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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, February 08, 2012

2012 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers

What's there to say about the Rangers, really? It's a deep team with a very good farm system that'll be there at the end of the season. The team's still a bit underrated defensively - I'm not sure how much the general public really comprehends just how good the non-Beltre defenders generally are. Even Mike Napoli, considered a serviceable backstop at best, made great strides defensively last season. ZiPS saw the Angels pulling even with the Rangers this season, but the Rangers landed Darvish. I had argued that the Rangers should have made a play at Fielder (before the Darvish bidding), but given the massive deal Boras squeezed out of the Tigers, the Rangers appeared to have made the safer bet.

I know Barden and German are in Japan - if you tl;dr the article and email or tweet me to inform me of this fact, I will send demons to devour your eternal soul. Not quite sure how, but I think Ron Popeil makes such a product.

Next Up: Oakland A's, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Mike Napoli       R    C    30   .272 .361 .538 118 383  59 104  22   1  26  67  50 102   5   3  132
Ian Kinsler       R    2B   30   .274 .360 .474 135 536  92 147  30   4  23  71  67  69  25   5  117
Josh Hamilton     L    LF   31   .289 .342 .497 126 499  70 144  29   3  23  87  41  99   8   2  117
Nelson Cruz       R    RF   31   .269 .327 .511 126 476  63 128  27   2  28  82  41 113  14   5  116
Adrian Beltre     R    3B   33   .289 .329 .488 128 502  68 145  32   1  22  80  28  67   4   1  111
Michael Young     R    3B   35   .291 .336 .431 144 585  72 170  32   4  14  76  43  87   6   2  100
David Murphy      L    LF   30   .269 .328 .422 124 412  48 111  20   2  13  53  38  74  11   4   95
Mitch Moreland    L    1B   26   .264 .329 .424 143 526  63 139  29   2  17  68  49 103   3   2   96
Elvis Andrus      R    SS   23   .275 .348 .350 156 612  87 168  26   4   4  50  65  83  37  13   84
Brad Hawpe        L    1B   33   .235 .329 .404  95 307  37  72  17   1  11  44  42  99   1   1   91
Julio Borbon      L    CF   26   .276 .319 .363 125 460  61 127  16   6   4  41  25  64  28   8   79
Conor Jackson     R    1B   30   .255 .330 .367  87 286  35  73  15   1   5  43  30  40   5   1   83
Yangervis Solarte B    2B   24   .279 .311 .392 103 398  46 111  23   2   6  36  16  38   4   3   83
Michael Olt       R    3B   23   .230 .310 .388  95 361  37  83  16   1  13  46  41 115   3   1   82
Brandon Snyder    R    1B   25   .253 .301 .391 138 514  57 130  28   2  13  75  32 122   2   2   80
Craig Gentry      R    CF   28   .247 .309 .334 107 356  49  88  13   3   4  31  24  68  22   3   69
Brad Nelson       L    1B   29   .235 .303 .389 121 447  47 105  22   1  15  58  44  99   3   2   80
Chad S. Tracy     R    1B   26   .234 .291 .397 135 534  54 125  28   1  19  78  39 124   4   1   79
Esteban German    R    3B   34   .249 .316 .331 127 481  54 120  21   3   4  44  46  76  29   7   70
Greg Miclat       B    2B   24   .259 .321 .313 137 505  68 131  18   3   1  30  42 114  30   6   68
Yorvit Torrealba  R    C    33   .263 .309 .370  92 319  29  84  17   1   5  35  21  57   2   3   77
Brian Barden      R    3B   31   .258 .304 .373  85 271  29  70  14   1   5  28  16  58   1   2   77
Leonys Martin     L    CF   24   .270 .325 .350 109 426  44 115  19   3   3  36  30  74  21  15   78
Dusty Brown       R    C    30   .238 .301 .366  81 265  26  63  16   0   6  29  23  68   1   1   74
Chris Robinson    R    C    28   .263 .292 .342  77 266  26  70  13   1   2  31   9  44   3   1   66
Joey Butler       R    RF   26   .241 .295 .345 139 548  53 132  24   3   9  49  38 184   9   5   68
Matt Kata         B    2B   34   .240 .280 .344 114 404  37  97  20   2   6  43  17  64   4   1   63
Engel Beltre      L    CF   22   .253 .292 .333 148 565  51 143  19   7   4  37  24 119  18  10   64
Tommy Mendonca    L    3B   24   .231 .283 .357 146 571  51 132  26   2  14  57  32 203   1   3   67
Val Majewski      L    LF   31   .227 .288 .340  51 194  21  44   8   1   4  25  16  49   3   2   64
Luis Martinez     R    C    27   .234 .301 .314  99 338  37  79  16   1   3  35  30  84   2   1   62
Luis Hernandez    B    2B   28   .243 .278 .332 123 419  41 102  16   3   5  44  19  74   6   3   59
Kyle Hudson       L    LF   25   .253 .316 .283 137 498  63 126  11   2   0  29  43 127  31  16   59
Guilder Rodriguez B    SS   28   .243 .295 .272 117 408  40  99   8   2   0  28  30  64  12   5   50
Kevin Cash        R    C    34   .209 .282 .294  66 211  15  44   7   1   3  19  20  58   0   0   52

