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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, February 17, 2012

2012 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates

Unfortunately, Pittsburgh’s 72-90 record pretty accurately reflects where the team current stands, more than the early summer run that saw the team relevant in the NL Central standings for the first time in years.  A lot of the success with the pitching staff was of the ephemeral variety.  Jeff Karsten and his 3.38 ERA last season stand out - he has a weak resume and as a finesse righty with a fastball in the 80s that can’t keep the ball down enough, he walks that Josh Towers-like line between games in which he throws 6 shutout innings with 2 strikeouts and games in which he looks like a little leaguer being thrown in against the ‘27 Yankees.  Well, if they were alive, of course.

None of this should be taken as a negative on current management.  The Pirates are a team that’s very hard not to pull for.  After 20 years of ineptitude, the fans that are left are pretty hardcore and loyal and the blogosphere resulting, with places like Bucs Dugout, Where Have You Gone Andy Van Slyke and writers like Matt Bandi (formerly of Pittsburgh Lumber Co, now PiratesProspects.com) and David Todd giving the remaining Pirates fans lots of places to go (this list isn’t even remotely exhaustive).  Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington have done pretty much all they can - they didn’t come into Pittsburgh having to do a slap-on-the-plaster quickie makeover, but were given the task of turning around a franchise that looked like the sports equivalent of a city sacked in a war in the middle ages.

The Pirates do seem to realize that they need a rotation that consists more of middling finesse pitchers and have an organizational strategy centered around high-upside arms.  It’s a good strategy as risk is the friend of a team like the Pirates (and an enemy of teams like the Yankees or Red Sox).

As John Sickels put it in his Top 20 list for the Pirates:

The Pirates have a clear and consistent strategy in recent drafts: dump lots of money into pitching, with an emphasis on overslot deals in the middle rounds for projectable high school arms. So far it hasn’t paid many dividends, but it wasn’t expected to do so quickly: it is a long-term strategy.

Recent first-round picks Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon could both develop into number one starters, as could Mexican prodigy Luis Heredia. Cole is the most advanced of the group (as you would expect from a college pitcher). Personally I like Trevor Bauer a little better, but I can understand why the Pirates went with Cole and he’s certainly a Grade A guy. Taillon did just fine in Low-A, but Heredia could develop into just about anything, including nothing.

Will the Pirates seriously compete for the NL Central title in 2012?  Unlikely as there’s a lot of work to be done.  When it comes down to it, the long-term success of the Pirates relies on ownership having the stomach to wait for the length of time it takes for the mess to be fixed and the resilience to realize that said mess means that investments are going to take longer to pay off.

Plus, sign Andrew McCutchen long-term and do it yesterday.

Next Up: Big Ass Spreadsheet, v0.8

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Andrew McCutchen  R    CF   25   .274 .361 .455 156 585 102 160  35   7  19  74  78 110  28  10  120
Jose Tabata       R    LF   23   .278 .349 .394 133 510  87 142  30   4   7  39  52  81  26  11  102
Derrek Lee        R    1B   36   .260 .328 .433 123 473  63 123  24   2  18  64  46 104   2   1  105
Alex Presley      L    LF   26   .275 .324 .426 142 552  84 152  27  10  12  64  38  96  19   9  102
Neil Walker       B    2B   26   .268 .325 .432 156 585  79 157  38   5  16  89  48 111   9   5  104
Pedro Alvarez     L    3B   25   .245 .323 .447 142 503  61 123  24   3  24  70  58 167   2   2  107
Jake Fox          R    1B   29   .256 .316 .444 108 356  44  91  22   3  13  54  23  68   1   0  104
Garrett Jones     L    RF   31   .252 .317 .432 146 500  64 126  31   1  19  69  48 112   8   3  101
Starling Marte    R    CF   23   .279 .320 .421 127 506  77 141  29   8   9  56  20 108  20  12  100
Nate McLouth      L    CF   30   .243 .340 .391 108 379  56  92  19   2  11  37  50  70  11   3   98
Nick Evans        R    1B   26   .260 .314 .419 144 511  62 133  30   3  15  54  39 116   2   1   97
Rod Barajas       R    C    36   .251 .291 .440  99 323  36  81  16   0  15  48  16  61   0   0   95
Casey McGehee     R    3B   29   .262 .311 .398 147 527  52 138  28   1  14  68  40  84   0   2   92
Matt Hague        R    1B   26   .260 .319 .377 142 549  71 143  30   2  10  63  42  82   2   3   89
Josh Harrison     R    3B   24   .271 .308 .377 151 557  79 151  31   5   6  57  24  67  18   9   85
Jeff Clement      L    1B   28   .241 .296 .410  87 307  39  74  20   1  10  47  22  79   1   2   90
Clint Barmes      R    SS   33   .249 .305 .374 129 446  50 111  24   1  10  47  31  81   6   4   84
Andy Marte        R    3B   28   .239 .293 .390 106 318  36  76  17   2   9  39  23  63   1   1   84
Chase d’Arnaud    R    SS   25   .236 .297 .356 132 505  72 119  25   9   6  50  36 106  24   6   77
Eric Fryer        R    C    26   .238 .311 .354 104 362  49  86  15   3   7  34  34  87   7   2   80
Yamaico Navarro   R    SS   24   .249 .306 .371 107 385  49  96  20   3   7  39  30  75   9   7   83
Ramon Cabrera     B    C    22   .263 .314 .351 116 433  52 114  22   5   2  55  32  51   4   4   81
Robbie Grossman   B    RF   22   .239 .329 .348 154 598  98 143  32   3   9  56  77 154  17  12   84
Jose Morales      B    C    29   .257 .321 .332  64 202  19  52  10   1   1  18  19  39   0   1   78
Brandon Boggs     B    LF   29   .217 .313 .355 111 355  39  77  19   3   8  33  46 107   4   4   81
Andrew Lambo      L    RF   23   .232 .293 .362 129 456  54 106  24   1  11  54  37 117   4   3   77
Jordy Mercer      R    SS   25   .237 .284 .364 143 552  73 131  31   3  11  68  31 102   7   5   75
Michael McKenry   R    C    27   .227 .294 .355 102 352  34  80  19   1   8  34  32  94   1   2   76
Josh Rodriguez    R    2B   27   .232 .301 .341  95 349  39  81  13   2   7  33  33  92   4   3   74
Tony Sanchez      R    C    24   .231 .316 .325  98 351  38  81  16   1   5  42  34  80   4   3   75
Gorkys Hernandez  R    CF   24   .243 .299 .330 138 518  66 126  23   8   2  41  36 132  18   9   71
Anderson HernandezB    2B   29   .240 .291 .318 133 462  47 111  18   3   4  36  33  76  11   7   66
Wyatt Toregas     R    C    29   .228 .279 .329  49 158  13  36   7   0   3  29  10  31   0   0   65
Gustavo Nunez     B    SS   24   .237 .272 .312 131 541  67 128  16   8   3  28  21 101  22  16   59
Shelby Ford       B    1B   27   .210 .253 .319  76 257  31  54  12   2   4  26  12  69   4   2   54

