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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Friday, February 10, 2012
2012 ZiPS Projections - Oakland A’s
The A's are starting what looks to be their first true full tear-down job of the last decade. While they've always sent their better players out of town for various reasons, the players they've traded away aren't as good, and as a result don't fetch as much, as previous salary dumps. It's also unlikely that the A's will do any sudden strategy shifts, like the acquisition of Matt Holliday less than a year after the trading-away of many players that would have made the Holliday trade worthwhile.
2012? It's not going to be pretty. The team's likely to able to cobble together a good starting rotation and an OK bullpen, but the offense is going to be god-awful. 2012's looking like the first year in awhile that they could fail to hit 70 wins and have good odds on losing 100. The A's haven't actually dipped below 2011's 74 win total since 1997, but this team is more likely than not to do that.
Yes, I know Rich Harden's out for the season. Once again, I include as many players as possible, for information purposes.
Next Up: San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Batting Projections
Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
Coco Crisp B CF 32 .264 .320 .391 104 394 59 104 19 5 7 40 34 55 31 6 92
Seth Smith L RF 29 .245 .322 .408 138 400 52 98 21 4 12 46 45 89 7 1 97
Hideki Matsui L LF 38 .253 .326 .396 128 454 52 115 23 0 14 68 51 84 1 1 95
Kurt Suzuki R C 28 .259 .315 .393 141 514 64 133 28 1 13 61 36 62 4 2 91
Scott Sizemore R 3B 27 .247 .326 .383 134 493 70 122 27 2 12 55 54 131 9 4 92
Daric Barton L 1B 26 .241 .351 .359 125 435 65 105 24 3 7 52 72 88 3 2 94
Jemile Weeks B 2B 25 .267 .318 .374 126 532 69 142 25 10 4 48 38 88 21 10 88
Cliff Pennington B SS 28 .252 .318 .359 156 543 71 137 27 5 7 53 52 105 23 7 84
Kila Ka'aihue L 1B 28 .226 .329 .373 134 474 56 107 20 1 16 60 73 123 1 1 91
Michael Taylor R CF 26 .245 .307 .380 132 503 62 123 23 3 13 66 42 118 13 5 86
Collin Cowgill R CF 26 .243 .312 .360 127 486 58 118 22 4 9 54 45 116 20 5 82
Chris Carter R LF 25 .224 .302 .398 131 518 71 116 26 2 20 74 54 170 6 2 88
Wes Timmons R 2B 32 .252 .334 .340 105 373 48 94 19 1 4 37 37 37 10 4 84
Eric Sogard L SS 26 .254 .321 .347 136 531 77 135 25 3 6 50 51 72 10 5 82
Brandon Allen L 1B 26 .212 .310 .375 150 546 66 116 24 4 19 67 73 192 10 4 85
Jonny Gomes R LF 31 .220 .309 .374 126 372 47 82 16 1 13 48 41 117 6 3 85
Josh Reddick L RF 25 .238 .289 .391 148 517 60 123 26 4 15 47 39 114 5 5 83
Grant Green R SS 24 .254 .293 .363 155 639 72 162 33 2 11 57 33 172 7 7 77
Michael Choice R CF 22 .222 .290 .369 115 474 50 105 24 2 14 54 40 163 10 6 78
Jeffrey FiorentinoL CF 29 .228 .303 .343 117 364 46 83 17 2 7 37 39 81 7 3 76
Brandon Moss L LF 28 .221 .291 .375 143 480 57 106 25 2 15 63 45 144 5 6 80
Josh Donaldson R C 26 .219 .289 .357 126 479 61 105 25 1 13 64 45 126 7 2 74
Derek Norris R C 23 .177 .333 .322 114 379 59 67 17 1 12 40 84 155 9 3 80
Adam Rosales R SS 29 .234 .288 .347 90 291 37 68 11 2 6 36 20 66 3 2 72
Anthony Recker R C 28 .220 .286 .354 106 381 43 84 19 1 10 40 34 120 4 3 73
