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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Sunday, December 04, 2005

Angels - Signed Carrasco

Los Angeles Angels - Signed P Hector Carrasco to 2-year contract worth $6.1 million.

Carrasco was really good last year as he was pretty healthy for the first time in a long time.  He’ll continue to be a pretty good reliever if healthy.  Problem is, the Angels are making noises about making him a starter full-time (the Nats wanted to do it if they had been able to sign him as well).  He may pitch well as a starter, but when you just signed a 37-year-old injury-prone pitcher to a 2-year contract, do you really want to start moving him to the rotation considering he’s thrown 100 innings once in his career, more than a decade ago?  If the Angels can bring Paul Byrd back after all or get another starter, this has the potential to be a decent signing, but I think that they’ll be disappointed with their return if he’s a starter full-time.

2006 ZiPS Projection - Hector Carrasco
———————————————————————-
W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
———————————————————————-
5   5 53   4   89   73   39   7 44 76 3.94

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 04, 2005 at 04:22 PM | 32 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. rory_b_bellows Posted: December 04, 2005 at 08:35 PM (#1759825)
Ugh, just horrible. What could possess a GM to sign Hector Carrasco for two years at $3m a year? Just baffling. Then you read that supposedly the Yankees lost $100m last year. I think it's signings like this one that makes everyone doubt the owners, because if you were losing money, why the hell would you throw $6 million away on Hector Carrasco.
   2. Halofan Posted: December 04, 2005 at 09:35 PM (#1759968)
What a croc - had Billy Beane done this exact signing the puddles of worshipful mandrool would be drowning half this site's readership.

It is a mild economic gamble with a huge upside of Carrasco performs like many a post-Tommy John survivor/thriver. Carrasco at 3-Mil for 2 versus Loaiza at 7-Mil for 3?

PUH - leeeeez...
   3. 1k5v3L Posted: December 04, 2005 at 09:37 PM (#1759972)
carrasco was big in japan in 04. you just can't put value on that.

when was loaiza big anywhere except for benicio del torro movie? huh? huh?
   4. Super Creepy Derek Lowe (GGC) Posted: December 04, 2005 at 10:00 PM (#1760019)
I had to look this guy up on bbref. I didn't even remeber him being on the Red Sox, but I love his full name: Hector Pacheco Pipo Carrasco Pacheco.
   5. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: December 04, 2005 at 10:00 PM (#1760020)
What a croc - had Billy Beane done this exact signing the puddles of worshipful mandrool would be drowning half this site's readership.


Ahh. The "Beane Man Drool" defense. Does that make you feel better? Huh? Glad to get that off your chest? Do you have some "Bonds Fanboy" anger to vent too?
   6. The District Attorney Posted: December 04, 2005 at 10:13 PM (#1760050)
Since when does Tommy John surgery take 36-year-olds who have posted an ERA under 4 once in nine years, and turn them into consistently good pitchers?
   7. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 04, 2005 at 10:19 PM (#1760066)
Yeah, it's kind of a wierd thing; most of Carrasco's seasons have been not so good, but his career ERA+ is 113, with a K rate of 7.2 that backs it up. If a Leo Mazzone coached team had made this pick up, I'd be convinced that it was getting an average-or-better starter.

Now that the Indians have, according to Rosenthal, nailed down Byrd for 2/$14m, I have to ask why the Angels wouldn't do that? It's not like they couldn't.
   8. Artie Ziff Posted: December 04, 2005 at 10:23 PM (#1760075)
With the Furcal signing all but official, signing a dependable reliever is very helpful. His career stats look somewhat worthy of $3,000,000 per season. The West might be fun again this year with most teams contending.
   9. Darren Posted: December 04, 2005 at 10:31 PM (#1760098)
Hey, if 6 innings of Hector Carrasco is worth 6 cheap years of Lew Ford, then this deal is a steal!

(I really don't think it's too bad. $3 mil is a small risk and he's been performing okay.)
   10. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 04, 2005 at 10:39 PM (#1760109)
Well, that's the other thing. You wouldn't think $3 million a year mattered to the Angels, but it apparently made them have to do this in the first place. If they have a poor year in the rotation or it's decimated by injuries, Stoneman's going to have some explaining to do.
   11. Super Creepy Derek Lowe (GGC) Posted: December 04, 2005 at 10:40 PM (#1760114)
Hey, if 6 innings of Hector Carrasco is worth 6 cheap years of Lew Ford, then this deal is a steal!


Yeah, I noticed that on Carrasco's bbref page. Worse deal for the Red Sox back then than the Sprague-Tankersley one so far. I think that I almost defected from the SOx after that season for various reasons.
   12. Craig in MN Posted: December 04, 2005 at 11:05 PM (#1760152)
most of Carrasco's seasons have been not so good, but his career ERA+ is 113, with a K rate of 7.2 that backs it up.

Prior to last year, his WHIP was 1.48 (and his ERA+ was much closer to 100). He's never been that good, and I think there a reason so many teams have let him walk. Maybe he's turned something around, but I doubt it. And even mentioning him as a starter when he has started 6 games in his 10 year career, with 5 coming at the end of last season, is crazy.

His R/ER ratio seems a little suspicious to me. A few extra lucky unearned runs could influence his ERA+.
   13. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: December 04, 2005 at 11:51 PM (#1760284)
I'm intrigued, if only because Stoneman's shown an ability to pick out some real gems from the hazardous waste pile of pitching talent. For the most part, it's just been with relievers. But if he has a good feeling about Carrasco as a starter, $6M isn't too much to play a hunch.

Either that, or he just signed him to mock Beane's signing of Loaiza. Both are probably equally likely.
   14. smileyy Posted: December 05, 2005 at 12:17 AM (#1760330)

Since when does Tommy John surgery take 36-year-olds who have posted an ERA under 4 once in nine years, and turn them into consistently good pitchers?