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Mike Napoli              AV  AV/109
Ian Kinsler                           VG/89
Josh Hamilton                                                VG/115   AV/67  VG/102
Nelson Cruz                                                  AV/112          AV/100
Adrian Beltre                                 EX/82
Michael Young                FR/110   PO/94  FR/100
David Murphy                                                  AV/80   PO/93   VG/83
Mitch Moreland                AV/82                          AV/115          AV/106
Elvis Andrus                                          EX/97
Brad Hawpe                   AV/107                                          PO/102
Julio Borbon                                                 VG/134  VG/110
Conor Jackson                 AV/96          PO/114           AV/88          AV/102
Yangervis Solarte                    AV/120   AV/96  PO/117  AV/107
Michael Olt                                  AV/157
Brandon Snyder               AV/144          FR/111
Craig Gentry                                                 VG/114   EX/96  VG/114
Brad Nelson                   AV/96          PO/117          FR/103          FR/103
Chad S. Tracy                FR/116                           FR/84
Esteban German                       FR/110  FR/153  FR/117  FR/119   PO/89
Greg Miclat                          AV/127          FR/136
Yorvit Torrealba         AV
Brian Barden                 FR/114  PO/100   AV/96   PO/99                   FR/97
Leonys Martin                                                VG/114  VG/123  VG/114
Dusty Brown              AV
Chris Robinson           AV  AV/112
Joey Butler                                                  FR/115  FR/134  FR/148
Matt Kata                     AV/99  AV/123  AV/102  FR/116  VG/112  FR/118   FR/93
Engel Beltre                                                 VG/103  VG/158  VG/103
Tommy Mendonca                               VG/125
Val Majewski                 FR/106                           FR/80           AV/93
Luis Martinez            AV
Luis Hernandez                        AV/97  FR/116   FR/83
Kyle Hudson                                                   VG/98  AV/102   VG/98
Guilder Rodriguez                     AV/83  AV/118   FR/96  AV/102  FR/101
Kevin Cash               FR  FR/117          FR/118