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Andrew McCutchen                                                      AV/93
Jose Tabata                                                   VG/50   FR/95   AV/87
Derrek Lee                    AV/92
Alex Presley                                                 VG/103  FR/160   AV/88
Neil Walker                  AV/107   FR/69  AV/108
Pedro Alvarez                                FR/117
Jake Fox                 FR  AV/124           FR/99          FR/117          PO/117
Garrett Jones                AV/113                           AV/80           AV/80
Starling Marte                                                       VG/214  VG/120
Nate McLouth                                                  AV/87   FR/78  AV/117
Nick Evans                    AV/76           FR/97           AV/95           FR/91
Rod Barajas              AV
Casey McGehee                AV/116  PO/102  AV/105
Matt Hague                   FR/117          PO/131
Josh Harrison                        FR/130  AV/107  PO/119  FR/100
Jeff Clement             FR  FR/105
Clint Barmes                          VG/92           EX/80
Andy Marte                   AV/114           FR/91
Chase d’Arnaud                       AV/121  AV/101  FR/115
Eric Fryer               AV                                  AV/131          FR/124
Yamaico Navarro                      AV/112  AV/108  AV/121  AV/110          AV/107
Ramon Cabrera            PO
Robbie Grossman                                              VG/118  AV/150  AV/123
Jose Morales             AV  FR/117
Brandon Boggs                                                VG/106  VG/103   VG/99
Andrew Lambo                                                 FR/138          FR/140
Jordy Mercer                          AV/91   AV/99   AV/95
Michael McKenry          AV
Josh Rodriguez                       VG/123  AV/105  AV/113   AV/94           AV/94
Tony Sanchez             FR
Gorkys Hernandez                                             VG/118  VG/115  VG/115
Anderson Hernandez                   AV/114  AV/118  FR/117
Wyatt Toregas            AV
Gustavo Nunez                        AV/110          AV/109
Shelby Ford                  AV/106  AV/122  AV/110  PO/119  AV/114

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Erik Bedard       L      33     3.72     4    4   15   15    77.3   72   32    7   28   70   104
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Charlie Morton    R      28     4.09    10   11   28   28   163.0  168   74   10   65  108    94
James McDonald    R      27     4.27     7    8   33   22   132.7  132   63   14   61  115    90
Jeff Karstens     R      29     4.72     6    9   27   22   137.3  152   72   21   32   81    82
Kyle McPherson    R      24     4.82     7   11   28   25   132.7  143   71   18   40   92    80
Brad Lincoln      R      27     4.90     7   11   27   26   139.7  161   76   16   38   87    79
Kevin Correia     R      31     5.00     7   12   26   25   142.3  158   79   20   43   86    77
Rudy Owens        L      24     5.04     6   11   23   23   119.7  139   67   15   33   71    77
Shairon Martis    R      25     5.11     5    9   25   25   132.0  152   75   15   53   82    75
Justin Wilson     L      24     5.17     6   12   28   22   118.3  127   68   12   73   82    75
Jo-Jo Reyes       L      27     5.29     4    8   22   19   102.0  120   60   14   38   61    73
Jeff Locke        L      24     5.31     6   12   29   28   142.3  165   84   17   59   95    73

