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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

2012 ZiPS Projections - Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays plan to win in 2012 the same way they usually do: pitching, defense, and catching just enough lightning in a bottle on offense around their core. The team is, at least by ZiPS, just behind the Red Sox for 3rd place, but the winter is over and given how relatively quiet the team has been with minor-league signings (outside of Luke Scott, they've made very few), they've still got some empty bottles to fill.

Tampa won't have that starting rotation, forever. A team competing on a budget doesn't have the luxury of stashing too many extra arms away and a trade of one of their starters could help fill holes in the lineup. While the pitching is really good, the park and excellent defenses cause them to be a bit overrated, so when the opportunity comes to take advantage of it, the team won't say no.

Next Up: Toronto Blue Jays

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Evan Longoria     R    3B  26   .274 .367 .514 151 558  92 153  35   3  31 106  79 127   9   2  141
Ben Zobrist       B    2B  31   .261 .355 .444 143 514  83 134  32   4  18  80  76 112  17   5  119
Matthew Joyce     L    RF  27   .254 .342 .453 140 461  68 117  29   3  19  71  61 119  10   4  118
Desmond Jennings  R    CF  25   .259 .339 .392 156 590 100 153  28   7  12  54  62 119  38   7  102
Luke Scott        L    LF  34   .245 .325 .447  98 331  45  81  17   1  16  47  39  82   1   1  111
B.J. Upton        R    CF  27   .240 .329 .411 156 570  87 137  32   4  19  73  74 169  40  14  103
Casey Kotchman    L    1B  29   .272 .339 .395 138 463  45 126  23   2  10  56  41  56   2   1  103
Johnny Damon      L    LF  38   .256 .328 .406 134 515  72 132  29   6  12  59  51  88  14   4  102
Brandon Guyer     R    RF  26   .259 .310 .400 136 495  75 128  30   5  10  54  29 102  19   6   95
Manny Ramirez     R    DH  39   .241 .342 .363  91 270  33  65  12   0   7  37  37  78   1   1  101
Sean Rodriguez    R    SS  27   .230 .315 .391 133 409  58  94  21   3  13  49  38 120  11   5   94
Dan Johnson       L    1B  32   .230 .324 .383 126 439  55 101  19   0  16  59  60  99   0   1   95
Russ Canzler      R    RF  26   .237 .308 .390 138 469  59 111  27   3  13  63  47 143   4   4   92
Sam Fuld          L    LF  30   .245 .322 .348 120 371  55  91  17   6   3  30  41  50  17   8   86
Stephen Vogt      L    C   27   .255 .291 .381 110 423  46 108  23   3   8  54  22  74   2   1   84
Juan Miranda      L    1B  29   .223 .305 .369 111 355  39  79  15   2  11  43  39 104   1   1   86
Justin Ruggiano   R    LF  30   .232 .286 .361 108 388  47  90  18   1  10  47  27 118  15   4   78
Matt Mangini      L    1B  26   .249 .293 .351 114 430  53 107  16   2   8  64  25 112   4   1   78
Robinson Chirinos R    C   28   .237 .309 .358  97 338  34  80  16   2   7  38  30  78   1   3   84
Elliot Johnson    B    SS  28   .237 .287 .361  90 299  35  71  13   3   6  30  20  81  13   6   78
Jose Lobaton      B    C   27   .228 .305 .345  84 281  25  64  13   1   6  28  31  82   0   0   80
Jose Molina       R    C   37   .237 .296 .353  51 156  13  37   7   1   3  11  11  40   1   1   79
Hak-Ju Lee        L    SS  21   .248 .308 .326 151 626  91 155  21   8   4  36  50 143  30  17   76
Tim Beckham       R    SS  22   .239 .294 .336 156 614  86 147  27   4   8  63  46 169  19  11   74
Daniel Mayora     R    3B  26   .239 .292 .336 128 485  56 116  23   3   6  44  31 110   8   5   73
Leslie Anderson   L    1B  30   .250 .284 .340 121 476  42 119  19   0   8  48  18  70   2   3   72
Reid Brignac      L    SS  26   .239 .281 .338 126 397  42  95  17   2   6  41  22  90   5   4   71
Kyeong Kang       L    RF  24   .218 .297 .332 112 385  43  84  17   3   7  33  38 126   5   5   74
John Shelby       R    CF  26   .215 .251 .346 133 494  62 106  21   4  12  47  22 150  13   6   63
Nevin Ashley      R    C   27   .209 .279 .294 115 412  37  86  13   2   6  38  30 127   3   4   59
J.J. Furmaniak    R    2B  32   .211 .259 .285 114 389  39  82  18   1   3  29  23  87   7   3   51