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Neftali Feliz     R      24     3.49    14    7   28   28   170.3  154   66   14   64  144   130
Yu Darvish        R      25     3.62    13    7   26   26   194.0  196   78   18   46  169   125
Alexi Ogando      R      28     3.72    12    7   27   26   150.0  139   62   14   50  121   122
Matt Harrison     L      26     3.97    12    8   26   26   156.3  159   69   14   52  103   114
Derek Holland     L      25     4.16    11    8   28   28   173.0  173   80   20   62  141   109
Colby Lewis       R      32     4.17    13    9   30   30   183.7  177   85   26   57  160   109
Scott Feldman     R      29     4.68     7    7   25   18   117.3  128   61   14   37   68    97
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Martin Perez      L      21     4.76     7    7   27   26   134.3  155   71   13   52  100    95
Neil Ramirez      R      23     5.01     6    7   29   28   116.7  125   65   15   54   91    90
Douglas Arguello  L      27     5.10     5    6   26   14    83.0   90   47    8   49   53    89
Robert Ross       L      23     5.16     9    9   27   26   139.7  167   80   16   49   72    88
Michael Kirkman   L      25     5.17     6    6   35   15   115.0  124   66   14   63   87    88
Brandon Webb      R      33     5.18     3    3    8    8    41.7   49   24    5   16   20    87
Miguel De Los SantL      23     5.42     5    6   21   18    81.3   82   49   11   63   78    83
Greg Reynolds     R      26     5.64     5    7   21   16    97.3  124   61   14   27   44    80
Eric Hurley       R      26     5.94     5    7   17   17    86.3  111   57   12   38   35    76
Jacob Brigham     R      24     6.13     5    8   30   17   105.7  128   72   15   66   66    74
Derek Hankins     R      28     6.39     5    7   28   12    88.7  111   63   17   39   45    71
Zach Jackson      L      29     6.42     4    8   30   15   109.3  145   78   17   51   47    70
Brett Tomko       R      39     6.90     3    6   18   12    74.3   98   57   17   33   40    66

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Mike Adams        R      33     3.23     4    2   61    0    55.7   47   20    6   15   52   140
Koji Uehara       R      37     3.35     2    1   45    0    43.0   36   16    6    8   49   135
Joe Nathan        R      37     3.80     2    1   52    0    47.3   42   20    7   16   50   119
Yoshinori TateyamaR      36     3.86     2    1   47    0    56.0   53   24    7   15   52   117
Mark Lowe         R      29     4.13     4    3   49    0    48.0   47   22    6   19   43   110
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Mike Gonzalez     L      34     4.44     3    2   51    0    46.7   45   23    7   20   45   102
Tanner Scheppers  R      25     4.62     2    2   39    0    48.7   51   25    5   23   38    98
Justin M. Miller  R      25     4.71     5    4   44    0    57.3   57   30    6   32   44    96
Matthew West      R      23     4.73     2    1   25    0    26.7   30   14    3    7   17    96
Joe Beimel        L      35     4.86     2    2   52    0    37.0   41   20    5   14   22    93
Sean Green        R      33     5.06     2    2   45    0    48.0   52   27    5   26   31    89
Mark Hamburger    R      25     5.10     5    6   47    2    72.3   78   41   10   34   47    89
Mason Tobin       R      24     5.40     0    0    4    0     5.0    5    3    1    2    3    84
Mitch Stetter     L      31     5.65     1    1   40    0    28.7   33   18    5   13   22    80
Fabio Castillo    R      23     5.82     3    4   43    0    51.0   60   33    6   33   31    78

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Adrian Beltre        .276  .324  .464  2661 10135  1336  2799   587    32   419  1518   678  1544   132   106
Michael Young        .299  .343  .440  2091  8523  1178  2545   477    65   200  1120   595  1289   104   102
Elvis Andrus         .269  .348  .350  2232  8597  1256  2316   379    58    65   715   971  1200   411    84
Ian Kinsler          .267  .346  .446  1788  7096  1185  1897   384    40   268   872   796   866   289   106
Josh Hamilton        .289  .343  .496  1361  5340   760  1545   311    38   239   910   437  1000    75   117
Mike Napoli          .261  .344  .485  1678  5427   766  1418   282    10   304   832   623  1305    63   116
Nelson Cruz          .264  .321  .484  1271  4682   603  1236   256    18   246   751   385  1036   115   108
Mitch Moreland       .260  .326  .416  1159  4206   495  1094   230    12   134   528   397   786    22    93
Brad Hawpe           .266  .357  .460  1160  3782   498  1006   223    26   153   610   533  1051    16   107
Yorvit Torrealba     .259  .312  .382  1105  3627   374   941   203    15    70   428   257   663    23    80
David Murphy         .273  .330  .427  1023  3341   414   911   179    16   102   447   302   587    76    97

