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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, January 21, 2012

2012 ZiPS Projections - Toronto Blue Jays

Is there any team more happy about baseball adding a second wildcard spot than the Toronto Blue Jays? In the short-term at least (and probable long-term unless the top AL East teams start showing some serious incompetence), Toronto's prospects improve considerably if they don't have to better both the Red Sox and Yankees to make the playoffs. That obviously helps Tampa Bay and Baltimore as well, but the Jays are in that sweet spot where it's pretty darn useful - the Rays can compete for the wild card right now on merits and not need the 50/50 play-in and the O's aren't good enough for a while without a lot of things breaking their way (and about 8 wild cards).

Toronto has a decent lineup and bullpen, but they won't get much about the .500 range without better and deeper starting pitching - hopefully, Double A Arn Anderson Alex Anthopoulos can prove just as canny at swiping some pitchers as he has with guys like Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson, and Colby Rasmus, all players with ability that had their previous teams sour on them prematurely.

Next Up: Washington Nationals

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age    BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Jose Bautista     R    RF  31   .273 .408 .566 136 461  84 126  23   2  36  88 101 107   7   3  158
Brett Lawrie      R    3B  22   .275 .333 .498 148 600  90 165  33  10  27  79  44 135  24   8  119
Edwin Encarnacion R    3B  29   .261 .331 .457 122 433  59 113  26   1  19  59  42  79   4   1  109
Adam Lind         L    1B  28   .264 .315 .466 143 556  66 147  30   2  26  92  40 120   2   1  106
Colby Rasmus      L    CF  25   .250 .322 .454 152 513  86 128  28   4  23  67  56 150   8   4  105
Yunel Escobar     R    SS  29   .272 .351 .393 138 522  71 142  23   2  12  53  58  68   4   3   99
Kelly Johnson     L    2B  30   .242 .323 .434 141 505  72 122  27   5  20  59  59 136  12   6  101
Ben Francisco     R    RF  30   .253 .326 .418 107 297  36  75  17   1  10  43  29  60   7   3   98
Eric Thames       L    LF  25   .250 .313 .428 154 603  83 151  35   6  20  78  45 159   7   3   96
Travis d'Arnaud   R    C   23   .253 .299 .421 118 447  55 113  26   2  15  61  25 117   4   2   90
Travis Snider     L    LF  24   .247 .304 .407 126 477  60 118  29   1  15  66  37 133  12   4   89
Rajai Davis       R    CF  31   .259 .299 .365 121 394  53 102  22   4   4  39  20  69  35  11   77
J.P. Arencibia    R    C   26   .229 .281 .442 131 493  56 113  27   3  24  80  33 141   0   1   90
Luis Valbuena     L    SS  26   .251 .313 .377 145 514  66 129  25   2  12  60  45 118   7   4   84
David Cooper      L    1B  25   .251 .311 .376 149 574  60 144  37   1  11  74  50  97   0   1   83
A.J. Jimenez      R    C   22   .256 .293 .358 115 438  44 112  25   1   6  53  23  98  14   4   74
Anthony Gose      L    CF  21   .230 .300 .374 156 612  89 141  21   8  17  49  51 203  53  27   79
Mike McDade       B    1B  23   .245 .283 .387 151 587  62 144  30   1  17  67  25 161   0   1   78
Mark Teahen       L    3B  30   .239 .300 .364 108 335  39  80  16   1   8  37  28  86   3   2   77
Moises Sierra     R    RF  23   .249 .297 .389 106 406  53 101  14   2  13  57  22  85  10  12   82
Mike McCoy        R    SS  31   .230 .314 .308 117 370  51  85  15   1   4  29  45  74  21   6   68
Ryan Shealy       R    1B  32   .210 .289 .350  69 257  28  54  12   0   8  39  25  83   0   0   71
Darin Mastroianni R    CF  26   .234 .302 .299 141 565  78 132  21   5   2  35  53 123  34  10   62
Adeiny HechavarriaR    SS  23   .241 .269 .345 145 582  65 140  25   6   8  51  23 106  15  11   63
Craig Stansberry  R    3B  30   .217 .283 .316 103 332  39  72  14   2   5  31  29  86   7   4   61
Chris Woodward    R    SS  36   .222 .269 .320 106 387  42  86  18   1   6  35  24  81   3   1   57
Callix Crabbe     B    2B  29   .220 .287 .311  91 305  36  67  12   2   4  28  27  57   9   7   61
Jeff Mathis       R    C   29   .209 .262 .321  88 249  25  52  11   1   5  30  17  77   2   2   55
Brian Jeroloman   L    C   27   .192 .285 .264  96 333  27  64  12   0   4  27  42 128   1   1   49
Brian Bocock      R    SS  27   .200 .266 .265 116 385  37  77  11   1   4  31  35 116   7   6   43

