Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, November 19, 2007

Angels - Acquired Garland

Los Angeles Angels - Acquired P Jon Garland from the Chicago White Sox for SS Orlando Cabrera.

Dear Managers and Coaches,

Thank you for giving our league-average defensive shortstop a Gold Glove to enable us to continue our goal of putting together the deepest starting rotation in baseball.

Love,
Bill Stoneman
Angels GM

P.S. I’m actually Tony Reagins but nobody really knows who that is.

Good move for the Angels.  Cabrera’s at the absolute height of his value.  He’s not a terrible deal at $9 million, since he’s a decent shortstop, but he’s gone at the end of the season.  The only question is what they do now.  I think they’ll be another move at some point as one has to think that Ervin Santana or Joe Saunders are going to have to go at this point.  The first guess is that they use Erick Aybar at short, but that would be a mistake as I don’t think he’ll hit enough to make him worthwhile, at least at this point, and the team’s only sees Maicer Izturis as a shortstop in a pinch.  To completely make up a trade rumor that I’ve heard nothing about, perhaps the Angels will revive the Tejada rumors by cashing in Saunders and maybe Brandon Wood?

The White Sox are at a crossroads and I think they did the wrong thing here.  Picking up Cabrera would be a classic win-now move, but I don’t think they could afford giving up Garland in a win-now mode and this team still looks like the 4th best in the Central for 2008 and isn’t particularly young.  They have to decide whether to trade now for later or trade later for now, not simply rearranging their weaknesses.

If they move Uribe to 2nd, then they simply have a situation in which their 2nd baseman is even less acceptable offensively than he was at short and in which their 2nd-best defensive shortstop is the shortstop.

It’s amazing to me that Garland just turned 28.

2008 ZiPS Projection - Jon Garland
——————————————————————————————-
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Projection 14 11 32 32 211 226   96 19 50 110 4.09
——————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 17   9 34 34 233 232   89 17 47 130 3.44
Pes. (15%)  9 12 27 27 170 197   93 20 49 82 4.92
———————————————————————————————
Top Comps:  Danny Cox, Ned Garver

 

2008 ZiPS Projection - Orlando Cabrera
———————————————————————————————————-
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————-
Projection   591 91 163 31 1   8 70 47 59 18 .276 .329 .372
———————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%)  609 106 178 36 2 11 88 54 54 23 .292 .350 .412
Pes. (15%)  430 58 113 21 0   5 42 29 47   9 .263 .310 .347
———————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps: Rick Burleson, Bert Campaneris

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 19, 2007 at 07:19 PM | 27 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: November 19, 2007 at 08:02 PM (#2620203)
Trading Garland for ML-ready prospects or MLBers with just a year under their belts would've been a better idea, IMO.
   2. Shredder Posted: November 19, 2007 at 08:04 PM (#2620207)
and the team's only sees Maicer Izturis as a shortstop in a pinch
I'm curious what makes you think that. Cabrera has played all but 18 games at shortstop the last two years, and Izturis has played 13 of those. I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just saying that when one guy dominates the playing time at a premier position, it's tough to say what they think about the ability of one his backups to play the position.

Now, they might not think he's a premier shortstop, and you're probably right, which is while they'll try to move on Tejada. But Maicer's movement around the diamond appears to have had a lot more to do with Cabrera entrenchment than a lack of ability.
   3. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 19, 2007 at 08:29 PM (#2620249)
I've been under the impression that they didn't feel his arm was quite strong enough for short full-time. Am I mistaken?
   4. DCA Posted: November 19, 2007 at 08:34 PM (#2620266)
I've been under the impression that they didn't feel his arm was quite strong enough for short full-time. Am I mistaken?

He's played mostly at 3B since coming to the Angels, about a third of the team's innings there over the last three years ... it would seem to be odd if he couldn't throw enough to play SS.
   5. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: November 19, 2007 at 08:37 PM (#2620272)
Are Saunders and Wood enough of a return on Tejada? Some are downplaying Wood in the other thread. I'd like to see the O's get Santana.
   6. Kyle S Posted: November 19, 2007 at 08:48 PM (#2620293)
Interesting to see two shortstops coming off good hitting years, each with one year left under contract, traded to AL Central teams. Who'd you rather have, The OC or I Don't Practice RenterĂ­a? Who'd you rather get, Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez or Jon Garland?
   7. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 19, 2007 at 08:54 PM (#2620307)
He's played mostly at 3B since coming to the Angels, about a third of the team's innings there over the last three years ... it would seem to be odd if he couldn't throw enough to play SS.

Quickie demonstration of SS vs. 3B arm strength.
   8. Shredder Posted: November 19, 2007 at 09:03 PM (#2620325)
If David Eckstein could play serviceable short (actually, pretty good at that time according to UZR), then I think Maicer's arm is good enough.
   9. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 19, 2007 at 09:05 PM (#2620332)
I'm not saying Maicer's arm isn't strong enough, I'm saying I was under the impression the Angels didn't think so - you guys can correct me if I've got a mistaken impression. I'd go into 2008 with Izturis at short, too.
   10. bhoov Posted: November 19, 2007 at 09:09 PM (#2620340)
Uribe has lost a step as his girth has continued to increase. Fan's ratings, UZR and PMR all concur with that. Both PMR and UZR have Cabrera as the better fielder this past year. Richar is likely to be at least the left-handed part of a 2nd base platoon. Uribe will either be a utility infielder or gone.
   11. Ignatius J. Reilly Posted: November 19, 2007 at 09:11 PM (#2620344)
Didn't the White Sox reject Renteria and Matt Harrison for Garland at the deadline last July?
   12. Petro Posted: November 19, 2007 at 09:13 PM (#2620348)
What about Sean Rodriguez for SS?
   13. AJMcCringleberry Posted: November 19, 2007 at 09:18 PM (#2620362)
Quickie demonstration of SS vs. 3B arm strength.

