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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, January 26, 2012

2012 ZiPS Projections - Washington Nationals

If the Nationals go into the season as the likely 4th-best team in the division, it's not from lack of trying - the team's been in on every major free agent this winter, making serious offers, and even being the favorite destination for Prince Fielder for about a month.

The team's really just missing one big middle of the order bat to be in a good position to mix it up with the rest of the division and compete well for a Wild Card. They're not so far away that it can't happen in 2012 with some good fortune, such as health leading to big inning totals for Strasburg and Zimmermann, but there are just a few better candidates at this point. Even if they're missing that additional big hitter, they do have pretty solid depth and some good role players.

Don't be alarmed by the Bryce Harper projection -- ZiPS has him with an OPS+ in the 130s in a few years. He's extremely young and didn't kill AA pitchers in his month there, so throwing him in the mix at the start of the season would likely be way too soon.

Next Up: Cleveland Indians

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Batting Projections

Player            B    PO  Age     BA  OBP  SLG   G  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  CS OPS+
Ryan Zimmerman    R    3B   27   .283 .354 .476 134 515  78 146  29   2  22  78  57  97   3   1  123
Michael Morse     R    1B   30   .273 .331 .475 139 465  62 127  26   1  22  80  33 107   1   2  116
Wilson Ramos      R    C    24   .266 .338 .453 119 406  51 108  23   1  17  55  43  83   0   2  112
Jayson Werth      R    RF   33   .245 .342 .418 141 507  72 124  26   1  20  62  70 141  15   3  105
Bryce Harper      L    RF   19   .238 .317 .405 132 484  52 115  24   3  17  60  55 134  22   9   94
Adam LaRoche      L    1B   32   .236 .313 .415  99 364  46  86  21   1  14  58  41 105   1   1   95
Stephen LombardozzB    2B   23   .265 .316 .379 156 614  83 163  30  11   6  50  41  91  19   9   88
Michael Aubrey    L    LF   30   .249 .300 .413 106 361  39  90  21   1  12  46  25  50   1   1   91
Mike Cameron      R    CF   39   .235 .301 .412  64 204  26  48  12   0   8  23  19  50   0   0   91
Chris Marrero     R    1B   23   .262 .319 .380 156 592  61 155  31   0  13  72  48 128   2   3   89
Danny Espinosa    B    2B   25   .229 .309 .400 156 582  79 133  28   6  20  71  56 177  17   9   91
Ian Desmond       R    SS   26   .256 .304 .378 153 555  65 142  28   5  10  57  36 129  19   7   84
Jarrett Hoffpauir R    2B   29   .252 .311 .383 113 405  45 102  26   3   7  42  34  44   3   2   87
Roger Bernadina   L    CF   28   .240 .302 .374 118 404  54  97  18   3  10  30  33  98  21   6   82
Jason Michaels    R    LF   36   .238 .290 .390  95 172  20  41  12   1   4  20  11  36   1   0   82
Xavier Paul       L    RF   27   .249 .295 .375 109 293  38  73  14   4   5  31  19  70  12   5   81
Rick Ankiel       L    CF   32   .231 .293 .386 114 355  44  82  20   1  11  36  30  99   6   2   82
Tug Hulett        L    3B   29   .235 .305 .365 113 392  47  92  24   3   7  43  39  84   6   5   81
Andres Blanco     B    SS   28   .259 .300 .351  75 205  20  53  11   1   2  15  11  28   2   2   76
Brett Carroll     R    CF   29   .227 .289 .369 116 366  44  83  18   2  10  39  25  90   5   3   77
Matt Stairs       L    1B   44   .211 .300 .338  59  71   9  15   3   0   2   7   9  25   1   0   73
Carlos Rivero     R    3B   24   .243 .285 .356 148 564  57 137  30   2  10  60  33 127   3   3   73
Tyler Moore       R    1B   25   .220 .263 .394 139 540  52 119  31   3  19  79  29 172   1   1   75
Manny Mayorson    R    2B   29   .259 .295 .323 111 402  47 104  18   1   2  36  20  31  13   5   68
Corey Brown       L    CF   26   .211 .281 .364 130 459  55  97  19   6  13  48  41 164   8   4   73
Eury Perez        R    CF   22   .260 .293 .315 156 549  73 143  14   5   2  48  23  99  48  21   65
Jhonatan Solano   R    C    26   .244 .284 .341  98 328  31  80  17   0   5  37  17  48   1   1   69
Jesus Flores      R    C    27   .226 .266 .366  73 243  25  55  14   1   6  31  12  71   0   0   70
Alex Cora         L    3B   36   .243 .302 .308  78 185  18  45   8   2   0  13  13  21   3   1   66
Seth Bynum        R    SS   31   .212 .262 .354 112 401  41  85  17   2  12  48  26 138   7   2   65
Ivan Rodriguez    R    C    40   .237 .279 .329  66 219  20  52  11   0   3  30  12  42   1   1   64
Carlos Maldonado  R    C    33   .215 .289 .311  44 135  11  29   7   0   2  16  14  36   0   0   63
Mark DeRosa       R    3B   37   .244 .300 .277  46 119  13  29   4   0   0  13   8  23   1   1   58