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Evan Longoria                                 EX/74
Ben Zobrist                  AV/106   VG/74  AV/119  FR/112  VG/112   AV/94  VG/112
Matthew Joyce                                                 AV/84           AV/84
Desmond Jennings                                              VG/96   VG/68   VG/88
Luke Scott                   AV/115                           FR/83
B.J. Upton                                                            AV/85
Casey Kotchman                AV/39
Johnny Damon                                                 AV/116  PO/114
Brandon Guyer                                                 VG/95   FR/85  AV/102
Manny Ramirez                                                PO/147
Sean Rodriguez               VG/109   VG/94   AV/89  AV/121  AV/109  FR/105  AV/113
Dan Johnson                   AV/95           FR/89           FR/91
Russ Canzler                 AV/140          FR/140           AV/83          FR/127
Sam Fuld                                                     EX/104   AV/79  VG/111
Stephen Vogt             FR  FR/112
Juan Miranda                 AV/113
Justin Ruggiano                                              VG/110   FR/87   AV/97
Matt Mangini                 AV/150          AV/129
Robinson Chirinos        AV  AV/103
Elliot Johnson                       VG/103  AV/111  FR/100  VG/104          AV/107
Jose Lobaton             AV
Jose Molina              VG
Hak-Ju Lee                                           VG/148
Tim Beckham                                          AV/153
Daniel Mayora                        AV/122  AV/120  AV/113
Leslie Anderson              AV/117                           FR/99           FR/99
Reid Brignac                         AV/103           AV/90
Kyeong Kang                                                  AV/105          AV/144
John Shelby                                                  VG/135  AV/126  VG/135
Nevin Ashley             VG
J.J. Furmaniak                        AV/79   VG/89  AV/108  AV/109          AV/109                  

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age    ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
David Price       L     26    3.47    15    9   32   32  200.0  175   77   20   68  184  117
Jeremy Hellickson R     25    3.60    11    8   27   26  155.0  139   62   16   58  115  112
Matt Moore        L     23    3.72    10    7   29   27  145.0  126   60   14   69  150  109
James Shields     R     30    3.76    15   11   31   31  215.3  207   90   26   55  184  108
Alex Cobb         R     24    3.98     7    5   23   23  122.0  125   54   10   42   91  102
Jeff Niemann      R     29    4.12    10    9   27   27  157.3  154   72   19   49  116   98
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Wade Davis        R     26    4.41    10   10   29   29  171.3  173   84   22   63  113   92
Alexander Torres  L     24    4.78     8    9   28   26  137.3  142   73   12   87  108   85
Nick Barnese      R     23    5.02     6    8   23   23  113.0  125   63   11   54   64   81
Christopher ArcherR     23    5.19     7    9   26   26  128.3  136   74   14   85   89   78
Andy Sonnanstine  R     29    5.23     5    7   30   13   98.0  115   57   15   30   50   77
Matt Torra        R     28    5.40     6    9   25   25  150.0  188   90   23   35   63   75
Wilking Rodriguez R     22    5.84     3    6   17   15   69.3   83   45   11   31   39   69
Albert Suarez     R     22    5.94     2    3   11    9   33.3   38   22    6   17   17   68
Alexander Colome  R     23    6.00     6   11   26   26  123.0  132   82   20   85   77   67

