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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
2012 ZiPS Projections Spreadsheets, v. 1This is the first general release of final ZiPS projections 2012. All players, to the best of my knowledge, are projected for their most recent employer's organization. In the final spreadsheet, there will be a "current team" field and unemployed players will have a blank there, with the "team" field becoming "projected team" so you know to what organization the player was originally projected.
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. A projection indicating how any given player would play in the majors rather than simply a blank line for many of the prospects and journeymen listed is less information and projecting how good someone is, rather than how much someone will play as a result of external decisions, is more consistent with application of the strengths of a computer. ZiPS isn't bad at projecting total *professional* playing time as there's a relationship between past playing time and future playing time, but there's a lot of specific decision-making and external events that affect this number.
ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.
Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the future injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.
If you find bugs, errors, or have additional projection requests, this is the best place to do it. You can also e-mail me at email@example.com, but this is the most organized place for me to see these things.
The release of the 2012 ZiPS Projection Disk for Diamond Mind Baseball is confirmed, though I do not yet know what their position is at this time on v.9 compatibility.
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