Defensive Projections

Player                 CTHr    1B      2B      3B      SS      LF      CF      RF
Ryan Zimmerman                                VG/86
Michael Morse                FR/104                           FR/92
Wilson Ramos             VG
Jayson Werth                                                 AV/101  FR/106  AV/101
Bryce Harper                                                 AV/125  FR/136  AV/115
Adam LaRoche                  AV/72
Stephen Lombardozzi                   AV/70  AV/118   FR/95
Michael Aubrey                FR/84                           FR/90          FR/118
Mike Cameron                                                 AV/117   AV/82  AV/104
Chris Marrero                AV/150
Danny Espinosa                        VG/85          AV/107
Ian Desmond                          AV/104          AV/130
Jarrett Hoffpauir                    AV/133  AV/103  FR/107  AV/112
Roger Bernadina                                               VG/85   AV/78  AV/106
Jason Michaels                                                AV/79   PO/91   AV/92
Xavier Paul                                                   AV/89  FR/143  AV/112
Rick Ankiel                                                   AV/92  FR/118  FR/106
Tug Hulett                   VG/118   AV/76  FR/102   PO/96  AV/108           AV/94
Andres Blanco                         FR/94  AV/107  AV/107
Brett Carroll                AV/112                           AV/86  FR/123   AV/86
Matt Stairs                  FR/115                           PO/96           PO/96
Carlos Rivero                                FR/143  FR/120
Tyler Moore                            124/
Manny Mayorson               AV/107  AV/102  VG/103  AV/111
Corey Brown                                                   VG/93  AV/120  AV/120
Eury Perez                                                   VG/114  AV/128   AV/94
Jhonatan Solano          AV          PO/118
Jesus Flores             AV
Alex Cora                    AV/120  AV/100   FR/96   FR/90
Seth Bynum                           AV/118   AV/95  FR/114
Ivan Rodriguez           VG
Carlos Maldonado         AV
Mark DeRosa                  FR/115  FR/113   FR/78           AV/85          AV/102

Pitching Projections - Starters

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Stephen Strasburg R      23     2.85     6    3   14   14    75.7   64   24    5   23   78   139
Gio Gonzalez      L      26     3.55    14   10   33   32   195.3  173   77   18   83  190   112
Jordan Zimmermann R      26     3.65     7    5   22   22   120.7  116   49   12   29  100   109
Tom Gorzelanny    L      29     4.09     7    7   30   19   116.7  113   53   12   47  101    97
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  96
John Lannan       L      27     4.42    10   11   30   30   175.0  192   86   17   65   93    90
Ross Detwiler     L      26     4.44     7    8   26   23   121.7  136   60   10   45   76    89
Livan Hernandez   R      37     4.44     8    9   25   25   152.0  167   75   14   47   82    89
Chien-Ming Wang   R      32     4.68     4    5   15   14    75.0   84   39    9   20   39    85
Erik Arnesen      R      28     4.82     7    9   29   21   130.7  152   70   14   37   81    82
Craig Stammen     R      28     4.93     6    9   29   22   135.0  155   74   17   39   86    80
Yunesky Maya      R      30     4.97     5    7   24   20   116.0  134   64   14   32   70    80
Oliver Perez      L      30     6.10     2    5   17   14    69.3   80   47   12   42   49    65

Pitching Statistics - Relievers

Player            T     Age      ERA     W    L    G   GS     IP     H   ER   HR   BB    K  ERA+
Tyler Clippard    R      27     2.85     7    3   72    0    88.3   64   28    9   35  107   139
Drew Storen       R      24     3.14     5    3   70    0    71.7   61   25    6   22   70   126
Henry Rodriguez   R      25     3.53     3    2   57    0    63.7   52   25    4   40   73   112
LEAGUE AVERAGE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 108
Brad Lidge        R      35     3.69     1    1   37    0    31.7   29   13    3   15   31   107
Sean Burnett      L      29     3.79     5    4   70    0    57.0   53   24    5   22   44   105
Ryan Perry        R      25     3.82     3    2   60    0    70.7   66   30    6   31   58   104
Todd Coffey       R      31     3.88     3    3   68    0    62.7   60   27    6   20   50   102
Doug Slaten       L      32     3.99     2    2   44    2    38.3   39   17    4   13   30    99
Josh Wilkie       R      27     4.04     5    4   53    0    64.7   66   29    5   23   49    98
Jeff Fulchino     R      32     4.04     3    3   53    0    55.7   53   25    6   23   49    98
Ryan Mattheus     R      28     4.09     2    2   34    0    33.0   31   15    3   16   24    97
Rafael Martin     R      28     4.41     4    4   42    0    49.0   48   24    5   22   39    90
Waldis Joaquin    R      25     4.68     3    3   42    2    57.7   61   30    5   31   37    85
Cole Kimball      R      26     4.70     3    3   40    0    46.0   43   24    5   33   41    85
Atahualpa SeverinoL      27     4.91     3    4   46    0    51.3   54   28    6   29   39    81