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Jose Bautista                AV/117           AV/89           FR/99  PO/113   FR/99
Brett Lawrie                         AV/166  VG/106
Edwin Encarnacion            AV/122          FR/125
Adam Lind                     AV/66                           PO/89
Colby Rasmus                                                 VG/111  AV/133  VG/118
Yunel Escobar                                         AV/85
Kelly Johnson                         AV/91
Ben Francisco                                                 AV/90   PO/84   FR/95
Eric Thames                                                  FR/123          FR/110
Travis d'Arnaud          AV
Travis Snider                                                AV/192  PO/136  FR/177
Rajai Davis                                                   AV/98   AV/97   VG/98
J.P. Arencibia           FR
Luis Valbuena                         FR/75  AV/103  FR/106   AV/95
David Cooper                 FR/120  FR/137          PO/115
A.J. Jimenez             VG                  FR/124
Anthony Gose                                                 VG/105  VG/124  VG/117
Mike McDade                  VG/143
Mark Teahen                   AV/93  PO/115   PO/89          FR/121           PO/99
Moises Sierra                                                                VG/155
Mike McCoy                            AV/99   AV/93  AV/103  AV/110  FR/109   AV/94
Ryan Shealy                   FR/78
Darin Mastroianni                                            VG/108   AV/95  VG/115
Adeiny Hechavarria                                   AV/104
Craig Stansberry             AV/111   AV/93  VG/117  AV/108
Chris Woodward                       FR/107  AV/112  AV/125  FR/105
Callix Crabbe                        AV/118  AV/106  FR/110   AV/95  FR/117  AV/117
Jeff Mathis              AV
Brian Jeroloman          AV
Brian Bocock                                         VG/106
                  
Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age    ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Ricky Romero      L     27    3.72    15    9   31   31  210.3  190   87   23   79  171  117
Brandon Morrow    R     27    4.12    11    9   32   29  166.0  154   76   18   71  176  106
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
Henderson Alvarez R     22    4.65     9    8   27   25  155.0  175   80   21   31   89   94
Brett Cecil       L     25    5.00    10   11   29   29  174.7  189   97   28   59  122   87
Dustin McGowan    R     30    5.00     4    4   18   17   72.0   77   40   10   34   54   87
Jesse Litsch      R     27    5.18     4    5   22   13   80.0   89   46   12   27   55   84
Joel Carreno      R     25    5.52     6    8   28   22  117.3  132   72   17   63   89   79
Willie Collazo    L     32    5.53     2    3   17    8   55.3   67   34    9   17   27   79
Luis Perez        L     27    5.71     6    9   34   19  121.3  139   77   16   72   78   76
Kyle Drabek       R     24    5.80     8   12   30   27  147.3  170   95   21   87   88   75
B.J. LaMura       R     31    6.16     4    7   34   12   80.3   90   55   12   61   51   71
Mike MacDonald    R     30    6.28     5    9   27   20  116.0  162   81   15   40   44   69
Scott Richmond    R     32    6.30     5    8   20   16   90.0  108   63   19   41   61   69
Yohan Pino        R     28    6.31     5    9   35   15  107.0  134   75   23   34   70   69
Chad Beck         R     27    6.52     5    9   33   18  109.0  146   79   17   51   55   67

