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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

2012 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres

I can understand a team trading Mat Latos for quality prospects. I can understand picking up Carlos Quentin and trading off a surplus 1B/OF prospect for starting pitching depth. What I don't understand is doing the things described in the first two sentences in the same offseason. Part of the reason you acquire a slugger for the short-term and trade for depth is because you have Mat Latos on the team, after all. I had the same puzzlement last year as the Padres traded Adrian Gonzalez (who was scheduled to make peanuts in 2011) and then followed it up by bringing in Orlando Hudson, Jason Bartlett, Aaron Harang, and Brad Hawpe, moves that make sense if you have, well, Adrian Gonzalez in the middle of your lineup.

The bullpen is very solid and deep and will continue to be in 2012, even without Mike Adams. The offense is not very good, but it wasn't quite as bad as last year's run rank of 15th suggests - most of the best options missed time, the bench was pretty awful, and of course, the park makes everything look superficially much worse. Conversely, the starters were much weaker than it looks at first glance - thanks to park and continued decline in NL offense, Stauffer's 3.73 ERA and Clayton Richard's 3.88 were actually very ordinary. It's still hard to get acclimated after spending all my adult years in an era of very high offense.

No doubt, the Yonder Alonso projection will be very unpopular, but he's really never hit like a top 1B prospect in the minors, at least to the degree where it was consistent with his place in the power rankings. Now, those numbers look far worse than they are thanks to the park, but it's hard to see Alonso as a top-flight 1B without hitting for more power - not just HRs, but doubles, too. A first baseman with disappointing power can be an excellent player, but that's usually a result of BA, walks, and defense. ZiPS still likes Alonso long-term, but thinks that there will be an adjustment period and doesn't see Alonso as a likely star, but on the level that people saw James Loney progressing to after 2008/2009.

The Padres are probably the favorite for last place, but they're not really a terrible team in the vein of the Astros, and in a weak division, a little luck should take them above the Dodgers and maybe to .500. They'll need some fortune, though.