Cedric Hunter L CF 24 .245 .291 .331 134 510 67 125 23 6 3 52 33 52 10 5 69
Shane Peterson L LF 24 .222 .293 .321 137 526 58 117 23 4 7 53 46 138 11 2 67
Jason Pridie L CF 28 .228 .273 .336 105 342 37 78 13 3 6 27 21 89 12 4 65
Stephen Parker L 3B 24 .225 .294 .329 139 550 60 124 26 2 9 61 52 145 2 2 69
Jermaine Mitchell L CF 27 .224 .300 .325 136 536 68 120 20 8 6 42 57 165 16 12 70
Landon Powell B C 30 .216 .294 .318 55 176 21 38 6 0 4 18 20 46 0 0 67
Defensive Projections
Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF
Coco Crisp AV/81
Seth Smith AV/69 FR/131
Hideki Matsui PO/96
Kurt Suzuki AV
Scott Sizemore AV/160 FR/104 FR/117
Daric Barton VG/102
Jemile Weeks FR/132
Cliff Pennington AV/115 AV/105
Kila Ka'aihue AV/126 FR/117 FR/116
Michael Taylor AV/118 AV/135 FR/135 AV/149
Collin Cowgill VG/87 AV/158 AV/111
Chris Carter PO/122 FR/125 PO/125
Wes Timmons AV/94 FR/107 FR/77 PO/117
Eric Sogard AV/126 FR/90 FR/94
Brandon Allen AV/108 AV/90
Jonny Gomes FR/103 PO/106
Josh Reddick VG/101 FR/142 VG/120
Grant Green AV/181 FR/128
Michael Choice FR/186
Jeffrey Fiorentino FR/99 PO/74 AV/96
Brandon Moss AV/102 FR/95 FR/82
Josh Donaldson VG
Derek Norris VG
Adam Rosales AV/91 AV/88 FR/101 FR/98 AV/113
Anthony Recker AV FR/97
Cedric Hunter VG/125 AV/118 VG/125
Shane Peterson AV/106 VG/104 AV/98 VG/115
Jason Pridie VG/103 VG/104 VG/94
Stephen Parker AV/104 FR/130
Jermaine Mitchell VG/96 VG/139 VG/124
Landon Powell VG FR/117
Pitching Projections - Starters
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Brett Anderson L 24 3.78 6 5 16 16 100.0 102 42 9 26 69 107
Brandon McCarthy R 28 3.81 8 6 22 21 130.0 130 55 13 28 90 107
Dallas Braden L 28 3.88 7 6 16 16 97.3 98 42 9 25 61 105
Tom Milone L 25 4.02 10 9 28 28 159.0 173 71 13 33 114 101
Jarrod Parker R 23 4.20 9 9 26 26 124.3 128 58 9 53 94 97
Brad Peacock R 24 4.22 10 10 28 25 143.0 136 67 16 67 127 96
Bartolo Colon R 39 4.23 6 8 20 19 112.7 117 53 13 32 80 96
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96
Rich Harden R 30 4.46 5 6 20 20 103.0 97 51 16 49 108 91
Bobby Cramer L 32 4.58 2 2 12 7 39.3 44 20 4 15 26 89
Graham Godfrey R 27 4.90 7 10 26 22 125.0 141 68 12 51 74 83
Edgar Gonzalez R 29 5.03 4 5 21 16 93.0 109 52 9 33 53 81
Tyson Ross R 25 5.11 5 8 26 17 86.3 95 49 10 44 58 80
Fabio Castro L 27 5.25 5 7 26 16 96.0 108 56 9 51 59 77
Lenny DiNardo L 32 5.51 4 7 19 14 85.0 106 52 11 29 45 74
Carlos Hernandez L 25 5.81 6 12 26 25 131.7 169 85 16 52 72 70
Pedro Figueroa L 26 6.14 2 5 12 12 55.7 68 38 7 35 34 66
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Joey Devine R 28 3.57 4 3 50 0 45.3 39 18 3 20 45 114
Grant Balfour R 34 3.60 3 2 59 0 55.0 48 22 6 21 54 113
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Brian Fuentes L 36 3.91 4 3 55 0 48.3 45 21 5 19 40 104
Erick Threets L 30 4.01 1 1 24 0 24.7 25 11 2 11 14 101
Fautino De Los SanR 26 4.06 3 3 52 0 57.7 53 26 6 29 60 100
Andrew Carignan R 25 4.12 2 2 38 0 39.3 38 18 4 18 35 99
Jerry Blevins L 28 4.15 2 2 59 0 60.7 60 28 7 22 53 98
Michael Wuertz R 33 4.18 1 1 50 3 47.3 43 22 5 24 51 97
Ryan Cook R 25 4.23 4 4 63 0 66.0 64 31 5 35 53 96
Evan Scribner R 26 4.37 4 4 51 0 55.7 56 27 6 20 46 93
Jordan Norberto L 25 4.48 3 4 52 0 60.3 57 30 5 40 56 91
Fernando Cabrera R 30 4.63 3 3 51 0 56.3 58 29 6 27 47 88