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age    ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP    H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Buzz Oliver       L     41    3.33     4    2   53    0   46.0   42   17    4   12   44  131
Sergio Santos     R     28    3.34     5    2   60    0   59.3   49   22    6   25   72  131
Casey Janssen     R     30    3.48     4    2   57    0   62.0   57   24    6   18   58  125
Jason Frasor      R     34    3.88     4    3   60    0   55.7   52   24    6   22   53  112
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Shawn Camp        R     36    4.22     4    3   59    0   64.0   68   30    6   21   38  103
Carlos Villanueva R     28    4.55     4    4   47    8   89.0   92   45   12   31   68   96
Trystan Magnuson  R     27    4.69     3    3   43    0   63.3   68   33    7   26   42   93
Danny Farquhar    R     25    4.95     4    4   56    0   63.7   65   35    7   40   50   88
Alan Farina       R     25    5.12     2    2   31    0   31.7   32   18    4   20   26   85
Aaron Laffey      L     27    5.12     3    3   52    0   58.0   66   33    7   26   31   85
Evan Crawford     L     25    5.23     3    4   49    0   53.3   60   31    6   28   36   83
Jesse Chavez      R     28    5.37     3    4   55    0   63.7   72   38   11   21   45   81
Brian Tallet      L     34    5.57     3    4   27    7   63.0   69   39   11   28   47   78
Clint Everts      R     27    5.66     2    2   46    1   62.0   69   39    8   40   45   77
Vince Perkins     R     30    5.91     1    1   15    0   21.3   24   14    3   17   13   74
Jerry Gil         R     29    6.00     4    7   51    0   57.0   64   38    8   42   40   73
Rommie Lewis      L     29    6.02     3    4   44    2   64.3   77   43   10   33   43   73
Ronald Uviedo     R     25    6.10     3    5   41    6   76.7   86   52   16   39   60   71

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Yunel Escobar       .273  .346  .387  1794  6814   907  1863   297    21   145   689   684   777    49    96
Jose Bautista       .256  .367  .486  2010  6789  1036  1736   340    34   385  1054  1128  1411    88   126
Colby Rasmus        .243  .317  .432  2029  6848  1104  1663   363    46   279   845   745  1829    80    99
Edwin Encarnacion   .257  .327  .438  1694  5969   784  1534   343    10   240   798   556  1032    59   101
Kelly Johnson       .247  .326  .424  1721  6170   881  1527   334    64   210   707   691  1447   121    98
Adam Lind           .261  .311  .450  1510  5787   677  1513   315    17   248   897   402  1158    13   101
Rajai Davis         .266  .309  .369   927  2816   388   748   158    31    24   269   156   468   267    81

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Ricky Romero          180  133    0    3.96  406  405     2680 2495 1179  308 1079 2166    110
Brandon Morrow        134  116   16    4.28  495  343     2091 1914  995  245  956 2258    101

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO     EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Jose Bautista     RF    85%  10%   3%   2%   1%        Ralph Kiner     George Selkirk         Jimmy Wynn
Brett Lawrie      3B    41%  29%  17%  10%   4%      Chipper Jones      Adrian Beltre    Carney Lansford
Edwin Encarnacion 3B    17%  29%  26%  18%  10%     Steve Buechele         Jeff Manto      Scott Brosius
Adam Lind         1B     4%  15%  19%  35%  27%        Matt LeCroy       Larry Sheets         Rod Brewer
Colby Rasmus      CF    20%  23%  30%  19%   7%          Bob Skube        Jessie Reid        Jim Edmonds
Yunel Escobar     SS    22%  23%  29%  19%   7%           Don Wert     Bob Aspromonte     Scott Fletcher
Kelly Johnson     2B    25%  19%  19%  20%  16%       Justin Leone        Kelly Heath      Jose Valentin
Ben Francisco     RF     3%  11%  15%  25%  46%    Prentice Redman        Aaron Guiel         Bruce Aven
Eric Thames       LF     2%  10%  14%  25%  49%           Ted Wood      LaVel Freeman        John Bowker
Travis d'Arnaud   C      8%  22%  24%  28%  18%         Bill Bathe        Randy Knorr      Brook Fordyce
Travis Snider     LF     2%   7%   9%  18%  64%    John Vander Wal       Rick Sofield       Rob Lukachyk
Rajai Davis       CF     4%   6%  18%  31%  41%    Chris Singleton         Greg Tubbs     Rufino Linares
J.P. Arencibia    C      7%  23%  25%  27%  18%       Bobby Hughes          John BuckGiuseppe Chiaramonte
Luis Valbuena     SS     5%  11%  26%  29%  29%         Dale Berra       Ernest Riles        Chris Gomez
David Cooper      1B     0%   0%   2%  13%  85%    Terry Jorgensen      Brian Traxler         Rod Brewer
A.J. Jimenez      C      2%   7%  12%  29%  50%        Jorge Pedre       Rey Palacios        Jeff Mathis
Anthony Gose      CF     8%  20%  21%  19%  32%       Daryl Boston    Herm Winningham       Dave Krynzel
Mike McDade       1B     0%   1%   2%   9%  89%        Lance Belen        Drew DensonGuillermo Velasquez
Mark Teahen       3B     0%   2%   5%  14%  80%       Shanie Dugas      Ray Giannelli     Chris Saunders
Moises Sierra     RF     3%   6%  10%  21%  60%     Brandon Berger         Dan Wagner       Chad Mottola
Mike McCoy        SS     4%   4%  12%  26%  54%    Rabbit Warstler      Mark Belanger         Tim Barker
Ryan Shealy       1B     0%   0%   1%   4%  95%         Jody Davis        Dustan Mohr       Steve Yeager
Darin Mastroianni CF     0%   0%   2%  11%  87%        Tom Goodwin        Wayne Lydon  Sebastien Boucher
Adeiny HechavarriaSS     2%   2%   4%   9%  84%     Gregorio Petit         Buck Coats      Juan Gonzalez
Craig Stansberry  3B     0%   0%   1%   2%  96%  Trace Coquillette        Jose Santos      Dave Matranga
Chris Woodward    SS     1%   1%   2%   6%  90%       Shane Halter         Rico Rossy      Mark Belanger
Callix Crabbe     2B     1%   0%   1%   2%  97%         Tim Cullen  Gary Miller-Jones         Doug Baker
Jeff Mathis       C      1%   1%   1%   4%  93%        Chris Curry    Paul Chiaffredo      Rebecca Black
Brian Jeroloman   C      0%   0%   0%   1%  98%      Adam Donachie        Jean Boscan        Joe Hietpas
Brian Bocock      SS     0%   0%   0%   1%  99%       Scott Powers     Derek Mitchell         Les Dennis