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Joel Hanrahan     R      30     3.17     3    2   67    0    65.3   57   23    4   22   71   122
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Jason Grilli      R      35     3.61     3    3   50    0    52.3   47   21    5   22   55   107
Evan Meek         R      29     3.65     2    2   48    0    49.3   45   20    4   23   43   106
Chris Resop       R      29     3.81     3    3   55    0    52.0   47   22    5   23   57   101
Doug Slaten       L      32     4.03     2    2   44    0    38.0   39   17    3   13   30    96
Chris Leroux      R      28     4.30     4    5   52    0    69.0   75   33    5   25   50    90
Juan Cruz         R      33     4.50     2    2   37    0    34.0   32   17    4   19   31    86
Ryota Igarashi    R      33     4.53     2    3   56    0    57.7   57   29    6   29   50    85
Daniel McCutchen  R      29     4.56     3    5   71    0    81.0   86   41    8   34   48    85
Tony Watson       L      27     4.59     3    5   44    4    66.7   66   34    9   28   55    84
Danny Moskos      L      26     4.65     2    4   60    0    62.0   67   32    5   28   39    83
Tim Wood          R      29     4.91     1    2   50    0    51.3   57   28    5   23   29    79
Michael Dubee     R      26     4.96     3    5   49    0    69.0   79   38    8   25   45    78
Jose Diaz         R      28     5.10     1    2   45    0    42.3   46   24    4   25   30    76
Dan Meyer         L      30     5.15     1    2   37    0    36.7   38   21    5   22   25    75
Logan Kensing     R      29     5.36     1    2   38    0    43.7   50   26    6   17   30    72
Jared Hughes      R      26     5.40     4    9   40   13   100.0  119   60   12   41   61    71
Tim Alderson      R      23     5.43     2    4   52    1    68.0   78   41    9   32   41    71
Steven Jackson    R      30     5.78     2    5   46    3    62.3   76   40    8   28   31    67
Anthony Claggett  R      27     5.86     2    5   47    0    63.0   70   41    9   41   36    66
Duke Welker       R      26     6.04     2    5   45    0    50.7   54   34    6   45   33    64

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Rod Barajas          .240  .283  .416  1465  4638   520  1115   251     1   187   657   238   820     2    82
Derrek Lee           .276  .356  .479  2337  8508  1269  2351   507    36   382  1272  1001  1929   110   117
Andrew McCutchen     .262  .353  .428  2221  8331  1363  2184   468    87   247   987  1123  1468   291   111
Neil Walker          .262  .318  .416  1819  6818   881  1786   420    51   176   991   558  1189    87    98
Jose Tabata          .273  .349  .386  1673  6350  1076  1732   378    40    87   482   707  1022   265   100
Clint Barmes         .249  .299  .384  1347  4684   543  1167   254    20   113   519   280   793    64    78
Casey McGehee        .260  .310  .400  1231  4394   439  1141   227    11   122   594   336   689     1    91
Nate McLouth         .243  .332  .400  1354  4537   697  1104   249    25   138   471   527   809   141    96
Garrett Jones        .249  .313  .424  1021  3481   413   868   210     9   127   459   331   738    54    99

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Erik Bedard            81   71    0    3.92  248  246     1368 1301  596  137  537 1266    112
Kevin Correia          65   79    0    4.72  312  183     1197 1284  627  153  430  804     85
Jeff Karstens          51   78    0    4.65  246  176     1141 1253  590  175  289  650     85