Vinnie Chulk R 33 4.73 2 2 38 0 45.7 49 24 5 20 29 86
Neil Wagner R 28 4.76 3 4 51 0 62.3 66 33 5 35 51 85
Jim Miller R 30 4.80 3 5 54 0 65.7 73 35 8 23 48 85
Travis SchlichtingR 27 4.91 2 3 43 0 58.7 62 32 6 29 38 83
Merkin Valdez R 30 5.10 3 4 48 0 60.0 67 34 6 31 39 80
Trey Barham L 26 5.20 3 4 52 0 55.3 62 32 6 29 32 78
Jason Bergmann R 30 5.60 3 6 38 6 62.7 71 39 8 36 40 73
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+
Kurt Suzuki .255 .311 .380 1761 6409 743 1635 328 12 150 744 434 711 45 87
Coco Crisp .269 .323 .395 1513 5722 831 1541 290 60 103 587 470 790 333 91
Hideki Matsui .277 .353 .449 1522 5497 773 1525 305 12 205 917 653 864 14 113
Cliff Pennington .253 .316 .362 1636 5658 704 1431 278 48 81 562 511 981 192 84
Daric Barton .244 .355 .365 1346 4624 682 1127 265 28 80 534 780 884 29 97
Scott Sizemore .245 .324 .377 1163 4210 574 1033 233 17 96 469 460 1017 65 90
Seth Smith .255 .328 .428 1172 3280 443 835 179 36 106 396 350 649 45 98
Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
Bartolo Colon 179 133 0 4.14 413 403 2551 2573 1172 316 840 1953 109
Brett Anderson 135 110 0 3.77 354 353 2213 2198 926 218 595 1658 108
Rich Harden 87 71 0 4.11 284 272 1510 1333 690 201 707 1560 103
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
Coco Crisp CF 22% 22% 28% 18% 9% Steve Finley Dave Collins Stan Javier
Seth Smith RF 3% 14% 17% 26% 39% Beau Allred Ben Broussard Keith Hughes
Hideki Matsui LF 3% 10% 13% 21% 53% Chris Chambliss Tino Martinez Matt Stairs
Kurt Suzuki C 7% 25% 26% 28% 14% Ramon Hernandez Dan Wilson Toby Rumfield
Scott Sizemore 3B 3% 12% 21% 28% 36% Lee Walls Brendan Harris Mike Shannon
Daric Barton 1B 1% 3% 9% 32% 55% Mike Twardoski Travis Lee Don Barbara
Jemile Weeks 2B 6% 9% 15% 26% 44% Cristian Guzman Wilton Guerrero Joe Thurston
Cliff Pennington SS 9% 16% 29% 27% 20% Nelson Liriano Bill Russell Felipe Lopez
Kila Ka'aihue 1B 1% 3% 5% 22% 69% Kevin Barker Brandon Sing Eric Valent
Michael Taylor CF 2% 6% 17% 32% 43% Ryan Spilborghs Charles Poe Darren Burton
Collin Cowgill CF 3% 7% 20% 32% 38% Xavier PaulJermaine Allenswort Brian McRae
Chris Carter LF 1% 5% 9% 19% 67% Stanton Cameron Jason Botts Sal Rende
Wes Timmons 2B 5% 7% 11% 23% 54% Augie Ojeda John Finn Todd Haney
Eric Sogard SS 3% 9% 23% 32% 32% Buddy Kerr Russ Adams Scott Fletcher
Brandon Allen 1B 0% 2% 5% 20% 73% George Canale Mike Hocutt Monty Fariss
Jonny Gomes LF 1% 3% 5% 13% 78% Jed Hansen Ernie Young David McCarty
Josh Reddick RF 0% 2% 4% 10% 84% Kevin Reimer Jorge Piedra Robin Jennings
Grant Green SS 2% 4% 14% 27% 53% Jhonny Peralta Mark Lewis Bill Knickerbocker
Michael Choice CF 1% 3% 10% 23% 62% John Rabb Travis Snider Jose Leon
Jeffrey FiorentinoCF 1% 2% 7% 20% 71% Phil Dauphin Michael Tullier Tyrone Boykin
Brandon Moss LF 0% 1% 2% 7% 90% John Jensen John-Ford Griffin Tyrone Woods
Josh Donaldson C 2% 5% 12% 30% 52% Jeff Mathis Marc Sullivan Luke May
Derek Norris C 6% 11% 15% 28% 40% Steve Lomasney Ben Petrick Luke Montz
Adam Rosales SS 1% 4% 10% 23% 62% Nick Green Andujar Cedeno Tom Nevers
Anthony Recker C 1% 4% 10% 28% 58% Bill Hayes Jack Fimple Paul Russo
Cedric Hunter CF 0% 1% 3% 10% 86% Clay Timpner Chris Frey Cory Sullivan
Shane Peterson LF 0% 1% 1% 3% 95% B.J. BarnsFrancisco Plasencia Orsino Hill