Player            PO     TOP   MID   BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Buzz Oliver       RP     60%   34%    5%     Larry Andersen        John Franco         Doug Jones
Sergio Santos     RP     64%   31%    5%       Bryan Harvey        Jeff Little      Jose Valverde
Casey Janssen     RP     59%   35%    6% Jason Isringhausen          J.J. Putz          Tim Scott
Ricky Romero      SP     68%   27%    5%         Barry Zito     Wilson Alvarez      Chris Nabholz
Jason Frasor      RP     31%   52%   18%       Jeff Parrett      Bill Campbell       Rich DeLucia
Brandon Morrow    SP     46%   47%    6%      Bruce Berenyi        Juan Guzman         Bobby Witt
Shawn Camp        RP     21%   45%   34%      Mike Marshall     Mark Petkovsek         Bob Locker
Carlos Villanueva RP      6%   48%   46%         John Flinn    Mark Williamson     Keith Atherton
Henderson Alvarez SP     14%   61%   25%        Mike Miller           Tim Hamm         Chris Holt
Trystan Magnuson  RP      6%   42%   53%      Brian Schmack   Ehren Wassermann     Laddie Renfroe
Danny Farquhar    RP      3%   31%   66%     Marc Pisciotta         Mike Shade     Eddy Rodriguez
Brett Cecil       SP      5%   48%   47%      Lance Painter       John Cerutti        Frank Viola
Dustin McGowan    SP      8%   38%   54%          Kip Wells         Jason Bere          Tom Edens
Alan Farina       RP     11%   31%   58%         Josh Banks         Mario Soto         Bob Gibson
Aaron Laffey      RP      2%   25%   73%           Sal Urso    Anthony Ferrari          Mike Bell
Jesse Litsch      SP      7%   39%   54%         Doug Jones  Scott Klingenbeck      Mike Thompson
Evan Crawford     RP      2%   25%   72%       Mike Venafro        Clay Rapada         Gary Wayne
Jesse Chavez      RP      1%   19%   80%         Heath Bost       Travis Minix      Darren Hodges
Joel Carreno      SP      1%   22%   77%     Dennis Sarfate      Sean Douglass   Richard Bartlett
Willie Collazo    SP      2%   19%   79%        Tony Fossas       Jason Jacome         Curt Young
Brian Tallet      RP      3%   16%   81%       Kevin Hickey       Rigo Beltran   Larry McWilliams
Clint Everts      RP      1%   11%   88%       Mike Schultz     Ryan Henderson       Kevin Towers
Luis Perez        SP      0%   13%   87%          Brad Weis      Eddie Oropesa       Randy Flores
Kyle Drabek       SP      0%   10%   90%         Danny Kolb     Clint Sodowsky        Brandy Vann
Vince Perkins     RP      5%   10%   85%        Mike Barlow          Paul Giel        Gary Wagner
Jerry Gil         RP      0%    8%   92%      Marty McLeary       Maximo Nunez       Jake Robbins
Rommie Lewis      RP      0%    5%   95%         Joe Beimel        Bobby Bevel          Jake Benz
Ronald Uviedo     RP      0%    4%   96%      Jeff Robinson        Brett Myers          T.J. Beam
B.J. LaMura       SP      0%    4%   96%   Jarod Juelsgaard     Jason Grimsley            Ken Ray
Mike MacDonald    SP      0%    6%   94%         Mike Grace        Steve Comer           Joe Mays
Scott Richmond    SP      1%    6%   94%    Nerio Rodriguez    Jeremy Cummings          Dan Petry
Yohan Pino        SP      0%    1%   99%      Tim McClaskey        Kris Wilson    Brandon Emanuel
Chad Beck         SP      0%    2%   98%     Steven Jackson        Nick Masset    Jeff Farnsworth