Next Up: Pittsburgh Pirates, Big Ass Spreadsheet, v0.8

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Carlos Quentin    R    RF   29   .254 .344 .458 123 437  62 111  27   1  20  74  41  75   3   1  123
Chase Headley     B    3B   28   .270 .351 .392 144 518  64 140  29   2  10  58  62 130  13   3  108
Cameron Maybin    R    CF   25   .255 .324 .383 147 538  87 137  23   8  10  50  52 140  27   6   98
Yonder Alonso     L    LF   25   .256 .329 .401 130 446  47 114  26   3  11  56  49  93   7   4  104
Jesus Guzman      R    1B   28   .266 .324 .399 138 511  63 136  29   3  11  74  41 102   7   4  102
Will Venable      L    RF   29   .239 .308 .396 141 457  68 109  18   6  14  58  43 128  21   4   96
Kyle Blanks       R    LF   25   .233 .315 .407 122 430  62 100  22   4  15  67  45 139   3   1  101
James Darnell     R    3B   25   .243 .324 .390 129 490  61 119  26   2  14  66  57 110   3   2   99
Orlando Hudson    B    2B   34   .249 .329 .364 123 442  65 110  19   4   8  44  52  86  11   2   95
Chris Denorfia    R    RF   31   .259 .320 .381 128 370  48  96  18   3   7  30  33  63  11   5   96
Jedd Gyorko       R    3B   23   .251 .310 .391 129 514  75 129  28   1  14  71  43 124   7   2   95
Nick Hundley      R    C    28   .243 .306 .406  97 325  39  79  17   3  10  41  29  90   2   2   98
Jeremy Hermida    L    RF   28   .236 .317 .384 126 424  49 100  20   2  13  46  46 121   3   1   96
Vincent Belnome   L    2B   24   .234 .332 .378 110 415  58  97  20   2  12  59  60 125   1   3   99
Jason Bartlett    R    SS   32   .258 .324 .345 136 507  68 131  24   4   4  45  47  87  17   8   88
Yasmani Grandal   B    C    23   .238 .325 .357 124 454  51 108  24   0  10  52  56 143   0   1   91
Mark Kotsay       L    RF   36   .254 .307 .355  93 256  21  65  12   1   4  28  20  30   2   1   85
Jaff Decker       L    LF   22   .203 .315 .367 131 507  74 103  23   3  18  80  78 176   9   6   91
John Baker        L    C    31   .224 .317 .339  56 165  22  37   8   1   3  13  21  44   0   0   85
Logan Forsythe    R    2B   25   .224 .326 .322 126 447  64 100  20   3   6  45  62 130  12   4   83
Blake Tekotte     L    CF   25   .219 .302 .358 146 562  76 123  24   6  14  58  62 173  25  14   84
Everth Cabrera    B    SS   25   .232 .307 .315 101 375  55  87  15   5   2  28  38  91  29  10   75
Edinson Rincon    R    3B   21   .228 .288 .348 128 509  61 116  27   2  10  61  41 123   1   2   77
Andy Parrino      B    SS   26   .207 .298 .322 128 429  58  89  19   3   8  45  51 144   5   2   74
Jason Hagerty     B    C    24   .211 .301 .323 126 473  59 100  25   2   8  56  54 159   2   3   75
Jonathan Galvez   R    2B   21   .213 .281 .327 148 560  69 119  25   3  11  67  48 189  24  10   70
Rymer Liriano     R    RF   21   .221 .278 .335 153 597  69 132  27   7   9  59  44 172  41  24   71
Bobby Kielty      B    RF   35   .208 .281 .336  46 149  13  31   7   0   4  18  15  46   0   1   72
Brad Davis        R    C    29   .219 .272 .328 106 360  33  79  19   1   6  39  25  99   2   1   67
Jeudy Valdez      R    SS   23   .222 .265 .339 150 625  81 139  30   5  11  79  34 160  25  15   68
Micah Owings      R    P    29   .211 .231 .368  39  38   4   8   1   1   1   4   1  15   0   0   65
Pedro Feliz       R    3B   37   .234 .246 .327  65 205  20  48   8   1   3  22   4  25   0   1   59

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Carlos Quentin                                               PO/146          PO/146
Chase Headley                                 AV/83           AV/91
Cameron Maybin                                                       VG/110
Yonder Alonso                FR/117          PO/140           PO/90
Jesus Guzman                 AV/120          PO/125          AV/109          AV/118
Will Venable                                                 VG/100  PO/135  VG/100
Kyle Blanks                   FR/96                           FR/87           PO/90
James Darnell                AV/118          AV/148           AV/91          FR/115
Orlando Hudson                        AV/70
Chris Denorfia                                                VG/96   FR/91  VG/101
Jedd Gyorko                          PO/118   AV/96
Nick Hundley             VG
Jeremy Hermida                                               FR/115           AV/51
Vincent Belnome              AV/108  PO/110  PO/142
Jason Bartlett                                        AV/96
Yasmani Grandal          VG
Mark Kotsay                   AV/86                          FR/141   PO/97  FR/126
Jaff Decker                                                  FR/122  PO/137  FR/128
John Baker               FR
Logan Forsythe                       FR/163  VG/118  PO/170
Blake Tekotte                                                AV/114  FR/123  AV/117
Everth Cabrera                       AV/105          AV/128
Edinson Rincon                               FR/218
Andy Parrino                 AV/113  FR/109  AV/112  PO/109   FR/96            100/
Jason Hagerty            AV   FR/91
Jonathan Galvez                      FR/195          PO/156
Rymer Liriano                                                        AV/171  VG/237
Bobby Kielty                                                 FR/106          FR/106
Brad Davis               AV
Jeudy Valdez                         AV/173          AV/167
Micah Owings
Pedro Feliz                  AV/122           AV/76