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age    ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Kyle Farnsworth   R     36    3.26     3    2   52    0   49.7   43   18    5   14   47  124
Joel Peralta      R     36    3.39     3    2   58    0   58.3   51   22    6   18   51  119
Brandon Gomes     R     27    3.62     3    2   59    0   64.7   58   26    6   28   61  112
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Josh Lueke        R     27    3.79     4    3   43    0   54.7   52   23    4   19   44  107
Burke Badenhop    R     29    3.88     3    3   56    0   72.0   73   31    5   26   49  104
J.P. Howell       L     29    3.99     4    4   58    0   47.3   42   21    5   23   47  101
Jake McGee        L     25    4.03     6    5   63    0   60.3   57   27    7   24   54  101
Juan Cruz         R     33    4.19     2    2   37    0   34.3   31   16    4   19   31   97
Ricky Orta        R     27    4.26     1    1   11    1   19.0   19    9    2    8   14   95
Fernando Rodney   R     35    4.32     4    3   53    0   50.0   47   24    4   28   40   94
Jay Buente        R     28    4.54     3    3   40    5   73.3   75   37    7   37   55   89
Joe Bateman       R     32    4.55     3    4   45    0   63.3   66   32    6   30   40   89
Matt Bush         R     26    4.63     3    3   26    0   35.0   34   18    4   17   33   87
Dane De La Rosa   R     29    4.67     5    6   54    0   71.3   74   37    8   32   55   87
Cesar Ramos       L     28    4.70     2    2   65    0   53.7   54   28    6   29   35   86
Dirk Hayhurst     R     31    4.80     4    4   25    8   65.7   73   35    8   23   38   84
Jhonny Nunez      R     26    5.21     4    5   40    5   67.3   73   39   10   32   48   78
Lance Cormier     R     31    5.31     3    4   42    2   62.7   73   37    8   26   29   76
Aaron Laffey      L     27    5.12     3    3   52    0   58.0   66   33    7   26   31   85
Jerry Gil         R     29    6.00     4    7   51    0   57.0   64   38    8   42   40   73

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Johnny Damon        .282  .349  .430  2826 11079  1843  3123   606   127   261  1288  1120  1458   440   103
Evan Longoria       .266  .351  .476  2346  8759  1311  2327   532    41   410  1510  1108  1793   138   126
B.J. Upton          .244  .327  .400  2286  8409  1228  2048   468    51   248  1010  1029  2231   476    99
Ben Zobrist         .253  .337  .424  1708  6171   897  1562   354    56   196   897   797  1165   166   108
Casey Kotchman      .265  .332  .385  1510  5017   496  1331   260    14   104   609   443   551    18    95
Matthew Joyce       .247  .333  .435  1602  5197   718  1286   331    32   194   756   659  1193    89   111
Reid Brignac        .235  .278  .335   961  2926   305   687   125    12    48   301   166   660    29    69

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
David Price           192  132    0    3.63  438  431     2686 2371 1084  294  955 2497    113
James Shields         174  158    0    4.10  434  430     2888 2919 1317  388  726 2406     99
Jeff Niemann          110   97    0    4.30  297  289     1693 1679  808  222  548 1243     95