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Jose Bautista           19%      81%      82%       0%       1%      74%      74%       0%
Brett Lawrie            15%       6%      42%       7%      46%      34%      13%      24%
Edwin Encarnacion        6%       6%      16%       0%       0%       5%       5%       0%
Adam Lind                6%       1%      17%       3%       1%      27%       3%       0%
Colby Rasmus             2%       3%      12%       1%       3%      14%       2%       1%
Yunel Escobar           14%      20%       2%       0%       0%       2%       2%       0%
Kelly Johnson            1%       3%       6%       1%       5%       7%       1%       2%
Ben Francisco            4%       5%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Eric Thames              1%       1%       5%      11%      16%       7%       0%       0%
Travis d'Arnaud          3%       0%       5%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%
Travis Snider            1%       1%       3%       1%       0%       2%       0%       4%
Rajai Davis              6%       1%       1%       0%       4%       0%       0%      70%
J.P. Arencibia           0%       0%       9%       1%       2%      19%       0%       0%
Luis Valbuena            2%       1%       1%       0%       1%       1%       0%       1%
David Cooper             1%       0%       0%      16%       0%       0%       0%       0%
A.J. Jimenez             3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       6%
Anthony Gose             1%       0%       4%       0%      32%       9%       1%      96%
Mike McDade              1%       0%       1%       4%       0%       4%       0%       0%
Mark Teahen              1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Moises Sierra            2%       0%       3%       0%       1%       1%       0%       2%
Mike McCoy               1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Ryan Shealy              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Darin Mastroianni        0%       0%       0%       1%       6%       0%       0%      67%
Adeiny Hechavarria       1%       0%       2%       1%      14%       2%       0%       4%
Craig Stansberry         0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Chris Woodward           0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Callix Crabbe            0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       1%
Jeff Mathis              0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brian Jeroloman          0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brian Bocock             0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Buzz Oliver               60%        92%        63%        38%        77%
Sergio Santos             56%        90%        97%         1%        76%
Casey Janssen             51%        92%        63%        19%        75%
Ricky Romero              27%        88%        19%         1%        58%
Jason Frasor              23%        77%        68%         1%        60%
Brandon Morrow            13%        74%        89%         0%        62%
Shawn Camp                17%        60%         2%        11%        71%
Carlos Villanueva          4%        42%         8%         3%        36%
Henderson Alvarez          2%        37%         0%        76%        27%
Trystan Magnuson           4%        33%         1%         1%        58%
Danny Farquhar             2%        28%        14%         0%        59%
Brett Cecil                0%        18%         2%         1%         7%
Dustin McGowan             1%        23%         8%         0%        36%
Alan Farina                7%        33%        28%         0%        67%
Aaron Laffey               2%        22%         0%         0%        46%
Jesse Litsch               1%        20%         2%         6%        23%
Evan Crawford              1%        22%         3%         0%        58%
Jesse Chavez               1%        16%         3%         6%        15%
Joel Carreno               0%         6%         6%         0%        23%
Willie Collazo             1%        16%         0%        18%        28%
Brian Tallet               2%        12%        11%         1%        17%
Clint Everts               0%         9%         6%         0%        45%
Luis Perez                 0%         3%         0%         0%        39%
Kyle Drabek                0%         1%         0%         0%        19%
Vince Perkins              3%        15%         4%         0%        54%
Jerry Gil                  0%         4%         4%         0%        37%
Rommie Lewis               0%         3%         1%         0%        20%
Ronald Uviedo              0%         2%        13%         0%         5%
B.J. LaMura                0%         3%         7%         0%        31%
Mike MacDonald             0%         1%         0%         3%        41%
Scott Richmond             0%         2%         3%         0%         5%
Yohan Pino                 0%         1%         0%         6%         2%
Chad Beck                  0%         0%         0%         0%        16%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
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Dan Szymborski Posted: January 21, 2012 at 11:26 AM | 42 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. rawagman Posted: January 21, 2012 at 11:36 AM (#4041817)
Very interesting that you have d'Arnaud as already the equal of Arencibia in terms of OPS+. Slightly more OBP, slightly less power. I think you might be underrating Henderson Alvarez a touch, but on the whole, very interesting.
   2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 21, 2012 at 12:39 PM (#4041841)
What the heck happened to Kyle Drabek? And Travis Snider? Were they not that good to begin with? I remember more than a few Royals fans being pissed they didn't get those two in return for Greinke.
   3. Dan Posted: January 21, 2012 at 12:54 PM (#4041850)
Barry Zito and Wilson Alvarez are Romero's top comps. That doesn't bode well for him having many more good seasons in him.
   4. andrewberg Posted: January 21, 2012 at 01:24 PM (#4041867)
Jeff Mathis might be able to live up top those comps, especially if his role is limited, say to only get down in a crouch on Friday.
   5. Erix Posted: January 21, 2012 at 01:36 PM (#4041877)
Would we be able to get Litsch, Pererz and Cerrano as relievers? Litsch and Perez are starting the season in the pen, and Cerrano is likely first righty up in it.