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Colby Lewis           122  114    0    4.75  347  310     1896 1924 1002  293  662 1566     96
Brandon Webb           98   75    0    3.52  233  232     1503 1419  588  115  507 1151    131
Scott Feldman          90   88    0    4.80  382  231     1563 1690  834  197  533  896     94

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Mike Napoli       C      80%  15%   4%   1%   0%       Chris Hoiles      Andy Seminick    Mike Macfarlane
Ian Kinsler       2B     72%  14%   8%   5%   1%       Billy Werber         Lonny Frey       Marcus Giles
Josh Hamilton     LF     28%  31%  17%  14%  10%       Jim Northrup        Ben Oglivie    Willie Crawford
Nelson Cruz       RF     26%  30%  18%  15%  11%    Richard Hidalgo      Larry Parrish       Jermaine Dye
Adrian Beltre     3B     20%  32%  24%  15%   9%      Matt Williams        Mike Lowell       Hank Majeski
Michael Young     3B      7%  19%  25%  27%  22%       Paul Molitor     Jerry Mumphrey        Jeff Conine
David Murphy      LF      2%  10%  14%  24%  49%          Del Unser       Stu Pederson      Raul Gonzalez
Mitch Moreland    1B      0%   5%  11%  33%  50%       Kelly Snider          J.T. Snow        Danny Lewis
Elvis Andrus      SS      8%  18%  32%  26%  17%      Pee Wee Reese     Edgar Renteria     Scott Fletcher
Brad Hawpe        1B      1%   4%   6%  22%  67%        Lee Stevens         Tony Clark       Mike Blowers
Julio Borbon      CF      3%   5%  13%  30%  49%       Mike Spidale       Alex Sanchez           Rudy Law
Conor Jackson     1B      0%   1%   4%  20%  75%        Ruben Amaro    Chris Pritchett          Nate Espy
Yangervis Solarte 2B      3%   5%   9%  22%  61%      Dean DeCillis     Manny Castillo         Jose Vidro
Michael Olt       3B      2%   6%  10%  19%  64%      Mike Costanzo         Jeff Manto         Greg David
Brandon Snyder    1B      0%   0%   1%   8%  91%       Bryan LahairGuillermo Velasquez         Ron Coomer
Craig Gentry      CF      1%   3%  10%  24%  62%        Wayne Lydon   Trenidad Hubbard        Tom Goodwin
Brad Nelson       1B      0%   1%   2%   9%  88%     James Clifford         Jim O'Dell         Jay Gainer
Chad S. Tracy     1B      0%   0%   2%  10%  87%    Troy Farnsworth     Tommy Everidge        Luis Garcia
Esteban German    3B      2%   3%   5%  12%  78%         Julio Lugo      Mark Belanger        Tony Taylor
Greg Miclat       2B      1%   2%   7%  19%  71%        Pat Listach    Harold Reynolds         Manuel Lee
Yorvit Torrealba  C       1%   5%  11%  27%  56%     Robert Machado         Dan Wilson      Charlie Berry
Brian Barden      3B      1%   1%   3%  11%  84%         Bill Stein          Dave Berg       Rich Rollins
Leonys Martin     CF      1%   1%   4%  12%  82%       Jonathan Jay       Rick Manning         Leo Garcia
Dusty Brown       C       1%   5%   9%  24%  61%       Dave Parrish       Carl Nichols         Bill Hayes
Chris Robinson    C       0%   1%   2%  12%  85%        Ken Huckaby Angelo Encarnacion        Omir Santos
Joey Butler       RF      0%   0%   0%   1%  99%         Wil Culmer     George Hinshaw      Vernon Thomas
Matt Kata         2B      0%   1%   2%   5%  92%        Ed Brinkman         Geoff Blum        Neifi Perez
Engel Beltre      CF      0%   0%   1%   5%  93%       Trench Davis       Keiunta Span  Fredrick Tiburcio
Tommy Mendonca    3B      1%   0%   1%   3%  95%         Greg David         Stan Royer       Brook Jacoby
Val Majewski      LF      0%   1%   1%   2%  97%       Marc Sagmoen        Nate Murphy           Lou List
Luis Martinez     C       0%   0%   2%   9%  89%      Trey Lunsford       Dave Parrish        Ray Corbett
Luis Hernandez    2B      0%   0%   1%   3%  96%    Carlo Colombino  Gary Miller-Jones        Casey Smith
Kyle Hudson       LF      0%   0%   0%   0%  99%   LaSchelle Tarver     Leo Sutherland       Bruce Fields
Guilder Rodriguez SS      0%   0%   1%   3%  97%       Tom Runnells     Jarrett Stotts        Casey Smith
Kevin Cash        C       0%   0%   1%   3%  96%  George Mitterwald     Kirt Manwaring       Chad Moeller