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Evan Longoria     3B    78%  16%   4%   1%   0%          Ron Santo        Scott Rolen      Harlond Clift
Ben Zobrist       2B    72%  15%   8%   4%   1%       Lou Whitaker         Ray Durham     Dick McAuliffe
Matthew Joyce     RF    23%  32%  20%  16%  10%    Michael Cuddyer        Leon Durham    Bobby Higginson
Desmond Jennings  CF    38%  26%  23%  10%   3%        Chad Curtis    Bernie Williams        Marlon Byrd
Luke Scott        LF    11%  24%  22%  22%  21%      Paul Sorrento       Johnny Grubb    Henry Rodriguez
B.J. Upton        CF    32%  24%  24%  14%   6%       Mike Cameron    Adolfo Phillips         Gary Redus
Casey Kotchman    1B     2%  10%  17%  38%  33%         Sean Casey       Bruce Bochte  Broderick Perkins
Johnny Damon      LF     7%  19%  19%  23%  32%        Bill Bruton        Wally Moses        Bud Stewart
Brandon Guyer     RF     3%  12%  17%  28%  40%   Juan Encarnacion        Alexis Rios      Ivan Calderon
Manny Ramirez     DH     3%  12%  16%  32%  38%          Hal McRae   Andres Galarraga      Cliff Johnson
Sean Rodriguez    SS    19%  27%  30%  16%   8%       Joe Redfield    Chris Clapinski       Chase Lambin
Dan Johnson       1B     1%   5%  10%  32%  52%       Kevin Barker      Graham Koonce       Ozzie Virgil
Russ Canzler      RF     1%   5%   9%  20%  66%         Jeff Baker      Chase Headley     Jeremy Slayden
Sam Fuld          LF     1%   3%   6%  15%  75%       Stubby Clapp     Terry Bradshaw      Rich Thompson
Stephen Vogt      C      3%  13%  22%  34%  27%    A.J. Pierzynski      Damian Miller         Mark Salas
Juan Miranda      1B     0%   2%   4%  18%  76%      Ray Giannelli          Ivan Cruz        Jeff Bailey
Justin Ruggiano   LF     1%   2%   4%  12%  82%     Terrell Lowery        Chris Sheff         Emil Brown
Matt Mangini      1B     0%   1%   2%   9%  88%          Rich Lane      Lonnie Maclin     Mike Maksudian
Robinson Chirinos C      2%  10%  19%  34%  35%       Chad Moeller      Blake Barthol           Del Rice
Elliot Johnson    SS     5%   7%  18%  26%  44%        Ricky Adams     Chris Woodward         Nick Green
Jose Lobaton      C      2%   9%  16%  33%  39%        Dusty Brown           Del Rice     Gilberto Reyes
Jose Molina       C      4%  10%  14%  27%  46%          Phil Masi         Mike Heath        Joe Girardi
Hak-Ju Lee        SS     1%   5%  15%  26%  52%    Alfredo Griffin      Royce Clayton          Juan Bell
Tim Beckham       SS     3%   4%  12%  24%  57%      Josh Barfield    Tony Perezchica     George Hinshaw
Daniel Mayora     3B     0%   1%   2%   7%  90%     Nelson Johnson         Garth Iorg       Jeff Moronko
Leslie Anderson   1B     0%   0%   0%   2%  97%     Mike Robertson   Francisco Santos         Jim O'Dell
Reid Brignac      SS     1%   3%   8%  21%  68%        Mendy LopezChristopher Johnson        Tomas Perez
Kyeong Kang       RF     0%   1%   2%   4%  93%         Mike Neill       Rick Sofield       Craig Cooper
John Shelby       CF     0%   0%   1%   5%  94%         Jason Ross       Barry Wesson     Michael Mooney
Nevin Ashley      C      0%   1%   2%   5%  93%  Francisco Morales        Ryan Luther     Scott Sandusky
J.J. Furmaniak    2B     0%   0%   0%   1%  99%     Chris Petersen        Frank Duffy  Trace Coquillette

