2012 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres
I can understand a team trading Mat Latos for quality prospects. I can understand picking up Carlos Quentin and trading off a surplus 1B/OF prospect for starting pitching depth. What I don't understand is doing the things described in the first two sentences in the same offseason. Part of the reason you acquire a slugger for the short-term and trade for depth is because you have Mat Latos on the team, after all. I had the same puzzlement last year as the Padres traded Adrian Gonzalez (who was scheduled to make peanuts in 2011) and then followed it up by bringing in Orlando Hudson, Jason Bartlett, Aaron Harang, and Brad Hawpe, moves that make sense if you have, well, Adrian Gonzalez in the middle of your lineup.
The bullpen is very solid and deep and will continue to be in 2012, even without Mike Adams. The offense is not very good, but it wasn't quite as bad as last year's run rank of 15th suggests - most of the best options missed time, the bench was pretty awful, and of course, the park makes everything look superficially much worse. Conversely, the starters were much weaker than it looks at first glance - thanks to park and continued decline in NL offense, Stauffer's 3.73 ERA and Clayton Richard's 3.88 were actually very ordinary. It's still hard to get acclimated after spending all my adult years in an era of very high offense.
No doubt, the Yonder Alonso projection will be very unpopular, but he's really never hit like a top 1B prospect in the minors, at least to the degree where it was consistent with his place in the power rankings. Now, those numbers look far worse than they are thanks to the park, but it's hard to see Alonso as a top-flight 1B without hitting for more power - not just HRs, but doubles, too. A first baseman with disappointing power can be an excellent player, but that's usually a result of BA, walks, and defense. ZiPS still likes Alonso long-term, but thinks that there will be an adjustment period and doesn't see Alonso as a likely star, but on the level that people saw James Loney progressing to after 2008/2009.
The Padres are probably the favorite for last place, but they're not really a terrible team in the vein of the Astros, and in a weak division, a little luck should take them above the Dodgers and maybe to .500. They'll need some fortune, though.
Next Up: Pittsburgh Pirates, Big Ass Spreadsheet, v0.8
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Batting Projections
Player B PO Age BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OPS+
Carlos Quentin R RF 29 .254 .344 .458 123 437 62 111 27 1 20 74 41 75 3 1 123
Chase Headley B 3B 28 .270 .351 .392 144 518 64 140 29 2 10 58 62 130 13 3 108
Cameron Maybin R CF 25 .255 .324 .383 147 538 87 137 23 8 10 50 52 140 27 6 98
Yonder Alonso L LF 25 .256 .329 .401 130 446 47 114 26 3 11 56 49 93 7 4 104
Jesus Guzman R 1B 28 .266 .324 .399 138 511 63 136 29 3 11 74 41 102 7 4 102
Will Venable L RF 29 .239 .308 .396 141 457 68 109 18 6 14 58 43 128 21 4 96
Kyle Blanks R LF 25 .233 .315 .407 122 430 62 100 22 4 15 67 45 139 3 1 101
James Darnell R 3B 25 .243 .324 .390 129 490 61 119 26 2 14 66 57 110 3 2 99