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Andrew McCutchen  CF     61%  22%  13%   4%   1%       Lloyd Moseby     Andy Van Slyke        Ellis Burks
Jose Tabata       LF      5%  18%  20%  25%  32%        Chad Curtis      Jerome Walton       Mark Carreon
Derrek Lee        1B      5%  15%  18%  31%  32%         Phil Nevin        Richie Zisk      Dave Winfield
Alex Presley      LF      5%  15%  18%  26%  36%      Dave Martinez       Luis Polonia       Dwight Smith
Neil Walker       2B     29%  21%  19%  18%  13%      Travis Fryman     Kurt Stillwell       Jeff Blauser
Pedro Alvarez     3B     11%  27%  27%  21%  14%      Mark Reynolds        Nick Esasky    Mike Pagliarulo
Jake Fox          1B      3%  15%  21%  37%  25%         John Valle       Hank Blalock       Scott Bryant
Garrett Jones     RF      5%  15%  18%  26%  36%    Richard Hidalgo        Casey Blake       Jermaine Dye
Starling Marte    CF     11%  17%  28%  25%  18%         Adam Jones      Roberto Kelly     Rocco Baldelli
Nate McLouth      CF     17%  21%  30%  22%  10%        Ricky Ledee       Jon Nunnally    Bobby Del Greco
Nick Evans        1B      1%   7%  13%  35%  45%     Steve Stanicek         Jeff Baker         Stan Royer
Rod Barajas       C      15%  28%  24%  23%  10%       Carlton Fisk        Barry Lyons    Mike Macfarlane
Casey McGehee     3B      1%   8%  16%  28%  47%         Jason Wood        Tony Zuniga    Terry Jorgensen
Matt Hague        1B      0%   1%   3%  21%  75%         Tim Hummel      Josh Pressley       Mike Eylward
Josh Harrison     3B      1%   4%  11%  26%  58%        John Wehner      Granny Hamner   William Bergolla
Jeff Clement      1B      0%   1%   4%  22%  73%         Steve Dunn    Tyler Brilinski    Jay Kirkpatrick
Clint Barmes      SS      7%  11%  23%  30%  28%       Jesus Alfaro      Scott Brosius   Webster Garrison
Andy Marte        3B      1%   4%   8%  18%  70%      Seth Johnston          Tim Olson     Travis Metcalf
Chase d’Arnaud    SS      4%  10%  25%  31%  29%      Donnie Sadler      Chone Figgins  Brent Lillibridge
Eric Fryer        C       3%  10%  18%  33%  34%       Gerald Laird          Josh Paul  Robinson Chirinos
Yamaico Navarro   SS      5%   8%  20%  28%  39%        Josh Wilson      Michael Young        Greg Norton
Ramon Cabrera     C       1%   9%  17%  34%  39%         Gregg Zaun         John Ramos      Doug Newstrom
Robbie Grossman   RF      1%   3%   4%  10%  83%         Pat Tabler       Mike Edwards        Rich Becker
Jose Morales      C       1%   5%  12%  30%  53%       Dick Bertell       Dwight Lowry        Jerry Grote
Brandon Boggs     LF      0%   1%   2%   5%  92%       Jon Topolski        Nate Murphy        Jason Evans
Andrew Lambo      RF      0%   1%   2%   6%  90%         Lee Pruitt        John Santor        Carlos Yedo
Jordy Mercer      SS      1%   4%  12%  26%  57%        Ed Brinkman         Nick Ortiz     Clay Bellinger
Michael McKenry   C       1%   4%   8%  25%  62%     Ryan Jorgensen     Jeff Ontiveros         Del Marine
Josh Rodriguez    2B      2%   2%   3%   9%  84%         Odie Davis        Billy White    Douglas Bernier
Tony Sanchez      C       1%   5%   9%  25%  60%       Matt Treanor      Trey Lunsford       Danny Ardoin
Gorkys Hernandez  CF      0%   1%   4%  14%  81%       Carlos Gomez    Herm Winningham        Angel Pagan
Anderson Hernandez2B      0%   1%   1%   5%  93%        Joey Aragon         Doug Baker  Gary Miller-Jones
Wyatt Toregas     C       1%   3%   5%  15%  76%     Charlie Greene       Pedro Grifol       Chris Tremie
Gustavo Nunez     SS      1%   1%   2%   4%  93%         Rob Valido      Nelson Castro          Juan Sosa
Shelby Ford       1B      0%   0%   0%   1%  99%       Randy Rigsby        Greg Thomas       Darryl Denby

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Joel Hanrahan     RP      50%    42%     8%          Tom Henke      Curt Leskanic        Jeff Nelson
Jason Grilli      RP      20%    50%    30%       Jeff Parrett         Tom Gordon     Juan Berenguer
Evan Meek         RP      21%    51%    28%  Scott Fredrickson       Jason Bulger        Tyler Yates
Erik Bedard       SP      37%    42%    21%     Wilson Alvarez       Denny Neagle       Chuck Finley
Chris Resop       RP      16%    47%    36%       Jason Bulger          Karl Best    Kyle Farnsworth
Doug Slaten       RP      21%    37%    42%       Tommy Phelps         Mike Munoz     Eric Gunderson
Charlie Morton    SP      16%    57%    27%           Pat Rapp        Jim Beattie        Mike Krukow
James McDonald    SP       9%    51%    40%         Steve Mura         Mac Suzuki        Darryl Kile
Chris Leroux      RP       4%    36%    60%      Gary Majewski  Hipolito Pichardo       Jerry Dipoto
Juan Cruz         RP       9%    31%    60%         Roy Thomas       Toby Borland       Rich DeLucia
Ryota Igarashi    RP       3%    32%    65% Heathcliff Slocumb       Tim Stoddard      Doug Bochtler
Daniel McCutchen  RP       3%    25%    72%   Casey Hoorelbeke        Willie Eyre      Jose Santiago
Tony Watson       RP       2%    26%    73%           Tom Hall          Ron Mahay          Jim Poole
Danny Moskos      RP       3%    20%    77%     Pete Cappadona          Mike Bell    Anthony Ferrari
Jeff Karstens     SP       3%    29%    68%        Josh Towers       Louis McCall       Glenn Abbott
Kyle McPherson    SP       1%    25%    74%      Mark Brownson     Yusmeiro Petit        Andrew Good
Brad Lincoln      SP       1%    25%    74%        Josh Towers        Clay Parker     Nick Blackburn
Tim Wood          RP       2%    18%    80%         Cary Hiles       Weston Weber       Jake Robbins
Michael Dubee     RP       1%    15%    84%     Justin Huisman      Danny Rueckel     Jerry Spradlin
Kevin Correia     SP       1%    18%    80%    Dennis Martinez       Dave Johnson    Travis Driskill
Rudy Owens        SP       1%    17%    82%       Eddie Priest   Bobby Livingston        Abe Alvarez
Jose Diaz         RP       2%    17%    81%     Keith Shepherd         Ryan Baker         Bart Evans
Shairon Martis    SP       0%    13%    86%        Steve Kelly       Don Robinson       Mitch Talbot
Dan Meyer         RP       2%    12%    86%      Scott Watkins      Mike Kinnunen       Joey Eischen
Justin Wilson     SP       0%    11%    88%        Jordan Pals       Juan Ovalles     Jesus Martinez
Jo-Jo Reyes       SP       0%     8%    91%     Justin Hampson      Derek Manning     Michael Bacsik
Jeff Locke        SP       0%     7%    92%        Alex Graman       Mike Gosling      Norm Charlton
Logan Kensing     RP       1%     8%    91%        Roman Colon        Julio Manon          Milt Hill
Jared Hughes      RP       0%     3%    97%    Jeff Farnsworth      Matt Childers        Nick Masset
Tim Alderson      RP       0%     4%    96%            Ben Cox     Ben Grezlovski         Rick Davis
Steven Jackson    RP       0%     3%    97%      Barry Johnson       Mike Villano        Bob Scanlan
Anthony Claggett  RP       0%     2%    98%    Agustin Montero     Bill Pulsipher       James Warden
Duke Welker       RP       0%     2%    97%   Johnny Humphries       Scott Schanz          Bill Bene