Extrapolated Career Statistics

Player                 BA   OBP   SLG     G    AB     R     H    2B    3B    HR   RBI    BB    SO    SB  OPS+
Ivan Rodriguez       .295  .332  .461  2609  9811  1374  2896   583    51   314  1362   525  1516   128   105
Ryan Zimmerman       .278  .343  .453  2199  8550  1205  2373   493    35   313  1212   859  1470    56   113
Mike Cameron         .248  .335  .441  2103  7313  1122  1810   411    59   295  1020   907  2010   297   104
Ian Desmond          .254  .302  .378  1724  6270   714  1594   326    50   117   645   398  1333   184    83
Danny Espinosa       .229  .311  .401  1783  6629   885  1519   324    57   233   800   648  1819   137    92
Wilson Ramos         .259  .331  .437  1687  5765   690  1493   316    19   225   747   602  1089     0   107
Jayson Werth         .255  .347  .438  1544  5352   798  1364   278    21   220   727   707  1434   150   109
Adam LaRoche         .259  .329  .458  1361  4807   637  1246   316    13   205   767   506  1208     9   106
Michael Morse        .270  .326  .456  1029  3498   429   943   192     7   149   552   230   719     9   110
Rick Ankiel          .239  .301  .404   886  2719   359   651   145    10    94   323   227   709    36    87

Player                  W    L    S     ERA    G   GS       IP    H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA+
Livan Hernandez       197  206    0    4.44  550  549     3573 3955 1762  394 1194 2166     94
Gio Gonzalez          189  141    0    3.68  439  427     2589 2294 1060  265 1157 2558    108
John Lannan           119  140    0    4.30  377  376     2182 2340 1041  226  830 1172     94
Chien-Ming Wang        74   49    1    4.36  180  172     1023 1097  496   86  291  480     98

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

Player            PO      EX   VG   AV   FR   PO             COMP 1             COMP 2             COMP 3
Ryan Zimmerman    3B     44%  32%  15%   7%   2%       Brook Jacoby       Ken McMullen     Garrett Atkins
Michael Morse     1B     12%  30%  22%  24%  12%      Mike Marshall        Xavier Nady         Bob Oliver
Wilson Ramos      C      40%  36%  15%   7%   2%       Geovany Soto      Jerry Willard         Todd Zeile
Jayson Werth      RF     15%  26%  20%  21%  19%     Bernard Gilkey         Eric Davis        Woodie Held
Bryce Harper      RF      6%  12%  12%  17%  52%       Jayson Werth    Michael Cuddyer       Justin Upton
Adam LaRoche      1B      2%   6%  10%  30%  53%         Tony Clark        Lee Stevens        Damon Minor
Stephen Lombardozz2B      7%  10%  16%  27%  41%      William Suero         Luis Rivas     Nelson Liriano
Michael Aubrey    LF      1%   4%   7%  16%  72%         Tim Norrid        Daryle Ward       Andy Barkett
Mike Cameron      CF      9%   9%  17%  25%  39%       Brian Jordan      Willie Horton       Garry Maddox
Chris Marrero     1B      0%   2%   5%  21%  72% Luis de los Santos        Juan Tejeda       Billy Butler
Danny Espinosa    2B     10%  11%  17%  26%  36%      Brooks Conrad     Sean Rodriguez   Dallas McPherson
Ian Desmond       SS      7%  15%  30%  28%  20%      Royce Clayton     Robby Thompson     Rafael Ramirez
Jarrett Hoffpauir 2B      5%   7%  13%  26%  50%           Stu Cole  Steve Lombardozzi     Jorge Velandia
Roger Bernadina   CF      5%   9%  21%  33%  32%      Scott Lusader    Kevin Koslofski       Dan Ortmeier
Jason Michaels    LF      1%   2%   4%   9%  85%       Brian Jordan      Willie Horton         Mark Smith
Xavier Paul       RF      1%   2%   4%  10%  83%       Steve Carter       Alexis Gomez      Cory Sullivan
Rick Ankiel       CF      1%   3%  13%  30%  52%        Orsino Hill   Darrell Whitmore       Brian Lesher
Tug Hulett        3B      0%   2%   5%  16%  76%         Alan Lewis      Tony Schrager     Edgar Gonzalez
Andres Blanco     SS      2%   4%  14%  28%  52%      Dean DeCillis         Bruce Yard    Keith Kessinger
Brett Carroll     CF      0%   2%   7%  21%  71%       John Giudice         Jeff Barry        Troy Hughes
Matt Stairs       1B      1%   2%   3%   8%  87%         Tom Wilson   Harmon Killebrew         Jeff Manto
Carlos Rivero     3B      0%   1%   3%   9%  88%      Travis Hanson     Steve BuecheleChristopher Valaika
Tyler Moore       1B      0%   0%   1%   6%  92%    Troy Farnsworth       Ryan Mulhern       Chris Kirgan
Manny Mayorson    2B      0%   0%   2%   7%  90%     Benjamin Perez       Chris Wimmer      John McDonald
Corey Brown       CF      1%   1%   4%  16%  78%        Brad SnyderJeffrey Fortenberry       Jon VanEvery
Eury Perez        CF      0%   1%   5%  13%  81%      Willy Taveras     Leo Sutherland      Luis Mercedes
Jhonatan Solano   C       1%   3%   5%  18%  73%    Jeff Winchester        Drew Butera   Brandon Marsters
Jesus Flores      C       1%   2%   6%  20%  71%        Chris Curry       Alvin Colina       Tommy Duenas
Alex Cora         3B      0%   1%   2%   6%  90%      Mark Belanger           Dan Rohn         Larry Bowa
Seth Bynum        SS      1%   3%   6%  14%  77%      Dave Matranga         Nick Green  Trace Coquillette
Ivan Rodriguez    C       1%   2%   3%  11%  84%        Raul Chavez        Pat Borders        Joe Girardi
Carlos Maldonado  C       0%   1%   3%   9%  87%       Chad Moeller  George Mitterwald       Steve Yeager
Mark DeRosa       3B      0%   0%   0%   1%  99%      Jim Davenport       Billy Jurges      Charlie Hayes