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Kyle Farnsworth   RP     47%   43%    9%       Todd Worrell          Lee Smith         Jay Howell
Joel Peralta      RP     44%   43%   14%    Jeff Montgomery         Steve Reed       Jeff Reardon
David Price       SP     66%   29%    5%         Randy Wolf      Tom Underwood     Wilson Alvarez
Jeremy Hellickson SP     58%   37%    5%        Jason Hirsh      Freddy Garcia         Aaron Sele
Brandon Gomes     RP     32%   50%   19%      Jorge Vasquez     Bobby Castillo           Ken Ryan
Matt Moore        SP     50%   43%    7%      Dave Righetti       Scott Kazmir      Tony Saunders
James Shields     SP     48%   47%    5%         Jon Lieber     Javier Vazquez     Dennis Leonard
Josh Lueke        RP     26%   48%   26%      Mark Huismann      Derek Wallace   Randy St. Claire
Burke Badenhop    RP     21%   53%   26%      Gary Majewski          Mark Ross       Jerry Dipoto
Alex Cobb         SP     39%   50%   10%         Roy Oswalt      Marty Bystrom    George Stablein
J.P. Howell       RP     14%   47%   39%    Armando Almanza       Yorkis Perez      Jack Taschner
Jake McGee        RP     16%   50%   35%       Yorkis Perez      Felix Heredia          Jim Poole
Jeff Niemann      SP     23%   59%   18%    Nelson Figueroa      James Baldwin      Ismael Valdez
Juan Cruz         RP     16%   37%   47%         Roy Thomas       Toby Borland       Rich DeLucia
Ricky Orta        RP     17%   37%   46%       Gordon Jones    Derrick Turnbow      Jose Calderon
Fernando Rodney   RP     16%   36%   48%         Ryne Duren       Rich DeLucia    Ricky Bottalico
Wade Davis        SP     13%   53%   34%         Paul Voigt    William Brennan         Doug Jones
Jay Buente        RP      3%   31%   66%          Roy Smith     Ryan Henderson        Marcus Gwyn
Joe Bateman       RP      6%   39%   56%       Marc Wilkins     Dave Wainhouse        Dale Murray
Matt Bush         RP     11%   32%   57%       Brian Bruney        Colter Bean   Santiago Casilla
Dane De La Rosa   RP      3%   29%   69%      Jim Dougherty     Dwight Bernard       Dave Stevens
Cesar Ramos       RP      4%   29%   67%        Kevin Tolar          Tom Doyle      Jason Jimenez
Alexander Torres  SP      4%   41%   55%      Luis Martinez      Trevor Wilson      Mark Langston
Dirk Hayhurst     RP      3%   27%   70%       Danny Graves      Sam Arrington           Tim Pugh
Nick Barnese      SP      2%   27%   70%      Jeff Fulchino      Justin Sturge        Dave Hooten
Christopher ArcherSP      1%   17%   82%         Kevin Ritz     Larry Mitchell       Sean Bergman
Jhonny Nunez      RP      1%   15%   84%       Dave Johnson       Jeff McCurry        Travis Wade
Andy Sonnanstine  SP      1%   10%   89%      Justin Miller        Kris Wilson      Tim McClaskey
Lance Cormier     RP      1%   10%   89%      Mike Sullivan        Bob Scanlan     Brandon Puffer
Matt Torra        SP      1%   10%   89%       Heath Totten        Josh Towers     Dave Borkowski
Wilking Rodriguez SP      0%    7%   93%       Sonny Garcia       Warren Wiley     Patrick Coogan
Albert Suarez     SP      3%   15%   83%          Steve Gay      Steve Schrenk       Billy Traber
Alexander Colome  SP      0%    2%   98%      Matt Peterson        Mike Buddie     Luther Hackman
Aaron Laffey      RP      2%   25%   73%           Sal Urso    Anthony Ferrari          Mike Bell
Jerry Gil         RP      0%    8%   92%      Marty McLeary       Maximo Nunez       Jake Robbins