Sometimes it gets their arms into the best shape they've been in in their major league career.
   15. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: December 05, 2005 at 12:30 AM (#1760362)
There has been talk that Carrasco learned a new pitch last year. Anyone know anything about that?
   16. Darren Posted: December 05, 2005 at 01:08 AM (#1760497)
You throw a snot ball?
   17. The District Attorney Posted: December 05, 2005 at 01:18 AM (#1760529)
You can come back from TJ surgery as good or a little better than you were before... but I don't think it's gonna turn you all the way from "bad" to "good" at the age of 36. It's not a bionic implant.
   18. Craig in MN Posted: December 05, 2005 at 01:21 AM (#1760537)
I saw this on MLBtraderumors.com:

Carrasco had the lowest batting average with balls in play among any pitcher with at least 80 innings in 2005 - .236. Given that the typical BABIP is more like .300, Carrasco's luck is likely to run out.
   19. grich Posted: December 05, 2005 at 01:59 AM (#1760675)
Re: post 13, Stoneman might be good at picking up some gems but he's also good at letting go of even better ones: Turnbow, Jenks, and now Joel Peralta. Speaking of drool, can you imagine a Wild Boys for the new millenia?

Francisco Rodriguez
Scot Shields
Brendan Donnelly
Bobby Jenks
Derek Turnbow
   20. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: December 05, 2005 at 02:28 AM (#1760739)
Relievers Bill Stoneman has let go in the last couple seasons:

Bobby Jenks
Derrick Turnbow
Matt Wise
Steve Andrade (FREE STEVE ANDRADE)
Joel Peralta

Relievers Bill Stoneman has signed the last couple seasons:

Esteban Yan
Jason Christiansen
Hector Carrasco (maybe)

Who will be better the next two seasons, Joel Peralta or Hector Carrasco? Depends on whether or not Hector makes it in the rotation, in part ...
   21. Snowboy Posted: December 05, 2005 at 04:08 AM (#1761006)
Los Angeles Angels - Signed P Hector Carrasco to 2-year contract worth $6.1 million.

You misspelled "a minor league contract, with an invitation to spring training."
   22. Walt Davis Posted: December 05, 2005 at 04:58 AM (#1761095)
My mind is boggled.

It's not a lot of money so it won't matter in the long-run. But I guy who pitched 38 innings between 2002 and 2004. Who's 36 years old? Who's never made more than $800 K in a season (according to b-r)? Who's making nearly as much in one year as he has in his whole career? I'm not sure he's ever had a multi-year contract.

He does have a decent K-rate ... and a lousy BB rate and K/BB rate. HR rate is good. WP rate appears to be of historic proportions (about 1 per 9 innings, even Matt Clement can't touch that -- Carrasco finished 2nd in the league in # of wp in 1995 and 4th in 2000). Not that I've ever considered wp rate an important factor, it just jumped out at me.

It's just hard to see how this guy rates a 2/$6 M contract. Sure, it could work out, but what leverage does Carrasco have to deserve this kind of contract? Maybe something with incentives that would take it to $6M.

Dan, are those ZIPS based on anything other than his 125 IP over the last 4 years? If not, have you regressed it more heavily towards the mean? My quickie guesstimate is that ZIPS has him projected to about a 260 BABIP.
   23. Darren Posted: December 05, 2005 at 05:04 AM (#1761103)
But I guy who pitched 38 innings between 2002 and 2004.

But didn't I guy pitch in Japan in 2003?
   24. Halofan Posted: December 05, 2005 at 05:33 AM (#1761143)
This thread has more conventional wisdom than a Peter Gammons debriefing.
   25. DiggerP Posted: December 05, 2005 at 04:47 PM (#1761528)
The folks here in DC have been looking at this as another example of how their hands are tied because the Nats don't have an owner. If I'm not mistaken, the Nats get the Angels #1 pick on top of it all. At this rate, the Nats will be better off without an owner.
   26. AROM Posted: December 05, 2005 at 05:11 PM (#1761568)
Carrasco a type A or B? How the F did that happen?

At least Angels will get a #1 from Cleveland for Byrdman...Unless the tribe gets Hoffman and sends the pick to SD instead.
   27. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 05, 2005 at 06:00 PM (#1761644)
The only part that really surprises me is the bit where they didn't wait a week to sign him. I'm not sure he would've been offered arb.

If worst comes to worst, the Halos can always put Shields back in the rotation.
   28. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 05, 2005 at 10:52 PM (#1762396)
But they never will. In 2004, their rotation was just crying for Shields, but it never happened.
   29. grich Posted: December 06, 2005 at 05:25 AM (#1763129)
Personally I'd like to see an Escobar-Shields swap in roles. Escobar seems to do well not pitching too many innings and Shields seem to do well not pitching as frequently, so perhaps they'd be better suited in eachother's roles?
   30. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 07, 2005 at 09:29 AM (#1765196)
Carrasco looked absolutely unhittable at times last year. He's always had good stuff (see post #7). It's only $3 million a year, I think this is a great signing. Digger - he can't be a type A free agent, can he?
   31. NTNgod Posted: December 07, 2005 at 09:32 AM (#1765198)
Digger - he can't be a type A free agent, can he?

No, he's a type B.
   32. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 07, 2005 at 09:35 AM (#1765199)
"And even mentioning him as a starter when he has started 6 games in his 10 year career, with 5 coming at the end of last season, is crazy."

Except that he looked great in those 5 starts, and it was after a whole season of relieving, which means he was probably tired and that point and still pitched great as a starter. Anyone who saw him regularly in Washington last year would have to tell you something clicked, he's become a very good pitcher.

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