Player            PO      TOP   MID     BOT              Comp1              Comp2              Comp3
Tyler Clippard    RP      73%    22%     5%         Eric Plunk    Armando Benitez    Ricky Bottalico
Stephen Strasburg SP      85%    10%     5%      Roger Clemens       Josh Beckett        Matt Morris
Drew Storen       RP      57%    38%     5%      Antonio Osuna       Heath Haynes   Scott Strickland
Henry Rodriguez   RP      33%    49%    18%       Mark Littell       Steve Sharts       Ryan Bukvich
Gio Gonzalez      SP      57%    38%     5%      Tony Saunders       Juan Pizarro        Shawn Estes
Jordan Zimmermann SP      51%    43%     6%  Larry Christenson        Danny Haren     Frank Castillo
Brad Lidge        RP      33%    33%    34%         Roy Thomas       Toby Borland        Rudy Seanez
Sean Burnett      RP      26%    47%    26%  Brian Shackelford           Ed Glynn       Tim Hamulack
Ryan Perry        RP      16%    52%    32%          Lee Smith     Alejandro Pena       Brian Bowles
Todd Coffey       RP      23%    52%    25%    Hector Carrasco   Brian Falkenborg        Cory Bailey
Doug Slaten       RP      20%    37%    42%       Tommy Phelps    Vic Darensbourg         Mike Munoz
Josh Wilkie       RP      13%    54%    33%  Hipolito Pichardo       Juan Padilla      Gary Majewski
Jeff Fulchino     RP      13%    42%    45%      Doug Bochtler    Ricky Bottalico     Brian Williams
Tom Gorzelanny    SP      23%    53%    23%      Mickey Mahler       Pete Falcone          Al Leiter
Ryan Mattheus     RP      17%    38%    45%     Marc Pisciotta    Franklyn German        Gary Wagner
Rafael Martin     RP      10%    34%    56%      Gerry Hannahs    Gabriel Dehoyos    David Holdridge
John Lannan       SP       8%    56%    36%     Jimmy Anderson         Jeff Mutis         Al Jackson
Ross Detwiler     SP       7%    51%    42%       Jake Chapman         Tom McGraw         Jeff Mutis
Livan Hernandez   SP       9%    39%    52%         Sid Hudson       Steve Sparks    Jack Billingham
Chien-Ming Wang   SP      11%    32%    57%       Travis Smith        Dave Eiland      Brian Moehler
Waldis Joaquin    RP       5%    24%    72%      Joe Davenport     Marc Pisciotta         Joel Moore
Cole Kimball      RP       7%    30%    64%        Brad Voyles         Josh Banks   Santiago Casilla
Erik Arnesen      SP       3%    34%    64%     Dave Borkowski       Mike Thurman      Tim Harikkala
Atahualpa SeverinoRP       3%    18%    80%        Kevin Tolar      Mike Johnston      Jason Jimenez
Craig Stammen     SP       2%    25%    74%      Tim Harikkala     Dave Borkowski        Chris Baker
Yunesky Maya      SP       3%    29%    68%     Dave Borkowski        Mike Harkey      Joey Hamilton
Oliver Perez      SP       0%     3%    97%          Dan Smith         Ed Yarnall     Jimmy Williams

