2008 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates

Not the prettiest projections in the world, but did anyone really expect otherwise?  It’s unfair to put any blame on the recently hired Frank Coonelly, but considering how competitive baseball is, this seems pretty much what one should expect from a team that places far more importance on maximizing their corporate welfare dole than maximizing anything positive that’s baseball-related.

A few unexpected question marks have arisen since the end of 2006 - while the Pirates have to be happy that Gorzelanny and Snell were solid pitchers, I don’t think they wanted to be answering question marks about the play of Jason Bay or Zach Duke right now.  Again, I really want to give Coonelly a chance, but it’s hard to give the organization as a whole the benefit of the doubt given the mismanagement from top to bottom, to injury management to coaching to a lack of a coherent plan centered on winning games of baseball.  Littlefield may be gone, but I don’t think that’ll be enough as long as the surname “Nutting” appears in the chain of command.

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS 

Jason Bay                lf  29  .265  .361  .478 154 565  92 150 32  2 28  89  81 149  9  0 

Josh Phelps              1b  30  .292  .352  .483 115 373  35 109 22  2 15  57  30  89  2  1

AVERAGE 1B——————- 1b——.284  .359  .470—————————————————————

Adam LaRoche*            1b  28  .272  .348  .492 148 514  75 140 38  0 25  84  58 115  0  2

AVERAGE LF——————- lf——.282  .351  .448—————————————————————

Ryan Doumit#             c   27  .276  .344  .463 107 322  45  89 22  1 12  47  26  73  1  3

AVERAGE RF——————- rf——.282  .348  .450—————————————————————

AVERAGE 3B——————- 3b——.279  .345  .445—————————————————————

Steven Pearce            1b  25  .267  .324  .462 139 472  55 126 37  2 17  70  35  86  7  5

AVERAGE CF——————- cf——.276  .338  .442—————————————————————

AVERAGE 2B——————- 2b——.281  .339  .411—————————————————————

Freddy Sanchez           2b  30  .298  .340  .415 146 557  71 166 40  2  7  66  31  58  0  2

Xavier Nady              rf  29  .259  .319  .449 117 390  50 101 21  1 17  64  25  92  1  0 

Nate McLouth*            cf  26  .259  .329  .415 138 378  67  98 22  2 11  34  35  74 17  3

Jose Bautista            3b  27  .249  .329  .415 146 523  71 130 32  2 17  62  57 113  4  3 

Kevin Thompson           cf  28  .252  .335  .404 112 381  54  96 26  4  8  40  45  81 15  7 

AVERAGE SS——————- ss——.279  .332  .404—————————————————————

AVERAGE C———————- c——.263  .322  .397—————————————————————

Adam Boeve               rf  28  .245  .326  .372 111 363  40  89 17  1  9  38  38 116 11  5 

Chris Duffy*             cf  28  .267  .319  .372  92 333  49  89 15  4  4  27  20  65 14  5 

Ronny Paulino            c   27  .263  .321  .366 128 437  48 115 21  0  8  46  36  80  1  1 

Yurendell de Caster      1b  28  .251  .325  .376 114 378  33  95 21  1  8  39  37  92  5  6 

Russ Johnson             3b  35  .241  .329  .359  88 290  29  70 17  1  5  25  37  42  1  2 

Jose Castillo            2b  27  .259  .307  .382 119 398  44 103 20  1  9  48  25  74  2  2 

Brian Bixler             ss  25  .257  .322  .345 128 455  58 117 22  3  4  35  33 125 14  5 

Jack Wilson              ss  30  .261  .313  .361 141 518  62 135 24  2  8  42  36  54  2  4 

Mike Ryan*               lf  30  .237  .284  .383 105 316  27  75 15  2  9  33  21  78  0  1 

Chris Aguila             rf  29  .255  .297  .359  92 259  28  66 13  1  4  26  15  60  3  2 

Brad Eldred              1b  27  .211  .264  .423 104 355  37  75 16  1 19  46  21 119  4  2 

Andrew McCutchen         cf  21  .239  .293  .347 126 461  52 110 21  1  9  40  33 100 12  5 

Shelby Ford#             2b  23  .236  .293  .340  82 297  38  70 18  2  3  29  16  69  5  2 

Neil Walker#             3b  22  .229  .291  .343 122 420  48  96 22  1  8  39  35  77  5  3 

Nyjer Morgan*            cf  27  .264  .319  .326  93 341  50  90 10  4  1  19  21  60 24 14 

Luis Ordaz               2b  32  .259  .291  .333  70 228  20  59 12  1  1  18  10  37  3  2 

Cesar Izturis#           ss  28  .252  .296  .318  95 330  31  83 17  1  1  21  19  24  4  4 

Javier Guzman            ss  24  .250  .285  .334 107 380  39  95 16  2  4  28  16  56  7  5 

Peter Bergeron*          cf  30  .234  .295  .322  94 329  36  77 15  1  4  23  27  67  3  5 

Tripper Johnson          3b  26  .221  .283  .324 121 420  42  93 23  1  6  38  33  74  5  3 

Carlos Maldonado         c   29  .217  .284  .307  80 244  18  53 10  0  4  23  21  60  0  0 

Jason Bowers             2b  32  .210  .279  .290  89 290  24  61 15  1  2  22  24  47  6  3 

David Parrish            c   29  .214  .270  .293  72 229  19  49  9  0  3  20  16  54  0  0 

Jose Hernandez           3b  38  .212  .265  .306  89 255  20  54  9  0  5  27  16  75  0  1 

Einar Diaz               c   35  .202  .251  .276  54 163  12  33  9  0  1  15   8  17  1  1 