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Mike Adams        RP      70%    25%     5%     Trevor Hoffman  Rafael Betancourt     John Wetteland
Koji Uehara       RP      68%    27%     5%     Rollie Fingers        Bob Wickman      Russ Springer
Neftali Feliz     SP      86%     8%     6%        Rich Harden    Carlos Zambrano        Jim Maloney
Yu Darvish        SP      73%    17%    10%         Ben Sheets     Javier Vazquez         Roy Oswalt
Alexi Ogando      SP      71%    24%     5%       A.J. Burnett       Tommy Greene      Bartolo Colon
Joe Nathan        RP      33%    49%    18%          Lee Smith          Tom Henke       Todd Worrell
Yoshinori TateyamaRP      36%    49%    15%         Jay Howell      Rick Aguilera         Dave Veres
Matt Harrison     SP      60%    32%     8%       Randy Tomlin       Mike Hampton    Justin Thompson
Mark Lowe         RP      29%    48%    23%      Darren Holmes      Steve Andrade      Antonio Osuna
Derek Holland     SP      49%    46%     5%         Randy Wolf        Britt Burns         Noah Lowry
Colby Lewis       SP      44%    50%     6%   Todd Stottlemyre     Javier Vazquez      Pedro Astacio
Mike Gonzalez     RP      16%    46%    38%      Trever Miller         Tim Byrdak     Keith Comstock
Tanner Scheppers  RP      14%    43%    43%  Francisco Cordero        Kevin Barry      Scott Gentile
Scott Feldman     SP      22%    59%    19%         Ron Mathis         Mike Grace         Mark Clark
Justin M. Miller  RP      15%    46%    39%        Saul Rivera        Kevin Barry         Bob Gibson
Matthew West      RP      22%    42%    36%       Steve Kealey       Rick Behenna          Dan Giese
Martin Perez      SP      17%    64%    19%      Mark Thurmond      Danny Jackson          Ted Lilly
Joe Beimel        RP      12%    33%    55%     Lee Guetterman     Eric Gunderson       Kevin Hickey
Neil Ramirez      SP      11%    52%    37%         John Maine           Bob Walk       A.J. Burnett
Sean Green        RP       9%    35%    56%     Kevin Gryboski      Ernie Camacho       Bryce Florie
Douglas Arguello  SP      10%    45%    45%       Bobby Sprowl          Pat Gomez     Matt Whisenant
Mark Hamburger    RP       3%    32%    65%        Aaron Small        Jason Flach        Mike Lumley
Robert Ross       SP       7%    51%    43%         Jeff Mutis        Brad Halsey       Mike Linskey
Michael Kirkman   SP       1%    34%    64%       Ramon Romero      Morris Madden        Bryan Clark
Brandon Webb      SP      19%    30%    52%       Sean Bergman        Chuck Smith     Eric Rasmussen
Mason Tobin       RP      21%    24%    54%      Jose Santiago       Steve Barber         Greg Bauer
Miguel De Los SantSP       6%    33%    61%   Carlos Hernandez          Al Leiter          Rich Hill
Seth McClung      RP       2%    18%    80%        Matt Albers         Karl Drews          Jim Owens
Greg Reynolds     SP       2%    25%    73%      Doug Waechter        Dave Eiland        Keith Evans
Mitch Stetter     RP       4%    21%    75%      Jason Brosnan       Joey Eischen      Scott Watkins
Fabio Castillo    RP       1%    15%    84%        Rick Greene    Felix Rodriguez     Jose Rodriguez
Eric Hurley       SP       1%    17%    83%   Preston Larrison      Juan Sandoval         Brian Bass
Jacob Brigham     SP       0%     9%    91%       Chris Kinsey      Travis Hughes     Willis Roberts
Derek Hankins     SP       0%     2%    98%      Wes Wilkerson        Mike Walker           Lou Pote
Zach Jackson      SP       0%     4%    96%       Chris Peters     Kevin Rawitzer     Jeff Musselman
Brett Tomko       SP       1%     7%    93%       Danny Darwin        Mike Morgan       Lew Burdette