Also another season with 7 guys hitting 20 dingers? Should be a fun season.
   6. Spivey Posted: January 21, 2012 at 01:45 PM (#4041880)
I'm not surprised, but that's a really nice looking projection for Lawrie.
   7. Xander Posted: January 21, 2012 at 02:07 PM (#4041895)
Bautista is the best player in the sport.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: January 21, 2012 at 02:44 PM (#4041921)
Yep, ZiPS loves it some Lawrie. And another 22-year-old with a better projection than Montero.

Anybody think Encarnacion might be able to handle LF?

And not getting the Rebecca Black comp -- she was a one-hit wonder; Mathis is a no-hit mainstay.
   9. jayjay Posted: January 21, 2012 at 03:22 PM (#4041937)
For fun... Bautista's 2010 ZiP: .227/.324/.389
   10. Greg K Posted: January 21, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4041943)
It's probably me being a negative nervous nelly nincimpoop, but I will, with trembling hand, take the under on Bautista. I have no idea why, but I fear the magic may be ending.

Eric Thames is depressingly almost exactly where I figured. I'd really love for him to be a legit starting OF, but I fear it is not to be.

This suggests what I already believe - that D'Arnaud is ready to be the starting catcher now. But I'm guessing it's Arencibia for 2012 (to build trade value and also to give D'Arnaud some more seasoning)

Lawrie = yay!
Rasmus I'd be happy with that

On the pitching side, Henderson Alvarez is an odd guy. He throws very hard, and with crazy movement, but has the K/BB ratio of a Mark Buehrle. He certainly LOOKS like a good pitcher in person...but we all know how much that means.

I've always avoided asking for more projections as I don't want to come off as unappreciative of all the hard work. But this time I'll risk it! Where does Drew Hutchison stand? Or is only 80 innings above A not enough.
   11. Greg K Posted: January 21, 2012 at 03:40 PM (#4041944)
Anybody think Encarnacion might be able to handle LF?

Interesting thought. What makes him so horrible at 3B isn't his athleticism so much as it is his inability to throw so it's not as crazy as it sounds at first. I'd suspect no, but who knows. Though oddly enough with all the guys the Jays have talked about playing OF (Rasmus, Thames, Snider, Francisco even Kelly Johnson!) DH seems like the only spot open for E5.
   12. Derb Posted: January 21, 2012 at 04:04 PM (#4041950)
A little disappointed. Was hoping for slightly better for d'Arnaud. Was also hoping to see what ZiPS thought of Deck McGuire. Guess I have to wait another year to see his projections...
   13. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: January 21, 2012 at 04:17 PM (#4041951)
Can we get a Frank Francisco projection, since he signed w/ the Mets after their release?
   14. Blackburn singing in the dead of night Posted: January 21, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4041983)
What the heck happened to Kyle Drabek?