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Cory Luebke       L      27     3.59     9    8   24   24   143.0  127   57   14   49  130   101
Andrew Cashner    R      25     3.62     4    3   31   11    64.7   57   26    4   32   53   100
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Tim Stauffer      R      30     3.79     8    8   24   24   142.3  137   60   14   46  100    96
Robert Erlin      L      21     3.82     6    6   28   23   132.0  128   56   16   30  110    95
Edinson Volquez   R      28     3.98     6    7   22   22   124.3  114   55   11   69  118    91
Joseph Wieland    R      22     4.06     8    9   27   26   146.3  157   66   14   34  103    89
Clayton Richard   L      28     4.10     8    9   24   24   138.3  138   63   12   55   95    89
Anthony Bass      R      24     4.36     6    8   36   21   119.7  125   58   12   44   77    83
Dustin Moseley    R      30     4.40     5    6   17   16    94.0  100   46    9   33   54    82
Micah Owings      R      29     4.47     5    7   33   11    90.7   89   45   10   43   65    81
Juan Oramas       L      22     4.59     6    9   24   21   102.0  103   52   14   41   87    79
Matt Palmer       R      33     4.90     5    9   26   16   108.3  118   59   11   51   68    74
Simon Castro      R      24     4.98     5    9   24   24   121.0  135   67   15   45   82    73
Jose De Paula     L      22     5.10     5    9   24   19    95.3  107   54   10   43   57    71
Casey Kelly       R      22     5.40     4    9   25   25   116.7  143   70   11   51   73    67
Jeff Suppan       R      37     5.40     5    9   24   20   120.0  145   72   16   46   58    67
John Van BenschoteR      32     5.58     2    4   13    6    40.3   48   25    5   20   24    65
Josh Geer         R      29     5.73     3    7   16   14    86.3  108   55   15   21   38    63
Matt Buschmann    R      28     5.85     4   10   33   17   112.3  138   73   14   53   66    62

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Huston Street     R      28     2.93     4    2   61    0    58.3   49   19    6   14   64   124
Joe Thatcher      L      30     2.94     1    1   47    0    33.7   27   11    2   14   39   123
Ernesto Frieri    R      26     2.97     3    2   64    0    66.7   50   22    5   36   82   122
Luke Gregerson    R      28     3.12     4    3   69    0    66.3   57   23    5   23   64   116
Brad Brach        R      26     3.29     5    4   69    0    68.3   60   25    6   21   70   110
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Josh Spence       L      24     3.39     3    3   76    0    71.7   56   27    7   36   71   107
Bradley Boxberger R      24     3.47     3    3   58    0    59.7   46   23    5   34   74   105
Erik Hamren       R      25     3.49     3    3   65    0    77.3   68   30    7   31   71   104
Cory Burns        R      24     3.63     3    3   58    0    57.0   53   23    5   22   52   100
Miles Mikolas     R      23     3.95     3    3   63    0    73.0   73   32    6   23   54    92
Nick Vincent      R      25     4.13     3    4   61    0    72.0   68   33    8   30   63    88
Dale Thayer       R      31     4.30     3    4   56    0    67.0   70   32    7   22   48    84
Greg Burke        R      29     4.92     2    3   59    0    67.7   72   37    8   33   52    74
Alex Hinshaw      L      29     5.06     1    2   49    0    48.0   45   27    4   45   48    72
Craig Italiano    R      25     5.20     3    5   56    0    62.3   70   36    6   36   39    70
Eddie Kunz        R      26     5.93     2    6   46    4    74.3   86   49    8   54   34    61