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Mike Napoli             17%      33%      73%       0%       0%      31%      33%       0%
Ian Kinsler             16%      30%      25%       3%       2%      17%      11%      24%
Josh Hamilton           31%      12%      46%       3%       2%      18%      12%       2%
Nelson Cruz             12%       5%      57%       1%       0%      41%      11%       5%
Adrian Beltre           32%       5%      36%       4%       0%      12%       5%       0%
Michael Young           34%       7%       6%       5%       3%       2%       2%       0%
David Murphy            10%       4%       4%       0%       0%       1%       1%       2%
Mitch Moreland           6%       3%       3%       2%       1%       2%       0%       0%
Elvis Andrus            13%      15%       0%       2%       5%       0%       0%      69%
Brad Hawpe               1%       6%       3%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Julio Borbon            15%       2%       0%       0%      10%       0%       0%      36%
Conor Jackson            6%       7%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Yangervis Solarte       21%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Michael Olt              1%       2%       3%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Brandon Snyder           1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Craig Gentry             2%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%      13%
Brad Nelson              1%       1%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Chad S. Tracy            0%       0%       1%       1%       0%       3%       0%       0%
Esteban German           2%       2%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%      50%
Greg Miclat              4%       2%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%      48%
Yorvit Torrealba         9%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brian Barden             9%       2%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Leonys Martin           11%       3%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%      13%
Dusty Brown              2%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Chris Robinson           9%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Joey Butler              0%       0%       0%       0%       3%       0%       0%       0%
Matt Kata                1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Engel Beltre             2%       0%       0%       0%      24%       0%       0%       6%
Tommy Mendonca           0%       0%       1%       1%       1%       2%       0%       0%
Val Majewski             2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Luis Martinez            1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Luis Hernandez           1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Kyle Hudson              2%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%      53%
Guilder Rodriguez        1%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Kevin Cash               0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Mike Adams                65%        94%        65%        24%        65%
Koji Uehara               59%        92%        95%        79%        44%
Neftali Feliz             55%        93%        30%         0%        87%
Yu Darvish                42%        92%        37%        38%        80%
Alexi Ogando              33%        88%        20%         2%        78%
Joe Nathan                33%        76%        88%         6%        36%
Yoshinori Tateyama        28%        80%        58%        28%        40%
Matt Harrison             20%        85%         1%         3%        80%
Mark Lowe                 22%        71%        48%         3%        49%
Derek Holland             14%        77%        19%         1%        48%
Colby Lewis               12%        72%        40%         5%        21%
Mike Gonzalez             16%        54%        63%         1%        33%
Tanner Scheppers          10%        49%        19%         0%        55%
Scott Feldman              4%        47%         1%         6%        46%
Justin M. Miller          11%        54%        13%         0%        57%
Matthew West              22%        54%         4%        47%        58%
Martin Perez               2%        45%         5%         0%        72%
Joe Beimel                12%        36%         3%         9%        40%
Neil Ramirez               1%        31%        11%         0%        37%
Sean Green                 6%        36%         3%         0%        62%
Douglas Arguello           2%        24%         2%         0%        73%
Mark Hamburger             2%        23%         1%         0%        35%
Robert Ross                1%        19%         0%         1%        55%
Michael Kirkman            1%        23%         7%         0%        50%
Brandon Webb               6%        32%         0%         6%        64%
Mason Tobin               21%        46%        12%        30%        86%
Miguel De Los Sant         1%        17%        66%         0%        36%
Seth McClung               1%        16%         2%         0%        47%
Greg Reynolds              0%         8%         0%        21%        30%
Mitch Stetter              4%        18%        15%         3%        22%
Fabio Castillo             0%         8%         0%         0%        55%
Eric Hurley                0%         4%         0%         0%        37%
Jacob Brigham              0%         1%         0%         0%        26%
Derek Hankins              0%         1%         0%         0%         7%
Zach Jackson               0%         1%         0%         0%        15%
Brett Tomko                0%         2%         1%         3%        10%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
Marlins
Diamondbacks
Indians
Nationals
Blue Jays
Rays
Royals
Reds
Brewers
Orioles
Rockies
Braves
Astros
Cardinals
Dodgers
Twins
Giants
Mariners
Angels
White Sox
Tigers
Mets
Phillies
Cubs
Red Sox
Yankees