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Andrew McCutchen        13%      30%      12%      17%      30%       8%      12%      43%
Jose Tabata             17%      15%       1%       2%       3%       0%       1%      28%
Derrek Lee               6%       5%       8%       0%       1%       4%       4%       0%
Alex Presley            14%       2%       3%       1%      52%       1%       1%       6%
Neil Walker              8%       3%       6%      20%       9%       3%       2%       1%
Pedro Alvarez            1%       3%      10%       0%       2%      20%       3%       0%
Jake Fox                 5%       2%       9%       0%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Garrett Jones            2%       1%       5%       3%       0%       4%       1%       2%
Starling Marte          18%       1%       2%       2%      34%       0%       1%      10%
Nate McLouth             1%      10%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       1%
Nick Evans               4%       1%       2%       2%       2%       1%       0%       0%
Rod Barajas              5%       0%      11%       0%       0%       1%       2%       0%
Casey McGehee            5%       1%       1%       2%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Matt Hague               3%       1%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Harrison           10%       0%       1%       4%      11%       0%       0%       8%
Jeff Clement             1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Clint Barmes             3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Andy Marte               1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chase d’Arnaud           0%       0%       0%       0%      43%       0%       0%      23%
Eric Fryer               1%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Yamaico Navarro          2%       1%       1%       0%       2%       0%       1%       0%
Ramon Cabrera            6%       2%       0%       0%       9%       0%       0%       0%
Robbie Grossman          1%       4%       0%       7%       2%       0%       0%       6%
Jose Morales             9%       6%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brandon Boggs            0%       2%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Andrew Lambo             0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jordy Mercer             0%       0%       0%       3%       2%       1%       0%       0%
Michael McKenry          0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Josh Rodriguez           1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Tony Sanchez             0%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Gorkys Hernandez         1%       0%       0%       0%      35%       0%       0%       2%
Anderson Hernandez       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       2%
Wyatt Toregas            3%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Gustavo Nunez            1%       0%       0%       0%      30%       0%       0%      16%
Shelby Ford              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Joel Hanrahan             41%        89%        95%         7%        92%
Jason Grilli              20%        62%        87%         1%        79%
Evan Meek                 21%        64%        39%         0%        84%
Erik Bedard               11%        56%        52%         2%        77%
Chris Resop               16%        55%        93%         1%        72%
Doug Slaten               14%        48%        17%         8%        76%
Charlie Morton             2%        39%         4%         0%        97%
James McDonald             1%        28%        37%         0%        71%
Chris Leroux               3%        27%         5%         2%        91%
Juan Cruz                  9%        30%        53%         0%        72%
Ryota Igarashi             3%        22%        41%         0%        67%
Daniel McCutchen           2%        19%         1%         1%        73%
Tony Watson                2%        17%        25%         0%        30%
Danny Moskos               2%        18%         1%         0%        86%
Jeff Karstens              0%        11%         0%        51%        18%
Kyle McPherson             0%         7%         2%         7%        28%
Brad Lincoln               0%         6%         0%        19%        58%
Tim Wood                   1%        15%         1%         1%        74%
Michael Dubee              0%         9%         1%         3%        65%
Kevin Correia              0%         5%         1%         8%        27%
Rudy Owens                 0%         4%         0%        21%        35%
Jose Diaz                  2%        13%         6%         0%        77%
Shairon Martis             0%         3%         0%         0%        55%
Dan Meyer                  2%         9%         6%         0%        50%
Justin Wilson              0%         3%         1%         0%        67%
Jo-Jo Reyes                0%         1%         0%         1%        31%
Jeff Locke                 0%         1%         0%         0%        47%
Logan Kensing              1%         6%         4%         4%        43%
Jared Hughes               0%         1%         0%         0%        50%
Tim Alderson               0%         3%         0%         0%        50%
Steven Jackson             0%         1%         0%         1%        40%
Anthony Claggett           0%         1%         0%         0%        36%
Duke Welker                0%         2%         2%         0%        64%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
Padres
A’s
Rangers
Marlins
Diamondbacks
Indians
Nationals
Blue Jays
Rays
Royals
Reds
Brewers
Orioles
Rockies
Braves
Astros
Cardinals
Dodgers
Twins
Giants
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 17, 2012 at 02:20 PM | 41 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: February 17, 2012 at 02:50 PM (#4063515)
The Pirates do seem to realize that they need a rotation that consists more of middling finesse pitchers


Not meant as a nitpick, but this should read "of more than", right, since it changes the meaning?