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Evan Longoria           16%      40%      59%      10%       2%      54%      50%       1%
Ben Zobrist              6%      23%      12%       4%       5%       5%      14%       9%
Matthew Joyce            3%      12%      13%       2%       1%       5%      10%       3%
Desmond Jennings         4%       8%       0%       2%      25%       0%       1%      77%
Luke Scott               3%       5%      10%       0%       0%       1%       5%       0%
B.J. Upton               0%       4%       2%       5%       4%       6%       2%      80%
Casey Kotchman          12%       8%       1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Johnny Damon             5%       4%       1%       2%      12%       0%       1%       4%
Brandon Guyer            4%       1%       1%       2%       6%       0%       0%       8%
Manny Ramirez            3%      16%       1%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%
Sean Rodriguez           0%       2%       2%       0%       1%       1%       1%       1%
Dan Johnson              0%       3%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Russ Canzler             0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Sam Fuld                 2%       2%       0%       0%      11%       0%       0%       4%
Stephen Vogt             4%       0%       1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Juan Miranda             0%       1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Justin Ruggiano          0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       2%
Matt Mangini             1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Robinson Chirinos        1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Elliot Johnson           1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       2%
Jose Lobaton             1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jose Molina              5%       3%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Hak-Ju Lee               1%       1%       0%       0%      32%       0%       0%      45%
Tim Beckham              0%       0%       0%       1%       7%       1%       0%       9%
Daniel Mayora            0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Leslie Anderson          1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Reid Brignac             1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Kyeong Kang              0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
John Shelby              0%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       1%
Nevin Ashley             0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
J.J. Furmaniak           0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Kyle Farnsworth           47%        86%        67%        22%        82%
Joel Peralta              35%        81%        39%        15%        56%
David Price               28%        87%        59%         3%        71%
Jeremy Hellickson         19%        82%         6%         0%        67%
Brandon Gomes             25%        76%        63%         0%        78%
Matt Moore                16%        73%        91%         0%        72%
James Shields             11%        74%        35%        26%        42%
Josh Lueke                26%        67%        19%         5%        85%
Burke Badenhop            16%        61%         2%         3%        93%
Alex Cobb                  9%        65%         6%         2%        89%
J.P. Howell               14%        52%        74%         0%        53%
Jake McGee                11%        58%        44%         1%        64%
Jeff Niemann               3%        50%         4%         4%        38%
Juan Cruz                 10%        43%        50%         0%        65%
Ricky Orta                17%        41%        18%        11%        58%
Fernando Rodney           12%        44%        19%         0%        84%
Wade Davis                 1%        31%         1%         0%        38%
Jay Buente                 2%        28%         8%         0%        67%
Joe Bateman                6%        31%         2%         1%        75%
Matt Bush                 11%        34%        59%         1%        54%
Dane De La Rosa            2%        25%        11%         0%        60%
Cesar Ramos                3%        26%         1%         0%        64%
Alexander Torres           0%        15%        13%         0%        85%
Dirk Hayhurst              2%        19%         2%         8%        44%
Nick Barnese               0%        10%         0%         0%        72%
Christopher Archer         0%         4%         2%         0%        57%
Jhonny Nunez               0%         9%         3%         0%        40%
Andy Sonnanstine           1%         7%         0%         9%        25%
Lance Cormier              1%         9%         0%         1%        40%
Matt Torra                 1%         3%         0%        46%        19%
Wilking Rodriguez          0%         2%         0%         0%        23%
Albert Suarez              1%         8%         1%         1%        30%
Alexander Colome           0%         0%         1%         0%        12%
Aaron Laffey               2%        22%         0%         0%        46%
Jerry Gil                  0%         4%         4%         0%        37%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
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Braves
Astros
Cardinals
Dodgers
Twins
Giants
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Angels
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Dan Szymborski Posted: January 18, 2012 at 04:01 PM | 29 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. trtaylor6886 Posted: January 18, 2012 at 05:13 PM (#4039650)
If they can get a catcher and a first basemen they would have a pretty solid line up to go along with the great pitching.
   2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 18, 2012 at 05:19 PM (#4039656)
That's a lot of good pitching.

Not that it matters much, but Sonanstine is a Cub now. How did Lueke end up with the Rays? Did he take the Elijah Dukes Memorial Roster Spot?
   3. A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo Posted: January 18, 2012 at 05:28 PM (#4039665)
IIRC, Lueke was acquired for John Jaso.
   4. Guapo Posted: January 18, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4039673)
Those Matt Moore comps (particularly #2 and #3) are ominous.
   5. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: January 18, 2012 at 06:03 PM (#4039694)
So, should I hold onto Longoria in my keeper league? It's either him or Tulo.
   6. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 18, 2012 at 06:09 PM (#4039700)
Aw. I was hoping for a career projection on Longoria at least. Not that this isn't massively awesome of course.
   7. The Hal Lanier Hitting Academy Posted: January 18, 2012 at 06:10 PM (#4039701)
Johnny Damon - 3000 hits & 600 doubles - HOF?
   8. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 18, 2012 at 06:11 PM (#4039703)
Those Matt Moore comps (particularly #2 and #3) are ominous.