Player              .300 BA  .375 OBP  .500 SLG   45+ 2B  10+ 3B   30+ HR  140 OPS+  30+ SB
Ryan Zimmerman          25%      22%      29%       2%       1%      12%      17%       0%
Michael Morse           15%       6%      30%       0%       0%      13%      10%       0%
Wilson Ramos            10%      10%      15%       0%       1%       2%       6%       0%
Jayson Werth             2%      12%       6%       1%       0%       8%       4%       5%
Bryce Harper             1%       4%       5%       0%       2%       5%       3%      22%
Adam LaRoche             1%       2%       4%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Stephen Lombardozz       6%       1%       1%       7%      61%       1%       0%      12%
Michael Aubrey           2%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Mike Cameron             3%       3%       7%       0%       0%       0%       2%       0%
Chris Marrero            3%       1%       0%       8%       0%       1%       0%       0%
Danny Espinosa           0%       0%       2%       2%      16%       9%       1%       8%
Ian Desmond              3%       1%       2%       2%       8%       1%       0%       9%
Jarrett Hoffpauir        3%       1%       1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Roger Bernadina          1%       1%       0%       0%       2%       0%       0%      10%
Jason Michaels           4%       1%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Xavier Paul              4%       1%       1%       0%       2%       0%       0%       0%
Rick Ankiel              0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Tug Hulett               0%       1%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Andres Blanco           10%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Brett Carroll            0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Matt Stairs              4%       7%       2%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%
Carlos Rivero            0%       0%       0%       2%       1%       0%       0%       0%
Tyler Moore              0%       0%       1%       3%       3%       3%       0%       0%
Manny Mayorson           4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       3%
Corey Brown              0%       0%       0%       0%      11%       0%       0%       0%
Eury Perez               5%       0%       0%       0%       8%       0%       0%      96%
Jhonatan Solano          2%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Jesus Flores             1%       0%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Alex Cora                6%       3%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Seth Bynum               0%       0%       0%       0%       1%       0%       0%       1%
Ivan Rodriguez           4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Carlos Maldonado         1%       1%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%
Mark DeRosa              8%       4%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%       0%

Player               ERA+>130   ERA+>100     K/9 >8    BB/9 <2    HR/9 <1
Tyler Clippard            71%        94%        98%         1%        64%
Stephen Strasburg         65%        92%        84%        15%        89%
Drew Storen               49%        90%        74%        10%        82%
Henry Rodriguez           26%        76%        95%         0%        90%
Gio Gonzalez              19%        81%        77%         0%        81%
Jordan Zimmermann         18%        75%        24%        41%        66%
Brad Lidge                23%        66%        70%         2%        81%
Sean Burnett              20%        67%        12%         3%        72%
Ryan Perry                16%        61%        22%         0%        84%
Todd Coffey               17%        61%        17%        10%        75%
Doug Slaten               20%        48%        16%        17%        68%
Josh Wilkie               13%        53%         8%         4%        85%
Jeff Fulchino              9%        47%        37%         1%        63%
Tom Gorzelanny             5%        46%        37%         1%        65%
Ryan Mattheus             17%        45%        12%         1%        79%
Rafael Martin              7%        36%        19%         1%        62%
John Lannan                1%        25%         0%         1%        76%
Ross Detwiler              1%        25%         0%         1%        92%
Livan Hernandez            2%        21%         1%        10%        76%
Chien-Ming Wang            3%        22%         1%        32%        49%
Waldis Joaquin             3%        22%         2%         0%        73%
Cole Kimball               4%        29%        45%         0%        68%
Erik Arnesen               0%        12%         0%        12%        63%
Atahualpa Severino         2%        15%        11%         0%        66%
Craig Stammen              0%         8%         0%        11%        38%
Yunesky Maya               0%         9%         0%        18%        50%
Oliver Perez               0%         1%         3%         0%        16%

All figures in % based on projection playing time 

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012.  
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.19 ERA and the NL having a 3.96 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected.  More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the 
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2008-2011.  Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.
2012 Projections Archive
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Dan Szymborski Posted: January 26, 2012 at 05:04 PM | 42 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Rays&Sox; Posted: January 26, 2012 at 05:41 PM (#4046500)
Interesting top comp on Harper as Werth really wasn't a regular until he was 25.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: January 26, 2012 at 05:44 PM (#4046504)
ZiPS has finally hit one out of the park! Harper's top comp is Jayson Werth. Brilliant!

But why does ZiPS hate puppies and Ryan Zimmerman?