Orlando Hudson B 2B 34 .249 .329 .364 123 442 65 110 19 4 8 44 52 86 11 2 95
Chris Denorfia R RF 31 .259 .320 .381 128 370 48 96 18 3 7 30 33 63 11 5 96
Jedd Gyorko R 3B 23 .251 .310 .391 129 514 75 129 28 1 14 71 43 124 7 2 95
Nick Hundley R C 28 .243 .306 .406 97 325 39 79 17 3 10 41 29 90 2 2 98
Jeremy Hermida L RF 28 .236 .317 .384 126 424 49 100 20 2 13 46 46 121 3 1 96
Vincent Belnome L 2B 24 .234 .332 .378 110 415 58 97 20 2 12 59 60 125 1 3 99
Jason Bartlett R SS 32 .258 .324 .345 136 507 68 131 24 4 4 45 47 87 17 8 88
Yasmani Grandal B C 23 .238 .325 .357 124 454 51 108 24 0 10 52 56 143 0 1 91
Mark Kotsay L RF 36 .254 .307 .355 93 256 21 65 12 1 4 28 20 30 2 1 85
Jaff Decker L LF 22 .203 .315 .367 131 507 74 103 23 3 18 80 78 176 9 6 91
John Baker L C 31 .224 .317 .339 56 165 22 37 8 1 3 13 21 44 0 0 85
Logan Forsythe R 2B 25 .224 .326 .322 126 447 64 100 20 3 6 45 62 130 12 4 83
Blake Tekotte L CF 25 .219 .302 .358 146 562 76 123 24 6 14 58 62 173 25 14 84
Everth Cabrera B SS 25 .232 .307 .315 101 375 55 87 15 5 2 28 38 91 29 10 75
Edinson Rincon R 3B 21 .228 .288 .348 128 509 61 116 27 2 10 61 41 123 1 2 77
Andy Parrino B SS 26 .207 .298 .322 128 429 58 89 19 3 8 45 51 144 5 2 74
Jason Hagerty B C 24 .211 .301 .323 126 473 59 100 25 2 8 56 54 159 2 3 75
Jonathan Galvez R 2B 21 .213 .281 .327 148 560 69 119 25 3 11 67 48 189 24 10 70
Rymer Liriano R RF 21 .221 .278 .335 153 597 69 132 27 7 9 59 44 172 41 24 71
Bobby Kielty B RF 35 .208 .281 .336 46 149 13 31 7 0 4 18 15 46 0 1 72
Brad Davis R C 29 .219 .272 .328 106 360 33 79 19 1 6 39 25 99 2 1 67
Jeudy Valdez R SS 23 .222 .265 .339 150 625 81 139 30 5 11 79 34 160 25 15 68
Micah Owings R P 29 .211 .231 .368 39 38 4 8 1 1 1 4 1 15 0 0 65
Pedro Feliz R 3B 37 .234 .246 .327 65 205 20 48 8 1 3 22 4 25 0 1 59
Defensive Projections
Player CTHr 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF
Carlos Quentin PO/146 PO/146
Chase Headley AV/83 AV/91
Cameron Maybin VG/110
Yonder Alonso FR/117 PO/140 PO/90
Jesus Guzman AV/120 PO/125 AV/109 AV/118
Will Venable VG/100 PO/135 VG/100
Kyle Blanks FR/96 FR/87 PO/90
James Darnell AV/118 AV/148 AV/91 FR/115
Orlando Hudson AV/70
Chris Denorfia VG/96 FR/91 VG/101
Jedd Gyorko PO/118 AV/96
Nick Hundley VG
Jeremy Hermida FR/115 AV/51
Vincent Belnome AV/108 PO/110 PO/142
Jason Bartlett AV/96
Yasmani Grandal VG
Mark Kotsay AV/86 FR/141 PO/97 FR/126
Jaff Decker FR/122 PO/137 FR/128
John Baker FR
Logan Forsythe FR/163 VG/118 PO/170
Blake Tekotte AV/114 FR/123 AV/117
Everth Cabrera AV/105 AV/128
Edinson Rincon FR/218
Andy Parrino AV/113 FR/109 AV/112 PO/109 FR/96 100/
Jason Hagerty AV FR/91
Jonathan Galvez FR/195 PO/156
Rymer Liriano AV/171 VG/237
Bobby Kielty FR/106 FR/106
Brad Davis AV
Jeudy Valdez AV/173 AV/167
Micah Owings
Pedro Feliz AV/122 AV/76
Pitching Projections - Starters
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Cory Luebke L 27 3.59 9 8 24 24 143.0 127 57 14 49 130 101
Andrew Cashner R 25 3.62 4 3 31 11 64.7 57 26 4 32 53 100
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 96
Tim Stauffer R 30 3.79 8 8 24 24 142.3 137 60 14 46 100 96
Robert Erlin L 21 3.82 6 6 28 23 132.0 128 56 16 30 110 95