I get that, of course. Moore certainly could get hurt or lose the strike zone, or both, with probability significantly greater than zero in either case. I don't see either as especially likely in his case, though.

Moore took a huge step forward last year, as difficult as that may be to believe. I was concerned a year ago that the command of the stuff wasn't coming along as well as it should and that he was very hittable when he wasn't striking guys out - but those concerns went by the board last year, when despite moving up through AA and AAA to the majors his walk rate and hit rate both dropped by nearly 1 each per nine innings. I think the only real concern now is how well he will hold up over a full season.

-- MWE
   9. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: January 18, 2012 at 06:29 PM (#4039723)
3,000 hits for Damon.

Using my own stupid calculations, I came up with about a 60% chance of it happening for him.
   10. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 18, 2012 at 06:31 PM (#4039724)
Somehow I thought Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon would have more legendary players among their comps.
   11. Barnaby Jones Posted: January 18, 2012 at 06:46 PM (#4039735)
I think the Rays should be pretty satisfied if Moore turns out like Scott Kazmir. Yeah, he went down eventually, and was never the most reliable, but he averaged 4+ WAR over the first 4 years of his career. Considering the attrition rates of pitching prospects, I'd say that's an excellent outcome.

Now Saunders... I think Dan is just taunting Rays fans.
   12. Walt Davis Posted: January 18, 2012 at 07:47 PM (#4039781)
Stubby Clapp!!

I didn't know there was a baseball Terry Bradshaw and he even made the majors. Any relation to the other one?

Not much to say about the projections. Not a lot of depth on the offense and they could also use a SS -- Rodriguez would actually be fine but I don't think they've shown any tendency to making him full-time there (only 49 starts there last year, 14 in Sept).
   13. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 18, 2012 at 08:04 PM (#4039790)
I didn't know there was a baseball Terry Bradshaw and he even made the majors. Any relation to the other one?


I'm not positive, but <A HREF="http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110206&c>I don't think so.</a>
   14. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 18, 2012 at 08:48 PM (#4039822)
I always thought Rodriguez looked fine at ss, but was blocked by better gloves. Not sure how he'd do in '12.
   15. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 18, 2012 at 11:51 PM (#4039935)
Also, Vogt should have a rating for LF - that and catching are his two main positions.
   16. Jim Wisinski Posted: January 19, 2012 at 12:20 AM (#4039955)
Assuming the bones in Moore's arm don't have a tendency to spontaneously break from the act of pitching then I think things will be ok. It is odd though that two of his three top comps spent the majority of their major league careers in the same organization that he is in, which has only played 14 seasons.

Surprised to see that Damon is project to not just reach 300 hits but to surpass it by 123. If he actually does that then I think it really helps his case with the BBWAA since it would show that he didn't just hang around long enough to crawl over the milestone.

Rodriguez looked fine at SS range-wise, he can cover a lot of ground at 2B and that translated well enough to short. He was much more error-prone there, nine errors of which six were on throws. There's probably an adjustment issue there with the longer throws that would be mitigated with more playing time. UZR/150 had him at -3.8 which sounds about right, if he reduces the errors then he'd be average or a tick above in the future.

The catcher situation is obviously weak but if Lobaton and Molina were to actually hit to those OPS+s then that would be acceptable enough since they're both good glove men (and Molina might be a game-calling god or something).

The fielding lines for Zobrist and Rodriguez are just fun to look at.

That looks like a HOF line for Longoria if he reaches it unless the 3B blind spot kills him too.

Guyer's projection looks about right. He's supposed to be a very good defender so if he can figure something out and take a real step forward then he could be an acceptable starter but as things are now he lacks the secondary skills to be an above average hitter. His good minor league lines are mainly BA driven without actually being a high-contact guy.