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Mark Kotsay          .277  .332  .406  1885  6602   807  1827   363    49   130   740   561   767   102    96
Chase Headley        .265  .339  .382  1863  6714   773  1781   361    27   122   728   726  1497   150   102
Orlando Hudson       .267  .335  .396  1809  6581   898  1760   335    75   121   706   658  1115   120    94
Cameron Maybin       .249  .319  .378  1858  6750  1071  1680   297    81   137   606   648  1664   262    94
Jason Bartlett       .263  .325  .354  1639  5998   786  1579   280    50    55   530   493   921   211    87
Carlos Quentin       .248  .337  .448  1563  5489   759  1363   320    12   250   904   501   883    38   112
Jeremy Hermida       .244  .322  .392  1348  4449   518  1087   220    19   133   503   465  1124    36    94
Nick Hundley         .243  .302  .397  1215  4088   451   992   211    47   109   488   340   982    26    94
Kyle Blanks          .227  .313  .395  1228  4237   601   961   219    31   144   634   465  1292    25    97
Will Venable         .242  .309  .392  1096  3519   496   850   130    45   103   428   320   913   146    95

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Edinson Volquez        76   77    0    4.29  258  254     1407 1308  670  145  782 1347     90

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Carlos Quentin    RF     30%  37%  18%  11%   5%        Kevin Mench     Bubba Trammell       Johnny Rizzo
Chase Headley     3B     20%  31%  25%  17%   7%       Jeff Cirillo       Brook Jacoby      Gil McDougald
Cameron Maybin    CF     22%  24%  29%  18%   7%      Roberto Kelly    Marquis Grissom        Marlon Byrd
Yonder Alonso     LF      5%  19%  20%  25%  32%      Paul McAnulty        Rusty Greer       Wally Joyner
Jesus Guzman      1B      2%  11%  18%  37%  32%         Pat Tabler    Terry Whitfield       George Scott
Will Venable      RF      7%  19%  20%  24%  30%     Michael Tucker        Brant Brown     Andy Tomberlin
Kyle Blanks       LF      3%  15%  19%  26%  37%     Chin-Feng Chen        Jeff Conine        Ben Johnson
James Darnell     3B      6%  18%  25%  27%  25%   Fritzie Connally          Tom Evans  Craig Worthington
Orlando Hudson    2B     19%  15%  19%  24%  23%   Mickey Morandini      Mark McLemore      Tony Phillips
Chris Denorfia    RF      2%   8%  12%  23%  55%      Dave Martinez      Barry Bonnell            Hal Lee
Jedd Gyorko       3B      6%  15%  22%  27%  31%     Fernando Tatis       Brook Jacoby          Joe Crede
Nick Hundley      C      15%  29%  23%  21%  12%       Chad Moeller         Angel Pena        Pat Borders
Jeremy Hermida    RF      2%   9%  13%  25%  51%       Brian Lesher         Brad Hawpe     Chris Wakeland
Vincent Belnome   2B     16%  15%  19%  25%  25%          Tom Evans         Bret Boone         Jeff Manto
Jason Bartlett    SS     10%  18%  31%  26%  15%       Adam Kennedy        Bobby Adams     Billy Urbanski
Yasmani Grandal   C       7%  21%  25%  29%  17%Jarrod Saltalamacch           Al PardoMaximiliano Ramirez
Mark Kotsay       RF      1%   3%   5%  13%  79%     Larry Biittner       Mike Kingery        Joe Orsulak
Jaff Decker       LF      4%   8%   9%  15%  64%    Dernell Stenson    Travis Ishikawa         Ty Griffin
John Baker        C       2%  12%  19%  31%  35%          Mike Rose        Brad Gulden       Dwight Lowry
Logan Forsythe    2B      4%   6%  12%  26%  52%       Joe Lawrence       David Newhan         Paul Runge
Blake Tekotte     CF      3%   6%  15%  25%  50%      Louie Meadows      Brian Simmons       Dan Ortmeier
Everth Cabrera    SS      2%   9%  26%  32%  30%        Bob Meacham      Harry Chappas         Gary Weiss
Edinson Rincon    3B      1%   3%   6%  12%  78%         Chris Bass        John Hattig          Mike Bell
Andy Parrino      SS      2%   4%  12%  26%  56%         Ross Jones      Steve Fanning       Craig Kuzmic
Jason Hagerty     C       1%   4%   9%  27%  59%   Mickey TettletonMaximiliano Ramirez       John Gibbons
Jonathan Galvez   2B      3%   2%   4%  11%  80%          Bert Pena       Jay Canizaro     Sean Rodriguez
Rymer Liriano     RF      0%   1%   2%   6%  92%      Randy Kutcher        David Green      Rusty Tillman
Bobby Kielty      RF      0%   1%   2%   4%  93%        Dann Howitt      Alan Cockrell         Tony Clark
Brad Davis        C       1%   2%   4%  17%  76%   Brandon Marsters         Bill Hayes        Craig Tatum
Jeudy Valdez      SS      3%   3%   8%  16%  71%         Edwin Diaz        Luis Rivera      Caonabo Cosme

