I guess this is the result of the projection system still counting his one "off year" (2009: 90 ERA+) while no longer counting his phenomenal 2008 (287 ERA+). Is that it?
   65. Plank Posted: February 13, 2012 at 09:58 AM (#4059635)
Threets to the wind!
   66. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: February 13, 2012 at 11:51 AM (#4059719)
If you combined Oakland's pitching with Baltimore's hitting you'd have an 85 win team.

Boy, that's depressing.
   67. Danny Posted: February 13, 2012 at 01:21 PM (#4059814)
Can we get a projection for Cespedes? Thanks?
   68. valuearbitrageur Posted: February 13, 2012 at 02:46 PM (#4059926)
Dan, why did you design ZIPs to carry your irrational hatred of Billy Beane far beyond accepted deviation standards?
   69. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: April 10, 2012 at 05:57 AM (#4102428)
Looks like our third baseman is a catcher with a projected 74 OPS+. So that's pretty awesome.

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