Edinson Volquez R 28 3.98 6 7 22 22 124.3 114 55 11 69 118 91
Joseph Wieland R 22 4.06 8 9 27 26 146.3 157 66 14 34 103 89
Clayton Richard L 28 4.10 8 9 24 24 138.3 138 63 12 55 95 89
Anthony Bass R 24 4.36 6 8 36 21 119.7 125 58 12 44 77 83
Dustin Moseley R 30 4.40 5 6 17 16 94.0 100 46 9 33 54 82
Micah Owings R 29 4.47 5 7 33 11 90.7 89 45 10 43 65 81
Juan Oramas L 22 4.59 6 9 24 21 102.0 103 52 14 41 87 79
Matt Palmer R 33 4.90 5 9 26 16 108.3 118 59 11 51 68 74
Simon Castro R 24 4.98 5 9 24 24 121.0 135 67 15 45 82 73
Jose De Paula L 22 5.10 5 9 24 19 95.3 107 54 10 43 57 71
Casey Kelly R 22 5.40 4 9 25 25 116.7 143 70 11 51 73 67
Jeff Suppan R 37 5.40 5 9 24 20 120.0 145 72 16 46 58 67
John Van BenschoteR 32 5.58 2 4 13 6 40.3 48 25 5 20 24 65
Josh Geer R 29 5.73 3 7 16 14 86.3 108 55 15 21 38 63
Matt Buschmann R 28 5.85 4 10 33 17 112.3 138 73 14 53 66 62
Pitching Statistics - Relievers
Player T Age ERA W L G GS IP H ER HR BB K ERA+
Huston Street R 28 2.93 4 2 61 0 58.3 49 19 6 14 64 124
Joe Thatcher L 30 2.94 1 1 47 0 33.7 27 11 2 14 39 123
Ernesto Frieri R 26 2.97 3 2 64 0 66.7 50 22 5 36 82 122
Luke Gregerson R 28 3.12 4 3 69 0 66.3 57 23 5 23 64 116
Brad Brach R 26 3.29 5 4 69 0 68.3 60 25 6 21 70 110
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Josh Spence L 24 3.39 3 3 76 0 71.7 56 27 7 36 71 107
Bradley Boxberger R 24 3.47 3 3 58 0 59.7 46 23 5 34 74 105
Erik Hamren R 25 3.49 3 3 65 0 77.3 68 30 7 31 71 104
Cory Burns R 24 3.63 3 3 58 0 57.0 53 23 5 22 52 100
Miles Mikolas R 23 3.95 3 3 63 0 73.0 73 32 6 23 54 92
Nick Vincent R 25 4.13 3 4 61 0 72.0 68 33 8 30 63 88
Dale Thayer R 31 4.30 3 4 56 0 67.0 70 32 7 22 48 84
Greg Burke R 29 4.92 2 3 59 0 67.7 72 37 8 33 52 74
Alex Hinshaw L 29 5.06 1 2 49 0 48.0 45 27 4 45 48 72
Craig Italiano R 25 5.20 3 5 56 0 62.3 70 36 6 36 39 70
Eddie Kunz R 26 5.93 2 6 46 4 74.3 86 49 8 54 34 61
Extrapolated Career Statistics
Player BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+
Mark Kotsay .277 .332 .406 1885 6602 807 1827 363 49 130 740 561 767 102 96
Chase Headley .265 .339 .382 1863 6714 773 1781 361 27 122 728 726 1497 150 102
Orlando Hudson .267 .335 .396 1809 6581 898 1760 335 75 121 706 658 1115 120 94
Cameron Maybin .249 .319 .378 1858 6750 1071 1680 297 81 137 606 648 1664 262 94
Jason Bartlett .263 .325 .354 1639 5998 786 1579 280 50 55 530 493 921 211 87
Carlos Quentin .248 .337 .448 1563 5489 759 1363 320 12 250 904 501 883 38 112
Jeremy Hermida .244 .322 .392 1348 4449 518 1087 220 19 133 503 465 1124 36 94
Nick Hundley .243 .302 .397 1215 4088 451 992 211 47 109 488 340 982 26 94
Kyle Blanks .227 .313 .395 1228 4237 601 961 219 31 144 634 465 1292 25 97
Will Venable .242 .309 .392 1096 3519 496 850 130 45 103 428 320 913 146 95
Player W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+
Edinson Volquez 76 77 0 4.29 258 254 1407 1308 670 145 782 1347 90
ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)
Player PO EX VG AV FR PO COMP 1 COMP 2 COMP 3
Carlos Quentin RF 30% 37% 18% 11% 5% Kevin Mench Bubba Trammell Johnny Rizzo
Chase Headley 3B 20% 31% 25% 17% 7% Jeff Cirillo Brook Jacoby Gil McDougald
Cameron Maybin CF 22% 24% 29% 18% 7% Roberto Kelly Marquis Grissom Marlon Byrd