* - Bats Left

# = Switch-Hitter

Name               CThr 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf 

Bay                                 Fr       

Phelps             Pr   Fr                   

LaRoche*                Vg                   

Doumit#            Pr   Av                Pr 

Pearce                  Av                Av 

Sanchez                    Fr Vg Fr          

Nady                    Av          Av Pr Av 

McLouth*                            Vg Av Vg 

Bautista                      Pr    Fr Pr Pr 

Thompson                            Av Fr Av 

Boeve                               Fr    Fr 

Duffy*                                 Vg    

Paulino            Av                        

de Caster               Vg Pr Fr    Fr    Fr 

Johnson                 Av Fr Av             

Castillo                   Pr Av Pr          

Bixler                     Av    Av          

Wilson                           Av          

Ryan*                               Av    Fr 

Aguila                              Av Fr Fr 

Eldred                  Av                Pr 

McCutchen                           Vg Vg    

Ford#                      Av                

Walker#            Av         Fr             

Morgan*                             Vg Vg    

Ordaz                      Vg    Fr          

Izturis#                   Av Vg Av          

Guzman                     Av    Fr Av Av    

Bergeron*                           Av Fr Av 

Johnson                       Fr             

Maldonado          Av                        

Bowers                     Av Av Fr          

Parrish            Av                        

Hernandez               Vg Fr Fr Fr Av Av Av 

Diaz               Av                        

Player Spotlight - Adam LaRoche

Name               AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS

Optimistic (15%)  .293  .374  .547 162 563  94 165 45  1 32 111  70 111  0  1 

Mean              .272  .348  .492 148 514  75 140 38  0 25  84  58 115  0  2   

Pessimistic (15%) .251  .319  .440 127 439  55 110 29  0 18  59  44 108  0  2 

Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Paul Sorrento, Greg Walker

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 

Matt Capps                24   3.40   7   5  90   0    90.0   89   34   9   15   68 

Damaso Marte*             33   3.63   3   2  72   0    52.0   46   21   4   27   57 

Salomon Torres            36   3.94   4   4  76   0    80.0   82   35   7   29   56

LEAGUE AVERAGE RELIEVER———4.15———————————————————————- 

Tom Gorzelanny*           25   4.16  11  10  30  30   184.0  193   85  17   61  128 

David Davidson*           24   4.16   3   3  49   0    80.0   79   37   7   36   60 

Brian Rogers              25   4.44   2   3  57   0    79.0   82   39  10   26   63 

Jesse Chavez              24   4.45   4   5  53   1    91.0  101   45   8   27   61 

Ian Snell                 26   4.48  10  11  32  30   191.0  202   95  27   62  157 

AVERAGE STARTER———————4.55———————————————————————-

Zach Duke*                25   4.60  10  12  30  29   182.0  214   93  17   50   98 

Franquelis Osoria         26   4.61   4   5  63   0    82.0   94   42   8   26   41 

John Grabow*              29   4.65   2   3  70   0    62.0   65   32   8   25   51 

Paul Maholm*              26   4.89   8  12  29  29   175.0  198   95  21   62  108 

Shawn Chacon              30   4.91   6   8  41  17   121.0  130   66  15   62   78 

Matt Morris               33   4.98   9  13  30  30   188.0  222  104  21   60  106 

Bryan Bullington          27   5.01   7  12  26  24   142.0  163   79  17   50   72 

Bret Prinz                31   5.08   1   1  33   0    39.0   43   22   6   17   24 

Mark Corey                33   5.08   3   5  46   1    62.0   70   35   7   29   42 

John Wasdin               35   5.14   4   7  30  13   105.0  121   60  16   33   71 

Shane Youman*             28   5.15   6  10  34  17   131.0  153   75  14   52   66 

Josh Sharpless            27   5.35   3   4  51   0    69.0   74   41  11   34   54 

Juan Perez                27   5.42   1   3  59   0    78.0   87   47  10   40   53 

Michael Tejera*           31   5.43   4   8  32  14   106.0  124   64  16   42   54 

Jonah Bayliss             27   5.45   3   6  56   0    71.0   76   43  11   34   56 

John van Benschoten       28   5.50   7  14  27  25   131.0  149   80  15   68   75 

Tony Armas Jr.            30   5.63   5  10  28  22   120.0  139   75  19   53   73 

Josh Shortslef*           26   5.64   6  11  24  24   134.0  165   84  17   46    6 

Romulo Sanchez            24   5.92   2   6  53   1    76.0   90   50  15   31   45 

Yoslan Herrera            27   5.98   5  11  26  26   131.0  172   87  18   34   51 

Wardell Starling          25   6.04   5  13  30  24   143.0  180   96  24   53   64 

Sean Burnett*             25   6.14   4  11  22  22   110.0  140   75  14   47   38 

Dewon Brazelton           28   6.18   4   9  22  16   102.0  126   70  16   45   52 

Jason Roach               32   6.37   3  10  31  18   123.0  158   87  20   43   47 

Matt Peterson             26   6.41   3  10  37  16   118.0  145   84  23   59   61 

Kevin Gryboski            34   6.58   2   5  48   0    52.0   68   38   7   29   22 

* - Throws Left

Player Spotlight - Ian Snell

                    ERA   W   L   G  GS  INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K 

Optimistic (15%)   3.44  14   9  34  34  220  205   84  22   62  205

Mean               4.48  10  11  32  30  191  202   95  27   62  157                

Pessimistic (15%)  5.53   6  12  27  25  153  179   94  27   60  114 

Top Near-Age Comps:  Lynn McGlothen, Bob Welch

Disclaimer:  ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.  

Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - 

many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.  

ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up 

being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example.  Whether or not a player will play 

is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting 

the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.  

This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in

the offseason.  

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.