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 08, 2012 at 12:33 PM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: February 08, 2012 at 12:54 PM (#4056419)
Well, sure Mike Young is a good fielder - but after that?

Um, nice rotation - their 6th starter (if we take these projections at face value) has a 109 ERA+. Decent pen too...
   2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: February 08, 2012 at 01:10 PM (#4056435)
Mark Hamburger


Mike Francesca thinks this is a prank post.

Good numbers for Yu. Not so much for Leonys Martin.

If Napoli has that kind of year, what kind of contract do you think he'll get? I can't remember the last big contract a catcher got, especially one that defensively-challenged. Piazza, I suppose.
   3. Spahn Insane Posted: February 08, 2012 at 01:28 PM (#4056453)
Those Feliz and Ogando projections look pretty rosy, as starters.
   4. Something Other Posted: February 08, 2012 at 01:36 PM (#4056462)
Um, nice rotation - their 6th starter (if we take these projections at face value) has a 109 ERA+. Decent pen too...
Does make their decision to not re-sign Wilson make sense, eh?
   5. Jim Wisinski Posted: February 08, 2012 at 01:45 PM (#4056478)
So chances are Darvish is going to go on to suck for the Yankees before having his career collapse from injuries? Also a decent chance he'll ask for a bulldozer in his next contract.
   6. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: February 08, 2012 at 01:49 PM (#4056483)
Is Ogando going to be in the rotation in April?
   7. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: February 08, 2012 at 01:55 PM (#4056487)
Jesus that's a rotation - obviously with the caveat, if the reliever->starter conversions work.

Dan, since you've done reliever->starter projections for Feliz and Ogando, would you be able to run them for the Red Sox conversion candidates - Bard and Aceves? Thanks.
   8. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 08, 2012 at 02:25 PM (#4056524)
I know Barden and German are in Japan


Thanks for doing that, by the way. I'm always curious about how those kinds of guys project, even if they aren't going to be in the US next year.
   9. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: February 08, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4056526)
Mark Hamburger


Mike Francesca thinks this is a prank post.