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Huston Street     RP      48%    42%    10%      Mike Schooler           Rod Beck      Rusty Meacham
Joe Thatcher      RP      50%    38%    12% Jason Christiansen    George Sherrill         Rod Scurry
Ernesto Frieri    RP      46%    44%    10%       Mark Littell       Bryan Harvey    Buddy Hernandez
Luke Gregerson    RP      38%    49%    13%        Brad Clontz          Tim Scott          Mel Rojas
Brad Brach        RP      34%    50%    17%        Luis DeLeon         Heath Bell      Darren Holmes
Josh Spence       RP      26%    48%    27%        John Rocker      Darren Oliver       Kent Mercker
Bradley Boxberger RP      28%    46%    25%      Jose Valverde       Ryan Bukvich       Brian Bruney
Erik Hamren       RP      22%    48%    30%       Bert Roberge         Jeff Innis   Scott Strickland
Cory Luebke       SP      29%    56%    15%          Ted Lilly        Steve Avery       Jeff Francis
Andrew Cashner    SP      18%    44%    38%      Murry Dickson       Richie Lewis          Mel Rojas
Cory Burns        RP      17%    46%    37%       Chad Orvella        Chris Resop       Erik Bennett
Tim Stauffer      SP      19%    56%    25%      Ismael Valdez          Paul Byrd        Kris Benson
Robert Erlin      SP      20%    53%    27%     Atlee Hammaker      Rheal Cormier        Kirk Rueter
Miles Mikolas     RP       8%    46%    46%  Franquelis Osoria       Jose Acevedo       Charles Dale
Edinson Volquez   SP      13%    50%    37%         Bobby Witt        Darryl Kile  Juan Eichelberger
Joseph Wieland    SP      10%    54%    36%         Chris Holt   Andy Sonnanstine        Joe Blanton
Clayton Richard   SP       8%    45%    48%    Scott Sauerbeck          Dave Otto      Chris Hammond
Nick Vincent      RP       5%    31%    65%      Chris Britton         Mike Adams         Pat Neshek
Dale Thayer       RP       4%    26%    70%        Jay Tessmer      Brian Schmack      Jack Cressend
Anthony Bass      SP       5%    37%    58%        Kameron Loe        Ramon Morel     Shawn Sedlacek
Dustin Moseley    SP       7%    36%    58%       Frank Campos       Heath Totten       Robert Ellis
Micah Owings      RP       1%    19%    80%         Alan Benes      Omar Olivares Anastacio Martinez
Juan Oramas       SP       3%    23%    73%        Scott Lewis     Michael Tejera          Dan Meyer
Matt Palmer       SP       1%    14%    85%         Russ Ortiz          Spec Shea         Alan Benes
Greg Burke        RP       0%     7%    93%   Jamie Brewington         Mark Small       Mike Villano
Simon Castro      SP       0%    10%    90%          Tony Pena      Brandon Leese        Bill Fulton
Alex Hinshaw      RP       1%     9%    91%         Bill White        Kevin Tolar       Tim Fortugno
Jose De Paula     SP       0%     7%    92%        Ryan Spille       Rich Rundles        Wes Whisler
Craig Italiano    RP       0%     4%    95%      Mike Trombley       Stan Bahnsen       Kevin Joseph
Casey Kelly       SP       0%     3%    97%         Mike Mason      Matt Achilles         Joe Housey
Jeff Suppan       SP       1%     6%    94%    Dennis Springer         Aaron Sele       Kevin Jarvis
John Van BenschoteSP       0%     5%    95%     Chris Nichting       Elmer Riddle         Mike Saipe
Josh Geer         SP       0%     3%    97%       Mark Johnson      Paul Mitchell       Glenn Abbott
Matt Buschmann    SP       0%     1%    99%    Todd Van Poppel       Elliot Brown       Jason Secoda
Eddie Kunz        RP       0%     0%   100%      Julien Tucker     Jeremy Salyers        Scott Suehr