Jason Pridie CF 1% 0% 2% 10% 86% Tommy Murphy Alexis Gomez Jalal Leach
Stephen Parker 3B 0% 0% 1% 4% 94% Greg David Dave Baker Chris Bass
Jermaine Mitchell CF 0% 0% 2% 9% 89% Roger Bernadina Herm Winningham Fernando Perez
Landon Powell C 1% 4% 6% 18% 71% Danny Ardoin Jayhawk Owens Chris Tremie
Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3
Joey Devine RP 41% 42% 17% Rich Garces Ryne Duren Greg Harris
Grant Balfour RP 33% 52% 14% Stan Belinda Jeff Parrett Brendan Donnelly
Brett Anderson SP 50% 42% 8% Donovan Osborne Mike Kusiewicz Manny Parra
Brandon McCarthy SP 45% 48% 7% Brian Tollberg Kevin Tapani Mike Grace
Dallas Braden SP 35% 51% 14% Chris Haney John Halama John Candelaria
Brian Fuentes RP 23% 42% 35% Ray Searage Mark Guthrie Trever Miller
Erick Threets RP 24% 34% 42% Hank Aguirre Jim Brewer Tom Burgmeier
Tom Milone SP 33% 55% 11% Donovan Osborne Glendon Rusch Rheal Cormier
Fautino De Los SanRP 17% 51% 33% Brian Bruney Bobby Jenks Ryan Bukvich
Andrew Carignan RP 22% 37% 41% Derrick Turnbow Steve Andrade Bob Devlin
Jerry Blevins RP 12% 47% 41% Steve Wilson John Grabow Mark Guthrie
Michael Wuertz RP 19% 41% 40% Tim Stoddard Jeff Parrett Kane Davis
Jarrod Parker SP 25% 57% 17% Jason Schmidt Bob Walk Brian Holman
Brad Peacock SP 21% 58% 21% Shawn Chacon Octavio Dotel Tim Redding
Ryan Cook RP 10% 49% 41% Anthony Chavez Brian Bowles Sal Urso
Bartolo Colon SP 21% 49% 30% Jon Lieber Doug Linton Mike Morgan
Evan Scribner RP 11% 39% 50% Chad Ricketts Greg Jones Heath Bell
Rich Harden SP 15% 44% 42% Mario Soto Chan Ho Park Hideo Nomo
Jordan Norberto RP 6% 37% 57% Armando Almanza Tyler Johnson Kevin Lovingier
Bobby Cramer SP 21% 33% 47% Geoff Zahn Chris Haney Jason Jacome
Fernando Cabrera RP 5% 30% 65% David Lee Roberto Giron David Holdridge
Vinnie Chulk RP 7% 26% 68% Kevin Gryboski Jim Dedrick Kirk Bullinger
Neil Wagner RP 3% 25% 72% Roy Corcoran Roberto Giron Mike MacDougal
Jim Miller RP 2% 28% 70% Gary Glover Rusty Meacham Jack Cressend
Graham Godfrey SP 3% 35% 62% Mike LaCoss Kevin Hodges Steve Kelly
Travis SchlichtingRP 2% 19% 79% William Vaughan Greg Bauer Jamie Emiliano
Edgar Gonzalez SP 5% 34% 61% Frank Campos Heath Totten Dave Borkowski
Merkin Valdez RP 1% 18% 81% Dwight Bernard Mike Bumstead Jake Robbins
Tyson Ross SP 2% 25% 73% Clint Nageotte Mike Lumley Danny Kolb
Trey Barham RP 2% 17% 82% Tom Doyle Sal Urso Anthony Ferrari
Fabio Castro SP 1% 21% 78% Sean Henn Ken Spratke Scott Forster
Lenny DiNardo SP 2% 12% 87% Lee Gronkiewicz Robert Lee Rick Waits
Jason Bergmann RP 0% 6% 94% James Warden Marty McLeary Jamie Brewington
Carlos Hernandez SP 0% 3% 97% Wes Whisler Jason Cromer Jason Dickson
Pedro Figueroa SP 0% 5% 95% Clayton Hamilton Dusty Hughes Mark Hendrickson
Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB
Coco Crisp 10% 4% 2% 0% 7% 0% 1% 50%
Seth Smith 1% 4% 1% 0% 4% 0% 1% 0%
Hideki Matsui 4% 5% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0%
Kurt Suzuki 4% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Scott Sizemore 2% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Daric Barton 1% 20% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0%
Jemile Weeks 8% 1% 1% 0% 47% 0% 0% 13%
Cliff Pennington 3% 2% 1% 1% 5% 0% 0% 20%