Unless the park is really favorable to Burnett, it doesn't seem that he'll be that helpful for the Pirates other than to eat innings, so I hope they aren't giving the Yankees much back.
   2. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 17, 2012 at 03:24 PM (#4063568)
Yes, "of more than" is correct. I need to stop tinkering with sentences mid-thought.
   3. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 17, 2012 at 03:27 PM (#4063574)
And yes, Burnett's projection improves to an ERA+ of 91 in Pittsburgh, 9-11, 4.22, 168.1 IP.
   4. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 17, 2012 at 03:28 PM (#4063575)
a little leaguer being thrown in against the ‘27 Yankees. Well, if they were alive, of course.

I think the little league pitcher would still do pretty good.

Babe Ruth would be 117 after all.
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 17, 2012 at 03:29 PM (#4063578)
Fair enough, if they weren't dead *and* not 120!
   6. jfish26101 Posted: February 17, 2012 at 03:35 PM (#4063595)
I believe you said you were hoping to have the comprehensive spreadsheet up before the weekend is over. You still hoping to do that?
   7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 17, 2012 at 03:41 PM (#4063602)
Fair enough, if they weren't dead *and* not 120!

It's like the old Ty Cobb joke.

"Hey Mr. Cobb, what do you think you'd hit if you played today?

'Oh, about .270."

".270?!?!? But, you were a career .360 hitter?"

'Yeah, but I'm 75 F***ing years old'
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 17, 2012 at 03:46 PM (#4063609)
I believe you said you were hoping to have the comprehensive spreadsheet up before the weekend is over. You still hoping to do that?

That's the plan. I might release all the batting and pitching projections first and then a version with all the defense a few days later.
   9. Bug Selig Posted: February 17, 2012 at 03:49 PM (#4063613)
Andy Marte is 28? GTFO! He was the #1 prospect in 1971, if I remember correctly.
   10. jfish26101 Posted: February 17, 2012 at 03:59 PM (#4063620)
Thanks Dan. That would be great.

Thinking ahead to the release of the disk, do you have any early estimates for the disk? I know last year you released two versions and I think that benefited almost everyone. The projection leagues got a version early enough to start on time and then you released a later version with active rosters, rotations, lineups, etc. Just thought I would ask so we could plan ahead a little.

Thanks again.
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 17, 2012 at 04:05 PM (#4063624)
Seems like a pretty decent projection for Pedro Alvarez, considering how disappointing 2011 was. Thoughts on him going forward?

I'll take the under on Bedard's IP.
   12. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 17, 2012 at 04:10 PM (#4063625)
Thinking ahead to the release of the disk, do you have any early estimates for the disk? I know last year you released two versions and I think that benefited almost everyone. The projection leagues got a version early enough to start on time and then you released a later version with active rosters, rotations, lineups, etc. Just thought I would ask so we could plan ahead a little

I would like to do that again, but have the "sim league" version out earlier, relative to the "final" disk. I think doing that, even if it was by accident due to delays, worked out well - sim players and guys who just want to play the 2012 season early have different ideal time frames and needs.
   13. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 17, 2012 at 04:19 PM (#4063633)

I would like to do that again, but have the "sim league" version out earlier, relative to the "final" disk. I think doing that, even if it was by accident due to delays, worked out well - sim players and guys who just want to play the 2012 season early have different ideal time frames and needs.


YES! Thanks so much Dan!
   14. andrewberg Posted: February 17, 2012 at 04:20 PM (#4063635)
Thanks, Dan. These are always great. I will anxiously and nerdily await the spreadsheet so I can fill in my own composite projection sheet for the guys who changed teams and didn't get a full projection.
   15. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 17, 2012 at 04:20 PM (#4063636)
Andy Marte is 28? GTFO! He was the #1 prospect in 1971, if I remember correctly.

He could still surprise us! He's 18 months younger than Mike Morse.
   16. jfish26101 Posted: February 17, 2012 at 04:24 PM (#4063641)
I'm not entirely sure what you mean but 7-10 days before the season begins should be adequate to get most projection leagues on schedule for the beginning of the season.

The easiest way for a league like us to setup is to release all players then add them one at a time. That is why accurate active rosters, rotations, lineups, etc. have little value.

EDIT: ...little value to us that is. I certainly understand why that would be important to others depending on what you are doing with the disk.