Seriously. As a Phils fan I was afraid I would be hitting the Brandy Vann every time I thought about the trade by now.
   15. Walt Davis Posted: January 21, 2012 at 06:19 PM (#4041995)
Calm down folks. :-)

It's not like 253/299/421 is exactly light years better than 229/281/442 ... or anything to get excited about. ZiPS makes D'Arnaud the better defender but it's not like he couldn't use more AAA time to work on the hitting.
   16. Jim Wisinski Posted: January 21, 2012 at 06:34 PM (#4042002)
Arencibia's debut was against the Rays so I keep getting confused when I see somebody saying something about him not being a very good hitter.
   17. Matthew E Posted: January 21, 2012 at 06:45 PM (#4042006)
I wouldn't be surprised if Arencibia improved his offensive game this year. Guy won the PCL MVP award; he should be able to do a bit better than this. Maybe not a lot. But some.
   18. DevinM Posted: January 21, 2012 at 06:48 PM (#4042010)
Did anyone not notice that Mathis' 3rd comparable is Rebecca Black
   19. Obo Posted: January 21, 2012 at 07:10 PM (#4042022)
Did anyone not notice that Mathis' 3rd comparable is Rebecca Black

See comment 8.
   20. puck Posted: January 21, 2012 at 07:29 PM (#4042028)
How the hell did that song go viral?
   21. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: January 21, 2012 at 08:01 PM (#4042045)
I like the Gose projection.
   22.  Hey Gurl Posted: January 21, 2012 at 09:12 PM (#4042080)
Blah. The Jays should have taken JA Happ
   23. Good cripple hitter Posted: January 21, 2012 at 11:10 PM (#4042131)
Though oddly enough with all the guys the Jays have talked about playing OF (Rasmus, Thames, Snider, Francisco even Kelly Johnson!) DH seems like the only spot open for E5.


I might be wrong, but I seem to recall talk last year that the Jays were thinking about putting Encarnacion at left and he was even getting some practice time there, but nothing ever came of it. If I had to guess, I'd say that he could play LF, but I wouldn't necessarily want him to. With the current roster I'd almost rather just sit him down, tell him he's DHing all the time except in case of emergencies so he could just focus on hitting the ball.

What the heck happened to Kyle Drabek?

I feel like a bad Jays fan for being more interested in Chris Woodward's defensive projections than Drabek's line. Although I have to say that I found it fun last season to see how long Drabek could last on the league leaders lists for walks and wilds pitches after he was demoted to Las Vegas. I think it was at least two, maybe three weeks before he dropped off the lists.

Morrow's IP look a little bit low for the number of starts he's projected to make.

I was going to say that it's nice to see Bautista's top comp go from Jack Voigt to Tom Brunansky to Ralph Kiner, but after checking his baseball reference page, I'd be rather upset if Bautista produced 2.7 more WAR and retired after 2013.
   24. Walt Davis Posted: January 21, 2012 at 11:13 PM (#4042134)
See comment 8.

Better yet, see comment 4
   25. Dan Posted: January 22, 2012 at 06:18 AM (#4042257)
Morrow's IP look a little bit low for the number of starts he's projected to make.


Seems about right for a guy with both a lot of K's and a lot of BBs.

Interesting that ZiPS likes Bautista's defense better at third base than in right field.
   26. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 22, 2012 at 09:25 AM (#4042285)
What the heck happened to Kyle Drabek? And Travis Snider? Were they not that good to begin with? I remember more than a few Royals fans being pissed they didn't get those two in return for Greinke.


Snider always struck out way too much, and eventually he got to a level where it caught up with him. And Drabek, for whatever reason, has never been all that good at missing bats - his record is probably a lot weaker than you remember it being, if you go back and check.
   27. formerly dp Posted: January 22, 2012 at 01:14 PM (#4042405)
And Drabek, for whatever reason, has never been all that good at missing bats - his record is probably a lot weaker than you remember it being, if you go back and check.

He's also got work ethic issues-- from what I've heard about him, he likes to party, and doesn't take his talent seriously enough.

I did not realize the state of Blue Jay pitching had gotten so bad. Any chance McGowan ever turns back into something useful?
   28. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 22, 2012 at 03:26 PM (#4042494)
Any chance McGowan ever turns back into something useful?