Kila Ka'aihue 0% 5% 1% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0%
Michael Taylor 1% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2%
Collin Cowgill 1% 1% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 8%
Chris Carter 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 7% 0% 0%
Wes Timmons 4% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Eric Sogard 2% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1%
Brandon Allen 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 4% 0% 2%
Jonny Gomes 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Josh Reddick 0% 0% 1% 0% 5% 1% 0% 0%
Grant Green 2% 0% 1% 7% 1% 2% 0% 0%
Michael Choice 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 3%
Jeffrey Fiorentino 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Brandon Moss 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0%
Josh Donaldson 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Derek Norris 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Adam Rosales 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Anthony Recker 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Cedric Hunter 1% 0% 0% 0% 12% 0% 0% 0%
Shane Peterson 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 2%
Jason Pridie 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1%
Stephen Parker 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Jermaine Mitchell 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 0% 0% 2%
Landon Powell 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1
Joey Devine 31% 76% 77% 1% 87%
Grant Balfour 33% 74% 75% 2% 67%
Brett Anderson 15% 71% 3% 29% 82%
Brandon McCarthy 12% 69% 1% 63% 70%
Dallas Braden 9% 64% 1% 32% 77%
Brian Fuentes 17% 57% 27% 4% 62%
Erick Threets 24% 58% 4% 11% 88%
Tom Milone 7% 61% 4% 68% 90%
Fautino De Los San 17% 60% 86% 0% 68%
Andrew Carignan 15% 49% 46% 2% 63%
Jerry Blevins 12% 51% 38% 3% 66%
Michael Wuertz 13% 51% 89% 0% 57%
Jarrod Parker 4% 48% 8% 0% 93%
Brad Peacock 4% 49% 43% 0% 60%
Ryan Cook 10% 51% 17% 0% 84%
Bartolo Colon 5% 43% 4% 18% 55%
Evan Scribner 7% 42% 23% 3% 56%
Rich Harden 3% 29% 89% 0% 18%
Jordan Norberto 6% 36% 60% 0% 85%
Bobby Cramer 6% 28% 6% 8% 68%
Fernando Cabrera 3% 28% 30% 0% 58%
Vinnie Chulk 7% 25% 2% 1% 68%
Neil Wagner 2% 22% 26% 0% 83%
Jim Miller 2% 23% 5% 5% 52%
Jim Miller 1% 19% 5% 5% 52%
Graham Godfrey 0% 10% 0% 0% 75%
Travis Schlichting 1% 16% 1% 0% 69%
Edgar Gonzalez 1% 14% 1% 3% 65%
Merkin Valdez 1% 14% 1% 0% 78%
Tyson Ross 0% 9% 1% 0% 62%
Trey Barham 1% 14% 0% 0% 63%
Fabio Castro 0% 5% 0% 0% 76%
Lenny DiNardo 0% 4% 1% 4% 42%
Jason Bergmann 0% 4% 1% 0% 40%
Carlos Hernandez 0% 0% 0% 0% 52%
Pedro Figueroa 0% 1% 0% 0% 42%
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
Rangers
Marlins
Diamondbacks
Indians
Nationals
Blue Jays
Rays
Royals
Reds
Brewers
Orioles
Rockies
Braves
Astros
Cardinals
Dodgers
Twins
Giants
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 10, 2012 at 11:52 AM | 69 comment(s)
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1. Oh Votto...Canadas Overrated Posted: February 10, 2012 at 12:11 PM (#4057967)FTFY
I'm not sure I've ever seen a team with no hitters projected for a three-digit OPS+.
Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+Coco Crisp
Stop right there. This team blows.