Ha!
   14. AROM Posted: November 19, 2007 at 09:21 PM (#2620368)
What about Sean Rodriguez for SS?


For the Salt Lake B's? Yes. He's not ready for the majors though.

I'm not saying Maicer's arm isn't strong enough, I'm saying I was under the impression the Angels didn't think so


This is the team that made Eckstein a shortstop. Seriously, I've never heard anything about Izturis not being able to play there. Its just they had a more established player at the position who was really durable.
   15. Shredder Posted: November 19, 2007 at 09:27 PM (#2620377)
I don't have a particular impression either way. It would surprise me somewhat if the Angels thought that. But the fact that he seems to have played the majority of the few games that Cabrera missed is a sign that they thought he could handle it at least in short stretch. For all I know, without digging deep into the detail, he may have played there more often, but he's spent some time on the DL. His time and OC's time may have overlapped.
   16. zonk Posted: November 20, 2007 at 02:47 PM (#2621057)
Jon Garland reminds me of Rick Mahler for some reason.
   17. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 20, 2007 at 02:51 PM (#2621061)
Jon Garland reminds me of Rick Mahler for some reason.

When I think of Jon Garland, I think of the Nintendo bad guy of the same surname.
   18. Mike Green Posted: November 20, 2007 at 03:38 PM (#2621112)
I'll take the "way over" on that Garland projection, Alex. Personally, I think it's 50-50 whether he beats the pessimistic projection of his ERA, and my hunch is that he doesn't.
   19. Harmon "Thread Killer" Microbrew Posted: November 20, 2007 at 03:51 PM (#2621127)
I'll take the "way over" on that Garland projection, Alex. Personally, I think it's 50-50 whether he beats the pessimistic projection of his ERA, and my hunch is that he doesn't


Because.....?
   20. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: November 20, 2007 at 03:58 PM (#2621140)
My take. Copied and pasted vitually en masse from a post over at primer.
   21. Excel Hearts Choi Posted: November 20, 2007 at 04:11 PM (#2621147)
Rosenthal is reporting that the Angels are sending over $1.5 million in the deal. So, they have saved $4.5 million in this trade. The White Sox obviously have their eyes set on some free agent.
   22. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 20, 2007 at 04:16 PM (#2621151)
What about Sean Rodriguez for SS?


I agree with AROM that he's not ready for the majors, and I'm not even sure he's ready for AAA yet. The Angels have touted Rodriguez for a long time, but I don't like the strikeouts, I have doubts about whether he'll hit, and he spent some time at 3B in the AFL (although Surprise also had Elvis Andrus and German Duran on the roster, so someone had to move somewhere).

-- MWE
   23. Mike Green Posted: November 20, 2007 at 04:59 PM (#2621195)
...because Garland doesn't strike out many (and his K rate is declining), doesn't walk many, and gives up line drives by the bucketful, he is disproportionately affected by changes in his defence. The decline from Uribe/Crede to Izturis/Figgins is going to really hurt him. That combined with a return to average HR/fly rates makes a sub-4.90 ERA a 50-50 proposition. Garland, 2008 is the prototype season for the implosion due to loss of confidence.

It is extremely difficult for a starter to sustain success with a K rate less than 2/3 of league average. The successful comps, which Chris referred to in his study (Gullickson, John), were much closer to league average than Garland was. Even Suppan was much closer to league average.
   24. KDub's CellPiece (BLtDH) Posted: November 20, 2007 at 07:02 PM (#2621423)
It's worth noting that Crede played very little last year...and the Sox defense in 2007 was average at many positions.
   25. Mike Green Posted: November 20, 2007 at 07:16 PM (#2621437)
Crede played in April/May of 2007, and Garland had an ERA under 4 in those months with only one unearned run. His ERA rose and he allowed 15 unearned runs in the four months after Josh Fields took over.

Part of the reason for the projection is Garland's fine 2005 season. The Sox defence that year was spectacular, and Garland was probably the pitcher who benefited the most from it.
   26. Bad Doctor Posted: November 21, 2007 at 05:58 PM (#2622699)
Quickie demonstration of SS vs. 3B arm strength.

The Jeter plot point needs a Z axis to show off that impressive jump throw.
   27. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: November 22, 2007 at 01:24 AM (#2623092)
Sean Rodriguez's K's are a concern, but I'm at least as concerned by his inconsistent walk rate (though it was acceptable in 2007, he didn't really draw any for much of the early going in 2006). This is a guy whose production thrives on secondary average -- he's unlikely to hit better than .250, even at his peak. I'm cautiously optimistic due to his age, and despite everything he did manage a 113 OPS+ in the Texas League last year while being young for the league, but he's not going to be a star.

I'd like to see him in CF.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
The Ghost fouled out, but stays in the game
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats

 

 

 

 

Page rendered in 0.6320 seconds
66 querie(s) executed