Thanks again.
   17. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 17, 2012 at 04:24 PM (#4063642)
Does this team have a single pitcher between ages 19 and 27 who will ever throw a big-league pitch?
   18. andrewberg Posted: February 17, 2012 at 04:25 PM (#4063644)
Andrew McCutchen CF   61%  22%  13%  4%  1%    Lloyd Moseby   Andy Van Slyke     Ellis Burks


Oh, that's where Andy Van Slyke went.
   19. Djetan303 Posted: February 17, 2012 at 04:39 PM (#4063656)
Is Ludwick going to get a projection? I realize he's a Red, but I don't see him listed there. Figured he would possibly be included here since he was somewhat of a late signing.. Thanks.
   20. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 17, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4063661)
If you don't mind, Dan, can you run projections for Mike Colla, Brock Holt, Phil Irwin, and Bryan Morris?

As always, your hard work is hugely appreciated.
   21. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 17, 2012 at 05:07 PM (#4063688)
I have two requests myself, if you please - though the second is a bit harder to justify than the other: OF/"2B" Adalberto Santos and C Charlie Cutler (might have too many catchers already to justify, I dunno).

Thanks so much for continuing to do this - I get excited every time I see a ZiPS release tweet on my phone.
   22. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 17, 2012 at 05:35 PM (#4063719)
C Charlie Cutler


Hey, yeah, I totally forgot about him.
   23. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 17, 2012 at 06:56 PM (#4063763)
The late signings always make it to the final spreadsheets.
   24. Mike Emeigh Posted: February 17, 2012 at 08:34 PM (#4063797)
Unless the park is really favorable to Burnett, it doesn't seem that he'll be that helpful for the Pirates other than to eat innings, so I hope they aren't giving the Yankees much back.


They aren't. Diego Moreno and Exicardo Cayones, neither of whom is likely to amount to much. Plus $13 mill of salary relief, which is what the Yankees really wanted.

This is probably another "hang on, the cavalry is coming soon" kind of year, just like the last two or three have been. What's bothersome is how old everyone already is; Walker, McCutchen, and Alvarez aren't that young, and by the time the arms arrive those guys might be about ready to be gone, with no impact bats to fill in behind (except maybe Bell - we will have to see). I get Cole, truly I do - but the Pirates would have been a hell of a lot better off with Starling or Lindor.

-- MWE

   25. jfish26101 Posted: February 17, 2012 at 11:20 PM (#4063858)
Moreno was looked at as a fairly promising RP not long ago.
   26. escabeche Posted: February 17, 2012 at 11:26 PM (#4063863)
The Pirates do seem to realize that they need a rotation that consists more of middling finesse pitchers and have an organizational strategy centered around high-upside arms. It’s a good strategy as risk is the friend of a team like the Pirates.


You know who else has this strategy? I'll give you three hints. They also built a stockpile of high-upside arms, they play in Baltimore, and they still stink.

   27. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 17, 2012 at 11:35 PM (#4063869)
You know who else has this strategy? I'll give you three hints. They also built a stockpile of high-upside arms, they play in Baltimore, and they still stink.

It worked out especially badly for then, but good ideas sometimes turn out badly. And the O's only really fully committed to rebuilding for a year, maybe two, and did very little to set up a system that could churn out players.
   28. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 17, 2012 at 11:39 PM (#4063871)
The Pirates seem waaaaaaaaaaay more committed to rebuilding than Baltimore ever was.

(Dan, here's a Coke.)

So, Pirates fans - what was the story with Moreno last year?
   29. threepointpi Posted: February 18, 2012 at 01:25 AM (#4063903)
Hey Dan, just wondering if we could get an Andrew McCutchen LF projection? You gave him a Vg/113 last year and I was banking on something similar this year for my sim team :p. If not, don't worry about it, just thought I'd ask!

-3.pi
   30. jfish26101 Posted: February 18, 2012 at 01:00 PM (#4064022)
The Pirates do seem to realize that they need a rotation that consists more of middling finesse pitchers and have an organizational strategy centered around high-upside arms. It’s a good strategy as risk is the friend of a team like the Pirates (and an enemy of teams like the Yankees or Red Sox).

I missed this originally until someone else quoted it.

I have always sort of believed the opposite. A team like the Pirates can't afford to take a BIG risk (or, to a lesser degree, many small risks) because they don't have the resources to makeup for failure as easily as large market teams.

For example, if the Pirates were to sign Darvish (posting fee + contract) and he busts, that is a significant amount of their payroll gone and unlikely to be replaced. If the Yankees or Red Sox sign a player like Darvish and the same happens, it isn't nearly the same kind of blow to the organization.

I certainly understand that if a move like that works out for a small market team like the Pirates (signing a player like Darvish and he hits his ceiling resulting in a HUGE value as these deals are below market value), it could be the difference between being a contender and continuing the nearly 2 decade long streak of losing seasons. I was just always of the opinion that small market teams had to control their risk more than a large market team that has the resources to easily makeup for throwing $50-$80m down the drain (Igawa comes to mind). Increasing the draft or international budget is one good example of managing your risk as it is still risky but the players are relatively cheap and the payoff could far exceed the upfront costs. Typically you put most of your eggs in a few baskets and hope 1 or 2 hit. A deal like Burnett or a FA signing like Bedard are also good risks as long as you don't spread yourself too thin.