Well, he pitched a little last year. That's a good start.
   29. Matthew E Posted: January 22, 2012 at 04:06 PM (#4042533)
I did not realize the state of Blue Jay pitching had gotten so bad.


It's not exactly bad. They've still got a bunch of guys for whom it should never be a surprise if they throw a good game. All kinds of upside potential. But, yes, they could just as easily not work out too.
   30. formerly dp Posted: January 22, 2012 at 05:25 PM (#4042580)
It's not exactly bad. They've still got a bunch of guys for whom it should never be a surprise if they throw a good game. All kinds of upside potential. But, yes, they could just as easily not work out too.

Morrow didn't take the huge step forward a lot of people were hoping for, Cecil was mediocre, and Drabek tanked. I know the minors look good, but the talent in the majors didn't seem to take any steps forward last year. I think this team can be competitive, especially with all of the upside in the lineup, but I don't expect big things from the pitching until 2013.
   31. Jim Wisinski Posted: January 22, 2012 at 05:29 PM (#4042582)

I did not realize the state of Blue Jay pitching had gotten so bad.


Big deal, they'll still finish as league average anyway.
   32. Champions Table Posted: January 22, 2012 at 07:31 PM (#4042646)
I just wanted to voice my appreciation for the Arn Anderson shoutout.
   33. Greg K Posted: January 22, 2012 at 08:17 PM (#4042673)
And Drabek, for whatever reason, has never been all that good at missing bats - his record is probably a lot weaker than you remember it being, if you go back and check.

I second this. I never thought of Drabek as the centre-piece of the trade. In fact, he was he piece I was least interested in from the get go. (as it turns out Gose looks like the most promising of the Wallace/Taylor/Gose swaps as well...if only because he hasn't had the opportunity to be a gigantic disappointment yet). For me D'Arnaud was always the guy and Drabek was an interesting, if thoroughly unremarkable arm.
   34. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 22, 2012 at 09:59 PM (#4042727)
if only because he hasn't had the opportunity to be a gigantic disappointment yet


Trust in the K rate... he'll get there.
   35. Fancy Pants Handles lap changes with class Posted: January 23, 2012 at 09:20 AM (#4042952)
I did not realize the state of Blue Jay pitching had gotten so bad.

Big deal, they'll still finish as league average anyway.


I was going to say. Toronto's pitching always looks like a pile of dung coming into the season, and somehow they always seem to find lightning in a bottle.
   36. Rants Mulliniks Posted: January 23, 2012 at 09:34 AM (#4042957)
It's probably me being a negative nervous nelly nincimpoop, but I will, with trembling hand, take the under on Bautista. I have no idea why, but I fear the magic may be ending.


I'll second that, and I don't know why either.

Not much to get excited about in Jays land.
   37. Matthew E Posted: January 23, 2012 at 10:36 AM (#4043003)
For some reason I have a hunch that this is going to be an up year for the Jays. By which I mean I wouldn't be surprised if they got around 85 wins or so and finished 3rd in the East.
   38. formerly dp Posted: January 23, 2012 at 10:54 AM (#4043024)
Not much to get excited about in Jays land.

There's Lawrie and Bautista at the core, and a really strong supporting cast-- Escobar, Johnson, Rasmus, and some other still-young hitters who could still develop. Not sure what more you can want out of a team. Lawrie, in particular, should be worth the price of admission. Add in a strong/deep farm and you've got a team that's at least interesting.
   39.  Hey Gurl Posted: January 24, 2012 at 08:19 PM (#4044950)

I was going to say. Toronto's pitching always looks like a pile of dung coming into the season, and somehow they always seem to find lightning in a bottle.


I wouldn't exactly call it lightning in a bottle. The Jays seem to always find random pitchers than will give them 180 innings with a 96 ERA+ or something. It's helpful, but not so much lightning in a bottle as much as, I dunno, a lit match.
   40. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 25, 2012 at 01:50 AM (#4045222)
I suppose Cordero signed too late to be included here
   41. Walt Davis Posted: January 26, 2012 at 02:32 PM (#4046257)
I suppose Cordero signed too late to be included here

He's in the Reds ZiPS -- 110 ERA+. That will be lower in the AL.
   42. Derb Posted: January 31, 2012 at 05:42 PM (#4050644)
Any chance at a Wil Ledezma projection?

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