Yonder Alonso LF 5% 19% 20% 25% 32% Paul McAnulty Rusty Greer Wally Joyner
Jesus Guzman 1B 2% 11% 18% 37% 32% Pat Tabler Terry Whitfield George Scott
Will Venable RF 7% 19% 20% 24% 30% Michael Tucker Brant Brown Andy Tomberlin
Kyle Blanks LF 3% 15% 19% 26% 37% Chin-Feng Chen Jeff Conine Ben Johnson
James Darnell 3B 6% 18% 25% 27% 25% Fritzie Connally Tom Evans Craig Worthington
Orlando Hudson 2B 19% 15% 19% 24% 23% Mickey Morandini Mark McLemore Tony Phillips
Chris Denorfia RF 2% 8% 12% 23% 55% Dave Martinez Barry Bonnell Hal Lee
Jedd Gyorko 3B 6% 15% 22% 27% 31% Fernando Tatis Brook Jacoby Joe Crede
Nick Hundley C 15% 29% 23% 21% 12% Chad Moeller Angel Pena Pat Borders
Jeremy Hermida RF 2% 9% 13% 25% 51% Brian Lesher Brad Hawpe Chris Wakeland
Vincent Belnome 2B 16% 15% 19% 25% 25% Tom Evans Bret Boone Jeff Manto
Jason Bartlett SS 10% 18% 31% 26% 15% Adam Kennedy Bobby Adams Billy Urbanski
Yasmani Grandal C 7% 21% 25% 29% 17%Jarrod Saltalamacch Al PardoMaximiliano Ramirez
Mark Kotsay RF 1% 3% 5% 13% 79% Larry Biittner Mike Kingery Joe Orsulak
Jaff Decker LF 4% 8% 9% 15% 64% Dernell Stenson Travis Ishikawa Ty Griffin
John Baker C 2% 12% 19% 31% 35% Mike Rose Brad Gulden Dwight Lowry
Logan Forsythe 2B 4% 6% 12% 26% 52% Joe Lawrence David Newhan Paul Runge
Blake Tekotte CF 3% 6% 15% 25% 50% Louie Meadows Brian Simmons Dan Ortmeier
Everth Cabrera SS 2% 9% 26% 32% 30% Bob Meacham Harry Chappas Gary Weiss
Edinson Rincon 3B 1% 3% 6% 12% 78% Chris Bass John Hattig Mike Bell
Andy Parrino SS 2% 4% 12% 26% 56% Ross Jones Steve Fanning Craig Kuzmic
Jason Hagerty C 1% 4% 9% 27% 59% Mickey TettletonMaximiliano Ramirez John Gibbons
Jonathan Galvez 2B 3% 2% 4% 11% 80% Bert Pena Jay Canizaro Sean Rodriguez
Rymer Liriano RF 0% 1% 2% 6% 92% Randy Kutcher David Green Rusty Tillman
Bobby Kielty RF 0% 1% 2% 4% 93% Dann Howitt Alan Cockrell Tony Clark
Brad Davis C 1% 2% 4% 17% 76% Brandon Marsters Bill Hayes Craig Tatum
Jeudy Valdez SS 3% 3% 8% 16% 71% Edwin Diaz Luis Rivera Caonabo Cosme
Player PO TOP MID BOT Comp1 Comp2 Comp3
Huston Street RP 48% 42% 10% Mike Schooler Rod Beck Rusty Meacham
Joe Thatcher RP 50% 38% 12% Jason Christiansen George Sherrill Rod Scurry
Ernesto Frieri RP 46% 44% 10% Mark Littell Bryan Harvey Buddy Hernandez
Luke Gregerson RP 38% 49% 13% Brad Clontz Tim Scott Mel Rojas
Brad Brach RP 34% 50% 17% Luis DeLeon Heath Bell Darren Holmes
Josh Spence RP 26% 48% 27% John Rocker Darren Oliver Kent Mercker
Bradley Boxberger RP 28% 46% 25% Jose Valverde Ryan Bukvich Brian Bruney
Erik Hamren RP 22% 48% 30% Bert Roberge Jeff Innis Scott Strickland
Cory Luebke SP 29% 56% 15% Ted Lilly Steve Avery Jeff Francis
Andrew Cashner SP 18% 44% 38% Murry Dickson Richie Lewis Mel Rojas
Cory Burns RP 17% 46% 37% Chad Orvella Chris Resop Erik Bennett
Tim Stauffer SP 19% 56% 25% Ismael Valdez Paul Byrd Kris Benson
Robert Erlin SP 20% 53% 27% Atlee Hammaker Rheal Cormier Kirk Rueter
Miles Mikolas RP 8% 46% 46% Franquelis Osoria Jose Acevedo Charles Dale
Edinson Volquez SP 13% 50% 37% Bobby Witt Darryl Kile Juan Eichelberger
Joseph Wieland SP 10% 54% 36% Chris Holt Andy Sonnanstine Joe Blanton
Clayton Richard SP 8% 45% 48% Scott Sauerbeck Dave Otto Chris Hammond