Teams like the Phillies and Rangers (more recently) are interesting because they are capitalizing on recent success by continually increasing their payroll which is exactly what you want your team to do. I have sort of thought of them as mid market teams so it will be interesting to see if their spending adversely affects them down the road.

Anyway, I found the quote interesting.
   31. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 18, 2012 at 01:30 PM (#4064042)
So, Pirates fans - what was the story with Moreno last year?


Same story as it ever was. He throws hard and has two good pitches, but he doesn't locate well within the zone, and he's not all that mature or dedicated to his craft. Might make it, might not.
   32. Greg K Posted: February 18, 2012 at 02:25 PM (#4064064)
I have always sort of believed the opposite. A team like the Pirates can't afford to take a BIG risk (or, to a lesser degree, many small risks) because they don't have the resources to makeup for failure as easily as large market teams.

I think in this case there are two different kinds of "risk".

You're talking about big contract risk. Paying a lot of money for Darvish.
I think the quote is referring more to hard-throwing, high-ceiling pitching prospects over more predictable, non-star potential arms.
   33. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: February 18, 2012 at 05:07 PM (#4064120)
Teams like the Phillies and Rangers (more recently) are interesting because they are capitalizing on recent success by continually increasing their payroll which is exactly what you want your team to do. I have sort of thought of them as mid market teams so it will be interesting to see if their spending adversely affects them down the road.

Ummm, Dallas and Philadelphia are the 4th and 5th largest MSAs in the US, and the two largest with only one team.

They were always large market. You only view them as mid-market b/c they were cheap and poorly run.
   34. jfish26101 Posted: February 18, 2012 at 07:59 PM (#4064182)
Eh, perhaps it is a poor choice of words but those markets also weren't much of baseball markets until recently. Obviously this stuff is cyclical in nearly all situations (few teams have such a strong following that they get full support regardless of performance) but neither team were spending like this just a few seasons ago. I personally am very interested to see how the teams adjust their payrolls in a few years and whether they can sustain this type of spending.

Of course you ignored the main point of the post but I got around to it far too late as discussion in these threads only lasts about 48-72 hours.

Greg, you are correct, there are different types of risk. I was just curious if Dan generally feels small market teams should be taking even more risks than large market teams.
   35. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: February 18, 2012 at 08:19 PM (#4064187)
If their goal is to make the playoffs, then they should.
   36. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 18, 2012 at 09:58 PM (#4064214)
Greg, you are correct, there are different types of risk. I was just curious if Dan generally feels small market teams should be taking even more risks than large market teams.

Yes. A teams likely to compete needs certainty, a team not likely to compete needs upside. That's because at the ends of the scale, the relative value of wins and losses changes. If you have a 95-win team, adding 5 wins is far less helpful than losing 5 wins hurts. If you have an 80-win team, adding 5 wins is far more helpful than losing 5 wins hurts.

I'm not talking about big money contracts here, but from a production standpoint - the certainty of a Pujols is most valuable to a good team while the upside of a Bedard is most valuable to a bad team.
   37. Mike Emeigh Posted: February 18, 2012 at 10:40 PM (#4064223)
I was just curious if Dan generally feels small market teams should be taking even more risks than large market teams.


Not only does Dan feel that way, so do I. Not big dollar risks, but when they have the choice between a college player and a higher-upside, lower-floor high school player for the same dollar amount, they should generally opt for the latter. That's why I argued at the time that the Pirates should have taken Hosmer instead of Alvarez, why I argued at the time that the Pirates should have drafted Heyward when they had the chance (certainly over Moskos, but even over Wieters when most Pirate fans were arguing for him), and why I believe they should have taken Lindor or Starling last year instead of Cole.

Basic draft #101:
-- You need superstars to win.
-- The cheapest superstars are the ones you develop yourself.
-- It's much harder (and more expensive) to find a superstar hitter on the open market than it is to find a superstar pitcher.

hence

-- When you have the chance to draft a hitter with superstar potential, you better take it. Worry about where he'll play later.

-- MWE
   38. jfish26101 Posted: February 18, 2012 at 11:31 PM (#4064239)
True and I mention the draft, Bedard...even Burnett to a lesser degree though, as Dan says, Burnett would be more valuable to a more competitive team. I definitely agree with the "team not likely to compete needs upside" comment but giving Josh Bell $5m doesn't seem like a lot of risk in the scheme of things.
   39. The Robby Hammock District (Dan Lee) Posted: February 20, 2012 at 06:32 AM (#4064609)
Does this team have a single pitcher between ages 19 and 27 who will ever throw a big-league pitch?
Moskos. Otherwise...maybe not.
   40. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 20, 2012 at 10:16 AM (#4064639)
Moskos. Otherwise...maybe not.


Well, there's also that Gerrit Cole fella...
   41. Dangerous Dean Posted: February 20, 2012 at 11:02 AM (#4064653)
With the way that ZIPS abuses young players, Starling Marte's projection is practically a wolf whistle to the kid.

All kidding aside, thanks for doing this, Dan. It is a fun way to wait for Spring Training.

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