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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

2008 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates

Not the prettiest projections in the world, but did anyone really expect otherwise?  It’s unfair to put any blame on the recently hired Frank Coonelly, but considering how competitive baseball is, this seems pretty much what one should expect from a team that places far more importance on maximizing their corporate welfare dole than maximizing anything positive that’s baseball-related.

A few unexpected question marks have arisen since the end of 2006 - while the Pirates have to be happy that Gorzelanny and Snell were solid pitchers, I don’t think they wanted to be answering question marks about the play of Jason Bay or Zach Duke right now.  Again, I really want to give Coonelly a chance, but it’s hard to give the organization as a whole the benefit of the doubt given the mismanagement from top to bottom, to injury management to coaching to a lack of a coherent plan centered on winning games of baseball.  Littlefield may be gone, but I don’t think that’ll be enough as long as the surname “Nutting” appears in the chain of command.


Name               P Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Jason Bay           lf 29 .265 .361 .478 154 565 92 150 32 2 28 89 81 149 9 0
Josh Phelps         1b 30 .292 .352 .483 115 373 35 109 22 2 15 57 30 89 2 1
AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.284 .359 .470—————————————————————
Adam LaRoche*        1b 28 .272 .348 .492 148 514 75 140 38 0 25 84 58 115 0 2
AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.282 .351 .448—————————————————————
Ryan Doumit#        c   27 .276 .344 .463 107 322 45 89 22 1 12 47 26 73 1 3
AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.282 .348 .450—————————————————————
AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.279 .345 .445—————————————————————
Steven Pearce         1b 25 .267 .324 .462 139 472 55 126 37 2 17 70 35 86 7 5
AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.276 .338 .442—————————————————————
AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.281 .339 .411—————————————————————
Freddy Sanchez       2b 30 .298 .340 .415 146 557 71 166 40 2 7 66 31 58 0 2
Xavier Nady         rf 29 .259 .319 .449 117 390 50 101 21 1 17 64 25 92 1 0
Nate McLouth*        cf 26 .259 .329 .415 138 378 67 98 22 2 11 34 35 74 17 3
Jose Bautista         3b 27 .249 .329 .415 146 523 71 130 32 2 17 62 57 113 4 3
Kevin Thompson       cf 28 .252 .335 .404 112 381 54 96 26 4 8 40 45 81 15 7
AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.279 .332 .404—————————————————————
AVERAGE C———————- c——.263 .322 .397—————————————————————
Adam Boeve           rf 28 .245 .326 .372 111 363 40 89 17 1 9 38 38 116 11 5
Chris Duffy*        cf 28 .267 .319 .372 92 333 49 89 15 4 4 27 20 65 14 5
Ronny Paulino         c   27 .263 .321 .366 128 437 48 115 21 0 8 46 36 80 1 1
Yurendell de Caster     1b 28 .251 .325 .376 114 378 33 95 21 1 8 39 37 92 5 6
Russ Johnson         3b 35 .241 .329 .359 88 290 29 70 17 1 5 25 37 42 1 2
Jose Castillo         2b 27 .259 .307 .382 119 398 44 103 20 1 9 48 25 74 2 2
Brian Bixler         ss 25 .257 .322 .345 128 455 58 117 22 3 4 35 33 125 14 5
Jack Wilson         ss 30 .261 .313 .361 141 518 62 135 24 2 8 42 36 54 2 4
Mike Ryan*          lf 30 .237 .284 .383 105 316 27 75 15 2 9 33 21 78 0 1
Chris Aguila         rf 29 .255 .297 .359 92 259 28 66 13 1 4 26 15 60 3 2
Brad Eldred         1b 27 .211 .264 .423 104 355 37 75 16 1 19 46 21 119 4 2
Andrew McCutchen       cf 21 .239 .293 .347 126 461 52 110 21 1 9 40 33 100 12 5
Shelby Ford#        2b 23 .236 .293 .340 82 297 38 70 18 2 3 29 16 69 5 2
Neil Walker#        3b 22 .229 .291 .343 122 420 48 96 22 1 8 39 35 77 5 3
Nyjer Morgan*        cf 27 .264 .319 .326 93 341 50 90 10 4 1 19 21 60 24 14
Luis Ordaz           2b 32 .259 .291 .333 70 228 20 59 12 1 1 18 10 37 3 2
Cesar Izturis#        ss 28 .252 .296 .318 95 330 31 83 17 1 1 21 19 24 4 4
Javier Guzman         ss 24 .250 .285 .334 107 380 39 95 16 2 4 28 16 56 7 5
Peter Bergeron*      cf 30 .234 .295 .322 94 329 36 77 15 1 4 23 27 67 3 5
Tripper Johnson       3b 26 .221 .283 .324 121 420 42 93 23 1 6 38 33 74 5 3
Carlos Maldonado       c   29 .217 .284 .307 80 244 18 53 10 0 4 23 21 60 0 0
Jason Bowers         2b 32 .210 .279 .290 89 290 24 61 15 1 2 22 24 47 6 3
David Parrish         c   29 .214 .270 .293 72 229 19 49 9 0 3 20 16 54 0 0
Jose Hernandez       3b 38 .212 .265 .306 89 255 20 54 9 0 5 27 16 75 0 1
Einar Diaz           c   35 .202 .251 .276 54 163 12 33 9 0 1 15   8 17 1 1