Nick Vincent RP 5% 31% 65% Chris Britton Mike Adams Pat Neshek
Dale Thayer RP 4% 26% 70% Jay Tessmer Brian Schmack Jack Cressend
Anthony Bass SP 5% 37% 58% Kameron Loe Ramon Morel Shawn Sedlacek
Dustin Moseley SP 7% 36% 58% Frank Campos Heath Totten Robert Ellis
Micah Owings RP 1% 19% 80% Alan Benes Omar Olivares Anastacio Martinez
Juan Oramas SP 3% 23% 73% Scott Lewis Michael Tejera Dan Meyer
Matt Palmer SP 1% 14% 85% Russ Ortiz Spec Shea Alan Benes
Greg Burke RP 0% 7% 93% Jamie Brewington Mark Small Mike Villano
Simon Castro SP 0% 10% 90% Tony Pena Brandon Leese Bill Fulton
Alex Hinshaw RP 1% 9% 91% Bill White Kevin Tolar Tim Fortugno
Jose De Paula SP 0% 7% 92% Ryan Spille Rich Rundles Wes Whisler
Craig Italiano RP 0% 4% 95% Mike Trombley Stan Bahnsen Kevin Joseph
Casey Kelly SP 0% 3% 97% Mike Mason Matt Achilles Joe Housey
Jeff Suppan SP 1% 6% 94% Dennis Springer Aaron Sele Kevin Jarvis
John Van BenschoteSP 0% 5% 95% Chris Nichting Elmer Riddle Mike Saipe
Josh Geer SP 0% 3% 97% Mark Johnson Paul Mitchell Glenn Abbott
Matt Buschmann SP 0% 1% 99% Todd Van Poppel Elliot Brown Jason Secoda
Eddie Kunz RP 0% 0% 100% Julien Tucker Jeremy Salyers Scott Suehr
Player .300 BA .375 OBP .500 SLG 45+ 2B 10+ 3B 30+ HR 140 OPS+ 30+ SB
Carlos Quentin 4% 13% 14% 1% 0% 5% 14% 0%
Chase Headley 11% 18% 1% 2% 0% 0% 3% 5%
Cameron Maybin 3% 4% 0% 0% 32% 0% 1% 33%
Yonder Alonso 3% 5% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1%
Jesus Guzman 8% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1%
Will Venable 0% 0% 1% 0% 15% 1% 0% 12%
Kyle Blanks 0% 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0%
James Darnell 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0%
Orlando Hudson 3% 7% 1% 0% 3% 0% 2% 0%
Chris Denorfia 6% 3% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Jedd Gyorko 2% 1% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1%
Nick Hundley 2% 2% 4% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0%
Jeremy Hermida 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Vincent Belnome 0% 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Jason Bartlett 5% 4% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 6%
Yasmani Grandal 1% 4% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0%
Mark Kotsay 6% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Jaff Decker 0% 3% 3% 0% 3% 6% 2% 1%
John Baker 2% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Logan Forsythe 0% 3% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Blake Tekotte 0% 0% 0% 0% 12% 1% 0% 28%
Everth Cabrera 0% 1% 0% 0% 7% 0% 0% 38%
Edinson Rincon 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Andy Parrino 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Jason Hagerty 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Jonathan Galvez 0% 0% 1% 0% 3% 2% 1% 22%
Rymer Liriano 0% 0% 0% 2% 25% 1% 0% 88%
Bobby Kielty 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Brad Davis 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jeudy Valdez 0% 0% 2% 3% 11% 2% 0% 29%
Pedro Feliz 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Player ERA+>130 ERA+>100 K/9 >8 BB/9 <2 HR/9 <1
Huston Street 48% 85% 94% 49% 62%
Joe Thatcher 50% 81% 93% 4% 91%