And I chuckle that Gorzelanny projects better than anybody in the Cubs rotation not named Garza (who may not be in the Cubs rotation for long).
   3. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 26, 2012 at 05:48 PM (#4046507)
Bryce Harper doesn't remind me of any of his comps - especially not Justin Upton.

-- MWE
   4. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: January 26, 2012 at 05:50 PM (#4046513)
Oliver Perez and Mark DeRosa are pretty shitty.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: January 26, 2012 at 05:50 PM (#4046515)
Interesting top comp on Harper as Werth really wasn't a regular until he was 25.

Neither was Cuddyer and he wasn't full-time until 27. Werth I think had some injury issues that delayed him while Cuddyer had Tom Kelly and a non-good glove at third.

Also why did I think the Nats were non-horrible on offense?

And the quality of that Strasberg projection is phenomenal -- that's up there with Lee and Halladay, ahead of Lincecum and Felix.

   6. BourbonSamurai Is a Lazy Nogoodnik Posted: January 26, 2012 at 05:57 PM (#4046519)
I'll take that from Harper at age 19.

Man, I hope Gio stays healthy, othwerise that was a lot to give up.
   7. cardsfanboy Posted: January 26, 2012 at 05:59 PM (#4046524)
And the quality of that Strasberg projection is phenomenal -- that's up there with Lee and Halladay, ahead of Lincecum and Felix.


I'll take the under on that Strasburg projection. Looking at those projections and I like the way the Nationals are building a team, two of their three best hitters are at the positions that it's harder to get good hitters(Zimmerman, Ramos) the pitching staff is rounding out to be a probable league average rotation, they may not be able to compete with the Phils or Braves yet, but no reason to think that they won't break .500 this year. (heck just realized they were 80-81-78-83pyth-- last year--with probably an improved team this year)
   8. WillYoung Posted: January 26, 2012 at 06:24 PM (#4046538)
Neither was Cuddyer and he wasn't full-time until 27. Werth I think had some injury issues that delayed him while Cuddyer had Tom Kelly and a non-good glove at third.


Believe it or not, but Kelly's been gone for so long that Gardy is the manager who jerked Cuddyer around for about four seasons.
   9. JPWF1313 Posted: January 26, 2012 at 07:13 PM (#4046571)
Interesting top comp on Harper as Werth really wasn't a regular until he was 25.


Back in the day both Werth and Cuddyer were highly regarded prospects (not as highly regarded as Harper of course)
Cuddyer made BA's top 100 5 times, including 2 times in the top 20
Werth was not quite as highly regarded, but made BA's top 100 4 times

Werth has 20.7 WAR in 925 games, 2011 aside, when healthy he's been a damn fine player, Cuddyer can hit a bit, but really not enough considering his glove (or lack thereof)
But of course the Nationals really do not want to see Harper take either the Cuddyer or Werth type career paths, methinks it may do the Nationals little good if he's an elite player, but not until he past 25-27
   10. davidalan51 Posted: January 26, 2012 at 08:09 PM (#4046623)
What's with the projection of Strasburg for only 75.7 innings? What do you know that we don't know?

Also, I'm willing to wager that the projections on Zimmerman, Morse, and Harper are way too pessimistic. ZiPS tends to underestimate the ability of players to improve their performance with improved health and continued development. Like many projection systems, ZiPS makes players drag any statistics associated with their past performance through several years of averaging. Advanced forecasting models should differentiate between performance when conditions are good (healthy, finally figured it out) and performance when conditions are bad (nagging injuries, still learning the ropes).
   11. John DiFool2 Posted: January 26, 2012 at 08:25 PM (#4046632)
I'll take the under on that Strasburg projection.


On the rates or the innings?
   12. cardsfanboy Posted: January 26, 2012 at 08:46 PM (#4046659)
On the rates or the innings?


The rates(era+). The innings is way too low of course.
   13. puck Posted: January 26, 2012 at 09:09 PM (#4046684)
What are the comps based on? It would seem that Harper's age would make him different from all but a handful of players.
   14. SG Posted: January 26, 2012 at 09:47 PM (#4046724)
Advanced forecasting models should differentiate between performance when conditions are good (healthy, finally figured it out) and performance when conditions are bad (nagging injuries, still learning the ropes).


I think I speak for everyone when we say we look forward to you releasing your advanced forecasts.
   15. WhoWantsTeixeiraDessert Posted: January 26, 2012 at 10:01 PM (#4046738)
It never makes sense, but Lannan's going to be better than that projection. He's pretty much a half run better than he ought to be, and 750 innings of it make me believe it. He gets a lot out of what little he has out there. I think Rotochamp has him about right.
   16. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: January 26, 2012 at 10:02 PM (#4046739)
Bryce Harper doesn't remind me of any of his comps - especially not Justin Upton.