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Carlos Quentin           4%      13%      14%       1%       0%       5%      14%       0%
Chase Headley           11%      18%       1%       2%       0%       0%       3%       5%
Cameron Maybin           3%       4%       0%       0%      32%       0%       1%      33%
Yonder Alonso            3%       5%       0%       0%       1%       0%       1%       1%
Jesus Guzman             8%       3%       1%       1%       1%       0%       1%       1%
Will Venable             0%       0%       1%       0%      15%       1%       0%      12%
Kyle Blanks              0%       1%       1%       0%       2%       1%       0%       0%
James Darnell            1%       3%       1%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%
Orlando Hudson           3%       7%       1%       0%       3%       0%       2%       0%
Chris Denorfia           6%       3%       1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Jedd Gyorko              2%       1%       2%       1%       0%       2%       1%       1%
Nick Hundley             2%       2%       4%       0%       1%       0%       2%       0%
Jeremy Hermida           0%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Vincent Belnome          0%       6%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Jason Bartlett           5%       4%       0%       0%       6%       0%       0%       6%
Yasmani Grandal          1%       4%       1%       0%       0%       1%       1%       0%
Mark Kotsay              6%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Jaff Decker              0%       3%       3%       0%       3%       6%       2%       1%
John Baker               2%       7%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Logan Forsythe           0%       3%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Blake Tekotte            0%       0%       0%       0%      12%       1%       0%      28%
Everth Cabrera           0%       1%       0%       0%       7%       0%       0%      38%
Edinson Rincon           0%       0%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Andy Parrino             0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Jason Hagerty            0%       1%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Jonathan Galvez          0%       0%       1%       0%       3%       2%       1%      22%
Rymer Liriano            0%       0%       0%       2%      25%       1%       0%      88%
Bobby Kielty             1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brad Davis               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jeudy Valdez             0%       0%       2%       3%      11%       2%       0%      29%
Pedro Feliz              3%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Huston Street             48%        85%        94%        49%        62%
Joe Thatcher              50%        81%        93%         4%        91%
Ernesto Frieri            38%        86%        99%         0%        87%
Luke Gregerson            30%        77%        73%         6%        88%
Brad Brach                27%        72%        86%        13%        83%
Josh Spence               20%        67%        77%         0%        74%
Bradley Boxberger         22%        68%        98%         0%        81%
Erik Hamren               16%        63%        57%         1%        84%
Cory Luebke                6%        58%        56%         2%        78%
Andrew Cashner            18%        55%        32%         1%        90%
Cory Burns                12%        55%        54%         3%        79%
Tim Stauffer               3%        39%         3%         4%        77%
Robert Erlin               4%        41%        27%        50%        46%
Miles Mikolas              5%        39%         6%         8%        83%
Edinson Volquez            2%        30%        66%         0%        84%
Joseph Wieland             1%        28%         3%        46%        77%
Clayton Richard            1%        23%         2%         0%        81%
Nick Vincent               3%        29%        43%         0%        54%
Dale Thayer                3%        24%         4%         8%        65%
Anthony Bass               1%        14%         0%         2%        63%
Dustin Moseley             1%        18%         0%         4%        65%
Micah Owings               1%        13%         4%         0%        60%
Juan Oramas                0%        10%        33%         0%        28%
Matt Palmer                0%         4%         3%         1%        71%
Greg Burke                 0%         5%        11%         0%        57%
Simon Castro               0%         2%         1%         1%        44%
Alex Hinshaw               0%         6%        76%         0%        77%
Jose De Paula              0%         1%         0%         0%        69%
Craig Italiano             0%         3%         0%         0%        76%
Casey Kelly                0%         0%         0%         0%        72%
Jeff Suppan                0%         2%         1%         3%        36%
John Van Benschote         0%         3%         4%         1%        45%
Josh Geer                  0%         1%         0%        41%        14%
Matt Buschmann             0%         0%         0%         0%        48%
Eddie Kunz                 0%         0%         0%         0%        62%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
A's
Rangers
Marlins
Diamondbacks
Indians
Nationals
Blue Jays
Rays
Royals
Reds
Brewers
Orioles
Rockies
Braves
Astros
Cardinals
Dodgers
Twins
Giants
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 15, 2012 at 01:45 PM | 29 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Moe Greene Posted: February 15, 2012 at 02:15 PM (#4061661)
What do Kevin Mench, Bubba Trammell, and Johnny Rizzo?
   2. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: February 15, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4061673)
What a bizarre staff. A billion decent relievers, and both decent starters are actually relievers making the conversion.
   3. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 15, 2012 at 02:40 PM (#4061688)
Wow, that's a great projection for Erlin. Any chance he breaks with the team?
   4. Yonder Alonso in misguided trousers (cardinal) Posted: February 15, 2012 at 02:57 PM (#4061708)
That offense is.... well, the pitching looks good.
   5. Moe Greene Posted: February 15, 2012 at 03:01 PM (#4061716)
The first comment should say, What do Kevin Mench, Bubba Trammell, and Johnny Rizzo have in common? Haven't been able to edit it.
   6. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 15, 2012 at 03:04 PM (#4061720)
he's really never hit like a top 1B prospect in the minors, at least to the degree where it was consistent with his place in the power rankings