Supreme Court Justice Felix Frankfurter? Of course I know about him! Who can forget his seminal dissent in the case of United States vs. Pull The Other One, It's Got Bells On It.
   10. Dan Posted: February 08, 2012 at 02:35 PM (#4056546)
Dan, since you've done reliever->starter projections for Feliz and Ogando, would you be able to run them for the Red Sox conversion candidates - Bard and Aceves? Thanks.


I was going to ask for Bard too.
   11. Austin Posted: February 08, 2012 at 10:51 PM (#4056905)
Holy moley, this team is stacked. I'd go with everyone else in taking the way, way under on Feliz (and probably Ogando as well), though.
   12. Vance W Posted: February 09, 2012 at 01:01 PM (#4057209)
Yep, I'd take the under on Feliz and Ogando but the over on Holland. Not as good at the top end of the rotation as Anaheim but quite deep. Probably a little advantage over the Angels in the pen. The Rangers lineup is a little better too. David Murphy is kind of a key guy. With Hamilton and Cruz missing so many games he is effectively a starting outfielder. So far he has played his role well.
   13. Enrico Pallazzo Posted: February 09, 2012 at 01:40 PM (#4057235)
Definitely agree on Murphy. There is no better team for the guy's career than Texas.
   14. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: February 09, 2012 at 01:44 PM (#4057244)
Um, nice rotation - their 6th starter (if we take these projections at face value) has a 109 ERA+. Decent pen too...

Their seventh and eighth starters are essentially league average.
   15. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: February 09, 2012 at 03:17 PM (#4057355)
When will the full ZiPS spreadsheet be available? Registration for Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball begins today. I need to make sure to schedule the draft for after the full spreadsheet is released.
   16. The Good Face Posted: February 09, 2012 at 03:31 PM (#4057368)
Yep, I'd take the under on Feliz and Ogando but the over on Holland. Not as good at the top end of the rotation as Anaheim but quite deep.


I agree. I think Holland in particular has a good shot to consolidate his gains from last year and become a top of the rotation guy. Thrilled to see such depth in the rotation, last year was awesome, but getting that kind of health and performance out of 5 starters is an anomaly.

David Murphy is kind of a key guy. With Hamilton and Cruz missing so many games he is effectively a starting outfielder. So far he has played his role well.


Not quite as sold on Murphy... he's not terrible or anything, but I see him as an opportunity for improvement. Still, this is a really nice looking team. No black holes of suck, and plenty of guys who are fun to watch/easy to root for.
   17. rr Posted: February 09, 2012 at 03:37 PM (#4057375)
Got a buddy who is a huge Angels fan; we already have tix for a couple of TEX/LAA games in Anaheim. Looking forward to it.
   18. Jarrod HypnerotomachiaPoliphili(Teddy F. Ballgame) Posted: February 09, 2012 at 05:16 PM (#4057469)
Eyeballing those pitcher win projections, it looks like the Rangers will win almost 150 games this year.
   19. HOLLA(R) Posted: February 10, 2012 at 04:53 AM (#4057802)
Eyeballing those pitcher win projections, it looks like the Rangers will win almost 150 games this year.


Yeah, but you should see the number of games they're going to lose.
   20. Dan Szymborski Posted: February 10, 2012 at 01:18 PM (#4058068)
When will the full ZiPS spreadsheet be available? Registration for Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball begins today. I need to make sure to schedule the draft for after the full spreadsheet is released.

0.9 should be released sometime late next week - just have SD, PIT and cleanup/updates to do.
   21. DEF: hates freedom Posted: February 10, 2012 at 01:43 PM (#4058097)
Dan, will Diamond Mind be selling a projection disk for 2012? Or will you make a database available?

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