Interesting, Mike, why not? Who does he remind you of? Precocious power/speed and a league-average bat by the time he's 20 sounds a lot like Justin Upton, at least more than any other player I can think of. Or is Bryce that special he's in a class of his own?

EDIT: Or is Bryce not going to steal 20+ bases? What kind of speed does he have, anyway?
   17. JJ1986 Posted: January 26, 2012 at 10:06 PM (#4046747)
I like Darryl Strawberry as a comp, but that's reaching really far back.
   18. Frisco Cali Posted: January 26, 2012 at 10:23 PM (#4046773)
This sounds really stupid, but Harper reminds me of Albert Belle. I'm not exactly sure why - something about the pure dominance at the plate.
   19. Famous Original Joe C Posted: January 26, 2012 at 11:16 PM (#4046843)
Advanced forecasting models should differentiate between performance when conditions are good (healthy, finally figured it out) and performance when conditions are bad (nagging injuries, still learning the ropes).

So...Harper's .700ish OPS in AA last year indicates he's figured it out?
   20. TerpNats Posted: January 26, 2012 at 11:45 PM (#4046871)
Most Nationals fans realize that unless the rest of the NL East falls back to the pack, Washington doesn't quite have enough yet to be a legit playoff contender, especially since Strasburg will be on an innings restriction, just as Zimmermann was in 2011. The good news is that come 2013, Harper, Rendon or both could blossom into the elite hitter the Nats are looking for (at far less of a price than Fielder). As for this year, finish a few games over .500, play a bit of a spoiler down the stretch and keep building the arsenal for the breakthrough in '13.
   21. Boxkutter Posted: January 27, 2012 at 03:00 AM (#4046971)
I think the Upton comp for Harper is a pretty good one. Upton was in the majors at age 19 and has shown plus power. He steals 20 or so bags a year. Harper had a tough transition in AA when it comes to his power... so instead he started to steal bases. I love to see stolen bases from a player who doesn't have plus speed. To me it shows baseball skills and knowledge. Bagwell was never fast, but he knew the game well enough to get over 200 career SBs. Including double digits when he was in his 30s.
   22. davidalan51 Posted: January 27, 2012 at 06:56 AM (#4046991)
So...Harper's .700ish OPS in AA last year indicates he's figured it out?


Very small sample size at AA (learning the ropes) getting way too much weight in this projection. Time will tell...
   23. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: January 27, 2012 at 07:23 AM (#4046995)
Most Nationals fans realize that unless the rest of the NL East falls back to the pack, Washington doesn't quite have enough yet to be a legit playoff contender, especially since Strasburg will be on an innings restriction, just as Zimmermann was in 2011. The good news is that come 2013, Harper, Rendon or both could blossom into the elite hitter the Nats are looking for (at far less of a price than Fielder). As for this year, finish a few games over .500, play a bit of a spoiler down the stretch and keep building the arsenal for the breakthrough in '13.

Isn't this kinda what Rays fans thought in 2008? A Nationals division title wouldn't completely shock me, and a Wild Card seems well within their reach. None of the other 3 good teams in the NL East is "great". For that matter no team in the NL strikes me as "great".
   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 27, 2012 at 09:35 AM (#4047032)
Very small sample size at AA (learning the ropes) getting way too much weight in this projection. Time will tell...

No one is saying he won't be a good major league hitter eventually, just not at 19.

Only 10 players in history have put up a 100 OPS+ or better at age 19 or younger (<250 PA). Only two of those Griffey (108), Renteria (103), since 1965. Even ARod scuffled at 19.

A 94 OPS+ projection is awesome for a 19 y.o.
   25. Der-K, the bloodied charmer Posted: January 27, 2012 at 10:12 AM (#4047050)
Exactly, snapper.
I think Harper would be a little better than the projection this year, but you will never go broke taking the under on what prospects will contribute the next year.
   26. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: January 27, 2012 at 10:17 AM (#4047053)
I like the way the Nationals are building a team, two of their three best hitters are at the positions that it's harder to get good hitters(Zimmerman, Ramos) the pitching staff is rounding out to be a probable league average rotation, they may not be able to compete with the Phils or Braves yet, but no reason to think that they won't break .500 this year. (heck just realized they were 80-81-78-83pyth-- last year--with probably an improved team this year)


Plus, they've shown willingness to spend money and be aggressive in trades. I could see them making a play for Cabrera if the Tigers decide they've got too many 1B/DH types in 2013.

Have the Nats announced their plans for Harper-will he have a shot at making the big club this year? I had the impression they were targeting 2013.

   27. Joey B. is being stalked by a (Gonfa) loon Posted: January 27, 2012 at 10:26 AM (#4047061)
76 innings for Strasburg? Looks to me like more proof of how shitty these computer simulations are.
   28. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 27, 2012 at 10:28 AM (#4047065)
76 innings for Strasburg? Looks to me like more proof of how shitty these computer simulations are.