THANK YOU.

I've been saying this for months - I'm glad to finally find someone else who agrees.
   7. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 15, 2012 at 03:11 PM (#4061729)
Couple of requests, if you don't mind: Pedro Hernandez and Matt Clark.
   8. JPWF1313 Posted: February 15, 2012 at 03:30 PM (#4061740)
No doubt, the Yonder Alonso projection will be very unpopular


Actually it looks quite reasonable to me.

   9. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 15, 2012 at 03:33 PM (#4061743)
As I said on Twitter, if Miles Mikolas ends up being successful in the majors, I'm absolutely going to give him the nickname Mayhem.
   10. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: February 15, 2012 at 03:47 PM (#4061760)
This team looks incredibly boring.
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 15, 2012 at 04:15 PM (#4061791)
No doubt, the Yonder Alonso projection will be very unpopular


Actually it looks quite reasonable to me.


That's about what I thought he would hit. Before the trade to Petco.
   12. Bob Evans Posted: February 15, 2012 at 05:41 PM (#4061861)
Couple of requests, if you don't mind: Pedro Hernandez and Matt Clark.

Technically, I would assume Hernandez would be one of the ChiSox projections, except those were done before Q went to the Padres for Hernandez and Castro.
   13. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: February 15, 2012 at 07:07 PM (#4061943)
Jaff Decker!! He's an absolute superstar in my OOTP simulations--an Ichiro/throwback type who regularly puts up .370/430/540 lines.
   14. Dan Posted: February 15, 2012 at 07:18 PM (#4061946)
What's Rizzo's projection in Wrigley, since he was traded between the Cubs' forecasts and the Padres'?
   15. Austin Posted: February 15, 2012 at 11:10 PM (#4062139)
I love that you ran a projection for Owings as a hitter.
   16. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: February 15, 2012 at 11:26 PM (#4062145)
I'll take the under on Owings' triples.