Ernesto Frieri 38% 86% 99% 0% 87%
Luke Gregerson 30% 77% 73% 6% 88%
Brad Brach 27% 72% 86% 13% 83%
Josh Spence 20% 67% 77% 0% 74%
Bradley Boxberger 22% 68% 98% 0% 81%
Erik Hamren 16% 63% 57% 1% 84%
Cory Luebke 6% 58% 56% 2% 78%
Andrew Cashner 18% 55% 32% 1% 90%
Cory Burns 12% 55% 54% 3% 79%
Tim Stauffer 3% 39% 3% 4% 77%
Robert Erlin 4% 41% 27% 50% 46%
Miles Mikolas 5% 39% 6% 8% 83%
Edinson Volquez 2% 30% 66% 0% 84%
Joseph Wieland 1% 28% 3% 46% 77%
Clayton Richard 1% 23% 2% 0% 81%
Nick Vincent 3% 29% 43% 0% 54%
Dale Thayer 3% 24% 4% 8% 65%
Anthony Bass 1% 14% 0% 2% 63%
Dustin Moseley 1% 18% 0% 4% 65%
Micah Owings 1% 13% 4% 0% 60%
Juan Oramas 0% 10% 33% 0% 28%
Matt Palmer 0% 4% 3% 1% 71%
Greg Burke 0% 5% 11% 0% 57%
Simon Castro 0% 2% 1% 1% 44%
Alex Hinshaw 0% 6% 76% 0% 77%
Jose De Paula 0% 1% 0% 0% 69%
Craig Italiano 0% 3% 0% 0% 76%
Casey Kelly 0% 0% 0% 0% 72%
Jeff Suppan 0% 2% 1% 3% 36%
John Van Benschote 0% 3% 4% 1% 45%
Josh Geer 0% 1% 0% 41% 14%
Matt Buschmann 0% 0% 0% 0% 48%
Eddie Kunz 0% 0% 0% 0% 62%
All figures in % based on projection playing time
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
A's
Rangers
Marlins
Diamondbacks
Indians
Nationals
Blue Jays
Rays
Royals
Reds
Brewers
Orioles
Rockies
Braves
Astros
Cardinals
Dodgers
Twins
Giants
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees
Dan Szymborski
Posted: February 15, 2012 at 02:45 PM |
29 comment(s)
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1. Moe Greene Posted: February 15, 2012 at 03:15 PM (#4061661)THANK YOU.
I've been saying this for months - I'm glad to finally find someone else who agrees.
Actually it looks quite reasonable to me.
That's about what I thought he would hit. Before the trade to Petco.
Technically, I would assume Hernandez would be one of the ChiSox projections, except those were done before Q went to the Padres for Hernandez and Castro.
Player request: Drew Cumberland (though that's admittedly more out of curiosity than big league readiness). .365 for Lake Elsinore at age 21 in 2010, missed all of last season. Not a lot of power, not a lot of walks contact guy.
As for Belnome, I like his range a bit more than that, but he is kind of lumpen.
Yep. Just wanted to make sure that he didn't get forgotten.
I think he played in high school against Jeff Francoeur.
The A's need to get on the phone to San Diego and trade for the improbably named "Jedd Gyorko" to be their DH, that's what it means.
I know I always confuse him with Josh Willingham, so that's probably what you're doing as well.
The numbers are the error rating: 100 is average; 50 is half as many errors while 200 is double the amount of errors
The DMB Help Manual contains a chart reflecting historical error rates, by position, in five-year intervals from 1895 to 2000. I'm assuming, without knowing, that Dan uses a chart updated through at least 2010. (I'm also supposing that DMB, when creating recent-season disks, uses numbers more current than the last year, 2000, reflected on the Help Manual chart.)
And Hermida is a former Baseball America Prospects cover boy.
EDIT: Breakdown of the effect of range and error rating, the charts start with post #14.
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