#1 Nice top comp for Jarrod Parker (quality wise not health wise). EDIT: Not too amazing for the first 6 years under team control though
#2 I want a Threets jersey (never heard of the guy)
#3 That's a ton of walks for Norris.
Shitty DHs are the new market inefficiency!
[Mind you, not a good signing.]
Cardenas is a Cub now. (Not that you shouldn't want his projection anyway, but I'm just sayin'.)
They fit in nicely with the shitty centerfielders, shitty middle infielders, and shitty catchers.
They're going to have an armpit of an ####### of a lineup.
He has a chance to be the next Mordecai Brown.
If you're rooting for the Oakland A's
That's the new first baseman for you
For the team where stat heads play
Here we know that quadruple-A players will get a chance
If they take a walk- we're not selling pants
Kila Ka'aihue is Hawaii's way
To say "Moneyball" to you
Brett Anderson may not be a Cy Young candidate, but he has 62 starts at ages 21-23 with an ERA+ of 116. How does he get compared to a guy who at the same age had just given up a 1.333 WHIP with the Tennessee Smokies?
This team may not be good but the comps seem calculated to be especially depressing. Get ready for a rotation of Glendon Rusch, Shawn Chacon, Brian Tollberg, Jon Lieber, and Chris Haney.
And that's the best part of the team.
Some of the offensive projections look low. Specifically: Smith, Pennington, Gomes are all well below their 3-year averages.
Really glad to see the A's ditch Cardenas so the could hold onto Recker, Donaldson, Kila, Wagner, and Norberto.
I've never heard of John Rabb, but those are some scary comps for Choice.
It's weird seeing Anderson and Milone with the same top comp.
IIRC, was a Giants prospect back in the day. And, no, that's not a good comp. Crushingly blah looking team but, as they say in England, love the shirt.
Could we get a David DeJesus preview as well? Thanks
Aha!
That would be the optimistic side of Donovan Osborne. Tom Milone gets the Osborne/Rusch/Cormier scenario.
Doesn't seem like it. Some other A's top comps from PECOTA:
Sogard: Allen Trammell
Pennington: Allen Trammell
Head: Freddie Freeman
Norris: Alex Avila (and Frank Thomas!)
Rosales: Jay Bell
Crocker: Gus Bell (and Roberto Clemente!)
Can we get the defense line as well? Thanks Dan.
Clint Robinson Justin Morneau, Glenn Davis, Kent Hrbek vs. Shawn Wooten, Danny Lewis, Adam Lind
Jai Miller Eric Davis, Dale Murphy, Reggie Jackson vs. ??? (Help me out, Szym)
Dan Johnson Kent Hrbek, Eddie Murray, Norm Cash vs. Kevin Barker, Graham Koonce, Ozzie Virgil
Cody Ransom Ken Caminiti, Ron Cey, Eddie Joost vs. Shane Halter, Rico Rossy, Mike Bordick
And like 1/4 of the guys who hit well in rookie ball have Alex Rodriguez on their comp list.
If you're going to go the comp route, I don't know why you would only compare young minor leaguers to young major leaguers. It just guarantees that 95% of minor leaguers are going to get compared to players a crapload better than they are.
VG/56, FR/88, VG/72
I've already done Jai Miller with Baltimore as 221/288/426, 90 OPS+
His top ZiPS comps are Joe Hicks, Bam-Bam Meulens, and Ryan Thompson.
Darn, his defense took a HUGE hit...like cut in half due to one down year.
http://fansofdmb.yuku.com/reply/1353/-Value--Defense-including---Position-Players-reposted-#reply-1353
He had an Ex/39 last year so ~33 runs above average. His Vg/56 exactly half that. Very disappointing.
*throws chair*
.
.
.
*shoots self*
Billy Beane: It's not that hard, Seth. Tell him, Daric.
Daric Barton: It's incredibly hard.
Wait three years, and then trade anyone talented for more prospects.
I've said it in other threads, but: How does a player like that not even get a chance with a team like Oakland?
Note: I've irrationally hopped on the Jai Miller bandwagon, and hope me mashes in Baltimore.
The A's have six players in MLB's Top 100 prospect list.
Grant Greene, OF
Michael Choice, OF
Jarrod Parker, P
Sonny Gray, P
Brad Peacock, P
AJ Cole, P
They have a couple of catching prospects in Derek Norris and Max Stassi.
Plus there are the two perennial Oakland "prospects," Chris Carter and Michael Taylor.
Playing for Baltimore dooms all hopes.
Any hope for a Sheets projection?
Boy, that's depressing.
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