* - Bats Left
# = Switch-Hitter

Name           CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
Bay                       Fr    
Phelps         Pr   Fr            
LaRoche*          Vg            
Doumit#        Pr   Av           Pr
Pearce             Av           Av
Sanchez             Fr Vg Fr      
Nady             Av       Av Pr Av
McLouth*                  Vg Av Vg
Bautista               Pr   Fr Pr Pr
Thompson                   Av Fr Av
Boeve                     Fr   Fr
Duffy*                      Vg  
Paulino         Av                
de Caster           Vg Pr Fr   Fr   Fr
Johnson           Av Fr Av        
Castillo             Pr Av Pr      
Bixler               Av   Av      
Wilson                   Av      
Ryan*                    Av   Fr
Aguila                     Av Fr Fr
Eldred             Av           Pr
McCutchen                   Vg Vg  
Ford#              Av          
Walker#        Av       Fr        
Morgan*                    Vg Vg  
Ordaz               Vg   Fr      
Izturis#            Av Vg Av      
Guzman               Av   Fr Av Av  
Bergeron*                  Av Fr Av
Johnson               Fr        
Maldonado       Av                
Bowers               Av Av Fr      
Parrish         Av                
Hernandez           Vg Fr Fr Fr Av Av Av
Diaz           Av                

Player Spotlight - Adam LaRoche
Name           AVG   OBP   SLG   G AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K SB CS
Optimistic (15%)  .293 .374 .547 162 563 94 165 45 1 32 111 70 111 0 1
Mean         .272 .348 .492 148 514 75 140 38 0 25 84 58 115 0 2  
Pessimistic (15%) .251 .319 .440 127 439 55 110 29 0 18 59 44 108 0 2

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Paul Sorrento, Greg Walker

Name               Age   ERA   W   L   G GS   INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Matt Capps           24   3.40   7   5 90   0   90.0   89   34   9   15   68
Damaso Marte*        33   3.63   3   2 72   0   52.0   46   21   4   27   57
Salomon Torres         36   3.94   4   4 76   0   80.0   82   35   7   29   56
LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.15———————————————————————-
Tom Gorzelanny*        25   4.16 11 10 30 30   184.0 193   85 17   61 128
David Davidson*        24   4.16   3   3 49   0   80.0   79   37   7   36   60
Brian Rogers         25   4.44   2   3 57   0   79.0   82   39 10   26   63
Jesse Chavez         24   4.45   4   5 53   1   91.0 101   45   8   27   61
Ian Snell           26   4.48 10 11 32 30   191.0 202   95 27   62 157
AVERAGE STARTER———————4.55———————————————————————-
Zach Duke*          25   4.60 10 12 30 29   182.0 214   93 17   50   98
Franquelis Osoria       26   4.61   4   5 63   0   82.0   94   42   8   26   41
John Grabow*          29   4.65   2   3 70   0   62.0   65   32   8   25   51
Paul Maholm*          26   4.89   8 12 29 29   175.0 198   95 21   62 108
Shawn Chacon         30   4.91   6   8 41 17   121.0 130   66 15   62   78
Matt Morris           33   4.98   9 13 30 30   188.0 222 104 21   60 106
Bryan Bullington       27   5.01   7 12 26 24   142.0 163   79 17   50   72
Bret Prinz           31   5.08   1   1 33   0   39.0   43   22   6   17   24
Mark Corey           33   5.08   3   5 46   1   62.0   70   35   7   29   42
John Wasdin           35   5.14   4   7 30 13   105.0 121   60 16   33   71
Shane Youman*        28   5.15   6 10 34 17   131.0 153   75 14   52   66
Josh Sharpless         27   5.35   3   4 51   0   69.0   74   41 11   34   54
Juan Perez           27   5.42   1   3 59   0   78.0   87   47 10   40   53
Michael Tejera*        31   5.43   4   8 32 14   106.0 124   64 16   42   54
Jonah Bayliss         27   5.45   3   6 56   0   71.0   76   43 11   34   56
John van Benschoten     28   5.50   7 14 27 25   131.0 149   80 15   68   75
Tony Armas Jr.        30   5.63   5 10 28 22   120.0 139   75 19   53   73
Josh Shortslef*        26   5.64   6 11 24 24   134.0 165   84 17   46   6
Romulo Sanchez         24   5.92   2   6 53   1   76.0   90   50 15   31   45
Yoslan Herrera         27   5.98   5 11 26 26   131.0 172   87 18   34   51
Wardell Starling       25   6.04   5 13 30 24   143.0 180   96 24   53   64
Sean Burnett*        25   6.14   4 11 22 22   110.0 140   75 14   47   38
Dewon Brazelton       28   6.18   4   9 22 16   102.0 126   70 16   45   52
Jason Roach           32   6.37   3 10 31 18   123.0 158   87 20   43   47
Matt Peterson         26   6.41   3 10 37 16   118.0 145   84 23   59   61
Kevin Gryboski         34   6.58   2   5 48   0   52.0   68   38   7   29   22

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Ian Snell
              ERA   W   L   G GS INN   H   ER HR   BB   K
Optimistic (15%)  3.44 14   9 34 34 220 205   84 22   62 205
Mean           4.48 10 11 32 30 191 202   95 27   62 157          
Pessimistic (15%)  5.53   6 12 27 25 153 179   94 27   60 114

Top Near-Age Comps:  Lynn McGlothen, Bob Welch

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. 
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008. 
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. 
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason. 

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

Dan Szymborski Posted: October 17, 2007 at 06:15 PM | 73 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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