It's not a simulation. It's a simple extrapolation of the last 3-4 years. Read the PT disclaimer.
   29. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 27, 2012 at 10:32 AM (#4047070)
It's not a simulation. It's a simple extrapolation of the last 3-4 years. Read the PT disclaimer.


Silly man - Joey doesn't know how to read!
   30. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 27, 2012 at 11:27 AM (#4047152)
Joey is burying the lede here. The Nationals are going to have 254 starts from their pitchers this year? Straightforwardly ludicrous! Plus the 1300 at-bats from catchers. Wow! Silly eggheads.
   31. Walt Davis Posted: January 27, 2012 at 01:26 PM (#4047348)
Y'all know that 75 innings would be Strasburg's career high right? :-)

And with just 44 innings thrown last year (majors and minors) the Nats would be well-advised to avoid The Verducci Effect!!!!!
   32. JustDan Posted: January 27, 2012 at 03:02 PM (#4047504)
I'm really depressed about Zimmerman's comps. I assume that its probably because he had a short and down year last year.
   33. Joey B. is being stalked by a (Gonfa) loon Posted: January 27, 2012 at 04:02 PM (#4047571)
By the way, Oliver Perez is no longer with the Nationals. The Mariners signed him about a week ago.
   34. zack Posted: January 27, 2012 at 04:05 PM (#4047572)
Looking at the lineup, I don't see a big bat as the missing piece. If I'm Rizzo (is he still the GM?), I look for a good, young CF or middle infielder to add to my "core". With that in place, they can futz around the margins and have a solid team for a long time. One of Espinosa and Desmond is fine, and may be much better than that, but odds are against both. I believe in Morse as a hitter, so I wouldn't have wanted to blow my budget on Prince. Bernadina is garbage.

If you're aiming for a pennant in 2013

C - Ramos
1B - Morse
2B - Espinosa
3B - Zimmerman
SS - Desmond
RF - Werth
CF - Giant gaping black hole?
LF - Harper/Rendon?

   35. Willie Mayspedes Posted: January 27, 2012 at 05:13 PM (#4047643)
Corey Brown CF 1% 1% 4% 16% 78% Brad Snyder Jeffrey Fortenberry Jon VanEvery


Thyse guys hyve somethyng in commyn.
   36. JustDan Posted: January 27, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4047668)
The 2011 Nationals led the league with out of place 'y's with Jayson and Laynce.
   37. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 27, 2012 at 06:03 PM (#4047704)
I'm really depressed about Zimmerman's comps. I assume that its probably because he had a short and down year last year.


On the bright side, Ramos's projection is pretty good.
   38. Dangerous Dean Posted: January 30, 2012 at 10:46 AM (#4049114)
While I would love to see him play some more, I think that Matt Stairs has retired.
   39. Bitter Mouse Posted: January 30, 2012 at 11:28 AM (#4049168)
On the bright side, Ramos's projection is pretty good.


Sob.
   40. GuyM Posted: January 30, 2012 at 11:37 AM (#4049184)
I believe in Morse as a hitter

I hope you're right. But no other hitter in the past 10 years has put up a season as good as Morse's 2011 with a K:BB ratio anywhere close to as bad as his. I think you have to forecast quite a bit of regression for him, as pitchers give him fewer hittable pitches and force him to prove he can take a walk.
   41. Mike Emeigh Posted: January 30, 2012 at 03:45 PM (#4049609)
A Nationals division title wouldn't completely shock me, and a Wild Card seems well within their reach.


Not quite yet.

The difference between the 2012 Nationals and the 2008 Rays is defense, IMO. After shifting Upton to CF in 2007, the Rays invested in improving the rest of their up-the-middle defense in 2008, bringing in Bartlett to replace Brendan Harris, shifting Iwamura from 3B to 2B to make room for Longoria. The Nationals haven't really done that, and their D is nowhere near as good as Tampa's was after the offseason changes in 2007-2008.

-- MWE
   42. Jim Wisinski Posted: January 30, 2012 at 10:00 PM (#4050004)
The difference between the 2012 Nationals and the 2008 Rays is defense, IMO. After shifting Upton to CF in 2007, the Rays invested in improving the rest of their up-the-middle defense in 2008, bringing in Bartlett to replace Brendan Harris, shifting Iwamura from 3B to 2B to make room for Longoria. The Nationals haven't really done that, and their D is nowhere near as good as Tampa's was after the offseason changes in 2007-2008.


UZR has the Rays as a 110! run improvement on defense from 2007 to 2008. That probably seems ludicrous to anyone that didn't watch BJ Upton struggle to adapt to 2B, Brendan Harris and Josh Wilson play shortstop, and suffered the agony of Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes in CF. Oh, and Ty Wigginton played 575.2 innings at 2B and 3B.

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