Player request: Drew Cumberland (though that's admittedly more out of curiosity than big league readiness). .365 for Lake Elsinore at age 21 in 2010, missed all of last season. Not a lot of power, not a lot of walks contact guy.

As for Belnome, I like his range a bit more than that, but he is kind of lumpen.
   17. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 16, 2012 at 12:37 AM (#4062175)
Technically, I would assume Hernandez would be one of the ChiSox projections, except those were done before Q went to the Padres for Hernandez and Castro.


Yep. Just wanted to make sure that he didn't get forgotten.
   18. Shalimar Posted: February 16, 2012 at 09:52 AM (#4062290)
What does it say about Oakland when the Padres offense is "not very good", but every single starter except SS has a better projected OPS+ than the A's best hitter?
   19. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: February 16, 2012 at 10:10 AM (#4062304)
Jeremy Hemida is only 28? He prospected forever and has been a bust forever or so it seemed.
   20. JJ1986 Posted: February 16, 2012 at 10:14 AM (#4062307)
Jeremy Hemida is only 28? He prospected forever and has been a bust forever or so it seemed.


I think he played in high school against Jeff Francoeur.
   21. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 16, 2012 at 10:26 AM (#4062319)
What does it say about Oakland when the Padres offense is "not very good", but every single starter except SS has a better projected OPS+ than the A's best hitter?


The A's need to get on the phone to San Diego and trade for the improbably named "Jedd Gyorko" to be their DH, that's what it means.
   22. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: February 16, 2012 at 10:40 AM (#4062342)
Jeremy Hemida is only 28? He prospected forever and has been a bust forever or so it seemed.


I know I always confuse him with Josh Willingham, so that's probably what you're doing as well.
   23. Graham & the 15-win "ARod Vortex of suck" Posted: February 16, 2012 at 02:34 PM (#4062623)
I know someone has explained this to me before, but I have forgotten. What does the number after the defensive ranking mean?
   24. jfish26101 Posted: February 16, 2012 at 02:39 PM (#4062631)
The letters are the range factor: Ex > Vg > Av > Fr > Pr

The numbers are the error rating: 100 is average; 50 is half as many errors while 200 is double the amount of errors
   25. VK_Ratliff Posted: February 17, 2012 at 10:10 AM (#4063277)
To elaborate on JFish's answer, here's what the Diamond Mind Baseball Help Manual says about error ratings:

This rating is a percentage indicating how this player's error rate compares to the average fielder at his position in the era in which he played. A rating of 100 means the player is average -- that is, he makes 100% of the errors expected of someone at that position. A player who makes only 50% as many errors as his peers is rated 50. Someone who makes twice as many errors as his peers is rated 200.


The DMB Help Manual contains a chart reflecting historical error rates, by position, in five-year intervals from 1895 to 2000. I'm assuming, without knowing, that Dan uses a chart updated through at least 2010. (I'm also supposing that DMB, when creating recent-season disks, uses numbers more current than the last year, 2000, reflected on the Help Manual chart.)
   26. VK_Ratliff Posted: February 17, 2012 at 10:14 AM (#4063280)
Jeremy Hemida is only 28? He prospected forever and has been a bust forever or so it seemed.

I know I always confuse him with Josh Willingham, so that's probably what you're doing as well.


And Hermida is a former Baseball America Prospects cover boy.
   27. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: February 17, 2012 at 10:26 AM (#4063295)
A change of tier in range factors is worth a bit less than 7 runs, iirc.
   28. jfish26101 Posted: February 17, 2012 at 11:02 AM (#4063333)
http://fansofdmb.yuku.com/topic/205/Value--Defense-including---Position-Players-reposted#.Tz55-VE97D4

EDIT: Breakdown of the effect of range and error rating, the charts start with post #14.
   29. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 17, 2012 at 02:33 PM (#4063585)
Yeah, I wish DMB had smaller ranges.

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