Walt, if you look at Rodriguez's game logs for '11 you'll see that the vast majority of his starts at SS were from late July on. The Rays were definitely giving him a long look at the position and unless a trade suddenly brings in somebody else then I'm pretty sure he's the everyday SS in 2012. The only thing that might make a difference is if Brignac shows up in spring training without that useless long uppercut swing and shows that he might actually be able to hit MLB pitching again. If he shows promise then he might muscle in on the position a bit but I'm pretty sure he's going to have to earn anything more than spot starts.
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 19, 2012 at 12:33 AM (#4039962)
Vogt'll have ratings at first and left - I just forgot to give them to him.
   18. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 19, 2012 at 12:34 AM (#4039964)
Oops, I did give him the 1B one already. FR/86 for left.
   19. Jim Wisinski Posted: January 19, 2012 at 12:42 AM (#4039967)
I'd love to know how the second paragraph of my Rodriguez comment ended up on the bottom of the post instead of right after the first.
   20. shattnering his Dominicano G Strings on that Mound Posted: January 19, 2012 at 01:11 AM (#4039981)
I know it's not the world we live in, but goddoggit I wish the Rays would sign Prince Fielder.
   21. Walt Davis Posted: January 19, 2012 at 06:22 AM (#4040032)
I did look at the game logs and he was starting SS only about half the time at the end of the year. He got pulled early in a couple of those (PH?). He got at least 2 starts in the playoffs (one of the box scores seems to be missing). Tney might give him the full-time job this year but I wouldn't count on it.
   22. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: January 19, 2012 at 06:40 AM (#4040035)
Johnny Damon - 3000 hits & 600 doubles - HOF?


Not to mention over 1800 runs, 1000 XBH and 450 SB at a excellent rate.
I guess it would depend on when he hits the ballot and how the deluge of over qualified guys of the next few years plays out.
I really don't see how you keep him out with the totality of his career. Being a good player for ever does have alot of value.
   23. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: January 19, 2012 at 02:22 PM (#4040330)
Damon wouldn't be the worst guy we've put in...but, one *of* the worst?
   24. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: January 19, 2012 at 03:11 PM (#4040423)
Love Longoria's comps. A Hall of Famer, a soon-to-be Hall of Famer, and a guy whose nickname was "Darkie".
   25. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: January 19, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4040460)
We've put in some pretty bad players. Damon's got 51.6 bbref WAR. Compare to Jim Rice, who's a very weak choice but probably not at the very bottom of the hall, who has only 41.5 bbref WAR.

(Fangraphs has Rice at 56 WAR and Damon at only 46, fwiw, that's a pretty gigantic difference)

Edit: Damon slots in between Buck Ewing and Red Faber amongst HoFers in bbref WAR.
   26. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: January 19, 2012 at 03:39 PM (#4040465)
Also, man, the Rays are going to be awesome again.
   27. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: January 19, 2012 at 04:07 PM (#4040501)
(Fangraphs has Rice at 56 WAR and Damon at only 46, fwiw, that's a pretty gigantic difference)


Somebody's not doing it right, and for my sanity I hope it's Fangraphs.
   28. Walt Davis Posted: January 21, 2012 at 06:34 PM (#4042001)
Somebody's not doing it right, and for my sanity I hope it's Fangraphs.

One of the mysteries of these two is how much they can disagree on offense.

Fangraphs rates Rice 57 runs better on offense than b-r but both are supposedly comparing to average. Fangraphs also gives him 30 more runs of replacement value. Finally, Fangraphs doesn't seem to be penalizing him for all the DP -- he gets -46 from b-r here. (Or DP are included in the offense in which case there's an even bigger difference between the two in the value of his offense.)

I can't see why they would differ so substantially on Rice's offensive worth.

Anyway, Damon also gets 60 more runs on offense on fangraphs than he does on b-r. Fangraphs baserunning only goes back to 2002 and they rate his baserunning value substantially lower (so 44 to 27 during the common period plus 31 Rbr not counted in fangraphs). So that pretty much wipes out the offensive difference. B-r gives Damon another 62 runs in Rroe and Rdp which apparently aren't in fangraphs (or, again, the offensive difference is much greater). There's a couple wins difference on defense but this is made up by fangraphs higher replacement value.
   29. Derb Posted: January 31, 2012 at 05:44 PM (#4050647)
Any chance at a Chris Bootcheck rating? He spent last year with the Rays, and just signed a minor league deal with Detroit.

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